 Welcome to the weather forecast for the week. Oh, should be weeks beginning Wednesday, August 3rd. That was last time 2022 I'm chief meteorologist John insworth for Longmont public media Yep getting back in the groove and swing of things back in my normal studio Friday August 5th will be our first quarter moon. I think I had it off a little bit in the last video Solar TVs pretty quiet. We got one Sunspot kind of pointing at Earth right now So we're a little bit under the gun but Mostly tranquil Solar surface looking at drought for the last couple weeks We see nothing really changing in the western side. We see drought on the plains right into Longmont get a little worse So we're on the edge of severe drought and moderate drought for Longmont We definitely need some more direct hits from some waves of rain, but that's coming You can look nationally stuff on the southern plains with all the heat has definitely gotten Significantly worse and the monsoonal flow that just won't quit this year is Eating weight at drought in Arizona getting them as good as they've been in years Look at precipitation This doesn't show up yet in the drought data, but definitely the Northeast Plains got some good amounts of two inches in greater Four corners area down here got really dumped on well also in a lot of the high mountain locations got nice rain Almost everybody got a little something. Longmont kind of got mixed or nixed right there Think you'll look at our severe weather animation I'll keep this going into October because it's kind of fun to watch the climatology of it But starting back at the last week of March, you can see into April Severe weather chances increased across the nation. We're into June now It was the first second third. That's weird a fourth week of July. I looked nuts What the data really was going from the fourth week of July? We still have elevated chances of Severe weather and it backs off just a little bit in the first week of August So not out of the woods severe weather is still possible Looking at the next three days because that's all they do unless it's really a significant event We have just a chance of general thunderstorms except out on the Eastern Plains for Wednesday Thursday pretty much statewide has a chance of thunderstorms and the same with Friday Even though it's going to be pretty dry and very hot I get the surface Analysis we have a cold front coming down and we'll see this in the model data, too I'm at the Great Plains when you have that you get some severe weather up ahead of it We just have our general mountain storm chances for Thursday. We have Mountains and southern southwestern part of the state has chance of rain thunderstorms with some Heavy rain flash flooding possible here in Northern Arizona and the next go Eastern Arizona and then Western Colorado gets into the heavy rain possibilities for Friday while the Eastern Plains kind of bake Looking at smoke We have a number of fires out here in the west and that smoke is largely going past us to the north It's really nasty up here, but we are getting some backing down and drifting down in so we are getting air quality advisories and Some haze and from the mountains and that's where that's coming from. We do not have any ignition sources here In the four corners states Look at the next 10 days in the ensemble. Our high temperature max Is now dropping from 90 down to 88 89 at the beginning of this period and nighttime temperatures dropping from its peak at 60 down to 59 See temperatures largely stay in there except here at the Thursday Friday Spot where it's also drier, but the weekend definitely looks pretty stormy Next week starts kind of dry later in the week as I hit the storms come back again It's where that moisture plume goes So we're going to take a look at that moisture plume right now the highest center near the four corners a little bit It's the West that's sinking air over Colorado being as close to the high It also means that the moisture is having to travel further to get over here some notable upper air and synoptic map Moments in the next week. I'll take a look at Friday when we have the real heat. We have Sorry about that This was quiet, but we have southerly flow just starting to come back with a high moving from four corners up into Kansas that is the severe Heat we're gonna see probably 100 degrees or so Looking Saturday the high drifts off to the east and now it opens up the flow to bring moisture in And that moisture becomes really abundant the green shading here is precipitable anomaly for water contented atmosphere, so we are way above normal for the amount of Water available for thunderstorms to turn into rain and dump on you Sunday morning. We have a cold front coming down. We'll see this in the animation as well There's a warm front heading up here and On Sunday the moisture flows even better Just coming out of the Gulf of California Pacific and Gulf of Mexico After that the high rebuilds in the west and we have a big ridge and the heat comes on again and the moisture again gets shunted off to the West so we get some of the moisture heading up here pooling in the Western states and so we're just heading off to the east on only southern Great Plains So let's take a look at the animation we Really big story is where's the ridge? And so we have the circulation right here of the center of the high pressure Into Friday. It's kind of right on top of us Then this trough starts to push it off to the east. It's out here in Kentucky area and we get our Stormy wet weekend. There's a big low rolling out here in the Pacific, but it keeps just stays right there as the high comes back on Wednesday And then looking a little bit later in the week that trough finally starts to push it into the ridge We can see the Gulf opening up again the flow from the south bringing that monsoon over us The most interesting thing here is to watch a big cold front the beginning coming down to the plains while we bake under the ridge Here comes our cold front and we'll further west Keep an eye on it as it comes down to the state really quickly. There it is and then Cutting a really sharp line Cold air for on through Monday not cold But cooler than normal and then he comes right back for Tuesday So this cool Anomaly down here is just due to the large amount of moisture Keeping the daytime highs from raising So the real map for this time of year that don't even bother to show in the winter is this Precipitatable water anomaly. So all the green is above normal. The blue is extremely high above normal So when you get a blob like that, you might have some flooding going on there It's going right over Yellowstone which had floods earlier. It's a big deep river right over us on Saturday, Sunday Monday Begins to get some dry air in here for Tuesday Wednesday Another gigantic blob going over Idaho and Montana Probably might be the remains of a tropical system. I'd have to zoom out and kind of track back There's a tropical system down here. And so later next week, you can see the rivers kind of back Just gonna take this through the weekend because you can see the afternoon widespread showers and Embedded thunderstorms for Friday. We're pretty dry everything is confined to the southern mountains and western slopes and for Saturday or low forms and Here comes the storms covered in northeast for the afternoon or these planes. They form again the mountains cover of the state again And then on Monday to Tuesday it dries out pretty quickly So for the next five days the mountains to do pretty well Pretty widespread inch amounts of water on the plains. It's not much, but it's it's There's some chances except here in the southeast The amount of precipitation for the next 10 days is pretty significant. That's some big bullseyes north of Durango Mountains do really well in the one to two to even three inch range So we start kind of cool Wednesday We shoot back up Thursday or Friday as The ridge builds and the next front is approaching which also helps to compress the air We probably will touch a hundred if not in long month places close by A couple cold fronts not goes down to 80s and then low 80s on Sunday Still low 80s on Monday with pretty good chances of showers and cloudy skies over the weekend Next week we start to warm up again and dry out It's the beginning of a new month, so we can take a look at what the weather surface is saying We haven't had a great track route with them But they do seem to have noticed that the monsoon has been going nuts and not giving up and so now they have Below normal temperatures in the center of that flow pretty much including us equal chances of above or below normal temperatures and Slightly above normal chances precipitation with much above normal over Arizona in Utah for corners area So for frequent weather updates local natives long not leader and bring field leader calm This has been chief me know just John is worth keep looking up