 What is going on guys? I am on YouTube now We got a few people in here if you're in here tuning in on YouTube make sure to say what's up. Let me where is my camera There we go, what's going on guys? Thank you guys for joining us once again today is the 15th of April 2024 It's about 1 15 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. So hello to everyone, you know depending where you guys are located It's the middle of the afternoon here. There's been a lot that's happened since we did our last live stream last week So we're gonna be jumping into it We're gonna be talking about the Bitcoin halving Because that is expected to be in about four days either the 19th of April or the 20th of April So we have that to look forward to this week this weekend And then we also have of course we saw a massive massive dump in crypto over the weekend Due to the war with Israel and Iran. So we're gonna we're gonna go a little bit into that I'm not gonna go into the war part of it Because I'm not too much. I don't know much about all of that about what's really going on with the war and why They're at war What I know about and what I'm gonna personally go into is why and how wars affect the prices of Bitcoin so a lot of people were asking me Why you know why Bitcoin was dropping with the war and why the war directly affects it So we're gonna jump into that we're gonna talk a little bit about it We're gonna talk about the Bitcoin halving and then we're I'm gonna do an analysis overall on the Bitcoin's price and I'm gonna share, you know some potential Trades that I might be looking to make or where I'm potentially potentially looking to buy on these dips. So Yeah, let's go ahead and dive right into it. If you guys are still on Instagram I'm still live on Instagram. If you guys are on Instagram watching right now I am alive on YouTube just search Bitcoin daily and you'll be able to see it I will be sharing my screen and And yeah, so I'm gonna end I'm gonna end the live here on On Instagram appreciate you guys tuning in. I'll see you guys on YouTube that we've done that Close that out real quick So I just saw a tweet here says that that Israel Air Force has completed its preparation for an imminent attack against Iran I don't like the sound of that Let me see what the markets are looking like right now Nothing right now doesn't seem like there's too much You know that that it's fazed it as of now but Yes, there's there's a lot going on guys. Let me say what's up to everybody that's in the chat That's tuned in that's commented Rodrigo. What's going on? Arsh from India Rodrigo's from Mexico Mexico mi hermano cometa What's going on with everybody if you guys don't know I do speak Spanish as well I am I was born and raised here in the US, but I am my parents are from Cuba My first language was Spanish and then when I you know started school I learned English and had to basically we learn Spanish later on in life, but Let's dive into this guys Let's let's talk a little bit about about what's going on here with the Bitcoin with the war and with the Upcoming halving so let's start off here with the halving The halving event as you guys can see the countdown right now We're about four days away guys, so it's gonna get interesting things things are definitely gonna get interesting here We we are going gonna be seeing this halving potentially Friday or Saturday. I Feel like it's gonna be Saturday because Saturday that makes it 420, right? And just like last bull run Bitcoin went up to 69 thousand dollars, right? So it's only right if the halving happens on 420, right? 69 and 420 makes sense So I wouldn't be surprised if that's how things work out here in the crypto space But but yeah guys, so so definitely prepare for that remember that The main moves for Bitcoin are after the halving and we spoke it we spoken about this Several times here on the channel. We covered it probably the last like two or three weeks. We've been talking about this, right? Here's a kind of a breakdown on on what that looks like so first We have the pre halving accumulation phase then we have the pre halving rally phase Then we have the pre halving pullback, which is currently where we are, right? And we've seen this massive massive pullback here over the last one two three four five weeks now So we've basically been ranging and we've seen big pullbacks here over the last five weeks And if we look at those pullbacks to see how big from the top To the bottom about 17 and a half percent pullback there so that's pretty much in line with with what I've been expecting here as far as pullbacks and We can continue to range in this Anywhere here now once we go into the next phase after the halving which will be the post halving accumulation So this phase is expected to last anywhere around 90 days three months You know, obviously could be different But that's that's kind of the average when we look back in history at you know, what it's done if we look here This lasted 70 days So it could be shorter and if we go further back to the halving before that it lasted 147 days so that's pretty much You know that what we're gonna be at we're gonna be anywhere between 70 to 147 I don't think 147, but it's a potential and it's it's a scenario that that we should be prepared for it, right? So now another thing to note here. We saw here back in 2016 after the halving We got one more big big dip here Now we don't know exactly what that event was I would have to look it up what was happening in August of 2016 But there was a big dip you see that Bitcoin picked right back up though And then you know began began its rally upwards And then the previous one we had the COVID crash. So that was a little bit different as well Right. We had the COVID crash Then we began here to have the pre halving rally We had a smaller than usual pre halving correction And I think that's due to the COVID crash that we saw here Then we still did see the accumulation for about a little bit over two months And then we began that really big rally there nicely to the upside So that's basically what we're expecting to see something very very similar to this where We've had the accumulation. We've seen the pre have halving rally play out And now we've seen the pre halving pullback play out So now we're expecting to see some accumulation here for the probably the next few months Before the post halving rally where things really begin to take off and that's when we could potentially See prices go, you know above a hundred thousand dollars and potentially 200 right I think for myself 200,000 has been my overall prediction For the next year or two So I'm really hoping that plays out because that'll be amazing if you guys are hearing anything in the background There is construction here across from my from where I live Very very annoying. It's literally happening almost the entire day Hopefully you guys don't hear that but it's very loud in my ears So I imagine that you you guys might be hearing it as well So just just to let you guys know if you're hearing something strange. It's probably because of that. All right, so Now talking about the halving of course is gonna happen soon we spoke about potential diminishing returns Which is also why I think there's diminishing pullbacks, right? So that's another subject that we spoke about last week So let's kind of take a look at Something that I that I kind of drew here last week while we were speaking about it so What one of the subjects here was of diminishing returns and as you can see from the previous two bull runs a 12,800 percent move up and in the last bull run a 2100 percent move up and in this bull run if we do about half of this And again this 2100 is not half of 12,000 But saying if we did about half of it that would put us at around 200,000 dollars. So I mean, that's not unrealistic But we could end up somewhere, you know, maybe a little bit lower If let's say we did half of what we did Last time will not have less than half Let's say 600 percent overall that puts us at around 110,000 dollars I definitely think we do more than that. So I'm in the ballpark of around anywhere between 150 to 200,000 dollars for the peak of this bull run It's kind of what I've been thinking, right? So because I because we know it's not that I think because we know that there's diminishing returns as bitcoin matures, that's why we also expect diminishing pullbacks and You know over I know I know that we've seen a lot of massive pullbacks over the years But as bitcoin has matured slowly, we've also seen those pullbacks get, you know At least less and less right before at any given time bitcoin could pull back 40 50 percent Right in the middle of a bull run Then we started seeing those 40 50s to go up to 20 to 30 percent Now we're at the point where we're seeing those 20 to 30 percent pullbacks to go more like 15 to 20, right? So that's kind of where we're at now. I think this bull run Currently during this pullback. We've seen it go down 17 and a half percent You know, how much lower can we go? I mean, I mean we can go and we could probably go up to like 20 21 22 maybe right? During the last pullback that we had the last really big one if we pull it up here We saw that pullback. Let's see. Where was this one? So that pullback was from up here 49,000 Down to 38,000 exactly a 21 and a half percent pullback right, so We definitely could see something like that and where would that take us a 21 and a half percent pullback Would leave us somewhere around Here 57 58 thousand dollars basically So is is that a possible scenario? It's it's a possible scenario, right? I'm not going to say that that's not a possible scenario but If we do get any pullback like that look how quickly price jumped up like right shortly after that To basically two a few weeks later than things skyrocketed, right? If we go from the bottom there To then the new top that's almost a 100 percent move guys 91.65 percent Was the move after that 21 and a half percent move. So if we saw something like that again From where we currently are Let's see from the current bottom If we see another 91 percent move, you know, that'll put us somewhere around 116,000 dollars Right so insane So that's pretty much what I'm expecting to see After this correction is over after we get through all of this after the bitcoin halving I'm expecting to see bitcoin Begin to do another leg up here So another thing that we can do here to try to get an idea of where we might potentially go Is uh Measure out the pattern, right? So what pattern are we seeing right now? This is the same exact pattern This is the same exact pattern. Hold on. Let me take off the lock Same exact pattern that we saw down here, right? And what is that that is called a bull flag? So how can we use this information now? To figure out where bitcoin could be going, right? So if we go like this This is basically a bull flag pattern here, right? Now in order to figure out Where bitcoin's going next We do something like this where we measure the previous move. So let's say from the beginning of the move To the top of the move Right Then we grab this and we put it at where the breakout could potentially be So I think the breakout would potentially be Somewhere around here at the apex of this um, if we expect something like that that gives us a 77 percent move to the upside right and that would give us about $116,000 as a target So i'm not saying That's gonna happen right away But I think that it's only a matter of time Before we see another rally just like this one right here Where it takes us, you know takes us to the next Leap that basically the next leap forward. So whether that's 85,000 80,000 90,100 or beyond, you know that I we don't know for sure But we that's that's basically what this pattern is telling us and we saw something similar like this before Right. So if we look even further back We're looking for these the same pattern right where Bitcoin has a big impulse move Then it has this correction slash both flag And then continuation Right and we kind of saw that here now. This was a lot more Of a uh consolidation period, but it was kind of the same thing If you just kind of draw the lines, right? So If we just kind of draw these lines Like that And more or less like this And we do this that's kind of the same pattern It's not going to be perfectly the same, but it's kind of the same So let's measure that one and see, you know, how close to the target did we get So if we measure it from where when it you know started really making its move It was more or less about there With the top about here. Hold on. I didn't have the measuring thing on That was about an 80 87 percent move the breakout occurred here And now we see It didn't go all the way up to the potential target, which was around what? 52,000 But it got close Right. We see it got up to 49,000 Right. We got close and eventually Right here it did hit that target so even though 116,000 might seem like really far out We might not go all the way there directly But it's only a matter of time. We could do something like this where, you know, we might run up like that Then kind of do something like that and then go up and hit that target right so Now how long it's going to take we don't know that's the thing you can see here Maybe quarter four is usually the most bullish quarters In in the year So maybe quarter four is where we hit that But that's just kind of an idea of where I think, you know, what I think we could potentially see here All right, so now that that we kind of more or less did an analysis on it Long term, um, let's talk a little bit about Let's talk a little bit about the war and How war affects crypto prices and why war affects bitcoin prices. So the idea is is pretty simple, right? Cash it went in the worst-case scenario of a war Cash is king, right? You need cash For the worst-case scenario of a war because if things are down Then you need to go around. There's no internet. There's no electricity. Whatever it could be You need to be using cash in order to survive, right? So when it comes to survival cash is king So when things like war happens is not that it directly affects bitcoin. It's not like, you know, it's like, oh my god There's a war. This is bad for bitcoin. It's it's bad. It's just bad overall for everything, right? It's bad for bitcoin all cryptos, right? It's bad for the stock market. It's bad for You know the world. It's bad for the countries. It's bad for the people. It's it's bad for everyone So that's what that's the thing with war. So you know institutional firms and institutional investors know these things and they have Uh algorithms set up, you know to trade based on sentiment trade based on news You know, they have all these different algorithms set up So when news like this comes out all those algorithms, they want to front run everybody else So they instantly begin to to to sell sell sell sell sell because they know With war or any news, you know that that There might be a war It, you know prices of assets usually go down because everyone wants to go into cash So that's pretty much why, um bitcoin gets affected with the news of war Right Um people are going into cash the algorithms want to front run the people going into cash So, you know, then that creates and then that creates it's a chain reaction, right? First the algorithm the news comes out And then the first things that they're going to be selling is the algorithms algorithms are first because they're too fast for computers You can't compete with them Then as bitcoin price falls, uh people start seeing that start panicking. They also start selling Then as that, uh makes price fall more Stop losses start hitting of any traders that were long, right? Traders start getting liquidated We saw over a billion dollars get liquidated in just a few days last week So that happens and that creates this cascade where, you know at at a certain price point the the There's a liquidation event then price falls faster Then it hits another liquidation then price falls another liquidation price falls as that continues to happen More and more people begin to panic and begin to sell And it's just a chain reaction right one after the other one after the other So that's why we see drops like we saw the other day where You know, there are uh bitcoin was down like 10 percent Ethereum was down in in just a few days. It dropped like 15 20 percent we saw uh right now I think Solana was down over 40 percent from recent highs Um cardana was down like 50 percent There's some things that are down 60 percent So yeah guys that that's that's how war affects all that stuff You know crypto that's that's why it affects it Um, and then you'll see things like gold also go up So um in times of war Cash is king and people go into gold uh because they consider gold safe and because they consider that Gold is something that you can trade and you can use as a form of payment as well So Yeah, that's that's pretty much my thoughts on it, you know as far as the people that were asking Why uh why you know bitcoin was dropping so much on the news of war. That's pretty much why um Now if you guys have any questions based on any of these things that I've covered so far Feel free to drop it in the comments. I'll be happy to uh to answer those for you guys Um, I'm gonna take a sip of water real quick and then uh, we're gonna look at uh We're gonna look a little deeper into bitcoins and it kind of analyze it a little bit more And we'll look into other news because there there is some other news as well that's been going on All right, so one of the other things That uh that happened here That nobody's talking about and pull it up here Give me a second Where is it All right, so this one So the other news here, let me switch over to it Hong Kong oppu's spot bitcoin and ethereum ETFs now. This is this is pretty bullish for crypto overall Remember that china is the one that has banned crypto and bitcoin 20 30 times at this point, right? They've every few years they banned bitcoin and now They approved spot bitcoin and ethereum ETFs So the us hasn't even approved ethereum ETFs yet, but hong kong Who has again china's banned bitcoin many times over? Has approved both bitcoin and ethereum ETFs And again, this is definitely very very Uh bullish the the issue is The fud right now the fear Uncertainty and doubt in the market right now because of this war and because of this latest drop has you know Basically is keeping this under wraps. It's it's overcoming all of this Right, so that's the issue right now that even though we had this bullish news today Um, there's there's too much out there right now That's pushing the price down. So and if you look at the if you look at Overnight, you know, this was this was announced overnight if you look overnight Bitcoin's price did very very well So this was announced around 2 a.m If we look here yesterday Wait, what's days today? All right, so here it is. This is about 2 a.m um 12 o'clock to 2 a.m You can see that I'm sorry 12 o'clock to 4 a.m You can see that bitcoin moved up almost 2% It went all the way from a low of 64,000 to a high of 66 Then it continued up from 4 a.m to about 8 a.m hitting a high of $67,000 And then after that, of course the u.s. Stock market opened up and bitcoin's prices dropped because we've gotten news about You know israel retaliation news and all that about the war. So we've dropped back down But you know in in if the war issue wasn't a thing right now I would expect that uh bitcoin would have definitely gone back up You know to to these previous levels up here beyond $70,000 So it's unfortunate guys. It's unfortunate that we're dealing with this Um, but it is what it is right? That's that's kind of where we're at right now so um Let's take a look here. We're looking at the four hour chart right now and We can see a few things right So we see these big support levels We see this is a big support level here. It's played out as a big support level there This is also a big support resistance there. You can see there's a lot of price action there so those two levels are around 63,000 and 65,000 right 65 and 66 so you can see the prices right here Right so all those levels are Big levels overall for for bitcoin and you can see that it's kind of bouncing around there We need to basically in order for us to to begin going higher again. We're going to need to Basically break above this level right here. That's it's around $68,000 and let me tell you why So right now you can see the structure the short-term structure overall Is what it's down right we can see we can kind of draw you can pretty much draw a line here And you can see that it's down right we have this line like that we have kind of something like this Right, so that that's kind of a falling wedge right if we look up The definition of a falling wedge Falling wedge So let me see if if there's something that gives us like an easy definition that we can just look at real quick So a rising wedge Usually occurs when a securities price Has been rising over time, but it can also occur in the midst of a downward trend as well Is not really telling me but I think you get the idea with the illustrations A falling wedge usually Is a sign of that our reversal is coming right so you can see prices falling falling falling And you can see the arrow pointing up because usually a reversal happens after a falling wedge Same thing with a rising wedge usually price drops so As we look at it right now we see this sort of a falling wedge, right? So we need In order to see a reversal we're gonna have to see bitcoin break out of this And break this level right here because that's If it breaks that then that's basically a break of structure, right? We're breaking that trend Where it's been going down because we've been setting Lower lows and lower highs, right? We've been setting we had this high low lower high lower low Again, sorry lower low lower high lower low lower high right, so We've been boom boom boom boom boom boom so Right now we're getting once again We're heading down, right? if we continue What we've been seeing here we could potentially Set up another lower low, right? Before bouncing back this way So what we need to see here is bitcoin's price Basically break all of that we need to break this structure So if we saw price go this way then we set up a new higher high We set up a new lower Higher low and and higher high so this would be a Higher low and then we'd set a higher high Right because this was the other high so We need to break the structure until there's a break of structure We could potentially continue kind of bouncing like this All the way down, you know to to this $60,000 range So that's pretty much one of the things that that that i've been watching right now and keeping my eye on um and we need to continue doing so going forward and With the war news, it's difficult to say What's going to happen next? You know bitcoin doesn't really care about technicals, especially when there's war Things going on But we try to use the technicals to you know try to see the possible scenarios One thing to know is that Prices will bounce back Very very hard When the war news goes down, right? We already saw it We saw bitcoin go all the way from $60,000 to $67,000 in a matter of a day or two, right? Um, and now we're back down to about 63 64 So we know that it's going to happen. We just don't know when right now. There's news of israel potentially attacking iran again So because of that, you know bitcoin is dropping again so we just got a uh We got we got to use these dips here for You know as as potential, you know, we got to use these as an opportunity to build to dollar cost average and build our long-term Holdings here for the next year these these are because once the war things cold off, which eventually they will Prices are going to pump It's only a matter of time guys Um, we saw this with ukraine and russia Remember when the when everything with ukraine and russia happened Bitcoin dumped right bitcoin was was falling hard And then as soon as everything kind of cooled down Bitcoin prices just went right back up. So um, yeah, yeah guys a lot of people are asking me. Is it a good time to buy crypto now? um 100 percent right because right now, um It's only a matter of time. They this is gonna happen. Of course, you know Depending what happens with the war all that etc. Etc. It's gonna go down Use those as opportunities to buy long term for the next year or two because after the halving is when bitcoin really begins to have a move up And i'm not just saying it. It's historically proven. It's happened over and over again There will be a supply shock. It's only a matter of time guys. There will be a supply shop because when the halving happens What happens is there's less bitcoin Going into the market openly every single day, right if there's less bitcoin going in being created But the demand stays the same Right that means price goes up Now think about it this way If there's less bitcoin going into the open market and demand increases Then bitcoin goes parabolic so That's what's about to happen in the next few months. It's not gonna happen today tomorrow Even with when the halving happens in in a few days but It's going to happen And you need to be prepared for it and the only way and right now you're getting one last opportunity To buy bitcoin Right now you're getting one last opportunity to buy bitcoin at a discount Before the bitcoin halving happens before there's less Bitcoin being coming into the open market With the same amount of demand and with potentially increasing demand Which will send everything parabolic over the next 12 to 18 months. So Be prepared guys use these opportunities to make to To potentially change your life right to to make build up your portfolio Even if you're new put up put, you know make a little budget weekly budget put some money in it That money's gonna grow and your portfolio overall is gonna grow So there we have it guys that's pretty much everything that I wanted to speak about today what I wanted to cover I didn't get any questions in the comments So, um Yeah, we're just gonna gonna wrap things up. Thank you guys for tuning in Um, I will do I I had a lot of people request an outcoins Livestream where where I analyzed the different outcoins So I think I'll do one of those on potentially Wednesday or Thursday So sometime later this week either in the midpoint or towards the end of the week So I'll see you guys in that one as always guys. Peace and love. See you on the next one