 The one thing that the market has shown over and over again is resiliency, right? It looks adversity in the eye, smiles, and keeps pushing forward. And you could see the last headline, damaging headline, potential political headline we saw of the Taliban taking over Afghanistan, right? Markets sold off two, three days, got a yacht a week later. Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access to Trader.com weekend update show. Everybody is doing well. There's an old adage on Wall Street and it says trading or the market is the only business in the world when things are on sale, people don't want to buy. And that's kind of where we segue into the whole Black Friday happy Thanksgiving and all that good stuff. And the market got hit pretty decent this week. When you look at the tally towards the end of the week, you see the Nasdaq 100 down about three and a half percent, both S&P and the Dow Jones down over 2%. But it kind of spilled over into everything else. You had oil plunge, 12%, you had cryptos, Bitcoin all having a really hard time. So a lot of the steam came out of all asset classes all across the board. And the catalyst obviously was this new variant that came out of Africa that the World Health Organization deemed as concerning. And that's a very, very important word. And Wall Street is a very finicky place. We always, when we say we as Wall Street, it's always a situation, shoot first, ask questions later. And that's exactly what happened in the day before Thanksgiving and the day after Thanksgiving. You saw a pretty big aggressive selling. Now here's the million dollar question. You guys know that the term, you know, you guys ever hear that terminology, if a tree falls in the forest and nobody's around to see it fall, does it make a sound? Well, think about it this way. If there's nobody around from Wednesday, let's just say from Tuesday to Wednesday, the most aggressive holiday travel days and people taking obviously the long weekend off. If nobody's around to defend prices, is it really as bad as it looks? And the one thing I always look at from the point of trading, not necessarily investing, but from the point of trading is always have a logical cool head about it. Always think, always look, always use your brain for the worst case scenarios, always play double advocate, but always look at things from, well, what can improve? What can get better? Where is this a big exaggeration? And the answer going into the next week is, we kind of don't know yet. So I think a lot of people looking at the scoreboard this weekend are going to be freaked out. And, you know, again, the sensationalizing of news is always what this news outlets do. That's how they get paid for clicks, advertising, all that stuff. So you're going to see a lot more aggressive news stories to the negative, almost like fear mongering versus the good fuel story of how good the market has done, how stocks have performed, how all asset classes have performed, because negativity and bad news obviously sells more advertising space. And that's what it's all about. It's not reality, it's their reality and pushing the narrative. So I think before anybody starts trying to figure out what the market's going to do going into next week based on how we close this week, take a step back, logically take a step back. Think about all the results and think about all the things that we've gone through for the last two years and recent news events. And let's kind of review. Pandemic, March of 2020, we all get locked down. Quarantine, people lose their minds. Worst time, right? Market goes to all time highs and all these different things, all these different variants come along the way. We just don't hear about every single variant, right? We don't hear. We heard about the last one before the African one, blah, blah, blah. We don't hear about it. It somehow gets out and we get freaked out for like two, three days and yada, yada, yada, four days later, the market's all time highs. We don't know if this is going to be any different, right? So we have this variant that got out, apparently has not spread yet. And again, that's the word yet. We don't know. Throughout the United States, I think of most places. So I think it's still one of those wait and see scenarios. I don't think we could deem bull a bear market versus this news. But the one thing that the market has shown over and over again with headlines, even going back to the worst financial crisis in our lifetime, right? We're not named the 1927 crash. The one thing that the market has shown over and over again is resiliency, right? It looks adversity in the eye, smiles and keeps pushing forward. And you could see the last headline, damaging headline, potential political headline we saw of the Taliban taking over Afghanistan, right? Market sold off two, three days, yada, yada, a week later, all time highs. So if you take a step back today, right? And you're doing your research, of course, you're going to see tons of charts that look terrible, right? Terrible. It's very, very tough to turn around and say, wow, that stock looks great. I'm all in. This stock is going to break out. There's no breakouts when there's geopolitical, financial or any type of adversity staring you in the face. You just want to see what happens next. The cool part about trading, I don't care what kind of a trader you are, you could trade pivots, you could be swing trader, day trader, E-minis, crypto, whatever the case may be, you always want to be prepared for the worst case scenario. But you also want to be level headed enough to kind of understand the ramifications if the other side of the coin doesn't play out. So you have to be ready for everything. And yes, the charts look terrible going through this week. A lot of stocks had technical damage, even the names that were supposed to rally yesterday, right? On this whole potential lockdown somewhere in the universe again. Names like Zoom that gapped up yesterday 30 points, but sold off 15. Names like, for example, Netflix that gapped up 17 points, sold off 10. So they were even selling off the stay at home names. So going into this week, the coolest part about trading and investing, the market is always going to be there. I've always maintained the new trader, the sophisticated trader, if you want to have a long, long career, you always have to look at trading as a long-term game. It's a marathon. You're at zero obligation to put on trades on Monday, on Tuesday, on Wednesday. If your process doesn't highlight those trades, if you are a perma bull, this type of environment is obviously bad for you. If you are a perma bear, well, this type of environment is to your advantage. But keep this in mind. When you have a selling environment, you have less participants. What does that mean? You have larger spreads, wider spreads, you have smaller participation in the market. That means less liquidity. So even though stocks will continue to go lower, it's very, very tough to get the liquidity you want, then when you have a normal participation day, then just the stock to be weak. So there's an iron sword on both sides. But the worst case scenario on both sides, what you're going to be suffering is kind of what we saw on Wednesday, a day before Thanksgiving and on Friday, the day after. And that is the breakdown of market structure. What does that mean is stocks go up and down very, very easily with no liquidity, with absolutely no participation, and it becomes very, very tough to manage. And the one thing, and again, I don't care how you're trading for a living or what type of way your process lets you to get alpha, the most important part is what we do, all this, right, is market structure. We need to know bids are going to be there. We need to know offers are going to be there. We need to know a stock like, for example, like a Tesla, they usually trades in a 20, 30, 40 cent spread, is not trading at $1.50 spread, a $1.80 spread at 11 o'clock in the morning. That means there's a lack of participation. That's not good for anybody. Okay, I don't care how many shares you're trading, if Tesla's going against you $3, $4, $5, $6, that's not a good thing. Okay, unless you're trading three shares, right? That's not a good thing. And the same thing, like I was watching Amazon, it was, you know, quite a little pivot on Amazon, a little cash flow on Amazon on Friday. But the point is, Amazon at the open went from literally $36.20 to $36.36, back to $36.05, back to $36.20, like that. Again, lack of market participation. So that's the biggest fear for any trader. That's the biggest fear for anybody who is very, very active throughout the week, that that's an aggressive trader. And again, aggressive doesn't mean you have to put on 30 trades a day. All it means you're an active participant in the market. And the last thing we want to see is irrational moves moving because air, right? Air is dictating and not a technical move that is complimented and confirmed by supply and demand. So that's kind of my biggest fear going into this week, right? It's not the point of how many setups can you get for Monday. It's the point of how many setups you can get for Monday and structurally, right? Structurally can confirm properly and go down with liquidity, right? Not go down on air, but go down with liquidity. And the one thing that we desperately need going into Monday's session is a theme. Arrange that the market will make sure that the buyers and sellers are stabilized. And I think that's the most important part. Market go down on Monday, market go up on Monday. But the most important part is we need a trend. We need a theme. So going into Monday's session, I want to see what happens. Okay, at least for the first half hour, I'd love to see the liquidity come back. I do believe more market players will return on Monday because, again, people were just off towards the latter part of the week because of Thanksgiving. And I do believe that we will finally get a true nature of what's about to happen for the rest of the week based on Monday and Tuesday. So if this is another headline, another point of reference that the bulls can shake off and say, all right, look, we went through the initial lockdowns, the initial pandemics, we went through, we went through this, we went through that, we're at all time highs. Let just let this play out a little bit, right? Let this play out a little bit. You don't need to be the first kid in the pool at 9.30 in the morning. Trust me, there are no breakouts when market structure is deemed questionable. Okay, there's a lot of noise going on and both sides are going to be exposed. So even though stocks are going lower, you could have a scenario, a stock goes up $36 in your face before it goes lower because of the lack of market participation. So we need the market participation. We need a trend. We need liquidity and we need to know which way the wind is going to flow. The market wants to go lower. God bless. Let it go lower. And obviously, I'm looking at a bunch of short setups for Monday. But the point is, we'd like to see that market structure support the way we're looking at the market, the data is playing out. And we want to see that we can enter and exit trades seamlessly, whether it's a win, lose, or draw. But the point is that market structure is going to be available to us. So let's talk about where we are, right? If you look at where we are from a naked eye, if you're not an active participant in the market, it's really not that bad. It looks bad because we had a 3.5% decline. But keep this in mind, we had a 3.5% decline off full all-time highs. It's not like we had a 3.5% decline from the bottom. We got 3.5% decline from the tops. It still tells you who's still in control of the market. And the market has been incredibly strong since the 50-day moving average reclaim on October the 18th. Well, we'll start getting a little more nervous. If we start, again, I don't want to use the word nervous, but a little more cautious in our approach, especially if you're trading anything to the long side, but for anything more than cash flow, we want to start watching this 387 level on a close. You see this whole area, guys, that's the kind of like this rising middle wedge that if it starts losing, then all this that we attained in the last several weeks starts to fall. It starts to fall like a little bit of a domino. If we start losing this 387 level, then yeah, maybe we could start slowly, surely coming back to the 50-day moving average. And this is where this whole last rally has started, right? That's the bear case. The bull case is people return on Monday, people return on Monday and Tuesday. The news is digested. It doesn't seem to be anything more exotic that we've seen now for the last three, four waves of COVID. I don't even know how many waves we've had. Maybe we're on wave nine. Who the hell knows, right? All these waves of COVID, the people cooler heads prevail. We digest information. A lot of bulls turn around and say, well, this mark, this news is not exotic. It's not anything for us to be completely worried about because now we've lived this now for two years in a row. We kind of are used to this. It's not anything that we need to overly prepare for. Just stay prudent. Obviously, if you can get vaccinated, that's great. If you get the booster shot, that's great. No judgment. If you don't, that's up onto you. I'm just kind of stating what it is and kind of start looking at value and say, hey, you know what? Amazon came back 150 points. I still love it. Let me take it higher. Tesla came 150 points off its highs. I still like it. Take it higher. So we're going to get a very good early dose or at least a dose of where the market participants are leaning to come Monday and Tuesday. And if this is a traditionally bullish time of year and when it is towards the fourth quarter, maybe we still get that year and run. Maybe we still get that year end markup, window dressing. But at the same time, we have to be very prepared for the downside. And I always look at the market from a big macro purchase of where we are. But then I start breaking you down day by day. I might love Tesla one day, technically. And things happen in the market. I might hate it the next day. And that's the whole point. Take it day by day. Take it research by research. And the most important part is think logically. You don't need to play the two, seven offsuit. You don't need to play the nine, three offsuit. Wait for the face cards. Right? Wait for the face cards. Even if it's not tomorrow, even if it's not Thursday, even if it's not Friday, the market will still be there. And if you've been on a magic carpet ride, and I know a lot of you guys have, you really appreciate when the market structure is there and you're getting ridiculous value. Right now, there is some value. There's some value to the downside on Monday. We have to see how the market plays out. No rush to judgment. Let the market tell you which way the wind is going to blow. And the most important thing is take it day by day. Take it trade by trade. There is no rush. There is no pressure. The most important part is stay in business. So let's talk about some ideas for Monday. Let me give you guys some longs. Let me give you guys some shorts. Again, I'm in a wait and see mode. I'm not really a very aggressively opinionated for Monday's session, but there's some names I like short. And there's definitely names I like long. BBY had earnings. They had earnings, had a magnificent run, and now the run is over. And the bull will turn around and say, well, it's Black Friday. The market's already spoken. I want to watch this thing. Any close below the earnings low, if you've been watching this broadcast the last several weeks, you kind of know how important it is for the bulls to hang on to their earnings lows, especially when they blow up on earnings. One would say this is a pretty big gap down in earnings. First day under BBY, if it closes below the earnings low, just like Zillow did, just like Beyond did, and Peloton, and Roku, and any other stock that blew up in Fubu, any stock that blew up on earnings, first close below the earnings low should start a cycle of selling. So I want to definitely keep an eye on that. Look at Rivian. Rivian, I still think this thing goes lower. It held this double, I guess you could call a double bottom, but it held this double bottom. There's more selling to come this week. I like this thing. Actually, you can make a case, this is almost a triple bottom. I like this area here. If it starts losing this bottom channel here, maybe it finally sees IPO lows. Here's an interesting play speaking of Peloton. I kind of, I don't want to say I like it, but I think it's at least worthy of our attention. You see how it's stopped? You see how it keeps on getting rejected off the 10-day, right? Off this green line, 10-day, 10-day keeps on getting rejected. Friday it tested the green line again, or the 10-day moving average. If this thing can just reclaim the 10-day, maybe it gives us a couple of days worth of bounce. Keep an eye on the thing, especially if, again, if these stay-at-home stocks continue to get bit up. So keep an eye on that. Also, Krispy Kreme donuts, right? Doesn't look sexy. Doesn't smell sexy, but it kind of looks sexy, right? Take a look at this whole range here. They debuted back. Krispy Kreme is the trade of the symbol KKD. It got stuff twice at the top of the range here. Keep an eye on it for this week. If it starts building upon that 15, 80, 16 level, maybe this thing wakes up, especially if the market has a bounce. Keep an eye on it as well. That looks pretty interesting. Square, look at square this week. Maybe not imminent for Monday, but look at this bear flag it's putting in here. In case they start selling off the market again, watch the bottom channel here. It's held now three separate times. If they start selling off tech, this is definitely one to watch for a continued move back to the downside. So moral of the story is sometimes you get an ugly-looking scoreboard, and believe me, you'll get ugly-looking charts. If you do your research this weekend, you'll see some hideous-looking charts, right? Most important, just remember, you don't need to trade every single day. It's all about the long game, not about the individual trade. And continue to play the premium hands. If there's no premium hand, there is no play. Once you have that mentality and let go of all the emotional baggage of the FOMO and all that stuff, the most important part is you'll stay in business, but you'll let your business run organically. And for all you guys, just kind of a last bit message, for all you guys who have wondered about Pivots, and again, I've always maintained it's a pretty advanced way to trading. I wouldn't say Pivots are for everybody just because there's so many different moving parts, but for all you guys who have experienced success with Pivots and you want to kind of learn more, we're running a pretty cool deal from now to the end of the year. It's the live webinar, it's the Twitter feed, all the workshops, everything. It's really, really cool just to kind of get you understanding if Pivots are the right fit for you. And the only way to find out is to actually seed first hand. It's very, very cool. It's not the normal and the most important part is once you understand it and then stand the moving parts, it really does become pretty seamless to navigate. So guys, have a great, great weekend. For all you guys who are joining us on Monday, I wish you guys the best. Please watch the workshops, both the 2.0 and the 3.0, kind of get a first hand, get your feet wet of what this pivot thing is all about. And for the rest of you guys, I wish you guys the best health and happiness and God's love. And I will see you all next week. Take care.