 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread? That's right here on the fan dual podcast network in number fire.com today We are talking a wide array of topics with Matthew Holt. He is the president of US integrity We are going to talk about his company new courses being offered at Ohio University the NFL draft UFC betting we're going to cover all the bases of Matthew Holt here in just a bit My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire.com joined here as always by Ed Fang You can find his work over at the power rank dot com Ed happy tax day I guess fake tax day to you. How you doing tax day? I'm doing well. I Don't have my taxes done, but it doesn't Matter My mom and stepdad are accountants. I have not filed my taxes yet It feels very strange to me like I see the date of today and I get very anxious because it's like, oh my gosh I haven't found my taxes, but we don't have to yet. So like everything is disorienting and time doesn't matter anymore I guess yeah, so instead of tax day. We got some snow in Ann Arbor today. That was our present Boy Yeah, no, and you know, I mean just a week ago was 70 and complete spring Yeah, perfect weather and it was snowing today, which is just the glory of weather in Michigan We had 70 degrees on Monday. I opened the windows in the apartment and then it was Thunderstorming and 40 about three hours later and we had snow on the ground this morning to just a little bit a little dusting but Syracuse is erratic. Yeah, and it's hard to predict well Yeah, we got a dusting, but like it was coming down pretty hard. Yeah a couple hours before recording this I guess I don't mind the snow as much when I'm stuck inside because like whatever I can't do anything anyway It doesn't buy I don't clean my car off to go to the gym or anything It's like kind of like whatever I can look at it But I would love to open the windows like if I get outside I'd at least like to give me this one thing this one very small thing Let me air out the stupid place for this been sitting in in you know Still air for the past night eight months now it feels like so let me air out of my apartment That's all I ask not asking a whole lot here Coming up in just a bit. We're gonna talk with Matthew Holt You can find him on Twitter at Matthew Holt USI as mentioned as a president of US integrity And what they do is they monitor integrity and try to make sure there are there's no fraud occurring essentially across, you know, they do it for universities. They do it for Conferences in college athletics and It's really interesting kind of the work that goes into it and everything that it entails We're also gonna talk the NFL draft because they have essentially like an odds comparison site For NFL draft props, which I've found super useful personally ever since you pointed out to me Ed But also talking UFC because I don't know anything about UFC but Ed you're the person who pitched having Matthew on the show and I'm glad you did because He does a lot of stuff and has a pretty interesting background too. Yeah, absolutely I mean I first heard of him when he was on the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference on the gambling panel and he was running the sports book with Cantor Gaming in Nevada Got the chance to get to know him when I was down in Costa Rica for one of SBR's events down there and then he went off about a year and a half ago to run US integrity and has been doing that ever since and yeah, just the you know, I've had him on my podcast He's a great guest very knowledgeable all around And that's what I like about having people who used to like run sports books Is that yeah, they need such a wide array of knowledge that we can pinball 15 different things Matthew's way And he will know how to answer all of them. So I definitely appreciate that You know Chris Andrews John Sheeran same thing. Yeah, so looking forward to talking with him Last go ahead. You can't be just the numbers guy and run a sports book like you have to know many things and Yeah, those guys all have very stressful jobs and I look up to all of them. Yeah, at least a good job Yeah, absolutely Mike Michael Lombardi talks a lot about how analytics aren't just numbers They're also it's just information and I feel like that's super applicable to sports books All information is analytics and I think that's a good mindset to have for stuff like this Last week we had JJ Zachary Sonon talking player props for the 2020 NFL season That was a fun conversation with JJ. He had a couple of unders he wanted to bet So if you want to check those out search recovery in the spread wherever you get your podcast with a baffle podcast Spotify stitcher. We also a Danny Kelly of the ringer on a couple weeks ago to talk about the NFL draft So if you like NFL draft talk and want to hear what he has to say Circle back around and find that one. We had Kevin Cole on to talk NFL free agency So a lot of good guests here recently and John Shearer to talk horse racing too So expanding our horizons here on covering the spread the past couple of weeks with nothing live to talk about today's podcast is brought to you by Fandall racing Fandall is doing its part to continue to bring sports fans excitement by offering users a chance to bet on a horse racing Use your existing Fandall DFS login credentials to gain access to tutorials to learn more about the sport Including understanding how the odds work the various types of bets and most importantly how to win your bets Watch all the races live across over 300 tracks and fill the void left near sports fandom today For more details visit racing.fandall.com or download the Fandall app today Eligibility restrictions apply the John Sheeran episode pertinent for those of you trying out Fandall racing as well And they also have a free to play DFS game around horse racing too, which has been interesting for sure John's info great for that. Let's bring in Matthew Holt now to break down US integrity and talk a wide array of topics and the website for US integrity if you want to check out more US integrity.com. Let's break it all down now with Matthew Holt Covering the present Let's bring in Matthew Holt of US integrity here to covering the spread Matthew first of all Thank you for coming on and know things are a bit crazy right now How are you doing in this wild wild landscape we have going on right now? Yeah, we're hanging in there. We found some creative ways to stay busy. So thanks for having me on what are you been doing to stay busy? I know it's probably a busy time of year for you just from a business perspective anyway But uh, what are you been doing to keep yourself occupied? Well, thankfully we have states like Colorado who, uh, you know have maintained their May 1 launch date So even if there's not a lot to bet on we have operators there They're looking to get launched get through the licensing process And with the integrity mandates that the state of Colorado has in place It's giving us some good integration work to do with the operators there right now And the NFL at least somewhat is still business as usual So, you know, we've kind of refocused our business efforts Toward the NFL right now. Yeah, and it's kind of all you can do at this point Uh, because there's nothing else going on. So let's talk about your company here It's us integrity and it works to monitor the integrity of sports betting in the country and It's obviously there's a lot that goes into that. So what all goes into that process Matthew and What role do processes like that play as sports betting expands in the us? Sure. So it's kind of a three tier process We work with tier one, which is leagues conferences universities teams Tier two being operators And tier three being regulators and we get real real time and archive line movement from the operators as well as anonymized level Real time bet data from the operators We get information from regulators included cooperation, which is always important and an investigative arm And then we cover the leagues as much as we can for abnormalities Whether it's through potential point shaving matchfixing misuse of insider information player and ref safety issues We look for abnormalities within those wagering markets and any correlations within uh to abnormalities within the events Then we can uh, you know, kind of narrow it down to bets placed who may have placed those bets correlations they have is to uh, you know any nefarious activity use the regulators as a resource to find out Who is actually placing the bets we're seeing come across and do investigations there So it's a wide gambit and it includes, you know social media monitoring Underage betting student-athletes betting that shouldn't be people betting that shouldn't be even if it's legal in certain states um, and then player and referee safety, but at the end of the day that the I guess what gets the most popularity is you know, the Matchfixing point shaving misuse of insider information, which is obviously the most prevalent in the u.s So so matthew with your business like we like to think that like all the point shaving things are very rare and and you know Hopefully a small part of your business. Is that is that really true across all sports? Yeah, I do think that point shaving is much more rare But if we look at recent history Let's say the last 25 years of scandals that have actually got not only caught But prosecuted in the united states north western Toledo, San Diego Tim Donahue, Arizona state the one thing we know that that recent history tells us in all those examples Is that the perpetrator in those case wasn't involved in some multi-million dollar scheme? It was an athlete that was getting two three thousand dollars in many cases less I mean adam kawomo in the Toledo situation the running back at 1200 dollars to fumble in the bowl game Northwestern basketball player is getting a thousand dollars You know San Diego university very recently 2014 brandon johnson their all-time leading score and assist man was going to play professional basketball Was getting about three thousand dollars a game So it's not these multi-million dollar schemes that we normally see its student athletes either getting caught up in a jam And needing a few thousand dollars Or professional athletes or officials many times getting extorted into it I think the social media aspect of this is really interesting How can you use social media to help with the services that you offer here? So many ways number one is referee and player safety. It's amazing the amount of threats We saw the macy otig article in espn earlier this year We're baler one by eight on the road, but as an eight and a half point favorite macy otig Mist is a couple of inconsequential free throws at the end of a game He goes on to campus the next day thinking great. I'm a hero We won again kept our underfeated road street going and yet he got hit with all this hate mail on social media Including death threats and he was overwhelmed by what's going on here. We won by eight on the road um So we make sure that in those situations because we work so closely with the fbi and regulators That these death threats aren't coming from someone in the arena right outside the arena Waiting at the players hotel form so that they can avoid conflicts there You know referees the the collegiate folks never Announce and the nca or the conference is who the referees are going to be for any particular college football or college basketball game intentionally Yet this information in the past has leaked due to some you know less than stellar Practices and procedures and then all of a sudden you have people making death threats to officials and Where those officials are going to be leaking ahead of time So we try to help with best practices and procedures to tighten up who has access So where referees are going to be and at the end of the day people just post dumb stuff As far as kids that are underage betting student athletes who shouldn't be betting regardless of their age because they're participation in their sport The student again the safety issue and the number one thing that we end up using social media for is information tracking When was information actually released whether it's from a credentialed inside locker room source or not We have to follow when information on a certain suspension injury ineligibility issue happens So we can kind of get an idea of when a leak may have started when those issues come up So, oh, how you that will be offering some online education programs, uh, and you guys are involved in that What can we expect with these courses? Yeah, I mean, uh, Ohio University. What a partner. I mean at the end of the day, they run the most prestigious sports administration masters program in the country and basically the next wave of sports administrators Athletic directors compliance directors are coming through that Ohio University program And the one thing, you know, one of the people that guest lectured on that bob bowl and the integrity officer from penn state One of his lectures was so sports betting got dumped on your desk. What do you do now? And people forget that these athletic directors and and compliance directors at all these universities Have been told for the entirety entirety of their career Stay away from sports betting sports betting is bad And all of a sudden sports betting is on their desk and they have to understand How does this affect mental health of our players education for our players? What further risks and and vulnerabilities do they suddenly have because sports betting is there? One of our clients the university of pittsburgh directly across from their football stadium is rivers casino What does that mean? Is it a new vulnerability? Is it a new risk? So we want to work directly with all of these sports administrators athletic directors trainers Everyone to let them know what the risks are what the vulnerabilities are One of the best examples is we do lots of presentations to coaches Especially a collegiate football and basketball who for the entirety of their career Used injuries and eligibility issues is sort of a gamesmanship Practice and now we have to tell them that if you're not transparent about injuries and eligibility and Especially if you're misleading about those you're putting your coaching staff your players Your equipment managers and your training staff at a higher risk of vulnerability Because if betters know that you'll never release this information then the odds makers can never get it You just have actually created an underground market for this information and put the remainder of your staff at risk So there's a lot of information we think that these sports administrators. No, it's go at your own pace It's an online certificate program and we're trying to do cle certifications within each state All these attorneys that are suddenly working in the sports betting space We think it's important that they're able to get educated on it and while getting their cle credits done as well I think that this is all really interesting because in past years there has been discussion around Maybe having a like sanctioned injury report for college football and stuff and that hasn't happened yet Do you think with the advancement and legalization of sports betting we could eventually get to that point or is that still kind of a pipe dream? It's a little more of a pipe dream than we may think I know those things have been presented by folks at the nca and the folks at the conference levels before and they get a Lot of pushback from the universities and the legal folks at those universities because they sort of face enhanced HIPAA and other, you know private medical security issues around that You know the HIPAA issues Kind of the waivers that get dealt to professional players are a little bit different in the college ranks in terms of disseminating someone's private medical information without their consent So I think the bigger concern right now. It's not the coaches It's not the participation or engagement or hey Will people think of this as us engaging in sports betting as we do it from what i'm hearing It's more of a legal issue and more of a HIPAA kind of issue than it is with anything else with the collegiate folks I think they want it. I think they know that it's it's beneficial to their programs to have it and eventually I think they'll get there But I think they need to restart restructuring that the the waivers that student athletes signed and the ability to read disseminate people's private medical information You guys offer a lot of services comparing odds for draft props Has this market been different this year compared to the past just because we kind of limited information There's not as many workouts and pro-days and so on and so forth Extremely and I will say this. I mean we've never made any information available to the public before It's always been just strictly to clients operators regulators and teams and this year We decided to make that information available to the entire public because this information has been I mean this market has been so much more volatile this year and it's not just the volatility in the marketplace this year It is massively expanded liquidity because with nothing else going on the amount of people Suddenly trying to take advantage promote engage with and bet on the NFL draft has massively massively expanded So this used to be a very sharp marketplace Information driven people really searching for information trying to stay ahead of it Now you have so much money in this uh in this marketplace that you never did before And I think some of that mark some of that money is triggering some false Kind of positives or false alerts to the sportsbooks who are moving lines off money Not necessarily knowing whether sharp research money info money And then they're having to react later when the info is different. So a lot of volatility in this marketplace this year What has it been like trying to track it given that there are a lot more Markets being offered because like you said, there's nothing else to bet on So like sportsbooks have more times to focus on this has been tough for you to keep up With just so much going on in this sphere this year relative to past years Yeah, and normally look let's face it even though there's similar to the super bowl There's hundreds and hundreds of hundreds of things you could bet on Normally in the last few years and when we started this in Nevada when I was still a canter There would be about 20 markets offered really we're well into the hundreds of markets being offered now We're offering players We're seeing players offered with over under draft positions in the 70s and 80s and in a couple cases in the hundreds That was never the case before you were really taking the top 10 top 15 players players that you were really sure We're going to go in the first round on that Thursday Giving them a draft position and then doing a couple sec versus the fields Alabama over under lsu But now I mean it's just they've offered over under one and a half players in the first round Right. I mean we're getting so narrow now with all of it. It's just absolutely amazing Is there anything that stands out to you as being super attractive in terms of having value? So there's a lot of middles I will say this if you shop around with books There are several players where you can find ranges jk dobbins is one William hill has his draft position at 53 and a half Fan duel and fox bet 44 and a half almost a nine spot middle in between Look at jake from a very popular player in this draft the quarterback coming out of george or william hill 70 and a half is over under draft position draft kings and fox bet 60 and a half a full 10 Lots in between there Where you could take advantage of some wide ranges the one that I think is kind of the most interesting While two may get all of the love from the media and all the talking It's another quarterback where we're seeing the most volatility and that's on jordan love We've seen jordan loves draft position in this nfl draft wagering as low as 11 and a half 12 and a half last week at William hill this week it went all the way to 15 and a half 16 and a half 17 and a half 19 and a half your current over under draft position on jordan love A full seven spots different than he was last week last week jordan love was kind of the cinderella of this draft All of a sudden his popularity went better is just absolutely plummeting and we've seen him drop seven spots And it's not just different markets for jordan love either if you look specifically at vandal I was looking at his market. I think like two weeks ago that the over under was 14 and a half Then a week later was 17 and a half and like you said they are one of the sports books offering the 19 and a half numbers So I think that he's super interesting. Do you have a thought on jordan love? You know, are you leaning a certain way on him or is it just fascinating to track the way this market is gone with him? I think 19 and a half feels about right now You know, obviously we don't really bet here for conflict of interest reasons But I tell you I wish I could have had that 12 and a half now because I think I think there was a lot more love With jor I mean a lot more love for jordan love Excuse the pun right out of the gate then then really the true expert's thought was realistic for where he may go and where he may fit And I think now that we're getting down into more realistic expectations I just think for whatever reasons whether it was the media coverage The comparisons to pat my homes that some people were making with his ability to to move and have a huge arm I think that stuff got overblown early and we saw some really really soft numbers open up on jordan love in the market Quickly hit those numbers and we've seen a massive adjustment. We originally intended to talk to a lot about the ufc event That was going to happen this weekend Unfortunately, that's not going to happen at all But maybe with your knowledge you can give us a little primer for ufc betting things that you look for And for for people that are interested in that Sure, I will start this off where I still don't understand how wwe has been considered an essential business And yet ufc can't put on events where to me it's still two people in a ring with a referee whether they're fake fighting or really fighting but Um, you know, I'll keep that aside for this one. Look, there's some great resources out there And then here's the resource from a gentleman. I don't really even know that well personally We just communicate via social media But does a great job his name is dan tom and if you go on social media He offers all this information on the strengths and weaknesses of a fighter's striking ability grappling ability wrestling takedown defense and while I would never use it holistically as Okay, you know, this is how i'm going to break down a fight. Sometimes it's it's important to understand a fighter's background Especially a fighter that we haven't seen fight a lot So a lot of these fighters come from wrestling backgrounds And all of a sudden they get in the ufc and they have a few fights and they're striking Justin gaichi is a perfect example just all of justin gaichi's wins in the ufc have come by knockout And if you were a novice watching justin gaichi, you would think he's a wild brawler with a You know boxing background or kickboxing background But justin gaichi is a race as a wrestler He was a collegian all-american wrestler So it's interesting to understand that his base is wrestling And that if a wrestler comes in and tries to just take justin gaichi down He does have that skill set to at least use that wrestling Defensively to stand on his feet where he could then use his strength So I think it's important to understand all of the fighter's background their history and their skill sets And how they may be applicable to fights And now what we see so often is fighters are getting away from these massive weight cuts that we used to see We used to see fighters that walk around at 200 210 pounds Cutting down to 170 pounds for a fight And you didn't know how those weight cuts would go or how they would affect the fighters But now with all the usada testing the fact that they can't use IVs to rehydrate We're seeing fighters Make less and less of these weight cuts these big weight cuts and now all of a sudden you have to determine What does that mean to a fighter's style is suddenly his size going to be disadvantageous Moving up in a weight class or fighters like Jose Aldo that continue to move down who used to everyone thought he'd fight at 155 he's all the way down to 135 now Understanding weight cuts and what it's going to mean to that fighter in this particular instance is also very important But at the end of the day, you've got to go back and you got to do a full history of a fighter At least is he improving in these areas? Is he not improving? You know and the one mistake that a lot of people make is looking at a last A fighter's last fight, especially if that fighter is coming off a knockout victory They always go. Oh my god that knockout was so impressive Anytime a fighter is coming off a knockout win There's almost always 30 cents of value lost on that fighter coming off the spectacular knockout win Just because there's an overwhelming response to that one instance So I would look to look to play against fighters coming off spectacular knockout wins Because oftentimes you're already getting overpriced on that fighter because of the last fight That's super interesting and it makes sense to we see this overreaction to recent data in other sports too So it's easy for someone to make that transition from betting other sports to betting UFC in that instance for sure And we're very much a data-driven podcast here, Matthew So are there any resources you recommend for ufc data? And are there any key metrics we should focus on when we're trying to look at the numbers or is that not as applicable to ufc? It depends on the matchup now You have to understand and what I always say especially what I'm betting underdogs in the ufc And then that's what a lot of professional or more advanced ufc or mma Betters like to look for is betting underdogs is if you're going to bet an underdog You have to have that path to victory So if you're looking for a path to victory for a fighter, you have to be able to go back and again dan tom He runs the site. I forget the name of it right now. But if you look at dan tom on twitter Um, he he does some really good job with metrics there. There's fight metrics And and what you want to know is okay So maybe my fighter can't win a kickboxing match here or he's likely to lose a striking battle But does he have the wrestling chops to get this fight to the ground? And if so, does he have the submission capabilities to potentially end the fight if he gets there Same thing with maybe you're going against the jujitsu ace and you say, okay My only shot is to win by knockout But how realistic is it that the fighter embedding can win the fight by knockout can win this fight striking So I think that the metrics are important But unlike other sports, they're not always applicable And especially when you're betting underdogs, I would say what is the the path to victory for the fighter? Embedding is that he can win by knockout. He can win by submission Can he win? Can he win a decision through volume striking or controlling the ground game? So we always look for a path to victory because if there's not a path to victory There's no sense in betting on I think that's uh, very helpful. That is matthew holt Matthew really appreciate the time and covering a wide array of topics here today So really appreciate the swinging by uh, hopefully you can stay safe and stay healthy Hopefully we're talking about actual sports happening again here in the very near future. Thank you Thanks guys best of luck with everything stay health. Uh, stay safe. Stay healthy talk soon Covering the future Once again a big thank you to matthew holt for swinging by and talking about everything essentially Covering all the bases like I said Nice to have people on who have a such a wide array of knowledge find matthew on twitter at matthew holt usi and if you want more information on How usi works again just go to us integrity.com and it's they kind of lay everything out They talk about those social media aspect and all that's really interesting and I thought it was interesting to hear him Talk about the the way you can price shop for quarterbacks because It seems like after tua and burrow there's a lot of uncertainty this year and even I guess now with tua There's uncertainty too, but uh, it's a it's a fascinating market to look at right now. It's the quarterbacks Yeah, absolutely. Uh, some There's been a lot of rumors floating around that jesson herbert's gonna go ahead of tua, which I would have a good laugh at But uh, yeah, jake from is super interesting to me right because you know I was looking at some some mock draft data from the beginning of the college football season And he was considered like a top tennis pick Um, did not have the season he wanted at georgia. Uh, don't know if it was entirely his fault I know they had some issues at receiver. You assume a program like georgia's is just going to Replace the the guys who leave for the nfl with guys that are just as good And that didn't quite work out for jake from this year And you always wonder what his numbers would be like with maybe a better supporting cast So, you know, if you put him at lsu with the receivers they had and put joe burrow at georgia with a disappointing set of receivers Where would their draft position be and I would argue they would be very different and we've seen jake from get it done You know, even as a true freshman Really interested to see where he ends up. I mean, he's clearly, you know in the discussion You know to be drafted, you know, does he end up, you know, does End up like a late pick with like new england. Obviously a team that's that's looking for long term You know getting some guys that could potentially You know be their next long-term quarterback So he's he's a fascinating guy for me. I love jake from I like adore The fact I think that he's just super underrated personally I've written about him a couple times for for number fire I almost talked about him in covering the future today decided to go against it but because they have a draft prop up of jake from versus jake of eason at fandall sportsbook and From's I think like plus 140 now to go ahead of eason um Even though georgia Literally made this decision It's hard to like appeal to authority here because they chose wrong with uh, justin fields, obviously, uh, but jake of eason's not justin fields. I think we can say that pretty definitively Uh, but the thing that I I find super interesting with jake from Is that his schedule was like hideous like sure I know that we talk about joe burrow facing all these like top end defenses, but Assuming that jake from gets drafted He will have had the fourth toughest schedule of any fbs quarterback drafted in any round Since 2010 the guys above him. I think are Uh, I think that jake lockers actually on that list, which is probably not a great example Uh, but like it's the fourth toughest of all time. So when you look at his his 8.1 adjusted yards per attempt Like that's kind of understandable. I mean again joe burrow faced tough schedule to to a tongue of iloa did but we're not comparing him to them In jake of eason's gonna go ahead of jake from even though jake from's worst season by adjusted yards per attempt Was better than jake of eason's even though jake from is a year younger than jake of eason with 15 more gains of experience jake of eason Uh, even though we saw a program literally choose jake from over jake of eason already it's super confusing to me, uh, but I would love to see what jake from could do because I think he's He's a fascinating guy. Okay. The other thing too is I was looking back at past Non first-round quarterbacks who have been successful in the nfl and the list is not very long There have been nine guys who've been the top 10 in in net expected points Since 2000 who've been taken outside the first round nine total quarterbacks in that time and I try to see like their listed strengths and weaknesses coming out of the draft and Seven of those nine quarterbacks had accuracy listed as a strength, which I would list as a strength for from And five of the nine had arm strength listed as a negative That includes tom brady, tony romo and guys like that So I think guys like from get underrated in the draft whereas guys like eason get over Inflated because of the arm strength and I prefer the from type guys Yeah, absolutely. And and um, so first of all from is probably underrated. I didn't have a great season this year But also maybe his height only being six two His hand is small too. Yeah. Yeah And i'm sure eason's kind of your prototypical six six big boy Um, and then just another thing about arm strength, you know, we it doesn't stop when Just after our guy's been drafted. We continue to talk about it. We had all these conversations about drew breeze Last year and whether his arm strength and yada yada yada and and I kind of just disagreed with it I was interesting. I was just looking he did have the lowest a dot Uh, average depth of target of any quarterback In the nfl with, you know, a certain number of attempts last year, but but doesn't matter I mean, he's got the accuracy. He's got michael thomas. I will take that offense any day of the week, right? It's and they're gonna be, you know Presuming that he can perform near the level that he has in the past like they're gonna be a super bowl contender again Yeah, I think the interesting thing with from too is that I always got mad because I felt like georgia wouldn't let him open it up during the season We talked about that a lot actually on the show how bad I was at georgia But he actually had the highest percentage of his throws go 20 plus yards downfield Of any of the top quarterbacks in this draft. He's at 19.5 and jayland hurts is at like 19.3. I think they're basically neck and neck and everyone else is below that So he did try to go deep just wasn't always super successful whether that be Because of him potentially or the receivers it was weird, but I agree that jake from is Really really interesting and one team that has been tied to jake from quite a bit Is green bay packers and your covering the future today is talking about those packers. They were a plentiful Subject of conversation here on the show throughout the fall Which may have led us to believe that we could bet against them this year But it looks like markets may be accounted for that. So what do you see what the packers here at? Yeah, well, I mean, let's go back to the preseason, you know green bay was at nine and a half wins and I think I I definitely leaned or maybe even liked the over On that yet erin rogers coming back first time he was going to be healthy in a long time And I thought they had a promising young secondary with a lot of top draft picks So they go 13-3 clearly go over the nine and a half wins. So I look like a genius, right? No, not at all The pack got extremely lucky last year. They ended up nine in one in one score games Which is just incredible Record in one score games tends to regress to the mean You know very rapidly season to season and even in season So the the record, you know, they weren't a 13 and three team And I think anyone who watched them would would agree with that The defense really struggled, you know, they were 23rd when I look at adjusted success rate You know, they had they had the scheme where they were trying to put a lot of defensive backs out there to stop the pass At the expense of stopping the run and they were terrible trying to stop the run, but they weren't very good You know, they weren't elite at all in past defense only 12th of my adjusted passing success rate You know and erin rogers wasn't great last year, you know an offensive passing success rate. They were 18th So, you know with a 13 win team, you automatically think that their win total is going to be like 10 and a half and just Auto bet, you know under with with what we think this team has But you know a fando sportsbook, they're sitting at nine wins slightly shading the under And when I take those nine wins and the price to go over and under for all teams and I back out a rank and a rating for all teams They end up 11th. So yeah, I think that's about right a little bit better than average Definitely not a super bowl contender in my eyes We'll see what they do in the draft whether they can get Uh writer some more weapons. I think that's what a lot of people are predicting for them in the draft but Yeah, you know markets are tough, right? You know, you think you have this one and and it's just uh, you know One that you're really going to like and Nine wins sounds about right Yeah, I I was expecting to go into this year betting against the Packers because I thought that like you said like 13 wins They're going to be over inflated because of that but like right now they're plus 165 to win the nsc north and That's with nick the nick foals michael trebisky hybrid type thing in chicago With the vikings having crazy salary cap issues and having to shed a lot of guys this all season with the lions being coached by Matt patricia like plus 165 is not Super advantageous as a number, but it's not bad either So I think they're super fascinating. Do you think that you're going to get to a point where maybe you buy into the Packers or Do you think they're more so just being appropriately priced? I think that's what I said all right now is I think they're appropriately priced and not being undervalued But I'm at least monitoring them. I guess is what I'd say. Yeah, for sure. I'm monitoring them too I mean, I'm not high on this team I haven't been since like I saw them play and it's interesting that our expectations are lower Than last season after a 13 win regular season. Yeah, but but I think that's right. Yeah It's really interesting. Uh, they did lose brian belacca the right tackle which Stinks because he's really good. Uh, but They'll be a very interesting team and I think that if they can get some more weapons on offense Maybe I can buy into them But not there yet. Just monitoring as of right now from my cover in the future I want to talk about a team that is hyper relevant for the NFL draft because the Bengals They're picking first and they're gonna pick joe burrow first overall Now the Bengals I wouldn't say quarterback is their biggest need because ad dalton like he's not great, but he's serviceable So the move from dalton to burrow isn't necessarily a huge immediate upgrade for them, but I still like the over on their team win total at five and a half It's minus 105 on the over and I think it's a pretty advantageous number There are a couple reasons for that the first one is that burrow is not the only guy they're adding to this Offense because aj green will be available. He missed all of last year Which gives them aj green tyler boyd and john ross and those are three good receivers With super complementary skill sets you could debate if john ross is good But he serves a role in that offense and that role as we saw at the eagles last year is a valuable one They're also gonna get last year's first round pick jonah williams He missed all last season due to injury. He got hurt in july. I think he was lifting Missed the whole year. He can slot in at left tackle He was believe the 11th overall pick at alabama last year They can get him at left tackle might be able to add a right tackle at pick 33 I think there are some interesting prospects there that should be available around that time. So Potentially adding two new tackles along with aj green and joe burrow. That's awesome. And then there's a defense and They've actually been pretty aggressive in free agency, which never happens with the Bengals. They've They've always been super conservative for this year. They've added dj reader von bell some other potential starters at cornerback so I don't expect the Bengals to be great with burrow just because I don't think the upgrade necessarily there is like huge right now But getting just minus 105 on and over a five and a half is pretty enticing for me. We did talk about the panthers Betting the over on them at five and a half a couple weeks ago And I still like the panthers number more than the Bengals But both the panthers and Bengals I think are good bets to go over On low wind totals here. We talk about betting towards the mean They're both at five and a half and I think there are reasons to like the overs there So I'm going to back the Bengals which feels strange because they were they were a true dumpster fire last year But I think it is the right play here any thoughts for you on the Bengals Well, I kind of I mean, do you think they're going to keep Dalton around to mentor the young quarterback or so? I was listening to uh, the rig rena fell show Kevin Clark was hosting this week. I think with Charles Robinson of yahoo sports and they were talking about how Zach Taylor said this if you're going to have a guy like Andy Dalton in the room any year This is it within abbreviated off season with you know, a lack of organized team activities And they were talking about maybe holding Dalton until Preseason seeing if a team has an injury and has a needed quarterback and then pulling like a sam bradford type thing I Guess I would be surprised if that if it got that far, but we've gotten this far already with no Dalton move So I guess right I it's not as It wouldn't be as big of a shock to me now as it would have been three three weeks ago If he stays yeah, yeah Yeah, I don't know. I think that's interesting. I mean I can really see I don't know. I just I burrow is going to be a rookie. It's such a good situation last year I think there's a notable regression and right and just this performance coming in into nfl um, I mean I I mean, I still think I would lean over with what you're saying, but I would I would just Uh, I would worry about burrow struggling and then if they get rid of Dalton then what are they doing for a back? Right because ryan finley was Not it not it last year that that could be bad Right and and honestly like I mean, I think andy dalton in the patriots system is an interesting idea for me Yeah, you know right now. Jared's did him the last time I checked was still minus 350 In vandal sportsbook to be the starter, which I still just find humorous Yeah, I mean not that it's not going to work out, but um Yeah, andy dalton seems like a Like a fit there. Yeah, I could somehow work I think Like it's weird because sitem's a type of quarterback. I would think you'd use if you were Trying to get trevor lorenz But like every other move they've made this all season goes counter to that like they've resigned veterans. They tagged. Yeah, they're not It's weird and you shouldn't I don't think you should try to go for trevor lorenz when you have that kind of defense Right when you exactly talent in their secondary Or just go get cam newton Well, yeah, go get cam newton. Let's have some fun there. I mean, look, you know, look what that broncos Defense did with with Peyton Manning against cam newton in that super bowl, right? So um Yeah, I mean, yeah, I'm I'm kind of high on new england So just very close to monitoring what they're going to do at the quarterback position I grew up a jet fan. So I've never rooted in my life for the patriots But if they signed cam newton, that'll be the closest I would get to rooting for them I'm just a bill bell and check if you want my fandom. I'm sure it's super high on your priority list Go sign cam and we can talk Well, the jets were the biggest mover in fan dual sports book on wind totals. They moved up They moved up a whole two tenths of a point and my new Freshest market rankings. So So there's steam on the over on the jets Little bit. Ah Interesting Not sure why though. All right. Um, I'm not sure why either. I mean, uh I you know, there wasn't a there. There were you know, I would say 28 teams That the price on over and under did not move at all Yeah, and the jets were one of a few teams interesting Calvin Theobalds now our video producers yelling at me because he's also a jets fan Um, he's saying it's blasphemous for you to say I back the patriots You're right cow. However, I like cam and that takes priority Let's move into quarantine corner for this week Ed, what have you been doing to occupy your time in these strange strange strange times that we are in My man ryan george. He's a comedian. He does the pitch meetings on a screen rant I've raved about him before on the show but he did uh, he does something called the 90s show where He uh, he's a reporter from the 90s and he's in 2020 and just like all the crazy things About what you see it saying and it was um, I don't know. I mean it's hard to laugh at our situation right now But that's the hardest. I've I've laughed at it. Uh, it was so good. Um, so yeah Go check that out his most recent one on the 90s show Uh, and then just just binge all the rest of his his stuff. It's all really funny on his own private channel Didn't you have a t-shirt of his too? What's that? Didn't you have a t-shirt of his as well? I do What is a brand name expensive brand name t-shirt? Yeah uh, so what's like the the The angle I guess this this youtube channel again Uh, it's just comedy. I mean most of it is him talking to himself Which is is kind of funny because he can just write the script and just do it Which and he's just hilarious. It's just uh the angle. I don't know. It's just I guess I don't know if that's the right way to phrase that but uh, yeah, it's just short comedy sketches With him talking to himself. Oh, all right. I like it. That's all to check that ryan george For that now for mine. We've been doing a lot of documentaries recently Um, we obviously talked briefly about tiger king here Because it's obligatory because we are we are humans who speak and it means we are supposed to talk about tiger king But I actually liked mcmillions more that was an hbo documentary they did about the mcdonald's Um, uh monopoly scandal which happened back in I think the early 2000s Basically, I think there was like this super long new yorker article about it like a year or so ago Which I had read and it was like this fascinating story about how this marketing agency had basically Gotten hacked by this dude who was like the head of security and who stole like a bunch of game pieces from monopoly And gave him to his friends and they'd cash him in for like these million dollar prizes and didn't get caught for like 12 years so this documentary goes to the background of this entire story Talks about how the scheme was done. It has interviews at the fbi conducted at the time talks about the fbi investigation and It was a really fun story. It has mob ties in it. It has uh theft It has intrigue. It has family drama. It has kind of everything that you want and like I liked it more than tiger king personally. I don't know It was they had like interesting personalities in it. Um, do you remember that story yet? I do not Okay, I didn't I do I was young when it happened So like I I didn't remember but I read this this article about it And it was like so fascinating that I saw an hbo had a documentary about it And I was like let's rev it up man. This sounds awesome and it lived up to it too It was just one documentary It was a six episode documentary. Okay on hbo It's called mcmillions. Actually, I think it's it's available if you have a hulu account now We we watched them. We have hbo go. We watched it on hulu and I I liked it like I like I am prone to like documentaries a lot Uh, we are trying to watch one about pandemics which got really scary and depressing real quick. Uh, so we stopped that one Uh, but mcmillions is you know, it's it's pretty light. It's refreshing. It's fun. I'd recommend it Yeah, that's awesome and speaking of documentaries. I was watching the trailer to the the michael jordan uh 1990s uh 1998 season, I think So espn apparently they allowed a camera crew to uh Follow them for that last year. So that was that was their six of six titles And part of me is like how the hell have you been sitting on this footage for right 22? Yeah 22 years Why hasn't the world seen that? Yeah And I think in this age where we're not getting any live sports. That's going to be a pretty big deal when espn starts dropping those Absolutely, I think that's sunday, right? I don't know. Um, I think it's I think it's this weekend. Um But I have all the dvds of like the early 30 for 30s and i'm gonna start ripping through those Again pretty soon. Those are fun 30s 30s are so good. Yeah So I can't you get them all on espn plus. I think you can Yeah, uh, there's actually they've actually been doing a lot of interesting stuff recently Like nick sabin did a breakdown of like joe burrow into a tongue of aloha, which I need to check out at some point. So Um a lot of interesting stuff and like if you are a documentary fan It's a good time. It's a good time to be considering media for sure That is all that we have for today here on covering the spread big Thank you once again to mathew holt for swinging by and talking about everything We decided to pepper him on and make sure you check out the site once again us integrity.com and find mathew on twitter at mathew holt us I add what is going on for you? I saw you had an interview with interview with jonathan bales up on the ball analytics show That's cool. Yeah, I know it was awesome. Talk to bales about uh, how he Never did any specific training to do 2400 push-ups in 12 hours We talked about a lot of his counterintuitive Counterintuitive tips for entrepreneurship. I really respect kind of his story and how he's tried a lot of different things and Finally made it in the the dfs world And uh, we talked some sports and dfs and why that's still a good good idea to get into these days Uh, I think bales is fascinating. So so definitely check that out on the football analytics show I have my nfl pre draft market rankings that I was telling you a little bit about with green bay earlier in the show You can get that if you sign up for my free email newsletter. Just go to the power rank dot com slash predictions um, and then finally I just wanted you were talking about uh, espn plus And uh, you just want to mention like you can get espn plus if you sign up for disney plus like the Like the the enhanced version. So like I can't the package of that with hulu. I think too Yeah, exactly. So like I canceled my like my one espn plus account Canceled my hulu account and then ended up saving a bulk a month Yeah, signing up for disney plus and then still getting espn plus and and hulu which I watch a lot of Yes, so it's a pretty good deal. I think it's like 12 or 13 bucks a month or something I didn't see that deal before I signed up for disney plus. Uh, so i'm paying for everything right now and uh, Once these contracts run up, I will Wise enough they run they run out every month jim I think I know I signed uh, they they had a discount if you locked in for a year and I did that Oh, okay, like it was like 10 bucks off or something like that. Oh, yeah, sure. I'll pay the full thing now and just get over with What could go wrong? Whoops Pretty co-host yeah about a deal. Yeah, exactly learning learning learning learning I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s We have league of legends daily fantasy podcast now going on the daily fantasy Uh podcast feed with myself brandon gaduola and tom vecchio. I preside provide no insights I'm just there asking questions Because I know nothing about legal legends But they do make sure to check that out on the dfs side of things uh for the finals coming up this weekend Big thank you to calvin theobald our video producer and resident jets fan better jets fan than I Apparently uh for running the video side of thing here today. Thank you cal as always and thank you to everyone For tuning in hopefully Your bets go well if you decide to find markets you enjoy we back again Next week to talk more with you. Uh, but until then stay safe. Stay healthy. We'll talk to you again soon This has been covering the spread right here on the fan duel podcast network