 Hey everybody, what's going on? I am Greg Sosman, joined today by Jim Sonis of Fandle. We are one week out of baseball season, so it's time to talk about some teams that are and are not going to make the playoffs. What's going on, Jim? Yeah, I'm excited, Greg. It's going to be a fun year for sure, having a full season on our plates once again, hopefully less chaotic than last year for sure. So I'm pumped to get things underway, pumped to get MLB DFS back. We'll be talking about that next week. So it's a good time. How are you doing? I'm feeling good, man. I had a salary cap draft last night that was way too long, as these things are, which is why I'm here to put DFS. So I don't have to worry about the salary cap five hour long events. But nevertheless, we're here today to talk not about a draft, but instead about teams that are going to make and miss the playoffs. We begin in the NLEs, where you believe the Atlanta Braves are not going to be playing in October. That's plus 220 right now at the Fandle Sportsbook. Obviously, the LES, a competitive division. Why do you think the Braves are one of the odd teams out? Exactly what you said. I think the NLEs is a very tough spot. We have talked about the Mets being high on them on the show before. And I think that's still true. I think that that rotation will be great. I think the offense should be solid for Francis Colleen Dorbin there. That makes it tough for the Braves from the division. They're still a good bet to win the division for sure. But it's tougher for sure with the Mets being there. Also, I don't think the Nationals are totally out of contention yet. The Phillies could be okay. So the NLEs is pretty tough. And the reason that matters a lot this year is because we're going to see one wildcard spot in the NL West. You can just write that in stone right now. The Dodgers of the Padres, whoever does not win the NL West, is probably going to be in the playoffs. So what that means is if you don't win your division, you're effectively fighting for one wildcard spot. And it does help that the NL Central is not super tough. And that could certainly aid the NLEs for sure. But it's still a difficult numbers game for a team that I think has a decent number of question marks on this Braves team. There is upside for sure. You know, this rotation is solid and this got guys who I like. Ian Anderson's fond. Drew Smiley is pretty good. Having those guys is your 3-4 options. That's not too bad. We could see Mike Soroka back at some point too. But Charlie Morton showed some pretty serious signs of age last year. We do have a lot of volatility with a guy like Smiley because I like him a lot. But there's also the chance that he doesn't carry the gains that he saw last year into 2021 as well with a new team. We don't know if Soroka will be back coming off that injury. So there are a lot of question marks here not to mention that that defense could struggle with Marcella Zuna having to play outfield and something that, you know, weren't hoping for if the DH had come to the NL. So I think there are enough question marks with this Braves team to bet them a plus 2-20 to miss. The implied odds of that are 31.3 percent. Fangrass has the Braves missing the playoffs 34 percent of the time. So there is some value there. And I think that there is justifiable reason to believe that value is legitimate. So it's not a situation where I think the Braves would be bad. I just think that it's kind of a tough numbers game with the Mets being good, the Nationals being good, the Phillies too, and with there being effectively just one wildcard spot available in the National League. So not a situation where I think the Braves are bad. I just think this number is good. I think that the National League is a tough spot to be in. So those are the factors that lead me to betting the Braves to miss the playoffs this year. You have a good run down there. Even though that Braves rotation does have the ability to be really pretty good here, Jim. There's a lot of other factors that play because one wildcard spot gone to the NL West automatically. And then the NL East is going to be a dogfight between the Nationals and the Mets and the Phillies and the Braves. And the Marlins weren't too bad last year either. So this is going to be a really, really tough division. Getting the plus money here, I think it's well worth it. As good as Braves can be, there is a world in which they just don't make the playoffs. Plus money right now over the fans of the sportsbook makes it worth placing a wager on. You mentioned that one of the good things or I guess the kind of opposite things that you were saying about the Braves and their chances of making the playoffs was that the NL Central could be in a down year. And I know a lot of that is because you're just out on the St. Louis Cardinals this year. We've talked a lot about that over the last month. But one of the teams that you are in on probably because of that is the Chicago Cubs. It feels like the Cubs has been left for dead a little bit. You know, I feel like people think this dynasty is over. Joe Madden is gone. And it's time for them to rebuild. Maybe it is. And Theo FC not being there anymore certainly contributes to that. But they do still have Chris Bryant in a contract year. And they still do have Bobby Baez in a contract year. And Anthony Rizzo in a contract year. A lot of guys that need to play hard in order to get paid in this upcoming offseason. And that matters. And we'll see if they finish the year with the Cubs. But if all of a sudden Chicago gets on a roll, we may have something here. Yeah. And I think that that's the key here where we've been talking about the Cubs in the sense that they could be sellers if they struggle early. That's very true. They could finish fourth in this division. They could be selling by May, in which case I look very stupid. But there's also the other chance where this offense could hit them to a good record to start. If they do get off to a fast start, there's also the potential they could be buyers to potentially bolster that rotation and make themselves actual contenders for a playoff spot in 2021. We're focusing all on the negative here, not focusing on the upsides. And I think that there is possibility we hit that upside because this offense, which you alluded to, could be pretty good still. Looking at my power rankings heading into 2021, they have the Cubs as being the best offense in the NL Central. They are ranked 13th. No other offense in this division is ranked better than 90. So what that does is it's going to keep them in game and it's going to allow them the potential to snag some wins they otherwise would not get. And if you are on the right side of variance early on, that's the situation you want to take advantage of. We saw this with the Marlins last year. They got off to a good start and they decided to try to capitalize on that by adding some talent to their roster. I think the Cubs are a team that could be in a similar position for this year. So we're focusing on them being sellers because they could get off to a slow start, but we're not focusing on the other side here where they could be buyers. Especially if they get off to a good start, that could be enough in the NL Central to propel them to potentially adding more talent to this team. I just think that it's a high variance division with a team that has a good offense. And I'm willing to buy into that strength when I'm getting such a long number of plus 340 implied odds there. 22.7 percent just for the Cubs to make the playoffs, either as a division winner or as a wild card. I'll take that at that number. Given this offense, given the chance that they could get off to a fast start, I think there are enough things here to get me to buy it. They could be fourth early on. They could decide to sell off those parts, try to rebuild for 2022. I could look very stupid, but I think at this number that's a risk we're taking given the possibility for the reverse to happen. The 40 is just too large of a number to ignore right now, the Fando Sportsbook, because there is that other side, like you mentioned, Jim, where things can go right for Chicago and they make this playoff push and they don't trade any money. We know that they do have money, although they are trying to rebuild and reevaluate their assets, trading away you, Darvish, in the off season. But there is that possibility where things just go right and they make a push for the playoffs here. At plus 340, with the talent that this team has in that lineup, I think it's tough to ignore. The final team that you are choosing not to make the playoffs is in the ALEs. First time talking about the American League here and that brings us to the Tampa Bay Rays. Last year's World Series American League pennant winner, well, they did what they always did. They broke it down after that. Trading away Blake Snell, they're acing, getting no longer. Do they have Charlie Morton either? It's a lot of new parts here. At Tampa, they always try to find a way to rebuild it, but they need all the pieces to fall into place in order for everything to go right. And part of that is the Yankees not having everything go right for them and the Blue Jays not having everything go right for them as well. Well, this is the toughest one because the Orioles and the Red Sox are there and they seem to be easy to easy to beat. The other two teams, not so much. You believe the Rays at minus 134 are not going to make the playoffs? Yeah, this is a tough one because historically I've always been a Rays backer. I feel like I've bet them far more than I should. Last year was good, but for the most part it has not been. I think that it's weird to be on the other side of this, but it comes down to what you said. There have been a lot of losses on this team and it's a very tough division. The Yankees probably going to win the AL East. So if you're going to make the playoffs in the American League East, you're going to do so via the wild card. That could happen for sure because the Rays are a good team. You're fighting with the Blue Jays there, playing a lot of games against them. I don't think the Red Sox are as bad as Perception. I'm not super high on them by any means. I don't want to bet them, but it does lower my enthusiasm around both the Blue Jays and the Rays, especially at minus 134. You're fighting with the either the Twins of the White Sox win those wild card spots. You're fighting with either the Astros or the A's from those wild card spots. So it's similar to our discussion with the Braves where I don't think this is a bad team. I just think they're in kind of a tough crunch with only five teams making the playoffs. So the Rays, I think they're very interesting. Austin Meadows, I'd expect to be much better this year than he was last year. I think that's going to help them quite a bit. They've got some other really talented hitters on that team as well. It's just a tough numbers game when you're fighting with the Yankees so often, with the Blue Jays so often, and all their improvements. In fact, they've had everyone get hurt or the past week or so. That could help the Rays for sure. Right now the applied odds here, 57.3% for the Rays to miss the Division. Number Fire has been missing the playoffs 60.7% of the time. There's some edge there. So I like the Rays a lot. They're a team that I have benefited from plenty in the past and have always been in favor of. But I think in this specific scenario where the Division is so tough and they have lost a lot of key pieces, I could see them missing the playoffs just by a situation where they have a tough schedule and they run into a numbers game in the American League. So not against the Rays. I just think that it's tough situation for 2021 specifically to see them overcoming some pretty tough scenarios here. I think this is the toughest one that we've talked about so far. I could certainly get behind the Braves and I'm in on the Cubs as well. The Rays are tough because they can just make it to the World Series just last year. Had a chance to of course win that World Series as well. And they've lost some major pieces but the Rays always do find a way to read that and they always do find a way to get back. And maybe it won't be this season. Maybe it will be next season and they're set up for the future. They do have some talent there. I don't know. I think this is why you're at minus 134. It's close. You heard the Number Fire metrics there as well with the Blue Jays and the Yankees in that Division. You do wonder the wild cards available to them. A lot of that will depend on what's going on in the central I think. But this one is a tough one for me if you're feeling a little frisky. Head on over to the Fandall Sportsbook right now. That's going to do it for us here on the Fandall area. Jim, we appreciate the time. We'll talk to you next week for opening day. I am so excited to shove Byron Buxton in the face of all of our wonderful viewers. It's been far too long since I've been able to do so. So I think we're actually talking pictures next Wednesdays but I can maybe squeeze some bucks and talk in there somewhere because I tend to find ways to do so. Byron Buxton, $25 player last night in my salary cap draft. People are still buying on Buxton. We'll see if Jim is come next week. Thank you so much for joining us. We'll be back tomorrow with another edition of The Hurry Up as Tom Beckio joins us to take us into the weekend. For Jim Sannis, I'm Greg Sussman. Thanks so much for watching.