 Hello and welcome to the Monday at market update with me David Madden today's date is Monday the 10th of September And the time has just gone 902 bird of summer time Well, it's been a fairly quiet start to the European session this week Even though the usual problems of the potential trade of the credit rates back between China and the US Rumbles on and also the same old worries about emerging a market economy just taking on but I've been said it's been a fairly Quiet start to the European session over the weekend We get some trade figures coming out of China and the numbers show that China's trade surplus with the United States has not reached a record level This is sure to actually fire up Donald Trump and actually I can add weight to President Trump's argument That there's a trading imbalance between the two nations and that is up to him to actually Rebalance the trading relationship President Trump has already warned that we could see an additional $200 billion worth of tariff being imposed on Chinese imports Very soon and there's also a potential the possibility of another $260 billion worth of tariffs and Chinese imports lined up behind that as well There is no progress on that on that so far But that that's what's hanging over the markets in relation to the the trade conflict between Washington DC and Beijing Speaking of the United States at the back end of last week We had a solid update from the US in terms of the non-farm payrolls over two hundred One of our two hundred one thousand jobs were added in August a solid number the unemployment rate remained unchanged at three point nine percent But the most important component of the jobs report was of course the wages figure average wages on a yearly basis increased grew by two point nine percent and this really kind of Spark chatter that we could have two more rate hikes from the Federal Reserve this year The Federal Reserve the Federal Reserve are meeting this month and there's already a quite high probability we could see a rate hike But now does he increased? Talk of it of a rate hike in both September and also in December and that is as she pushed it pushed the US dollar higher And obviously the higher US dollar that's likely to put further pressure on emerging market economies and emerging market currencies Such as the Turkish Turkish lira also currencies that are under pressure the Indian rupee is a political crisis In Argentina Venezuela's under pressure and also, South Africa is on is now in a technical recession So these are all issues that they need to keep an eye on these are the major themes of the markets this week Take a look at the week ahead and the week ahead can be found on our website It's called a CBCMarkets.com under news and analysis. You'll find the week ahead article It covers the major corporate and economic stories of the week ahead So tomorrow your first figures from JD Sports on Tuesday and Thursday. We have you key in employment wages We want to have the Bank of England great decision On Wednesday, we have a full year figures from the Nelm on Wednesday We have it. There's a there's a new apple apple having an event on and it's And we could see the the launch of it of a new iPhone We also see could enhancements made to the iPhone 8 On Thursday, there's the back of it is that sorry apologies on Thursday. It is the European Central Bank the ECB Rate meeting the European Central Bank I've talked about winding down their QE policy at the back end of this year So we could be that's how our traders will be looking out for and On Friday, we have a Chinese retail sales and also industrial production and also on Friday We've retail sales coming out of the US. So taking a quick look now at some of the major markets I'll see how they're shaping up starting off with the FTSE 100 And on Friday The FTSE 100 fell to a level not seen since April so it really sums up how kind of negative sentiment I we've seen in the FTSE 100 the market has been gonna in a In a downward trend since early August up that month So we saw a lower look so a lower low lower high and then we saw another lower low If you take a look at the MACD is around the index MACD indicator We can see a steady increase in negative momentum. So as markets moving lower there's an increase in negative momentum So we so the downward move is being confirmed by the increase in negative momentum So if the if this move does continue to push on lower We could look at targeting this area here of 7,000 this area here of 7,100 and 88 Moved to the upside could run into resistance in around in around this area here at 7,422 and move beyond that We could see resistance coming to play at the 30 moving average this red line here Which is at 7,490 Take a look now what's going on over in Germany in the decks So German market has been pushing lower since late july and we can see here that the the valley in july Got nowhere near the high the high of june so the market turned overall itself But they'd managed to find some support from this area here in around the 1200 level The market pushed higher but the august high got nowhere near the july high and then the market sold off quite heavily And as you can see here, I've had a quite a size a size of break below this area here I've been around 12,100 And the market uh on friday fell to a level once again That's like like the fudsy fudsy level not seen since April so really kind of sums up how kind of negative the sentiment is Taking a look at the market indicator. There's also a steady increase in negative momentum So this downward move is being confirmed by the steady increase in negative momentum So the the the momentum and the kind of the pace is with the sellers for the time being If the market does continue to push on north from here We could find some support coming to play from this area here in around the 11,750 area And if you go south of that, the area to keep an eye for would be this area here just shy of the south of 11,700 And if you go break below that we could see further losses Move to the upside should we bounce higher from here could run into resistance Uh, this all support may act after a future resistance which comes to the play at 12,123 This area here is could be a potential Potentially important level seeing as it actually has fairly this decent support on a few occasions in the last over months And if you move on higher from there We could be looking at any backup towards this blue line here and 50 moving average of 12,477 Take a look now what's going on in the u.s markets As I mentioned, we had a fairly decent update from from the us and finally with the non-front payrolls report Take a look at the dow Jones. So the dow Jones hit a multi-month high in august At the back end of august and I could give back a small bit of ground since then But notice how the dow Jones has managed all above above this line here, which comes Which is comes to the play in around 25,820 and that that line there that this area here coincides with the With the late february high. So we've managed to break Break above the what would be the old resistance and now it is actually potentially acting as support And if you manage to get a push on higher from here The first area to keep an eye for will be the late august high Which comes into play in around the 26,170 region and if we go beyond that, we could be looking at any back of towards 20 26,300 in this area here Move to the downside. Should we fall back below this area here at 25,820? We could be looking at any back down towards 25,507, which should be the um The higher from the the middle of March and also we see some consolidation in around that level In both july and also in august Take a look at what's going on in the gold market see goals being uh Trading in a fairly fairly small range in the past number of weeks Goals we kind of dragged continue to be dragged around by the u.s. Dollar as I mentioned The u.s. Dollar is uh, is on the up given the the strong earnings figures We saw from the rest at the back end the last week But granted the u.s. Dollar is still well off the uh the highs of august which in fact were 24 d nice So if you do look to kind of retake the u.s. Dollar index does look to retest The august the august highs we could see further pressure on the gold market and gold has been in a very solid downward trend since able to class example of lower lows and lower highs While we remain below this balloon on here the fifth removing average which comes to play at 1215 The august is likely to remain negative for gold if you manage to continue to push on lower from here We could be looking heading back down towards 17. Sorry apologies 11 75 and if you go below 11 75 We could be looking at retesting the recent low of 11 60 sticking with the commodity theme and heading over now to Brent crude oil Brent crude oil has Market has removed the Brent crude oil market has removed a good chunk of the ground that had lost relative between may and the middle of august. So the market has been pushing higher here. We're back above The one or the moving average and notice how is this yellow line here? The one moving average is actually actually as support in the last couple of sessions Which comes into play at 75 spot 51 if we continue to hold above that metric We could see the market heading back up potentially towards it to retest 80 and if you go beyond 80 to keep an eye on then for the The high in May of 80 spot 89 and if you go beyond 80 spot 89 Next year to keep her for will be 81 spot 53 And if you go go ahead of towards if you go north of 81 we are looking at multi-year highs Moves at the downside In in in Brent crude oil if you manage to fall back below the quality moving average Support might be found at this blue line here the 250 the moving average which comes to play at 74 spot 56 And if you go south of there support might come into play in on the 72 50 region It's nearly been a very decent consolidation in recent months And there you really need to keep an eye on for on the Brent crude oil chart is this red line here at the journey moving average Notice how it acted as very decent support back in the middle of august So there's a possibility it may act as support again in the future And the and the 20 moving average comes into play at 71 spot 47 Now the WTI market isn't as strong, but broadly speaking it's The shape in the chart looks reasonably similar. So WTI once again Receive support from the fifth in from the quality moving average this apologies the journey moving average this red line here um as it as the Brent crude and And WTI has been pushing higher since uh since since early august, but it has actually actually kind of give up So some of some of the some of the gains but while it holds above this red line here The attorney moving average which comes to play at 65 spot 71 It's likely that the outlook will remain positive And if you do continue to push on higher from here They start to keep an eye forward with the upside will be in around the 61 spot 70 region And if you go beyond that you could be looking at Retargeting 72 spot 79 Move to the downside and like I said may find some support at the Trinity moving average at 65 spot 71 and if you go south of that That will that will be kind of quite worrying singers that area did manage to act as support previously But if you do make breaks out in south of it keep an eye out for the made at june low of 63 spot 58 Take a look now at a couple of currency pairs So the euro has been losing losing ground First you have started since april We had a fairly decent bounce back between made and late august But still the market has appeared to turn over turn over on itself yet again um It did when the market rally between made and late august didn't quite get as high as one spot 1750 and Notice how that area has as actually has a bit of resistance area in recent months So while we remain south of one spot 1750 it's likely that the outlook for your dollar will remain negative If it needed to push on north from here, we could be looking at retesting the one spot 1510 area or one spot 15 It did act as a fairly decent support Earlier earlier in recent months. So it could act as a decent support again in the near term But if you manage to break south of one spot 15, we could be looking any back down for the august low of the one spot 13 region Uh, if you manage to break above one spot 1750 and there to keep an eye for will be one spot 1850 Notice how did that area was actually Was a area both support and resistance in recent months And lastly take a look at the pound versus the u.s. Dollar So the pound has also been losing ground versus the greenback since uh since april And unfortunately it remains in the in the downward trend Take take a look at this blue line here the 50 moving average We've seen on a few occasions the market has tried to actually Has pushed up against it but hasn't actually quite gotten above yet So why we we remain south of this uh this blue line here of the 50 moving average What's comes to play around again at one spot 30 region? Um, if you remain south of that area It's likely that the outlook is going to remain negative for pound versus u.s. Dollar And if you do manage to kind of drift lower from here We could be looking at targeting the recent note of one spot 2785 and if you go south of that, we could be looking any back down towards We could be the august flow of one spot 2661 and if you go south of that We could be looking any back down towards one spot 2590 But if you do manage to break above the 50 moving average Which comes is playing around the 130 area that area may then act as support And if you continue to push on higher from there, we could be looking at targeting This yellow line here at the 100 moving average, which comes into play at one spot 32 21 One spot 32 21 22 Uh notice how this this this area here Kind of coincides with with an area of uh Very very sizable consolidation uh back in may uh May through july that area to kind of one spot 32 30 to 50 one spot 32 kind of 20 region has acted as a as a bit of a As a bit of a resistance zone previously that could actually act as a resistance once again in the near term If you have any comments on this video or any other videos that we create here CMC markets, feel free to leave leave us a review on google reviews. Um, and that's all for me this week. Thank you very much