 So, welcome to another weekly e-charting analysis webinar. We're on the 20th of June 2016, and it's the final week before the big one, before the Brexit referendum. And obviously it's roiling markets. We saw a big rollover, as I assure you know, last week, but right in the final couple of days, we saw everything turn around. And that's getting extended today, big time, looking especially at the British pound, also the FTSE 100, seeing huge gains, biggest one-day gain in the British pound since 2008. So those who are predicting volatility, yep, you've got it right there. Calling direction, definitely slightly trickier, it's really turning on the flip of a coin at the moment. So that's our risk warnings out of the way. So I'm going to jump straight to the British pound. Apologies to anyone outside the UK, but I think probably no apologies due there. You know the Brexit is obviously front and centre in markets at the moment. This is a chart of the British pound. Now obviously this is a charting webinar, and I'm slightly biased towards discussing the charts and the benefits of looking at charts, but just look at this, look at how markets have reacted from our support here. Now I've gone through these two support levels here, down here, but really if you had your buy order in and around the low, then we've just spiked 200 pips in a single day from that support. Even if you'd just taken profit there it was a nice tidy little trade, but if you'd held on two days later we're now at the top of the range again, and we've basically paused for the moment, bang on the initial peak that we made back in February. So we're just trading right back and forth within the range here. And you can see that as the polls were, you may have seen from our weekly email that I sort of did a little chart narrating how the polls had moved sterling around. During this period of time the polls were mostly favoring remaining in the EU, and then it was during this sort of period that we saw a sharp downturn, big turn in volatility, obviously getting closer to the vote as well. Polls started to show favoring a Brexit, favoring a leave, and now just over the weekend we've had this big gap through the support zone here, I'd argue, to push us right up to the top of the range. So 144, kind of the middle of the range of this 140 to 147 that we've been in for quite a while now since we've had that first drop down. So I know this is obviously very counter to the current momentum, but my assumption still here would be that sometime between here, maybe not right here, it's possible, but sometime up towards the peak that we saw on the 3rd of May, right in this 147-60 type vicinity, there's a good chance that some sort of poll comes out in favor of leaving again and markets get rocked and we've rolled over again. So very tempting to go with the current momentum, but we are still in a trading range. Now that, obviously, any trades at the top of this range here could obviously go wrong, but the nice thing about a range trade, especially a nice wide range like 140 to 147, 700 pips, is that you can take trades at the top of the trading range with a low risk to reward ratio. So you have your trades near, your shorts near the highs, if they go wrong, you just have your stop above the high somewhere, obviously up to your decision as to how much above the high, the higher you have your stop, the less risk there is of getting stopped out, but obviously the bigger, greater financial risk you're picking yourself under. But if we did drop down towards the bottom of the range again, that's 700 pips on offer for risking a small amount. So that's the nice thing about a very well-defined trading range. Obviously, it may not go the whole 700 pips and you have to manage the trade according to your system, often with the benefit of hindsight, this trade at the bottom, best holding it to the top of the range, but sometimes that's not the case. We easily could have capped down here had the polls been different, so there we have it. We're in range trading conditions, also worth noting that we're back here, which hasn't worked too well in terms of here, but we broke down from this rioting trend line. We're back here testing the underside of this raising trend line, and we're back up above the 60 mark, and you can see here that about 65 has been resistance in the RSI recently, so maybe a little push up to 65 into this rising trend line on the RSI could be another layer of resistance on top of the top of the trading range and the 200-day moving average. Let's have a look at Euro sterling as well. Another good example of a good technical level. When we've obviously had this resistance sewn on for a while, the rather kind of, you know, and I said it at the time that the head and shoulders pattern was tricky because there really was no obvious neckline, so the height of the shoulders was very nice. So here we have left shoulder, right shoulder, but we're looking at this. Where did we have the neckline? So if you've taken this as the breakdown, maybe you've done OK here, but if you've taken this much 10th low as the neckline, pretty much faked out on the breakdown here, and we've gone all the way back up. And then we were talking last week extensively about these long tails beneath the 80 level, and eventually that selling pressure, which is over in here, where we tried to, you know, buy as a push the market up, the sellers have pushed it right back down again, having four days in a row. Eventually, we closed down here, that was the lowest of one, two, three days, and then we just broke down again on Friday, and then obviously gapped lower, matching that rally in the British pound today. So there isn't quite the equivalent in terms of support level as well defined as the 79 level, and it's perhaps on these sort of occasions where when the support is not so obvious, you know, I've obviously drawn in the 0.7650, which I think, you know, does seem to have acted a bit of a pivot since it was reversed strongly on that March 10th. That would be an area to consider, otherwise the tailing stopped. Forgot to mention before that any questions at all, obviously, feel free to send them through the Q&A or the chat box. So let's keep the focus Brexit here. So let's move to the FTSE 100. So again, quite, I mean, it's very choppy trading and it's certainly tricky and anyone who had been trading this head and shoulders pattern had a luck here. The objective of that head and shoulders was down below 5700. We obviously not met that whatsoever. We've run into this support zone in and around the 5900 and rallied pretty strongly from there. And it would appear that if we're maintaining, say, this is the support zone around the 5900 and this is the resistance zone around 6500. It now looks like we're going to push back towards the top of the trading zone. And trades in this area, which are basically in the middle of the trading range, have just a smaller probability of working out. Because we're not really in a world of fine trend here. You can certainly trade on us getting to the top of the range. But say if you do place a trade here around 6200, 6250, your downside to the bottom of the range is right down to 5900 again. But if you're assuming we stay in the range, the upside is only up to 6500. So your risk basically equals your reward. So you're more than likely to come out behind if you consistently take those kinds of trades. So that's UK markets. But if we look over to the US, which is also rallying alongside the general improvement in risk sentiment today, it's a little bit more bullish, a lot more bullish. This is the, we've had this on the chart for the last few, well, many, many webinars. This is the record peak up here on the 18, just above 18, 300. So we've had this nice bounce off the broken falling trend line. And now it looks like the market's going to have to challenge. I've got the 179.30 in there because that's been respected a few times. But really, 18,000 is the big one. We need to break back through 18,000. And then that opens the door to those record highs again. Still, at the moment, we are in a trading range. We made a lower low here. But we've obviously made a higher high. So we're kind of chopping left and right. There's not really a too well-defined upper barrier. I'd say it's just very choppy around the 18,000 mark, which is also the peaks from back in November. So quite a wide range in terms of risk since this is this peak up to the record high. But you could equally say there's another range from here down to 179.30. So in terms of quite where the breakout takes place, it's tricky when you have such a wide resistance zone. So I would say the most clear cut breakout to a new trend would be a close for the week above that record high, which is still a fair way from where we are now. And I think below there, still like the 5100, even though this chart looks more bullish, is for me, the fact that we're still in a range adds the bias to the downside. So just be aware that even if you're taking some short-term trades going along the market with the momentum at the moment, be aware that we're still in a range, in my opinion at least. And that adds risk to the downside in and around the 18,000 mark and above. Obviously, I haven't really mentioned any market events barring Brexit. So I should say that my opinion, I've been saying it all long, is that in the end, we vote to remain. It's not a personal opinion or anything. It's just how I see it playing out. And that's obviously being reflected in the market at the moment, but that can change quickly. There's a lot of people who share the opinion that the result will be remain. But if you've got a big position, you're a long investor, long the FTSE, long stocks in general. But you see an increasing risk of us exiting, which you consider a downside risk to market. So I think that's a fair assumption to make that the pound would drop, FTSE would probably drop if we did vote to exit. You're having some protection. You're basically doing some hedging trades. And so you're buying put options, or you can be on our platform, obviously, just selling the index, when maybe you have a portfolio of stocks and shares, but you're selling one of these index products, different ways of hedging. But obviously, as that poll came out over the weekend, saying that actually the remain camp was ahead again, a lot of people just peeling off some, if not all, of that protection that sterling in the FTSE may drop. So that all adds to the volatility here. I think one of the good things about this is very hard to call the reaction in markets in the lead up to the vote. But it will be very telling on how markets move after the vote. If we get some breakouts on that big news of the vote, that could have some good momentum behind it. So we could actually break out of some of these ranges that we've been talking about and open up some trending markets, which tends to be a little bit easier to trade. You know, when it's a trend, I mean, this is simple stuff, but always worth reminding yourself. When there's a trend, the direction is taken care of, you just have to time it. And a lot of evidence to say that really, you know, timing is not the main thing. When you're in a trend, you just have to get in there and ride it. Easier said than done, obviously. So let's just look at how Europe is reacting to all of this. Got the Germany 30. Again, in terms of, you know, very difficult to call exactly politically and economically how the Brexit will work out. But using the charts, working pretty beautifully right now in the Germany 30. We've had this support zone in since April with those two lows and it's bounced perfectly from there. So, you know, if you just had a simple buy, resting order at, you know, in and around this April 7th low, you know, that's worked out pretty beautifully at this point. And we're just running into a bit of potential resistance, I would say, from this broken rising trend line in around the round number of 10,000, obviously round numbers themselves, a bit of a cause for resistance. Bit above there, we've got the 200 day moving average. At about the 10,100 mark. So 10,100 in itself been a bit of a pivot in the past. So round number slash trend line resistance around 10,000 and then 10,100 has been a pivot in the past and the 200 day moving average. So definitely some strong resistance in those areas could mean, you know, depending on how polls work out, how sentiment changes, we could roll away from those areas or if we do get a breakout, you know, any short trades are not going to work out, but obviously that would be very telling that there is some inherent strength in the market and we could push a decent bit further from there up towards that 10,500 that's been the top of the year so far for the Germany 30. Should mention the other big event this week, Science and Brexit that actually comes before it is tomorrow Janet Yellen is going to be testifying before the Senate Banking Committee Congress on Wednesday and she's going to be summarizing the Fed's outlook on monetary policy. The fact that the Fed not only stayed on hold but also were fairly dovish in their statement has helped this return to risk sentiment this week. You know, things started to turn last week before we had any change in the polls. Now, may be debatable to some extent that the death of MP Joe Cox has somehow shifted the sentiment. Yeah, I'm sure it's, you know, if anything, it's a negative for the leave campaign. It does tarnish the image a bit but how negative is fairly debatable. You would hope that people are not basing their decisions on that, but you know, some will be, you know. So that certainly played a part but you can't get too tunnel visioned, as I mentioned here in my note here in the insights. Also central banks are still as important as ever. So since we've looked at a couple of currencies already, let's go back to a good example of what's, you know, of how to judge the risk on risk off nature markets at the moment. So Dolly Yen, a bit of a tricky one here because they're both being perceived as haven currency. So both the dollar and the yen. So we're getting a bit of a pickup off 104. We've not had a close below 104 yet. Trend is still very much down and we're below the level that we've been highlighting for a while, which is a 105 round number, but also the 105 30. We've, if you notice here, where we found the support, not a coincidence, I think, that it set this peak for May in 2013, which is where we've rebound a little bit from here. But the rebound's been fairly shallow, pretty weak. And again, it's because, yes, as the market rallies here, it's dumping yen, but it's also dumping dollars, particularly given that the more dovish Fed. Yeah, absolutely, feel free to ask questions anytime. So while we're at it, I just haven't had a look at Euro dollar yet. Still in this very choppy long-term range capped by about 115. Again, Euro a little bit tricky because it's, you know, we're trading Euro sterling, we're also trading Euro dollar. So sterling rallying here, but dollar is weakening. So Euro dollar, you know, sort of sitting in the middle, just based on the assumption that sterling is kind of driving FX volatility at the moment, means that Euro dollar is kind of sitting in the middle of nowhere. This recent range has been about 111 to 114 and change, and it's basically at 113 at the moment. So not far off the middle of that range. I think, again, it's range trading conditions. So 114, 60 to 15 opens up some better opportunities. You know, if you were looking for that level, you obviously missed the trades at 114, but you know, that's chop in the middle of the trading range. And you know, it's going to be very short-term traders with much shorter timeframes that are going to be making those kinds of trades, not for anyone with a slightly longer-term outlook. So let's switch gears to commodities here. I think my take on oil at the moment is that the fundamentals are slightly shifting. For a while, we've had slowing U.S. production, that's still the case, but we've had the rig count. So the number of oil drillers in the U.S. rise for a third week. So just a bit of an indication that maybe some U.S. shale is going to come back onto the market and add to that supply glut. But I think more than anything at the moment, oil is just moving in sync with risk-taking and stock markets. So along a lot of occasion, at least intraday, sometimes the closes vary. So you'll actually see that the correlation between the daily close on oil and the daily close on stocks, not that good, but intraday moving a lot together. And so oil rallying here, is it based on any news about the oil market? I would say not so much. It rallied when stock markets rallied on Friday. And I don't think you could say it's any news from the oil market that's causing oil to rally, and that's what's caused stocks to go. I think they're moving up in sync. So if you are trading oil, certainly still be aware of what's going on with Brexit and the other markets, they're all kind of correlated. Again, trading-wise, I to be fair, have not really been using this trend line that worked pretty nicely here. I've been using this channel which kind of drops through this low here, goes through this low. So that was slightly lower. It had a correlation, a sort of combination of this pivot area here at 46.20, which I was eyeing. We didn't quite get there. We basically used this one, two, three, this pink trend line, and we've rallied up from there with a bullish and golfing candlestick. So one thing to note here is that even if you missed the use of that trend line, once you get that bullish and golfing candlestick pattern, so reversal candlestick after a short down trend from a known support area, then that is still a by-signal itself at the end of that daily candle. Gold, obviously, going very much to the other direction today, again, it's being a haven. Gold is a safe haven as well. And so we're seeing gold fall away from 1300 again. Gradually pushing its way up there with slightly higher highs, trying to get above that 1300 barrier, not managed to close above there yet. And I think the risk here is after that sharp reversal that we got on Thursday, is if we 1275, if you could see on a sort of an hourly chart a lot better, has worked to support a number of times here. So if we get through 1275, then I think the momentum could quickly start sliding to the downside. We've obviously formed a lower high here. So through 1275 basically signifies us making a lower low as well. One quick thing I realized I wanted to mention just in terms of the yen and havens on all that business, the Japan 225 pretty much moves in sync with Dolly Yen. And we're seeing again a nice example of rallying of support in a range. So we've had this fairly well-defined range here in the Japan 225. Worth noting that I don't believe I had this trend line at any point. But obviously there's been a bit of a reaction there, a close below, a test, and a drop again. Trend lines like that oil one where there's only two touches often don't work. So you had the buy there on the Brent chart, that worked well. You had the buy here on this Japan 225 didn't work so well. So don't use the trend line by itself, try and keep it in the context of the kind of market we're trading in. This is clearly a range, whereas oil is clearly in an uptrend. So that uptrend line is gonna work better. So yeah, to finish things off, we've got a bit of a question going on here in terms of the long-term direction of US 30 and FTSE. A long-term direction of US 30 and FTSE. Yeah, well, certainly you've alluded to it in that, I'm not sure if anyone can see that if it's gone to the group or not. Basically, if the UK votes to stay in Europe, that obviously opens the door to the Fed raising rates and raising rates is obviously a big concern to markets, especially when growth is pretty lackluster. But if we do leave, the uncertainty would cause a sell-off as well, so yeah, two good reasons either way for why the market would sell off. I guess, I tend to agree that there's some definite strong resistance above us in markets as we currently stand and it's gonna take a fair bit to get through there and it's hard to really see what can be the catalyst to get us up through those new highs, but I'm not sure that Brexit is the only reason the Fed is, the Fed has held off raising rates in the June meeting. I'm more of the camp that I think they see some genuine risks to the global and the US economy. Things have started to slow down. That 35,000, whatever it was, non-farm payrolls, you can't blame that on Brexit. That's just the US job market slowing down. And that's been the main reason for wanting to hike. So even if things look okay in the US economy, has the Fed left it too late? And do they want to hike rates just as we're seeing the best we're gonna get? Even though if the economy would be fine going forward, if it's slowing, that's not normally the time in which the central bank tightens policy. Normally it's when it's accelerating, is when they tighten. So if the Fed holds back, then the economy kind of chugs along, then that you could argue is enough for markets to keep moving higher because the Fed at the end of the day is still backstopping us. So that would be the counter narrative I would say to those two scenarios. I hope that makes some sort of sense. So I think we'll call it a day there. Thank you very much for everyone attending. Good luck with trading this week. It's gonna be certainly an interesting one. And let's see how we vote in the referendum. And I'll certainly be talking to you about it in the weeks ahead. Okay, thanks a lot everyone. Jasper Lawler signing out.