 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread? That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire comm My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire comm joint here as always by Ed Fang You can find them over at the power rank comm Ed. It's been a tough week Throughout the the earth. It's been a tough 300 years. You could argue as well How are you doing right now? I'm doing all right you like you said it's been been a tough week in the midst of a pandemic and Some things just don't go away in our great country Which cannot be so great sometimes, but I hope everything gets better and I'm looking forward to that soon It's been nice to sit back and listen to people. I think that's been beneficial for me sitting back and Reading different voices reading what they had to say reading, you know Why things have escalated and I think that it's beneficial to always in our in our lives read The opinions of other people, you know, because I grew up in a small town in Minnesota You're not gonna get a lot of like education on non-white people growing up in a small town in Minnesota So I think it's been beneficial to just sit back and listen to people read their perspectives read about why Everything is where it is and hopefully we can get the change in policing get the change that we need because It's night. It's good that people are angry. We need the anger and stuff like that So it's been good to sit back and listen and hopefully everyone else has been able to like sit back and listen a little bit and Read different perspectives and all that just because think that's kind of you know, what we have to do right now And just just reading a lot Ed, which is only I know you like reading so like at least that helps too I do I was actually listening on fresh air today. I think they someone wrote a book about a similar racial black man getting killed in Baltimore. Yeah, and You know the books coming out this month. I don't know why it's not out right now I don't know why you can't bump up your release date three weeks But it seems like some fortunate timing for that book Yeah, absolutely many to maybe we'll have to get a quarantine corner up about you know different literature We can read educate ourselves in this too, but hopefully all of you just taking the time to read different perspectives and You know reflect on yourself as well because that's always beneficial in times like these to realize how we got here And why we are here as far as covering the spread for today. We're gonna talk to Austin Cass He is one of my colleagues over at number fire comm He's one of our editors and he covers the English Premier League and Ed you've been watching the Bundesliga recently Yeah, we're getting the EPL back on June 17th Yeah, for sure. Very exciting. I'm excited mostly for like more of my friends that follow the EPL I'm still gonna watch more German soccer because I like German soccer. I sat down on Saturday for a match between Shaka which I had mentioned as a team that I picked up because I really like young American Western McKinney and They were playing Warder Bremen and I got even more excited because they have another Bremen has another young American Josh Sargent afford So I sat down. I was very excited and then That was the worst half of soccer I've ever seen both teams were awful and either American played that well and Yeah, it was disappointing, you know, like I did not I mean, you know McKinney had just scored a pretty sweet goal the game before like on a diving header But just I mean his team is really bad and you know Bremen actually scored a goal Which is pretty nice in that first half, but you know routinely just kind of pass the ball to the other team Which pretty sure is not what you're supposed to do not recommended. Yeah, not recommended So I was actually tweeting at some people that you know watch a lot more of this Wondering whether these teams are really bad or whether that was an awful first half and the answer was yes on all three accounts So Yeah, so anyways that that was you know I got a little better watch the little Byron Munich a little bit later Just destroy a team that didn't really belong on the pitch there. So But yeah, you know, unfortunately not too much hope for the US national team after after watching that match So explain to an idiot like me what the difference is between German soccer and English soccer. He said you like the German product more It to explain to me as if I'm very stupid because it's in this context. I am wow. What's the difference there? Yeah, I'm probably gonna get in trouble for this, but here it goes. So British soccer tends to be You know kind of like the most talented athletic guys out there. Yeah, and you know other like kind of continental European this this is probably more for the national teams But like continental European teams like the Germans Italians the French the Spanish tend to play a more Flowing game with a lot more passing That's just the style. I appreciate more You know kind of the epitome of that is Barcelona and the Spanish teams with the so-called tiki-taka Which I mean something to the effect of small passes around the pitch It's a really beautiful style if you watch Dortmund play they play a beautiful flowing style of Soccer, which is just just amazing to watch You know, there's less of that in the Premier League. So I Tend to stay and certainly, you know, not like, you know the the England national team that they don't play like that at all So it's just a matter of style. I mean, I like the the passing and the flow of the game So that's why I will you know continue to you know And like I said, it's not like every match in the Bundesliga is great because sure man I could not watch I had to turn that game off It was it was like just some bad soccer going to my kids was like not a good thing Protecting your children from protecting my shirt. We're really watching but you know, I mean, right So is it like analogous to like watching the San Antonio Spurs play back in the day where they have like the best talent But like it's so technically fun to watch. Yeah, actually, that's a great analogy So you think about the NBA now and like definitely San Antonio But you think the way that the Warriors play a lot of passing a lot of skill Whereas do you think when when I was growing up watching the NBA in the 80s There was a lot more but ball posting up Charles Barkley, but ball but ball. What on earth is that? Oh, you know like guys, I mean there was a lot more post-up play back Okay, we understand stood analytics and just you know the efficiency of corner three-point shots. Yeah You know and you know for a long time like I really like college basketball because you could find teams that like really move The ball a lot of passing beautiful offense that has really come to the NBA because the NBA has adopted analytics and and well They've adopted a better style of play. It's not just analytics So analytics played a role in that they understand the value of the three-point shot and you know a Passing game is a much better way of you know getting those types of shots and it's less about a dominating big man Like it was when I was growing up in the 80s and 90s So yeah, I would I would say like, you know England the English style is a little bit more like the NBA in the 80s and and the continental Europe is more like You know what you see with the Spurs and and the Warriors now well speaking of the NBA We actually have a plan now from the NBA to come back Adrian Wojnarowski was talking about this today where apparently the NBA is going to pass a proposal To begin their season once again on July 31st where each team there'll be 22 teams that go 9 teams, I believe in the East and 13 in the West Slip the details like regardless 22 teams going there and they'll play eight regular season games to finish things up. There could be a a play-in tournament for the eight seed at some point and They're gonna be all in Orlando and Ed. They did not take your single elimination tournament tournament idea I am sad about that, but we have a plan for some sports in the NBA once again at the end of July Yeah, it's gonna be nice to see some NBA. I'm definitely excited about that But just you know, I mean do a single elimination tournament. See you would see how it goes. Yeah, I mean with this plan You're literally talking about the finals ending in October. So when is next season gonna start? Yeah, December I mean you got to give these guys some time off So they were saying like Christmas day might be opening day, which I think would be pretty cool Yeah, no, I mean, I think that that's alright But yeah, but you shorten that season and whatever I'm not saying that I need an 82 game regular season for the NBA Because I don't but you know, can you imagine late July? You have some kind of I don't know Yeah, I mean you could in a couple of weeks you could do a single elimination tournament Be done by the middle of August and then potentially start your season on time in October again Try that out. I bet the ratings would be bananas like we know they are for the NCAA tournament Yeah, I think it would push the NBA to to institute that, you know that mid-season tournament that they've been talking about for a long time I Wonder they're not gonna change the end of the game. Are they? You know like so taking the score and playing to a final score in the fourth I didn't see any like definitive proposals on changing things I saw that they were talking about potentially trying to institute something to actually give teams a home court advantage and Right, like I don't I don't I think I get the incentive to do that because you are talking about playoffs where there shouldn't theory be an Advantage to the higher seats, but like isn't the advantage by itself Getting to face a lower seed like is that not advantage enough? Like I don't I don't want to alter the actual game. I think that might be too far for me at least Right. Yeah. No, I hear you. I hear you on that and the other thing about this problem, right? Like if you're the box who are expected to make the finals, you're gonna be away from home for three months. Yeah What yeah, the October 12th is when they want to wrap things up and like from a from a content perspective the idea of having NFL PGA NASCAR NBA All going baseball all going at the same time September's gonna suck. It's gonna be terrible But it'll be fun to have the sports back but like from a work perspective. Oh my gosh I am already dreading what that will be like. It's good. So we could have the NFL and Then plenty of reason to do a second pod every week true Yeah, exactly. So don't have plenty to talk about that's not gonna be an issue as long as there's not a second wave That quashes everything which hey, hey, I'm not talking about that on this show. I didn't say the the SW word I didn't say it. That was not me. It was some other phantom on the show. We're all good If you want more discussion about broad betting well last week We had Ed Miller on to talk about the bookie co-author of Matthew David out the logic of sports betting would highly recommend that That discussion with Ed everything we discussed on there still relevant. So make sure you check out that discussion with Ed By searching for covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We are an Apple podcast Spotify Stitcher you name it. We are there and if you like what you hear from Austin Ed other Ed whatever it may be Make sure you subscribe and leave us a review as well But we're gonna get to Austin cast and talk about the EPL in just one second first UFC 250 is coming up on June 6th on Saturday And there is no better way to bet the fights than on fan dual sportsbook right now new users can get an Exclusive odds boost when you sign up just join fan dual sportsbook and they will boost Amanda noon as his odds to beat Felicia Spencer From I think it's actually minus 800 or minus seven. I think it is 800 now to plus 250 That means you can bet up to $20 on the favorites to win up to $50 to claim your exclusive odds boost Just sign up for fan dual sportsbook and deposit to see the odds 21 plus and present New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Indiana, West Virginia and Colorado First online wager only except in Colorado must wager in designated offer market $10 minimum first deposit required $50 max bonus gambling problem call 1 800 gambler in Indiana call 1 800 9 with it in West Virginia visit 1 800 gambler net and in Colorado call 1 800 5 2 2 4700 let's bring on Austin cast now you can find him on Twitter at Austin cast a US TAN KAS he is a number fire editor covering the EPL and whole lot of the stuff for the site So make sure you follow Austin on Twitter, but let's pause now to get his thoughts on betting on the EPL Covering the present Let's welcome Austin cast into covering the spread to talk about the English Premier League Austin I know nothing about soccer so I'm going to lean on you here fully So I'm glad that you are here today to educate me. How are you doing? I'm doing really well. How are you guys? Very good. Thank you. Like I said, like I don't nothing So it's it's nice to have you and Ed knows soccer to I guess football I don't know like regardless to educate me because I don't really know what's going on But Austin it's been three months since we've seen in the English Premier League even watching Boondis League recently to kind of get your fix in Yeah, I have yeah Yeah, it's really crazy I was just thinking before I came on that For a lot of the top players at top teams they they're off season of the summer is international soccer So for some of these guys, they probably haven't had three months off of from the sport since they were kids, you know So there's just so many variables like you guys talked about with Alex on the Boondis League a pod that you know people People just don't know how things are gonna go, you know, and that's kind of part of the fun of watching it So I guess we'll see what happens It's gonna be really interesting and I could see there being some rust for sure and it's it's weird to see rust in professional athletes Like watching NASCAR like there have been dudes just like wrecking like for no reason It's been awesome because they just seem human and Tom Brady golfing terribly. It's all human as in which is which is nice So Austin, we had Alex Heinerdahn as you mentioned when the Boondis League Restarted to ask him about Resources that he leans on for betting and things like that. So we got Alex's perspective But what about you? We want to get multiple perspectives when it comes to betting process We can find what works best for us Which sites and metrics do you utilize? How do you decide where you want to go and how do you judge team strength when trying to make bets? I really lean heavily on expected goals, which is a kind of a newer metric that keeps getting better and better every year, but uh Different websites and different models account for different things, but it's basically It's just a better measurement than the final score. It's typically kind of like point differential for nfl but um it's just Kind of accounts for the quantity and quality of shots a team has in a game and tells you how many goals They should have scored and which is not perfect, but sometimes that's a better representation than the final score line so like a really good example of this is a A match from earlier this year Manchester City hosted Tottenham and the final score was two to two But Tottenham had three shots only two on goals. So scored on both of their shots Man City had 30 shots and 10 on goal And the expected the expected goals was 3.0 to 0.2 So city really crushed them But each team got a point, you know, so obviously that's kind of an outlier but Throughout the course of a season soccer is just such a low scoring uh Like a random game a little bit like hockey that you can get some misleading results like that that will maybe make you think A team is better than they actually are and Betting markets are really sharp as you guys know and typically account for a lot of these things, but Sometimes you can find some value By looking at expected goals Yeah, I actually love expected goals, you know, there was a Bayern Munich versus Dortmund Last weekend Bayern won one nothing on the road But it was really a close game and I thought Dortmund actually dominated big parts of it and you look at expected goals It was 0.8 to 0.8 Perfectly even match. So I love that love that you're looking at that Austin when you when you are betting soccer I mean how much of it is the analytics and the expected goals and how much of it is other factors that Are more difficult to quantify when you're looking for bets Yeah, I would say expected goals is a big thing obviously like how the lines are set and how teams are priced Um as a part of it, I could think you know bright and You know, maybe they have a really good shot against Arsenal But then the lines come out and they're not really a big underdog and it's like well, there's a lot of value there um I think kind of a big Something that can be a big value in soccer is that they don't release the starting lineups till an hour before the game and the coaches are like Belichick style about Not leaking any information. So If you can see a starting lineup and maybe A team feels like a really weakened side You're gonna have to get on your computer your app or whatever And very quickly, but sometimes there's a window right there where you can get a team Where they were priced as everyone assumed they were going to play their best and that's not what they feel did But uh, yeah in general, I think expected goals and then Just recent form. I think is really important, you know, whether it's a coaching change Which happens very frequently in soccer not it's a lot different than our sports here They'll they'll sack a coach after three or four weeks if things aren't going well as you know Jay Gruden will get five years or whatever in washington at netball, but um Yeah, I think recent form like players coming back from injury. There's like tangible things you can say Here's why this team's playing better. Maybe but I think you can also look at that and see Which I think we're going to get into arsenal a little bit later But you know, they're a team that has a new manager and it's like it's fourth month And I think there's a narrative that arsenals playing a lot better Things are kind of turning around but if you look at expected goals like that's not really happening at all And so I think sometimes that that narrative is maybe leaked into the betting market For their first match back here But there's also a lot of other variables including the three months off and everything as well, but Yeah, I think if if you can Kind of hone in on how a team is playing recently and if they're doing better Is there a reason why or is it just Kind of a random couple games or what's going on? So would you say when betting on soccer it's important to be around when line-ups come out so you can react to them Is that kind of something you would try to make time to plan around so you can react if there is A major change in the projected lineup and try to get an inefficient line there Absolutely. Yeah, usually the I'm an eastern time where I live so 10 o'clock is when matches start so nine o'clock is when line-ups will come out So Yeah, usually I'll be ready to roll and they'll get the clubs will tweet them out from their official twitter accounts and Yeah, it's really incredible how They'll keep things under wraps really if you know if there's an injury situation You'll kind of know like maybe this star isn't going to play but There'll be times where a guy's healthy and they'll just give him a game off kind of like we'll have it in the NBA, you know, so Um, yeah, sometimes you can pounce on a window right there and you can see odds like Shift pretty drastically in a 15 minute stretch on saturday morning sometimes based off of line-ups Interesting. All right. So the Premier League is slated to return on june 17th Finally have an actual date for that and it's been a three month layoff between matches And you've kind of alluded to this and how there are some unknown there Does that worry you from a betting perspective because it effectively is giving us less information You don't know about the form like you were talking about Does that worry you and make you more hesitant to dive into the markets? Or are you starved enough by this point with three months off where it's just like I who cares? I'm gonna dive in anyway Um Probably a little bit of both. Yeah, you know when I'm thinking rationally, I think You know, maybe I should take it easy here. Let's see how things are going But then the morning out it's like, oh soccer's back like Yeah, I think what What we've seen in the boondest league so far, which is obviously a small sample But kind of the only thing we had to go off of for what teams could look like after a break like this is The home field advantage has been like non-existent really so I think that's something that we could look at and then primarily because there there won't be fans there And primarily primarily actually is going to play some games that haven't finalized everything But they're actually going to play some games at neutral sites as well, which the boondest league isn't doing as far as I know So that could lessen the home field advantage even more so that'll be really interesting when When betting lines come out for future games like how how much is that being factored in because they very quickly have Adjusted for that for boondest league a game. So that'll be something really interesting to watch for Excellent. You talked a little bit about kind of current form Where what do you think about current forms? Are there any teams that were playing particularly well or particularly poorly before the break that you're keeping track of? Yeah, so Manchester United was playing really well before the break they were unbeaten in their last 11 won eight of those games and Their last primarily game before the hiatus was a home 2 of a win on Manchester City a really big win for them and United really have it all to play for they've Got a shot to get in the top four which is something I wouldn't have thought was possible around christmas time So getting in the top four getting in the champions league means more money And then obviously they get to play in the champions league next year, which is a big appeal for players now. So maybe They can attract better players in the offseason or something like that, but They had a new signing in the January transfer window named Bruno Fernandez who has come in and had a huge impact on their team And they were kind of playing short-handed Um when things shut down and they should Have paul pogba and marcus rashford back two of their best players So we're looking at a team who was kind of playing their best Soccer of the season when things got shut down And now they're getting two of their very best players back. So You know, I guess that could go both ways, but If it goes the positive way we could be looking at like a team that's playing as well as anybody in the league here The past or the last nine games if they can keep the form going Interesting and uh, I think it's always good to get good players back So I think that definitely is impactful for sure with them coming out of the break Looking at the larger picture It seems like liverpool pretty much has the league wrapped up and motivation matters. At least, you know in the nfl We're talking week 17 Things suck then like it's really tough to know who cares and who doesn't Does liverpool having that wrapped up impact motivation for other teams in the league or Is there still enough in the line to those top four finishes with stuff like relegation where we can expect most teams To still put forth a regular effort Yeah, I think there's enough on the line for for most teams. Um The system and the way they do things over there with promotion relegation and having top four champions league and then There's actually Europa League after that. It really kind of With the exception of a few teams in the middle of the table Everybody does have something to play before at the end of the year um So I would think liverpool will be an interesting case because they're out of the champions league and they've already Basically wrapped up the Premier League. So they really they won't have anything to play for So it'll be interesting. They could you know place them younger guys and Kind of start building use this almost as like a pre-season into next year, which is going to start basically right after this year But for most teams they should be plenty motivated and have have a A lot to play for here in the final Few weeks. So I don't think that's going to be that big of a deal So one of the best things about european soccer is the idea of relegation the bottom teams get sent down to uh, The next lower league Fanboy doesn't have uh those odds up for relegation yet But uh, give us a sense for what you're thinking about which teams are going to get relegated Yeah, so right now norwich city's in last they're in 20th And they're four points behind astambilla who's played one fewer game So norwich city's probably done I mean and all I could and any any odds you were looking at would have them as the favorite to go down and I wouldn't I wouldn't bet against that at all but The other five teams will be brighton west ham wattford bornmouth and astambilla And I those five will be you know fighting for two spots or fighting to stay out of two spots. Um I think you could make a very easy argument for any of those teams to get relegated um Of that group, I think astambilla and bornmouth that are once most likely to go down and they would probably be priced that way Um, astambilla have allowed 56 goals at most in the league and their expected goal differential is uh minus 25.9, which is the worst in the league So you actually make a pretty strong case for them Uh, not nor which being the worst team in the league norwich is expected goal differentials actually just minus 12.8 So they've been pretty unlucky, but They probably just have too steep a mountain to climb right now to get out um Bornmouth are a really amazing story and they've climbed multiple levels to get to the premier league I've stayed in the premier league, but They may have kind of come to the end of the road. Um The one bright spot for them is they've got steve cook a defender and then uh David brooks one of their key playmakers coming back from injury brooks hasn't played at all this year But last year he looked like one of the best young players in the league So maybe he could be enough to get him out But like I said, I think bornmouth and and astambilla go down But they'll probably be priced that way from a betting perspective I think the west ham would be really enticing they're in 16th right now But they've been really bad by expected goal differential, which has been 18th at minus 20.2 Um They have head-to-head dates with lopford and astambilla two of the other relegation threatened teams Those are two of their last three games So those are just going to be like colossal Extremely nervy games for both of those teams So I think west ham is a team who I'd be willing to put some money on them getting relegated Even if I think it's unlikely because it definitely could happen Yeah, for sure Keep an eye on that for sure. Hey go ahead Hey, awesome. So you did mention that astambilla has the worst, uh, expected goal differential I was wondering do you have those numbers handy and I'd love to see what's at the top of the table in terms of I mean, liverpool is obviously far ahead with man city and lester city after that. Do you have those numbers handy? Yeah, I do. Yep So I for expected goal differential. I usually use Uh, football reference. It's just fb reference because the other football references nfl But they get their expected goals. They use stats bombs expected goal model, which I think is pretty good and Um Yeah, so it's pretty crazy, but at the top of the table expected goal differential pulled per 90 minutes Man City is actually first and shelsey second liverpool's third Wow So, yeah, it it's really interesting You know, it's one of the faults of expected goals, which I probably should have said this early is that it measures like If they give you 0.4 0.4 expected goals on this shot, that's for the average player, you know, so Somebody likely in a messy or most solid for liverpool like they're going to outperform that that number probably consistently So that's maybe a little bit of what's happened to liverpool um And why their their goal differential is kind of their their overall goal differentials plus 28 which is tops in the league But the expected goal differential is only 17.6 um so but betting markets Are obviously factoring these things into account because before the champions league knockout round um liverpool was playing I thought it was Madrid Real Madrid was Real Madrid that was playing man city And man city was actually the favorite in futures markets to win the champions league Even though they had what looked like on paper a tougher matchup And they were About 25 points behind liverpool in the table yet. They were still the favorite and it's something that You know, I think so maybe Outsiders would be really head scratching like how could liverpool not be the favorite? Well As it played out like liverpool actually got knocked out by athletic on Madrid and they're round of 16 match in man city One the first leg and looks like they're going to go through and so yeah Obviously betting markets are taking some of these advanced metrics into account when they when they look at things and Expected goals isn't perfect by any stretch But I do think it's it's a really good way to kind of peek behind the curtain a little bit and see What maybe you know deserved is the right word, but what How teams actually are playing and not just looking at the the final result I think that's a key like I talked about that for an ask car too Like with average running position like you want to know What actually went into it and you don't want to like because when you look at just one number It can be really misleading and I think that Expected goals and stuff like that is going to take in to account a lot of those things up I want to stay on the subject here expected goals because I admittedly know almost nothing about the f a cup And there are f a cup odds up at vandal sportsbook. Can you use some of these metrics? I know it's like comparing apples to oranges at some point But like can you use some of those advanced metrics in trying to predict the f a cup as well? Or is there such a big discrepancy where you kind of have to Make too large of an extrapolation there um Because the f a cup is just a knockout tournament. I think it's probably It's just really random. It's prone to randomness, especially in the early rounds the the bigger clubs may kind of throw out a second team basically because Some of them would view it as Just not as big of a deal as I think the f a cup used to be um And the same goes for lesser teams You know a team like norwood city is still alive in the f a cup But these extra matches that they've been playing throughout the year In f a cup could actually have hindered them in the premier league And I think if you ask their owner coaches players fans, would you rather Get to the f a cup semifinals and play at wimbley or get 17th and stay in the league They would say 17th to stay in the league and I know the owner would for sure. So um Yeah, I think that's something that teams probably struggle with and those smaller teams who don't have the depth on the bench That the bigger teams do. I think that's a real conundrum for them, but Yeah, the the f a cup is just Kind of uh, I would compare it to like the nta tournament where it can be really random the draw matters Uh, because the draw is also random. So you could get um You know two small teams playing in like a round of 16 game and two really big teams on the other side of the bracket. So um I think expected goals and and things like that are stuff you can look for it's a lot harder to find expected goal information for teams Outside of the top flight. So like in the championship, which is what they call their second tier It'd be a lot harder to find reliable expected goals information for a team from that level So that would make it difficult as well Okay, cool. So i'm learning. This is good. I like this very very much now awesome before we let you go There are a couple of games posted up on fan dual sportsbook for the epl coming out of the break Uh, we talked already about arsenal a little bit and astin villa We got man city versus arsenal asset villa against sheffield united Do you see the numbers you like between those two matches right now based on the odds at fan dual sportsbook? Yeah, so man city is Two minus 280 to win at homing and arsenal and by every metric statistic you want to find man city is a lot better than arsenal and for me man city I think might be the best team in the world. Um And they're getting a miracle port back from injury or at least they're expected to and he's A huge piece for them Um with a yeah, like I said, I think they're the best team in the world with them without them Their defense is like a shelve itself and they can lose to Some teams that you wouldn't expect a team of their caliber to lose to but um, we touched on this earlier arsenal Uh, I think the narrative is that their new coach has really impacted things positively and i'm not quite sure that's the same But if you look at the results, they've got just one loss in their last 13 matches across all competitions. That's pretty great But they had a very favorable schedule in that span and they drew At chelsea and at a home win over main united in that time But on the expected goals in the chelsea game, they actually lost by 2.4 expected goals, but they won So it was really a match. They were very fortunate to win um And I think maybe the the narrative with michelle arteta their new coach having an impact and just The three-month layoff and so much uncertainty Maybe Has the market a little tepid to like put city at too high of a number in that game But I would say it should be closer to like 350 or 400 um And like I said, it's at city, which may not really matter much now With with no fans in the stadium, but I would say that's a game I would Love it's never that fun to bet on somebody at minus 280 But I would take man city think all day there and then the other match is sheffield united and I asked him villa. It's it's uh at villa, but Sheffield united's 130 to win plus 130 and I think very similar situation To what we just talked about sheffield united by every metric has been much better than us and villa Both of those teams are promoted teams this year to the premier league Sheffield united's in seventh And have has had an incredible season. It's really great story. And if Lester city hadn't won the league In 2015, I think that kind of like ruined it for teams like Wolverhampton last year sheffield and that this year they're having really remarkable seasons As underdogs, but Like we mentioned earlier Aston Villa's minus 20 they have a 27 Sorry Aston Villa and sheffield united by goal differential expect a golden differential There's 26 goal difference between the two teams by actual goal differential. There's 27 goal difference Yeah, one sheffield united's in seventh in the table Aston Villa's in 19th It seems like sheffield united should probably be like plus 100 or maybe even like a Pushing over that a little bit. Yeah, and maybe there's just Like I said some hesitancy from markets to really put a strong number out there because you don't want to get burnt but I would take sheffield united pretty much all day the only Pesitation I would have is kind of the motivation figure Everything about earlier Just fighting for their lives and every game is going to be huge for them. They basically have 10 like cut finals the rest of the season every game is so big any tie any point They can get could just be the difference between them staying up and going down. So They'll have the motivation, but sheffield united is also fighting For a Europa League spot and they have an outside shot of getting in the top four So they're not exactly going to be going through the motions either so that that That narrative might be a little bit over boned But yeah, I would take the two favorites and the two games coming back like pretty comfortably Yeah, and you were saying minus 280 is not super fun a man city But like in an efficient number is an inefficient number Like if you if it can get you positive expected value take that all day for sure That is austin cast make sure you follow him on twitter at austin cast again He is a number fire editor. You can find his work over at number fire.com Austin I appreciate you swinging by Phone conversation. It's good to for me to learn sports. I know nothing about so I appreciate it and hopefully we can talk to you again soon Yeah, sounds good. Thank you guys for having me on absolutely. Thank you Covering the future One final big thank you to austin cast for swinging by and breaking down the epl find him on twitter at austin cast a U. S. T. A. N. K. A. S. And ed he talked about expected goals and the many think about Discussions we had during the fall Don't you have a model that also backs out an expected score for college football and nfl games too? Yeah, I mean I I do um, yeah, and I don't think that's a direct analogy but I mean I think expected goals is is part of a long trend of Trying to come up with statistics that better capture what happened in the game than just the final score So I would say the earliest example is is fit and baseball. So, you know pitchers have had earned run average for a long time And we used that for decades and then I think it was the 90s and definitely by money ball But it was chronicle of money ball, but but this guy was like well He came up basically with fit, right? We found out that like pitchers have less control than we think about what happens when the bat When the ball leaves a player's bat and lands in the field of play So basically batting average on balls and play was pretty relatively uniform across pitchers and so that meant like what pitchers could really control or walks and strikeouts and So that's how they came up with fielding independent pitching You really look at walk and strikeout rates in order to figure out, you know, how good a picture is and that's still, you know A better metric than then era like if you find a saber nutrition person like writing about era like find someone else right And so so we do, you know, I mean we do this in all kinds of sports and I would say in football You know, the biggest thing is like instead of looking at point scored Like we're looking at success rate of offenses because the work that bill connelly has done is show that success rate is very predictive it's very sticky from early to late season and That is a good thing. I mean that's that's kind of what we want and So I just think expected goals is is it's very similar to that and you know, it's it's basically saying like You know, how many goals should you have scored given a shot from a particular position? And to my understanding like it's it's specific to the type of shot too So more likely to score if you shoot it with your foot Then if you get a header and it considers all things like that. So if you get a header from like Um Far away that's unlikely to score a goal if you shoot it with your foot from the same spot You're more likely to score a goal if you shoot it with your foot from like two feet away from the goal line You're very likely to score a goal Right and that and that's part of what I was saying earlier with the style Like the style in which teams like strive To get these tap in goals. That's kind of like the spanish style the german style When you watch like more epl games, there's more guys like cranking it from outside the box Which is like my least favorite play in the game That's me on fifa Just trying to launch it in there and see what happens I am so bad at fifa that My friend james, he would always play as like Some random country and then I'd play as like the spanish national team in order to try to even it out I would still lose when I would lose by less So that's where I'm coming from here. Yeah, if you're playing with the spanish national team You got it. You got to strive for those tap in goals. That's right. I don't I do not believe me That is uh, that is not happening. But I think the other thing that's yeah That's probably why you lose right because the code knows that those guys don't practice that ever But I also can't get to the goal Like in order to shoot a close shot you have to get there. I'm not getting there. Believe me I'm gonna turn it over before that and so It's a dilemma for sure. But going back to you were talking about fip I think that the fun thing about that is also tracking the evolution of advanced stats like this because Fip was obviously a big breakthrough But now we have things like skill interactive er a which account for home run rate Which is not accounted for in in fip and stuff like that We have All the the baseball savante the the stat cast data that shows us The expected batting average on a base it which can kind of account for things like batting average on balls and play And how much hard contact pitches allow so The evolution of stats is really fascinating and I'm sure that soccer is probably going through a very similar phase right now too. Yep All right, let's move on to covering the future for today and Ed you want to talk some nfl and Talk about I think it's we could call this erin roger's syndrome You want to talk about interception rate and the impact it's having across the nfl as it's been changing throughout the years Yeah, absolutely. I mean, I've always marveled at the efficiency of passing in the nfl Started when I read blindside many many years ago by michael lewis And we know that passing is very efficient in terms of yards per play and and continues to get efficient Um, the rules changed in 1978, uh, which made passing easier So the offensive linemen could now use their hands and defensive backs couldn't touch receivers anywhere on the field anymore And you saw a steady increase in yards per pass attempt, which is a stat that includes negative yards from so that sacks But in the nfl like yards per carry is pretty much been steady since 1978 But when I looked at this a couple years ago That wasn't the most remarkable thing I found the most remarkable thing was the interception rate in the nfl It was five percent in 1978 and is pretty much dropped Kind of linearly since then in 2019, uh, the interception rate in the nfl was 2.3 percent That's remarkably low. So not only is passing getting more efficient despite, you know an evolution of this game But it's getting safer as well So I was kind of wondering whether this held in college as well And it it does so when you look at fps games from 2005 to 2009 the interception rate was 3.24 percent And if you look at the last five years from 2015 to 2019, uh, it's 2.74 percent. So it's a half a percent and You know, it's why why does this matter? Why does this matter when you're betting on games? Well, I think it makes dominant teams less dominant So part of what we know happens in college football was some work that david hale of uspn did and he found that one third of turnovers um happened When it only a third of turnovers happen when a team is ahead on the scoreboard So the vast majority of turnovers happen when a team is behind So and you're more likely to throw picks when you're when you're down on the scoreboard but if Passing is in in general getting safer. I would expect it to actually get safer even when you're behind on the scoreboard Whether that's the scheme or whatever the coaches are doing. Um, that could uh, I think You know, sometimes when you get bigger margins of victory in some of these lopsided games A lot of that's coming from the stronger team getting Interception because the weaker team is down and desperate and trying to throw the ball so That was kind of uh, you know the motivation for doing that the pick rate is certainly declining in college football And it's just one of the many things i'm looking at uh in football as we head into next season And I think that the interception rate discussion is fascinating because It made it might have become almost like overemphasized Interceptions at a certain point because a lot of the discussion that you know smart people like Eric eager have had about erin rogers are that he doesn't challenge enough in short windows or in small windows Leading to a lower interception rates But it also makes things like his overall efficiency be lower because he's not getting as many yards per attempt And are we going to see a swing here potentially where we see quarterbacks Start to open things back up and be more aggressive potentially increasing that interception rate or Do you think this trend will continue where we continue to see quarterbacks just try to cut out picks altogether? Yeah, so a couple of thoughts. Uh, first you should not play to minimize your interception rate Uh, I think that's what kind of dr. Eager is talking about like you Optimize your chance to win the game and you know dumping it off is not is not the way to do that Um, second thought is that are we going to continue to see the pick rate decline? No, because I feel like there's I mean part of what I'm looking for is like the base interception rate Right the interception rate is never going to go to zero and the reason is because that you know No quarterback is perfect at throwing the ball And even if they were perfect like these defenses are good and you're going to get tip passes that fall in the hands Of the other team, even if your quarterback is drew breeze So so part of the thing I'm looking for is like what is like the base? You know like in in perfect conditions you're up in the game like you're not trying to stretch yourself What is the interception rate? You know, it looks like it's about two percent From from stuff I've been doing and that number doesn't actually really seem to change much between college and the pros So, yeah, uh, you know, there's a certain You know, like the overall interception rate probably won't get that low Just because some teams have to be down in games by definition So you're going to have those attempts that like increase your turnover rate, but You know turnovers are a huge part of football. Uh, and I'm just trying to Shed a little bit more light on that as we go into the next season for both NFL and college And obviously interception I would have a big impact in the way you view Teams that are underdogs teams that are favorite things like that So a lot of implications from studying things like interception rates for my cover in the future I want to talk about sunday's nascar race in atlanta because nascar's window is like the one of the few shows in town Just getting close. So let's let's keep on going here while we still can kevin harvick is the favorite He is plus 460 at fandall sportsbook Nobody else is shorter than seven to one and I don't think that's wrong Harvick if you look at my model is in a tier of his own honestly I am at least tempted to go at him despite being plus 460 That's how good he is in my model based on the current form in the track history, but I also think joey legano is interesting at nine to one I have been on him a lot this year, but I'm going back to him once again on sunday Legano is second in my model behind only kevin harvick and despite that There are three other drivers with odds shorter than leganos chase elliott There's like this this second tier of drivers behind harvick who are all above the rest of the fold Where there's another drop off chase elliott is the only other guy in that grouping Who is in that same model as legano? He's seven to one leganos nine to one and if I had to guess why leganos odds are longer The reasoning for that is probably because legano is never won in atlanta But as we know finishes can be really deceptive the cup series goes here just one time per year now So the smaller sample but also finishes are deceptive and legano was really fast in last year's atlanta race He led 22 laps There was a poorly timed caution that really hurt both him and his teammate ryan blaney pinned him a lap down so legano finished 23rd, but His average running position that race was ninth. He had been that That higher better from an average running position perspective in five of the past seven atlanta races So he's been good at this track. He just hasn't won his teammate though Brad keselowski did win that race last year and showed the team had really good speed and a good setup for that track And that's good for legano, but I think the bigger thing is the current form It's obviously really really good for him. He won in las vegas this year another race at a one and a half mile track He has had a top nine average running position in four of the five races since the end of the covet 19 layoff And one of those was a fourth place mark in charlotte another one and a half mile track and a top five average running position means You are in contention to win a race and legano had that at charlotte, which is a sister track to atlanta Legano hasn't been as good at the tracks like fontana and darlington with heavy tire wear, which is what atlanta is So that's a big concerning, but he has still had A top 10 average running position in two of those three races. So he's not been elite, but he hasn't been bad So legano nine to one. I think that number is really good I also do not mind his teammate brad keselowski. He is now 10 to one He actually opened at plus 750. So i'm not sure why he lengthened. He's won two of the past three races He is really good at this track. I'm not sure why he lengthened 10 to one is interested in there William Byron is a longer shot. He's 32 to 1 to win plus 9 50 to finish on the podium I think that's intriguing but of all the bets on the board for atlanta Joey legano at nine to one. I think is the best number I see available ed Uh any nascar viewing for you yet or is it just boondeslake is still? Not yet. Not yet, but I like how you're talking about finding these underlying stats of uh, you know average running position Yep, it's uh, it's a theme in sports predictive sports analytics in general Yeah, I mean it's it's it's basically the same thing as expected goals effectively like it's not One to one, but like we're looking for What a team or a driver actually did rather than what what the finishing score or finishing position was and There's a lot of fluke-ness and where drivers finish and I think that it's really important to make sure you take advantage of that Uh, what do you got going on for this week over at the power inked? Yeah, i'm still cranking away on some long-term projects. So, you know nothing too new But uh, you can always uh sign up for my free email newsletter to uh, you know For all the content that I have and uh predictions once we get back into football season All right, that is uh the powering.com make sure you follow ed on twitter at the power ink as well Check out all those podcasts on the football analytics show. I am at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s We have a ufc 250 dfs podcast already posted on the number fired daily fantasy podcast feed Nascar podcast coming tomorrow at 10 a.m. On thursday, so make sure you subscribe to that one too But also subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast so you can get these Right when they are posted big. Thank you to calvin theobald our video producer for running the video side of things here today Thank you cal as always. Thank you to austin cast our wonderful guests for breaking down the epl educating me about uh everything there is to know about soccer I appreciate that austin and finally, I thank you to everyone for tuning in for today We know it's been uh a rough couple of weeks. So we appreciate you coming here to Take your mind off of things and hopefully um You are safe. You are healthy. Everything is going well for you in your life as well Hopefully you'll be back with us once again next week. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network