 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Morning Market Kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good Wednesday morning everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN, 9.06 a.m. Wednesday. We got a full day of trading today before Thanksgiving holiday tomorrow. The market's open for a half day of trading Friday. We will not be open on Friday. Folks, I'm gonna be digesting a lot of turkey. That's my plan on Friday. Keep my eye on the markets as well. As we got some volatility coming into the holiday weekend, we got the S&Ps right now, down 28 points right now trading at 46, 40, NASDAQ 100, down 132. We'll put it on a short-term timeframe to see the move this morning. There's your S&P. We're down to about 46, 60. We're approaching the lows we had intraday yesterday. You were as high as above 46, 90 at about 2 a.m. Eastern time. NASDAQ 100 growth stocks trading lower as well. Lows yesterday, about 60 points below where we're trading at right now. 16,179, down about eight-tenths percent. Dow down about six-tenths percent. 35,560, the Russell negative by nine-tenths percent. Russell about eight points away from 2300, which was right where we were for the lows yesterday morning. Crude, a little bit of volatility in both directions. Remarkable. What do they say, folks? Buy the rumor, sell the news. Or in this case, it would have been selling the rumor because you had Crude potentially with opening up the reserves and buying the news. As the news comes out yesterday, we're gonna release reserves. Other countries are gonna release reserves as well. The market says, why do you think we just traded from 85 down to 75? And with that, you're about $3 higher. Look at that acceleration. Remarkable. We're up above 78 bucks on Crude. Again, gold contract. Continuing to slide. Tough one for gold. We were at 1873 last week. I got, let's back it up, 10 days. Even 20 days. 1879 as recently as, what are we going back? Nine days ago, 1879. So that's last week. Last Monday, I believe? Yeah, no. Shame on me. What's the 15th? Yeah, last Monday. Perfect. 1879, just like that. We give up about 100 bucks, but crazy enough. We were just at 1758 as recently as November 3rd. So you're talking about $120 to the upside, $100 to the downside, all within the span of about three weeks. Gold's got some volatility in it, along with the rest of the market as well. Notes and bonds. Lower prices, higher yields. You hear that, folks? Lower prices, higher yields. We're approaching 1.69%. Boy, when we had the Fed decision, which was Monday morning, you were sitting at 1.53, I think? Something like that. I mean, you're talking about 2.10% in the 10 year in the span of a heartbeat. We're now at 1.2918. You put this thing on a three-year weekly. Not exactly a charting pattern I was following, but I had this up there just as it was going. Maybe definitely not a parallel channel line, right? But maybe a little bit of a triangle action. Maybe you're gonna break out of there one way. And interesting, you line up where we are in terms of the lows of March, correlating to the lows of October. Now breaking below those levels. Quite a weekly bar we got going on. It's only Wednesday. You're talking about a high of 130, 24. And right now, we're sitting at 1.2918 on the 10 year, the 30 year, negative 11 ticks at 1.5901. You see the difference, right? And the divergence of these yield curves. The 30 year, not back to even where we were in March, right? Let alone the 10 year, you're talking about what was the low in March? 130, 26, so a full point and more lower. Definitely a lower. You're seeing lower lows and lower highs in the 10 year versus the 30 year. You might just call that a consolidation even, right? No lower lows, maybe a lower high from where we were. But keep your eye on the difference there as you have that yield curve being affected in a big way. All right, let's jump right into the news. We got a lot of economic data this morning, which is pretty cool. We'll kick things off with so far, getting the most headlines, claims for US jobless benefits plunged to the lowest since 1969. Man, we're breaking records everywhere, right? I mean, it seems like we're breaking every single record for decades upon decades. And yes, we're in a time like none other for decades. So it would make sense. But you're talking about 199,000. And I had stated before, very healthy economy is somewhere between two and 300,000. I didn't realize that we hadn't been below 200,000 since the 60s. It's the 2020s. We're at 199,000. And the point I had made was to say a healthy economy, it's probably fairer to say now, it's between 250,000 and 300,000 or 350,000 jobs, just for the churn of a weekly churn of a healthy economy of just the unfortunate situation of people losing their jobs for whatever reason in an economy that large, we're at 199,000. The argument could have been made that you don't have to just get back to a healthy point, right? With the amount of jobs that we should be making up with what's going on in the economy, if the job market is as strong as it is, it would make sense that we see jobless claims below maybe what the average or a healthy economy had been. And now you're seeing it, 199,000. Now the data that we get to really keep your eye on, we got our man Basil Chapman, he's coming up next folks at 10 o'clock. We got live programming all day today. All right, we got Basil at 11, excuse me, Basil at 10, Larry at 11, Fast Market at 12, Steve Rhodes at one, Dave White at two and Tom O'Brien at three, as we wind out the three-day work week. Gotta love that this week. But 10 o'clock, okay, what we're gonna get here, jumping over to the numbers. So we got jobless claims at 8.30. We got a second reading of third quarter GDP. We'll go over that in a moment too, nothing too surprising. With October, durable goods orders. But what we all, what we get, that's really gonna be the main event for economic data out this morning is the PCE out at 10 o'clock. So I mentioned Basil, Basil will be doing the program. We might get some movement there. PCE numbers. We also get new home sales numbers for October. You also get Michigan sentiment gauge. It's just like everybody's unloading everything because they're not coming back to work on Friday. Folks ain't happening. We got crude oil inventory data at 10.30. Natural gas storage report at 12. And we got minutes of this month's Federal Reserve meeting published at two o'clock. And we got some deer earnings as well. We got other earnings out there as well. We got gap earnings out there as well. Let's jump over to gap. Gap earnings, retail, tough, tough go around on retail. When you talk about Kaboom to the downside, that's a 20% drop folks from 2350 to 1870. You're talking about basically a 20% drop to the downside. So we're trading at 1867. We put gap on a chart going back a year for some context here, 1867 is below where we've been at all year. There are big time winners and losers in this retail market. Now we put it back on a three year weekly. Okay. We're basically like right back to where the pandemic began in terms of $18 and changing gap. Now you compare that to some of the other retailers and there's a lot of different retailers in the market. There's Nordstrom for you, JWM. They had their earnings this week. Now they had their earnings, excuse me, last night down dramatically as well. Now look at where this one, 24 bucks. You're gonna open on Nordstrom. I mean, you're gonna open in Nordstrom where you were trading at in June of 2020. You're gonna open in Nordstrom, where you were trading at only a couple of dollars higher from April of 2020, folks, April of 2020. I mean, there was no business was happening. Nordstrom was not happening in any way. You compare that to the likes of a Macy's. Yeah, talk about an acceleration. They come into the payment, Demek at 16. They're down to four, they're trading at 33 right now. You know, Walmart's not a fair comparison to a company like a small retailer. Like a Gap or something like that. But nonetheless, you see the difference. For these companies that are struggling to be at that level, pay attention, folks, because they have competitors that are doing it, let alone target, my goodness. Pulling back a bit. We'll get into it a little bit more. Amazon shares this morning, trading down a bit. Amazon trading at 35.80. Stay tuned, folks. We got a lot to talk about. It's Wednesday. It's almost Thanksgiving. We're right back. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at tfnn.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pesavento on stocks you need to pay attention to, and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years' experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos, and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. 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Watch online at tfnn.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN. Educating investors. Back folks, we got the markets right now. S&P's sitting down about 24 points. I got a chart of Amazon up here. Amazon, the COVID low is make it down to 1626, I think, yeah, 162603. The market doubles the price of Amazon by July from just where we were in March. Since then though, chopping around. We go from a consolidation basically from July of 2020 all the way through from October where this market accelerated higher almost made it up to those highs. Last week, you're talking about a high of 376215. So within about $9 of that 3773 price point, Amazon pulling back a bit, taking a look at some of the articles on Amazon even this morning. Amazon's $4 billion holiday fix, half empty trucks and $3,000 bonuses amid shopping snalls and record consumer spending. The company is prepared to sacrifice profit to get products to customers on time. So when they came out with their, let's back this up on a daily, they've had a couple quarters where they've talked about earnings. Can't recall, might have been this one when they came out in July. That may have been when they talked about that they may make nothing during the holiday season. I'm trying to remember whether that was October, time flies. Nonetheless, they've put out that they may basically make nothing during the holiday season because costs are gonna rise and that's gonna eat up all their profits. Now, when that came out, I said to myself, how does a company like Amazon that has a portion of their business in AWS where the margins are just off the charts, the business is off the charts, the growth is off the charts. It's a big portion of the reason why the stock's trading at 3,600 AWS. But point being, Amazon is in a very unique situation to be able to use that portion of their business to fight through the snarls that they, as Bloomberg put it, the snarls of the holiday season to be able to keep customers happy, deliver them on time. Anecdotal story, but I'm in target yesterday real quick. I was doing a pickup order, okay? Trying to get in there super quick. Needed some nighttime diapers for the little man. Gotta have the nighttime diapers, folks. Otherwise, maybe it doesn't make it through the night. So those are always helpful. So I'm in there doing a pickup order for a couple of other things as well. I'm thinking, all right, I'm gonna fly in there. It's like two o'clock, get out. No, that's not what happened, folks. The pickup aisle right next to kind of the customer service return area in the target that I was in, let's just call it a complete mess. There's like probably eight people not exaggerating in line for returns and exchanges. I'm sitting there for a pickup order. Okay, I'm sitting there for a pickup order for about five or 10 minutes. Somebody's going out to the cars. I thought I wouldn't sit in my car and make it as quick as possible. I'd walk into the store, make things as quick as possible. No, that was a mistake. Everything was a mistake, basically, showing up. I'm always thinking of things as a traitor. And I said to myself, this place is a complete mess right now. They're a complete mess. Now, back it up to Monday, I think it was. I'm in Publix. Publix, an absolute complete mess. People apologizing that they can't get us out fast enough. I didn't even realize the store was that packed as I was in there shopping for a few things. I make it to the register, and we've all seen that scene where it's an absolute scene. They got about four aisles open for the register. Every aisle's got about five people backed up already where you can't even move your cart through the area. Publix is a mess. Now that's holiday shopping during Thanksgiving season. You can write that one off. Target, that's coming into Black Friday. You get the kids off school this week. I understand that as well. But it's a mess right now. You can't have it being a mess. All these companies are struggling, whether it's to keep up with wages, to keep up with the amount of employees they have. They're doing tons of business, but you're gonna see that struggle persist. And Amazon, as a holder of Amazon in like a retirement account long-term position, I'm happy that they are spending that money. Now you might, I'm not happy if they're gonna penalize the stock price because there's gonna be no earnings this coming season. But the real point of what I'm explaining here is, this is necessary money because there may be some big problems. That target experience, not a good experience. And Target usually does very well for their customer experiences. There was one person, folks, one person that was dealing with the exchange return line. They eventually called some other employee over, amusing. They called the employee over and the employee walks over and goes, yeah, what's going on? And the employee that's there, like looks at the 15 people, eight people, 10 people that are waiting in line, and goes, could you jump on a register with me? And they're like, yeah, sure. That employee obviously did not care very much about what was going on at the time. But point being, even, you know, those employees having to figure it out, get behind the customer service desk, there's like 10 people there. Then on top of it, finally, somebody helps me out with my pickup order, right? I got a couple items, couple household items, literally like two items, three items. And then I have two boxes of nighttime diapers, as I said. So what happens? They come back, lady goes, okay, that's seven items. I'll be right back. I'll grab them. She comes back with a little plastic bag. She says, thanks so much. I say to the other nighttime diaper, are they here? Oh, that's the only thing they gave me. Yeah, so they're struggling, folks. They were there to let me walk out. She didn't realize that I guess there were two items with it. It's a mess. That is not good. Be aware of that stuff. Amazon, they're the best at it, folks. If they're struggling to make profits during the holiday quarter, how is a company like Walmart or Target gonna keep up? Now, I'll keep piling it on, okay? Now, we have some Walmart in my newsletter, Rocket Equities and Options, folks, okay? I believe in that company, but they got some problems. Walmart, for instance, the big thing that they have a problem with is that you order pickup for them, they're constantly out of things. And they do a replacement or something like that, right? That's unacceptable in coming into the year 2022 that consistently they don't have the type of supply management, okay, that can convey the supply available at a store as people are ordering pickup items. It makes me not wanna order Walmart pickup because I know that if I order Walmart pickup, they say it's available on their website and guess what? I order it and they say no, sorry, we're sold out. They need to spend the money to have the inventory management software available so that people ordering things online aren't consistently being told, hey, I know we gave you the option to pick that up in store, okay? But actually we don't have any in the store. That's something they gotta figure out. And I know maybe they can't figure it out quick enough, I guess I'm trying to understand it. It's just about money. They're not spending enough money to compete with a company like Amazon. You don't order something on Amazon folks and then they say it's sold out, okay? You can't pick it up the same day. That's the battle that they're dealing with here. But Walmart, not a great experience, right? They didn't have, I did pick up a Walmart and Target yesterday for a couple of things. They're close by, not a good experience. Walmart didn't have everything I wanted. They had a replacement that was okay, but even ordering it, I said to myself, this is gonna be a real bummer if they don't have everything I want so I'm all getting a few things at each place. So I have that sentiment in my mind around Walmart, geez, I hope I get what I want when I order, right? That's not good folks. And they should be able to fix that for a company that size competing with Amazon. And then Target, it was just a mess. It's gonna be a mess in the holiday season, but it was a little bit of a wake up yesterday folks. Get out and get everything you can because the line at the return exchange customer service line is the one that kind of blew me away. It's right near the front of the store. So it was like an absolute scene and a half at the front of the store, there's about eight to 10 people all waiting in line for customer service. There's two or three people waiting in line for a pickup, right? Where's the manager? I don't know. There's two employees. There's one behind the customer service desk that has to call over another employee and then the other employee that gets called over, doesn't say to themselves, oh, do you need some help? No, they say, what do you want? The person says, can you grab a register please? They say, yes, sure. They could care less about what was going on, obviously. So nonetheless, when you see Amazon might give away all their holiday profits, that might be an okay thing in the long run, folks, because this is going to be quite a holiday season. And if it just takes some half empty trucks and some $3,000 bonuses, and they get the job done and keep everybody happy and Walmart's a mess, Target's a mess, I'm just creating the possibility, okay? In the long run, that's going to pay off. We'll get into a little bit more when we come back some of these numbers, but that's the basic of it. You're talking about logistical efforts. See that? Walmart needs to improve their logistical efforts so that you can order something and know it's in the store. Pretty simple, right? Stay tuned, folks, we'll be right back for the open. Are you having fun trading the markets but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with? Become an Apex creditor in the trading markets and join the Tiger's Den Trading Room only at tfnn.com. The Tiger's Den is an exclusive trading room where successful traders from around the world come to exchange trades and ideas. 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Using this first-of-its-kind program, The Art of Timing the Trade Charts allows you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci formation setups, including guardleafs, ABCs, butterflies, and much more. The Art of Timing the Trade Charts is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days, weeks, or even months searching to find. And right now we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month. We are so confident that you're gonna love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day unconditional money-back guarantee. Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of The Art of Timing the Trade Charts today by visiting tfnn.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com. Welcome back, folks. We got markets open. We got the S&P right now, negative about 23 points. We got the Nasdaq 100, negative 108. Dow off 211. Russell right now, negative by 16. We got Bitcoin trading down 1700 bucks, kind of skipping right to the low. 56,000 been the area that it's found a little bit of a sport going back to last Friday. Crude sitting at 7823 right now. You got gold down a buck at 1782. Gold, the lows yesterday, right? Kind of where we're trading at right now. You had a low yesterday of 1781.70. We're trading right now at 1783. And we jumped to the all-important notes and bonds. We got the tender down about four ticks. We were as low as 129.16. We're trading at 129.20. You put this thing on a daily. Well, there's a weekly. Put it on a daily. The trend is your friend to the downside. That's for sure, right? You match up the highs, you match up the lows. The lows were right near that lower portion. It'd be interesting to see if that trend line holds sitting at 129.21. And that is correlating to a yield. I think we're talking about pushing 1.69% approximately. Let's pull it up. Where are we at? Wait, now 1.68%. Over in Europe, you get the Dax down 1.1%. FTSE down 0.2%. Over in Asia, Nikkei was down 1.5% last night. All right, jumping around to some of the stories that I got up here as well. Jamie Dimon. So it was interesting. I was chatting with my dad early this morning, about six, seven in the morning. And he had said, did you see Jamie Dimon? His remark, I think he's gonna regret that one. And before I knew it, within about a half hour getting off the phone, Jamie Dimon regrets quip. JP Morgan to outlast China Communist Party. You don't say that you're gonna outlast a dictatorship in China, folks, if you wanna do business in China. I wish more industry leaders would actually stand up to the garbage going on in China as opposed to just trying to do business there and profit off it. That's a whole show we could do in terms of whether it's right up and down the line from the NBA to Tesla to Apple to JP Morgan doing business in China. And China just basically snatching up their citizens and throwing them away if they say the wrong thing. And I'm not exaggerating. JP Morgan has almost $20 billion of exposure in the Chinese economy. And let's get down to what he had said. He made remarks Tuesday during a talk at the Boston College Chief Executives Club where he discussed his company's commitment to China in a wide-ranging comments. We hope to be there for a long time, he said. And he relayed a joke he made during a recent visit to Hong Kong. Careful on those jokes, folks. The Communist Party is celebrating its 100th year, so is JP Morgan, and I'll make you a bet we last longer. You think President Xi's gonna take him up on that bet? Yeah, he'll take him up on that bet, all right. And he'll just lock up everybody at JP Morgan. Bet one, done. With nearly $20 billion of exposure in the world's second economy, big ambitions to expand even further. The U.S. Bank has a lot riding on maintaining closure relations with the government that's sensitive about anything that might be construed as questioning its legitimacy. I mean, anyway, it says what it is. And these are the banks, billions of dollars of exposure, Citi, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, well behind. Members of the New York-based bank, JP Morgan, the government relations team and China offices had internal discussions about Diamond's remarks after he spoke Tuesday. They're already chatting about it. While some executives express concerns, the joke could be viewed as insensitive. The government relations team told the group that Diamond intended to stress the longevity. Yeah, you can't be joking about the end of a dictatorship with a dictator. That is not an amusing joke to the dictator, folks. I mean, it's just you can go on and on. And this is the part I want to get to earlier this year. JP Morgan won approval from Chinese regulators to fully own its China securities venture. They are just allowing this to come to fruition, where you didn't have to have basically a minority stake with a China-owned majority ownership. Now they're allowing foreign companies to have total ownership assigned that U.S. financial firms are foraging ahead with plans to expand in the country despite tensions between the two world's two largest economies. I would say so, and at the top of this, they had him pulling back his statement there. I regret, and I should not have made that comment, he said in the statement of the bank Wednesday. I was trying to emphasize the strength and the longevity of our company, not the weakness of a dictatorship, is how he should have finished that sentence. We'll jump over to JP Morgan this morning. They're higher, no worries. I mean, they're not gonna go lower who are yields are going folks. JP Morgan, you're seeing higher highs and higher lows right now. We're trading at 168.59. We were trading in a 159 handle as recently as five days ago, folks. What's that, Friday? Yeah, Friday, we had a 159 handle. We got a 168 handle today as rising yields. The banks liking that idea in a big way, higher today by about 310th percent as well. All right, jumping around to what else we got going on. Excuse me. Yeah, Mr. Elon Musk speaking of. He's selling those shares, folks. He's selling his 10%, he's gonna get to it. That's my take on it. And I think it'd be hard-pressed to argue the other side of him not getting there. He's offloaded 9.2 million shares and exercised options, $9.9 billion. He's cashed in and he's only halfway there to what he's gonna be selling. I would imagine that the market has basically priced in that he's selling them. He sold another 934,000 shares according to a filing posted Tuesday, carried out to cover taxes related to Musk exercising an additional 2.15 million stock that he showed. That puts him at 9.2 million shares versus 9.9 billion since he conducted his Twitter poll asking whether he should sell 10% of his holdings. Twitter said he should and he said he'd abide and that would be 17 million shares. He's only right now at what they say, 9.2 million shares, he's got about half of it to go. Tesla, down 3.5% right now. Potentially on that news, potentially on the news we've got rising yields. There's a lot going on in the market right now. But nonetheless, you're lower. Everything considered, I'd say it's held up pretty well. When you have the founder selling a $10 billion position in Tesla. Now, the thing that's interesting here, you zoom in on the action, right? I mean, Tesla's doing 30 to 40 million shares a day. That's recently. I mean, you get some of the big moves, you're doing 50 to 60 million shares a day. You're doing 35, even at the lower troughs recently, you're doing 21. You go back to some calmness, you're doing 15 to 20 million shares. Point being, he sold a million shares. Yes, that is going to affect the market in a stock like Tesla that you're doing the volume that you're doing. Probably not gonna affect it beyond the fact that it should affect it when you have a CEO selling out of that position. Keep your eye on that folks. I mean, I've said it before, it's kind of a reach, but there's nothing to say that Tesla, he might move on in some capacity from Tesla. Tesla is on a ramp that is just accelerating in a big way. They are around for the greater future. They're a trillion dollar company. Elon is an innovator, a creator. He's a visionary. And I wonder whether he's turning the point and he'll always be involved in Tesla, I imagine. But maybe he's turning the point to saying, you know what? Maybe I don't need $200 billion tied up in Tesla shares. Maybe I'll start dumping some of that, diversify my position and start doing other things besides maybe trying to travel to Mars. It's possible folks, no other creator would kind of just abandon their company and maybe move on to something else. Elon's the one guy. I mean, he did PayPal, almost went bankrupt after doing PayPal to create Tesla, let alone SpaceX and everything else who comes with him. Remarkable that you're pushing right now. Even right now, hopefully you guys got me. There we go. You're talking about a company with a market cap of $1.07 trillion. That's what the founders sell in a $10 billion position. All right, folks, stay tuned. We got the S&Ps down 20, NASDAQ 100 down 142. We'll be right back in three minutes. Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area, including the surrounding St. Petersburg, Tampa, and Clearwater markets? Tiger Real Estate, LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area. 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Every Wednesday, folks, at 40 past the hour, we talk to Teddy. You can reach Teddy every trading day at forex-trading-unlock.com. Teddy Kegstad, you almost ready for some turkey Thanksgiving, man? Yeah, Mike, I'm down in Arkansas visiting my mom, so I just moved her into a new place yesterday, and they have to replace the brand new dishwasher this morning, so I'm doing this from the deck. I love it, man, I love it. Well, I'm glad you joined us because it's a shortened trading week. We're closed Friday, half day in the markets, but man, let's kick it off with crude, Teddy. You're probably sticking to your guns with the action we got yesterday, but we gotta talk about it in terms of the reserve is released and had been speculated for some time, and people had said it's a small plug and a big problem, but pretty interesting action that you get the three to almost $4 rally yesterday. We're sitting at $78 bucks in crude. What do you see in that market right now, man? Keep on rallying, baby, keep on rallying. I just left Chicago a few days ago, and the gas prices were just under $4 a gallon. Ironically, I'm here in Arkansas, and it's almost a dollar less. It's kind of weird, so that's crazy when you think about the pricey difference between just 750 miles in the United States, so, but the taxes are higher in Illinois, so that's probably the reason. So, but yeah, I'm still very bullish on oil. I can't see it even remotely dropping. You gotta think about how much fuel we're wasting every day because you got all these diesel trucks sitting idle waiting for them to get their containers emptied and trucks loaded, you know? So, that's one big problem, you know, as far as, I mean, the oil trade's got a lot of issues. I'm still bullish. I'm looking at $100. I, like I said a couple weeks ago, right now, this is a consolidation. It's hard for anyone to even say that this is gonna turn around and go south and be a bearish market and be better for us right now. I just don't see it. There's no reason to even remotely look at oil as being bearish whatsoever. I mean, I think yesterday was the exclamation point, man. If you know, how can you be a bear when you get that type of news? And it was expected, so I get that type of deal, but quite a three to $4 pop, man, just like nothing like almost 80 bucks. And I love the Chicago Black Oaks, man. You're working it. You're in Arkansas. It's really stressful. Just like just waiting for my friend, it's jeans day. Gotta love it, man. Thanksgiving out with the family, it's perfect. Okay, so, so Forex, man, we got a lot going on Forex as well. We got the dollar to highs. Where do you wanna kick off on the Forex market? It's a layup fundamental rally in the U.S. dollar right now. I mean, since Sunday night, the 30 year bond is down over three basis points in two and a half days. Right there, if you can't know that the dollar's gonna get a rise on that one while you're in the wrong business, you know? So, and the bonds are like half of the 8, 10 ticks lower today already this morning. So there's the best support. You know, the British pound is falling like a rock. The Euro is tanking, you know, an Australian dollar. I mean, now that we're seeing that these detaining COVID facilities or concentration camps, wherever you wanna call them, they do exist and they're sending people there. Australian dollars is just a rock falling into the sea. It's gonna keep on tanking now. There's no reason for that market to lift at all. You know, so I think that you're gonna see, remember we were talking about, you know, the yen getting up to 116, where we broke out last week we were talking, we were buffering under highs, we had a little correct little sell-off. We're right there again. We're just under 116. I can see us hitting that by Friday, if not even later today, you know? So, and 122, I think is still a very valid target for the US dollar yen over the next couple of weeks going into the end of the year. Yeah, you really can't deny that trend almost like you can't deny the trend in crude going on, man. Quite the consolidation even around 110 from April to October and the thing takes off almost to 115. Yeah, quite the move. Now, for Forex markets, because I'm not familiar, how does, I know Thanksgiving's a US holiday. But does that affect things? I know US, you know, of course they're a big player, but how does that affect the Forex market? Something like our holiday closed tomorrow and really a lot of people closed on Friday. We got a half day, but where it's one of the only days we're actually closed when the market's open at TFNN. How does that hit a Forex market? Well, you know, it does hit the Forex market because you got to remember that except for, you know, stock market is shutting down early, you know, what have you as the holiday hours in the United States. But you remember our bond market also has holiday hours. So when the bond markets has fewer hours, that starts to constrain the currency market because no matter what our interest rates drive, the biggest pricing value in the currency markets. So I mean, obviously there's not going to be any Fed moves over Thanksgiving or anything like that. You know, but the machines aren't shut off but they're not running on full throttle. You know, so I always tell people, holiday markets stay away from them because one, they're very thin. I don't care if it was 40 years ago or four days ago, holiday markets are just a trap. Unless you're in a position and you're managing it, you should not be entering or even, you should be on vacation, take a holiday. It's why it's a holiday, you know? So you get a lot of erratic movements and that's something you may see because we have a lot of numbers that you were talking about earlier that are coming out today. We could have the algos starting to spike around but my feeling right now is that the trend is so strong because the interest rates are tanking, the dollar is rallying. That momentum I think going into the holiday is going to be exacerbated because of the drying up and liquidity. You know, you have guys like myself, after I get off with you, my positions are set. I'm not going to look at anything until I get home this weekend. You know, it's done, you know? I mean, whatever happens, happens. You know, not that everyone's going to do that but the majority I would say the professionals in the industry will be. Now, Europe and Asia, are they going to do much? Probably not unless we do have some big reaction. There's not a lot of news that would shake them up, you know? So I don't really think you're going to have that type of effect, you know? But Monday I would think that we're going to have a scrambling market, you know? So I liked your little piece about Jamie Dimon's comment. You know, I'm the first person who don't like the guy. I like the joke. And I think that more people should do it and stand up for China. Yeah, yeah. It's, you know, for the amount of money that those companies have just to make that decision with everything going on, I mean, it seems like over and over that story, man, no matter how big you are over in China, whether you're Jack Ma or whether you're that poor tennis star recently that came out and accused the vice premier. It's scary stuff when people can just disappear from public. You know, the moment they say anything about leaders over there. So it's, you know, at some point- All the more reason to speak out while you can. Yeah. And the NBA players, and listen, over here, I think it gets overdone, the beef they get about everything going on. But I think they should catch beef for the way that they don't care about anything going on in China. And it's all about cash for the NBA and it spans everything. They just come to mind, you know, how, anyway. Money's only worth so much, man. In China over there, it's bad news. I don't, you know, you go over to China and you behave everybody because everybody's watching you over in China. Seriously, right? We, you know, for all the Forex markets moving, Teddy, we got about a minute left. What's the one you're looking at the most with maybe the most conviction? Because there's been some big moves and I think the trend is, you know, right what you're talking about. What's the one that you have the most conviction on as we look at those markets? Your favorite currency and one of mine, the US dollar yen, I am a raging bull. I think that with all conviction that this thing is not going to stop. 116, I've been calling this one for a month, saying that by Thanksgiving around this time, we are right here, we're half a dollar away, you know. So, and not to toot my own horn. No, it's big time, man, you have. With that in oil, it's been, listen, I appreciate these conversations. I know the listeners do too, man. Well, Teddy, enjoy Thanksgiving, man. Yeah. 122, we'll be talking to you next Wednesday, man. Enjoy that beautiful foliage out there, man. I love those leaves out there. Have a great Thanksgiving. We'll talk to you next week. Thanks, guys, you do too. All right, take care. Thanks, Teddy. Stay tuned, folks. We'll come right back. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis. 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The Tiger First mortgage program pays 7% per year, paid monthly on secured, high-value, buildable properties in St. Petersburg, Florida. The investment is for four years, paying 7% per year, a $7,000 per a $100,000 invested. Your investment is secured by high-value real estate in St. Petersburg, Florida. Your investment can be anywhere from $100,000 to $500,000. You want to make $1,000 per year on $100,000 invested or $7,000 per year on a secured Tiger First mortgage. The Tiger First mortgage program may be just the program for you. The Tiger First mortgage program pays 7% per year, paid monthly. For more information, you can call 877-518-9190. That's 877-518-9190. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com. Welcome back, folks. We got the S&Ps right now down 27 points, training at 46-60. And as I said, you got Basel Chapman coming up next. Should be an interesting day in the markets. We got action already, but we're going to get the PCE out at 10 a.m. So look for that data point. Basel will be on the air doing his program. Should be interesting action. As I said, one final story I wanted to look at before we wrap up the program. As college enrollment plunges, schools must adapt to post-pandemic reality. So about half of the country's post-secondary institutions saw 3.2% drop in student enrollments this year on top of a 3.4% decline last year. That's a 6.6% drop over two years, raising concerns for your Americans to see the value of post-secondary education. Because I was very lucky to have an amazing education. Went to an amazing high school up in Devin, Massachusetts, Noble and Greeno. Very privileged, an amazing high school. Kind of just, I think it was one of the greatest influences in my young childhood. That education went on to Villanova University after that, very fortunate as well. But man, some of these numbers that they're paying for tuition these days is just staggering. And when you think about it, I have a young son now who's not even one year old. He's gonna be hopefully going to college in 17 or 18 years. At some point if you save for college and saving for college cost you four or $500,000, maybe you say, I'm gonna give you four or 500 grand when you turn 18, maybe in a trust as opposed to putting you through a school using up to half a million dollars. And yes, education is always worth it. But things have been out of whack for a long time with the way that they're just pushing out loans, allowing these schools to raise their prices. And when you get into it, in terms of where the breakdown was, here we go. I just wanted to finish this up. Well, the dropping college and university enrollments occurred across public and private with two and four year. Community college hit the hardest. That's a real bummer. Falling 6% after a stagnant 9.4% last year, public four year programs down 2.5%. The other side of that is these schools had a nerve charging full tuition when you were doing business online. I mean, part of the best experience of college was being around people and the life knowledge that you learned from the age of 18 to 22. If I'm sitting in front of a computer and paying 60 grand to go to some big school, that is not a good experience. All right, folks, that wraps it up. Have a great Thanksgiving. Stay tuned. We've got live programming all day. Basil's up next. Have a great Wednesday, everybody.