 So this video went a little bit longer than I intended. So I thought, let me just show you the results upfront. Of course, if you wanna know why they're in decimals and where I got my data from and what was the model process, why some are in green, others in orange and some even in red, then I encourage you to watch the video but this was the output of the model that we created for the Euro 2020. Hi everyone, it's MJ and in this video we're gonna try to build a model to predict the Euro 2020 soccer results and the very first game is actually tonight and yeah, I have had two beers already. It's Friday afternoon and this is probably not gonna be the most accurate model out there but I thought the games are coming soon. Let's have a go. So please don't base any betting or any serious money on this model but yeah, I thought it would just be be a little fun thing to do and make the tournament a little bit more interesting. I will maybe talk a little bit about models and some good principles behind them while we go along. So hopefully it'll be somewhat educational. So yeah, first things first, you can kinda see I'm just using a single spreadsheet just throwing everything out there. What I've done is the data for this model is I've used the European qualification games. So some of the games had, they played eight and the other games they played 10. So I couldn't just use goals for and goals against and use that I had to adjust for the amount of games. So this was the data that I was using just got that off the inside. Like I say, these are the games that they played. I could have included like the friendly games. I could have included more data going back but with data you always want to balance relevance and credible. So look, we're basing this on just eight or 10 matches. Isn't a lot but I know with national teams, the further back you go, the teams are very different. Also when it's a friendlies, they're trying different things out. So I'm hoping that this is the most relevant data. Of course, this credibility is a little bit lacking because we have such few amount of data points. But now I want to click hide. So what we can do here is straight away we can see, let's also maybe make it a little bit easier to read. Here we can see what are the teams scoring rates or how often do they score a goal or how many goals they're scoring in a match and how many goals that they're conceding. And we're doing a very simple model. We simply gonna take the amount of goals that they score versus the opponents conceding rate, average those two together and then do the reverse with the opponent team to get a score for each of them and then whichever scores higher that is then the winning team. Of course, it's not perfect because we know scoring a goal against Belgium should count a lot more than scoring a goal against a team like say Latvia. So there are some of those nuances and you could subjectively add a little bit more weighting. There is a way to mathematically assign weighting and I don't know if you guys ever, no I don't think I ever told you guys. I had a YouTube channel called Odd Actress where we tried to predict, I think it was the 2016. Is it 2016? Yeah, no, the 2014, whenever these World Cups were, the one that was in Brazil, like I said, it's Friday and I have been relaxing the whole today. So might not be fully focused but and that's good, like I said, don't use this model to gamble with. But Joe, we had a thing called Odd Actress where we try to predict the soccer results for the World Cup and we use quite a fancy model that tried to assign different weighting to different goals. It's very effective in a league format. So like the English Premier League, the results were very promising. However, when you take it to a national tournament, things do start to go a little bit crazy. Like I say, I think it's just because of the poor data. So just bear in mind the data isn't the best but I'm gonna show you how we can do it. So the very first match, it's Turkey versus Italy. So what essentially we're gonna do is we're gonna take Turkey's scoring rate and how we basically do it as simple as this. So these are the goals that Turkey are gonna score and we add this to the amount of goals that Italy normally concedes and then we simply divide this by two and I can see this thing wants to like orderful but I don't think it's matching or I mean, you could do a very sophisticated VLOOKUP type of index thing but we're just gonna do it by brute force. So the idea is that Turkey is expected to score 1.1 goal versus Italy and let's just put this in the middle. Italy, like I say, we do, Italy normally scores 3.7 goals, which is high. I mean, that's quite high. Turkey, however, concedes less goals than Italy but I think with that high goal rate means Italy, according to this model, is going to win the match. So yeah, we can see that it's gonna be two goals for Italy, 1.1 for Turkey. Of course, we're gonna be rounding those numbers because you don't score 1.1 and essentially, yeah. So with Italy, we would say that Italy wins that game, loses that game and I mean, you could even start doing this whole kind of thing. This is actually gonna take a lot if we do it for all the tables. So let's rather focus on the matches. I think let's not, let's hide this. Otherwise, this video's gonna take forever. So let's just hide that column. Okay, hide columns. You guys can work it out to who was better. Wales versus Switzerland. So essentially we take Wales, this is their score rate. We plus Switzerland's concede rate and we come over here and we divide it by two. There's gonna be one goal that Wales is gonna be scoring and Switzerland, we see that this is their score rate plus the Welsh defending and we now divide that by two and we have 1.5. So you can see in this type of situation, so I see I used the right, yeah. In this type of situation, you could round these up and I mean, rounding up is as simple as doing this. Oops, wrong one. So you can just have it to one decimal place and these are the expected scores. Now, with a lot of these type of models, the fact that these are gonna be the actual scores is very, very low. I mean, models are basically always wrong. They always miss the mark. They're never like pinpoint accurate or if they are it's like a bit of a coincidence. But on average, they're kind of right. So they're a little bit wrong to the left, they're a little bit wrong to the right, but if you look at them in average, they're gonna be the closest thing. So with soccer, of course, there's a lot of football for people and other English people get quite upset when we refer to it as soccer. In South Africa, we refer to it as soccer because our league is the premium soccer league, the PSL. So whenever people in South Africa be like, oh, it's football. I'm like in South Africa, it's regarded as soccer. But I know, yeah, it's not, yeah, there's not to say too many people about that. What I am gonna do is just because otherwise this video is gonna be absolutely forever, I'm gonna pause the recording, complete all of these results and then resume back and actually just show you the results instead of you guys seeing me typing out on Excel. I don't think that's gonna be the most entertaining thing to watch. So yeah, let me pause the recording and then show you all the results. Okay, cool. So we used basically our data to get our results. Now I have, like I say, I rounded them off. If you come in like this, you can kind of maybe get a little bit of more information. So sometimes if it's gonna be a draw, you can use this to have a little bit of a victory. But let's maybe keep it on just one decimal and kind of compare. What I've also got on this side is what the bookies say. And what we can see is that the lowest payout is if Italy wins. And that's also what our model is saying as well. So I'm actually gonna make this green to basically indicate that we got the same as the betting guy. So we're thinking Italy two, Turkey one. I think most people would favor the Italians over the Turks. Wales and Switzerland, we are favoring Switzerland with our little model. And what we see here is, oh gosh, 31 divided by 10 is like three, that's like two. And that is the lowest one. So sometimes these odds are a little bit tricky to read. But yeah, that is favoring Switzerland as well. So once again, we've actually got to a good start that what we're favoring is the most likely outcome also according to the bookies. So let's now look at Denmark versus Finland. So our model is favoring the Danes over the Finns and gish, 911, that is huge. Which means yeah, they're also favoring Denmark. Which look at that. I mean, our model is picking the winner. Like I mean, to go into the actual scores, I mean, that's a little bit of superior accuracy. But let's see, we've got Belgium and Russia as a draw. I've got a feeling that the bookies are gonna favor the, yeah, they're definitely gonna favor Belgium over Russia. And yes, you can see that it's 10 to 13. I don't know why they've made it red if that's an indication or something. And look, I think if we were to reveal, and this is where, yeah, we've got it at 2.4 versus 1.8. I don't know, maybe we should keep it out like this. This does give us a little bit more information. And then I mean, we could always do the rounding ourselves. But no, I think soccer, no. We're gonna stick to the one decimal. We have, we are gonna go with the draw. That isn't what the betting guys are saying. So we're gonna red such a harsh color. So let's have this little red, yeah. We'll make it, yeah, that red over there. Okay, so we've got one wrong. But like I said, depending on how you look at the decimals, the decimals are, of course, in favor of Belgium. I think Belgium are ranked number one in the world. England, Croatia, we can see the odds of favoring England. We're also favoring England, three to one for Croatia. So our model is also good over there. Austria versus Macedonia. We're favoring Austria and looking at these odds, which you have to do calculations in your head. But they're also favoring Austria. So how the betting thing works is the lower those odds are, the more likely they are to win. That's kind of like your payout. So you're gonna get less if it's more likely to occur. Which means like there could be a potential, no, I'm not saying this, but that our Belgium versus Russia, you know, they've got a little tip there, maybe going on the draw, or I mean, those odds actually quite good for the Russians. But no, we're not giving gambling advice. We're not. This is an educational video for educational means. So Netherlands versus Ukraine. This one, again, they are favoring the Dutch. We have a two, two, and I'm, like I said, if we have a quick little, little cheeky look, we'll see, yeah, the Netherlands 1.8 to the Ukrainians 1.5. That means they just made a little bit else and they would have been down to one. But we're gonna stick with our model. Our model is different to the results. So we are going to color this in that ugly red color over there. So Scotland versus the Czech Republic. Ooh, 39 divided by 19 is, oh my gosh, I just wanna get a calculator. I think it is favoring Czech Republic, but let me just get a calculator. 39 divided by 19 is 2.05. 20 divided by 11 is 1.81. Okay, cool, yeah, so Czech Republic is the favored. We're also favoring them. So we're gonna give a little, we're gonna make our thing green. Is this quite close? The fact that those odds, those odds were very, very tight. 1.5 to 1.8, I mean, it's just the inverse of what the Netherlands, and you can see how much more they favored the Netherlands. We're here, I mean, it's 1.8, 1.8, 1.5, 1.5, and yet that betting there is so much closer on it. So I don't think they're, yeah, I think these models, they're definitely a lot for subjectiveness. I mean, I'm sure I'm gonna get tons of comments already, like, oh, this top player's injured, and therefore your data is irrelevant, and all these kind of things, where these odds, what's interesting, these odds are changing, and getting like a live update. So yeah, let's continue going through it. We have Poland and Slovakia. Let's get back to our little thing here. So we're favoring Poland against Slovakia, and yes, that is also the favor, 16 bottom, there we go. So we're good on that. Slovakia kind of like snuck into this tournament. I don't think they were top of their table, even second in their table. Spain versus Sweden. Ooh, am I gonna have to get the note? They're definitely favoring the Spanish. We're favoring the Spanish as well. So we got there. Hungary versus Portugal, and yeah, you can see there, they are also definitely favoring the Portuguese. To one, I think, yeah, if you had to show the things. I must stop doing this because I'm gonna make this video unnecessarily long. But yeah, I mean, 2.1 to 0.9. So that's quite a big gap that we're seeing here. It's not like we're rounding up to two. We're actually rounding down to two. France versus Germany. This is gonna be a fun match. And I have to get the calculator out. I can't do 37 divided by 19. Like I said, I have been enjoying a Heineken. I was out at the waterfront. So wait, what's 1.94? And we wanna have 9 divided by four. That's 2.2. And then 9 divided by five. 1.8, 2.2, 1.9. Okay, so then that means they are favoring, but just, they're just favoring the French. And I think this is where our model's very different because we are favoring a little bit to the Germans. Yeah, you can see, 2.2 versus 1.7. The French are the world champions. So to bet against them, and I mean, they've got Mbappé and all these amazing strikers. But yeah, this is one thing where our model's not only is it wrong when you round it up, but it's also wrong when you go into other things, which means potentially a betting, but we're not talking about betting, so we're not gonna say that. Finland and Russia. We're favoring the Russians and you have three divided by four. That's the small number, so straight away we can tell that we are correct on that one as well. It's gonna be interesting when we go through the actual results to see how accurate we were then, but like I said, we're just comparing ourselves to the bookie. So this is a purely mathematical model versus the bookies who use, I think, professional, it's more subjective. Well, I don't know how they come up with their results. Different betting sites will have different things and then there's arbitras as well and it's a lot more complicated. Wales versus Turkey. We're going for a draw and I think that is favoring Turkey. 31 divided by 21, yeah, that's like, yeah, come on, yeah, my math's fine. It's favoring Turkey, which means, like I said, we even have to show this. Yeah, we're also favoring Turkey 1.3 to 0.8, but when you take for rounding, our model's also kind of wrong. I think what we should do, let's make these ones orange and we'll keep the red one for when we, it's like completely wrong. So we'll make these ones orange. Then it also doesn't make our model look that bad. You know, we've got all this red everywhere. Italy, yeah, Italy's the favorite. We've got Italy also as the favorite, fantastic. Now the little green one. Ukraine, I think you're, yeah, Ukraine is favored. Over Macedonia, here we go. Denmark, Belgium, like I say, once again, once again, they're probably gonna be favoring Belgium. You're 2.4 to 1.6. This is probably gonna be an orange one. Although wait, this is 27 to 10, five to two, but you're 21. Okay, so they, bookies aren't necessarily putting that much weight behind Belgium, but we kind of get it a little bit wrong when we do our rounding. I mean, that's the nice thing about these bookies here. They don't have to allow for rounding. They can be a lot more accurate. So that's why you could even argue that our model is correct on these orange ones as well. And it's only the France versus Germany one that we've been completely, completely off. Netherlands, Austria, it is favoring the Netherlands. And we're also favoring the Netherlands. So we get another green one. Sweden versus Slovakia and it's favoring Sweden. Yeah, we're also favoring Sweden over there as well. So Croatia versus Czech, we're favoring Croatia. Remember they got into the finals last time. Just see 24 divided by 19. That number is gonna be lower than 23 divided by 10. Yeah, so it's also favoring Croatia. England versus Scotland. Yeah, favoring England. I mean, we've got a three one. This England scored a lot of goals. I mean, they got the highest score rate on their thing. Hungary versus France. I mean, do we even have to check? Do we even have to check? But you are check, it's times eight if hungry ones. So definitely there we go with the French. Portugal versus Germany. Well, let's just see who... Okay, so we are favoring a little bit of the Germans, but we do have more of a draw. Okay, this is where... I think it's also favoring, but hold on. 28 divided by 11, that is 2.5. Seven divided... Oh yeah, it's gonna favor the Germans 1.4. Okay, so they're favoring the Germans. Like I say, this is more of a little bit of an orange one. But like I said, if you had to look at our model to the second decimal, it would be right. The first decimal, it is rock that is saying a draw. Hence why we're making it orange. Spain versus Poland. And we got Spain as the favorite. Spain as well. There we go. Italy versus Wales. Italy versus Wales. Italy is favorite. We're favoring Italy, fantastic. Switzerland versus Turkey. Ooh, I think they're gonna favor... Who they're gonna favor? Probably the Turks. Oh no, 1.3 and 1.3. Okay, so this is definitely a draw. We need the draw to be the lowest one. Oh, look how close it is. 12 divided by five versus 11 divided by five. Which means, I can't believe I'm doing this. 12 divided by five is 2.4. I'm just double checking. 11 divided by five is 2.2. So there's, wait, but there's 16 divided by 11 is 1.4. Okay, no, no, wait, wait, wait. So they are favoring, they're favoring Switzerland. And so this is, okay, this is the second one that we've got wrong. Okay, so they're favoring Switzerland. We're favoring a draw. And on the second decimal, we're also favoring a draw. So that's another wrong one that we've made. We've been doing so well. Okay, yeah, the Netherlands that we favored. Wait, did I miss Ukraine and Austria? Sorry, Ukraine and Austria. Oh, sorry, I have to get the calculator out again. I should not, this is why you should not drink beer on a Friday because then you can't do long division on your channel. And actually they're like, oh, you're naturally, you must be good at maths. 43 divided by 19. Compare that to the 1.7, nine divided by five, 1.8. Yeah, okay, well I can see why. Because 25 divided by 14 is 1.78, nine divided by five is 1.8. Which means it is quite difficult to say that that is the favor. So Ukraine is favored just, just, just, let's see how close was it. I'm probably, that's probably like 1. something and that's gonna be like 1.4 or something. Oh yeah, 1.5 to 1.2. So very, very close. We did get it right, but yeah, we're also showing how close it is of a match as well. Then we saw there, Netherlands was favored. So we've got another green one there. Then we have Finland and Belgium, Belgium favored for, you can tell instantly if the numerator is smaller than the denominator, then it's instantly, that's kinda like the favorite. Especially if the other two don't have that as well. So here, this is favoring Belgium. Ooh, sorry, I missed the Russian, Denmark one. Come up. Oh yeah, because why do they have it in the different order? They're playing both at the same time. Oh, that's why. Russia, Denmark, Russia, Denmark, they are favoring the Danes. We're favoring, we got a draw, but I think we might even be favoring Russia because Russia had very good score of things. So I think ours is very wrong. Yeah, it's a very wrong one because, so we have to give that as a red one there. Ooh, we've got three bad matches. Three bad matches that the model, yeah, this deviation. Croatia and Scotland, 68 to 67, 12 to five, 90 to five. Okay, so they're favoring Croatia. We're also favoring Croatia. So there we go. Okay, Czech to England, Czech to England and G71, that is, I mean, I don't know, like I won England's win. I mean, that's the team I'm gonna be backing in this tournament followed by France and Germany. I really like those teams. They may be even the Netherlands as well, but oh, I don't know. That's quite, quite, yeah, very strict. Anyway, same as our model, Sweden versus Poland. Ooh, I think 28 divided by 17 is the smallest number there. Yeah, that's 1.6, nine divided by four is 2.0, yeah. Okay, like I said, when you're making videos and you're doing live, your maths ability does go a little bit up the window. So I do want to just rather check, rather check, then make a mistake. So yeah, they're favoring Sweden over Poland. Let's see if this orange or red. Yeah, it's gonna be red because we're expecting the draw to be the most likely one. Okay, so Slovakia, Spain. Slovakia, Spain, yeah, Spain is the favorite as well. France versus Portugal, we're going in at a draw. And this one, again, sorry, I do have to use the calculator. 31 divided by 21. That's 1.4 versus, no, no, wait. I don't have to do that. I think, yeah, they're definitely favoring France. Definitely favoring France, yeah. Okay, we're not. But if we had to look at our thing, so I think this could be orange. No, no, we have Portugal at 1.7. So this is going to be another red one. No, there was like such few red ones and now all at the bottom. Okay, Germany versus Hungary. I don't even have to check. I'm sure that's, yeah, six there. There we go. Okay, cool. So those are our score predictions. What I'll do is, yeah, I think what we can see is let's count how many they were. So one, two, three, let me use this lovely little, oh my gosh, did you, oh, because I don't think it's going all the way down. So if you just drag it. So out of the 36 games, one, two, three, four, five, five are wrong. So five out of 36 are wrong, which means 31 divided by 36. We have an 86% accuracy at the second decimal. Like I say, we had to add in one, two, yeah, it will make it low. I don't want to calculate that number because it's going to be a low number. But essentially, yeah, these are some of the results. Let me know your thoughts in the comment section below who you think is going to win and what you thought of the model process. Did you like how we simply just took the amount of goals that you've scored in the previous qualifying rounds and the amount that you've conceded? We've added those two together divided by two in order to get the expected goal compared it with the opposing team and kind of come up to a score by rounding to one, yeah, to zero decimals. And we've used that to try and get our result. So yeah, I hope you've enjoyed the video and then if it's not completely wrong, we'll maybe do it for the, what you might call it, the qualifying rounds. Although then we can then use the data from the group stages to update the model and we can start getting a little bit more, more accurate as well. But as always, thanks so much for watching and I hope you guys enjoy the soccer later this evening. Cheers.