 One of the more fun events on the PGA tour calendar is coming up this weekend is the waste management Phoenix open We got rowdy crowds. We got people shotgun and beers during putts. It's gonna be a delight We're gonna break things down from a PGA DFS perspective Let's you know our favorite golfers for this week and our general thoughts on this week's event based on the salaries over at Fanduld.com welcome on into the heat check fantasy podcast powered by Numberfire that's right here on the fan dual podcast network in number fire calm My name is Jim saw this. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as always by branding Gadoula he is the managing editor of number fire calm and Brandon. I'm delighted you are here today because You're probably gonna quit within the next five minutes. So glad you're here now. How are you doing today? Well, I'm gonna quit because I'm gonna embarrass you not like oh, I'm gonna embarrass this guy away but so I went through our player picks from last week and Here are the finishes of the guys you recommended Patrick can't wait for it. Sheamus power ninth Tom Hoagie Got himself a little trophy Joel Damon sixth Pat Perez ninth and then Alex Smalling is the guy but Five out of the six dudes in your player picks from last week. We're top ten You I had a good head-to-head lineup. My bobble hat lineup was good you took a Boba Fett flamethrower to it and obliterated me and I Although I am upset that this happened because I'd like to win the bobble hat because I lost last year I think no, I won. Yeah, I won bobble hat. I lost it. I'd like to win the bobble hat I am happy for you for building a good lineup and having good player picks So I'm conflicted yet. I'm here to give you the Adelaide. She would not give yourself So that's why you're gonna quicks. You're probably should be embarrassed, but I said good things about you. Well, thank you Unfortunately, I thought for most of the weekend that sheamus power was gonna get It was gonna double bad. Yeah, cuz like you were gonna obliterate me in the bobble hat My guy who I had like talked up and made my player pick like 16 times is gonna win And I wasn't gonna be on him and you were gonna be on him. So that made it a lot worse and if if that had happened I Might have quit so I guess like at least there's that consolation Yeah, I mean look it pebble is Look we saw a lot of non professional golf and I get the point of it, but Pebble's always got like this weird sort of I Actually usually perform because I hit Daniel burger last year here. I Feel like going into it. I don't have the best read, but I feel like maybe this is actually one of my better events Probably helps like with the The course rotation the 54 hole cut stuff like that Somehow a little bit less volatile because you get more guaranteed holes But also way more ball or you know way more volatile because the scoring is low. So I mean look I appreciate it Hopefully someone out there. I had some some good lineups based on both of our picks last week Yeah, good week last week, which means we have to run it back this week with the waste management Phoenix open, of course The rowdiest PGA tour event fans fully back for this year as well not only that but also Sports betting is live in Arizona. So we've got an extra layer Going on up there. We'll break down the waste management Phoenix open from a DFS perspective Get you set for that in just one second at first the 2021 NFL season coming to an end as the Los Angeles Rams take on the Cincinnati Bengals and so far stadium Fandall is giving you a chance to get in on the action with a massive daily fantasy contest There are over three million dollars worth of prizes to be had and all you do at a fandall.com and create your daily Fantasy lineups comprised of players and the Bengals and the Rams You can sit back watch your players compete and win more with fandall eligibility districts is applied go to fandall.com or download the fandall app for more details we of course love our breakdown of The Super Bowl from a single game perspective coming up on Thursday That is at 10 a.m. On the fandall YouTube page Brandon. I will also be live on a Friday at 4 With Jessica gridiron breaking down our thoughts on some props to Super Bowl 56 doing our game one more time I went three for three during the conference championships. So I got you back there at least not giving you any for any props We don't do we don't do props on this show anymore. I think the Boba how is actually just payback for that. So there is that We will also have a live edition of covering the spread our betting show Wednesday at 6 p.m. With our old pal JG Zachary's and he'll be there doctor Ed Feng of course So my coast over covering the spread and Ryan Williams breaking down our favorite props and our overall betting thoughts on Super Bowl 56 so we are live on the fandall YouTube page Wednesday at 6 p.m. Thursday at 10 a.m. Friday at 4 p.m. To get you set for everything you need to know for Super Bowl 56 and of course make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread for the betting side of things But also to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed for PGA NASCAR NFL UFC NBA NHL is back now too from their all-star break So a lot of good stuff to make sure you are subscribed the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed All right, let's break down TPC Scottsdale the stadium course and it is 7261 yards in a par 71 there are a hundred and 32 golfers in the field the top 65 plus ties Make the cut after the first two rounds. I'm glad it's back 65 excited Aaron Rye at 60 tied for 64th last week Didn't matter I was we were at an Airbnb and I was in a hot tub And I kept checking my phone to see if he was gonna see he needed a par on 18 To to make the cut any mini bogey did and I'm glad I had the hot tub because otherwise I'd have been distraught So glad we're back to 65 for this week out of TPC Scottsdale. Thank goodness that top 60 thing did actually make a big difference I was very sad. Anyway, yeah hot tub can get you through a lot It it was necessary, I'll tell I'll say that that that's for sure if it were not there Depend of rough day, man rough day for sure Brandon. We have a lot of data on TPC Scottsdale We know the weird intricacies from the fan perspective, but also interesting course in general if you disregard that So what do you know about TPC Scottsdale? And what does it tell us for our key stats for this week? Yeah, so the average green size here is a nice 7,069 square feet on average Which is about a hundred twenty percent of the the PGA tour average But even though we have large greens they tend to play firm So it's not we're not gonna see just the darts thrown that we've seen over the swing season And those greens are oversee their Bermuda, so they're not gonna play like true Bermuda really so for this week I'm actually looking just that overall putting rather than Bermuda putting that's the way that I want to play it About average in terms of green speed on the stimp. I haven't been getting stymeter readings for for the past few weeks Which is bothersome to me, but You know They're gonna play average But actually one thing that we should note is that a data golf shows that this is a pretty easy place to put They could they have this tool now where it shows the difficulty of picking up strokes gained Based on the course and this is one of the easier places to put so That's gonna Kind of bring some of our old heat check favorites into play for me They're gonna play baby. They already play because with the easy putting The low scores the pass five winning scores have been all at least 17 under Passive cut lines all at least one under we're gonna need birdies. We don't need as much putting we need ball striking That is basically, you know the heat check green light For us so, you know, that's kind of what what I'm leaning toward this week And one thing I will note before I list off all my key stats is that once again data golf has a tool for this Because they have tool for just about everything Course history here is very predictive. So golfers who play well here typically play well here You know year-to-year this course trails only YLI in Augusta in terms of predictiveness So this is actually one of the few weeks where I'm gonna be using course history as one of my key stats That will be last but that is something to know Patrick can I has not played here before I think with you like the altitude with the crowds with the greens playing the way that they do That gives some credence to having Course history be a key stat So my key stats for this week are gonna be stroke skin approach stroke skin off the tee par five scoring birdie or better rate and some course history sprinkled in there It also does make sense to I mean like you look at the the where guys have finished recently and like you can see There's typically a lot of overlap and like guys who do well tend to do well consistently and it's not always like Stud stud studs like bubble Watson I think it's probably gonna be like one of the main guys who comes up in that discussion We'll talk about him in the course history section But like it does take a different kind of mindset to feast here than it would at you know A place like the farmers and stuff like that. So I think it's very interesting That course history matters a bit more this week I'm not gonna cross off guys who have not played here, etc. Etc. Especially if I'm like okay with like their general mindset and stuff like that But it is worth keeping in mind that it's a pretty serious deviation from where we usually at so with that said Let's dive into that course history and talk about guys who have done well here in the past including last year's winner Brooks Kepka $11,200 he rallied from Coming behind on Sunday to win that event last year. Kepka is always Volatile always kind of tough to read. It does seem like though His kind of event. So let's have a Brooks Kepka here at 11 to and what you see with him in the past here at TPC Scottsdale Yeah, so if you're a two-time winner, you're probably getting talked up in past history And that's almost always the true and you're the defending champ and when it's at a course again Which is one of the more predictive in terms of past history. I mean, we just had to talk Brooks here I'm gonna go one here in 2015 as well in addition to his win last year And his he returned to Phoenix last year. He hadn't played here since 2017 but came back and won I'm so as a comeback and in multiple ways there. I'm in between His victories he made both cuts while finishing outside the top 40 So he's either been you know winning or outside the top 40 But still making the cut and one thing that I'm trying to track which is always hard to track is like motivation levels Kepka like a motivated Kepka is a different Brooks Kepka and he made it pretty clear this offseason or the swing season I should say there's really no offseason that he's been focused on his game that he's like we haven't he hasn't even begun to peek And when he does peek all of Philadelphia will know but um, you know Kepka It's an always sunny joke Kepka most recently though miss the cut at the farmers He was 28th at the tournament champions in a field of 38. He was ninth out of 20 at the hero war challenge The recent form doesn't really fit with the fact that he said he's you know locked in that we were gonna see the best from him All we've really seen from Brooks in 2022 so far as a die job In haircut, but he sometimes wish we had not seen that. Yeah Do you express yourself Brooks do whatever you need? But there's a there's a lot of money for grabs for being talked about and I think that maybe that has something I was thinking on mine. Yeah, I was like good for Brooks If he just wants to have the blonde hair and the and the buzz cut that's good for Brooks, too I it's not a judgment. My hair is getting very long as we speak but like The bigger point is like I'm not seeing enough to make like Brooks a strong priority Despite the two wins. So where are you with Brooks this week? I think that if you look back at like Let's look back at other events where he conceivably could have had motivation Because he has not gained more than three strokes total on the field since the open and obviously like motivation side there, but since then If I'm looking for an event that may have been predictive in terms of like, okay He'll definitely try here. I'm not really seeing one like the Shriners He typically has tried pretty hard at because of the nature of that event He was at negative four strokes game total in that event did gain 1.4 off the tee but lost 1.9 approach. So Even in events where he conceivably could have had motivation He was trying to make, you know, the advance in the FedEx help playoffs didn't couldn't quite do that Even in events where he had motivation the output wasn't really there. So I'm still a bit wary and Like I know that like there's that fear of like, okay, he could burn me But I think I'm okay with that just because like even in spots where I would like if I were marking down Like just a binary yes or no motivation for Brooks. I would have put yes. There it was the scoring and the Performance wasn't there. I think that's what kind of keeps me lower on him personally Is that that worry that he hasn't done well in events where I would have Expected him to try pretty hard Yeah, and I think that If we're gonna play and I did this strategically there's another golfer with multiple wins at TPC Scottsdale at a somewhat similar salary with a lot fewer question marks and that's Hadecky I Don't think even game theory would get me to put Brooks over Hadecky for this week So, you know, Hadecky might be chalky, but we have John wrong. We have JT. Can't lay Hovland who's golfing. Well, I can't imagine that Brooks is The best play despite, you know Like we're gonna get some other studs with lower popularity numbers than they should have Yeah, I'm probably just gonna be out on Brooks. I'd rather bet As always, I would rather bet Brooks than play him in a DFS lineup. Yeah, I think that that's the right way to play things here Okay, so I'm a Bubba Watson. He seems to just love this course and he has for a very long time this would be the 13th time Bubba has played this event and for those previous trips have been top five finishes and Importantly, some of those were recent. He was fourth in 2019 third in 2020 He gained 11.2 and 7.3 strokes T degree in those events last year Bubba finished 22nd, but he gained 5.2 T degree. This gave some back on the greens, which is not necessarily unexpected I guess Bubba Had a super long layoff. He hadn't played at all since the Northern Trust before last week came back for the Saudi International and finished second So that alleviates the form concern because he did play well there against a very tough field But now traveling a lot of travel here for Bubba He's tend to Where are you out with him this week given that we do want to bump out the value of course history? He's been very very good at this course in the past Yeah, so he's mostly well, I won't say mostly but the primary factor that gets me in on Bubba is The course history but outside of that. It's really not egregious The the driving's there and even though the other three stats and strokes gained are below average They're not abysmal and really Bubba Watson and Brooks Kepka are the two golfers who come to mind Yeah, for whom I rule out data And it comes down to course fit or motivation or anything like that. So for me even though we can nitpick Bubba from a Statistical standpoint right now. It's Bubba's got his specific style of play And if he is going to be able to go to a course where he's comfortable and play his style That's really it's really appealing So I think that Bob is very much in play I tend to Which opens up a larger conversation of roster construction, which we can get to throughout the show because you know spoiler alert we have John Rom in the field at 12-1 and John Rom, you know very good, but also has good history at this course. So correct He's gonna be in a lot of my lineups. Let's say That makes it Yeah, it's gonna be press it's gonna be like a difficult conversation from there Is do you take value in a really top-heavy field or do you try to play Rom with some balance there? In a balanced lineup someone like Bubba or Corey Connors is really appealing But if you're trying to gem in Rom and any number like Rom and Hideki, which would be an awesome start I don't know if the value is quite there to bank on this week So I think that is always going to be surrounding Bubba for me with the conversation But I do think that Bubba I'm gonna rule out the the recent stats and feel pretty good with him in a vacuum Where are you out on him relative to what I think is a pretty good tier in that like low 10,000 range Because we do have our boy our darling son Sheamus Sheamus powers at 10-5 We have Matt Fitzpatrick coming off a six-place finish last week. He's 10-4 We got Abraham answer in the babe is 10-3. We have Corey Connors at 10-1. You alluded to him Taylor Gooch is 10,000 It's a ball striking course which kind of says Just go Corey Connors and don't look back where does Bubba grade out relative to those guys after you toss out the stats and Embrace the fact that he could do well here So he's gonna be second for me or sorry at least sorry, sorry Connors is gonna be first. So yeah, I was gonna say second the best cuz Connors is the guy who jumps out to me I would even throw a Russell Henley in there at 99. We want ball striking. He's got that Sheamus and then probably Bubba. Yeah, I'd have I would have a very hard time wrecking Bubba ahead of either Connors or Sheamus Fitzpatrick I could be okay putting Bubba above him just because ball striking is not like his forte necessarily So I think for this event I go Bubba over Fitzpatrick, but I think we're on the same page there where Connors Empower kind of the standouts in that range and I think that that does influence the way We may want to build rosters. We'll talk about later on the first. Let's have a Ricky Fowler He's $9,500 Fowler has played well here in the past. We also know The recent stuff is tricky. So talk me through Ricky Fowler and the complexities and trying to analyze him right now Yeah, so he's flashed recently at times But if you go back through the event log, it's mostly missed cuts and I like to look past missed cuts and look at the stroke skiing data, but You know, you don't you still don't want to see missed cuts ever because that is one of the quantum the Unquantifiable things that we can talk about with, you know, if our golfer is missing cuts but his has good data does he really know that he's got the good data because He's just you may tweak when you may not need to That or just, you know confidence like you can lose confidence in a golf swing anything like that But in 2022 he missed the cut at the farmers and the American Express Which did come from lost strokes putting which is actually a lot more typical of Ricky Fowler Now that it has been historically. He's his putting has actually gotten worse, which is Definitely noteworthy probably as he's working on a swing trying to get the ball striking back the putting seems to be lagging a bit, but Historically, he's played well at TPC Scott still Probably again, and there's a lot of subjectiveness to this week Probably feeds off the crowd because he's a fan favorite one here in 2019 after finishing 11th 4th and 2nd In the past two years though, he's 37th and missed the cut But he has gained with his irons and seven straight events almost always puts well on these particular greens So really the short game has been elusive for you. That's led to a lot of bad results The irons are there though. Are you tempted by the Rick for a salary of 9,500? but I think the tough part for me is I can get the upsides of Ricky, which is The courts history without using him in this range like Max Homa is $9,500. He has better ball striking data also has done well at this course. I can get behind that Luke List has not been like amazing here, but he's had some decent results has much much much much much better ball striking Like I feel like I can get the upsides of Ricky without using Ricky The other guys in this range So I feel like I would need to be in this range a lot to use Fowler And I don't think I want to be in this range a lot like I think I want to Be in like the value range or be above him more often than I'm actually at Ricky and if I'm in this range I'm going to look list every time So I think that's the hang up for me is even if I like Like if I take away the names and just look for Areas I can get positives. I can get the same positive for Ricky without the downsides. I guess is kind of my hang up here Yeah, I mean I'd rank him at least behind List and homeless specifically might even at the salary rank him behind Joel Damon and use that say I agree get up a little bit So I'm probably not getting to Ricky who I haven't dug into I haven't tracked his popularity numbers like I used to But with with the course history being what it is with there being some glimmers I think will be pretty popular in this range So I'm probably out on Ricky all things considered because like you said probably gonna be in this range a ton Although, I don't know what we're defining as value because I'm probably gonna try to build my head to head lineup against you Without anyone in the 8,000 range Okay, 8,000 all maybe Aaron wise Now Aaron wise is the first guy putting the Baba line up First let let you know over John Robb Well, yeah, like if I'm considering Salary which I have to I mean Aaron wise at $1,300 under salary or John Robb Yeah, yeah, I'll talk here about Gary Woodlands He is 9,000 former winner TPC Scottsdale the win for woodland came back in 2018 Gained 11.7 strokes to green and 7.6 an approach Since then he has been a 7th a 40th and then missed cut last year Woodland looking recently is pretty mixed He has missed four out of six cuts and started the swing season But he was close to the number on a lot of those He was ninth at the CJ Cup in one of the events he did well I guess there was no cut there But he gained 2.8 an approach across three measured arounds the farmers He lost 1.1 off the tee and three around the green So woodland is flawed But he has a good history not the worst form on the planet at $9,000 Is there enough there for you to consider Gary Woodland from the course history narrative here? Would you consider someone in my loves? Someone that I would like Is he in your loves I have I've not looked See I fill out my stuff and then don't go back to your loves again until we're actually going through the loves Yeah, because I was chill minded in the last second but So part of the reason that I'm Trying to like I scroll down now and I saw that we have an overlap for personally. I wasn't expecting to overlap on this Is great uh I didn't think he'd be on sand birds as much as I am. I'm very happy. I think the salaries a bit low Um, okay, good and he he fits what or he fits well with rom relative I called dibs on him making him a win pick by the way I think whoever gets uh, whoever wins the the head to head gets the to decide that but no, no, no, no We can overlap We can't I know that's the hey, it's a change It's working out because usually I'd have to pivot Um all over the place on this week, but yeah, I mean for woodland. I'll talk more about him later, but it's You're banking on a return to form at a course where he's familiar and has played well and like you said there are glimmers Right. It's not flawless, but you take someone like that put him in a course where he's done well um, I think there's a lot to like again What I was initially going to say is like it depends on how you define the value Because I really don't want to go much lower than Aaron wise this week I just don't feel confident in any of these options because uh We got we got a pretty tough cut with a lot of golfers who should probably make the cut at the top doesn't leave a whole lot so on the probability of rostering someone like an emilliano grillo is Like at 8 000 he's going to open up a lot, but These cut probabilities go down a ton that really affects your lineup. So yeah, I think woodland if we're going to like Play the course history narrative and like bump up guys. I would say woodland is the guy I'm most like Receptive to rostering in part based on his course history followed by bubba number two I'd say those are the two guys I bump up most considerably in part because like kadecki's kind of in a good range that I like a lot and I might not be in that Range a whole lot So I think that that's kind of why for me the guys if we're talking about like course history guys are most likely to Use as a result that would for me would be woodland one bubba two I'm cool with that. Okay, cool So speaking of kadecki, let's move down to current form because not only is kadecki a two-time winner at this event He's been playing pretty well recently. So kadecki matzi. I'm 11,500 What are you seeing with him both recently and at this event? What am I not seeing with him is the probably the better question Bad play man. You're not seeing bad play. There you go. Um, there we go yeah, so Look, I talked I talked about brooks and uh event form or course form because The current form conversation Is definitely there for kadecki. So I figured I'd just go this route but Matsuyama has won two of his past four starts you won the zozo and the sony open He was 30th at the farmers when he lost strokes putting 12th at the tournament of champions when he lost strokes putting His putting still can be an issue at times, but the ball striking is there. He said that he's playing freer Now that he's you know gotten the wins And he like once he won the master he basically was like Problems that that gives like creating select people like oh this guy doesn't have winning mentality. I'm like That's it's not like don't don't feed the trolls Wait, how's that? How does that work? I don't know. I just get mad when they apply to people. I like that's what It is hard to win. I know a golf tournament. I know But I want people to be gentle to Tony Finao mostly Be gentle my boy So matsuyama historically putz fine at at tpc scott still he really stripes the irons down That's what you expect. He's averaged 1.4 strokes from approach per round at this course, which is phenomenal I love hideki this week I have nothing bad to say about him The issue is just can I play hideki in lineups with rom? Or am I gonna have Not enough salary for former golfers kind of leaning toward Not being able to do this and that's why sam burns has a lot more appeal Because that 700 goes a long way. So what are your thoughts on that? I agree that and that's part of the issue that I have here is another thing is Hideki would probably not be the first guy I'd go to if I were in this range. We can talk about that in a second Uh versus can't lay Yeah, I'll take that Really? Yeah Surprised by this. Why can't he's never played here? Um, okay he Could not convert last week, which is not like something I usually say but When you combine the fact that hideki's playing the way that he is and that that uh, can't he's not played in this environment I think that I think that it's basically underrating what hideki is doing and now entering I'm a very comfortable situation for him. So I would take that they had to hand go points Okay, so I can't lay her because you always be gonna head to head. So it's only a only place I can beat you But yeah, okay, so I have can't lay you have hideki. I'll take that Let's talk about jordan spieth uh because the current form very noteworthy here we talked about him in a negative sense of the current form section like two weeks ago and It was justified because he had been struggling. He had gone Back to losing strokes in both the ball striking categories and it made him super tough to trust I did use him over his alataurus once and I regretted that But then he went bananas at the pebble beach pro am he rallied over the weekend He wound up finishing second behind tom hoagie in the two measured rounds for spieth at pebble beach He gained 5.8 strokes an approach in 1.3 off the tee That is awesome and puts him back in the conversation especially because last year at the waste management spieth finished fourth He actually was in worse form then than he's in right now So We do the course history narrative here. We did see him perk up in the current form discussion last week Is that enough for you to be interested in spieth or to see if the presence of hideki here the presence of can't lay Make it where you are okay Not speculating on the guy who does have bad play in the very recent past It's So it's just one of the situations where I don't have really anything against spieth. It's just I would rather play other options this week Looking at things more. I should not have taken the hideki can't lay bet I was just on a hideki roll. But uh, you know, what are you gonna do? Were you on a high decky? Yeah For sure Now with spieth He's he's getting close. Uh, we're seeing good iron play from him Over the past year My data which accounts for field strength and recency. So I wait your recent rounds more than rounds a year ago I'm in the 73rd percentile in this field With the irons but 67th off the tee and if you look at things Off the tee that's usually where you if you're if you're backing spieth whether in dfs or you know from from bedding standpoint When he's got driver in his hand, that's whenever you're really worried But it's thought has been pretty good. Um, so you gotta like that. So Again, I can't really talk to anyone out of spieth I'm just gonna look to hideki can't lay I want to say daniel burger, but he withdrew with a back injury Last week and I liked him last week. I would like him this week if I knew he was healthy Um But spieth I think is by default going to be like third in the 11,000 range and I can't I can't build around $311,000 golfers because I still got I still got it wrong Where would you go spieth relative to zander schofflee at 11 for somewhere to above a worry is a travel issue It is in his range of like considerations But he's 11 for would you put schofflee above spieth or does it not matter because you're not going to be here enough for it to To care. Um, it doesn't particularly matter. Um, zander's been a little bit better here Now these two guys actually last year I think they were the final pairing if i'm not mistaken. Um, I I try my best to to remember things like this, but I Um, you know pat mayo in terms of just recalling random golf events from past years No, it I move on to the next thing. I can't I can't dwell on stuff I just don't have a good memory. Um for stuff like that, but Um, I it's a really to answer your question. It's not going to matter. Um, But I think I'd probably go with spieth over zander this week I'll probably go zander, but it's not by a wide margin and I think that they're both behind hedecky and cantley for me So let's move to some lower salary guys. Uh, we're interesting Denny mccarthy is 8 6 now brain and I was kind of surprised to see him on this list because we're like Hey, it's all about the ball striking this week and you drop a denny mccarthy on me So talk me through this. Is there enough here for us to actually like mccarthy or is that obligation? Well, I mean if you're looking for value golfers in a field is you know, as deep as this It's not the best field we've ever had, but it's a pretty strong field If you're looking for value golfers with good form sometimes you're limited. Um McCarthy does fit though And if you look at the leaderboard last week, yeah, not a whole lot of great names, but he was t12 And he did so as expected with poor iron playing good putting but it was across just two shawling grounds at pebble At the american express he rode the putter once again to a t6 finish If you want someone who's gonna, you know pick up a ton of shots with his irons, you got to look elsewhere, but This is who denny mccarthy is He knows how to play his game and playing that same game is getting him into good position So I think that there's some appeal there These are large greens. I know that we're still prioritizing ball striking, but Overall I think that there's appeal from mccarthy at 86 there would be more appeal if I felt like I needed to If there was more upside from any golfer in the 8,000 range and I feel like it's just air and wise um, you know McCarthy has six top 17 finishes and 10 starts this season Like I don't really I don't want to discount him But I'm having a hard time And it's not just mccarthy. It's not just that he's a putter and not a ball striker It's just it's hard finding upside from anyone in this range. So that's where I am with mccarthy And presumably I didn't sell you on him either Yeah, so I would say like this like we talk about archetypes. We want to target at certain courses Those are tweaks from the baseline the baseline should always be Who is the best golfer and like your numbers measure that by looking at strokes gain relative to the field It doesn't matter how you get there. It matters if you get there Like if we're talking about okay, we're selling off for ball striking. That means we're tweaking things X percent x is not a hundred percent We are not looking exclusively for ball strikers. We want the best golfers While we wait more heavily towards ball striking than we usually may I think that's an important caveat to say We're like we shouldn't cross off them like Danny mccarthy was objectively is a good golfer No matter how he gets there I just think that I can get to different dudes down there who for who may fit better and are not like totally off the rails in other areas, so Troy merit. I like Troy merit. I think he's kind of interesting. He is 86 I think the exact same salary I believe As mccarthy, I could potentially go there I can bump up for some other guys who are going to get me some birdies In other fashions, maybe more predictive fashions So on the whole Someone like Danny mccarthy is a good option for this week because he's a good golfer who gets the job done regardless of how he does it I want to make that point very clear I just don't think that's quite enough to overcome some other guys in this ring So on the whole the thought process is correct and I'm glad that you brought him up But I think for this specific week. I've got some other guys. I like to Yeah, I agree I I'm gonna limit my exposure to golfers with an eight in front of their salary as I mentioned But as always in my helper on number fire.com Which you can check out It's a it's a website I do have, you know, five golfers in this range just because that's how I structure the piece McCarthy's not one of them, but I think he's in the conversation So it's just again. It comes down to what you're looking for if you if you think that this week You got to have cantile you got to have rom and hideki or something like that and just going to rotate into values I wouldn't cross off McCarthy. I agree if you are down there enough. He's in that consideration I just don't want to be down there too much. I think that's uh, the right way to phrase things there. Okay Let's uh, get out the drool buckets talk about luke list in the current form section because our boy is back Coming off of victory. He is just 13,600. Oh, sorry 9,600. I read it wrong Because I assumed he did properly salaried. Sorry 9600 dollars for luke list. He is of course as you hopefully know coming off a win at the farmers Gain a 3.7 strokes putting across the three measure rounds Probably not gonna happen again Might might be an outlier who can say but list did gain 7.4 strokes t-degree in that week Gained 5.4 an approach again across three measured rounds And it puts the list up to seven and strokes me off the t 19th and approach across the past 50 rounds according to fantasy national He is also fourth and birdies are better gained and that does include his hideous putting But does not account for the fact that he could have the bottom fall out and go You know get a triple bogey, but like He can get birdies and we won't birdies for a dfs. So The puddings probably not gonna be great, but I am right back on him again at 9600 dollars this week. What about you and luke list? Uh, I love him. He's one of my loves. I could talk more about him later or now. Um Are we getting over confident? That's the one question I have so No, because the salary is still low. Okay. It's still reasonable. Um, the ball striking is very very good And these are easy to put on greens I will say Aaron wise lost 10.2 strokes putting here last year in four rounds Ryan Moore in two rounds lost 7.6. So it is possible um Aaron unwise for my uh future uh adoration um So it's possible that you know, as you said the bottom can fall out But if he's baseline with the putter on these easy to put on greens Uh, he's done well here in the past. I don't really think that we talk ourselves out of luke list It just comes down to I might only be able to roster guys at like 91 92 And 400 I don't have 400 like it sounds like it kind of I'd rather get up to luke list than someone at 91 But it's really hard to do this week if you're prioritizing john rom Can't land a decky I think that like the thought process you have to go through is like the two v twos where you're going like luke list and like troy mary denny denny mccarthy versus Joel damon gary woodland I don't know if that works out but like somewhere around there Are you okay dipping down that 400 dollars and taking on the increased risk like is luke list worth that much more than Joel damon i say Yes, not out of disrespect damon who I love But because I think list is pretty freaking good so I think it's worth it. I it will be a tough decision for sure I think i'm a bit higher on the 8000 range than you may be but That's kind of where i'm at there uh with luke list and we'll talk more about him in the player picks But first let's get to bookmaker odds for this event. John rom is a favorite shocker He's plus seven fiftieth annual sports book dips down to justin thomas who had 12 to 1 victor hovlands and patrick cantley are 14 to 1 hedecky matziyama and jordan spieth check in At 16 to 1 zander shawfley is 20 to 1 uh before a teardrop after shawfley gets you brooks kepka scotty schaeffler and daniel berger rounding up the top group at 27 to 1 so we talked through Some of the studs but not john rom so let's have the rom discussion now What are you doing with john rom uh for cash games and then what are you doing with john rom for tournaments? uh locker room for cash games Be avoidant tournaments same thing with rom as usual. He's like 11 percent likely Not even like 10 and a half percent likely to miss the cut Are his win odds? his win odds his win odds are Uh, what do I have him at? I think 10.5 percent. They're almost higher than his odds to miss the cut. Basically Uh 10.4 And uh 10.2 to miss so yeah, um That might sound silly but The consistency is there. He's that much better than the rest of the field and he plays well here. So I think that Look you can fade Like fading a chalk in a sport as volatile as golf should make sense But with rom it doesn't Because his game is so good in every area That he's not like for he's not like a jt where he might put himself out of contention Um, he's gonna be lingering and I think that you just play rom and cash games and that you try to be overweight on him in tournaments I think that's kind of the way to play things for me as well. Um, probably 60 ish percent rom for me And by overweight we mean if you if you're playing 10 lineups And you think he'll be rostered overall and 40 percent and you play him on 60 percent of your lineups you're overweight relative to the field I would also say 40 percent is probably the better projection in terms of roster rate this week Usually I'll say like 40 to 40 4 or 43 I think 40 is probably more appropriate this week just because of the field. It's pretty good. Um, so like if you're at 60 probably okay, um If i'm not going rom I would probably go cantlay Or the other option is hyper balanced. Um Where I just skip over like the 11 000 range entirely and start like burns and load up on like that good 10 000 range Because if i'm not using rom I kind of am interested in having just a totally different roster construction entirely That's why I consider that but I think that I would probably just go cantlay first if i'm not going wrong personally Yeah, um, I'm probably being too low on cantlay for because he hasn't played here before. Um, I don't know if I have a similar demeanor to patrick cantlay, but I would like to think that I do Um, he seems very reserved and I don't think I would do well in this environment Um, so again, I'm just looking for anything that I can and that's just That's the only nitpick you can have with cantlay. So Okay, yeah, that's fair Okay, uh, which golfer's odds have shifted most since things opened yesterday Also, I'm not comparing myself to cantlay at all because he's a world-class athlete and doesn't really like Struggle with with playing to pick a basketball league. You know, that's kind of the same thing, right? That's true. Yeah, all right. You go off Yeah, with yeah, yeah solo rounds. You've made a par before you're the same thing Yeah, um, but no, I'm just saying like I get a similar vibe I don't know if like that energy is going to be better for him than like some of these lower Yeah, because like you maybe energy rounds ignore it or like, uh, drown out the the stuff Like he can do that way better than I can but like when he steps up To the gallery tee, I don't know if that's gonna like We'll probably like ace that twice this weekend, but whatever. Um, so would you ask me who other than Ron, uh, Oz movement, Oz movement. Oh, Oz movement. Cantlay. Uh, Haven't talked about him in a while. Um, Patrick Cantlay from 16 to 14 So my worries are not shared by the public apparently um, scottie schaeffler 29 to 27 Daniel burger 31 to 27. So I guess again My worries about his back Not shared by the public court conners 50 to 41 So my love for courier conners is shared With the public. Keith Mitchell 90 to 70 and Aaron wise 100 to 80. Are we overlooking schaeffler? He is uh, right beneath that like The speed hideki cantlay range. He's 11 000 Obviously make some birdies. Obviously good ball striking. Uh, where are you out on schaeffler? Um, I like him I want to like him. It's a matter of We can get some similar players with also good form at this course like I'm stressing the difference of like a few hundred between one golfer and the next but Schaeffler versus brooks Yeah, I think I'm taking brooks there. Um, schaeffler versus fiennale Maybe fiennale. Um, schaeffler versus burns and gun burns, you know Very often there And a name I haven't mentioned and actually won't I guess Because he's not one of my loves. I like web simpson this week at 10 seven. Yeah, web is a former winner here Great ball striker. I mean like obviously the off the tee stuff not as good But like the approach is always spectacular for web Uh, so I get that for sure getting he's getting healthier the results are trending up I almost made him A player love over sand burns I wonder what rom burns and web would get me 88 first three golfers That's not gonna cut it. No Robin burns works out. Well, though, I'll say that staring out right now, but I don't mind Uh, which lower salary golfers have odd seen out to you a place I will have to be if I want to do the rom burns lineup because rom is very high salary So the way I usually do this is golfers with a salary of 9 000 or lower And then there were like five who were shorter than 120 and then there were 23 at 120 to 1 So I was like, let me just check and see what pops if I if I up this to 95 or below Which I think is also relevant for what we're what we're talking about. Um max homa then 65 to 1 ricky fowler keith mitzel 70 to 1 Uh francesca molinari kevin kisner pat pares I'm at kutcher andrew putnam erin wise all 80 to 1 joel daemon gary woodland brandon grace 90 and then siewel kim keegan bradley cameron davis and lucas herbert 100 to 1 I honestly don't dislike Many of those names. I'm not going to be interested in molinari kisner or kutcher. I can say that for sure, but Mm-hmm This is another reason why I think Like rom and then burns your web and then you just linger around that 9 000 mark and you don't have to dip below it You can still put a really strong line up You can dip below it there and wise and then you have to do it again. He's on he's on the list He better be Well, I mentioned 80 he moved from 180. So that's got to be promising It's not the only thing that moved thinking about erin wise, uh, weather for this week the afternoon waves bolt days We'll have a smidge bit less wind to deal with. Uh, that's more noteworthy for like single round slays You're playing like a thursday on there friday only, uh, the full slate. We'll cancel that out there plus It is not going to be more than eight miles per hour either day So nothing too crazy for wind. There'll be a bit more wind saturday But nothing to the point where we need to factor in wind splits or anything We should be good to go. So with that said, let's dive into our player picks here for the waste Management phoenix open brin at the top end. Who are the studs you are looking at for this week on vandal? uh, john rom I mean, I need a full pitch. You got to convince me on john rom He's the best value in the field adjusted for salary according to my combo model I mean, I love it. It's not wrong. It's not wrong Um, arizona state roots plays well here Like I just again, I don't I there's As someone who's really like I put game theory first To the point that I do a lot of dumb stuff. Yeah, I don't really see it with rom like This is not a weak field and I think a couple years ago We had like brandon steele as like a de facto $12,000 golfer and it's like this is not the same thing. It's happened john rom. So I'm gonna play rom Um, lock him into our head to head every time he's in the field until he starts falling off He's gonna be in there. So that's where I'm with rom Yeah, rom is the second guy put in from a head to head again, erin wise first Got to get the top studs from there first secondary studs second But just so hard to get off him Even, you know with the high roster rates being what they are because he leads the field off the tee He leads the field and bernie's a better game the past 50 rounds. He's tenth in approach he has um, if you look at bermuda splits, which again, you're not because of The way that they play if you look at that, he has the best marks from bermuda among the guys of 11 at 11 5 or higher Overall putting marks very good for john rom finishes great finishes here have been great For a cash game. Yes overweight in tournaments. Let's move on. Who else you like in this upper range? uh Well, I have sam burns even Okay, um Great ball striking um Long off the tee again Like a bermuda specialist, which i'm not really factoring in for this week The the main question mark for burns and I don't want to gloss over this is He hasn't played this course very well He's in a lot better form now than he used to be but If He can't quite figure out t pc scott still We could end up being proven wrong on burns, but I think that's really the only thing standing in his way Mrs first two cuts here and then was 20 second last year, but he gained 10.9 strokes from putting sustainable so That is 1.2 an approach. He wasn't like a disaster He's gave me close to a disaster but like Lost off the tee lost with the wedges, but gained the 1.2 with the approach so matters So, I mean realistically, we could be looking at like missed cut missed cut 58th or something like that from burns here and that Is why it was close enough for me Kind of to have a coin flip conversation between burns and web simpson here. So yeah, i'm leaning burns, but I think web is very much in play as well Other point against burns is that he is not being I mean, he's also my player pick here He has not been great in two events since january 1st, but not a disaster So I think that that's why i'm not caring too much He's 18th in the in stroke scene off the tee 28th and approach 11th and birdies are better gained Adds a good over muted but also good overall from a putting perspective When he missed the cut of the farmers, he actually did gain 1.3 out the tee and 0.1 around the green across his one measured round Just lost an approach. Um I'm betting on that snapping back eventually just seems like he is a great way To be a bit more balanced after wrong with my second golfer and then rank him above So in this range, we've got web at 10 7 web's fine. Uh louis west hasen. I actually don't mind either at 10 6 but like I just think that burns is better than those guys I'm not opposed to web or west hasen but I just think that I prefer burns There are points against him. So like if you get the vibe that burns are very popular. Sure pivot to web That's totally fine. He's not as much of a firm Guy as we are with rob But I think outside of that. I'm gonna have a hard time talking myself out of him Sam burns not as as firm as john rom is what i'm hearing kind of weird A couple of accidental or purpose of linduendos. Anyway, uh mid-salaried options. Who else do you like there? Or who do you like there? I should say Um, I got russell henley knocking on the door of the 10 000 range But he's the second best and adjusted iron player over the past year with my adjustments 40th percentile puddings not anything to get worried about especially if these greens do play as easy As they typically can as forestry top 25s was runner-up in hawaii Uh is finished top 25 and six of seven starts to kick off this 2021 2022 pga tour season henley's great ball strike is amazing um I don't know. I was being of a concern. I think he makes a lot of sense I would just rather save 300 go down to luke list. Uh, but I do think the henley Is interesting. Let's say hypothetically hypothetically hypothetically not staring down a lineup right now You have 97 left List is already in there. Do you go to tom hoagie or do you reconfigure to get a russell henley? I reconfigure Unless I have to go below 88. I think okay I would so okay You would reason just again hypothetically. No, I would have to go below 88. So Hypothetical not my bobble hat lineup against you. Just asking hypothetically. Oh, yeah, look, look, look I'm not gonna sit here and say like absolutely I think that anyone who plays anyone below 8800 this week is doing it wrong Because some of those guys are gonna have good weeks. It's I think that's the line of demarcation If i'm using that phrase correctly where things bought things bought them out too much for me I don't see a whole lot of win upside there win juice, which is what we need. Um You don't want to play anyone who you think realistically can't win. So I think that erin wise could win. I think keith mitchell could win at 88. So That is really where i'm kind of stopping myself And I know it can feel like hey if this guy finishes like 10th Like that's fine, but I want to make sure that I think all of my guys can win Speaking of win juice Let's talk about luke list my first mid-range play because i'm not jumping off now Despite the fact we could have just cashed out our luke list love had been good We're still on here, baby. He's 18th and data golf's true strokes gained data over the past six months 26th and salary over at fan duel and the data golf number does account for the fact that he's a bad putter He's at negative 0.56 strokes gained per round putting in that time not great he's still luke list but The same is true for his birdies are better number. He ranks fourth in the field there Basically, you gotta hope he just doesn't give it all back on the greens even if the houston opened back in the fall He lost 5.8 strokes putting and still finished 11th. That's how good the ball striking has been So i'll give it a swipe once again, uh with the salary at $9600. I have no reason to stop. Um, It looks like he's your second mid-range guy too, right? Yes Sticking with it like it. Yeah He won the farmers With his tita green play. He's been finishing well with his tita green play He probably won't Gain more than two strokes putting this week. That's probably like his soft cap. I would I would kind of say Um, but that's enough and I know that i'm talking about I need people who can win He can win. He just showed that with a pretty solid putting performance His tita green game is so consistently good That all it takes is non terrible putting which is asking a lot from list. Yeah, again The data shows that these are easy Uh easy greens to put on and again list has been good at this event 30th 25th cut 26th over his past four Three missed cuts before that, but I think it's fair to adjust for like luke list being what he is now Yeah, uh, then what he was then Yeah, I think so too. So luke list to me just really hard to pass up Uh, my second mid sour guy is jill daemon. We've talked about him a couple times in passing Here is why we know his limitations as a putter as well But hey, you know care a little bit less about that this week Despite the putting he's still 19th in the field and birdies are better gained over the past 50 rounds Gets there with the ball striking 29th and strokes him off the tee 26th approach. I can nitpick him if I want but He's $9,200. I think that that is uh pretty attractive. So I am very in on jill daemon once again What are your thoughts on daemon here at $9,200? Um, love him. He's a an other to consider for me. He Realistically is more likely to be in my lineups than even russell henley who I listed But that comes down to salary not preference. I think henley's a fantastic play I think he's under salaried. He should be considered in like the low 10 10,000 range, but he's not For for me with daemon. It's a very similar case with liss Good ball striking The the teeterians there are just the putting you never know And while we're at it if we're going to talk about golfers of that archetype and in this salary range I'll throw out that I am somewhat into keegan brad the 91 uh I was curious who you were going to say there and it may be very nervous you said keegan I'll let you I'll let you have that one I know it's the right archetype, but I'm just a little nervous a little uncomfy. You can have him. You can have him What he's played here a ton Doesn't really Putt that poorly You can have him. That's fine. Uh, who do you like in the lower salary rate for this week? Um, I have gary woodland first Plenty of history here including that win in 2018 And again, it's it's banking on the form to continue trending up Uh, he's got good iron play at this course. He's got good iron player recently. He's been very average over the past Six months, but that's different than being bad And if you give me average with potential of ball striking at a course where he's done well That's the kind of recipe i'm looking for Yeah with woodland being average You can bank on that improving based on his long term track record based on his history at this course I think that makes a lot of sense. So I do like woodland at 9 000 not opposed to using him My top value is erin wise. Uh coming up miscut of the farmers But nothing concerning. He was fine there This is the guy who's definitely going to get some birdies, which I I love for this week You know shocker. You won't waste score points in fantasy Even with the bad putting for wise he's still third in birdies are better gain the past 50 rounds 29th off the t 39th an approach plus the putting has been a bit better recently. He's gained a forced rate events Um, he's gained in six of the past eight. I don't necessarily expect that to continue But hey, it's not a bad thing by any means He likely still has like the collapses like they're really really bad like you mentioned last year at this event Uh, those those events are still there, but Decreasing the odds that they occur is pretty huge for a guy at $800. That's why I like wise. What do you like about it? So miss the cut at the farmers in his first event back. I liked him then I I bet I'll I bet him to win Which might have been a little bit overconfident, but um We know what erin wise is over the past Like we know what erin wise can do for us. He's got upside And over the past year he leads all golfers with a salary of 9 000 or below in long-term form according to my data You gotta like that again We can talk about the very specific stats that matter, but if you get like Very good long-term form relative to your salary At a certain point. I think you just got to kind of trust that because these golfers are not necessarily thinking. Well One of the key stats is like par 5 scoring and my par 5 scoring is just kind of okay I'm not gonna have a shot if they're good golfers. They're good golfers in almost any situation Like you said, we're just really tweaking things from there. So erin wise. I think it's a great play I also like Keith Mitch will find at 88 as well Yeah, my second low salary guy is Troy merits. I'll talk to him before we're talking about McCarthy Merits big bugaboo is his chipping and I'm fine de-emphasizing that this week Which puts me on him here at $8600 merit does most of well. He's not great anywhere, but he's fine 63rd off the tee 56th in the approach 24th in all round putting 36th and birdies are better gains even with the chipping trouble. So Merits coming up fourth at pebble beach may catch some odds because result that but I wouldn't expect anything too crazy So I like merit at 86 What is your read on him Brandon? Uh, sorry, I'd fan share sports.com pulled up and he's not popping Um, but is anyone of concern popping? I Well, one thing is noteworthy at least John Raman does not have the most tags He is tied for second with Hideki and Sam Burns and Corey Connors, which all makes sense. Okay, but uh, Scotty Schaeffler Okay, he's out first. Um, is he lower salaryed on a different site? That shall not be named Percentage of the cap wise is actually a little bit pricey on Fandall interesting so Now on some yeah, so I don't think you're gonna get necessarily the uh The leverage with Schaeffler this week that you might have been seeking. Okay. That's fine. I'm okay going elsewhere That is totally okay by me. Let's finish up here with our win picks for this week We are picking two guys. We like based on their win odds over at Fandall sports book Brandon I called dibs on Sam Burns. He's 34. You can have as well if you want, but he's one of mine Who are you looking at for this week? I kind of think that john rums a fair bet at plus 750, but i'm not going to do that myself um I'm Oh, Sam Burns is 34 now Yeah, I like that That's an extra point. Um, i'm going Burns I mean, I i'm not going to go away from that. I think it's fine It's not it's not as it's fun, but uh, i'm doing it and then I'm gonna go Cory Connors as well Okay, Cory Connors right now is 41 to 1 And again, uh, as you mentioned Sam Burns is 34 to 1 Oh my second golfer In fact, it's just gonna be Hideki me No, no, no, no, I feel like Hideki's oh Hideki's gonna win. Okay Yeah So It's it's a tough it's a tough board because for me whenever the favorite is pretty fairly valued It doesn't it's not like oh John rums four to one So that's taken a lot and we're getting a lot of extra value on like these other names We're getting that this week The big issue i'm having there are two issues a I hate betting long shots. I hate it. I hate it. I hate it. I hate it to If we'd recorded yesterday, I could have gotten this guy a better number and I'm no longer getting that number It's an issue Tempted to go air and wise at 80 to 1 tempted What if I what if I give you 90 to what if I split the difference give me 90 to 1 for this No, no, you're trying to bait me into this. Don't do that I'd see right through you Okay So i'm not doing that because you talked me out of it now because you tried to get me to take him Because I try to be nice. Yeah, I'm not gonna fall for your web of Uh, so seat No um This is tough There's no what others in the same person I like Yeah, I know right so like honestly This is also similar discussions. I had with burns because I could have gotten a better number yesterday I've been giving Patrick can't lay at 14 to 1 Let's do it All right So I have can't lay at 14 to 1 burns at 34 to 1 You have burns at 34 to 1 conners at 41 to 1 If Aaron wise wins, I'm gonna Beat myself from for a very long time. Sorry when Aaron wise wins. I'll beat myself up for a very long time but I think From a process perspective can't lay it's a better option Would you would you rather because you went shorter? Would you rather I go head decky instead of conners? No Okay, you lay conners more relative to the odds you shake conners All right Yeah I just think that can't lay if I if i'm not going with wise and then can't lay like from a value perspective It's the second best value on the board. So I'll I'll go there Okay That is all that we have here for today for the podcast brand any final thoughts for you on the waste Management Phoenix open before we close up shop for today I think we covered a lot of it talked roster construction talked about the importance of course history. Um I think we're good. I think we are as well again We're back with you later on this week Thursday 10 a.m on the fangirl youtube page and up on the number fire daily fantasy podcast You know for that to get you said for Super Bowl 56 may dfs perspective also betting uh streams live for you Wednesday at 6 p.m. And friday at 4 p.m To have all of your needs covered for rams versus Bengals coming up on sunday Also, make sure you are subscribed the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts If you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well branded If people have questions for you on twitter, where can they find you there? I'm at gaduola 13 gdu la 13 I saw the coffee cup come up and I knew I had to Nip it in the bud just for funsies. That's a cool coffee cup by the way. What is that to owl? Do you make okay? It looked like pottery that you may have made. No, that was cute. I got it from my wife my wife I got this because I had an employee discount the hard rock cafe in san diego So same origin story, you know, I didn't work there, but I knew someone worked there. So that's Great backstory behind my cup. Anyway, that's all we have for today for the waste management phoenix open Enjoy the event. We'll talk to you once again thursday to get you sent for the Super Bowl But until then and if it has a time we'll talk to you once again soon. This has been heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire