 Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody, and welcome to another edition of TheAxisTrader.com. Weekend update, shall hope everybody is doing well. If you are brand new to the channel, guys, welcome aboard. Thank you very much for tuning in. All we ask is take a second to like the broadcast, share, subscribe, and we will try to continue to provide the most unbiased technical outlook that we possibly can. You guys remember last Friday, the previous Friday, the big story was Moody's downgraded the outlook of the United States? Yeah, me either. Right, me either. That really shows you how good this market has been. That was a little bit of a blip in the radar or a fly on the elephants behind, but it really does show you how incredible the run in the last three weeks have been. The euphoria continues, right? Euphoria definitely continues. There's always been periods of the markets going throughout the years. I don't want to go through a whole history lesson now, but you'll see euphoric periods and the euphoric periods always end because the market, again, is never as good as you think and it's never as bad as you think. So there's no difference, right? If you think about it from the logical point of view, there's no difference in what happened a month ago or two months ago when the market basically went straight down. And the queues went from 373 all the way down to 342, right? The market was never as bad as people thought because what happened? The sellers got tired and then we rallied up 45 points on the queues. So the market's never as good, never as bad, especially if you are an active trader and you're doing this on a day-to-day. Again, if you are a long-term investor, my channel probably does nothing for you because we talk about the next day and we're not here to try to predict what's going to happen before that. Well, I'll pass that, excuse me. But what we're seeing is continuation of really good, maybe holiday vibes. Okay, we've got Thanksgiving coming up next Thursday. It's a short week. You're probably going to start seeing a little bit of a slowdown in volume somewhere around Tuesday just because it's always the busiest holiday travel time because a lot of people will be traveling that time. But honestly, market's good. Market's very good. Friday we have half a day and obviously Thursday we close. About three, four days ago, I started getting a little bit more defensive, basically saying that I felt like a 45-point move on the queues was kind of a lot. And I've been kind of looking, I've been sitting there and watching for a potential reverse. Obviously, I'm not guessing. I'm not putting bets to anticipate a reverse. But I'm watching every single day for that possible reversal. And I tell you, we just continuously put in higher lows on this range here, which is amazing. If you see this whole move here, it was all on higher lows. The one day that the market could have reversed, never followed through, right? Never followed through the one higher. And now we're just sitting on this channel here. It's very, very tight. Now, here's where the big part comes in. And when I mean good, it doesn't mean bullish or bearish. It just means good from the trading aspect. The longer we go sideways, right? The longer we go sideways here, the bigger the more aggressive the next move is going to come. And for us, I trade both sides of the market. It doesn't make a difference to me long, short or indifferent because the value is the value. The channels are the channels. And the mega cap technology names are the only names you could literally trade every single day, no matter how good or bad a Tesla chart is. And we'll get to that in a second, right? You could still trade it every day because there's a big expansion day. Whether it's down in the day, up in the day, it'll give you a bounce level, give you rejection levels. It'll give you sneaky pivots to the upside, sneaky pivots to the downside. So that's where the majority of these 10 to 12 stocks that I trade every single day are. Not every single day, I trade every single one of them, but you kind of get the idea. And the most important part is what happens next. So we're pretty much done with earning season for technology mega cap cult names, right? The last one that is going to be reporting is NVIDIA on Monday, right? That's on Monday. Excuse me, on Tuesday. I'm sorry, the 21st, right? The 21st, that's the last one. Everything else is kind of sprinkled in stocks or companies that I really don't follow, don't even trade. But this is the last one, okay? If you look at the options market, the betters in this stock, despite 110 point run up from the lows, and the lows were only October 31st. So we're talking about 18 days ago, 17 days ago for as of yesterday's close. So in three weeks, right? Three weeks, NVIDIA ran up 110 points. There are people still betting for the weekly, okay? For the weekly, this week's coming up 525, 535 calls, right? This is after 110 point run up. Is it possible NVIDIA destroys their number and continues to go higher? Absolutely. However, there's a flip side to that as well. The conversation as always is, well, is this move a direct reflection of potentially the run up is already tied into this move? We don't know, right? We don't know. And if anybody can sit here and speculate and guess what's going to happen, you're delusional, right? You're absolutely delusional of how you think the stock is going to react. I've been saying this for years. This is what goes into earnings. You can literally have the report. Listen, I can literally sit here and have the report in my hand. Read it and know exactly what's going to happen. And you still don't know how the market is going to react to the price action after its release. You still don't know what the stock is going to do after the conference call. It could gap up initially and then sell off later. It could get hit initially and then rally later based on comments. So earnings are one big guessing game. And despite that everybody has an opinion, remember, there's only one shot at price action. We're going to find out exactly what that is on Tuesday. Obviously, the big numbers continue to be on NVIDIA, the August highs and the bottom here channel. And you see how tight it's getting? The bottom channel is here to play as well. Because again, if NVIDIA does miss or it's at least deemed to be priced into their quarter, then this could be a potentially two-sided aggressive move. Because remember, the rest of the market is just waiting for NVIDIA. Just think about it, this is why we're going sideways now for the last four or five days. This is going to be day five on Monday. We're just going sideways right now. We're holding the five-day moving average. And that five-day moving average, guys, write down this number. This is going to be a big, big number in case the market finally gasses out. Again, we don't know if it will every single day. I'm prepared for a washout and it just never comps. But I'm prepared. I know the levels and that's the most important part. Don't go into any single trading. Then you say, forget about what that idiot is saying. The market's going to go up again today. Yeah, because you want it to go up again. Doesn't mean it will. Just the same way you were hiding underneath your bed, screaming, mommy, please help me. Mommy, please help me when the market looked like it was about to implode into the 200-day moving average. Again, buyers get tired. That's what we might be seeing here. Sellers got tired on the October 26th lows. So don't be arrogant. I'm doing this for nearly 25 years. Don't be arrogant to think the market on a dime can turn and wipe away a month, three weeks, two weeks of all your profits on one candle. I'm not saying on one trade, on one candle, on one interval. So be very, very humble. Really understand the levels. And that lesson and that level for a potential, at least the initial aggressive back test, could be this 383 level. Guys, write this down. The queues are sitting for four days in a row. Monday will be five. So that's a full week of trading. This 383 correlates with the rising five-day support. We've been talking about this five-day support now since this whole market rally. Again, if you can see every single time it hits this orange line, it balances. It balances. It balances. It balances. It balances. It balances. It balances, right? So that's the point. The lower it sits sideways and it doesn't go up. If there is a potential back test, if NVIDIA decides to kind of miss on their quarter or the reaction is negative, guys, watch this 383 level. They held 383 on November the 14th. They held 383 on November the 16th. And they held 384 on Friday. So that 383 level is the line in the sand, at least for a short-term potential back test to kind of reset prices. Nobody's calling for a top. We're just calling for a potential if you are prepared, right? I'm telling you what the number is. If you are prepared that 383 level is going to be the line in the sand. But again, the longer we go sideways and the market can't replace, excuse me, reject the potential sell-off, then eventually we'll start moving high. We'll see. We'll see about that. If you look at all the names, again, market continues to shine, right? Amazon, despite two days of selling, kind of reclaimed back the five- to ten-day moving average looks absolutely great. We saw 147, 150 calls coming in. A name, for example, like Apple just continues to be chugging along. Microsoft had a little bit of a run-in on Friday. It got pulled in the day, in the middle of the day. And then you saw the news. I think the CEO of, what was I kind of doing? The CEO of, was it open? I'm not into this whole open AI. That's it. I just looked at it right now. A CEO of open AI, I guess his name was Altman. I guess he was asked it from his position and considering that Microsoft is the biggest shareholder of that, they took a hit. And after the close, they're getting hit as well. One of the biggest stories and what this market continues to do is the data we saw this week. We saw the CPI data come out, the PPI data come out. And it really is showing that there's a strong sign now, really a strong sign that they're potentially, I don't want to use the word they're taming inflation, but at least there's a reason, there's a rationale behind it. They potentially, what the data is telling is they potentially could start cutting rates as early as March. Or may I remember them saying, so that's a very big key. As you can imagine, bank stocks got a really big boost on this news. You can see JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Citibank, Bank of America all having big, big runs. Also a big deal, kind of a big deal this week. We saw kind of what Elon Musk did, which was a little bit staggering, which is very odd, especially from his point of view. So if you guys follow this, and I couldn't figure out what was going on. So Thursday night, I was long. We caught this really nice move on Thursday. So I was long Tesla overnight. As you guys saw the headlines came in on Thursday session, and that Elon Musk apparently promoted an anti-Semitic tweet. As you can imagine the stock got killed. So yada, yada, yada. I wound up on Thursday session, Wednesday was the big run up on Tesla. So I came in long Tesla, had a pretty big move on Tesla. And then because of that tweet, there was obviously a negative reaction. And I basically gave back 70% of my gains from the day before on Tesla, which was fine because on Friday we got it back on a short, a really, really aggressive short at the open here. We caught this beautiful, beautiful short on the previous day's range on Tesla. But because of this, I guess, anti-Semitic promotion of a tweet. Well, you got a lot of big advertisers either stopped or pausing doing business on Twitter. You saw Apple, you saw Apple, you saw Disney, you saw IBM. And then you go, we'll see, we'll see exactly what happens. And over, I think yesterday, I think their spaceship, right? I think their spaceship got destroyed or sculpting in midair. I think it was something in midair. So it's going to be very, very interesting to see what happens with Tesla this week. And ironically, as much as Tesla came back in on this tweet, it reclaimed back a lot of levels. And now we're kind of stuck in this range here. So I definitely want to see which way Tesla breaks this week. So going into this week, guys, again, the same game plan. The same game plan goes. The market's going sideways right now. The rangers are contracting. That's a good thing. I don't care if you're a bull or bear or indifferent. That's a good thing. The longer something goes sideways, the higher probability the next move is going to be an explosion or an implosion. We just have to understand which way the market's going to break. So we already know the bottom channel here is 383, right? The bulls need to defend. And the upper channel here is 38775 that the bulls need to reclaim. Other than that, you can continue. And this is kind of what we've been doing the whole week. Even though I'm prepared for back this, all we've been doing is buying dips, literally buying dips in the strongest stocks into rising 60 minutes support. And if you look at the charts, they're holding really, really well. That theme is going to be continued at least the start of the week. Obviously, NVIDIA is going to give us a whole lot of clarity of what happens next. I do assume, I have to believe, I do assume that once NVIDIA comes out with earnings because the semiconductors and they've been on just on fire, right? The semiconductors are predominantly the stronghold on the Nasdaq 100 along with biotech names. We will get a very, very aggressive move one way or another, either below the 383 on the Qs or above 388. Other than that, guys, again, stay away from the overextended names. The overextended names, they're up 12, 15, 20 days in a row. They're the toughest names because if there is a pull in the market, they're going to be the ones who get taken down first. And you can see what happened with Microsoft. When these things turn, they get very aggressively. So let me give you guys some ideas for Monday. Let me give you guys a couple ideas. Look at Coinbase, right? Bitcoin has been very, very strong. If you guys remember the last time we talked about Coinbase, it was this October base, right? And once it got about October base, it exploded. All this base is now playing out again. You're talking about now in two weeks of a new base, Bitcoin continues to look pretty good. And obviously, this is one way to play Bitcoin the whole thing. So Coinbase, watch the top of the channel here. If it starts building above this top of the channel here, maybe finally wakes up this week. Look at a name like FSOLine, right? A smaller name, but look at this base here. It has a really, really tight base underneath supply. First close above the 50-day moving average. All it needs to do now is get above this 100-day EMA. And this thing looks really, really good. Keep an eye on that. Let me see what else I want to talk about. Amazon looks great. Amazon continues to look great. Obviously, Black Friday is around the corner. And speaking of retail, speaking of retail, Target, right? Target had a really, really good quarter, right? Which is surprising because if you look at what the stock has been doing, this is a monthly view. This is from 2021. I mean, this has been on a death spiral. So considering that Target had a really good quarter, maybe there is an uptake of optimism that the retail cost consumer is back. We'll see. And that's why Amazon is writing as well. Also, watch Target. Watch Target after its earnings gap. It's kind of going sideways as well. Keep an eye on Target for this week as well if it starts taking out the earnings highs as well. Other than that, again, it's all about Nvidia. It's all about to see how the market continues to deflect bad news. So far, again, the market has done its job. Negated completely. The Moody's downgrade has really embraced both the CPI and the PPI data that we saw this week. We had some more data on Friday. I think it was jobless. Who the hell knows? You can't remember anymore. But the point is it does show, at least from the recent data, that inflation is being tamed. And maybe there is going to be some sort of rate cut in our foreseeable futures. Guys, have a great night. God bless. Have a great weekend. Right now, it's about a little bit before 11 o'clock in the morning on Saturday. So you guys will probably get the video sometime either Sunday or it's either Saturday afternoon, Saturday early evening, or Sunday morning. Guys, God bless. Have an amazing, amazing trading week. Have a great weekend. And God as well. I'll see you guys all Monday. Take care.