 Hi, my name is Leon Rowe, Covency Trader and Trading Coach at trading180.com and welcome to this week's supply and demand for us in Gold, Fundamental and Technical Analysis, and getting into the week ahead, 13th of February. So it's Trading Economics website, tradingeconomics.com, so if you want to click on there, go to that website, you'll be able to read really the in-depth analysis as to what is being expected in the market and what is potentially coming up, but I'll just read the summary which is the US economic calendar will be dominated by the inflation rate, producer prices, retail sales and several speeches by the Fed officials. Also consumer prices index, retail sales and labor data will be released in the UK. Elsewhere investors will follow Q4 GDP growth for Japan and fresh inflation rates for Switzerland and interest rate decisions in the Philippines and Indonesia. So some some some decent data coming out, I guess potential market moving, but again especially for really the the US as well as the UK and Japan, those are probably the main data points. I think there is something to do with the euro, talks about elsewhere in Europe, second estimates are like to confirm the euro area economy recorded a marginal 0.1% GDP growth in Q4. So second estimates really aren't the most important GDP growth figures, it's really the first or preliminary ones that you really want to watch out for. And so let's get into the technicals and some more fundamentals looking at the dollar index. So the dollar index technically the dollar is at really a kind of like a bit of a turning point fundamentally and it's really because at the moment you have investors bracing for risk inflation dooms bonds to bear market, right? So let me read that again, investors brace for risk inflation dooms bond bonds to bear market and surprise hot CPI print may extend route triggered by jobs data and rates, traders place option bets that targets 6% Fed policy peak. So what does that all mean? In terms of inflation and the dollar, if inflation goes higher then the Fed will be probably forced to be able to actually hike rates for a bit longer which means that will have to be priced in which will mean that dollar will, you know, is likely to go higher or appreciate in value because hiking rates typically appreciates the currency and the Fed are looking to fight inflation and so with that, you know, bonds are connected to inflation, they're very insensitive to inflation. In fact, really if you're trading currencies, you should actually also be looking at, you know, treasury bonds or guilts in the UK as well and so because they are really linked, it's really called intermarket analysis and has to study between different asset classes and how they're, you know, linked and so investors are bracing for key inflation data next week that could worsen the bond market route but we're not necessarily focusing on the bond market too much because we know the what the expectation and what that actually means and so it talks about the reversal would come on the heels of a blowout January jobs report data that sent bonds tumbling since afterwards federal reserve officials conveyed that the inflation battle is not over and it may take longer for the central bank to achieve price stability, it would also dash hopes that inflation would remain in a downward trend and view, sorry, a view that sparked a rally in treasuries last month so ultimately exactly what I said in terms of, you know, the Federal Reserve having to fight inflation by hiking rates a bit more and a bit longer, right, which would and should send prices going higher spot at all depends on whether CPI comes out higher than expected because if it doesn't, if it just remains as is or actually comes out a bit lower, then that means that the Fed won't won't have to hike rates as much or, you know, they end their hiking cycle and you probably see the dollar start to, you know, come to the to the downside. Now, the expectation is actually for inflation to, you know, still continue on its way down, but there is obviously a surprise that could happen. We've had plenty of surprises, right, especially the jobs market, but let's see what happens here at the moment. Dollar index, again, my bias though is still really to the short side dollar unless we really do have some a big surprise on CPI and if we do have a big surprise on CPI, then in the short term, I probably will start to look for dollar buys, at least in the short term, but in but for now, and if it comes out as expected and, you know, rates CPI comes out lower than my bias is still more to the downside. So a bit of a tricky situation. It's again, data dependent. And so again, if you want to be short at the moment, probably say from a confluence perspective, this is decent because we're at a supply zone, so it could start to drift to the downside. If you're looking at buys and buying on the dollar, then you would look for prices to come down to that demands on the 102s, 101 area, and then look for any kind of buys on the, you know, dollar crosses like the dollar yen, dollar Swiss onto the dollar yen. Again, you know, the previous analysis talking about the dollar really applies to pretty much all pairs because the market has to price in the new interest rates if inflation does come out higher, which means that if the dollar starts to go higher, right, after CPI, then you're looking at any pullbacks really being buying opportunities and but if not any pullbacks to buy the yen and actually shorting opportunities. And again, my bias currently until the data really comes out, at least over the medium to long term is to go long on the Japanese yen. I do think the yen, dollar yen is going to go lower over the next three to six months. It might pull back obviously in the short term, but if it does, I think those are definitely decent shorting opportunities on the dollar yen, dollar Swiss, similar thing in terms of dollar analysis. Again, thinking to be to be a buyer with a dollar, you're really looking for a pullback into that 95 50s, sorry, 91 50s or 91 round number before looking at getting long. If you're looking to get short and think that the Swiss franc is a bargain anywhere around here, me personally, I think I'd rather look for a fresher area of supply and looking where the moving fair value is way above that moving monthly moving fair value. And so yeah, I think probably around the 94 50s, 94s, I think would be a decent area to look for any kind of short trades that I'd be looking for, even better would be the 96 95 areas, but I'm not really trading this pair. But if you are really those are the areas that you're looking for dollar CAD and the dollar CAD, the Canadian dollar had some decent news on employment or unemployment, I think it was always employment actually was employment that came out actually way better than expected. But the Canadian dollar, the Bank of Canada were not looking to high crates anytime soon. So as positive as the news was, I still expect the Canadian dollar to weaken or be one of the central banks that I would trade against. And so the Canadian dollar, not necessarily against the US dollar, but if I think, you know, I'm looking to trade the, for example, the Aussie CAD, and I think it's going to go higher, but the dollar CAD, a bit of a tricky one, I think for me, if I'm looking to buy, it would have to be somewhere around absolute lows, these one point two, three, two, six area, if I'm looking to buy the Canadian dollar, then it would have to be somewhere around the one, three, fives before looking at getting short, but not really a pair. Again, I'm not interested in unless I think the dollar, if the dollar starts to, you know, is a CPI does come out, you know, higher than expected than I think. In fact, if I'm going to buy the dollar, it will be against the Canadian dollar for sure. And this could be actually a really decent buy opportunity if prices drift down here before going higher. New Zealand dollar really come down, kind of come down to this, this demand zone around here, kind of broke it, it's kind of held a little bit hasn't really kind of gone through it, but I'm going to kind of just get rid of that anyway, looking a bit messy. I would say if you're looking to kind of buy the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar, pull back into that 62 area, I think we'll just below matter of fact, I think 60, 61 50s, I think is an even better area to look for any kind of buy trades. If you're looking for any kind of sell trades, at least up to the 60, the highs of this supply zone here, which is the 65 76 area for a buy trade. I mean, we do have actually, I can actually move this down. And that is a supply zone as well. So the underside of that level, I think is okay. But I think the better area would be really at the absolute highs. But again, not really a pair I'm interested in, in buying or selling. But a pound dollar is something that is quite interesting. And the pound fundamentally, there was some positive news talking about Britain avoids a recession by the narrowest margin during the strikes. And we had a, you know, strikes kind of started in the kind of end of November into December. And the expectation was for the UK to enter into a recession. I think the number came out basically at zero. So it avoided the UK avoided technical recession, talking about the figures leave the UK, the only G7 nation to yet recover from COVID. So we are still behind a lot of other economies. Jeremy Hunt's figures were better than some feel. And although they were, we are pretty much at the bottom of the table when it comes to our GDP growth. So it says the UK avoid the recession last year by the narrowest of margins after the UK, sorry, after the cost of living crisis and industrial action hit the economy during December, gross domestic products was unchanged in the fourth quarter following a revised 0.2% decline in the previous three months, the Office of National Statistics said on Friday. And output in December alone felt 0.5%. So that was, you know, quite a big drop in the figures meant that Britain dodged the back to back quarterly contractions, the definition of a technical recession, the economy nonetheless was 0.8% smaller than its size at the end of 2019, making the UK the only group of seven country that has yet to fully recover output loss during the pandemic. So, you know, the UK economy is very, very fragile. And for me, I think overall it continues to be a sell, although there is scope for some, some appreciation for the pound in the UK wage and inflation data set to fuel further Bank of England rate hikes. So Bank of England central bank weighs pause in quickest rate hikes in 30 years and signs of wage spiral keep upward pressure on rates. So the UK wage and inflation data this week are likely to support arguments from the Bank of England policymakers who are raising rates, adding the quickest surge in borrowing costs in three decades. And so economists expect two separate reports will show that consumer prices are still rising at a double digit pace and companies are boosting pay at the quickest pace on records excluding the year that was distorted by pandemic lockdowns. And so, you know, really, what does that mean? It just means that in order to bring inflation down, the Bank of England still have to continue hiking rates. Now, they are, you know, hiking rates in the face of a recession. And so, when hiking rates, the those rates are yet to be felt in the economy by businesses, you know, borrowers and lenders. And so, if you keep hiking, what tends to happen is is that it can have a negative effect on the economy in the future. And so, whatever you do now, they have to have one eye on the next six months to a year, because otherwise, if you hike rates to too much, then, as I said, it has a, it can have a really contracting effect on GDP. So as much as, you know, certain banks want to hike rates, they might not be able to as much as, you know, they want to simply because of the effects of interest rate hikes in the future. And so, let's see if that remains continues to remain positive or appreciate the pound or whether, you know, the market thinks that in fact, by hiking rates, the UK will go into a deeper recession, which is basically what I think. And so that's the reason why my bias really is to the short side. So with that being said, I wouldn't be surprised if prices come back up to, you know, this area here. But I do expect prices over again, the next maybe month or two, to still, you know, want to drift at least down to the 119s, if there's a pullback. And again, it just really depends on what happens with the US dollar as well, right? But for now, we are in, you know, an auction between this high and this low. And so if you do want to do business, best places to do businesses right now at the moment are going to be at the lows or at the highs of auctions or what, you know, traders would term as ranges. And so anything in between that, for me, I'm not really interested in doing any kind of business there. But I'm definitely watching this pair. It's on the watch list. But I've got more of a bias towards buying the dollar than I do the British pound, at least in a short time. Moving on to the dollar, Euro dollar and the Euro dollar, interesting one. So again, we've had some decent news for the dollar recently, which is the reason why the demand zone didn't really play out as expected. And we're coming down actually into 106s 105s, which is somewhere where I'm interested in actually buying. And so again, I do think that there is scope for prices to come down to this area, especially and maybe even down to the 103s, especially if CPI comes in higher for the US, for the US dollar, but ultimately, a lot of the banks are pretty much still long on the Euro currently against the dollar with 110s, the highs, as well as, you know, 115s actually being quoted over the next, you know, three to six months. And so with that being said, my bias is still to the long term, which basically means that I'm looking for just buy opportunities, one direction I'm not looking for, you know, to buy and sell in both directions, just looking for pullbacks into what would be considered a bargain for the Euro. And this is a bargain back in in January because it weren't made new highs. And so is this going to be a bargain again? Nobody knows. But that's really the area that I'm going to be looking for any kind of buy trades, especially if the US CPI comes out as expected. Now, again, the European Central Bank, ECB is not says half point rate hike may be needed in May, which is still quite some ground to cover. Dutch official says and comments add to calls for sustained tough action on inflation. So all central banks really are going through high inflation. And but the European Central Bank are one of the most aggressive banks at the moment when it comes to hiking rates again, it has to be supported by GDP gross domestic product. But as long as they, you know, they're seen as not entering into a recession sooner, then I think they can afford to be looked to be aggressive in their hiking. And so when you have two banks, central banks that are still hiking, the chances are you don't get a trending market, right? You would get more of an auction, more of an arranging market, fair value auction is what it's really should be known as. And so where is price likely to auction from? I think it could auction from around the 106s, 105s. And so that's really where I'm looking to buy. If you're looking to short the dollar, short the euro dollar, then you're really looking for a pullback up into, especially those 109s, 110s, I think it's going to be a really nice area to look for technically a short before, you know, looking to get short there. So you've got the Aussie US dollar, Aussie US dollar. Again, I think this is a decent buy right now. I do think that again, this week is going to be driven by obviously US CPI data. And we could come lower before we go higher. But ultimately, the Australian dollar for me is a buy simply because of, you know, China, right, more risk on, you know, around China and zero COVID policy. They're also looking to the RBA, looking to continue to high crates as inflation is high for them as well. And so there are some buying opportunities in and around this, these demand zones here. So at the moment, you do have demand zones, but you also have some support resistance aiding that as well. That area has been touched several times, so I don't necessarily expect it to hold. And if it does come lower, then I think that's going to be a better bargain to look to buy the Australian dollar against the US dollar. But if you want to go short, then you're looking for a pullback up into 70, 50, 71 areas before looking at getting short. The Aussie yen, Aussie yen is again, a bit of a tricky one at the moment. I think both currencies are appreciating for various different reasons. And so I do think that you will see, you know, price remain really in an auction between probably this high and this low. And so if you are looking to get short on the Australian dollar, then I think a pullback into the 93s and just above that would be really the decent price. So anywhere around there, looking to go long on the Australian dollar against the yen, I think the 89s. But again, not really a pair that I'm interested in. I might actually remove that from the weekly list. I might add something else instead of the Aussie yen, because I don't think for now I'm going to be trading that pair for a while. So I might just remove that. And then we've got gold. So gold obviously correlated with the US dollar, the dollar's strengthened, which means that gold has gone down. If CPI comes out higher, you would think that gold being a hedge against inflation, you would expect gold to go higher, right? But doesn't seem to be working that like that. There's a bit of a disconnect between just straight inflation and gold at the moment. It just seems to be literally gold totally driven by the value of the dollar. And so if the dollar starts to continue to appreciate, you can expect gold to devalue, right? But ultimately, these are again buying opportunities if you're looking to buy gold. So if you missed out on gold on this run up, then don't start moaning when prices come down here and start thinking to yourself, well, I'm not going to start buying gold. What's changed is the question I'd ask you. If nothing fundamentally has changed and you think that gold is going to go higher and the dollar is still going to get weaker over the year, which a lot of banks are predicting and forecasting, I shouldn't say predicting, but they're forecasting the dollar to continue to devalue over the next towards the end of the year. Then all these pullbacks should be potential buying opportunities. If you are trading gold, or whether you're just buying the physical or even looking at ETFs, look at a pullback really as a nice buying opportunity. I think the 50% area as far as from this load to this high is really nice. So fair value is going to be around a 1788. So that's fair values. Your price does come all the way down to this area, 1800, 1780s. Then I think that's decent for a potential buy too. Also, you've got the added confluence of some support and resistance in that area as well. So that's quite nice within that supply. Sorry, within that demand zone. If you are looking at getting short, then you're looking at a pullback into the 1928 and then a sell trade there. That's believing that the dollar is going to continue to strengthen and gold to get weaker. Anyways, guys, that's it for this week. If you do have any questions, please put them in the comment section. I'll try and get back to any really good questions. If I don't get back to your questions, probably wasn't a great question. If I don't know it, then I don't know it. But yeah, just let me know if you have any questions on fundamentals and I can point you to the right videos or any analysis in this video. Anyways, guys, have a great trading week and I'll speak to you until the next video. Hi, my name is Leon Roeb, currency trader and trading coach at Trading180.com. And in this video, I wanted to answer the question regarding can you swing trade forex successively without fundamental or risk sentiment analysis? And the answer that typically follows that from technical analysis traders is that all you've got to do is follow the trend, right? So higher highs, higher lows in combination with trend indicators, right? So it's just a case of PPC, something like this occur, higher, higher, higher, low like that. And you've seen this happen. All you've got to do is get in on a pullback, right? And then that's really what you're looking to do. And as long as whatever said indicator is, whether it's a moving average, whether it's some sort of Elliot wave, ABCD wave or 12345, then that's pretty much all you need to do. But I would then ask the question, well, how do you know if the trend is likely to continue? Because, you know, trends don't continue for continue forever, right? You might see the trend. What's happened is with especially with swing trading, you know, on something like a daily timeframe chart and looking out, traders will see the trend after it's made maybe about, you know, maybe 500, 600, 800 pit move. And then all of a sudden, they want to start jumping in on the pullback, right? And prices might pull back. But, you know, how are you going to, you know, know whether that's likely to continue? Yeah, likely to continue because ultimately that's what you're gambling on. And also, how do you know whether price is pulling back or if it's actually the beginning of a reversal, right? Because you have situations where you can have, you know, pullbacks, complex pullbacks, if you want to call it complex pullback, but pullback that might look something like this, and it might bounce off of there. And then maybe, you know, come down to maybe something like this, maybe a demand zone down there. And then all of a sudden, we made lower highs, lower lows, traders might think, oh, well, that's, you know, this is, is this a reverse or it's just a deep pullback, right? And then you might see, you know, prices start to make new highs or even prices might come down even deeper, right? To something like a 61.8% fib, right? How do you know whether price is that's just a deep pullback or in fact that is a reversal? Yeah. And so it's very, very difficult to just tell from price and you wouldn't be watching this video if you didn't have those same questions, right? And so, you know, for your information, price does not move simply for the sake of moving, right? Buyers and sellers within the forex market or any market, right? Any asset class, buyers and sellers don't buy and sell assets in large quantities for no, absolutely no reason, you know, to have a market that just people are speculating on without no sort of concept of value is, you know, is crazy to me. It doesn't exist, right? You have to have, when you have a market that has to be value associated with that market. And fundamental analysis of any asset class is really understanding the current and future potential value of an asset. And so what you don't want to do is confuse price with value, yeah? So assets have varying degrees of cheap or are varying degrees of cheap, expensive or fair value, yeah? So, you know, otherwise, if price was always indicative of its value, then we would never have an asset that is undervalued or overvalued. And it would never have anything that is cheap or expensive because the price is what it is. And, you know, you would just say, well, that's the value, but that doesn't make any sense. So, you know, if you bought a Ferrari, someone sold you a Ferrari for a pound, would you say, well, that's the value of the Ferrari? No, you know, intrinsically, that the Ferrari has an actual value because fundamental value because of the engineering that's gone into it, the materials that's been used on it, etc. So, everything has a value. And so price, yeah, is not always its value, right? So, don't confuse price with value. And in the forex world, value is determined by interest rates, yeah? So central bank monetary policy, inflation and GDP, as well as risk sentiment. And this is according to the financial institutions who are doing business in forex, right? It's not, you know, Leon Rosé and this, this is, these are the banks that determine the value of an exchange rate of a currency, one currency against another because currencies are trading in pairs. And so, you know, you look at examples like this from a bank, this is from MUFG, Japanese bank, this is the Eurozone rate market has moved to aggressively pair back expectations for further rate hike. This is the fundamental analysis. So, it talks about dovish policy, monetary policy updates from the Bank of Canada, Bank of England and the Fed, the Bank of Canada kicked off the dovish, dovish repricing by pausing their hiking cycle last week. Again, interest rates pausing their hiking cycle, yeah? So, you know, this is Citibank. So, you know, Citibank say on growth, so GDP, the UK lags with the slowest recovery to pre pandemic levels of real GDP future of UK's business model in a post Brexit world talking about the effects of Brexit on GDP. This is another bank that talks about, you know, this follows the Bank of England, Bank of England, SEMBA's meeting, et cetera, et cetera. And you can read, you know, them talking about why their targets, you know, within the next 12 months versus the Euro, the pound versus the Euro would be, you know, 0.88 cent in that price or that exchange rate, yeah? And it's not to do with, you know, well price, we're just speculating on price and what we see, what they see on the chart. Price does play a role, but the value is what drives price over the medium to long-term in the short-term. Price is really kind of driven by, or typically driven by liquidity and market makers, et cetera. And there is speculation, but the market is not for, you know, secondary, speculation is secondary. The market is really for big businesses like the banks to do business and exchange in currencies, right? And so fundamental analysis really is trading alongside the financial institutions. If you don't use fundamental analysis when you're swing trading, it's, you're basically just flipping a coin and it's pretty worse than flipping a coin, right? Because many traders, as you know, swing trading was all it was cracked up to be and easy as it was. Again, you wouldn't be watching this video. So there was definitely something missing in your trading, right? And it is fundamental analysis. And one of the ways, just one of the ways that you can use, I guess, the banks and what they release in their fundamental analysis in a bit of a shortcut is to use kind of bank forecasts as a guiding light, yeah? And so many banks use or publish their forecasts. They have monthly, quarterly, and these are always constantly updated every now and then, of course, because things change. But what you want to do is use bank forecasts as your guiding light. And I would say, you know, use probably one to three month time horizon, or maybe, you know, a quarter to two quarters as your, as your, as your guiding light, yeah, as your, as your guide. So that way, you know that even if you don't necessarily fully understand the fundamentals, which I highly recommend you do, the banks are actually showing you or telling or forecasting what they think is going to happen with that exchange rate. Now, does it mean that, you know, they're going to be 100% right all the time? No, no one has a crystal ball. And these are forecasts. Forecasts are not predictions. There's a difference. Forecasting is not predicting. Predicting deals with absolutes, you know, I predict that tomorrow it's going to rain. And if it doesn't rain, then I'm wrong. Forecasting is what is likely to happen, the probability of something happening, right? We're just forecasting. The weather is a forecast, right? We forecast the weather because the weather can be, you know, is ever changing. And, and that's why they call it a forecast. Anyways, so what you want to do is find as many as you can bank forecasts. Don't, you know, go with the, with the, the majority, don't go with just one or two. Go with maybe if you find 10 or 15, and then maybe, you know, maybe 10 of those 15 are saying that they forecast the euro dollar to go higher, for example, then you go with the majority. This isn't, you know, this is, this is opposite to, for example, retail trading, where if most of retail are saying that they are short on the euro dollar, then you might want to go long. The banks typically, you know, create the market. And so, and they're doing business. And so, the majority of the banks are typically not wrong, right? They're not wrong. They can be, of course, but they're typically not wrong. So you all, you know, as a rule of thumb, you want to go with the majority of, you know, the forecasts. And so what you want to do is zoom out on a daily, you know, potentially weekly chart and then look where current price is relative to the forecasts. Yeah. And so this is an example of the euro British pound, where you have the forecast. In fact, what I'll do is I'll just go back to the euro pound. And we saw a, for example, a forecast on the euro pound right here for the first quarter. We had an exchange rate forecast of 0.89. In the second quarter, we still have, you know, 0.89. And then it looks like it's going maybe, you know, about 100 pips higher, right? So we have at least two quarters where we should be at the 0.89s at some point. So then, on a price chart, what you want to do is look at where you are relative to the forecast at the time, right? So if you're at 0.89, yeah, at the time of taking the trade, which is right here, yeah, then you know that you probably don't want to, you know, take that trade anywhere around there. But let's say, for example, you're around the 0.87s, then you know that you've got at least a few hundred pips to 250 pips, you know, to the upside, yeah, if prices come down, right? Because ultimately, this is seen as the potential for a bargain if this is seen as the forecast of where prices may be, yeah? So you want to look at where you are, yeah, in relation to the current forecast as well as the upcoming forecasts, yeah? And so that is really kind of a bit of a shortcut way to understand, you know, whether you're going to be on the right side of the market or not, yeah? But again, not, you know, you must say again, but please note that not all bank forecasts, you know, are going to be up-to-date or relevant. And so it's still important that you understand current fundamental and risk sentiment analysis because data changes and risk events do occur, right? So there are surprises in the market with data, there are risk events, you know, who could have predicted Covid, who could have predicted the Ukraine war? There are things that come out who could have predicted the Chinese balloon, right? And whether that has an effect on prices in the US dollar at the moment doesn't look like it is. But you have to have your finger on the pulse, don't just blindly follow forecasts. Of course, it's a nice guide, it's an aid, it's some confluence, but if you don't understand the reasons why, then, you know, you might get caught out because if something changes in the market and you're going on maybe the forecast from, you know, from last week, then you're probably going to get caught out because you're not aware of the changes. The data needs to still support that narrative. And so when swing trading, what you want to do is look at the daily really as your overall, you know, to look where you are and you're doing your overall analysis. And then swing trading doesn't mean that you, you know, you can't go down into the lower timeframes and look for an entry, whether it's the one hour, whether it's the four hour, if you have custom time frame charge, you can go to six, to the eight, to the 10, et cetera, and look for your entries. Or if you just want to trade, you know, at the end of the day, because you have a busy day with family, work, et cetera, then that's fine too. Yeah, the entry doesn't really matter, only really matters in terms of, you know, your potential risk reward, right, and your upside potential. But ultimately, if you've got good two, 300 pips to the upside, and maybe you're only risking 50, 60, 70 pips, then, you know, that's still good risk reward. And so profit targets, you know, to be based on either the bank forecasts coming, you know, true and correct, and then being correct, or just simply good risk reward, right, you might want to take it off, take the profit off, just before you get to, you know, the bank forecasts, right, if you're up a certain amount, try your stops, however you manage the trade or choose to manage the trade. And so you know, swing trading forex successfully with fundamental resentment analysis, you know, the reason why you use fundamental analysis is to recognize when, you know, exchange rates really are cheap, yeah, and to get in, you can get in at the beginning of a potential trend and also obviously looking at where the banks are forecasting, where price is, and your directional bias, which is, you know, first and foremost, what you really want to understand or what your directional bias should be. And also as well, fundamentals gives you understanding, you know, deep fundamentals, not just forecasts, but understanding the deep fundamentals gives you the confidence to hold trades for longer, and you're less likely to take profits early, right, what's the point in taking profits, if you know that the fundamentals are in your favor and is likely to move, you know, maybe 1000 pips in your direction at some point, right, you know, you don't want to look at your account and say, well, I'm up by two to one, and then I want to just want to take, you know, profit, that doesn't make any sense. When, you know, what you want to do is ride the wave and ride the coattails of the banks. And it's very hard to do that without understanding the fundamentals, if you're just trading price and hoping and praying, again, you're pretty much in the wilderness, price is not going to tell you where, where, you know, forecast where price is going, indicators might be right, but they're only right simply because the banks, you know, the banks are saying that, you know, prices will go in that direction and as a result, the indicators are looking at price, and if the price is going higher, excellent, the indicator looks like it's working, but ultimately, those people who are technical traders don't understand, in fact, it wasn't the indicator that was right. It was the fact that they were, you know, inadvertently or unknowingly on the side with the, with the banks, right? Because the banks create the market and they are the ones that are going to move price in, you know, the direction, whether it's going to trend or whether it's going to range or what is known as a fair value auction. And so also recognize, you know, it's important to recognize when using fundamentals and fundamentals can help you recognize when price is likely to be a reversal or or just a pullback, right? So again, data changes. And so you might get in on a trend, not knowing that fundamentally, in fact, there's been a total 180 in monetary policy, and now it's become a, you know, the market is moving against you. So for example, you could be on a, you know, see a really nice trend, and then you could be thinking to yourself, I'm going to get in on this, this, this area here, this is a nicer demand zone, but not knowing that in fact, at this point in time, yeah, maybe the European Central Bank, the ECB have surprised the market, yeah, and said, oh, well, you know, we're, we're going to start cutting rates instead of hiking rates, right? And then you're thinking to yourself, well, the trend is still up, the trend is still up, right? And I'm going to buy here when you should really understand that there's no technical level in the world that's going to work against fundamentals, none, absolutely. You might get a small little bounce, but ultimately, this is now turning into, you can have confidence if you understand the fundamentals, this is going to turn into a total reversal rather than just looking at pullbacks. And this is how traders get caught at levels, you know, day in, day out, week in, week out, because they don't understand the, the fundamental side of things and the risk sentiment side of things as well. And so also as well, the number of trades you take does not equate to the amount of profit you'll make swing trading should never be looked at as a bad thing just because you take maybe, you know, four or five trades a month doesn't mean you're going to make any less money than someone who takes for 40 or 50 trades a month, right? It doesn't really matter because somebody can take, you know, 100 trades that month and break even or even lose, you could take, you know, one or two trades that month and have and both of those trades could be winning trades. So the number of trades you take does not equate to the amount of profit you'll make. So don't think that swing trading is any less profitable than something like day trading. And if you want fundamental analysis mentoring and a lot more, visit trading180.com, hope this helps and love to hear your feedback on it. Take care guys and speak soon.