 get to it. Secretary, let me just start with you. What does this mean? Why did it happen and what does it mean for U.S.-Japanese relations? Well first of all it's terrific to be here. Thank you Bob and to my colleagues on the podium here and to CSIS and to John Hammering in particular. These are wonderful forums and we're really grateful for the opportunity to explore something as significant as this historic Japanese election. It's important just basically to take a few minutes to appreciate something that the United States and Japan share which is this tremendous commitment to democracy. So what we've seen is an enormously important election that took place peaceably in which a very new generation of leaders have come to power in Japan. And so at a very basic level we recognize that we celebrate it and we appreciate it. And I'd like to just say earlier today President Obama reached Mr. Hatsuyama Sun. They had a very good conversation. He thanked Hatsuyama Sun for some statements of late importance of the U.S.-Japan relationship. He congratulated him on his victory and he told the Japanese leadership of the new party DPJ that the United States stands ready to work with Japan over the course of the next several weeks and months to ensure that our relationship is important going forward. This is a very early time. You have to take great care during initial steps. We're trying to send a very consistent message of our determination to work closely and to consult with Japanese friends. We have a schedule for fairly deep engagement over the course of the next several months to ensure the highest possible level of consultation. And I'm confident that in terms of the basics, the fundamental issues that unite the United States and Japan, that those will remain in place. Will there be some challenges along the way? Undoubtedly there will be. But the truth is that we've faced challenges over decades. We've surmounted them. We have worked closely together and I think we have a lot of confidence that we'll be able to do that over the course of the next several months. The watchword from our perspective right now is patience, commitment and solidarity. So we feel very, we're excited about the election. We're excited about the the path and the way forward. We take nothing for granted in terms of expectations associated with issues beyond our alliance. But we do think that the foundation is there for a very strong relationship going forward. Michael Green, you and many other analysts really nailed it. Everyone saw this coming. But it is still almost a shock that one party has held power since what 1955. And then they lose it's just a total turnover. I mean, they they not only lose but they they lose big 300 out of 485 seats or something like that. Why did it happen? Well, the Japanese voters in exit polls said why. It wasn't because of Mr. Hatayama only 3% said they made their vote because of him. It wasn't because of the DPJ's policies is because they were sick and tired of the Liberal Democratic Party's style of politics and governance and the inability of the government to provide. The Japanese economy has grown at about 1.9% a year for a decade. There's a sense that this just can't go on and things have to change. So this was a massive, massive victory for the opposition. Japanese elections likely have been massive. I mean, Koizumi for the LDP won a massive victory just a few years ago. So there's a lot of swing in the Japanese voters and they were ready to throw the bums out and give the new crew a try. And that's mainly what this was about. It's not so clear that the Japanese public knows what the new government will do or has complete confidence in what they'll do, but they're ready to throw the dice. In other words, this was not so much a vote for the new party as it was a vote against the old party. That's right. That's pretty clear. That's pretty clear. It shows up in the polling. There's some things that the Democratic Party promised. They're going to cut taxes and fees. They're going to stimulate the economy. They're going to empower civil society more. They're going to beat up the bureaucracy and decentralize government. Those things were fairly popular. But in terms of the real fundamental challenges in Japan, how to restore a long-term economic growth, what to do in foreign policy, there wasn't a clear affirmative vote for anything. It was just time to get rid of the old crew. And I talked to friends in rural Japan where I used to live who voted for the LDP their whole life. And they were giddy that they took the step and threw everyone out. But they weren't sure what came next. Steve, when something like this happens, America always becomes an issue, it seems like. It wasn't something that you heard anti-American statements from the new party as they were coming to this election. But you heard them talk about we need more independence from America. We need to separate. Is this going to make a difference in the Japan-American alliance? How much is this going to change? I was writing a piece today that Yukio Hatoyama is going to find his inner Obama. And what I meant by that is that a lot of things set on the campaign trail are going to be softened, delayed, priorities are going to be set. There's the great Ariel Sharon line once. We're sitting behind the Prime Minister's desk in Israel and he was responding and saying, you know, things look differently behind this desk and things will look differently behind Yukio Hatoyama's desk and what he puts forward. I think that this is an exciting election in part because to be blunt, many people feel that the LDP sort of lost its ability to be flexible in a lot of key areas. In the past, the LDP was able to reinvent itself or throw in different leadership. That sort of ended. But you also had the impression rightly or wrongly that many Japanese felt that the U.S.-Japan relationship in a whole variety of fronts was just stuck too much in the past. And I've been one to sort of suggest as well that there was a kind of brewing nationalism that I would consider sort of nasty right-wing nationalism. I'm very happy that now we're going to see a sort of negotiated nationalism and part of that will involve the relationship with the United States and where they take it. I don't, recently Yukio Hatoyama published in Huffington Post of all places and in other places a piece that was complaining about the negative consequences on Japan of American-led kind of manic neoliberalism, if you will. And I made a comment today that a lot of Americans actually feel what Hatoyama was saying as well and we've already had a shift here in this country to some degree on these issues. But I think that when the real strong man behind this Ichido Ozawa wrote his book on a blueprint for a new nation, a normal nation, in it, he didn't destroy or dismantle the U.S.-Japan relationship. He talked about the importance of becoming a greater stakeholder in that relationship, of sorting out Japan's interest more on their own and changing the image to the degree it still exists, of Japan just being a puppet or a satellite of American interest exclusively and having a greater role in play. And I think this is part of the Japanese narrative which has been growing and we should look at this as a healthy thing. And I predict a much healthier, lively and somewhat of reinvented U.S.-Japan relationship in part because of Hatoyama talking about the need to create some distance. I actually think it's a good thing as opposed to what some people see in a zero-sum sense that this is going to cost us influence. I don't believe that at all. Mr. Secretary, from, well, go ahead if you want to just comment on that. I like both of what Steve and Mike have said. I actually think that for the alliance to maintain its relevance and its influence over the course of the first part of this century, a degree of independence of confidence is absolutely essential on the part of Japan. So I actually think that these are not as just been reaffirmed. These are not in contrast with one other. They're actually essential. It's important that Japan feel confident and independent. And in fact, the United States supports that. We don't see any contradiction in terms of a close alliance and a greater independence in terms of doing business. I think we will find that even in an independent mindset, we will find ourselves taking very similar positions. I also think that one of the things that we've heard from DPJ friends is a desire to have a closer and deeper relationship in Asia with both South Korea and China. And that has sometimes been posited as something that the United States either is against or threatened by. Nothing could be further from the case. We would like to see Japan play a stronger leadership role as partners with friends in Asia. And we will support that. We also believe in that process, they will come to appreciate and understand the significance of the U.S. Japan alliance. So in terms of the basics, we are very comfortable. I would also suggest to you, we see this in the United States, I wrote a book on transitions with my friend, now Deputy Secretary Jim Steinberg. Transitions in democracies are difficult. This is going to be different than transitions that we've seen in the past in the LDP where two days, new government, everything's back in place. This is going to take a period of time. We're going to have to be patient. It's probably going to play out not just over a couple of weeks but months. New means and mechanisms of making decisions will be put in place. If I had one caution, I would say my own personal experience is some of the finest professionals that I've worked with in Japan are bureaucrats. And I would hate to see a period where by somehow they are positive as the enemy and somehow to be gone after. I think over time, many of our new friends that have just arrived in power will come to appreciate how strong these men and women are, how much they've served Japan's interests over the course of the last several decades. Of course, there can be changes but overall there's been a lot of very good work done and we hope to continue our professional relationships with these people. From the United States standpoint, what are the most critical, the most important parts of the line? What means most to us on this side? Well, let me just briefly if I could piggyback on what Kurt and Steve said. There is this rhetoric in this narrative that has come out of the Democratic Party about distance from the US closer to Asia. It's important for perspective to understand where the Japanese people are and I won't go through a lot of numbers but very recent polls when the Japanese public was asked, do you feel close to the United States? 74 percent said yes. When they were asked, do you feel close to China? Comparable numbers said no and across the board the public opinion in Japan is in some ways has never been better about the common interests and values of the US. So a lot of this rhetoric about distancing from the US moving to Asia I think comes out of a narrative that the Democratic Party in Japan used to try to attack the LDP because the government cooperated very closely with us because it was in Japan's national interest and they were seeing that rhetoric still. I think it's going to start dying out as these guys come into office and start looking at what do they do about North Korea, what do they do about the rise of China. There are very few issues actually where we really disagree with Japan. Now what's most important to us at a strategic level you know from the middle of the Second World War long-term strategic planners knew that the US had to have a strong relationship with Japan for all of Asia to be stable and our foreign policy on a bipartisan basis has been based on that for 60 years. We especially need it now with the rise of China not that either the Japan or the United States wants to contain China but to provide a stable environment where we can both engage China from a position of confidence. Japan is the second largest contributor still to the United Nations to most of the international institutions so for international organizations to work we've got to be with Japan and we are. We're very close to Japan in the G7 and G20 discussions. We need Japan on the North Korean nuclear problem and for our forward presence across a hemisphere our bases in Japan are absolutely critical. The DPJ has made some noises about changing the status of our forces blocking Okinawa. I don't think they're going to want to go there because I think the Japanese public also and the rest of the region recognizes how important these bases are but those are the things I would say are you know and that's a pretty long list of very critical interests. Do you see any of those changes coming or any of those things changing in any way? I think some change not the major things but I think that there'll be down the road not on the front end of this administration of the Hattoyam administration but but some changes in the edges some you know things that will make Kurt Campbell a bit crazy about wanting to renegotiate the rights of military servicemen on bases and discussions about sovereignty and decision-making. I think there'll be some of that. I think Kurt will be ingenious at getting the Japan Japanese to move beyond the abductee issue as the be all when they think about regional security and begin to look more there and I think that that you're going to see and what I hope happens comes into to reify something might just laid out. Japan is some of the best international bureaucrats in the system and one of the things that that I feel it has been working against that you had Koichi Tomatsura clean up UNESCO to the point where Jesse Helms actually supported going back you had in the High Commission for Refugees in peacekeeping in IAEA you've got in the Bretton Woods institutions and Japan used to combine a kind of commitment to security through a notion of interdependence in the system that in ways that were that took the pressure off the United States from being that player and I think there's been some muting of that I would love to see a return to it because I actually think it helped us it helped the relationship and it reminded people of the vitality importance of Japan. I think Japan if I can be blunt is despite the interest in this room and C-SPAN and all of the others is the taken for granted ally. I think Japan during the Gulf or the the second Gulf War during the Iraq War decided to stop challenging the United States on key trade issues economic issues and become our pal in a lot of things and to subordinate a lot of its tensions what's interesting if you don't have points of tension with another country particularly United States you're not taken seriously and I think somewhat the U.S.-Japan relationship has a lot less visibility than it should have given its weight because we didn't have that's why I'm very excited about the sort of democracy 2.0 moment as I see it in Japan and I think we're going to see Japan rise in relevance and significance and consequence in the eyes of Congress which I think has been under tending this relationship and under aware of it because they're having this so I when you look at this combined portfolio and asking you know going along what might say I think you're going to see renewed interest and you're going to see hopefully Japan come back to some of these these international institutions in which which it it's very useful for us and I think it will return them back to prominence international are we on the same page with Japan on on Korea on the on North Korea yes well yeah and South Korea both well in both respects yes I think even before the outreach from President Obama there have already been conversations between Hatsuyama son and his Korean catapult the president and and they have underscored their desire to work more closely together and I think one of the things that we've seen over several years is a tendency in certain circumstances for a variety of reasons to suddenly see South Korean Japanese rate Japanese South Korean relations take a nose dive and ultimately that's not in our interests either we want to see our two closest allies working more closely together if I may say focusing more on the future than on the past and I think we see very real prospects of that going forward so in that that's our basic issue and I think we're going to see very good work in this area going forward on North Korea it's still early I think I think at a very general level the United States and Japan share basic beliefs we will not accept a nuclear North Korea we are committed to a diplomatic process whereby we through the six-party framework we try in some future period to sit down with North Korea if they accept the commitments that they have taken in 2005 and so I think you will see that the United States and Japan will work closely together at North Korea and so I I mean I hate to say this but we are pretty much in violent agreement here about areas where I think we can work together I think one of just the real challenges is I don't think we fully appreciate how difficult it is how wholesale a change this is likely to be in terms of a whole new group of people remember this is not just a new group of people coming into the executive branch this is a new group of people many of whom have never been in power who are not only going to be in the legislative branch but will also be serving in some capacities in the executive branch there is a tremendous discipline and rigor associated with power and it can be brutal it can be very challenging and we see that playing out not only in the United States and transitions we see it playing out in other places this is a whole new generation of people who are experiencing this together for the first time and so I think I think one of the things that we have to be careful about is not to have unrealistic expectations in the short term about clear coherent policy statements it may take time for them to be able to fully enunciate and I think we have to be patient and also understand that there are going to be some stray flares and some comments made that perhaps make people anxious and recognize that we have to be much more focused on the ballast in the boat which are these larger issues that really unite the United States and Japan go ahead I just wanted to add one point to affirm something Kurt said that it hasn't been getting a lot of press but this party with 300 plus members is going to have to hire staff people train staff people educate them about legislative process when you get beyond the sort of sexy topics that you're fighting over 99 percent of the legislative work that that party is going to be responsible with doesn't get all the headlines there's a whole infrastructure within the LDP that's been there in place for decades that essentially much of the sort of internal organs of policy and legislative work don't exist in any mature way within the DPJ not to the same level and so there's another sort of the back shop questions which I think are even more disconcerting and can handicap the government and actually I think while you'll have a few public hangings of bureaucrats ultimately those bureaucrats end up becoming a vital part of it because so I just wanted to throw that out there that they're going to have a lot of handicaps there's also the DPJ has had the luxury of not having to come to a conclusion on key economic and foreign policy issues because they rode this wave of resentment against the guys currently in power and there are a variety of views on all the issues we've been talking about there's not a clear consensus within the party on whether they should continue refueling operations in the Indian Ocean to help the coalition in Afghanistan what to do about the Okinawa agreement I suspect what will happen is that the politicians who learn how to work with bureaucracy are going to be the ones who have the information the insights the power to actually govern and survive so the DPJ has said they're going to have politicians run everything the smart politicians are the ones who will marry themselves to the right bureaucracy and get things done I also think Kurtz articulated exactly the right strategy for the Obama administration don't put pressure be patient help work through a strategy together focus on a relationship between Atiyama and President Obama there are issues they're going to have to make decisions on them they're going to have to decide what to do about the Indian Ocean they're going to have to make decisions on North Korea policy what worries me a little bit is this is not at all a criticism before Kurtz said I think he's right what worries me is having not resolved some of these internal contradictions this new government may not be able to come up with a decision and as a default position will sort of punt and pass on key decisions and last thing I'd say is I think Steve's right there are people like Ambassador Matsuda and others who are in international organizations we should be actively supporting more Japanese leadership and personnel in the UN and elsewhere what I would disagree I think if I understood you Steve was the idea Good, we need disagreement the idea that Japan being difficult and becoming interesting is good for US-Japan relations or Japan's position in the world a lot of the DPG narrative has been very narrowly focused on the US we're sending people to Iraq and Afghanistan because of the US we're doing this because of the US what I hope will happen is the new government will come in and they'll step back stop worrying about the US so much and think about whether there are policies on Afghanistan on economic reconstruction in Iraq on revitalizing their own economy the international financial crisis think about whether these are credible international because what is credible to us is going to be credible to India to Britain to Canada to Korea and so I'm hoping that they'll step out a little bit of this US-Japan prism which they've criticized the government for and step back and think through what will make Japan influential and credible globally and if they do that I think they'll move in the right direction Can I say one other thing on this Bob if I may just the other thing is let's reflect that our Japanese new Japanese friends in government are not just talking to us they're talking with a range of other countries it is gratifying how many other countries have gone to the Japanese and said look job number one yes we want good by lot of relationships with you but make sure the US-Japan relationship is strong and so they're hearing that not just from the United States people in government and out of government but from a whole range of countries not just in Asia I want to go to questions in the audience sooner than we normally do because actually we just have so many experts here today and first I'd like to call on the Japanese Ambassador Pujisaki Mr. Ambassador would you like to make some comments here or would you like to even ask a question and would you go to the microphone there's a microphone we'd love for you to go to the microphone here yes yes please it's a lot of cameras in my country they're saying that if the three people get together would produce Buddha's wisdom with these three pundits huge wisdoms that there's not much to add to what they've said and especially the new government hasn't started yet and I'm down in the position to interpret what Mr. Harayama and what the VPJ is saying but I'd like to just make a couple points on economy I think what Mr. Harayama is saying is that he's not denying market forces and global but if we need everything to market alone it may not produce the best result for the people so that we adjust it and the guiding principle of adjustment is fertility the concept and that is in short to care about others and I think as Steve said it is also here in the United States as well that government is having a bigger role in adjusting economy the second point is about US-Japan relations Mr. Harayama is saying that he's seeking for constructive and future oriented relations between Japan and United States and I think it is true that there are some differences between incumbent government and the incoming government on some of the issues however what is most important is that DPJ as well as LDP is saying that Japan's relations will continue to be the cornerstone for the foundation of Japan's foreign policy my last point is that I've been always saying that in managing important relations like Japan-U.S. three points are important I've been saying it it has three nos no surprise no over politicizing things and lastly no taking for granted and I think these are more true than ever when the two administration gets together that's my personal comment thank you very much all right other questions from the audience if you could come could you come up you go ahead you're holding your hand up there you go I think it works I think it works thank you very much it's not working thank you I'm Mekisawa Tokasaka of CSIS I'd like to ask you ask a simple but difficult question hard question to particularly particularly to Dr. Campbell under the Japanese political atmosphere of continuing and increasing frustration seeking for change it is naturally getting difficult to manage the sensitive issues such as Okinawa issues for or for both Japanese government and U.S. government both and this brings any possibility that U.S. government allows or give Japanese government some room of maneuver such as giving more time to cool down so on the relocation issue of U.S. marines U.S. marines to Guam or to to accept some new proposal from new Japanese government to review some U.S. forces stationary stationary and agreement and so on thank you okay Dr. Perry would you like a start on that yeah and I know Michael want to say I'll just say something directly first of all one of the things they teach you at the State Department is to repeat what your spokesman has said so resty resty dimming taught me that it took years to learn but I finally I finally mastered it and I think on this particular issue I would refer you to what our State Department spokesman said about our expectations about going ahead here I would just say however there are expectations that we're going to make progress the issues on Okinawa have been with us a long time we've made some progress and we'd like to continue and it's very important to us and we feel like we've worked closely with the government in Japan we're going to continue to work closely but I would also stand by the statement that our press secretary made yesterday thanks what is going to be the relationship between Japan and China dude I'd just like to throw that on the table do you all see that change it's going to be a fun and interesting roller coaster ride I in my view I think Japan is is going to be in a position where it has to try to work with other states in moving you know 1.1 billion as Clyde Press would call them new capitalists into a different into a different arena and somehow deal with China's interest in pretensions when I was at the I tell a joke that it was actually a real issue that a few years ago I was in Beijing and visited the director of policy planning at China's ministry of foreign affairs and I said what are you working on and he says how to keep you Americans distracted in small Middle Eastern countries and I think that at the time there was significant criticism by Japan privately communicated to the Bush administration of the absence of high level American government officials at key summits in Asia and one of the things I was very pleased by with Secretary Clinton is and she's doing it globally is a real presence going to Japan first being in Asia putting in FaceTime it really makes a difference because I think that there has been some distraction because of other issues and I think that that helps Japan somewhat deal with China and its growth and its pretensions in the region the same time Japan's going to invest in China but it's also got important identity and history issues that I hope that you see more mature leadership on both sides because I've often said that one of the negative consequences the moral hazards of the strong American military engagement in the region is it prompts irresponsible behavior by Korean Japanese and Chinese leaders who want to exploit on a short-term basis you know a kind of virulent nationalism because they know there's not going to be conflict because we're there so they can get away with it and I hope we we move out of that phase I hope that doesn't mean that the conclusion is that if the U.S. pulls military out of Asia they'll learn to be great encouraging responsible that's not a anyway yeah I'm not sure we want to test that thesis necessarily learned that in any administration here will but Japan-China Asia has historically had hierarchical relationships along the big powers and Lee Kuan Yew and others have said this is the first time where Japan and China are powerful at the same time right now China's moving up but Japan's got an awful lot of national power and it's deeply uncomfortable you can see it in the opinion polls and the deep anxiety about China in Japan it's shiny submarines circumnavigating Japan it's nuclear weapons it's Chinese blocking Japan and diplomatic diplomatic negotiations around the world including the U.S. Security Council effort it's poison Gyoza dumplings it's it's pretty broad and yet at the same time China has been Japan's largest training partner larger than us for about four years now it's a very complicated mix of rivalry and interdependence that fundamentally won't change in the near term I think this government has been very clear this new government Hatigama, Okada and others they want to try to move closer to China they won't emphasize history issues that's a good thing as Kurt pointed out it's in our interests for Japan and China to work towards a closer relationship it doesn't help us when there's tension I think Steve's right when he says roller coaster though because I'm not sure how sustainable that is and there may even be a little bit of a danger that if the Hatigama government tries too hard they're going to start provoking a reaction at home because of the deep anxiety about China so complicated roller coaster but some good initial steps do you want to say add anything to that no I want to all right who's all right right here John San with CTI TV of Taiwan a quick follow-up to John San with CTI TV of Taiwan a quick follow-up to Bob's question the question is for Secretary Campbell and other panelists we all know that Taiwan has long been a very important factor in Japan China relationship and U.S.-China relationship how do you see the Taiwan being affected in the new Japan-China relationship and the new Japan-U.S. relationship thank you very much okay well I see continuity in the U.S. sense I think the administration has started off very clearly in terms of our international commitments we worked very closely over the course of the last several weeks in a in a in a humanitarian effort in response to the tragedy in Taiwan with the Typhoon and I think you're going to see dialogue and appropriate interaction unofficial interaction between the United States and Taiwan I'm going to leave it to Mike to talk about what we think we might expect to see between Japan and Taiwan and indeed other countries I would say one thing about the overall campaign generally there has been probably more of a focus on domestic issues and financial issues than there was on international issues that doesn't mean anything necessarily going forward but I think as a general proposition that was the case in terms of specifics outside of the U.S.-Japan relations and some general statements about wanting to have a closer relationship with Asia one of the positives in some respects for any incoming government is that they are in some respects unencumbered by an enormous number of commitments the platform is relatively general and I don't think actually there's been much said about this or other issues but I'd leave it to Mike and others to comment on that I think there will be a variety of views on Taiwan inside the DPJ just as there was a variety of views within the LDP just as there's a variety of views within the Republican and Democratic parties if you're watching this closely then I'd see who's foreign minister because there are some people in the DPJ who you want to do a lot to approve relations with China and may cut corners on relations with Taiwan to do it and there are others who are quite pro-Taiwan so I won't go into names but there are different views on this but in general I think Kurt's right I think the thawing of cross-strait relations has made it easier for everyone else to manage their Taiwan policy at least for now and so I wouldn't expect any big changes okay next question here right here she's got a mic there I think Paul Eckert of Reuters news agency following on that theme you know that the and I think this is probably a Mike Green question the DPJ is a broad umbrella of factions and some are right-leaning and I'm wondering if it's possible that you know the sort of the history view that they're going to probably deal with Asia will raise hackles on that side of the party and you could have another cabinet minister saying something or doing something provocative you'll recall that during the non-LDP government of the early 90s they were also plagued by that because they assembled a group of right-leaning people in their cabinet you know I think there's breathing room on the history issue I don't I think that that Hatsuyama's promise not to go to the shrine it did not cause any great backlash in the political debate in Japan I think I think on the history issue there's for the time being there's a little bit of room and I think that there will not be pressure within the DPJ but you're right to point out that there are very different views within the party there are probably 40 or 50 members of the DPJ who are as conservative as the most conservative LDP Kurt makes a very good point about where they're going to focus their political capital and I think they're as Kurt suggests they're going to focus on changing the domestic political economy because the reality is we're all excited about this big change but it's possible that in three months or six months these guys will be gone some crisis or some mismanagement could cause realignment they have to win in the upper house election next summer so if you're Rishiro Ozawa the architect of this victory and the guy who wants to win next summer for the DPJ you don't want to push foreign policy issues that split your party you don't want to fight with the Obama administration President Obama has 82% support in Japan Hatsuyama-san has somewhere between 30% and 50% support there's not a whole lot of political hate to be made with a big fight with the U.S. so I think that's one more reason why you'll see a lot more focus on changing the domestic political economy starting to steal away interest groups and constituencies from the LDP and get ready to really knock it to them which is what Rishiro Ozawa the Karl Rove of Japan is really all is really all about yeah but what I'd like to just quickly Karl or Rishiro Ozawa but I'd like to just quickly as long as your point got to a very good point in the early 1980s Henry Kissinger wrote an article critiquing the LDP and saying one of the reasons you could negotiate with the LDP or know what they're doing because it had all these factions and each faction thought something different about policy I remember it because it was my first letter to a newspaper that was published and say you know Dr. Kissinger with all due respect you're quite wrong because the factions were not driven by policy differences but power differences but Henry Kissinger's article which if it were resurrected would be completely true about the DPJ today where it's not just about power inside the party you're going to have an incredible policy heterodoxy among a very large apparatus institution which they haven't figured out quite how to discipline that yet and how to create conflict management mechanisms to move forward and we've seen that in the sort of rotating leadership with you know Khan and Okada and Hato Yan or all of themselves not and Seiji Mahara and others are going to have to figure that out but it's not just them it's other folks too somebody ought to I'll look up that Kissinger piece and bring it back but in that sense that's a real handicap when it comes to moving and they've got to figure that out soon and I don't from my sources I don't think they have I would just say that Dr. Kissinger called earlier and asked if you were going to be here to be here yeah it's also just he always knows it's also not clear that the DPJ will replicate exactly this factional approach to politics that the LPJ did and the truth is that that approach sometimes makes it difficult to do the kind of policy concessions dialogue implementation that you see in successful democracy so I agree very much you know jury's still out and and we'll see but this is an enormous party which with a very wide set of views on almost every imaginable issue you know factions were easier because at least factions were easier and this might be a bit of more of this Ambassador Paul Wolpowitz is over here this has sort of been addressed I guess for the last question but I'm curious whether any of you think that the desire to improve relations with China might push Japan to do something more than just fewer visits to the Asakuni Shrine it's striking when you compare Japan and Germany how what a great job the Germans have done in addressing their past and what a poor job the Japanese have done and they talk about improving relations with China and yet this always comes up as an issue with China do you think there's any possibility of with all the other issues they have to address that they might do something more than just not too many visits to Yasakuni Joe and Lai said in the early 70s that this history issue would take at least three generations to reconcile and I've never known how long a generation is but I don't think we're there yet 20 years 20 years 20 years well not too long from now the the problem the difference obviously I think between Japan and China and France and Germany is that that that the Chinese have not done what France obviously could do which is internal reconciliation about their own history and the history of the Communist Party and in my view until China can reconcile internally it won't happen with Japan not to put all the burden on China but that's one big obstacle on the Japanese side the more taboos fade and the more debate there is the harder it is to keep people quiet and the more voices will come out on history issues that make it difficult but as I was saying earlier I think we are entering a period where at least there will be some thawing and maybe we'll sort of ratchet it down for the longer term or maybe we'll be in for a roller coaster a little while right here thanks so much Chris Nelson Nelson report Mike said he was going to write my question for me he forgot so I'm going to ask her all on my own we've already mentioned that one of the potential disconnects if not properly coordinated is how do we talk to and with North Korea and about what and the administration has been very consistent in saying we're not going to talk to them except in terms of negotiations about denuclearization along the lines of the previous agreement there is a lot of pressure to go and negotiate with them to see if that's it's possible to negotiate which gets us into a chicken and egg problem and until the Japanese work out how they're going to think about us dealing with the North it might be helpful if you could walk us through a bit how you're seeing this chicken and egg problem at the moment what's the difference between discussions and negotiations and Steve Bosworth going to talk but not deal unless they say in advance it's going to be about the bomb so that sort of thing yeah thank you much of this is as you know Chris very far ahead of where we are right now and I think I think it's well known to many people here following Asia Steve Bosworth and Ambassador Sun Kim are on a plane today for consultations with our allies in Japan South Korea and China to talk about next steps no commitments have been made about either talks discussions diplomacy negotiations at all nothing vis-a-vis North Korea we're at an early stage in which we are presenting some ideas about how to go forward with both Japan South Korea and China I think the basics of that Chris are still very clear we are committed to the six-party framework we think that the most important agreements with North Korea are embedded in that process particularly in 2005 we I think are united in our belief that we must see commitment and a clear and firm commitment from North Korea backed up by irreversible steps that commitment to a nuclear-free North Korea and we have other issues that we're going to want to discuss associated with proliferation and the like overall we're at the earliest possible stages we've just come out of six or seven months of some severe provocations we continue to implement UN resolution 1784 and I would just underscore on that despite some of this discussion about next steps in discussions or dialogue one of the most interesting things that has happened in recent months is other countries not just in Asia but in the Middle East and others are beginning to take steps to implement 1784 and aspects of the PSI and I think that is an indication that it's just not the United States and other countries in Asia but countries in the Middle East and elsewhere that appreciate and understand that some of these provocative steps transfers of dangerous technologies are not only bad for countries in the region but also globally so I think overall what you will see over the course of the next several months are closer interactions with Korea clearly they're in the process of reevaluating their own interactions with North Korea China has been in the process of a rather deep reflection on North Korea now for several months and clearly we have to give Japan some time to formulate if they're going to have a different set of perspectives on North Korea we've got to give them time and we recognize that their views on North Korea and this process of the five parties it's essential to keep them engaged so that's that's where we are Chris and so I can't get in advance to you what will look like negotiations and what is our specific approach to various issues because we're actually well before that in this process all right do we have any women that want to ask a question so far it's been an all-male show there's one right there this lady right here Michelle Jemrusko-Kiyoto news setting aside the larger security and economic and other issues for the moment could you name a few things in the short term that the new Japanese government can do to reassure the US Mr. Campbell you mentioned not throwing out the bureaucrats as the enemy and Mr. Green you said the China engagement would be good are there other things that they could do in the next few months that we could see Michelle I'm sorry I didn't recognize you over there can I just say just on the issue of the bureaucrats that is not a you know government coordinated position on the part of the United States it's you know like you know we got together today and said we've got to keep the bureaucrats that's not what I was suggesting I was making a personal observation of the people that I have worked with and so despite your job Kurt nobody looks at you as a bureaucrat I know I'll leave that to the side but I think there's some issues that we're going to look to see commitment on the part of Japan the UN General Assembly is coming up the truth is as both of my colleagues have underscored Japan's leadership role in the United Nations is just essential and it's a leadership role it's not a followership followership role they take initiatives on a range of issues we want to see that activism continue at the United Nations and we'll see hopefully some evidence of that later this month I'd like to see a continuing commitment from Japan on climate change on the issues associated in the lead up to some very difficult negotiations in Copenhagen and I think there are a range of other international global health issues were coming into the flu season Japan has played an incredibly important role in some of the aspects associated with the early steps on H1N1 so I mean those are some basic steps but I think overall continuing a course that Japan has been on will be an important contribution to maintenance of peace and stability and sort of a activist global role I think the I'm not in the government so I can say this I think the kind of tone in the New York Times and Huffington Post article about globalization and American led capitalism is all fine during a election campaign the transition Curt and I have worked on election campaigns our candidates have said things that we kind of you know scratched our heads and some advisors get something into a speech and everyone else in the party regrets it and these things happen an early indication not an early I won't give examples an early indication to me will be if this rhetoric stops when they come into power September of 1617 whatever it is it's not particularly helpful it helps explain the philosophy you don't need it when you're in government that would be one thing I think right now my sense is that the DPJ is testing in the US to see what they can get away with from the various promises they made about stopping ships in Afghanistan in the Indian Ocean and this and that and the other thing and an early good sign would be if they stop asking which of their wish list they can have and start a dialogue with the administration about what they can do you know instead of saying we don't want to send ships in the Indian Ocean a dialogue based on what can we do in Afghanistan let's put the ships aside for now what can we do and here's here's the resources Japan has that kind of proactive agenda with the Obama administration here's what you know yes we can here's the kinds of things Japan can do and they can you know it'll be their decision and obviously there'll be a menu but right now my sense is the interactions are what we said in the campaign we wouldn't do this is it okay if we don't do it move away from the can't do start an agenda and a dialogue and here's what Japan can do that would immediately be recognized not only in the U.S. but in other countries as a sign these are these are people who really want to keep Japan in the in the international I was going to say in the fight but in the in the problem solving business internationally you know if I can you know a short while ago a few months ago the Japan American Society of Southern California had its hundredth anniversary and I went back for that a big dinner Universal Studios maybe some of you were there Ambassador Fuji Saki was there and this is all cleared by him to put on the record and I I had joked with him about the importance of Tarou Asso the former prime minister being Barack Obama's first official guest at the White House first official foreign leader guest and I asked him what how how high the price was and he goes oh Steve that's such you know decade old thinking we're not in that anymore but at the point you know in my view of why Barack Obama invited Tarou Asso to to that to have that place is very important is on the international economic questions I don't believe that the global financial heart attack is over I think there are significant challenges ahead on how to deal with the problem of developing countries Japan still sits on today the largest discretionary capital pile in the world larger than China in terms of what we can do the financing and whatnot is very important Japan has severe economic problems but what it can do and the parameters of what it can do in the international economic order are absolutely vital and I think in my view the impression is that Japan has been somewhat internally consumed and not playing at its weight if you will in this international level so one of the things I think it needs to do and one of the things I think Barack Obama is very focused on is our partners and co-stewards if you will of a revitalized international economy and Japan has got to move into that I think is moving into that forward and I think that Hatoyama and others need to show their ability to play in that game I like both of these I like both of these I would just say one thing I'm just struck by as we're talking this we're assuming or at least I've actually assumed that we will have sort of a placid period you know leisurely in a sense where a new government can come up to speed the truth is global politics has a way of testing new leaders right whether the United States or elsewhere and we just don't know whether we'll have that luxury in Japan or elsewhere can you imagine Joe Biden saying in six months Yukio Hatoyama will be tested that's right the chairman the chairman of CSIS in the audience Senator Nunn would you like to give us our final question or maybe have a comment here first bob I want to thank TCU and the chief of school of journalism for sponsoring this series of programs this has been an outstanding panel today Kurt we're glad to have you back Steve Mike we're glad to have you here you've done a great job bob and we appreciate the school of journalism both naming the school after you and also assigning you to this important task working with CSIS is terrific I have been reminded today by the panel I think unanimous view that politicians should not own their own try to frame questions that we need bureaucrats and staff people for that purpose but nevertheless I'll close with the one question and that is energy and environment did it come up much in the campaign or the nuclear issue were either any of those big issues or do you expect any significant change in the new government I'm thinking now the headline from this panel which is former and current bureaucrats and staffers tell Japan be good to bureaucrats and staffers hire more well the Steve made a really good point about Japan not getting credit for all it can do and all it has done significant pledges to the IMF but also very significant targets for climate change and the DPJ has actually in their campaign manifesto one upped the LDP in the cuts that they have pledged to make in emissions I think it they'll find it very hard but they are definitely setting their pen very far forward on climate change and that's one on nuclear power it'll be interesting the DPJ has a bit of a more of a mixed set of views on nuclear power in Japan but I think generally Japan will keep as everyone has had to moving in the direction of more nuclear power they have on the proliferation side of energy they have put out a lot of signals they want to do more on reducing nuclear weapons you know on article six of the NPT conventional test pan treaty not a lot of specifics yet but I think there's a lot of potential there for the U.S. and other countries to work with the new government to see what Japan can do in terms of realistic policies to to reduce nuclear weapons and to deal with proliferation there's a lot of idealism in what they've put out I think the mainstream in Japan is still very very concerned about the credibility of the extended nuclear deterrent we shouldn't be confused by this yes there's an idealistic overlay and a desire to do this but right beneath it is a real concern about the credibility of our extended deterrent so this is a really ripe area for us to not only reassure Japan but I think for Curt and others to come up with a very proactive agenda to take some of these ambitious views that the new government has on nuclear weapons and put them into practice Steve why don't you just very quickly you know without I agree with everything Mike said on the nuclear weapons issue on the energy environment issue these were very big issues I mean because in the DBJ was essentially talking about quality of life issues at the local level and trying to improve that but then also jumping from that to sort of global quality of life and it sounded very Obama-esque I actually think Hatoyama sounds like a very Obama-esque character and frankly from a policy perspective of talking to the policy staff again to make a play for the bureaucrats there within the DBJ they see lots of opportunities given Japan's particular skill sets and strengths of really being the innovative driving force of green economy and I think much more so frankly than the United States is in a position to be and so on on energy environment I think they see these things as areas of collaboration strength skill we recently had and I think they look at the move the United States is moving in and we had the chairman of the folks that run the Shinkansen in here recently trying to say we'll give you our technology to help make the Shinkansen work in the United States they see all of this is essentially a business economic opportunity for revitalization of Japan and the DPJ has been has been trumpeting that so Secretary, what are two clothes available for us? First of all, terrific I hope when we have our next meeting on the US-Japan relations we have the same number of people here and that we can sustain this interest and just want to as long as you're here they'll be here yeah, I'm sure that's the case and other fired bureaucrats yeah and thank both my colleagues for being here gentlemen, thank you all in court TCU and CSI thanks all of you thank you, Mike thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you thanks