 Over here just watching everything as it happens as I usually do And I have a presentation to share with you all if you're on my YouTube That's pinned up on my profile on Twitter if you're listening there on spaces But we'll go through all this we'll talk a little bit about what's going on first I'm just gonna do some introductory stuff So I Markets in mayhem. I'm sure you probably know me by now been doing these every Tuesday at 9 a.m. For book map for a little while now and You know, it's been fun so I've started trading in 2005 and Really focused on stocks and then options got into futures navigated my way through the great financial crisis That's where I got much more passionate about macro because of course, you know, what better time To learn about how important macro is then been during everything that was happening then So we're gonna talk a little bit more about all that I'm just gonna take one moment to just do a few things behind the scenes here So just give me one moment as I do that and as I'm working on this if you have any questions about anything Feel free to reach out I'm always happy to discuss what I'm doing make sure that everyone's getting a benefit from you know Participating and seeing what I'm doing. I want this to be both about kind of me sharing what I'm looking at in the markets But I'd also like it to be about, you know, teaching because I've been at this game for a little while So if I talk about things that you don't understand or want to learn more about or whatever Feel free to post a question. If it's on Twitter, you can post it and reply to the spaces It's on YouTube. You can post it in the chat and if it's on discord You can tag me in and post it there as well. So let's get this show on the road This is my contact info. You'll see it on screen if you're on the YouTube right now and That's trader a comm that's where we talk about short-term trading to intermediate term trading It's all about education and actionable ideas We also have custom tools that are pretty darn cool looking at how options impact the market That's been a for a where I've actually been doing a lot of my own coding And we'll look at one of those tools during the stream macro visor is a project that I'm working on with my partner I should to focus on the big picture and how that makes actionable longer term trading and investing themes So we make macro actionable. You can find me on my own YouTube That's at markets for me or mayhem for markets mayhem for markets got my own name wrong there That's that's what kind of day. It's been right, but you can find me there at YouTube It's youtube.com slash at mayhem for markets and then finally if you want to Get book map at up to 40% off, which is a deep discount to be sure You can visit trader a comm slash book map and Scroll down to the specials. So let's do the favorite part of everyone Everyone loves this part of the presentation the most, right? This is where I read off all this text really quickly about the disclaimer all book map limited materials information Presentations or for educational purposes only it should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations Trading futures equities and digital currencies involve substantial risk of loss And it's not suitable for all investors past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. All right So first slide we have here today is the pre-market the what's going on in futures It's a bit of a bloodbath out there in the world of commodities Gotta say if you're not watching this on screen you can by just clicking on the YouTube link that's pinned to my Twitter profile But basically we have a heat map that shows oil Gas heating oil natural gas and ethanol all taking it on the chin this morning Joined by gold silver platinum copper palladium live cattle feeder cattle soy oil corn wheat oats Needless to say it's not a great place There are a couple places to hide in commodities today lean hogs canola and orange juice As well as soy meal have a bid the dollars up a bit It's up about four tenths of a percent here the 30-year bonds up about six tenths of a percent and equity futures are down Just a touch outside of the Nasdaq which was flat as the time of taking this photo But it shows us just a little bit of change in heart in these markets the the bid for commodities has dropped And I think that's interesting to see how this plays out. Obviously one day does not make a trend So we will be watching this to see how it all goes But I think it's still going to be important to kind of taking a consideration that this is pretty Pretty big what's happening behind the scenes here oil broke its up trend pretty meaningfully over the last several trading days And it had been pretty healthy and you know, it's not as if the tensions have gone away It's more that the market is doing what it likes to do So you'll remember if you were trading during the Ukraine Russia Situation when that was escalating in its first couple of weeks when troops were moving in from Russia oil was getting a huge bid and it was absolutely just off the charts and then You know as we Went through that whole situation the market started to look past it more and more and more and then eventually We sort of stopped paying attention to it at all unless it was a major headline over in in Ukraine It would wouldn't even impact the price of commodities It wouldn't even impact the markets that much and we're kind of getting to that point in the current conflict as well So the events are no doubt tragic There's a lot of innocent people that have been hurt and it's very unfortunate But the markets at this point are looking past that and so we're now on the other side of it where we see Commodities particularly in energy and you know gold which is the uncertainty hedge Getting hit pretty hard. I think that's important that change of character also just wanted to note that RBA hiked last night They're a new central bank governor hiked last night and yet the Aussie Dollar is getting smashed. It's down 1.12 percent. So that's interesting So some interesting reactions in the world of currencies lately put it that way I'm gonna move these guys off the screen here. We'll put them back later. This is more about book map So this chart on screen here is commodities versus S&P cash And if you're not seeing the video what it's showing us is that there is still a relative strength trend here Although this was taken before market So it's going to be interesting to see how this plays out, right? We may not See this relative strength chart hold up if this type of trading continues So right now is going to be pretty important really the today how things resolved in the world of oil in particular Is going to be very important because that's been the leadership in this commodity boom And it is rolling over and as I said, we'll look at the technicals in a little bit But this relative strength chart was one reason to really be bullish of commodities if it breaks down It's going to look like the opposite and if that trend changes It'll be a reason to actually start looking for bearish opportunities in some of these weaker commodities Now let's look at the New York, McClellan, New York Stock Exchange, McClellan oscillator on screen This was really overbought going into yesterday. I had a reading of 95 That was part of a breadth push higher and that's fine There's nothing wrong with markets getting really excited and seeing lots of strong breadth last week But what we did see underneath the surface that was somewhat disconcerting was there was a lot about performance by the lowest quality factors The most shorted stocks were getting a huge bid and you know Russell kind of sort of falls in that bucket as well Although we'd love to see more outperformance by small caps because that's one thing in this this market this year We really haven't seen in fact a Russell's down year to date and Typically and we'll talk about this as well small caps are leadership in a real bull market Nevertheless, we did see yesterday's sort of sideways to higher price action Help to reduce this reading so we're no longer quite as overbought. We're more at a point now We're just kind of seeing a little bit of a retracement So on that factor looking a little better similar with CBO we equity put call ratio came off of that euphoria reading So again looking a little better there as well Now this is an interesting chart this is a chart of the NASDAQ in Red and the tenure note price not yield in black And what do you see here is this really big ramp in the apologize for my terrible drawing in this Correlation right over a 50 rolling trading day period. It's now point eight two So I know for a while interest rates didn't seem to matter for stocks. They do seem to matter again in both directions So seeing rates Drop recently helped to give stocks a pop and if rates resume their ascent that could have the opposite effect but at the very least it's really important to pay attention to this relationship because over the summer as you can see There was basically no correlation. It went inverse actually, right? And now we're back to a positive correlation with the price of US debt this chart showing the tenure and the performance of the NASDAQ and we can see that in other areas of the market as well Now this is a chart of the yield curve. This is Two's and 10's we're still pretty inverted here about negative 26 bits I think it's interesting because in my mind just speaking of rates in the long end I'm really looking for this to move higher and this is something that Aishah and I have talked about quite a bit that we believe there's still room for a bear steepener Meaning that in our work when we're looking at the macro and we're looking at what's going on in in the world of debt You know, yes, the quarterly refunding announcement came out with less total issuance on the long end and maybe less total than the market was expecting But maybe we should guard our expectations and optimism on that because the Treasury also has a habit of coming out and up sizing their issuance sometime during that same quarter and You know the other side of it is the biggest bidder at auctions with the Fed We also had foreign counterparties, you know in the past like China Japan and Saudi They've all stepped back meaningfully now. It's really US households and to some extent, you know retirement funds that are buyers At these auctions at the margin. We've got big auctions this week as well So we'll be able to gauge the appetite for these treasuries We've got I think I want to say about 120 billion in notes and bonds Including one auction this afternoon to pay attention to to get a better sense as to where the market is on this But my expectation and Aisha's work agrees with this and she's looking at it somewhat differently But we come to the same conclusion is it really the long end should appreciate in terms of rates Faster than the short end short ends probably done. It might even move down a little bit from here But it's probably about done But the long end, you know, if you're lending someone money for that long like 10 20 30 years There should be a premium for that risk you're taking that exceeds that of what it is right now Whereas you're getting paid better for 30 days of exposure to US government bills than 30 years of exposure to US government bonds and It's just not a scenario that makes a lot of sense. Typically. There's a premium That's how the entire banking system is sort of constructed and then borrowing from the short end lending at the long end and so as long as this inversion exists it has a lot of Consequences that aren't ideal and I think that it would actually be much healthier for our financial system to see a normal steepened yield curve from the short end rising into the long end rates Appreciating with duration because that's how the whole system is set up, right? And at the end of the day it makes sense from a risk perspective For the long end to trade at a premium in terms of rates to the short end because you're taking more risk on Currency will the dollar be worth the same the the government's fiscal situation? What's it gonna look like 10 20 30 years from now? So, you know seeing the tenure maybe trade higher than five maybe six wouldn't be terribly surprising as we sort of work our way out of this inversion Now as we see rates rise this actually offers interesting opportunities This is one of the things that I think is kind of You know it can be missed underneath the surface because often is the case We're just looking at the S&P or the Nasdaq or the Russell or the Dow But it's really fun to drill down into sectors and factors because that's where you can find Opportunities really no matter what the market's doing. There's going to be opportunities to trade and Particularly on a swing timeframe. So I love to use relative strength and relative weakness as a qualifier for these longer-term trades And when I'm looking at that in the world of small caps I'm plotting on-screen IWN versus IWO for those not familiar. That's the small cap value versus small cap growth Okay small cap value is outperforming small cap growth in a pretty decisive way and for me This tells me there's a trade Because it's been going on really since August this outperformance and it's continued to amplify It's continued to grow in momentum. And so we have enough of a time period to say this is not just an anomaly it's not just to pick up there's something to this and We're also seeing it in a broader Set of Interfactor ratios So if we look at large cap value versus large cap growth We're now starting to see Some outperformance there as well over the last month Shorter time period, but it's showing you that maybe this trade is starting to broaden out now When you think of a market that's been really led higher by growth factors and really a handful of stocks in that They're the largest there if we're going to see an extension from here I would like to see different leadership that isn't quite as Expensive so looking at value as either a long or in my opinion a pair trade Actually offer some opportunity because the other idea here is as rates rise and as the Fed works to sort of end this credit cycle Value is also likely more likely to outperform growth in that environment So these are companies that tend to have better balance sheets free cash flow They in even the small caps and horse I see you out there So I know that you know you don't approve of me talking positively of any component of the Russell and I'm just messing with you But you know even the small caps in the Russell Look like they're ready to outperform growth over the longer run And I think that trade could also be extrapolated out to the larger caps if we look at the S&P 500 There's also an opportunity to start that pair trade of long value and short growth in those larger caps I believe as well Now let's take a quick look at sentiment on screen. We have double a double I bulls versus bears and the last survey data actually came in the third lowest for 2023 So, you know us retail folks We've been washed out here in terms of our sentiment now often is the case that after a washout event like this You do get a strong bounce the question is because this data is current I want to say as of Wednesday of last week whether we already got that strong bounce or not It's going to be interesting to see how we go from here markets are in kind of an interesting position here technically Which will go over shortly But this is at least in a vacuum this reading when it was taken was exhaustively low. This was You know basically just people Capitulating so to see that kind of exhaustive low That's at least healthy a lot of you know sad to say it But a lot of people got flushed out of the market and sometimes that's what it takes to get a rally Like we did off of those lows is to see what are referred to as weaker hands or people that don't have the same conviction or Maybe got in at higher prices Get flushed out of those positions and then you know the sad reality is that those same Likely have to come back and buy in at a higher price when the market resumes its March Speaking of buying we have managed money positioning here. This is the NA I am survey It comes out every week on Thursday usually in the afternoon with data current as of Wednesday So last week these folks were still pretty pessimistic now remember two weeks ago they were buying the dip pretty aggressively and Then they just absolutely just got rid of all of that they went to the lowest levels of net exposure in 2023 levels of net exposure we hadn't seen I want to say since November of 2022 and Now they're just starting to creep up again This is another survey that ended on Wednesday last week So we don't have Thursday Friday sentiment data or positioning data in either of these surveys But it at least suggests there was a pretty meaningful washout going into those more powerful days Now one thing that's interesting about the environment or in there's a lot of disagreement about whether this is really a bull market or not I'm very skeptical of calling it a bull market in this chart drives that point home Because for every single bear low from 1982 on Small caps and equal weight let We're not seeing that this time Market cap weighted Indices are leading like the S&P 500 in the NASDAQs market cap version versus equal weight version And of course as we all know the equal weighted stocks this year are basically flat The small caps are pretty sure they're flat to down after Russell's powerful rally last week And of course the market cap weighted indices are outperforming So this is still something to kind of keep in the back of your head if this is going to become a healthier more Constructive regime then we need to see a broadening out We need to and we saw some of that on Friday, which was great But it didn't continue into Monday 75 percent of issues were actually down So that breadth thrust didn't have the legs to keep pushing So this this is something to just kind of keep in the back of our heads here that small caps and equal weight If there is going to be a continuation should be if this market is anything like, you know Really every market over the last 40 years Should be leading and they're not so they really we want to see them take that that leadership role and And another chart that drives that kind of same point home The lack of breadth is this new highs versus new lows on screen We have the NASDAQ and what we're seeing is really from 2022 on it's just been a story of new lows There's been very few new weeks with new highs dominating and that's again a sign of weakness of breadth Yes, there's great leadership in these concentrated very big stocks But as we drill down underneath the surface, there's still a rolling bloodbath happening in the NASDAQ And over the last several months, that's intensified again this year So if we look at year-to-date performance and we're zooming out beyond the s&p It is a mixed bag You can see the strength of the mega caps and some of these healthcare and biotech names Really holding the market up but pockets of weakness all over the place in this heat map So again illustrating that picture of less breadth We want to see this change if we want to be constructive on the market That breadth has to really improve in the small caps and in the equal weight So let's look at the options data as we get started here 4400 s&p is a very important level to be sure That's the largest area of exposure on the options chain right now. It's likely to provide some resistance We call that a call wall. This is from our algorithm at trader aid where we're actually Going through the cboe options chain analyzing about 10,000 different contracts over 200,000 different data points And calculating this and it's actually updated every minute as markets are trading These figures don't change as much, but we also have the zero DTE data So 4400 spx is a really important level I think if buyers are able to take price above there on a closing basis We've got some room for continuation on the other hand if we keep bumping our head there Sellers might get some ideas about you know, this could be a level they could start to sell against Looking at the gross gam exposure below s4300 is a pretty important level as is 4350 Crossing below 4350 if that was to happen and again, this is cash. This is not Yes, yes about 17 and a half points higher But if we were to cross below 4350 just from an options basis that could introduce more volatility Into our trading dynamics, it would also push us closer towards negative gamma Although we are in positive gamma for now and right now that gamma flip level is 43 42 So as of yesterday's close just 24 points above for those out there that aren't sure what this means The simple explanation is in positive gamma territory Market makers are more likely to sell rips and buy dips that compresses of all a bit That's the dynamic we're in right now And if we get into negative vol it inverse it becomes inverted, right? So then you have more selling of dips and buying of rips and that can increase volatility So let's look at the s&p 500 futures contract here We can see that it broke out of this descending channel that I've drawn and it's building some volume above So overall it's looking constructive going into today But I am going to be very interested to see how we trade particularly in the first 20 and 30 minutes Remember going into today. We have some constructive flows from delta and theta decay with skew coming up again We have beginning of month flows Pensions topping off getting out of the blackout period for buyback So there's a number of things that could help to push the market higher You also have ctas that are still probably quite short this market last exposure information We have from golden suggests they have something like 45 billion dollars worth of buying to do over the next month Similar picture in bonds as well So it'll be interesting to see if all these marginal buyers are able to push the market higher But I think everyone is really going to be watching rates Rates have been the big driver of price discovery to a lesser extent We had geopolitical risk, but that seems to have faded and attention seems to have come back to rates So that's also where I'll have my attention today after the open Now let's look at the nasdaq. It's a very similar picture as the s&p It's starting to bump above that upper trend line It's starting to push above this multi month point of control It's looking more constructive here. It's not it's not a look that I would want to just fade reflexively I want to see what happens today with that opening range as well as how we're trading in rates today It looks like rates have a bid that is to say that they'll come down as bonds are actually being bought At least going into pre-market. That's what it's looking like. So so far Looking relatively constructive here on the s&p and nasdaq, but it's going to be all about continuation Now the zn contract. This is the tenure note futures We can see it had that spike higher on friday into a key level of resistance determined by both the volume profile and previous price action that rejection there has me thinking we could Actually see rates start to press higher and price move a little bit lower It looked like that was a bit of an exhaustive move So wouldn't be terribly surprised to see that retrace and again That's one of those mixed signals that has me really paying attention To rates as well as this opening range today to get a better feel as to what the market's telling me Now crude this is a nasty look it broke below this second trend line here that it was attempting to defend earlier It's now below this point of control That's volume profile from the year, you know, basically the start of the year to the present rsi's rolling lower It's well below 50 Can't like it here. I just I've been bullish on energy, but the technicals tell me it's time to be cautious And i'm not going to fight price on this even though there's a good big picture thesis to be long oil The technicals tell me there could be some more downside here So i'm stepping to the side and watching to see what happens next in this trade And seeing whether or not we get a push back into the trend which would be very constructive We had a look below and it didn't last more than today and we pushed back above the trend before close Or whether we see some continuation of the downside particularly below that lower volume node That's just underwear prices. We'll have to watch and wait see how that plays out We have gold on screen though gold is looking pretty terrible Which i'm sure again is making my partner horse very happy to see that Because we both wanted to kind of explore the other side of this gold trade. It got exhaustive to the upside A lot of uh, this was driven by fear and that fear seems to be fading Whether warranted or not the market is telling us that that barometer of uncertainty has been dropping Gold also hasn't been able to get much of a bit as the dollars weekend and rates have come down So that also is kind of telling us that relative weakness is a sign that maybe there's more room to the downside In the precious metal. So we're watching that very closely looking for downside to 1916 this was a trade that i put out on trader aid Yesterday and have been tracking really since last week's midweek update for an opportunity But now we're finally seeing the signs of that breakdown And if we get below 1916 1845 would be on the table and that's where I'd be looking to cover runners in this short position We can see rsi's rolling over as well. So it tells it's kind of just giving us a sense that momentum is stalling out So I would like to see some continuation on this to to tell me i'm right But I think that you know if we break below that point of control that we're testing today That's going to bring us down another basically 60 50 bucks So that's everything on my slides. Let's go into book map here And we'll take a look at what's happening pre-market I'm just going to grab myself a drink. I'll be right back All right, folks So s and p's got a little bit of a bid into yesterday's most active call level pre-market And these levels are what that algorithm that I was talking about It maps it out so that we can see it in book map We can see it in charts that are dynamically generated And we can also have text based output from our friendly discord bot gur So it's kind of cool. We get to track the relationship between how options are impacting the price of the s and p And do so in in pretty close time But pre-market here overall Looking relatively constructive, but again, we're going to wait for that opening bell Which is less than a minute away And see how this thing trades for the first 20 or so to get a better idea of whether we might be setting up for a high probability trend day NASDAQ's Not looking too bad either pretty sprightly got a nice push here from 9 15 a.m on Some of these small traders got pushed out You can see the stops on screen if you're watching the stream about 386 contracts now that doesn't sound like a lot if you're used to looking at the s and p But NASDAQ order book depth is well not much at all right now 8.4 thousand contracts Right, so when you see that much like five percent of the book pushed out that's pretty big Looking at speaking of contrast in order book size, we're going to look at the tenure note futures This order book has uh five hundred eighty six thousand depth That's huge right so you see people just casually Trading thousands of contracts and it's not as big of a mover of price because it's such a small fraction of the order book But pre-market just sort of trading sideways here. Oh see the bell has opened now Bell has rung Gold trading downwards the sideways here and crude Wow broke below 79 now trading just Above 78 here 78 86 That should be helpful to rates that should be helpful to push rates down if crude continues to weaken Let's go back to the spooze here now that the market's open And I'm going to zoom out so we can see some of these options levels just Visualized in book map as well. This is something that if you're on our trader aid plus discord You can actually see these levels Right there on screen Just a bit of pressure in the open here See if there's any large levels of resting liquidity come in We've got a pretty decent size offer 317 308 now at 4400 above And we just had a bid 263 come in at about 4378 and it looks like we may be heading there first And I think we have 11 fed speakers this week Including Powell twice So, you know the fed after they get out of their blackout period just wants to come out and tell us Everything that's on their mind. I don't think these meetings will be big market movers though because unlike some of the You know prior fed speaker engagements that happen closer to their decision This is pretty far December's decision is over a month away So whatever views they espouse now could be completely different in the course of the next six weeks So I don't think that anything and maybe pal that would be different He's pretty important the fed kind of lines up behind him So those Wednesday and Thursday speeches could be more of market moving events But the rest of the speakers I don't think are going to matter that much to this market I think it's going to be more important the economic data We get with unemployment claims which so far continue to come in really low Not worried about those unless they start pushing 300 000 And then the University of Michigan consumer sentiment be very interested to see what the final number for inflation expectations one year ahead is Nintendo reported earnings by the way. They actually did pretty well. This was something that We had talked about on macro visor as a potential turnaround still waiting for the new iteration of a console with them But the company does look like it's an attractive Allocation in the world of gaming we did take out that resting bid in the s&p. You can see that on screen if you're watching the stream And it does look like Sellers are starting to take control so far at this open Three minutes into it Let's look at the NASDAQ here our high beta machine yikes Really quite the retracement all the way back to where we were at 9 15 We do see some resting bids building below a bit in the NASDAQ But it's on both sides of this this tends to trade a little differently than the s&p because It's not as much driven by options. Whereas the s&p almost entirely Is driven by options In fact, the majority of the footprint that you see in the volume profile are market makers Hedging their positions rather than futures participants natively trading the es It's a fun little fact there because of how much options influence the market now Let's take a look at rates. So we do see treasuries getting a bit of a bid here I'm going to go out in a limb and say maybe oil is softer. But first, let's look at gold Gold's falling too. Look at that that trade is starting to play out a little bit more You do have a decent size resting bid In gold here. Remember, this is another one of those contracts. So the order book is just tiny So gold's order book has 7.3 thousand depth Not not very big overall there. So when you see a Resting bid that stands out on the heat map this much. It's actually meaningful All right, then Let's go back To the s&p. But first we'll take a trip over to oilville now Trading down to 7850. So that is quite a bit lower We are seeing sellers drag down the point of control and vwap a bit here Bearish looking oil to be sure that breakdown from the trend continuing here in the cash session And when you get a trend break like that, you typically have Participants that are caught on the wrong side that are no longer in the money on their positions and Start stopping out here. So I think we're seeing a little bit of that distribution as well in oil, which is again It's good for rates. We're seeing them come down on this But let's see what happens with equities here, which are still pretty weak into this open As I'm talking if you all have any questions Feel free to drop a note and their replies on twitter in the youtube channel for book map or on their discord. Just tag me in I'm just gonna take a look around real quick Stealing some more selling pressure here in s&p Take a look at the nasdaq here Yeah, this is now taken out the pre The pre market levels. This is actually looking quite bearish on the nasdaq If you're a five minute opening range trader, this is a short Based on that violation of that five minute opening range and that continued push lower here And we're building volume down here seemingly building some acceptance here at lower prices So if anything the nasdaq looks like a short into the price action we have right now And rates are continuing to show some relief. This is this is a decent bid from the lows yesterday in the tenure note future So just taking note of that and then you know, the market seemingly not very concerned about that relief Continuing to see pressure. That's interesting to be sure gold also not really benefiting from the drop in rates By the way, gold is a competing long duration asset So when rates fall Gold should see a bid but because of that exhaustive rally it's had it's more looking like it wants to retrace I think there's people that are kind of stepping on each other's feet trying to get out of this trade And remember with gold historically speaking when it gets a huge bid and it happens in a very short period of time And then whatever was causing that bid to happen is no longer a front row concern for the market It typically reverses a good chunk if not all of those gains That's just how gold trades. I've traded it since 2006 It is violent. It is unforgiving. It is very driven by psychology and momentum And when everything seems like it's sort of the perfect reason to get long gold as I'm sure a lot of people were doing Maybe 20 30 dollars higher here. The opposite often happens So it's just your reason to be a little cautious on this one I'm not saying you can't trade gold and make a lot of money You certainly can But being a contrarian and letting price be your guide in gold is so so important It's important in every trade but in gold all the sort of like oh the dollar is going to die And you know like the world's going to hell in a hand basket and gold's going to $10,000 an ounce That sort of nonsense is best tuned out completely 100% just pay attention to what's on screen Look for the drivers from rates and the dollar and the other intermarket dynamics See if they're playing out But most importantly look at the trends and I'll tell you one thing I like for gold swing trades is the 50 week Simple moving average as a guide for momentum You can throw bolinger bands if you want to see extensions and bolinger bands squeeze Breakouts That's another way to kind of enhance your visibility of the momentum and the health of it On that trade over a longer time period, but that 50 week moving average for gold is quite an important area to watch And since we're talking about it It would be silly for me not to have a very quick look. So let's just take a look at that Yeah, so that would be 1932 81 Would be that 50 week simple moving average number right now in gold So we're still a little ways above it, but um, I found that to be when we cross above We tend to have continuation similarly when we cross below we tend to have continuation It's not a perfect science and looking at the weekly close cross above or below is really the key for this But it's it's a very interesting line in the sand and back testing it tends to be Tends to show that it's it's pretty useful particularly over the last decade And gold just continuing lower to that resting bid down below So again, even though it's not a huge amount of contracts You can see that it matters and it's pulling price because in a thin market The auction wants to travel to where there's liquidity to release and there's certainly some liquidity down there to release Speaking of we're now looking at crude on screen And 73 I'm sorry 78 30 to 78 35 There is a decent amount of resting liquidity down there as well So if we're going by that same idea that really auctions that are in a relatively illiquid market want to move down to release liquidity and crude's now quite a liquid order book of 6.6 thousand contracts going down there and and Filling those bids is not terribly unlikely which would put us down about 30 cents Seeing a bit of a bid come back to s and p futures here But also seeing resting liquidity building below a little bit more in terms of size NQ though look at that bid there. That's huge That is very impressive off those lows pushing above the point of control pushing into vwap here and testing these levels We do see some iceberg distribution looks like a institutional seller took off just shy of 200 contracts into that push And again, because this is not a very liquid contract That's worth paying attention to it's about 9 000 on the order book right now for the nasdaq And this is also why I prefer the 20 minute opening range because a lot can happen in five minutes So I look for the longer term opening range breaks as I feel that They both Statistically speaking have a better chance of a trend day But also it keeps me out of this choppy chop that happens right after the open with so many different flows almost fighting with each other And we're seeing a pretty decent reversal here pushing above vwap on the nasdaq volume is getting a little thin up here though You can see that with the size of the bubbles on the book map heat map When they get really small those are very small orders that are transacting the larger ones are always more interesting to me because that shows Just a little more conviction Nevertheless, we do see this sort of chop building above vwap and the point of control So on a very short time frame here you would think buyers are going to have a bit of a tactical advantage to try to push this higher And again for me I'm looking for that 20 minute opening range at beating being defined by the highs and lows and the first 20 minutes of trading And then which way price moves and starts to build volume to show acceptance That's how I like to qualify a trend day Right still looking pretty constructive over here 10 years seeing still some more bid It actually got up to about 108 retracing just a little bit of that now And you've got that uh, you know reasonable size resting offer above at 108 or 10 Some small contracts being pushed out smaller traders being pushed out of this thing probably shorted 452 contracts on that stop That's what these red dots are above. That would be a buy stop Gold continuing to push lower. Look at that. It did take out that resting bid like a magnet Let's see as we go lower. Wow. I don't know that's going to happen today. We'll see but 1958 is the next largest Resting bid in gold and they continue to stack them lower here So gold in terms of just what the algos and larger traders are thinking They want to either exit shorts or get long but at lower levels So it's important to think about that in the context of the momentum in today That in an illiquid auction these tend to act a bit more like a magnet if they line up with trend Crude getting a little bit of a pop here from 78 50 But once again the majority of the liquidity is below it And reasonably sizable given how small this thing is only six and a half thousand contract order book depth And you've got 130 on the bid at 78 30. So that's that's reasonable. That's pretty chunky You know, if you've got like two percent of the book just hanging out there It's it's it's something that's worth paying attention to And it's interesting. Uh, here we are back on the s and p contract and we're looking at This 43 70 level and just below it. So you've got that resting offer at 43 70 and our algos calculated gamma flip just below that and the volatility trigger Just slightly below that which all comports to you know, how the options market could impact this This is going back to what we were talking about earlier Pre-market that would be about 43 50 on spx cash for that vol trigger Right. So if we do move below those levels That is likely to make this market quite a bit more choppy intraday And I want to just express my gratitude for everyone that's tuned in We've got about 12 minutes left. So If you've got any questions if you've got any thoughts you want to share Feel free on the twitter spaces and the replies on youtube in the chat or on the discord Just tag me in It's going to take a look at some of the options flow this morning Now that we've had some time to see some transactions go through Iraq oil minister says oil exports exports from southern fields increased by 350 000 barrels per day So that's certainly not bullish for oil seeing some addition of supply there partially offsetting Some of those other cuts from opec plus See if that had any impact on oil or if that was already sort of being priced in looks like that was already being Sort of priced in by the market who may have already had that info Nevertheless in oil, we're seeing the point of control being dragged down By the sellers and that's not a particularly bullish look. We're just testing that level now from below Gold again, you've got that big resting bid at 1958 Just ten dollars down. We'll see If sellers are that aggressive today rates are kind of working in their favor But on the other side the dollar is Well, it's it's got a modest bid to it up about half a percent And a commodity is just lots and lots of red. I was saying earlier today. It's interesting We'll be looking at some of these charts later and see which ones look like opportunities and in what direction Rates given back a little bit on the tenure just softening a little bit from those gains earlier Not quite getting up to that larger resting offer on here NASDAQ firming up but finding resistance and now testing vwap in that point of control area Remember, this is just a really easy way to look at your chart and see who might have control over a short time frame If you're above both the point of control and vwap in today and these are levels that I just start calculating when glowbacks opens at 6 p.m If you're above those levels that suggests that buyers are in control if you're below both that suggests that sellers are in control So in a very short time frame here in the NASDAQ Some evidence that buyers are taking control back and you can see that continuation here And if you don't know folks, I do have this on stream on youtube You can hit the link on my profile to get to the youtube stream So you have the visuals i'm talking about And if you don't want both running at the same time you can mute the youtube or you can Leave the spaces or mute the spaces or whatever you prefer Just want to make y'all aware that we have that in case you wanted to see the video on it as well Let's go back to the spooze here spooze following the cues No surprise there, but certainly another similar look. We've got price above the point of control and above vwap Institutions this morning have been largely net selling On s&p. You can see that with the iceberg number You know negative 700 766 contracts here nothing big but net selling into strength And I like having that iceberg indicator on the sub chart quite a bit It helps me to get a better sense as to kind of what are what are some of the dynamics that are moving this market Oh, I've got some questions here on the youtube. I'm going to go through these I've got just about seven minutes left. So let me just go through these questions Make sure that I address them all for the folks that are Engaged here and so first someone asks me Do I do the opening daily? I do not I do this every Tuesday at 9 a.m for book map and then on our discord I also periodically stream what's going on in the markets and talk about trading opportunities and so on and so forth We also have a midweek recap that my buddy horse and I record for trader aid where we talk about what's going on at that point in the week with all the Different asset classes and intermarket relationships that we track So don't do this daily, but I I do have a lot of different streaming content and then pre-recorded video content out there next question What is a vault trigger so a volatility trigger is going to be the largest area of gross gamma positioning below price And so the vault trigger when you pass below it tends to increase volatility particularly tends to increase the potential of downside risk So that's something that you see if you're on the trader aid discord. You'll see those Labels in our book map feed. This is a plugin that I created that goes through all the cboe options data And actually illustrates these levels in a number of different ways in charts We have a bot that can output this info in text and then we also have it on the book map streaming case You just want everything on one screen while you're trading the market You're welcome. How do I set up the lower hand lower right hand side box? So it sounds like you're talking about the sub chart indicators on book map with liquidity differential Iceberg stops and cumulative volume delta. So in the baseline version of book map, you get cumulative volume delta It's built in There's a free liquidity tracker plugin and a pro one. I use the pro one And then icebergs and stops are available from the mbo plugins So there's an iceberg and stops plugin that tracks the data from rhythmic So you need to have rhythmic as your data provider to actually get that information And then once you have all those plugins installed, you need to enable them I recommend tuning them because you know, sometimes you get a lot of different information that you may not necessarily want So I tune them for only important signal And then, you know, you can set up your sub chart to look however you want You can set it up to be vertical horizontal bars labels circles and and so forth So it's just a matter of doing some customization A book that probably has some videos on that on their youtube as well So I hope that helps We've got about five minutes left here We're kind of stuck in the opening range here. So there's nothing decisive really happening yet in the in the s and p In the nasdaq we're testing the top of that range. So we actually well, we're seeing a breakout of the 20 minute opening range in the nasdaq Let's see if we can build some volume here We may actually see a long opportunity if we start to build some acceptance up here. So that's where we are right now in the nasdaq Tenure note flat right now Gold continuing to trend lower I think there is a decent chance then we get to some of these resting bids below again. 1958 a key Resting bid below crude continuing to trend lower a similar look 7830 definitely on the map here in terms of these resting bids below us And spooze now Starting to look a little bit more sprightly not quite above the 30 minute opening range But certainly above vwap and the point of control Nasdaq continuing higher. So starting to build some acceptance up here looking more constructive Someone asks, uh, carl jones asks He says he's beginning to trade crude. Are there any indicators that you'd recommend carl? Tell me more about your time frame. Are you trading intraday? Are you trading day to day? Are you trading week to week? What's your time frame for trading crude because that's going to affect how I Talk about what indicators to potentially use there And this is a question on the youtube for folks that are on Uh, twitter or discord just fyi And again, nasdaq is continuing to push higher breaking above that 20 minute opening range Looking pretty constructive here as it builds volume above s and p Not confirming that yet Intraday trading of crude. So, uh, carl, are you using book map because that would be a pretty important tool Look at this nasdaq chewing through this liquidity moving higher. This is a long here We've built enough volume above. We're starting to make this push. I think from an intraday basis There's room. You also see liquidity Building up above on these resting offers. That's another thing that's really constructive to see when price is moving in favor of that It typically acts like a magnet. So nasdaq looks like a Just an intraday long based on breaking out of that 20 minute opening range and building some continuation there so Yeah, so for um trading oil intraday back to your question, carl I would look at short term moving averages. This is a very volatile instrument So it always takes very small position sizes and intraday crude trading because it can change on a dime Uh, you're going to need wider stops than if you're trading another vehicle because of that volatility And if you see in book map, I'll put it on screen Um, the order book depth and crude is very small. It's 6.6 thousand contracts right now That's not much at all. So that means it doesn't take a lot of order flow to move price a lot Which is another reason it's important to be very cautious of size Yeah, uh, so book map is great because you can see how this resting liquidity Can impact price. I would recommend having the mbo data so you can see icebergs and stops in crude I like having liquidy differential tracker on that and cumulative volume delta So I use a similar set of tools that I'm using in spools and cues For crude, but I just tune it a little bit, right? So you don't want every iceberg and every stop to print So you're probably going to want to increase your thresholds there To make sure that you're only seeing the more meaningful data So it's not clogging up your screen and I'm taking this view app and point of control And I'm looking at the volume from globe x open right to kind of balance that out So price below would have me looking at this a little more bearish Below point of control and a view app price above would have me look at it a little bit more bullishly And similarly finding the opening range that works best for you is really important You can either use an indicator you can eyeball it But you know quantifying the opening range in crude like recently We kind of pushed to a new opening range low and we're building some volume here potentially accepting it I think if we continue lower that's going to be an opening range breakdown That would tell me I want a short crude probably down to about 78 or so on that first kind of attempt So let me know if that helps Also, I think it's important with crude to zoom out have a bigger chart like everything else. Look at the day to day Chart so a daily time frame weekly time frame get some your key Intraday levels from those longer term charts, right because it tends to be actionable You tend to revisit price has memory and so understanding those really important areas of price action and where both People in the auction don't want to participate and really like to participate We'll help you because you can track those in your intraday chart and see how price reacts to those levels to get a little bit more of an idea So let me know if that helps Yeah, you're welcome. Absolutely All right, so folks, this has been a pleasure really appreciate it You can find me at traderade traderade.com and macro visor macro visor dot com Traderade is the name suggests more for traders macro visor more for investors You can get 40 off book map by visiting traderade.com slash book map And just scroll down to the specials and also if you want 25 off Visit traderade.com and at checkout type in book map 25 for 25% off Discord that first month book map 25 for 25% off This is for the first 10 people and promo only lasts until tomorrow Because we don't really need to sell it, but we want to give you all a little bit of a Discount for tuning in show my appreciation So book map 25 at traderade at traderade.com when you're signing up for the discord So thanks everyone for tuning in really appreciate it. Check my youtube out as well I've got a live book map feed that's on you can always check out at youtube.com slash at mayhem for markets And if you're not already following me on twitter Follow me on twitter as well posting regular insights throughout the week So thanks again for joining me for this session of checking out book map every tuesday 9 a.m I hope to see you next week and be in touch throughout