 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Morning Markets Kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good Wednesday morning, everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, a company live from TFNN. Just after 9 a.m. Eastern time, we've got about 24 minutes to go until the opening bell. Another big morning of economic data. We've got retail sales out there weaker than the market expected. We've got producer prices, wholesale prices dropping the most in two and a half years as the headline I saw. We got that number 36 minutes ago at 8.30 a.m. this morning. Let's just drill it down to a minute. Minute charts on the S&P so you can see the initial spike higher to 45-41. We drive down to 45-20. We're just above that level right now. You've still got markets in positive territory. S&P futures up by 13 points right now, trading at 45-24. We've got the NASDAQ 100. You see the volatility there, up above 16,000. We came into that number right at about 16,000. We're just under the 16,000 price point. You still get the NASDAQ 100, up by more than half a percent, up by 82 points at 15,962. You get the Dow right now, up by about two-tenths percent, just under 35,000, 34,948. The Russell, positive by three at 1,809. We jump over to crude, trading a bit lower off 86 pennies at 77-40. Getting some volatility. Check out that volatility. I was going to say we got some action in yields. We got some action in the dollar index, somewhat reverse in what we had happening yesterday. These are minute charts just to illustrate the volatility. Since 8.30 a.m. this morning, let's back it up to a 10-minute chart so you can see the spike we got yesterday on the CPI number and the spike we're getting today. A little bit of a reversal on the PPI number and retail sales. We're going to break down these numbers in a moment. You could call it the main event, yields, all in focus. It was a rip-roaring rally, man. I think that was the test of that channel line. At least that's what I'm going with until the market proves me wrong. But right now, we are well above that channel line, decisive break yesterday. We get a little pullback today. But all things considered, man, we're talking about right now a 10-year yield, sitting right at 4.5%, even with that little pullback. We're still sitting right at 4.5% the yield on the 10-year. And we have the two-year treasury yields actually rising. Yeah, let's see. Let's pull it up. Let's pull up the yield curve for a moment. Come on, cooperate with me here. Co-operate, one. Sorry, my screen's clicking a little bit, and there's the yield curve. Yeah, so yields up across the board. Check it out, man. You got the two-year right now approaching 4.9 up by seven basis points. And you got the 10-year just above 4.5, I mentioned, up about seven basis points as well. All right, let's jump into some of the retail sales. Now, it's going to be a great program, man. We got a couple great guests lined up. We got our man, Kevin Hinks. He's coming up after the first break. We talked to him every Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. We got our man, Teddy Kegstad. Great day to talk to Teddy with some currency action, some yield movement on the heels of yesterday as well. We talked to Teddy every Wednesday at 40 past the hour. So two great interviews for the program. But let's get into it. We kick things off with retail sales. Retail sales fall by less than forecast ahead of the holidays. So the market was looking for quite a pullback here. Retail sales month over month. They were looking for a 0.3% decline. They only get a 0.1% decline. Excluding autos and gas, which have really pulled back. Gasoline, we know autos have been pulling back as well, from some of the other data points we've got out there. They were looking for a 0.2% increase. You get a 0.1% increase in the control group, month over month, right in line at 0.2%. Seven of 13 categories posted declines led by furniture and car dealers. Gas sales weren't as big of a drag on the headline number as feared, considering how much pump prices fell in the month. Meanwhile, outlays increased at personal care and grocery stores. Food, right? Is food ever gonna go back to a normal pricing? I don't think so, man. The so-called control group, which control group sales, and that is used to calculate GDP and excludes food services, auto dealers, building material stores, and gas stations rose 0.2%, suggesting the fourth quarter is off to a decent start. Yeah, the U.S. consumer, man, just powering forward. So we get retail sales this morning, slightly off where the market was thinking. Gasoline, a big number in there, in terms of not as big of a drag as the markets were thinking originally, but nonetheless. Now, these are unadjusted for inflation. I think about that. The retail sales number, the value of retail purchases, unadjusted for inflation is decreasing. Now, the next part of that, though, is we just got inflation yesterday. It was unadjusted for inflation, but what was the CPI headline yesterday? Zero. There's no inflation. You don't need to adjust it. I'm paraphrasing, I'm ballparking, okay? I'm generalizing. But month over month, when you're seeing these numbers, because at first I started thinking, oh, unadjusted for inflation. Wow, that really, no. It doesn't on a month over month basis, man, because on a month over month basis, on the CPI, we're basically at zero right now. That was the number yesterday, okay? So unadjusted for inflation, not as big of a discrepancy as you might think if you were adjusting numbers for inflation. Nonetheless, man, we got a pullback market, digesting these numbers right now as we come into Wednesday trading. And it's gonna be interesting to see what kind of a pullback we potentially get with 20 points off the high right now. All the pressure has been to the upside, man. But boy, we got some optimism built into this market when you just traded up 400 points, we're approaching one, eight, nine percent acceleration just from where we were less than three weeks ago in this market. And so I imagine we're gonna have to digest some of that. But I talked about it on the program yesterday, man. 46.34 seems like the next stop, right? You just take on a Fibonacci basis, where that acceleration began to lower prices, okay? October 17th, you traded from a price point of about 44.20, you drive down to a low of 41.22, the one to 1.618 expansion of that pullback, right? We've gotten 100% of it back, but we're already pushing 45.20. You get up about 4,600 and you're at the one to 1.618 expansion, okay? That's also correlating to the recent highs you got back in July, probably the next point this market's going for, man. Now, where do yields go to get the market there? That's what I'm not quite sure of yet. The relationship here is pretty interesting. When you look at, I mean, you know, what happens? Yesterday, yields pulled back dramatically while the market goes up 2%. Today, you have yields going back up a bit while the markets are up nonetheless, okay? Market readjusting on a temporary basis at least to what we've seen happen on the economic data. But boy, it's pretty interesting where 20 ticks off of the high yesterday where we were at 9.30 in the morning, right? 20 ticks we've given up from that spike. We came into that CPI number at about 107.15 and we're sitting at 108.10 right now on the 10 year. You jump over to the dollar index. As I mentioned, talking to our man, Teddy Kakes at 40 past the hour. Always a good conversation, but I love that we talked to him on Wednesdays because we usually get some good data occasionally and today's a good one for sure with retail sales out there and yields moving and dollar moving. Quite the pullback yesterday as you got the dollar driving the action down from 105.57 down to 104 yesterday and just a barely a blip higher as the dollar index continuing to weigh. All right, folks, stay tuned. It's gonna be quite a day in the markets. Quite a day. Every day it seems like right now with volatility. And why not? We jump over the VIX before we jump back. We get the VIX right now. We got a 13 handle on that spike yesterday. We're sitting relatively low right next to the lows of yesterday at 15, 16, stay tuned folks. We'll be coming back about our man, Kevin Hinks from the Schwab Network fast market right back. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. 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At TFNN, all our newsletters come with a 30-day money back guarantee so you have absolutely nothing to worry about. Visit TFNN.com and try Mastering Probability 30 days risk-free today. TFNN Educating Investors. TFNN has launched the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. The Tiger's Den, available to all Tigers and Tigresses for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back folks, we've got the S&P Futures trailing off a bit. We're off by single digits right now. Still positive by nine points trading at 45, 20. We're about 20 points off of that spike high though. To talk about some of the market action this morning let's jump over to our man Kevin Hinks. Every trading day folks, 12 noon Eastern time from the Schwab network fast market with your host, Kevin Hinks, Tom White. And let's just jump right into it. Kevin we got some data yesterday. We got some data again today. Yields kind of reverberating a bit. What do you think of the data this morning? Good morning Kevin Hinks. Good morning Tommy and Brian. You know I look at everything as you know Tommy from a prism of trading. And sometimes when you have a big day yesterday you're just looking for to hold on to what you had and stay stable. So the data we got today is solid. The PPI number was disinflationary. The retail sales was firm to better than expected with revisions to last month so even stronger. So I think the data today is good mortgage apps. We're a second week in a row of positive mortgage apps. I think the dollar is higher today because the UK inflation data that came out overnight was weaker than they thought it would be. So that's a good sign over in the UK that their inflation's coming down. That being said Tommy, you know the numbers all, the futures all spiked when the number came out but they've eased back down to very modest gains and the ruffles actually unchanged now. It's pretty wild in terms of just the market moves we get on the instant that those numbers came out. You may yesterday just staggering movements on the thinkorswim platform. I got it up on that 830 number yesterday morning. We got spikes again, like you mentioned this morning. Not quite as dramatic. What do you think about the pullback in the price of the fixed income as in we have yields rising again a little bit today, Kevin but that's not mattering with the market, right? Yesterday yields dropped pretty dramatically on that CPI number. The market goes up two to 3% depending on what you're looking at. This morning we have a little bit of a pullback there but still we have the NASDAQ 100 night right now sitting up about half a percent. Is this market right now, Kevin? You know, tied to yields, I'm trying to wrap my brain around how we actually have yields moving in the opposite direction of yesterday not getting the full move back of course but it's not stopping the market and we got positive prices. How are you looking at that relationship right now with yields moving kind of differently as to yesterday and the market just loving it either way right now. But I think we live right now in a trading environment that's a very microwave trading environment where one good, the momentum that stayed in the market yesterday all day was pretty incredible but high frequency trading will do that. They take things to the final destination almost quicker than the move there. There's very few grinding moves now, right? That trading yesterday was a gap up to those levels. So I think you have to adjust the way you look at these markets and trade them based on high frequency trading and electronic trading and how quickly things get from not point A to point B but point A to point Z frankly, Tommy. Yeah, they didn't leave much room man. They digested that CP high print and markets crawled a bit throughout the day to higher price but boy that move happened almost in an instant yesterday morning. With that Kevin, we had all of that economic data that kind of gets sucked out of the market. We still got some retail sales, excuse me, retail companies that you guys were talking about yesterday. We got some earnings coming out. We march forward from here. Do you guys have any equities? You're talking about our fast market coming up at 12 today, Kevin? Yeah, we got more good names coming out with earnings. Some after the bell today like Palo Alto Networks in Cisco and then we've got Walmart tomorrow morning. That should be a revenue number for 90 days that's bigger than some small countries. So it's gonna be an impressive number but Walmart's had a nice run and look at the bar for Walmart is kind of high based on the run they've had. We talked a lot on yesterday show about a low bar for earnings versus a high bar for earnings and just look at the price action in Target that had a very low bar for earnings and TJX that had a very high bar for earnings. Both came out with good numbers but Target's up big based on that and TJX is down slightly on their numbers. So yeah, I think there's a pretty high bar for Walmart's earnings tomorrow but we got great news in Target overnight or this morning and so yeah, over these but I like networks to obviously cyber security. That's always a fun one to look at. Yeah, I was taking a look at the chart and Walmart as you were talking about it, boy. So much for the pullback of last year, right? With that stock dropped out of thin air basically from 160 down to below 120 and it's been a one way trip basically to all time highs pushing 169, 167 this week coming into that earnings event. Kevin, I appreciate the time as always on a busy morning. We'll be watching Fast Market at 12 today and we look forward to talking to you tomorrow, man. Thanks for your time. Always pleasure folks, check it out, you heard it. They're talking three great stocks, Palo Alto Networks. Yeah, and how about Walmart, right? How about that chart of Walmart? You're talking about a company, you jump over to the Analyze tab, okay? You jump over to the Fundamentals tab. You're looking at about a $5.20 move priced into their earnings on either direction. If you jump over to the entire week you're talking about about just slightly over that level. $5.44 is the move priced in for their earnings this week. Not too large of a move for a pretty stable company but expectations gonna be even higher now with what Target did. And that's a perfect segue to jump into those target numbers because boy, you talk about a pullback, man. Pretty remarkable. So many companies give up the entire COVID acceleration, right? Disney comes to mind. Companies that actually traded back to a time and place in history where, I mean, remember the uncertainty and the fear that took place was right around my birthday during COVID. My birthday is March 20th, folks. And I think schools in Florida shut down like March 15th, 16th, 17th, something like that in 2020. It was just a few days prior to my birthday. And we kind of all knew it was coming a little bit. Things were creeping up. I remember saying to the people in my household on a Friday, it was Thursday night, I think. Let's back it up for two seconds here as we come in. We got five minutes till the next break. I'm gonna have to go back that far pretty quickly. Let's see if I can get back here. We go, we're in 2021 and every click is a month which is crazy. Okay, it was March 13th, I believe, the week before my third birthday. And I remember saying to the kids in my household on Thursday the 12th, I believe so. I think so, right? I remember saying, hey, tomorrow's probably the last day you're gonna be in school. I would take anything out of the locker that you have on Friday and make sure you bring it home. And that's basically what happened. We were closed down by the 16th, 17th and Florida. Things changed state by state. Nonetheless, point being, right? Target almost back to COVID lows, man, when we didn't even know if the economy was gonna exist, Disney in the same accord. But guess what? This morning, you're catching a little bit of a lift for context here. We're up by $16, percentage-wise, quite a move. But on this chart, you see where my cursor is, right? We're basically just back to the lows of where we were in June on this equity. But yes, a low bar for Target and they beat what's gonna happen is you get Target up by $16. That's only put in a lift of about 50 pennies. And that's with a positive market here, okay? In Walmart shares and for some context here, okay? Target started yesterday at 108. Target had a nice day yesterday already coming into their earnings event. So Walmart's gonna have some lofty expectations coming out with their numbers. And as I mentioned, about a $5 move priced in for Walmart on their earnings after the bell tonight. All right, folks, don't miss the opening bell. We're coming back in three minutes. The market is gonna be digesting. Retail sales. We're gonna talk about producer prices when we get back. Haven't talked about those yet. We'll take a look at some of the Magnificent 7. We'll take a look at yields as well. And then don't forget, Teddy Kegstad coming up at 40 pass. Don't go away, folks, we'll be right back. 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Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN. Educating investors. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV. Welcome back folks, we got markets open, you got an S&P futures up by about 14 points right now trading at 45, 25, NASDAQ 100. You're up by half a percent, 15,953. Get the doll up 98 points in the Russell and positive territory by two. Crude, off a dollar, excuse me, dollar on the dot. At 77.24, we check in on gold, pulling back to 1966 and we gotta check in on yields, man. The 10-year right now, off by about 16 ticks at 108.13, that of course putting some strength in the dollar as we have yields rising, right? We have the price of the 10-year pulling back, we have yields rising, you have slight dollar strength, but boy, it's very interesting to look at the pullback we got in the dollar versus what a yield chart looks like in terms of the 10-year, it's a price chart, okay? But boy, the dollar just holding up so well, I'm gonna ask Teddy about that coming up at 40 past the hour, just rip roaring pullback on the dollar index and we basically got no lift, right? The dollar index is right back where we were at 11.30 a.m. yesterday and in comparison there at 11.30 just for some context, we were right near 108.25, so you've basically had the 10-year pullback, 10 to 12 ticks on the price it's trading at and the dollar's sitting right at that level right now, it's quite a pullback in the dollar index. All right, let's jump around to some of the equities with action this morning, we talked about targets, see how they open 13.3% to the positive side. We jump around some of the fang stocks, Amazon, up by 7.10%, Apple shares up by 4.10% this morning, you jumped to Microsoft, up by 4.10 as well, we always talk about Google. My man Tommy, he's not joined us this morning, he was with me the last couple days, pretty remarkable how often people in the household are watching YouTube these days in every household and that is just one facet of Google's business. I always talk about now, there's always a multiple you can buy something at, you can sell something at, the multiples on YouTube, if it went public by itself right now would probably be astronomical, so be careful, I was saying, there's Kevin, we just talked to Kevin, he's a great expression, I'm gonna surmise it, okay, I may chop it up in terms of the words, but basically the sentiment is there's a price that I'd be willing to buy an equity at, any equity at and there's a price that I'd be willing to sell any equity at, okay, because any equity can become overpriced and underpriced, and that has to do with multiples generally. Google, up by 4.10%, we jump over to Tesla, they've been in the press recently, it's been a nice trip from 205 last week, up to 243 in the pre-market, but you're dropping, you give back those gains, you're back to 237.60 right now for Tesla shares, and let's jump into those PPI numbers before we talk a little mortgage demand. So, PPI, wholesale prices fall 0.5% in October for the biggest monthly drop since April of 2020, there it is, two and a half years. Wholesale prices fell 0.5% in October, now, these can be particularly volatile and they don't always trickle down to the CPI numbers, but it's a core component, right? And I say core, no pun intended. The prices producers are paying, somewhere down the line translates to consumer prices in some fashion, it has to, okay? The producer price index, which measures final demand costs for business declined 0.5% from the month, market was looking for a 0.1% increase, excluding food and energy, core PPI unchanged, they were looking for a 0.3% increase, if you include food, if you exclude, excuse me, if you exclude food, energy and trade services, the index increased 0.1%, always interesting how they're cherry picking, what they're taking in and out. Nonetheless, they talk about retail sales a little bit in there as well. Jumping over to mortgage demand, Kevin referenced this as well, climbs to the highest level in five weeks, not that long ago, right? After interest rates move lower, average rate 7.61, same as last week when I was on this program telling you about it, applications to refinance a home increased 2% for the week and were 7% higher than the same week a year ago. Folks, I love this raise, I say it all the time, percentages on small numbers can be deceiving, okay? The numbers of people who are refinancing is a very small number. So when you start talking about percentage increases and you start talking about a 2% increase on a small number, you start talking about a 7% increase on a small number, they can be very deceiving because they in themselves can be very small numbers, obviously applications for mortgage to purchase a home increased 3% from the previous week and were 12% lower than the same week a year ago. Those conforming loan balances $726,000 or less is the number there, but mortgage demand up by 2.8% last week, okay? And yeah, 7.61% is the number with points decreasing to about 0.67 and that is for a 20% down payment conforming loan. Yeah, not surprising, but be careful of these types of statements, man, okay? Be careful of reading about refinancing a home loan increasing 2% for the week and 7% higher than a year ago because those are very small numbers and percentages on small numbers folks don't give you the whole picture to put it lightly. All right, let's talk a little bit about those target earnings, man. Earnings overshadow sales decline. Yeah, holiday gift items under $25 to attract value focused shoppers is what they're looking for. And I've told you, man, I talked about Tommy, my man, he's out there in the living room, he's having some waffles, he's having some juice, right? He's not on the program today, but boy, he loves Target, man. And we've turned it into a little bit of a Toys R Us experience, right? They get the game systems in there, we go in there, we play with the music sound systems, we like to bump some beats, we like to play DJ in the music aisle. It's a great user experience, but I've talked about, man, Target is expensive, man. Period, end of sentence. But nonetheless, let's get into the numbers. Comp sales fell almost 5% in the three months ended October 28th from the year prior, big numbers, man. Earnings though, growing 36% to almost a billion dollars in the third quarter added, aided by tight inventory and expense management. Analysts had expected earnings of 6.85. Now, as somebody that's in Target all the time, okay? And I only have a few sections of the store that I'm pervading, okay? Surveying, we go into, of course, the toy section. Very familiar with the toy section. I go into the men's clothing section, I go into the kids' clothing section, okay? The toy section for the boys, for the kids, okay? Not for the boys, for the kids in general, and we like the dinosaurs, we like Lightning McQueen, okay? I did notice that I said that, man, it's remarkable that they weren't refurbishing it that often, right? We go in there all the time, and of course, I'm looking for new toys for Tommy to play with, not to buy, okay? Just to play with, to survey. And what was happening was they weren't doing it, man. The shelves were kind of empty, but I knew from being in the market that, guess what, man, okay, they're getting rid of all this inventory, okay? They're not playing these games anymore, that they're just gonna keep stocking inventory, keep stocking the shelves, they're getting rid of the inventory, and what I'm in there often enough that I see it happen, they put them on the shelves, they give them a period of two months, something like that, and then they start discounting them right away, and they discount them, and they discount them until that product's gone, and they make room for the next one, but it was interesting how some of those shelves were a little bit bare, and I found myself saying, do you know what, man, they're getting rid of all these goods. We know they had an inventory problem, and there you go. The numbers say it, man. Yeah, earnings. Why tight inventory and expense management? 971 million, the market likes it. Stay tuned, folks, we're coming back with our man, Teddy Kakes, that don't go away. TFNN has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. 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Right now we get the S&Ps up by about 11 points. Little bit of volatility there. We get the dollar index right now up about 30 pennies at 104.36. To talk about some of the action, let's jump over to our man, Teddy Kegstad. Folks, you can check out Teddy's Tiger Forex Report. He puts out new issues every Monday with updates throughout the week when warranted. You can check that out on the front page of TFNN under the newsletter tab. And don't forget about the webinars he's got under the services tab at TFNN. You can check out capitalizing on time with calendar stock option spreads as well as his Japanese candlestick patterns, stock and option strategies webinars, both of those available under the services tab for 97 bucks. They're archived. You can watch them as many times as you like. And boy, we got some action. Let's jump into it. Teddy Kegstad, good morning. Good morning, Tommy. Boy, it's been quite 48 hours in this market, almost 24 hours in this market from that CPI print we got yesterday, Teddy. Where do you want to kick things off, man? Well, we definitely had some explosive volatility yesterday. Obviously, we hammered a big lower move low on the dollar index. I mean, right now you have the US dollar as well as yields in a corrective mode right now. I think overall, there's no confirmation of a trend reversal, that's for sure. I think that the hype of it all, especially with rates is getting way ahead of themselves as far as where the yield curve is or is not going. But I think that the volatility is very reflective. I mean, you had a two and a half handle move in the 10 year, excuse me, in the 30 year and a huge move in the 10 year last year or last yesterday. So of course the dollar is gonna get sacked like it did. But if you look at the levels like we had, especially in the Tiger Forex report, we're coming into very corrective areas. So the target levels are nice. Now we had an extreme move yesterday. I was looking for us to creep up to these levels over three to five trading sessions, not in one. So that volatility factor, I think that's something that needs to be paid attention to. We had extreme volatility off of not new, and the news wasn't anything that should have sparked that kind of volatility. So I think you're running extremes right now. You probably squeezed out a lot of weak longs and shorts yesterday, especially with that interest rate move. And I think that you can see the pullback today is profit taking just off of yesterday. But I'd be cautious with these new higher move highs and lower move lows, especially in the FX pairs because the question is, if it's a correction, while we're bottoming and topping out, we're not reversing trend, and that's what you really have to pay attention to. Do you find yourself, Teddy, trying to do the math on the Fed and where they go from here? I mean, that's a lot of focus, of course. We had Chairman Powell the prior week, and then of course you got economic data on the Friday, and then we have the CPI, and we got PPI week number today. A lot of conversation, of course, is about what the market's pricing in maybe for even cuts next year. Is that something that you try and wrap your brain around and try and not predict? But are you trying to work that out in your head, or are you just kind of looking at the currencies and the momentum and the trends that they're working on right now? Great question, long-term, absolutely. I'm looking at that. I mean, if the Fed, even if they don't go dovish, just the fact that they would say that they're stopping, you know, whether it's three, six months or just not indefinitely, but they're, you know, say, let's say we're gonna stop, and we're not gonna think of being hawkish unless the numbers really go back the way they were. If we're in a situation like that, and I think that's pretty much where we're going to be a member, we got an election year next year, and we have over $8 trillion. See, our Fed and our Treasury Department in their ultimate genius over the last five years into 10 years, they financed everything like they did in the 90s under the Clinton administration. They use one through five, 10-year notes to finance the whole of government. You don't do that. You do that when you want to window-dress your own balance sheet. You know, that's where you got your, you know, supposed surplus back in the 90s that there was a synthetic move because of interest rates. Now we're gonna pay the price next year. We have 8.1 trillion coming due in the next 12 months before Christmas of next year, as well as the next two to three trillion we're gonna tack on just for regular spending for 2024. That's not including anything else they asked for, for Ukraine, Israel, the illegal aliens, you know. So that's a lot of money for us the Treasury market to absorb, you know. So I think that right now, especially, the Fed is looking at that issue. They're like, well, how are we gonna raise 10 to 12 trillion? That's a trillion dollars a month they basically have to raise starting in January. You know, how are you gonna do that if you keep on hiking rates? You're not gonna get anyone to invest in bonds. Your auctions are gonna get crushed. You know, not to mention, hopefully they're gonna do it in 30 year notes, you know, because even at the racer at now, it's gonna be a lot better than if they keep raising rates over the next five to six years and they keep doing what they're doing. You're looking at having more bills come due in five to 10 years at absorbent rates, you know, refinancing, you know. So hopefully fiscal responsibility hits the Fed and also the Treasury Department because otherwise we're gonna have a really big problem with the credit markets, you know. And what is that gonna do to the dollar? Well, it could actually make the dollar an extreme bull but the value of the dollar is gonna collapse and the velocity of money is gonna collapse as well. So that doesn't, so that means that it doesn't matter how strong the dollar is because inflation is just gonna just outweigh it, you know. So hopefully that's not the situation but that's what's looming. So that's where I'm looking in the long-term forecast and short-term I still think that you have to think that there's possibly another quarter point between now and the next two to three Fed meetings before they go on a pausing cycle. So that means we're probably capping where as far as how high the 30 year and 10 year and even the short-term rates are gonna rally, you know, I would watch, I think you'll probably see a lot of action in the smaller interest rates, you know, like the short terms, like the euro dollars and the ones, two, three, and five year notes and stuff like that. So I think that's where your volatility is gonna be but if I'm right in that scenario with the bigger interest rate contracts, that means the dollar is gonna get into a range trade probably for the next three to six months that's gonna be established but I don't think that we've seen the high in the dollar index yet, you know, just in also I don't think we've seen the low, you know, in the treasuries either. I think there's still one more spike. Even if it doesn't take out the lows, we should probe those bottoms before we have a confirmation of at least ending the hawkish stance by the Fed. Yeah, and it is interesting. Maybe we, you know, we're getting quite a pullback. We're already, what, 22 ticks? I got the 10 year offer where we were trading at last night. Quite an interesting pullback but the market doesn't care man. Market going higher picking up on yesterday's acceleration. What do you think about crude? All the talk, you know, crude 77 handle. What do you think of the price action in crude this morning? You know what, I like the stability right now. I just don't think it's, I'm not bearish on crude. I think right now you're in a consolidating range trade. I'm still bullish, especially with geopolitical tensions and we're also heading into winter time. You know, I can't imagine that commodity prices are going to stay stable to even deflating over the next three to six months. And I think that as long as if those trends continue, I can't see how you're not gonna see a spike in oil. Now, let's say that we have an abnormally warm winter. Maybe, maybe then that would keep things better. But if we have especially a cold winter, some major storms that hit the US depending on, especially like the Northeast, you know, and things like that. Or even let's say things happen in Texas like happened over the past couple of years, you know? Like if those temperature extremes hit those areas, well, then I can see a nice spike in oil for sure, you know? So because you're just gonna, the demand I think will be increasing that. And we could still see another pop, you know? And now if the Middle East keeps on blowing up, then $100 oil is still on the charts. And I can't believe it's Thanksgiving already next week. But we'll probably talk to you next Wednesday. One more time before the holiday. Teddy, I appreciate it as always man. Have a great week. We'll talk to you next Wednesday. Okay, take care, Tommy. Take care, Teddy. Stay tuned, we'll be right back for one more segment. Don't go away. The Gold Report. As a precious metal, gold is still king. It continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market, the US futures market, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The Gold Report. 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After all, he's got 45 years experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos, and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. TFNN.com, Educating Investors. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. Welcome back, folks. Watch out for this market today, man. We got weakness. We got the S&Ps up by nine points right now, but boy, I was jumping around during the break. We got the Nasdaq 100. We're giving up some of those gains, man. Look where we were at 830 and look where we were even on the opening bell up to 15,965, so only a slight move, but boy, when I was jumping around through some of these fang size, Apple, of course, holding up well, man. Almost maybe a place of safe haven, as is the case usually, right? But Apple, up by half a percent right now, you jump to Microsoft, they give up their gains, man. You just sold off, what, three to $4 on Microsoft shares on the open. How about Nvidia? From 500 to 487, you give up 12 bucks like that and Nvidia is off by 1.7% right now. Amazon shares just traded from 148 to 145. You were near 147 on the open. I mean, check it out, man. Amazon gives back all of yesterday's acceleration. You came into the CPI number at 143. We're now below 145 for Amazon shares. What else we got? Tesla shares up 7.10% right now. Meta shares down 410. And look at these pullbacks, man. Be careful in this market and yields in focus, absolutely remarkable. We're at 108.07, man. We are within that first acceleration that we got right at 830 yesterday. Market's giving it up. Excuse me, as we got the 10-year right now, negative by 22 ticks as I speak right now. And what is that pushing? That's probably gonna be pushing, let's see. No, that's not the one I wanted. All right, let me find it real quick. Man, and as that's talking, I'm seeing a headline that the GM workers, all right, the yield on the 10-year right now, 4.53%. Okay, and let's jump over to GM as we end the program. Yeah, down about 8.10%. GM union workers appear poised to vote down the record. UAW deal. The workers want more. They want more. They're not satisfied. This market's not satisfied, man, as the market's trade lower. Stay tuned, folks. Thanks so much for starting your trading day off right here. We got our man Basil Chapman coming up next with the Tiger Technicians Hour. Steve Rhodes, live at 11, fast market at 12. Larry will be doing a show at one. He's in their live trading right now. Great workshop going on. Mr. Pezzamint does in there at 8 in the morning before my program. And let's end it with the VIX Volatility Index at 14.16. Stay tuned, folks. Basil's up next. Have a great Wednesday. We'll talk to you tomorrow, folks.