 Only five games on the slate for tonight in Daily Fantasy Baseball. And sometimes you can run into situations where on a small slate, you lack upside to change your approach, change your mindset and be okay with sub-optimal plays. Today, that is not the case. We've still got really good pitching options, some fun stacks. So even though it's a five game slate, it's gonna have the scoring, I think, of a bigger one. We're gonna break down what this slaytest offer, where we can find that upside and how to build good lineups over on FanDuel.com. Welcome on into the solo shop. That's right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network and NumberFire.com. My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire here to break down Thursday's five game main slate with lock set for 6.40 p.m. Eastern for today. The lock moved up to 6.40, making a four game slate. I'm assuming fewer games tonight because of the NFL draft. But again, as I said, not a bad slate, regardless. No weather notes for today. We are good to go there. Pretty cool temperatures across the board. So the downsides of that lesser than usual, there is one game with temperatures in the 70s that is likely indoors in Arlington. So outside of that, just kind of play things straight up and go where your heart desires. We'll dig into this slate here in just one second, but first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to the NumberFire Daily Fantasy Podcast Feed, wherever you get your podcasts for PGA, MLB, and UFC podcasts for select events all in the same podcast feed. Just search for the NumberFire Daily Fantasy Podcast Feed on your podcast catcher of choice. Hit subscribe and if you like what you hear, leave us a five-star rating. And for the solo shot, you can also find us over on the FanDuel YouTube page. I would appreciate those of you watching over there. Hit a thumbs up if you are watching over on YouTube as always. 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In Arizona, 1-800-NEXT-STEP or TEXT-NEXT-STEP to 533-42 in New York, 1-877-AHOPENWIRETEXTOPENWIRE in Connecticut, 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat. In Indiana, 1-800-9 with it. In Wyoming and Kansas, 1-800-522-4700 or in Kansas, ksgamblinghealth.com. Louisiana is 1-877-770-STOP in Maryland, mdgamblinghealth.org and in West Virginia, go to 1-800-gambler.net. Pitching preview for this Thursday main slate, Garrett Cole headlines this slate. He comes in with a salary of $11,600. Shane McClanahan is at 11-3 with Cal Gibson to 10-2. Dylan Cease facing McClanahan is at 99. We have Tyler Malley, Andrew Heaney and Joey Lucchese as the others at $8,000 or higher. On tonight's slate, we have Shane McClanahan and Dylan Cease facing each other and they just faced each other back on Saturday, which means both the opposing offenses have just seen these guys. And as you know, I view that as being a pretty big negative of that familiarity with those pitchers despite the fact that McClanahan dusted the White Sox in that game. But what that does is it makes it a lot easier to put Garrett Cole at the top of our list and log out. Cole is facing the Rangers. They're not the same threat as Cease faced with the Rays. 96 WRC plus against Rides on the current active roster since the start of last year, 24% strikeout rate, 8% walk rate. So this might be the best matchup Cole has had so far this year. His first four starts have come against the Phillies, Twins, Guardians and Blue Jays. All four teams having a WRC plus of one-on-one or higher against Rides since the start of last year. The Rangers have the highest strikeout rate of that group as well. And despite facing some lower strikeout teams like the Guardians, Cole has still gotten whiffs. He has a 29% strikeout rate through four starts with a 12% swinging strike rate. He's doing a good job of limiting impactful contact as well. The barrel rate there is super low. I have Cole projected for 7.9 strikeouts tonight. That is the top mark on the slate by about 0.6 I believe strikeouts above the pack. So I think we should feel good about ranking Cole highest and making him the number one guy. That may seem obvious, but honestly, I'm okay with obvious if it is correct. And I think that Cole is the correct call for tonight. So he will be my top pitcher for tonight. Now with McClanahan and Cease, as mentioned, they're facing each other again, which means both offenses just saw them. It's not going to be enough to push them outside of our top two, but it does hurt them. McClanahan, as mentioned, torched the White Sox whereas Cease struggled against the Rays, but Cease now has a lower salary, much lower salary, likely a lower roster rate because he's underdog here and he is at home. I think that gives us leeway to rank Cease a hair ahead of McClanahan for tournaments. Now in that first matchup, Cease went four innings, three in runs, five strikeouts. That is not ideal and his swinging strike rate was low, potentially as a result of lower velocity. That velocity is the biggest red flag for me with Cease because in that one start, he's only had one start this year so far where he's had velocity on par with what he had last year. And that was his first start this year, 10 strikeouts against the Astros. Really good showing there. In the other three starts he has made, he has had no more than eight strikeouts and that's always a red flag where if the velocity is down, swinging strike rates down, it means it's not, he's like tinkering with like his velocity to get some widths and stuff like that. It could mean there's an injury there, but his velocity against the raise last time that was better than what it had then previously. So I think that that's encouraging. It was also outdoor or indoors and as was the Houston game, which could mean that the lower velocity was due to temperature. Not thinking that's entirely the case, but like it is at least a possibility. And the White Sox don't seem to be concerned about an injury here because they're letting Cease go deep in games. He's gone 113 and 102 pitches across his past two starts. So it's possible he's a typical Dylan Cease, but just in some kind of weird sort of slump and he can snap out of that in a hurry. It is 50 degrees for tonight in Chicago, which is bad for velocity for Cease. So I'd expect it to be in the 95 range once again, but it's also bad for hitting, which helps him too. ISC is projected for 7.1 strikeouts tonight. That ranks second on the slate behind just Garrett Cole. I'm gonna put Cease second right behind Cole, but it's strictly for tournaments. I think that that is the requirement here because of the velocity, because of the AP matchup. I think that we have to put Cease as a tournament only option, whereas Cole is viable for cash games. And I think that he's where I would turn there. So to me, it's Cole one, Cease two for tournaments, McLean to him three for tournaments for tonight. I think our value play here on this slate is the pretty easy call. That's Tyler Malley at home against the Royals. And I think he checks a lot of boxes. The cool temperatures in Minneapolis for today, that'll hurt hitting. And Malley looked okay so far this year. He has a new slider and in four starts with that new slider. He has a 3.74 skill interactive ERA. His strikeout rate is 25%. And he's had good results too, not just good peripherals. His ERA is 3.32. That hasn't always led to big individual gains for Cease. He had a good matchup last week at home against the Nats and in that game, six and one third innings, but just four strikeouts. He did have seven in one game, but he hasn't been pushing for double digits. Like you see with Cole, Cease and McLeanahan. So I like their upside first nine. That's why I'm on them primarily. I have Malley projected for 5.9 strikeouts. We do have, that is lower than Cole, Cease and McLeanahan. And also lower than Julie LeCasey. We'll talk about in things to watch. Those are the only guys above him though. He's at home facing a pretty weak offense that has been brutal so far this year. I think those things align low enough to make Malley a fine option as a value for today. Do you prefer the studs? So we'll be there more often, but I think Malley is at least worth a look if you think that the Rays and White Sox get to the opposing guys and given the way if you match up or if Cole struggled, which does sometimes happen. I think there's a path to Malley being good. Just would need those things to happen in order to get there. Let's move now to the stacks for today. I think the pitching is a hair better than stacks, but stacks not too bad either. And that begins in Baltimore. They're facing Joey Wentz tonight and Wentz is letting up some dangerous batted balls. And I think that makes the Orioles a good stack here. We're up to four starts on Wentz in 2023. His fly ball rate is 54% with a 39% hard hit rate. Those are pretty tough numbers and it's reflected inside his results. His ERA 7.56, if skill interactive ERA is 5.38. And we saw this last year with Wentz too, just not quite to the exact same extent. He let up a 35% hard hit rate with a 43% fly ball rate across last year. And the reason that's a big concern is because Wentz is not a major strikeout guy. So he doesn't have the leeway to struggle with hard contact and get good results. But it's still happening. The Orioles not as good against lefties as they are against righties. So I don't think it's a great matchup in that regard. It's also in Detroit for tonight, which means it's a little bit cooler than it would be if this game were in Baltimore with the temperatures at just 56 degrees. But I still think there's enough there to make the Orioles a good high upside option for tonight. Now the bummer here is I don't think they'll have Austin Hayes, he got banged up and it sounds like it'll be a multi-day thing. So I am expecting Austin Hayes to sit. Can he hit lefties well? So that's kind of a bummer. But there are a lot of non-elite guys on this team who do hit lefties well, even if we take Hayes out of the equation. Ryan Malcastle, not a secondary guy by any means, but crushes lefties. Ryan McKenna, if he plays, Jorge Mateo, Ramon Urias to an extent. All those guys pretty good against lefties. And that's in addition to Anthony Santander who has a little salary, but is very, very good. So it does hurt to not have Austin Hayes here, but I still think they're worth it. If Hayes does play, sweet, I'll use him. But I am going into this late, assuming Hayes will not play and still okay with the Orioles, despite that. Number two stack will be the Mets. They're facing Trevor Williams who's had good results so far this year. His ERA is 3.38. The underlying data, not as pretty. I think it allows us to stack the Mets for tonight. Not many strikeouts for Williams so far. He has a 15% strikeout rate so far. He has a 7.3% swinging strike rate. And that says to me that strikeout rate at 15% is likely going to stay pretty low. He's doing that while letting up a 13% barrel rate. Now, barrel rate doesn't stabilize super quickly for pitchers so that could be unlucky. And his hard hit rate is 32%, which is pretty good. But Williams does let up a lot of fly balls. So if he lets up any hard contact, it can get into trouble pretty fast. Obviously with the low ERA, that doesn't happen yet so far this year, which is impressive because he did have a start at Coorsfield. He has let up no more than three runs in any game so far. So that's good. He's been impressive so far. I just remain skeptical that it's sustainable based on what the underlying data says. The Mets will be a good test of this. They have a 122 WRC plus against righties. Good power numbers. And I think we should look to stack them here and feel good about the Mets in this spot. I think now's a good time to check in on Brett Beatty because he's had some sample in the majors. He struck out a bit more than you'd like. That's kind of the big thing for me. He's making decent contact, but not really putting it in the air. He can still basis so he doesn't necessarily need to hit for power to be viable for DFS, but I'm still tepid here is what I would say. I'm fine with him for sure because, you know, we do need to save some salary, get to coal. Beatty's salary is $2400. If you wanna get there, use a really fun guy, make it a bit easier. I'm okay with that. But I wanna see a bit more before I get jazz personally, especially while he's hitting lower in the order. So a bit more meh on Beatty for right now. I do think that Dan Vogelbach could be a good value player, 28, not the best start for him so far this year, but that could be a way to go for some value. So I think that works out strongly. Marte playing pretty well so far this year. Obviously the stolen bases are always a threat. So I would go with Marte Vogelbach ahead of Beatty as far as value plays for tonight. Final stack is gonna be the twins facing Zach Greenke, who is getting more strikeouts this year. I actually took the over on his strikeout prompt for today, which is definitely a good thing, but he's also letting up more hard contact. And I think that allows us to stack the twins against him. Greenke has added a sinker into the mix and he's weirdly had the reverse outcome you'd expect when you add a sinker. Usually the strikeout rate goes down and the bad at ball data gets better. But for Greenke, his strikeout rate is up about 4% of points, whereas his hard hit rate is up more than two ticks. The ground ball rate is down two ticks and it's led to a 5.43 expected ERA. His actual ERA is 4.61, so the results have not been perfect either. In Greenke's defense, he has had some tough matches, but the twins I think are on their way back to being that once again, because they're getting guys back off the YAL and it seems to be helping quite a bit. This one on the road for Greenke, Greenke has tended to struggle a lot more there in his career than he has at home. And I think there's enough here to make the twins a good stack against him. And of course, we're talking twins and we're coming off a game two nights ago where Byron Buxton hit a big home run. We got to talk Buxton. I think he might be starting to come out of his slump. Obviously, as you know, massive bias from me towards Byron Buxton. So take this with a big grain of salt, but his swinging strike rate has been down across the past 10 days. Strike out rate 19% in that time. He's drawn some walks. His hard hit rate is 46% across 22 balls in play. And if it were someone else, maybe we'd be skeptical, but it's Byron Buxton who has a pretty long sample now being a high upside guy for DFS. His salary is still $2,900. So I think now is a great time to buy into it. Again, the caveat being I love Byron Buxton. So keep that in mind, but do love him for sure. Joey Gallo, great play. Despite hitting lower in the order, just take the upside and deal with it. I think he's, I don't know if he'll keep up what he's doing, but he's been fun so far. So let's keep on riding it for now. I think the twins are a good stack. I think Buxton is a key part of that as we buy low on him for the short time that his salary is below $3,000. Let's go now to things to watch. I mentioned before that Joey Lucchese's strikeout projection is pretty high. A lot of that is pitch counts. He went 98 in his first start this year, but he also looked pretty good in that start. He had seven innings, nine strikeouts, seven shutout innings, I should say. The swinging strike rate was 10.2%. So I would expect the strikeouts to come down a bit, but I do think he's worth a look against the Nats for $8,300. So if you don't want Mali, totally fine. I think that Lucchese is a good alternative and one I'd also be very okay with in that range. I'd be fine putting the Yankees in the top three stacks if I knew Aaron Judge would play. He appeared to bang both of his hands somehow on a weird slide yesterday. He saved the game. He did get a hit, drew a walk later on, but I wouldn't be shocked if he gets a day off for today just because of that. They're facing Andrew Heaney, who will let up a lot of hard contact and fly balls. So I'm into the Yankees even for one-offs if Judge can't go, but missing him would hurt them as a full stack, especially with how thin their lineup is right now. It would hurt them not to have Aaron Judge quite a bit. So one-offs with like Labor Taurus, stuff like that, fine. It'd be tougher to stack them if Aaron Judge can't go. The only other situation we have not yet discussed today is the Tigers against Kyle Gibson. I don't think Gibson gets enough strikeouts to be worth his salary in DFS, but I am not stacking Detroit against him. So I think that's the one true neutral situation on the slate where not considering the guy as a pitcher and not stacking the opposing team, they are the one like full, full stay away on this slate with the way things break down. Let's finish up here with some Dinger calls for today. Mentioned before that Ryan Mountcastle crushes lefties, his bat of ball data, good so far this year. It's in Detroit, which is never super, super fun, but I think that's okay. So Ryan Mountcastle will be the boring home run call for today against Joey Wetz. The fun one, Jorge Polanco. Very small data with him coming off the IL, but I do tend to prefer Polanco against lefties versus righties, but he's had good data so far. Target field not great for lefties, but facing Granky on the road, I think this makes a lot of sense. So home run calls for today, Ryan Mountcastle and Jorge Polanco. That is all that we have here for today on the Solo Shop, but we are back with you once again tomorrow to break down a Friday slate for today. Do not forget that lock is at 6.40 PM. So get those lineups in and finalized before the early lock time. Do not forget to subscribe to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy Podcast Feed wherever you get your podcasts. Also check us out over on the Fandal YouTube page there. Subscribe there. We also have covering the spread going up on the YouTube page each and every weekday. Subscribe to the Fandal YouTube page. Hit the thumbs up button there or check us out on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy Podcast Feed and leave us a five star rating if you like what you hear. If you've got any questions for me, I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the Fandal Podcast Network at Fandal Podcasts. Want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your MLB DFS lineups. We're excited to join you watching that during the NFL Draft as well. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down a Friday slate. This has been the Solo Shop right here on the Fandal Podcast Network.