 Now Africans are well known for storytelling, so I'd like to start this morning by sharing with you a true story out of Africa, which I believe embodies what I want to talk about in the next 12 to 15 minutes. An English journalist was covering a story at a mental institution in Africa. Towards the end of his tour, he turns to the head psychiatrist and asks the question, how is it that you know when it's time to release a patient back into the community? The psychiatrist turned to him and said, well, we have a number of tests that we conduct across their time with us, but we have a final test that gives us a big indication. We fill a bathtub with water and then we give the patient a teaspoon, a cup and a bucket. We then ask them to empty that tub. With enthusiasm, the journalist turns to the psychiatrist and says, well, obviously the ones that are ready to go back into the community will get the bucket because it's bigger. With a lot of concern, the doctor turns to the journalist and says, well, when they're ready, they'll reach in and pull out the drain plug. The point I'm trying to make there for what we want to talk about this morning is sometimes I feel as though the options that are presented to us in agriculture in Australia don't always comprise the best alternative. There are a lot of things that are given to us about how we can get on with agriculture, but sometimes we need to think outside the box to work out the best alternative. And that's certainly one of the things I feel about efficiencies within our infrastructure. I wanted to take a moment this morning to paint what I really think is the problem. And I'll take you through a few numbers. I know there were quite a lot of numbers in the presentation earlier this morning, and when I looked around at the audience I could tell people's heads were getting knocked about with a few numbers. But my numbers are simple. Give me a couple of moments to explain what I think is the problem. According to the FAO, the amount of food supply when you break it down to K cows per day per person is roughly about 2900. That's food supply as a 2015. Food demand as a 2015 sits at about 2400. So there's a little bit of a gap. But I'll explain something underlying that which I think is a real issue. Now the thing that happens next, as we all know, about 30% goes to food loss and food waste. So to get to 2900, you really need to start at 3600. First problem, which comes to supply chains, and I'll talk to that in a second. The other problem we've got, or maybe it's a good thing, I don't know, you tell me, we've got a rising population. So between now and 2030, we estimate that at least the food demand will have that much pressure that will require an additional 335 K cows per person per day. We also have an issue around a lot of the things that have been discussed around Asia, which goes to the heart of the changing income profiles in Asia. And I really want to touch on this one, and I hope I can leave this with you to think about. The reality is, even though each person probably eats about 2400 average, we are talking about average. What is happening to the world in the next while ahead, the next 10, 20, 30 years is that average is going to be under pressure because more and more people will have more money than that average can go for. What I mean by that is, while the average for Australia might not be 2400, it might be 3000, there are more and more people as a 2030 or 2050 that will require more and more food to eat. That leaves us in a situation where we have no choice but to increase food production. FAO estimates that by about 28% leading to 2030. Now that to me is the challenge, but that's one layer of the challenge. I believe the biggest challenge is the uneven distribution of the supply of food and the areas of demand. And sticking in the middle is the conversation we need to have. It's the conversation around supply chains, the conversation around value chains. The only way we can link these two things is to address efficient capital to get the food from where it's grown to where it will be eaten. Again according to the FAO, we have roughly about 1.4 billion hectares of land that are usable in the future to expand agricultural production. And 90% of that 1.4 billion lies in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa. It's at this point I pull out my Zimbabwean passport and I'm happy to be African because we've got plenty of land. But again, it strikes the point of if food production can be done in Latin America and I believe in Oceania and in Africa, is capital going to those places to get that food from there to where it's needed? As a banker again, one of the key things we like to do is to follow the money, follow the capital. It has been very interesting watching the developments in the capital markets. What is closer to home for us is when we look at the size of our superannuation industry. It says that there is a lot of capital that is available, but one of the bigger struggles we have is for agriculture to stand out as a good home for that capital. I was very interested in the presentation earlier when they were describing to us the differences in the types of volatility. It's an explanation or a question I've had from many a fund manager. They are so uncomfortable with what they call the volatility of agriculture. And I believe the topic we have today around the supply chain, around the value chain is one other answer we can put on the table so that we can attract capital into agriculture. It needs to transform from being a commodity product into being a food product. We are feeding people. It's not just about sending large volumes of commodities to the port and we're done. Our challenge for agriculture going forward is how can we put food on the table? And across that, how can Australia participate in more and more of that process from the farm, from the paddock to the plate? So then I asked the question, how do we systematically transition Australian agriculture from good to great? I believe Australian agriculture is good. I believe for the size of land we have, the population we have, the amount of exports we're involved in and the reputation for quality that we've developed across the world, it is phenomenal. There's a lot that the world can learn from us. But how do we get it from good to great? That is the question I have been asking a lot of my clients. One of the things that I looked at was optimisation. I'll quickly rush through this. There's a topic I'm quite passionate about close to the end and I'll bring it home from there. Optimisation. I did a study within the dairy industry and I looked at the type of products we are exporting and the countries we are exporting them to. And I found something very interesting as a 2014. What I worked out is if we only improved by focusing on the product, what the product is, by that I mean if you're familiar with the dairy industry instead of sending liquid milk overseas in the form of UHT, if we actually send cheese, if we send yoghurt, if we send flavoured drinks, value added products, we could actually increase our exports by about 11%. If we kept the product mixed the same, but we changed the countries we sent it to, because there is a vast difference for how much we earn in value for every unit that we've exported. As an example, average figures for 2014, for every kilogram of milk solids that we sent to China, we got just about $2.70 whereas when we sent it to the Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia were talking north of $4 a kilo. So if you change that mix and if you try to send it more to the countries where we get higher value for every unit that we export, we could actually increase our value of exports by 3%. Now you put the two together, if you're more optimal about what you send and where you send it, it would blow up to about 30%, 27% increase in value of exports. Again, I think this is another channel that can get us optimizing our supply chains. Another thing that I've been talking to a lot of farmers and I've been chased out of a lot of rural towns when I talk about this point, cost of production. I always challenge the farmers to look at their cost of production, to understand it and to always have an element of their cost of production they are looking to reduce. Standard answers, TAF, we've done everything we can. There's absolutely nothing else we can do from here. And when they say that, I always say, well, you got to this point by looking. We can't stop looking for the next thing that will reduce our cost of production. We have to keep reducing our cost of production. Not only to be able to compete within Australia, but for us to be globally competitive, we have to constantly reduce our cost of production. With productivity, efficiencies, technology, whatever it is, we always have to be aiming to improve. We did some analysis around the grains infrastructure. And I believe infrastructure, like Rod said, is one thing that can really unlock agriculture for this country, really unlock global competitiveness, really unlock this proximity that we have to Asia is one thing that works at our advantage. But sometimes it is unfortunate that despite the proximity on distance, some of our global competitors can actually do a lot more than we can, even though we're so close. It is a good thing that our government has worked on the free trade agreements, whether it's China, Korea, Japan, they're working on TPP now. We've always had the ACN arrangements. Those relationships are bringing us closer to those countries and opening up channels not only for investment, but for optimizing our channels into delivering into their countries. And I think that is very, very important. I was presenting at a conference last week, and I sent them my slides. One of my slides was lessons from the mining boom for the dining boom. It's the catchphrase everybody's been throwing it around, beat on Twitter or LinkedIn. And they had someone who was helping to put my slides together, and he thought I'd made a typo. And he said lessons from the mining boom for the dining room. And I thought, oh, all right. And I had to get up there. And now talk about a dining room instead of a dining boom. But it actually made sense to me. I think for Australia, we have always been a value exporter. We have never been about the bulk commodity exports. So to my mind, that makes sense. And I ran some calcs after I saw that coming up. If we took all our agricultural exports, whatever's available for exporting, and we sent it nowhere else but to China, it would only last about a month of their import supply of total agricultural products. So indeed, we're not there to do the bulk, but we are there for the value. And some of our wine makers in the Yarra Valley have done really well. They're selling quality bottles of red. Certainly the beef industry is doing that by sending quality cuts into China. And I think that will always be the story for Australia. It is our story to go in there and take in the value add products. Now value add is this thing that I want to end on. I really think our agriculture needs to focus on value add. And by that I'm talking about, I'll give you an example, lessons from the mining boom for the dining room for every unit of coal and iron ore that we exported to China in what we can call the mining boom 2005 to 2015, if we call it that decade. For every $1 in US dollars that we earned from the coal and iron ore, China made three times as much when they sold steel and sometimes even back to us. So it's this thing of being a commodity supplier to the world, but someone else does the value add, someone else gets it right to the end consumer. And I believe there's some amount of dollars we're missing in there. There's a big argument to have, whether it's with Ken or with Rod around, well, what can we do around our labor over here in Australia and some of the other costs that you'd have to face to manufacture the steel here. But I am calling this the conversation we need to have. I don't believe we should continue dismissing our opportunities for value add. I really believe as our country begins to look more and more to agriculture, to lift up the GDP, to lift up its contribution to what's happening around Australia, we definitely need to have this conversation around the value add. A&Z released a paper on the grains industry this morning, I was a part of that project. One of the key anecdotes I picked up is, again, a story around value add. If we look at the amount of wheat that is used for feed into dairy and into beef, sitting at around about three million tons a year at the moment, A&Z estimates that will go up by about a million tons to about four. But if I compare what could happen to that one million extra tons of wheat, if it stays within the flour industry versus if it's applied to protein, again, it's 3.3 times as much value if we actually take this feed and give it to our dairy and give it to our beef exporters who then export that overseas. I mean, there's still quite a number of issues we need to look at around the value add within the beef and dairy sectors. But what I am pointing to here is if we can get our infrastructure set up right, such that it's building on a value add paddock to plate, I think there will be a lot more value that will be unlocked for Australian agriculture, and it will attract more and more capital. And once that capital is attracted, it will be a reoccurring cycle. Again, we will become agri giants of the world. And that, for me, is my vision, that Australia can get back to this place where, as a supplier of value added food products, we are leading in the world. And the answer is to unlock capital into our infrastructure, optimizing it, and therefore, we'll get all the benefits for all the richness that we have in our land. Unfortunately for you, Ken, I'm not going to show the picture at the end. I'll show the picture, but I won't share the story. It's another African story, but you can catch me at lunch. I'll share it with you.