 over de gebruik van fertiliseren die niet effectueel zijn door de kroppen niet efficiënt gebruikt zijn, polluten, waterbouwen en dit is een voorbeeld in China waar veel fertiliseren gebruikt zijn, waarschijnlijk te veel fertiliseren is gebruikt om environmentale issues te maken. Een ander probleem over de environmentale issues is dat, zoals alle landhuisers, de productie van risie ook heeft een impact op het klimaat, we weten dat risie een van de substentieën geïnteresseerd is voor de immuziek van meteen. Dus de onderdeel van deze exemplen laten zien is dat we denken dat increase in geluid, grapig kwaliteit en risooslijke efficiëntie zijn heel veel de solutie voor deze problemen. We weten ook dat beseitige ressourcen minder available worden, de environment in die we werken is getting increasingly stressed and climate change is contributing to this we will face more droughts, more flooding, more salinity, more extreme temperatures so resource use efficiency needs to be increased under these increasingly adverse conditions. We have of course a whole arsenal of research delivered response options that we are working on, that we have worked on and that we need to work on in the future ranging from management technologies. An example here is a management technology to help cope with irrigation water scarcity. We have variety technologies. Here is an example of the very successful discovery of the sub one gene that confirms tolerance to prolonged flooding in the field and we have more ecological based solutions in the bottom at the landscape level where we try to modify how the landscape looks like to increase its resilience and by control functions again. So coming now back to our strategic exercise, our methodology is first we try to set out to identify, map and quantify these constraints to rise production both in terms of the abiotic constraints such as drought and salinity and biotic constraints, pests and diseases. We want to identify opportunities to increase yield, the quality of it and the resource use efficiency, so the efficiency of fertilizers of water with which we produce the yield and to alleviate these constraints en we want to identify then and analyze real farmer adoptable solutions. That's what we're talking about in this strategic exercise. So we are focusing on actual products that are research delivered and can be adopted by the farmers and realize some of these constraint alleviation, increased yield and reduced costs. This is our methodological framework and it's a different look at what David presented. Potential yield is the highest yield, potential yield means there are no biotic or abiotic constraints limiting yield. It's really the expression of the genetic potential of a certain variety in terms of top hectare. In practice yield will be limited because there are constraints and unavailability of water of fertilizers and drought etc. And then yield can be further reduced. It might be a limited yield that could be produced in practice but when you have a swarm of brown planthoppers coming in that yield might be reduced. So yield potential, a variety property mainly grain quality, a variety property mainly, although we all know that there is G by E interaction and like we discussed yesterday afternoon in this very same room G by E by technology, by culture, by social, by political conditions but we want to focus here on the variety characteristics and implicit in realizing a high yield is the efficiency of the resources to do that. Water nutrients labor is the ones we focus on. The limiting yield are then the abiotic constraints. We are looking at droughts, limited flooding, extreme temperatures and reducing yields are pest diseases, weeds, pests include insects, pests, but also rodents and we may have to look into golden apple snail into birds when we talk about Africa etc. So these are then the main working groups that looked at these constraints and opportunities. So we have a working group, a multi-discipline working group on increased yield potential, mainly genetics and reading, increasing the quality of rice, using resources, water, nutrients, labor more efficiently specifically targeting these abiotic constraints and the biotic constraints. These working groups, multi-disciplinary use expert knowledge, knowledge that these people have gained by working in the field for so long and that comes back to the question at this stage, did you involve farmers in the process? Yes, in the sense that the people who are looking into this have a wide experience on the ground working with farmers and our stakeholders to develop solutions, but they are not explicitly asked at this stage, what do you think about the methodology or the data? We look at literature, all kind of data and try to involve external context as much as possible at this stage. But I have to say at this stage it is mainly an eerie internal process. Spatial units, Andy Nelson, explained that we basically divided Asia into 220 units, which is obviously too much detail to go through each of these 220 units. So we basically have a bird's eye view of East Asia, of Southeast Asia and South Asia en within them we look at these new eight rice ecologies that Andy explained. So these are four irrigated lowland ecologies for rain-fat based ecologies and one upland ecology. We look at single cropping of rice, double triple and explicitly cropping of rice, non-rice crops. So we look at all these cropping systems, which we at Eerie like to call rice-based, but I guess if you work at Sinnet you could equally well call them mace-based or wheat-based. So that is what we are looking at here. Just to recall, these are then the spatial maps that we have available of these ecologies in South Asia, East Asia and South East Asia. So I want to give you a flavor of the preliminary results, show you some of the numbers, but especially draw attention to how we went about getting these numbers in here. So first are just a spatial extent of some of the constraints and it would be so nice if we just could pull out from internet or a GS lab the data itself. This is drought and how it affects rice. This is our spread of diseases in terms of hectares and damage, et cetera. These data simply do not exist. And even I think for a relatively big player in the rice world like Eerie, it's beyond our capacity to get all these data sets complete. So this is what we had to work with. On the top right side is an example of spatial mapping of outbreaks of planthoppers and associated spread of viral diseases. So we get reports where it happens. So we have these dots on the map. We know that there are outbreaks there. In some cases we even have area extent, but it's far from complete. Here on the left hand side is water scarcity. Now there are dozens of global water scarcity maps out there, which are all kind of qualitative. They use some index of water scarcity, the related amount of water availability to the amount of people living in a basin or in a country. And they talk about, like in these maps, economic water scarcity, physical water scarcity. But at least we have maps that geographically delineate the hot spot and give an indication of the severity of water availability. Then here is something that we did inhouse. And he explained that, I guess demonstrated that there are quite a number of climate data out there. And I think for temperature they are much more reliable than for prediction of rainfall. So what we did inhouse, for example, is look at high temperatures where they currently occur, where they are predicted to occur, overlay that with where currently rise is being grown, and looking even at the most sensitive crop stage. We know that high temperatures are damaging to rise when they occur around flowering. So here we have a very precise map, where in the black circles you can see temperatures at flowering under current cropping patterns. We have some very patchy things. We have some global things like the water scarcity and some inhouse, more detailed work specialized. So we take our ecology maps and we overlay that roughly so we get an idea of the aerial extent of some of these constraints. Then we need to put numbers to that. So knowing that northeast of Thailand falls in the economic water scarcity domain of the enemy map. What does that mean for rise production? What does that mean for irrigation water available to farmers who grow rise in that particular area? So here I give a very simple example of what our team of water scientists came up with regarding irrigation water scarcity. I give here an example of East Asia. So first what we see is that only three of the eight ecologies have numbers in them. Irrigation water scarcity is not a relevant issue in rain-fed agriculture. Drought this and we work on drought there. In most of the wet seasons there is enough water and again irrigation water scarcity is not a big deal. So there are three ecologies here. It is in the main rice irrigated wet season in East Asia. It's in the dry season of double irrigated crops where there is an issue and double irrigated irrigated with another rice crop. Very intensive, but again primarily in the dry season part of that cropping system only. So these are then numbers that come out of survey of literature of data availability, water availability, water use efficiencies etc. in surface irrigation systems of rice. We basically see that in many systems in these areas about 25% of the command area is fallowed in the dry season because of lack of water. Here in the wet season that is estimated to be 15%. Beside area not irrigated, these are the numbers that we came up with. 15% of the irrigated area does not get enough water. So that experiences water scarcity. So the total area affected here is 40% and here it's 22%. Frequency of that, most of these systems were designed for supplementary irrigation in the wet season. They are now used for irrigation in the dry season and basically that is a chronic state of affairs. So at least one in two years 50% of the area will not be irrigated. In the area that surface water scarcity, the 15% here, that results in about 30% yield loss. So that is how we try to go about it. There are technologies to alleviate this water scarcity en alleviate the impact on yield, but they won't be 100%. We won't be able to reduce the 30% yield loss to 0% yield loss. So technologies that are adoptable by farmers, don't forget about, we talk about adoptable farmer technologies and their impact when they are adopted in the field, not when they are adopted at Eris Experimental Research Station. We estimate that half of that yield loss can indeed be reduced. How did we come up with these numbers? A lot of expert knowledge, a lot of literature data, practical experience of having worked in a few sites on that map. One of the immediate concerns that all our scientists raised is, oh, but I only worked 20 jaar in this field and I worked mainly in China and Indonesia and three sites in the Philippines. And I have very accurate data there. But how do you expect me to extrapolate that to all of Asia? And that's, I guess, one of the main challenges in our ambition to be comprehensive. We need to find mechanisms that allow plausible extrapolation and