 Hello and welcome to CMC Markets and the first non-farm payrolls webinar of 2017, happy new year to all of you. Hopefully this year will be as volatile and as hopefully profitable for all of you as maybe 2016 was. Certainly I think in terms of market volatility I certainly think that 2017 has the potential to be as equally as choppy but hopefully as profitable. Anyway this webinar will be hosted by myself, Michael Houston and my colleague in Toronto Colin Sosinski. Good morning everyone, happy new year. Indeed happy new year to you too mate because I think this is the first time we've spoken on the phone as well so it is. Hopefully we can shed a little bit of light on today's non-farm payrolls numbers and I certainly think expectations are a little bit lower in terms of the impact they're likely to have on the overall market. I think what we've seen thus far is that equity markets have got off to a fairly solid start the big question I think that I have and I'm not sure whether you share this Colin is whether or not the gains we've seen in the first few trading days of 2017 will be built upon or whether as you suggested that maybe we're seeing a little bit of a fake out higher before a correction lower. I think certainly what we have seen thus far is a little bit of weakness in the dollar despite the fact that we made new 14-year highs earlier this week and maybe there's potential that maybe we could be seeing a little bit of a pullback or could be due a little bit of a pullback as we head into these numbers and I think these numbers could actually play an important role in determining whether or not we get that US dollar pullback because since Trump and now was since Trump won in on November the 9th equity markets have been pretty much one way and I think potentially everyone's looking at the positives and not really paying that much attention to the negatives. Absolutely and and we're seeing that in the US dollar as well Michael I mean it just absolutely steamrolled everything in sight you know it crushed the euro and the pound and gold and Canadian dollar and you name it it's everything's just been flattened by the US dollar rally and yesterday was the first day since about the the last couple of weeks we've seen the US dollar kind of showing signs of peaking and yesterday was the first day we started to see it really start to give way the dollar starting to break down and everything else kind of starting to break out of some of these bases overnight trading has been fairly quiet and we've just seen things digesting but the breakout points have been holding so I think really as much as we might see action in the equity markets on on today's payroll numbers really I think the big the big focus is really going to be on currency markets where we're going to confirm or reject the moves we had in the US dollar yesterday. Yeah and I think actually Dolly N is probably a good bellwether for that Colin I don't know whether you agree with me but I've been looking on the chart forums I posted this this morning on the chart forums is this is potential there's a potential double top formation forming on the on the Dolly N here and we've got these two peaks here around about 1865 and we've got the bottom here which is around about 116 20 now we have broken below that already but I'm actually looking probably more at these sorts of these sorts of levels here for a potential breakout lower 115 60 I think that point is there and I think if we get a disappoint well actually that's a little bit lower it's 114 80 but certainly in the context of this dashed line here if we take this chart all the way out we can see that this 115 80 level was the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement level of the entire down move from the 2015 highs which initially acted as resistance we've broken above it we've posted a double resistance a double tap at 118 65 and thus far we've managed to hold above it around about 115 around about 115 60 70 you know and I think that for me would suggest that if we do get a push lower in the same way that we've had a bit of a push lower on the Chinese one as well then potentially we could see a little bit of dollar weakness I don't know what you'll take on that is but certainly I think there is some evidence that if we get a poor payrolls number maybe that could be the catalyst to push this lower yeah that's what I'm thinking as well Michael I think that the I think the what we saw in in the stock market particularly with the Dow once it got above 19 it just got drawn up towards 20 000 I think it got way ahead of itself here on the US dollar I think with where the dollar index has gotten itself to is pricing in four or five rate hikes for this year I'm much more dovish than that I'm thinking two I believe you're you're thinking that or even one and and even yesterday Williams from the Fed was out talking three so regardless of the the market has gone ahead of the minimum ahead of the party line and probably ahead of reality I think they've priced in Trump for perfection I think they figured that everything Trump's going to get to do whatever he wants there's going to be no ramifications and it's all going to be positive and glorious and that's not the case I mean the data can be bumpy the the process can be bumpy even if he does get what he wants it's going to probably take a year before things actually start get implemented and hit the economy this is Yellen's last year she's probably not going to be in a rush to cooperate very much either and so there's a and headwinds I mean where there was talking about you know if Trump starts bringing in stuff against China how does China retaliate or do they I mean he's been able to get his way with Mexico so far but you know what about Toyota though Colin sorry what about Toyota they've already the Japanese have already pushed back against him but yeah there's a lot of potential for pushback right he's so I think that and I think the pushback is just getting started so the market I think is thinking everything's going to go one way and there's ways that that can go wrong and the wheels can fall off so at this point the balance of the balance on the US dollar is definitely to the downside from where it's gotten and even if you did see hawkish news how much more hawkish can the market get yeah I think that's the big question I think if we if we cast our mind back to 12 months ago the market was pricing in four rate rises and that was always an unrealistic proposition in a deflationary environment which we had a year ago this year is more inflationary so you would expect that the four rate hike scenario would be more plausible yet even though bond markets are reflecting higher rates there has been I think some indications that we're seeing a little bit of a pushback even on that yes we've seen higher yields and there is a significant cap on the 20,000 level on the Dow if we were going to hit it I would have thought we would have hit it by now I think the fact that we haven't agree means as there could be a potential for a lot of tired long positions out there and I don't think it would take that much to suggest that potentially we could get a bit of a sell-off in the event of a disappointing number furthermore what we've seen here in bond markets in the 10-year note is that this is obviously the the big sell-off that we've seen since those peaks in July so the big sell-off in price is the big spike in yields since the middle of December in the wake of the Fed rate rise we've seen prices rebound and yields come off but I think there is potential for yields to come even lower if we get back above this line here that I've drawn on this 10-year chart here and this is the pullback line this is the pullback line from the uptrend that we broke earlier in the 2016 on in late 2016 when we broke below this uptrend line from the 2013 lows I think yields are probably going to find it a little bit difficult to get much below 2.2% on the 10-year and that would suggest that potentially we could see a move back to 2.6% certainly I think there's potential for higher yields I just don't think that we're probably there yet we've seen a bit of dollar weakness and I think that's born out in the dollar index and it's also in the rebound in the dollar index and I think it's quite notable that the rebound the sell-off in the dollar index that we've seen has come about as a direct result of the rebound in treasury prices as well I just wanted to add something in on stocks if you look the other thing that we've got now it's not for today but it's for probably about a week and a half next week on potential profit warnings in the week after when numbers start rolling out keep an eye out on earnings and guidance the higher US dollar could hit US corporate guidance and also watch out because yesterday Macy's put out a profit warning their stock took a 14% hit it wouldn't take much in the way of bad news to set or disappointment to send the markets hurtling lower when you see a big company like that take that kind of haircut on a profit warning sure but I mean I think that's in that's retailers in general I think Coles also reported a bit of a profit warning as well what I'm particularly looking at next week there's not so much retailers I think we pretty much acknowledge the fact that retailers have had a tough time it's banks yes that too the the the slope that's the sloping up in the yield curve has certainly helped bank profitability and I think that's one of the reasons why we've come up the way that we have over the course of the past few weeks banks are started to become more profitable in fact if you look at the footsie 350 bank index bank shares have been in an uptrend since the middle of last year and I think that that is likely to continue if the reflation trade and this is really what the recent rally in the past few weeks has been all about it's been about the reflation trade but also what we've seen this week is an improvement in some of the economic data not only in the US but also in China in Japan and here in the UK and a big question I think is when does that higher inflation start to choke off the recovery in that economic data what's the tipping point between the two we've seen the spike in the yields we've seen a little bit of coming off now over the course of the past few days and weeks in terms of yields the big question now I think really is you know where do yields go from here and I'm certainly looking at this this Bloomberg chart which I've got up in front of you it's the 10 year chart the 10 year yield chart you know is there a topping formation coming in here you know there's a big big level around about 225 I think on US treasuries so I'll be keeping an eye on that and obviously looking at the looking at the price chart as well and inverse to that what I also found quite interesting about this particular chart is how closely it mirrors iron ore that's interesting so iron ore looks a little bit soft and I think a large part of the reason we've seen the commodity rebound is because of the rebound in iron ore prices and the increase in consumption from countries like China and Japan if these two charts start to roll over they could you know that they could definitely pull the rest of the market lower with them I was only a couple things Michael yeah oh sorry I just wanted to mention personally I think and I suspect you agree with me that I think the the central banks are going to let inflation run particularly after all the years of deflation I don't think they're going to be in a hurry to go capping off that or capping off the recovery I'm also in the middle of the numbers come out perhaps we could just do our our forecast I'll go quick for kids I'm at 10,000 the negative two I still think the streets overly pessimistic on Canada jobs for the US 160 with a 20k upward revision I got a little bit ahead of myself yesterday on ADP payrolls and called 225 and got my head handed to me so I've brained myself back and I do think that we did I still think we got a bit of a release of pent up hiring demand in November I think we'll get a 20k upward revision but that seems to have petered out pretty quickly in December Michael I'm going 165 on non-farm payrolls I think despite the fact that we saw some very decent headline ISM numbers this week what I was struck by was the weak employment components of them the ADP in particular yesterday even though it showed you the big rise in services jobs of 169,000 there was actually a decline of 16,000 in manufacturing jobs and they tend to be the more higher wage jobs and that for me I think really sort of feeds into the average earnings narrative this this number here and I think this is the number that could actually drive where the dollar goes in December in the November numbers it actually posted a negative number of minus 0.1 now we are expecting a rebound on that back to 0.3 but it's the annual number that I'm particularly interested in that's expected to rise from 2.6 to 2.8 if that is anyway weak and the headline number on the non-farm payrolls is anywhere around 150 then I certainly think there's potential for a little bit of a sell-off in the dollar and I think you'll probably see that better best illustrated in Dolly N. Dolly N tends to be a fairly decent arbiter of direction in terms of dollar strength and weakness at the moment we're getting a little bit of light buying into the numbers now maybe that's an indicator maybe it isn't but let's not forget the key I think the key level for me is this series of lows through here around about 115-60 on the downside that will tell me whether or not that that will tell me whether or not the market has the legs to push the dollar lower on the top side again we've got resistance around 116.50 let's take that to one side on the euro dollar I'm particularly interested in in around about the 106.20 area around about here these peaks here so again a weak dollar number could push us through this series of highs through here keep an eye on that otherwise a strong number could push euro dollar lower I think there's potential for euro dollar and cable to squeeze higher on the back of a potentially weak dollar number I think the the long dollar position we've outlined it before it's a crowded trade and for me I think it wouldn't take much for us to see a little bit of a dollar sell-off into the end of the week and that in turn could actually cap the recent rally that we've seen this week in equity markets if we look at the UK the FTSE 100 we saw a very very big rise in the first day of this week similar sort of rise in the DAX but that struggled to be maintained over the past three days which suggests to me that further upside is probably fairly low conviction and it wouldn't take much to actually see a significant amount of profit taking start to take place as we head into the numbers is there anything else you want to sort of add to that in the last 30 seconds before we yeah we had a quick question here on the Dow yeah I think what happened at the end of the year was there was a lot of pent up demand for stocks that got that got pulled in and before the end of the year a lot of fund managers wanting to get caught with so much cash when the market was up a lot of individuals pouring money into equity funds that I think now that the year is over is drying up and that's the the demand for stocks come up and people would be looking for any excuse to take some profits here okay numbers are out okay 156 156 known farms week number 4.7 unemployment okay upward revision 26k we've got seven yeah 17 pretty much what we were looking at and November trade deficits widened out as wide so Canada employment 53,000 that's huge that 81,000 increase in employment is absolutely massive but average earnings look at average earnings Colin on on the dollar that's higher than expected that's why we're seeing the spike higher in the dollar 0.4 average earnings that's 2.9 percent annualized so going to keep an eye on 116 4045 on dollar yen to see whether or not we crack through that because I think that's you know obviously from a dollar point of view that's a fairly positive number the big question is do we have the legs to take it higher certainly the market wants to try and go higher and I think we could actually have a little bit of a crack higher I'm not sure though that we have the potential to do it and certainly it does appear to suggest that we don't have the legs to go higher and if they can't do it on this on that kind of news then they probably won't be able to yeah I mean I would say I would certainly argue that that's a decent average earnings number but it's only one number so if we can't push through on this then the then the the then the risk is clearly to the downside so I think I think probably what we're going to think it's peak to me yeah what I think we're probably going to do is we're going to try and we're going to try and go higher if we can't get through 116.5 on dollar yen then the potential is we'll probably trade between the lows that we saw earlier today and the peaks that we've seen thus far on on this move higher there's also a dollar CAD chart that I'd like to show you because you put that up that's a huge spike there because I think there's certainly potential here for dollar CAD I did a chart earlier on this chart here can you see this yeah bring up the put up the one minute chart I've got the the miniature it's just exploding right there's a big big chart point here on Canada just huge this this this trend line okay well I'll do the one minute chart but then let's take let's take let's take it out a little bit further because I think here look at this trend line from the 2014 lows that I've drawn in and now we're going to take it down to dailies and look where the 200 day moving averages so this line here um it's probably going to limit the downside on dollar CAD I think I've posted it on the chart forums earlier today the trend line support currently comes in at 131 20 so that's about 95 points below where we are now um so I think you could also use this line as a proxy for further oil price strength now break lower could further signal further Canada gains an oil price strength but ultimately the trend that we've been in since 2014 lows I think we could well see a test of this line yes it's definitely possible you know whether we even test that 200 week average yeah and I think it's exactly and I think it's gonna want to it's gonna want to test that line the question is how do we do that especially since that's a previous low as well so that's in around what 131 there it's 131 20 and the 200 day moving average is slightly below that is around 130 98 so between 131 and 131 20 obviously that is an upsloping trend line so this time next week it's going to be slightly higher with 131 25 131 30 as we head into next week but certainly I think that's a line ladies and gentlemen that's worth keeping an eye on because I think the initial test lower could provoke a bit of a bounce so if you're short dollar CAD that's probably going to be a decent area to probably take profit or potentially put a long position in perhaps we could take a look at the down now Michael yeah we can indeed let's have seen some questions coming up here about the Dow so let's take a look at that right this is the daily chart that we're currently looking at at the moment and I have to say it doesn't really inspire me too much this particular chart because it's not really been doing anything all week so let's look at the hourly chart so it's not doing too much off of the news because yeah I mean this is this is the hourly chart so let's go and look at let's look at five minutes I mean obviously that's a it's a decent number it's positive for the Dow certainly I think we'll have another crack higher towards this series of highs that we saw late last night potentially around about nineteen thousand nine hundred and forty nineteen thousand nine hundred but for me I think if we're going to break the twenty thousand level we need to do it soon because we've had yeah absolutely the longer we wait the more likely we're not going to yeah exactly because how you know how patient can you be Donald Trump's inauguration is in fourteen days time so the big question is can the current rally that we've seen since November the 8th carry on into the inauguration of the new president because ultimately president electors one thing he hasn't got his hands on the levers of power yet on the 20th of January he will and what will he do and that's when people start reacting what he actually does or doesn't do rather than speculating on on what he might do exactly you know and I think that for me I think is the key the key thing here looking at the Dow I'm looking at the S&P as well though they do tend to move rather independently of each other but again I think there's probably a better chance that we're going to test the bottom end of this range than break through the top end even though we are much closer to the top end on the S&P than we are on the Dow yeah I'm thinking we might see 19,000 on the Dow before we see 20,000 even though we're at 19,000 even despite from where we are well that's my prediction as well I actually updated that in the chart forum today the 20 20k level looks like a step too far I've failed you to test it this week could well precipitate a move back to the 19,000 level over the next month or so so for me the trade there is to leave your stop above 20,000 and look for a move down to 19 on a risk reward basis it's the trade you know you're taking a very small amount of risk relative to the reward so you know the Dow is overbought the big question is what's going to be the catalyst to take it higher and I'm not sure what that catalyst will be earning season starts next week maybe that's the catalyst to push it lower maybe it's the catalyst to push it higher certainly think the banks that we're getting next week Bank of America JP Morgan and Wells Fargo are going to be key you know will Wells Fargo be hit by the fact that the scandal of last year and the and the miss selling will they have to set aside more provisions in respect of litigation because obviously that was one that Wells Fargo was one of the biggest banks in the US domestic banks you know could that could there be a significant pushback on that so I think the next week or so will tell us a great deal as to whether or not we're going to push higher and through 20,000 on the Dow I still think we can probably go there in the longer term I just think that at the moment the market looks a little bit tired but we'll have to wait and see interesting the dolly ends back around the figure now also able to get through that 40 50 level so what does that mean for Euro dollar I think there's another good chance that we could probably test back to these 10620 level again certainly think there's potential for us to go back above 124 on dollar sterling though that we do have a significant resistance level on the 50 day moving average on cable which does make me a little bit cautious on that trading between 12320 30 and 124 sterling has underperformed it's a very very difficult trade to make at the moment I think it's trading in a range we've had decent economic data and we've had today's Mia Culpa from Andrew Haldane from the Bank of England who basically said that he felt that the Bank of England got it wrong with regards to their assessment of the effect on the UK economy pre and post-Brexit well no kidding but I said that on the 4th of August it's just a shame it's taken him five months to realize the same thing and he gets paid a lot more money than I do Euro sterling by the way I mean just been asked about the Dow again yeah I would agree with that indicators are failing to stay above certain levels above 19 suggest suggest the test up and failing settle above suggest more downside moves as I say I mean I think that just reiterates what Colin and myself have just said I think the downside risk is towards 19,000 I don't think it's probably going to go much below that but I think it needs to shake out a few stay-along positions before it can have another go at the 20,000 level I think that certainly seems to be the way of it if we look at Euro sterling here I'm still of the opinion that the bias remains to the downside on Euro sterling economic data in the UK continues to come in slightly ahead of expectations I think that's probably going to be more sterling positive certainly inflation expectations are higher in the UK than they are in the euro area and the recovery I think in inflationary pressures has been a direct result of a weaker currency both sterling and euro the euro is at multi-year lows against the dollar as is the pound and given the commodity prices are priced in dollars and the rebound that we've seen in oil prices in the last 12 months you've got to think that ultimately inflation is going to remain fairly well underpinned over the course of the next few months as the deflationary effects of the negative oil price starts to roll out of the numbers don't need to remind you that oil price is bottomed out pretty much 12 months ago and we can see that in this chart here January last year the low was $27 a barrel on Brent crude since then we've gone pretty much one way so that suggests to me that once this this negativity in oil prices drops out of the numbers which it will in January February March and April we will start to get further upward pressure on CPI now the big question for me is to see that some of the numbers already yeah we are exactly you're absolutely right but we'll continue to see it yeah and that you know and I think that that's that's my broader point we're going to continue to see that and we'll continue to see it while oil prices remain above this breakout level which we saw in the middle of December 53 dollars a barrel 53 dollars a barrel for me is the line in the sand in terms of further you know for potential downside while we're above 53 dollars a barrel there's potential for further upside towards 60 dollars a barrel or these peaks that we saw in 2015 around about 60 65 now this is Brent we're talking about here so 53 dollars a barrel on the downside if we go back below that then we'll drift back below 50 while above 53 then I think we're going to remain fairly well underpinned and I think this is where the proxy for dollar CAD comes in Canada strength I think will only be a byproduct of further oil strength obviously the the Canadian economy is going to be a factor into that but I think oil prices in the Canadian economy have a rather symbiotic relationship yes and on top of that what we've had lately was because the US dollar was so strong CAD has been lagging behind the oil price it's been it was depressed by the strength in the US dollar along with a lot of other currencies whereas oil kept on rallying so there is some there is some room for the Canadian dollar to rally just based on the US dollar pressure easing and it catching up to the gains that have been made by the oil price lately so it's it is a market that that's one of the more depressed ones out there with some upside CAD gold euro yen those were some of the most depressed markets with some room to rebound yeah we've seen a decent rebounding gold prices as well I'm a little bit surprised by that but I think there's potential for it to I think there's still potential for it to happen again it's a similar sort of story in WTI around about 51 dollars a barrel on the downside there the support level but again you know it's a similar sort of story to the Brent story the next target really is this series of highs through 2015 around about sixty sixty and a half sixty sixty dollars a barrel there seen a bit of a rebounding gold prices again that's on the back of a weaker dollar I think it's interesting to note that even though we saw a fairly decent dollar reaction to those wages numbers gold prices are still are only down ever so slightly on the day so that would suggest to me that while we've seen a decent rebound maybe there's potential for a little bit of further further gold strength and further dollar weakness but for me the 50-day moving average here again is going to be a key resistance level on gold prices and that's around about yeah I'm looking at golden thing we've had a nice move up off the bottom but we may consolidate between that Fibonacci level there and the and the 50-day average just in the short just over the next week or so while it digests some of these this big move up yeah I think you're right I think the problem with gold is I think there's a downside to it and the downside is around about 1100 and I think while we're above that we will remain susceptible to short squeezes having said that we are now starting to look a little bit overboard which suggests to me that we may run into a little bit of selling around about these sort of peaks that we saw here just below 1200 and that would suggest that potentially we could as you say trade between 1150 and 1200 for the next few days in the next few weeks okay ladies and gents does anyone have any other questions on any topics that we haven't covered or do you want us to clarify potentially anything that we've already covered let's have a quick look at the DAX while we're at it now this is an interesting chart this is something that I again this is something that I posted on the chart forums earlier today a bit of a level at 11670 why is that level important because it was the highs in August 2015 we've broken higher this week but we are struggling to since that initial push higher on the Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday that suggests to me a lack of conviction in terms of where we go to next having said that this could be a potential flag before we go higher as long as we don't take out this series of lows through here so let's draw that in so 11530 on the downside just being asked about silver I'll cover that in a minute so that looks like our DAX trading range for the time being 11530 on the downside 11600 on the top side pretty uninteresting over the course of the past few days maybe next week we'll give us some clarity on that silver um well what's happened to silver was there it's because gold's moved I don't know why that's moved there it is there it is I hope you've got deep pockets if you're trading silver that's all I can say it's something that I would still well clear of it's way too volatile for my taste but in a downtrend it's going to probably run into a little bit of resistance around about $17 or slightly below that we've got these series of highs through here which are going to cap it but overall it's going to be a little bit of a proxy for gold so if you get a little bit of gold weakness you're probably going to get a little bit of silver weakness but ultimately around about 15-1580 decent buying interest we did have a little bit of an overshoot in the middle of December but we've since recovered that but you know again it's going to be a significant proxy for what the dollar does and at the moment the dollar still while it's showing a little bit of weakness I think there is potential for it to move a little bit higher but not especially when you look at the amount of resistance that we've got through $17 if you look at these lows here and there and then these peaks here so if we do go higher it's going to struggle to get through $17.17 anything you want to elucidate on silver colline or did I pretty much cover it no I think you pretty much covered it okay for the DAX got some commentary on the DAX but yeah I mean I'm looking at the DAX and I can't see any reason to to do anything with it unless we come back around $11.530 and obviously the bigger level on that was the initial breakout level from earlier this year was around about $11.430 which was a series of lows through a year and obviously the big move that we saw at the beginning of December which pushed us into positive territory for the DAX for the first time in 2016 the DAX was in negative territory for the whole of 2016 until the last few few days and this move here is what took us up into positive territory no surprise when you consider how weak the euro was into the end of next year so I think what you've got to bear in mind with respect to the DAX is if the euro rebounds and goes back through 106 or 107 the DAX is going to find it very difficult to rally significantly above where it is now because ultimately German exporters will find their ability to generate profits impacted by the fact that the euro is rebounding so you need to to bear in mind that particular correlation okay any other questions ladies and gentlemen we just hit the 35 minute mark if um if there are no further things Michael sure we still have a lot of news on for the rest of the day as well we had trade balances out for Canada and the United States US was in line Canada was a little bit of a positive surprise at 10 o'clock eastern time this morning that's 3 p.m in London we have US factory orders street expecting a decline of 2.3 percent we have the final us durable goods orders and we also have the canada ivy purchasing managers report last month was 56 later today we have a number of sped speakers today and tomorrow including some talk from some of the new uh the new voters the the uh regional fed presidents that have uh have rotated into being voting members talking at 11 15 eastern time we've got Kaplan talking at 3 30 p.m eastern time master's talking tomorrow we have cash curry talking as well as Powell who's one of the permanent governors very often so we are going to get some fed speak over the next couple of days as well yeah obviously everybody's keeping an eye on which way are these guys thinking about um about rates the Kaplan this is his first time so people might be quite interested to see what they have to say evans is historically been from Chicago has historically been one of the most dovish members of the fed so it'll be particularly interesting to see does he stay in the dovish camp and where is he at and mr is speaking right now and she's just come out and said that uh she expects three rate rises this year it's a reasonable number but she also goes on to say that that number is on the steep side so it's steeper than the median because she's been more hawkish historically yeah so she is quite hawkish and she's actually said that her assessment is slightly steeper than the median which suggests to me that potentially maybe there's only going to be two so which is what i'm thinking yeah and the dollar's the dollar's rebounding again now notice cable's around 123 30 dolly ends back around 116 50 so so maybe the dollar can't back up to about 130 to 10 off below near 131 80 so maybe we're going to get a move higher in the dollar on the back of those comments by mr thank you very much for that so we'll have to see how the the market reacts to to three personally i still think three is overstating it but we'll we'll we'll see we'll see how it plays out i do too and what will be interesting on that michael is i think we're going to see the a lot of volatility in and around march because nobody's going to uh nobody's no i mean nobody's expecting a rehike at the uh january i guess it's february first is the decision but uh in that late february timeframe when people try to sort out are we going to get a hike in march which means four or are they going to pass which probably means two i don't think we're going to get one in march and i think that's why the dollar sold off this week because of the conflicted um nature of the fed minutes earlier this week so it's very just personally i'm thinking the next rate hike comes in june yeah i would agree with that which worries me because we never agree well even if you went in june you have the possibility for three rate hikes because you could go in september but i might call for the my thinking this year is june and december yeah okay well i wouldn't i wouldn't argue with that um so there's there's the first thing in about three years mate you and i are starting to agree on stuff it's true it's very true and um yeah i just have a hard time seeing four four okay well i think i think unless anyone's got anything else they want to add i'm going to wrap this up and i'd like to thank you all for um attending today we do have a monday webinar which is every monday at 12 15 which is just me where i have a look at the week ahead otherwise we will both colin and i will see you at the same time next month for the next known farm payrolls webinar thanks for listening and um uh have a good weekend thanks have a great day trading everyone