 All right, what's up everybody? This is Alex from Xtrades and welcome back to another weekly trade ideas list Hope everybody had a wonderful trading week last week had a good weekend all that good stuff It was a very crazy week in the market last week. We had a very big sell-off one day We did recover a lot of the drop on Friday But overall I would say there's just some crazy swings in the market this week and overall you could tell that the volatility Was starting to pick up a little bit last week Amazon did really good from our list We're looking at calls on that above 180s hold up 180s pretty good had a nice rally up towards that 188 all-time high resistance WBA. We're looking at longs on that that actually flushed down a very big support had a pretty rough week I did not end up entering that one and then we also have Baba which ended up just pretty much closing flat Really didn't go anywhere. I still like that for a longer term setup So definitely keep Baba on watch But hopefully this week will have a little bit more success in the setups because really it was just Amazon that had a pretty killer Week and usually I would say at least two out of the three that we cover usually have a pretty good week But really was only Amazon last week, but overall we got some good trades in TSM. Actually I closed in for profit I was down pretty heavy on it ended up recovering very nicely Hopefully we have some good setups this week sometimes they need a little bit longer than one week to play out So just because we have a new list this week doesn't mean you have to take the old setups off the watch list If they haven't played out yet, there's still you know some potential there as long as it hasn't broken any big levels We do have a really big data set on Wednesday. You can see we really have nothing scheduled for Monday and Tuesday It's really just a Austin Goolsbee interview on the radio at 1 p.m That's the only Fed speaker for Monday and then Wednesday is the big one of the week It's gonna be the CPI it's pretty straightforward. We want to see inflation trending lower We don't want to see it sticking like the last couple reports one of the reasons We went so low on Thursday and sold off so aggressively We had Neil Cash cars beaking and he put some doubts into the rate cut narrative So that was one big reason why we sold off so aggressively this week I don't think we have as many Fed speakers that could be a good thing But like I said, we do have the CPI we want to keep seeing that trending lower We want to see rate cut odds increase in order to keep that bullish narrative going so hopefully CPI can continue It's trend lower. We don't want to see it sticking like I said We do have Austin Goolsbee speaking again and then also at 2 p.m We have the minutes from the March meeting for the Fed You will basically see the same things in black and white that you heard at the press conference Or in the pre-written statement from Jerome Powell and basically it just gives a little insight into the meeting Maybe the algorithms will pick up on something in the black and white that it didn't catch during the last meeting But usually it's basically just a reiteration of what we already know from the meeting And then on Thursday another inflation gauge, but on the producer side We have the producer price index core PPI also PPI and core PPI year over year And then we have some Fed speakers that day as well We got Bowman Collins, Goolsbee and Bostick speaking that day So it looks like we do have a couple Fed speakers this week Not as much as we did last week and I feel like they've just been all over the place Like there's been all sorts of different opinions about rate cuts where they think future rates are headed And it's kind of been a little bit all over the place And then on Friday the big one is just going to be consumer sentiment at 10 that can bring some mid-session volatility 30 minutes after the bell So basically the big one is going to be the CPI obviously Second most important probably going to be the PPI and then I would say the Fed minutes as well at 2 p.m And that's on the day of the CPI so that could bring some volatility as well It just depends like I really don't think there's really going to be anything that we missed It's basically just going to be a reiteration of the last meeting And it really just depends if algorithms and other traders pick up on anything that they might have not seen in the last meeting And then also Friday consumer sentiment. So that's for the economic data this week I would say it's pretty stacked CPI and PPI are pretty big also Fed minutes and consumer sentiment couple Fed speakers as well Thursday. All right, not to the seasonality this week We do have April 8th to the 12th last week's was pretty bullish And we had a pretty mixed week last week But overall I mean dips were getting bought and we'll go over that in the spy later So I would say we still held up the relatively positive seasonality considering we held up levels Really didn't break anything too major despite that big drop on Thursday Dip buyers keep showing up regardless and we really haven't seen a big shift in the market So this week it's pretty similar to last week. It's pretty bullish We got winning trades at 63% Summarized profit at 5% with 12 gains and seven losses in the last 20 years And then you can see there's kind of a little mini dip here I wouldn't say it's anything too big The dips don't really get too big until the end of April here historically And then also another big dip in June with summer trading The market tends to get a little bit weak So we really don't see any big shift in the seasonality or anything still relatively bullish Still kind of in an uptrend here historically and really until the market starts breaking some serious levels We're probably just going to keep seeing dip buyers show up as we did on Friday I mean that big drop got bought up instantly So no major shift in the seasonality. We can go down to the 10 year real quick Look at the most recent years. See if we see anything different. So here's 10 years It's a little bit different like we have zero profit here over the last 10 years We have winning trades at 60% with an average profit basically flat So nothing really crazy here in the most recent years, but the 20 year data set like I said has more data It's a little bit more credible Then you can see it's kind of similar towards the end of april's when we kind of see like a little dip I wouldn't even call this a big dip. This is more like consolidation Historically that led to another leg up towards the mid part of may So that's for the seasonality no big shift or anything still relatively bullish nothing crazy just yet So looking pretty good. All right on to the individual tickers We'll try to get through these relatively quick our first one here. We're looking at Caesar's entertainment. It's going to be ticker symbol CZR. I like how it's been consolidating It's really hasn't had a big run up or anything lately tolling support. It's pretty good You have strong support 39 70 38 33 at this low right here the 39 70 I believe comes from over here this little big bounce zone right here You can see it also held up over here as well. So the 39 70s to 38 33 is kind of like a support zone Obviously it bounced pretty good right here as well One thing we do have in the way this downtrend line test one test two big test three rejection Try to break out right here went back within came back out again Now trying to test that line again. Maybe we can break out here. Like I said, it's been consolidating for quite a while We are over the 9 21 and 50 day movie average here to 9 21 and the 50 on the same spot We are briefly over that one thing that could act as resistance your one day 200 EMA So you got to be careful of that overall It probably will need to reclaim that you can see a strong resistance right here Little rejection right here as well with a struggle overall to get over that one day 200 EMA So we'll need to get over that mac D is positive. So momentum indicator looks pretty good We are over the movie averages as long as that's holding over this can probably break back out Obviously a short term if you go down to the shorter term time frames, you're probably going to find a big resistance here 44 67 probably will need to get over that probably looks a little bit more serious if you go down to the one hour So that's a pretty big resistance for anything short term. It will need to get over that I really only like this for longer term calls something you can give it time because you really don't have a confirmed break out here yet You're kind of just speculating on nice consolidation Good support with the potential that could break out here start heading back higher To go to the one week really hasn't gone anywhere for months Probably even almost a whole year and you can see it's actually trying to break out Like we don't have a really big breakout bar or anything like that But it is trying to get out of there You can see there's kind of a head and shoulders You got a shoulder head another shoulder, but it kind of failed to break the neckline So maybe that neckline can hold up active support and we can get a little bit higher So that's for Caesars elected for longer term calls give you lots of time deal with draw it on risk If you really want to you could wait for it to actually break out and close outside of it Obviously, you do have a couple fake outs right here So another level you could wait for is that 44 67 break obviously that might take a little bit But that is another level you could wait for if you're skeptical at this downtrend line But Caesars elect calls here longer dated be patient give it some time. All right now to number two here This is se or see limited one thing I do like here We kind of have a little wedge or kind of like a flag formation. It ended up breaking out of that We also do have a reclaim over the 921 emate combo on the one day So this bar closed back over it is now confirmed back over the moving averages Which have acted as very good kind of a trend gauge You got a pull in here bounced off of that pull in right here bounced off of that as well A little bit of a struggle once they pulled in right here try to break under but now reclaiming back over So you have that plus this little wedge or flag breaking out Maybe the mac d crossing back up would be good as well But mac d is a little bit delayed So you don't really always need a mac d by signal to catch momentum Just another indicator to look at but you do have multiple things setting up here for the bulls Like I said, the wedge reclaim of one day 921 emate combo. So I do like calls here Obviously max upside I could see it's going to be this march 13th Resistance so I had a pretty big rejection there really can't see higher than that I would have to wait for it to break out of that before projecting higher But there is a lot of sell and bounce right here to kind of fill up So maybe it can fill up this little sell and bounce area and get up to 63 25 pretty easily Really just depends on Asian markets and sometimes Asian markets are a little bit unpredictable So you never really know lots of gap ups and downs trading at different time zones. So but yeah, it looks pretty good I like this little wedge breakout nice consolidation now breaking out of that Like I said reclaim over the one day 921 emate combo right here also still holding over your 50 and 200 So that's a good sign for an uptrend It is over both of those plus you have the 50 crossing over the 200 here Which is also a good sign for the longer term trend that is technically a golden cross So that could be something worth watching as well But overall I like it here looking pretty good Like I said max upside 63 25 can't see higher than that And like I usually always say I don't always just expect price targets to hit in one week This may need time to get up to 63 25 So don't shit on me if it doesn't hit 63 25 this week. Just you know, be patient give stuff time TSM didn't even hit my price targets to start paying me until last week And that was a setup from a list probably a couple weeks ago. So sometimes they take time Just gotta be patient. All right and last but not least. This is our last one for individual tickers This is dvn We actually had this on the list weeks ago back in the beginning of march when I broke out of this downtrend line I'd probably go back and find that video at the beginning of march and this breakout was just huge I really wasn't expecting a move past 47 35 I was very wrong because it just kept going took a little bit to get up to the price target It took longer than one week like I said sometimes, you know, even after a breakout like this It'll take a little bit of time It did take at least two weeks to get up there from when we were looking at it But really nice setup. I mean, it's just been going straight up since but now we are pulling into this big supply zone This is a rally-based drop zone. So I'm looking for a short-term resistance on this I believe the crude oil futures are opening up probably about negative 1% right now So that could be the start of oil selling off a little bit has had a pretty good run lately Might be a little bit risky to go against that trend, but overall this is a pretty gnarly supply zone So naturally I'm going to look for some type of short-term resistance at least You probably need to start looking to take profit if it pulled into the one day nine EMA You can see the one day nine is a pretty good support level It bounced off of it right here back then right here as well So overall if it can pull back into that nine EMA, it could probably hold up there and try to act as support So you got to be careful with that If you are shorting on an extension over the EMAs use the EMAs once it gets back down there as your price target Because you never really know if it's going to hold as a higher low and rip back up So that's a good short-term price target to go off of see how it reacts If it starts closing under that nine you can start aiming for the 21 etc So dvm looking pretty good for potential resistance We really don't have a big rejection bar or anything just yet. You might need to take out this friday low Which is going to be at 52 33 So if you can take out that friday low of 52 33 That probably signals some type of short-term reversal But the risk to reward is pretty good here directly at supply So that 52 33 if you do go short up here That could be a good short-term price target to look at wait for that to flush and you could aim for the one day 90 EMA also still at macd positive. So trend is still bullish here overall the moving averages etc So if you do look at short-term stuff short-term puts on this a little bit riskier If you want to buy 30 plus days probably a better bet give a time to You know, maybe fart around a supply if it wants to go a little bit higher Maybe you can find some resistance inside that will give you time to deal with draw down risk If it wants to go a little bit higher go 30 plus days out But just depends on your goals how big you go etc. So dvm looking at puts Probably a little bit riskier risk off is going to be if it clears over probably 54 50s think it's over that that means it's over supply and it can probably go higher So you have a little bit of leeway from 53 40s to about 54 50s. That's your supply zone It's from this open to this high on this little rally-based drop bar right here. All right non through the indexes last week on spy We had multiple levels We were looking at also looked at the futures for a second because they were breaking a 52 week high But you can see on monday We got over it briefly but ended up closing back under it and that set us up for a gap down on tuesday You could see on tuesday We closed back over it at a nice bounce on wednesday and even gapped up all the way back to 52 week high res On thursday before we sold off very aggressively the levels remarked are pretty accurate. You had 5 24s at the 52 week high res We have 5 18 22 which is kind of your back test resistance You can see once we got over that here on wednesday It was a very nice pop pulled into it again Later that day held it up pretty nice gapped up that day went up into 5 24s at 52 week high res sold off very aggressively once it got back under 5 18s even more aggressive And now we're slightly back over it again Another thing we're looking at was the s&p 500 futures So we did get briefly over that sunday night, but then once we got back under you could see the flush was very aggressive We also had this trend line drawn out. You can see once we lost that here on tuesday There's a pretty big flush came back up kind of for a back test of the general area and then an even bigger flush So the trend was broken even your little back test area right here had a nice bounce right there So the levels worked out pretty good. It was just very all over the place So for this week, it's basically the same thing. We still have 5 24s. We had the 5 18 22 We have this little drop base rally demand zone. It did not tap that We have 508 50 from this little bounce right here and then also 505 from this little structure low right here So same levels as last week moving averages. We did break under that one day 21 EMA I did not rush too short once I saw this I wanted to see how the non-farm payrolls was on friday, and i'm glad I did I didn't just jump into a put swing just because I saw it close under the one day 9 21 EMA combo Because once we got the non-farm payrolls, we added a lot of new jobs Has that strong economy narrative and people bought the dip So we're kind of back in that 9 21 EMA combo just kind of back in the same range I would say the market's still pretty bullish short term if we're opening over 5 18 22s Staying over the 5 18s does give us a chance to get back up to the 5 24s So just watch that 5 18s one new thing you can mark is that thursday low from that aggressive sell-off So you can mark that as a new level at 5 12 76 So we have 5 24s 5 18 22 5 12 76 and then your lower levels at 508 and 505s So go ahead and mark those I would say that the market still looks pretty bullish here One thing that's kind of showing indecision is this inside bar We might need to see a break over the inside bar high or the inside bar low Before we see any big shift in direction, but overall still back over your moving averages We are back over the 5 18s just briefly and overall just held up structure pretty good So go ahead and mark these Like I said, it'll be pretty good for scalps and stuff like that I really don't see a big shift in the market until we get under 5 12s the 508s and 505s Probably needs to get inside this gap as well right now dip buyers just keep showing up And it's just risky to short unless you're really like nailing entries like at the 52 week high res Etc. So that's for spy go ahead and mark these levels It should be pretty good for day trading next week and overall trend is still holding pretty good Really having a thing of big shift technically after Friday's close. All right Not to coo coo coo actually did a pretty nice fake out Sunday night So we were breaking out and we went over that on the enqueu futures We can go over that and a sec. We did have 448 sixties marked We did not get up there this week. We also had the 442s, which was Monday's low We ended up breaking under that, but overall I really wouldn't say there was a great deep ice zone until we got into this demand You can see it's a drop base rally zone really nice bounce on Friday here I zoomed down to the 15 minute Thursday's drop sent us straight into demand setting up for Friday's bounce I really wish I caught this on Friday ended up doing a couple put scalps and only one on one of them Pretty sure I pretty much broke even on Friday because I lost him one and then I won one as well I was kind of just hoping for a pop and then a little retrace back down to the lows But overall we kind of just had a V recovery didn't get all the way back up to the highs to complete the V or anything But this is pretty aggressive straight off demand and I did look at this But I really didn't go long by the time I was looking at it It already taken off probably half a percent just a pretty nice move for options So that 442 50s for the QQQ is pretty big you can see we kind of wicked off of that We will need to get back over that if you want to go ahead and mark that that's the previous weeks Structure low right here if you can get over that 442 is there is a straight shot to 448 Or at least this little Thursday structure high where we sold off so aggressively at the 446 95 probably just 447 flat So we really want to get over that 442 is in order to get to that level Otherwise, if you want to wait for a little dip by you wait for it to pull back into demand That could be a nice scale once it gets down there Friday prove that this is a nice little structure low drop base rally zone So go ahead and mark your 448 64 you have 446 95, which is that Thursday sell-off high I would definitely mark that since it's pretty recent. You also have drop base rally demand here It's probably from 436 down to 432 70s or so. It's this base candle right here from open to low That's your demand and then you have your gap structure low, which is at 433's this little line right here It will need to get inside that gap for a big reversal once it starts getting into that gap I feel like the market structure would shift pretty aggressively and I feel like that 433's or this little low area right here Is really what's holding us up as proved by this demand zone bounce on Friday and also these multiple bounces here from a couple weeks ago And then on the Nasdaq futures, we were looking at this on Sunday night We had this little breakout, but you can see it faked out pretty aggressively once we started getting back inside of it That's when the sell-off got a little bit more aggressive So that breakout we were looking at Sunday night did not have any fall through which kind of made it a little bit tricky Trading on Monday, but overall if you kind of mark this and you saw it fall back within That's a pretty good setup for the downside Once they rejected here on Monday morning or that Monday session It made a new point for this trend line if I test one you have the test two and this test three is from Thursday When we had that really really big drop So this little trend line going into next we could be a pretty big zone if we can get up there That could act as resistance if you want to go ahead and mark this new trend line It's this point this point and this point right here But if you just go from point a to point b and then hit the extension it'll extend out for you So that's for the QQQ basically just stuck in a range at the moment You have pretty strong reactions through these technical levels, especially at demand Towards near this 52 week high area all very kind of aggressive and emotional reaction So definitely mark those levels like I said 448 60s 447 442 54 Which we can get over that 442 50s area That's a pretty straight shot up to the highs and you also have demand you want to mark that then your 433 So just just your straight structure low needs to hold overall because if it doesn't hold that up It's gonna start flushing into the gap Oh, and that's been our least look at the movie averages real quick You can see we ended up kind of closing back over and we did have a pretty gnarly gap Oh once we closed here on Wednesday Gapped all the way up to the 447s basically and then gap back under it and then we're right back here So we actually did close under the 921 EMA combo on QQQ definitely want to keep an eye on that We probably will want to start closing back over that and I feel like that close over 442 50s That will give you a little bit of assurance that we are starting to get over that 921 EMA combo MACD is negative. So that's not very good But overall lots of these MACD signals in this range have kind of been fake outs I get a little MACD sell here and it really didn't have any follow through because we rallied right here You had a MACD sell off right here negative cross ended up rallying anyway So gotta be careful with the MACD signals I feel like the one week MACD signals are a little bit more reliable if you want to go ahead and look at those All right, and last but not least we'll look at the VIX real quick So last week we actually had 1367 as your volatility signal We wanted to see VIX getting over that for a short-term volatility signal up to the 1540s and look exactly what it did It's just crazy. I was expecting some type of meme regression back up to the resistance areas at some point I really wasn't just expecting it in one week, but like I said last week I mean these moves can happen in one candle as you see on the VIX right here You had a straight shot from 1367 to 15s in this candle Another one right here all the way up into the 17s almost So overall VIX can get very aggressive and we'll see people piling into hedges if they're scared So the technicals are working pretty good on VIX. If anybody tells you you can't chart the VIX It's definitely not accurate. I could even show you on the short-term time frames. So here is our 1367 volatility signal You can see here on Monday and this Tuesday area held up that 1367 very aggressive run up into 1540 Look at 1540 very aggressive sell-off general rejection of the 15s area right here pulled all the way into 1367 basically in this area another aggressive pop right here And then once we got over 1540 volatility got even more aggressive. So the 1540 breakout was huge That's when the market really started to dump probably lots of algorithms and other people who use volatility in the VIX to kind of position That was probably a very big sell signal for them. And that's why we got so aggressive There's also other ways to gauge volatility. So VIX is not the only one But that 1540 breakout I feel like that's when things got very aggressive and we sold off very hard So we basically have the same levels. I mean one thing we do have new this week. We closed over the 1540 I feel like it probably will need to hold up the 16s or keep going from the 16s in order to get to 1794 If the VIX starts selling off aggressively It probably will require a break back under 1540 and it closed under 1540 if it starts closing under 1540 You probably expect the market to rip because this is pretty much just a stray shot down to 1367 If it starts closing under 1540. So we do have a little bit of heightened volatility It's a little bit higher than it's been. We've been hanging out near the 12s and the 13s, etc We are now at 16 and above which actually elevated premiums a little bit I feel like the premiums got a little bit more expensive just after these couple days And you could tell just based off of you know the at the money strikes and overall ATR is widened as well You could tell that the range has just got a lot bigger, especially Thursday and Friday very wide You're not going to see the market move that wide all the time. It's very rare. So for this week if you're a bullish You're going to be looking for a signal under 1540s for the VIX It will need to sell back off under that for the market to go higher probably or at least see an aggressive balance in the Spy if you're a bearish and you want to see the market keep going lower or have a sell-off Kind of like what you saw on Thursday. You want to see it holding over 16s It will need to probably bounce off 16s to get up to 1794, which is this peak right here And there's a lot of free space above 1794 So if it breaks that wick high that basically brings you up into the 20s So if you're bullish, you definitely don't want to see VIX over the 18s or the 1794 area right there But definitely mark these levels same ones we had last week 1794 1604 1540 which is kind of your volatility zone once it gets over 15s It gets aggressive once it gets back below 15s the bouncing gets aggressive as well. You also have 1367 Which is this little sell-off period from that monday, um march 25th This was our short-term volatility signal last week You want to see price getting over that to see an aggressive move up. You also have 1237 Which is your multi bottom low right here also bounced right here And then your overall low at 1182. So go ahead and mark all of these They're all one day levels Definitely want to watch them. Like I said, if you want to see the market go higher We want volatility to stay under 16 and also get over 1540 eventually If you want to see it go higher and you want to see the market sell off has to stay over 16 Get up to the 1794 So hope you guys enjoyed this video. Make sure you like comment and subscribe Hopefully our setups are good this week last week. We only had amazon kind of Do the work for us. It was pretty nice Also had a late runner on tsm from the list a couple weeks ago It closed those calls last week. So hopefully I have some good setups this week Maybe a little bit more than one play out, but never really know Markets unpredictable. All we can do is take the risk look at the technicals, etc So I love you guys. I'm gonna go ahead and get this chopped up sent out all that good stuff I love you and i'm out There's a reason why x trades is currently the fastest growing application on the market for sharing financial ideas With over 2.5 million dollars paid in the last two years to contributors Users are flocking to see what trades the top traders on the leaderboard are sharing in real time If you're looking to grow your reputation as a trader on the internet or discuss your trading ideas with other reputable investors Click the link below and get connected with the trading mentor today completely free of charge