 Okay, very good morning and a very merry Christmas. It's 20th of December Friday Briefing for this morning Not really too much for me to talk about to be honest from a news perspective This is quite typical for this time of year things are pretty quiet So a little bit of a review of the stock market movement record all-time high again yesterday And so Trump certainly delivering that Christmas cheer and the usual seasonal kind of Santa Claus rally But yesterday the Dow finished up 137 odd points and just having a look at the the graphic to the side of me at the moment This is looking at the kind of ball run of the US equity market specifically the S&P 500 looking at the annual price gain and as you can see 2019 despite the big macro risks that have always been Present dangers if you like for markets like the escalation of the trade war Significant risks of a global slowdown the inversion of the yield curve that we had which has obviously taken a steep Reversal since we saw that in around August September time 2019 equity performance wise, you know, we're clocking Over 25 percent up to around 28 percent on the year and actually if you look back over the course of Really the last ten years. That's the second best performing performance that the S&P's put in almost the worst It gets the more we think Central banks are gonna reverse course for the first time in best part really of a decade since the depths of the financial crisis and Kind of reversal and looking at the year as a whole with the Fed Doing three rate cuts, you know, if you think about the RBA The RBNZ all doing the same to the same degree renewed now quantitative easing in Europe and the ECB and Of course Trump looking to get this last-minute phase one deal over the line Getting a good seasonal timing, of course For a stock market rally into year-end. So yeah, I just wanted to put it into a bit of context. Obviously a A Stark difference from where we were this time last year if you remember December was an absolute bloodbath Epitomized by literally Christmas and boxing day. I think as when we hit that inevitable low Which then was counteracted obviously by the biggest rally we've had in the best part of three decades at the beginning of 2019 So yeah, so different from this time last year But looking at the charts this morning as I said At the moment things pretty quiet. I mean if I look at the S&P 500, it's just come off a touch and Pretty sideways during the Asia-Pacific session. This is the center right chart and don't really think it's too Surprising given the rally and push higher that we had yesterday and so, you know global index futures pretty flat overall the DAX basically unchanged Also same in the Euro stocks despite a little bit of fluctuation as per normal at the cash open a short while ago Gold pretty sideways just hugging pivot similar to the US 10 year both are down slightly Just given some of this the general Correlations with the equity market being relatively firm at these levels gold down about two and a half bucks the 10 year Down about seven at the moment does come as well with you know yields being at levels We haven't seen for multiple months So finishing the year and a very different perspective about people's fears about the near-term Comparative to where we were at the end of the summer for sure But with that, I'm not going to talk too much broad brush about the outlook because peers and I peers If anyone doesn't know is our amplifiers ahead of trading He and I are going to do our outlook for 2020 at 3 p.m. London time this afternoon We will record that session as well make it available thereafter But we're going to talk probably for about 45 minutes or so over some of the key themes like The outcome for Brexit and its implications of the pound can we sustain a continued move higher in US equities? Can OPEC continue to underline support for crude oil prices with their production cuts? And can the ECB and new president Christine Lagarde Mitigate the ongoing downturn being experienced in the eurozone so there are four factors We're going to discuss and I'm going to put peers on the spot get some year-end calls And what he thinks the catalyst will be and the real pivot points of macro and price action Over next year, so so that'll be later on this afternoon, but as I said overall this morning things fairly muted Thing that has been obviously in the press Boris Johnson Just going in to the Christmas period. He's obviously trying to rush everything through in order to Wrap Brexit up for Christmas is what he said yesterday almost like a Trumpism if you like and He what the process he needs to go through is the bill his Brexit bill, which we know has been kind of strengthened on the kind of the idea of Non-agreement to transition for an extended period Looking to put a bit of pressure on from the negotiation with getting a European deal sooner the better But this obviously creeps in then the renewed risk of a no deal Brexit And that's what we've been seeing influencing the the British pound So what's happening today is it's the first vote in the House of Commons looking to push through that legislation Obviously to execute and that delivery of the the initial exit on the 31st of January That being the exit when I say exit. I mean the article 50 is going to implementation The vote is going to happen around 230 London time this afternoon, but likely to be a Formality of sorts given now the 80 majority that he's managed to capture from the the recent UK election The legislation then will be set to go through various stages of progress that the way the UK system works That's going to recommence them in January on the 7th 8th and 9th So I wouldn't be looking for any type of market reaction to be honest from what we'll see this afternoon It should go through all of the MPs of which have now In the Conservative Party have seats within the lower House of Commons have all said they would back the deal So no real issues foreseen then And then no real issues either really foreseen for when it comes back to the the various stages of approval the real Problems if he's going to a counter happen thereafter, of course now just having a look quickly at the Sterling chart here. Let me put it back on it on a 60 minute candlestick Just wanted to bring in some of the price action that we've had of course This time last week I was quite tired because we've been up all night delivering the UK election of course and and yeah, we are Lower now than where we were before the the gap up obviously on the back of the Tory majority So all of that and some has been taken back and we trade really now a round 130 50 So a decent kind of four and a half points off where we were on those initial peak that was seen when some of those northern heartlands For labor turned blue And we hit that kind of 135 50 So yeah, the best point of the best part of about five point move there that we've had in Sterling on a bigger picture This is just looking at cable on a much bigger time frame And looking at some of the what if I put it like that first to give you a bit of context This is a trend line from 2014 2018 20 and and well we've had in 2019 with the the gap up and break through then of What was the the election? We've come back down to that trend line came up and tested it Only a few days ago before then coming back down to a fairly significant at least near-term level of support so Whether or not the price has the appetite at this time of year to really break through that or not is really yet to be Seen but you can see that was the the area of resistance in mid-October But any move further down as a couple of interesting points probably to keep an eye on that double top That was really the 18th of November so month on from that area of resistance and support that we're trading out at the moment That's really the 130 handle as well And then that opens up a slightly more deeper move if that were to happen Which would be a push down to around 120 833 so obviously this isn't going to happen today or in fact probably for the rest of 2019, but this is if this Situation continues to develop as it has been we had things like UK retail Sales of course yesterday, which was particularly disappointing So as the economic slowdown continues in addition really until we get to February-March when then it's like we revisit the situation has he got a deal or not? And what are the prospects of that happening? He's probably gonna remain steadfast for as long as he can To keep that narrative ticking along and the more that happens and the lack of progression that I'm anticipating will happen The more downside pressure we're gonna get and the more we move back down again And these would be the subsequent targets then thereafter 128 33 and 126 30 and so on Until the inevitable extension comes Which I'm still think is going to happen the other thing over that time period of course That you're gonna have to be aware of is Mark Carney. Obviously Boris has 31st of Jan very much as his date to deliver as he would call it delivering Brexit and Mark Carney leaves and obviously this is quite a significant change because he's he's rolled over his term multiple times and so you know markets like continuity and Would he or his departure spell any type of danger for markets? But the answer to that is Probably not because the FT have leaked it and it seems that this is just going to be ratified later on today Probably by either the Chancellor or the Treasury normally But Andrew Bailey this chap here on my screen The head of the Financial Conduct Authority has been selected as a new governor of the Bank of England According to the Financial Times last night Now a couple things here Mr. Bailey does have a little bit of a sketchy past in terms of his performance Related to a series of financial scandals in recent years and questions about the effectiveness of the FCA and his oversight However, he is also a former deputy governor of the Bank of England So he's definitely equipped in a sense of he knows the routine market Practitioners are very familiar with him and you know, he's even though he's had let's say a number of mistakes in terms of his time at the FCA He's now leaving that and now he's focusing on monetary policy and when he was a deputy governor. I can't remember in my mind or recall anytime where he Said anything out of turn made any particular large mistakes When he was acting as a deputy so as far as I would see his appointment. I'd say this is kind of the The conservative pick there was obviously a lot of pressure on the Bank of England to potentially pick a woman For the first time in its entire history, which goes back multiple hundreds of years they've decided to just basically go for the the recycle of the usual type of suspect and So for markets, I would say this is probably a good thing in a sense of it's not going to be a disruptive factor For the pound in that transitional period at the end of January into February. I would say Looking at the calendar. What is there to come? There is UK GDP and I've not really touched upon that much because these are final readings and remember We're about to turn into January of 2020 these are GDP readings for Q3 of this year So it's three months out of date now and markets are very much where do we go from here? What we really need to know is it's that that kind of end of Q1 growth Forecasting and performance is what's going to be really key. I think so looking at GDP for Q3 I wouldn't really look for much in the way of reaction or over interpretation of that data today Certainly from any policy implication That's expected to remain unrevised. It's a final reading so 0.3 percent on a quarter one percent on the year-on-year And then for the US we get the same US GDP Expected to be unrevised at 2.1 percent So you remember a little bit of an upside surprise in the preliminary figure keeping US growth fairly constant around that 2% level surprisingly a little string of Stronger than expected economic surprises from the data sets that we've had from America Of late epitomized by non-farm payrolls has managed to secure then a fairly decent performance for growth despite people getting Very pessimistic about the gross conditions there Canada retail sales and then we go back to the states for core PC price index Personal income data University of Michigan, but again This is final reading the consumer confidence coming out of the eurozone is really a non-market moving event Not sure why that would be bolded to be quite frank and then from a speaker's point of view you do have a Bank of England member and potentially interesting because Haskell is a Decentre remember 7-2 has been the composition of the vote split of late from the Bank of England and Haskell and Saunders have been those two characters So interested to see what Haskell has to say speaking at 11 a.m. And then don't forget you do have the Futures options for single stock and index Explorations, so this is called quadruple witching. It's all happening today. Which does then typically lead to Increased volume volatility at around toward the period of the exploration So do be aware of that particularly at the New York Stock Exchange open could see Even though it's always quite volatile at the open perhaps even more erratic today given quadruple witching And then you've got the explorations as well Fading in if you're trading those UK European Equity index futures. So the FTSE 1015 Eurostocks 11 backs at 12 I try I think cack is at 3 I think so just pop me a question a chat. There's any questions on that All right, that is it from me. I will hand you over to Sam And I will speak to you later for the outlook at 3 p.m. When I'll be back on the mic with the pierce current Thanks very much Thank You center Delivered the rally as usual in Christmas and S&P Dale Jones and that's that making all time highs again Last night 32, what did we get to round the top there? Almost 32 14 so seems as though we have broken out that range and actually just having a quick look at here We've put a bit of a rectangle in that 3200 We had a bit of a retest on that R1 as it came back down on the break So that was a decent opportunity into the back end of the session. I still have that marked up really today I think if we were to come back down to that point with the low volume You'd expect it to hold so yeah 3203 3200 is a sort of solid enough area For a point to buy you would suggest and obviously below that that lower part of the range unless that was to go You'd feel pretty comfortable still holding this market, especially as the volume Slows down and it really I tweeted ages ago, but it really does remind me of 2017 December into 18 if we have a quick look back at that Here you can see just those those grinds higher. Yes, a couple of down days No, we're near as big as what we've seen this year, but you can see just grinding grinding grinding grinding and then Quarter one we saw obviously a big correction. Are we gonna see that this year or next year? I should say time will tell but yeah for now you've got to be you've got to be happy holding this Position to the upside and in intraday. You're happy to I would say look for points to get in around 32 Oh three if you look at where we've just come down from is there an opportunity with a break of a trend Well, I'd start to get one of those on It's not really respected as of yet But if we were to get maybe the third test up there and also a break of you know Some of that Asian session high then it could be a decent enough opportunity Having a look over at gold, which we were saying yesterday morning. I like the look of Along above 19 can't quite get there just yet 1487 88 to be more precise so if we can get above there, I like the look of a long and Of course to the downside if we were to break any of those those trend lines that started on the 12th of November Then I'd like a short but that seems a while away yet We are now if we put this back to the 60 minute perhaps in a smaller range than one to keep an eye on here to the upside We hit it again yesterday just failing to close above and then to the downside. Yes We spiked below there on Wednesday, but we're still in in that sort of area So yeah, just pushing below the pivot But I wouldn't get too excited unless we break out of that and then more importantly the 1470 1487 88 89 90 region But if we break yesterday's low, you know that trend line could be slightly more interesting However, it has been very range bound today We'd expect a bit of support just a bit below where we're trading 1480 and then we would look to if that doesn't hold S1 would be the sort of target point We haven't got the trend line in play as of yet, but from the low the week to the low yesterday You can start to see where that might offer an area where people Look to get in and take some profit just having a look at this now as well You can see from the high that we had back on the 17th to the 18th broke through fan support once and again twice now You can see the market respecting that so worth having on and that's of course along with a previous High so key key level support there for gold even in this early hour Let's move over to euro, which is just continued this drip lower That trend line that broke from the the low of December Let's get that one again. You can see we We came back to test it yesterday will be at Choper Lee, which you know It's is understandable that the R1 and and some resistance from what would have been the morning of Wednesday acted great and we have come back lower since then we'd have a trend line from the 70 to that high Just above the pivot again marking up with some resistance from yesterday as a good point Perhaps for this if the market was to push higher for the sellers to come back in again The low of today is the low that we had back on Wednesday as well key level And even below there wouldn't get too excited just because you go then start coming in the low yesterday The 12th and even the highs that we had back on the 11th and 10th So quite a lot of support do we close the week below there? That would be key and I would then expect a further week to the downside But for now really key point of Support you can just see make sure it's above the camera here going back for the 10th of the month to where we are now solid base Have a look over that the pound and as I mentioned that's below where we were last week Which is just remarkable really? I mean to the to the highest 500 pics lower, which is baffling if you were to have told me that Friday morning But yeah big move lower So on Twitter last night a few people think this is a great place to get into to go long We're currently trading on the levels not seen since the 3rd of December Which is also the high on the this new March contract from the 18th of November So it is a good technical level, but it has been others like the 12th low that didn't quite hold up So if you're of the view that there's still a bit more downside to come 31 handle looks quite good You got the low there of the 18th and then the 12th as well I key level that we did break through the the classic short of that once we got confirmed break below as was a great trade And before there you would be looking really at that the pivot point as with markets that are in a bit of a trend It's always nice to Have those trend lines on so for example here yesterday's low in the pound marking up with the low of The last night almost reached it today for that trend But an opportunity could well be on the break of that and when the pound may To the end of the summer was going down these patterns were just you know So good to have on on the brakes of those trends So that's something I would look to to have marked up there quick look over the other currency pairs Aussie dollar Not doing too much this morning, but I had found support on what was yesterday Sort of afternoons no mornings high We came back in the early hours to find support there in bit of a new range You would argue with the the highs that we had back on there the 16th of this week So can we break either way will be key a couple of trend lines as well You'd look to have on that been well respected from the 18th to that evening and then yesterday afternoons low As well there the yen yesterday and this is yen against the dollar had a decent push all day really until We got to around seven o'clock and it almost reached what was such a key point You can see here so much resistance here from the 12th and the 13th didn't quite make that today That marks up with the R1 for a bit of a range trade. I think that's the preferable option here But to be fair on the low volume day S1 also With yesterday's lows and the lows of the 16th and 13th looks like a not a bad Idea to look to get in on that oil yesterday spiked higher really decent push Looks like it was going to continue continue before just drifting low into the back end of the session As with oil and other markets, you can see when we're starting just to trend here We'd look to have some of these trend lines on and over the last few days You can see we've certainly respected this one quite nicely So would remain bullish I guess if we stay above that and then the $61 handle was in the mix there as well for this market in which is just Drifted you can see in the mornings into the early afternoon each week before the back end of the session We have come down one two three days in a row that is done that as with Friday Could always be a relatively be quiet one. I don't imagine too many people were gonna You know be be in shall we say especially had a Christmas, but calendar You've got the GDP Q3 reading from the UK To keep an eye on and then the final reading GDP from the US retail sales Canada and some lower tier US data as well So there is some data that could move things however I reckon to be relatively quiet no overall fundamental change in market So I would look for a bit of a continuation in things from optimal levels. Hope you all have a good trading day We'll catch you in the chat for and and peers 2020 outlook and I hope you all have a good day