 Hello, welcome everyone to another capsule international relations capsule for Shankar IA's academy. Today we shall discuss the midterm U.S. poll which was held on 9th of November but the results are not yet final. In fact, when we think of elections in the U.S. we are always perplexed by the fact that the oldest democracy in the world still cannot hold elections without problems. We are a much bigger country, much bigger waters list lists but we have a uniform pattern for all the states and there is a very efficient election commission and so on. So our results come out very fast and very few cases of dispute arise and mostly the judgment is immediately available and the government is formed in a few days. But this is not the case in the U.S. Firstly, because different states have different rules and regulations regarding elections. Ballot papers are very different and the counting process in spite of all the technology that they have is done by hand in many cases depending on from state to state. So even when there is a general election there is some confusion as to where the results will be and the last one we all know how Mr. Trump claimed that Biden has stolen his election and created such a havoc in the country and democracy itself was in danger the way we went about and this happens even in midterm polls. You know it's called midterm polls because these are held in the middle of the term of the president. Biden has just completed two years and he has two more years to go and it is in the middle of the president's term that some elections are held. What happens is the Congress members at the House of Representatives have only two year terms but there is no limit to the number of times they can contest but it means that they have to face an election every two years. The members of the Senate on the other hand face elections only every six years. They have six years term but it is based in such a way that many of one third of the senators come up for elections every two years. So one third retires and the two thirds remain and the next year another one third retires. So what happens is for all the 435 seats of the Congress which is the House of Representatives went to went for elections and in the Senate about 35 of them one third of the Senate members were also up for election. So the results have come and the trends are quite visible but still the final results may not come till the end of December or so because one Senate seat neither of the parties, neither of the candidates had a required number of votes and therefore it may not decided yet. It may go for repolling in December. So that means the result of the Senate we will know only after that is over in Georgia but the present situation is of course the Democrats are leading with 50 seats in the Senate. There are 100 seats in the Senate. They already have 50 and Republicans have 49. So one seat pending but the situation is such that Democrats have already won the Senate because they have 50 seats and the Vice President has a casting vote. So Democrats will have a majority. They had a majority already of one seat but now they have a more precarious majority having to use the Vice President in the time of voting to cast a vote. So Senate they already captured this was not expected at all. There was considerable speculation that the Republicans were going to win the Senate and the Congress and Donald Trump the former president was leading the Republicans and he created the impression that they were winning. So Senate they clearly won but in the Congress that is the House of Representatives Democrats have 209 seats and the Republicans have 217 seats which means that it is likely to be won by the Republicans because they did only one more seat to get the majority. So while in the first term as President, President Biden had majority in the Senate and also majority in the Congress and that is being upset now. Now he will be Democratic. Senate will be Democratic but the House of Representatives will be Republican with a fairly four or five seats majority. And this was most unexpected because there was this speculation in fact prediction that it will be a red wave. You know the Republicans are red color and Democrats are blue color and there will be a red wave this time but that was proved wrong and Mr. Trump has been discredited because many of his candidates he put up for the midterm polls failed. Some of them were very famous characters in many ways distinguished etc but the people turned against him in a sense and that is why he could not get a majority in the Senate. The Congress majority will be there but to be rather small. So the negotiating capability of the Republicans is less because of course President has to go to the Congress for budget passing so many resolutions to be passed etc. So what they do is if there is difference of opinion they negotiate and the concessions are made for the opposition etc that's how it works in the US Congress. So this time in the Congress he will have problem but the Senate is more powerful because all the presidential appointments have to be you know supported by the Senate by a vote of majority. So we can appoint whoever he wants because the Senate will approve it. If the Senate majority was lost then he would have been finding it difficult to appoint ambassadors or any other positions in the in the government. So that advantage he has and also since the majority of the Republicans in the Congress is likely to be small we don't know the final results likely to be small the difficulties that the President might have otherwise have in the US Congress will not be there. So Mr Biden in a sense has won these elections from expected failure he actually won the elections and he is very comfortable to go ahead. So President Trump's chances of becoming the Republican candidates has become less but at the same time he has already announced yesterday that he will try to be the Republican candidate but there is no great enthusiasm for him there may be another Republican candidate may emerge anytime and President Biden of course has also indicated interest in a second term which is normally given to presidents but in this particular case the problem is his health and also his ability to withstand the pressures for two years and then another four years. I think it may be too difficult to expect because of his present health is particularly not very good and the Americans are very sensitive about the health of the President even if there is an illness they start worrying about what will happen if something happens to the President and therefore it is possible that somebody from the Democratic Party might challenge him but with this victory he is likely to be the next candidate and he could well be President if his health is reasonable. So this was most unexpected and therefore the next two years President Biden will have a very comfortable performance if he wants to give more money to the Ukrainians or do various things with NATO etc. it will be easy for him to do it and so he is on a what we call a strong we kept in here next two years and if he gets the nomination of the Democratic Party he may well be the next President. So this is the situation. So why did this happen? Normally what happens is in the midterm polls presidents normally lose because nobody would have listened to the expectation of the electorate so in many cases there are some yardsticks in which the presidents lose the majority in the Senate and the Congress like for example if unemployment rate is above 7% history shows that all those presidents in this situation lost the majority in the houses in the Congress and the Senate. Similarly there are other occasions when for other reasons presidents do not get majority but here even though his presidency over the last two years not very promising to some somewhat lackluster but still he managed to get the elections through and so he should be happy. So in a sense we can say that Biden has won the election but one thing is the Georgia if there is a repeated poll and the Republicans win then there will be 50-50 and still there will be no problem he will not lose the Senate and Congress is not likely to win. So what are the reasons why he won or Democrats won? The general assessment is this was all because of the abortion law. There were two major topics of discussion during the elections. One was inflation, the patient rate has reached about 7% which is very serious for the economy. So people were blaming the president for it and therefore there was a feeling that he may not get sufficient number of seats in the a republic or the Senate. Senate he already got it in Republicans and the second issue was abortion because as you may remember in 1973 there was a Supreme Court decision which gave the rights for women for abortion in certain circumstances and that was just recently. The Supreme Court itself has overturned that it was a big surprise and the Supreme Court overturned it and as a result abortion has become illegal but it's not true that all of them have become illegal because in the US each state has separate regulations and rules. So the states themselves can legislate and if they legislate in a particular way the abortion rights will come back to the women in decisions but Republicans have been opposing it and therefore since Republicans are not in favor of abortion and Democrats are in favor of abortion, apparently the vote went in the favor of Democrats. This is what one hears about the analysis. This might be true because that's a sensitive matter in the United States and there is general reference for abortion to be possible in any circumstances that is what the Americans prefer. So according to all the estimates and analyses that have appeared in the American press the inflation issue was less important than the abortion issue and therefore the Republicans have lost and President Biden has won the elections. I already mentioned the consequences of it in the sense that the president will be comfortable with both the houses and that's good for him. The President Trump has lost his popularity as a result but he is still a candidate and as you know when he started off in his first election he did not have even one person's support and he won the elections. So anything can happen any miracle can happen whether he will be my candidate or not is a question but he is the most visible to public and candidates. So and as far as impact on the world is concerned President Biden has not had any remarkable success. He had problems in Afghanistan as we all know then the visit of Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan did not help him in any way necessarily provoke the Chinese and the Chinese have now declared that whatever happens they will go for reunification of China whether it be peacefully or otherwise. So they say that we'll try to do it peacefully but if that happens we will use force. What Xi Jinping said was that we cannot rule out or we can never promise that we'll not use force in the sense that if it gets delayed beyond a point America in China is willing to use force which is a highly dangerous thing because the Americans are bound to support and there could be a world war in case China takes Taiwan by force. And the other complication there is that since China is now supporting Russia on Ukraine Russia is bound to support China in the case of Taiwan if there is a conflict. So that's a very serious matter. Other than that this will not make a big difference to the world. President Biden is going to continue corona in the two years and he may even win the elections next year next term. But the present situation is calm and there is no reason for anxiety. As far as India is concerned as you all know it is the support for India is bipartisan. Both the parties believe that relationship with India is good. So there will be no difference really who is the president but there have been differences in the past because on certain issues the situation becomes very sensitive. So in our case it is a matter of the quad as well as China because Republicans are not are the Democrats are more tolerant of China Republicans. Like for example when Ladakh the Chinese incursion took place we got very big support from President Trump because that's also because Mr. Prime Minister Modi had a good relationship with Trump because he has even had even better relationship with the Democrats than Obama was president. So it depends but Republicans generally are opposed to the Chinese presence and the power and they are inclined to support us. Not that they will come and fight the war for us in a moment. We may get some support from in terms of intelligence and we may also get some support of arms being supplied to us etc. Even in 1962 because the war had ended when American supplies were sent into India and there was nobody to use it because we were completely shattered. So they have a tendency to support anybody against against China Republicans and so there is a confrontation between China and India. It is believed that the Republicans will maybe have greater support to us than the Democrats. So that is one angle we have to think about but otherwise normally it will not make any difference to India-US relations and the things will go smoothly because depending on priorities and so on what issues come up because last two years we had all the issues like the pandemic, the war, economic crisis, all kinds of things happened and so we should be prepared for another turbulent two years for President Biden and how he performs and how he else performs. All this will be factors in determining what will happen to India-US relations in the next two years. But there is no particular concern about this because the Kamala Harris is waiting in the wings if something happens to the President but that is something which nobody can predict. So as before the US situation will remain very active and track the table. But the one sad thing about it all is that United States has not yet mastered conducting of elections peacefully and also declaring results. That is very sad for us. With all our inefficiency and lack of technology we do a better job than elections than the American elections. That is something of great comfort to us but certainly the democratic process will cease. There have been cases where the presidents were nominated by the Supreme Court because nobody could know how people voted when there was confusion. So it is a classic case of that and that continues and therefore the results will not be available till the end of December when the Senate may have another runoff voting as they call it because if neither of the candidates has a clear majority then they have to go for another poll and that will be known only at the end of December. But it is very clear that the Democrats have the Senate and the Republicans have the Congress and the Democrats have the President and so they have an upper hand in the politics in the United States. So thank you very much. There are questions I shall try to answer. Thank you. This is a legitimate question but we don't know. The answer is we don't know because naturally the President will try his best to improve the economic condition of the US but there are so many important reports. We don't know how long the Russia-Ukraine war will last and that is a question which nobody can answer, not even President Putin. So the economic situation may continue to be precarious, inflation rate may go up, price of oil has already gone up and supply of oil from Russia may not be available for Europe. So there is a thorough turbulence in the economic field like almost like 2008. The world has just recovered from that and then another thing may follow. And as far as India is concerned, of course, whatever happens in the United States will have its impact on the whole world, particularly India for good or for bad, it will have implications for us. So how it's going to affect us will depend on our own policies. The trade agreement has not come into being. There are other issues and these are all we discussed. The trade facts are being discussed by the two sides and let's hope that even if there is a big issue in the United States, India will be able to manage as we did in 2008. Back in 2008 it was Dr. Manmohan Singh who showed the way to the world how to overcome that. So that's why Mr. Obama used to call Manmohan Singh my guru in economics and that is what led to the G20 which we are going to be chairmen. So there are very many interesting things happening. So we can't predict what the situation will be as of now. These are all unknown questions. The Republican party is divided, we all know. In fact, Donald Trump came into that as a candidate, as a usurper. He was not expected to be the candidate at all. But he manipulated his way all the way up. So it's not impossible that he may do that again. Whether he got the support of the Russians or not, that was the allegation against him. But there is no guarantee that the Republican voice will be united. For that matter, even democratic positions may not be united for. But that is a democracy. And let the best man win, that's all that we can wish. And who the best man is? The people of America themselves. I wish I was an astrologer. Nobody else can answer that question. Of course, people are doing things very fast in order to deal with this difficult situation. The Europeans have said that they have no objection to other people buying Russian oil provided the prices are kept at a minimum. So sanctions will continue if the war goes on. You'll get even more aggressive. And therefore, every country will be affected in the world. Our Prime Minister at the G20 meeting today spoke about poverty and the lack of shortage of food. He said that now it is shortage of fertilizers, but it will result in shortage of food. And it will be a big challenge. So what has happened to what's going to happen in Europe in the winter? Because now they're talking about the next winter rather than this one. This one, there is really no hope of resolving it. So that is where it is. Well, depending on the question that they ask, there can be a question relating to the midterm polls and the chances of the future there could be. Then a question as to what are the factors which resulted in the success for the Democrats? And that you know the main factor is supposed to be the abortion law, which was overturned by the Supreme Court. So this will be any one of these questions and cameras. Why do you want to do that? We can do anything. We can ban anything that's possible, but we'll not do anything against the right to information, right to the freedom for expression. And all these reflected in Twitter as in other social media. And they cannot do, no government can suffocate the people. But the person who is suffocating the people happens to be the richest man in the world. And he buys the high-stitcher of four billion dollars or whatever. And then he is silencing it in various ways. It's very strange that this is happening. But I see no reason for Twitter to be banned in India. We have taken actions against them and Facebook etc., for not observing the rules in India. And we are in touch with them. We find them sometimes. But I see no possibility of any of the social media being banned in India. Yes, this is more or less known, but there is really no evidence. You know, the impeachment case came up and it lost. So there is no evidence to show that Russians, but there were indications. I don't know whether publicly acknowledged it. But there is some concern that this happened. So people will try not to happen. Russia has already been told about the undesirability of intervention. And that doesn't prevent them from intervening, if they think Trump would be a better choice or whatever. And now technology has developed to such an extent that these things are possible. And we cannot really, but if they support Trump again, if Trump becomes the candidate, and he wins, there will be other consequences. So this is all a matter of speculation at the moment. There have been some reports that the Americans are talking to Iran. Because when it comes to oil diplomacy, those who have the oil matter, others do not matter, ideologies do not matter. So they will do whatever they can as possible. So the President Biden had gone to Saudi Arabia to persuade them to reduce production so that price remains steady. But Saudi Arabia had refused to do that. But now it appears that OPEC is lowering its production, which may be helpful. And other countries like Iran and Venezuela are in sanction, actually. And we can't say how it will evolve. I'm sure everybody will talk to everybody else. When it comes to existence and poverty and all of the problems, this is not, anything is, anything is possible, in your region it is possible. Yeah, it was in 1973 that abortion became legal in the U.S. But in the U.S., the system is that whatever rules are framed for the country as a whole need not necessarily apply to all the states because the states have flexibility in developing their own regulations. So this was suddenly struck off by the Supreme Court in 2002. So Supreme Court reversed the judgment of 1973. And there was a lot of questions and complaints and agitations and so on. And now it has happened that the Democrats support abortion while, sorry, Republicans support abortion while Democrats oppose it for various reasons, religions, so it looks, it appears as though Republicans would have otherwise won, lost because the people believed in the democratic policy of being open to abortion rather than, so they put it as the most important issue in the election. So whether it was inflation or control or not, they wanted that this issue should be resolved for the interests of the people. And so if Republicans come back to power that will create more problems for the people and therefore they opposed. And that is the reason why the Democrats got more votes. But these things keep changing the U.S. abortion, same-sex marriage, all kinds of things are under discussion and sometimes very surprising decisions are taken. The Supreme Court reversing this itself was a big surprise. But this is how the United States works and legislation works because this is not the majority party which is ruling. Then it's easier because in the Indian parliament the government does not have to struggle because the majority party can pass any legislation. But in the U.S. it is not that. That's because the president is in a particular party. He cannot get anything done in the Congress. The Congress majority matters, the debate matters, the relationship with the president, with the legislators will matter. And final compromise are made in the middle of the night. Sometimes the governments get closed down for several days because the parliament cannot agree. So such things happen. It is strange but democracy when it is very strong such things will happen. They are appointed by the president and then they have to get the approval of the Senate. That's how it is. There is no collegiate. The president can appoint anyone he wants. And the record of the judges in question. And that is what is examined. How has he voted on certain issues? All these are debated. And then only they will get support. There have been rejection by the Senate of judges appointed by presidents. So president and the Senate are the only factors in this. And the Senate majority is there for the president. His nominations will go to him. Okay then. Thank you very much. See you again.