 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread that is right here on the fan dual podcast network and Number fire comm as we take a look ahead to week number two and breaking down the best bets on the board with Joe Fortin ball. My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire comm joined here as always by Ed Fang he is over at the power rank calm and the co-host here I cover in the spread as well Ed How you doing today? Thanks for joining me. I'm doing great. I'm looking forward to talking to Joe Fortin ball Yeah He's got a fantastic story about how he broke into the field I told him on my podcast a couple years ago just a great dude and looking forward to his insights Such a hard worker and knows so much. Yeah, and I actually found that episode when I was looking back Today I was on Spotify So I always try to research to make sure I know people how to pronounce people's names And the best way to figure out a pronounce it was listening to you say it Weirdly because like there wasn't a lot like someone said it wrong online. I will I'm not gonna say who said it wrong Someone said it wrong, but right, so you did you did you know? I'm gonna ask Joe, but like you got it, right? They did not the other people did not so Point for Ed fang there for pronunciation We're gonna talk to Joe. He is an analyst on ESPN's Daily wager and also at 97 fire 95-7 the game in the Bay Area We're gonna break down all the big games in week number two. We're gonna talk that crazy line for Pat's Dolphins We're gonna talk Saints Rams and the NSU championship carry your rematch in also talk about the Jets without Sam Darnold and Ed that's a big one today because I was recording our DFS podcast this morning and I got a slack notification that Sam Darnold has mono and I'm like, this is a joke, right? This is nothing that's actually happening, but Touchdown Trevor Simeon. He's a starter again, baby. Let's go. Yeah. I know it's probably like Adam Kaplan You know rolling you. Hey your boy Simeon starting in this jet ski and like Like so many things are going through my head and like I was trying to listen to my co-host Brandon Gadoula talk, but I like blacked out for a solid five minutes Well, I was like and then they announced that Levy on Bell's getting an MRI and I've got so much Levy on Bell and like You know fantasy leagues like dynasty league season long leagues. Yeah, like it's just weird, man And like it's yeah weird and it's really tough for me to handicap because it's so hard like these quarterback adjustments So early in the season. I'm a little better at it late in the season Yeah, but, you know, we talk about more later, but it's just a really hard thing to deal with in week, too Well, I am curious, you know, what do you do in that situation? You know, how much stock do you put in what Trevor Simeon's done in the past because those were with totally different teams? Like how do you personally account for that? Well, Trevor Simeon seems very uh, shall we say meticulous as a quarterback, you know He's got he's got his footwork and compact arm motion, but you know, maybe not a superstar in the NFL So I you know, I don't know what you can make of What he's done before it's obviously a new system different coaching here There's so many other variables that affect things When we have more data later in the season, I like to take like, you know, if you have a backup quarterback Once you have three games, you can kind of look what the market spreads were Put that adjust for who they played and get a pretty decent estimate of where the team ranks with that quarterback And you can get a pretty good estimate of point spread So that's what I'll do later in the season, but that's just impossible right now I mean, he hasn't played for the Jets yet. So, right Uh, it's a tough thing slight difference between throwing to demarius thomas and manual sanders and You know, robbie anderson and james and crowded like i'm not saying anything about their talent. It's different Uh, so it's really hard to just take that as a one-to-one thing and say Simeon will be x or y Based on what he had so I we're gonna talk to joe about this game because I don't know what to do with it But I want to hear what joe says because it's uh, definitely an interesting one If you missed our wednesday podcast breaking down week three at college football, make sure you check that out Just ed and I wrapping back and forth about our thoughts on the week three slate went through iowa Iowa state ed has some good numbers on that one if you want to get that podcast and every podcast here On covering the spread make sure you search for covering the spread on spotify apple podcast Stitcher the google play store wherever you find your podcast You can find covering the spread to get our week three college football breakdown And our week two nfl preview coming up in just one second But first we got to go back through last week and breakdown happened at it. It wasn't a bad week So let's pause here a second come back with that Covering the past All right last week on the nfl edition of covering the spread We had donnie seamoran and donnie did a pretty good job with his bets on the show He wanted the rams against the panthers and the line there was minus two and a half rams one by three So pointed donnie there he wanted the patriots against the stealers and he said specifically Don't bet against the stealers and foc or the patriots at foxborough and they Absolutely took care of business there. We talked about saints texans and donnie said that he didn't want to go in that game Unless the point spread got to seven points and it never did. So it stayed at minus six and a half so Nothing there, uh, which was fortunate because the texans almost won that game. I had mentioned previously jet's bills I said that I wanted the over in that game the total was 38 and a half and we talked about it Went up to 40 and a half, but the under hit. So uh, some tough luck there I took the over on cheese jaguars And it did go over in that game even though nick foals got hurt Even though the jaguars left tackle got ruled out right after we talked about it like Literally 10 minutes after we got off the air. Oh by the way, cam robbins is out. Cool. Awesome Still went over. So we came with it. You mentioned, uh, the falcons plus the points and that game just got out of hand early So, uh, rough one there, but he also had the packers over the bears overall four and two, uh, that that falcons game It's I don't think you can take anything away from that game because it was just it was so So I mean messy early. Yeah, I didn't really like falcons plus points I mean, I I think I actually talked a little about falcons under which I think I guess that wouldn't mean No, my bad. Yeah, that that one kind of got out of control and you know, that one is like weird circumstances Like it wasn't even like the the vikings were definitively better. It was just weird circumstances. Yeah um And it was like block punt Yeah, Minnesota touchdown interception Minnesota touchdown and then that also really screws up our perception of Minnesota too Because they ran on 38 out of 50 plays which makes you want to think yes All these people that were saying that vikings are going to run We're right But I mean you can't take much out of that right because they had two drives in which the you know The score was within two touchdowns. So um Yeah, not much not much you can make uh, so we'll just need to get more data on Minnesota as well You could actually go the other way with that because when the game was within a touchdown, which was about five seconds Kirk Cousins threw I believe on five out of six plays So, okay. Yeah, uh, I think it was he had like 12 throws like the entire game Yeah, he had 10 throws the entire game nine targeted throws, uh and But I think five or six of them were on the first drive So like it's just so I think that game is like overall for both the falcons and the vikings You kind of just throw it out, right? Like I mean, it's going to be in your data, of course But like from a a an evaluation perspective. I throw that game out. I think Interesting I just it was a weird game and sometimes there are weird games like the browns titans game kind of weird With the way that that game flow went, but overall good week last week. So we got to run it back here. Yeah, good I was just gonna say we should probably mention packers plus three even though that wasn't on last week's nfl show I did mention that one. Yeah. Yeah packers plus three and they won that one outright So we you were uh, one-on-one there. I was one-on-one as well. So donny was holding our water So we got a we got to catch up to donny here in week number two We'll talk with joe forton ball in just one second. Once again follow him on twitter at joe forton ball You can find his work over at the daily wager on espn and also at 95 7 the game in the bay area He is a radio host out there. Make sure you follow joe on twitter at joe forton ball before we bring him in though We if you want to get in on the action Check out the vandal sportsbook and place your first bet today if you lose fandal will give you a refund Of up to 500 dollars in psych credit visit sportsbook.fandal.com for more details terms and conditions apply Must be 21 plus and physically present in new jersey or pennsylvania gambling problem call 1 800 gambler So let's look forward to a good week two and bring on joe forton ball to the show Covering the present Let's welcome joe forton ball into covering the spread breaking down week two of the nfl season joe Welcome to you and thank you for taking time out of what I assume is a very busy schedule this time of year How are you doing today gentlemen? I'm doing fantastic and I appreciate the invite to come on the program So thank you very much. You're very diligent with your rundown that you sent over today It looks like we're going to be covering some great content if this doesn't work out You have a future in radio because that's what i'm doing in the mornings And this is exactly what we put together a rundown so it's good stuff Well, my pass is in radio So there's a slight overlap there for sure and it's mostly for my sake Like it's kind of for you, but it's mostly to keep me on track because I'll just talk football all day So I need to have an orderly rundown to make sure we stay on track here But week one uh in the books joe, how did things go for you in week one? You know any any big bets that pulled through for you? I was all right. I try to From years past before I ever really put a lot of work into this you go into week one You make a ton of wagers you end up overextending yourself and you either have this great weekend or this terrible weekend So the the more years and this is the last decade that I've spent trying to be more diligent I've realized week one just kind of ease into it Even if you feel you might have more of an edge here or there just take your time It might not be the smartest business sense, but I don't want to come out of week one Overwhelmed by anything because then that's going to trickle in the week too And I know we're going to talk about overreactions here in a second But I would say it was a pretty solid week I tried to focus on a lot of teasers a lot was tied in the ball tomorrow. Thankfully I didn't need that A lot was tied in the dallas. You didn't even need to tease that either and then there were some totals I missed on the um Tennessee Cleveland total. I really like the under there But the browns melted down in the second half and Tennessee exploded I like the san francisco under as well that would end up hitting So I would say a pretty solid week one There was a slight profit But we're moving in the week two with information that we can apply to some of these teams moving forward So I'm feeling pretty good about it And I always saw the week two is the best week because we actually have some data and we can react to that But the markets will either not react enough to some data or will overreact to other data So when you're looking at week one how it influences week two How much do you take from week one when you're trying to lay down your bets week number two? I apply two key things first and foremost I look at the west gate look ahead lines from last week And they came out last Tuesday And then as soon as the new line surface after all the games are done sunday I compare them and I want to see how big some of the jumps are first and foremost that miami jump That's incredible and absolutely incredible and we all saw that coming But still that is such a massive jump say with baltimore look ahead line They were nine and a half against arizona now. That's up to 13 and a half now These are natural because One of the teams looked bad the other team looked good and as a result you have that movement One of the games I really like this weekend is laying the points with Cincinnati Because that's not a natural reaction in terms of how the public would think public was not high on Cincinnati coming into the season meanwhile San Francisco goes to Tampa they win the game outright by 14 points And they were a very small dog in that game you would think If anything the line's moving to san francisco But the look ahead had the Niners at minus two and a half now it's sitting Cincinnati minus two That's a four and a half point move right there to the losing team This is the only home game in the first four weeks for the bangles And I think we can understand why it's moving. That's one of the key reasons I like Cincinnati you don't want to overreact To say example Lamar Jackson. Hey, he looks better in Greg Roman's offense But he's not going to look like that all year at the same time There's Pete there are snippets of information that that I really do find helpful For example, Bruce Arians is supposed to be the quarterback whisperer He's had a great history But he comes in and james winston looks exactly the same all the way back to florida state careless with the football Bad decision making a lot of check downs holding on to the football too long Arians can only do so much for a guy like that And I think that's one of the pieces of information you don't you're not overreacting too You're seeing the same jamus despite the new system. He's probably going to be the same guy most of the year Excellent joe So you've gone through some of your big takeaways from week one What what other games were you kind of most impressed with or least impressed with? I would say green Bay's defense against chicago the narrative out of there was that trebisky looked terrible But green Bay's defense had a lot of pressure on him and that was a road game too So that one really stood out to me. I would say the rams doing what they did in carolina I like the panthers. That's a that's a cross-country road trip for the rams girl. He's not a hundred percent It's an early start time carolina's an improved football team A lot of the analytics point to them taking a jump taking a step forward They were two and seven in one score games last year So you figure they've got a lot working for them now that newtons at least his shoulders healthier And the rams grabbed the lead and then they held on most of the way I thought that was an impressive win And then the takeaway from the cleveland game is that the browns really aren't ready for all the hype I think the reality there is that tennessee's got a legitimate defense. They were a top five scoring defense last year They went on the road. They stifled an offense. That's got a lot of weapons Tennessee in the under is going to be something i'm going to be keeping a close eye on in the next few weeks And you look at the talent on that tennessee defense too. I think that legitimizes what you just said And i'm very into that as well Let's talk about the 49ers a team that you obviously know a lot about uh over there at 95 7 Focusing on the bay area teams the 49ers You know, they got a win in a sloppy game last week. They go up to Cincinnati you did allude to this before But what's your overall outlook on this game with Cincinnati now minus two in that one? I like Cincinnati for all the reasons I laid out earlier. I'll also throw this in When it comes to the niners, they were 0 and 8 on the road last season That was impressive for them to get that win in Tampa Bay in that heat the bucks might not be very good But the niners haven't been good since jim harball And so they them going on the road to get that win early in the season and to make plays on defense Very important for the team's future Now it's the manner in which they did it that people should be paying attention to you hear about the niners You think about kyle shanahan his offense in jimmy garoppolo Look at the defense. They spent a lot of offseason capital on the defense. They brought in d ford They drafted nick bosa. They've already got the forest buckner in the middle He was a pro bowler with double digit sacks last year Quantile xander is going to be a very big threat in the linebacking core with fred warner stepping in the year two This is going to be a defensive unit. You should watch out for not saying they're going to be the 85 bears So they're going to finish the season in the top five But again that game was totaled at 51 in week one and the Cincinnati games totaled at 45 I think people should look at the nine or defense and realize These guys are better than advertised and the offense is going to continue to struggle For three key reasons one garoppolo is coming back from the acl It's going to take some time to look at his wide receiving unit He has very little experience with any of these guys debo samuels are rookie Uh marquis goodwin has only played a couple games with him Don's apetus only played three games with him last year Kendrick born's only played a handful of games with them richie james has done nothing but catch that touchdown from him last week It's going to take these guys time and number three the offensive line is a little bit susceptible up the middle Or at least that's the narrative now heading into the season So I would keep an eye on the offense struggling maybe early, but the defense playing above the expectation of many It's so where I mean one through 32. Where are you putting your nineers right now? They would probably be I think I had them ninth in the a in the nfc as of this morning When I was going back over everything I had them ninth. I had them right around a tier with like Atlanta I'm expecting Atlanta to be better But I kind of want to hold off because losing at minnesota week one That's fine But getting hammered like that like just getting blown out that that was alarming like they they've got the weapons They should not have gotten beat up all over the field like that Especially with the new offensive line So I like the nineers trending in the right direction the final six games on the schedule are very daunting They're going to have this back-to-back on the east coast where they have an early start time with ball tomorrow in new Orleans It's going to be very challenging late in the year, but I do like them to take a step forward probably an eight and eight team Okay, very interesting. Yeah, Atlanta. I had struggled with a block punt and a turnover early in that game It was kind of over before it even got started. So we'll see how they react We too, uh, Joe wanted to ask you about my favorite game from a betting perspective or at least from the overreaction perspective New england at miami Probably preseason where probably made new england about 12 point favorite in this game But obviously week one happened new england looked great miami looked terrible So you have that small sample size issue and then you have the Counter small sample size issue that new england's lost five of six down in miami. What are you taking away from this game? If it gets to 21, I'll definitely be playing miami I don't I don't know if it's going to get that high But if we were going to sit here and talk about taking a side in the game I'd be looking to miami There's a couple key reasons one and people have been talking about this but not enough Miami's head coach brian flores was working with bellachic last year I don't think bellachic's going to want to humiliate the guy now That doesn't mean he's not going to come out and put up a lot of points early Which might have you thinking about the first quarter in the first half if you think new england's really going to get it rolling But I think long term if new england's having success in this game You're not going to see brady and the starters for four quarters trying to light these guys up They're not going to get any award for style points And I don't think he's going to want to embarrass one of his assistants in the process So that gives us the opportunity at the back door number two miami was humiliated last week We can say what we want about a mutiny. These guys have pride I find it hard to believe they're going to go out there and just lay down for the patriots people get up for the patriots Even teams that might not be all that excited about their outlook for the season. They're going to get up for this game It's just week two number three. You got the heat and humidity that can play a factor for new england and then number four Again back to flores. He knows the patriots. It doesn't mean he's going to be able to concoct a scheme That's going to completely limit and shut down tom brady But if there are weak points, he understands it if there are ways to attack them successfully He understands it. I think you throw all that together Plus it's not college football the clock moves fast in the nfl. That's a lot of points to cover I'd be looking at miami in that situation Yeah, you think about it this way like if it's a 28 to 10 game miami covers So let's talk about a number here. It's at 18 and a half now How high does that number need to get before you bet miami? I mean 21 would be great 21 would be great, but I don't know if it gets there and if you were saying right now I had to pick a side. I take the 18 with miami. I mean, all right We're talking 28 to 10. Do we think miami can get 10 points here and you can find a way into seven In the first three quarters and then you can find a way to another seven in the fourth quarter against the backups That'll give you a 14 right there. That means new england's got to get up to what 32 33 points Now we're talking about a lot in the humidity in week two coming off a very emotional game against the steelers And all these guys are now answering questions about antonio brown I i'm not saying i'd love to jump in at 18, but if we're going to talk about making a play on this right now I take the dolphins at 18. I don't want new england. I say that I don't want to lay all those points And I think that we'll we'll put you down here if it gets to 21 We'll put you down for miami, but I think you know, there's a lot of value in knowing where you'd pull the trigger too And I think 18 and a half may not be your number and maybe it's not here. So I think that makes a lot of sense Let's move now to a little more exciting game with the saints against the rams rematch of the nsc championship game Right now at vandal sportsbook the rams are favored by two and a half total in this one is 51 and a half That has come down, which is interesting But you know it's setting up to be a game that could have pretty major bi-week implications when you're talking about futures bi-weeks matter a lot Both teams got pretty tight wins in week one Which side do you prefer here between the rams and the saints and do you like them enough to bet them at the current number of Two and a half. Yeah, I'll be betting it. I'll get to that in just a second. Um These are two of three good teams in the nfc that I had earmarked for a regression this year I thought the rams saints and bears would all take a step back now. That doesn't mean they'd be terrible I just did not see them performing to the level in which they performed last season and I don't think i'm alone in that In that assertion Especially when it comes to the saints I think a lot of people are going to look at what they saw on monday night Which was a great football game against houston and they're really going to like the revenge angle here for the saints I don't think the saints are all that sharp. They they they were losing. They should not have won that game All right, I don't know what kind of defense they were in late But this is a monday night game to open the season. It's at the voodoo dome They've got all the crowd noise in the world and they were trailing houston the entire way And it's not as if bill o' brian is some great in game strategist, right? And late in this game somehow watson can go to play 70 yards for the touchdown There was no safety back. How does shawn patin allow that to happen? So I don't think the saints I think a lot of people are going to see that game at big man Look at new orleans. They're coming for the rams. The refs are going to be on their side They're going to play up this whole angle and meanwhile here are the rams They go across the country early start time against a good carolina team They grab a lead early they hold on throughout They withstand all the punishment the panthers try to give them and they win that game That's a good clean win for the for the rams. That's they deserve way more credit Like people talking about philly coming back against washington washington's terrible He should win that game at home, but but the panthers are a better team And you're going across the country to play him early I think thought that ramwin was a lot more impressive than people are giving him credit for I would lay the two and a half with los angeles here Interesting I think the saints angle you were talking about is interesting too because we talked a lot about In the all season about regression on the offensive side because drew breeze Kind of showed his age at the end of last year But we saw a lot of regression on the defensive side in that texans game And it seemed like people were actively targeting certain parts of their secondary And the rams are a team that play really well at home Do you have any thoughts on the total in this one? It's 51 and a half right now if you don't that's totally okay Kind of throwing this one out here, but 51 and a half it's gone down Are you looking either side there or is that a pretty fair number? If you're shown Peyton, you probably want to try and attack the rams similar to how bellichick did in the super bowl You're going to want to try to force Golf to have to make decisions without getting all the information defensively like what bellichick did Was he had kind of like that defensive muddle huddle the defensive line in the linebackers? So we're just kind of milling around until late in the play clock so that mcvay couldn't single Signal a golf the play they took advantage of that But golf spent the off season working with mcvay on that and they gave him a 33 million dollar a year contract So I'd have to imagine they feel as if they've solved those issues So you bring the saints outside. Do you want to attack them on the ground? I think maybe shawn Peyton would have that strategy But how long is he going to stick with it when he's got drew breeze and what happens when golf goes off Over the top on him a couple plays early and starts lighting them up. It's going to bait new orleans I think new orleans is more likely to get caught trying to play a ram style of football Then the rams get caught trying to play play a saint style of football. The rams are coming home I'm not saying they have a great home field advantage, but I just I like the idea of them being in control and better coach The saints Feel like a team that might get a little too emotional here They're going to spend the week talking about how they got job They spent all off season crying about how they got job the fans wanted to sue the league That's a distraction. You got to you got to put that stuff behind you and stop worrying about it You got to get on with the next week and that's what the rams have been doing You're not hearing a lot out of the rams. You didn't hear a lot in the preseason You didn't hear a lot in game one. I like the way they've been going about their business Girlie concerns me But I like the way they managed them against carolina They kind of limited his touches until late in the game and then they brought him in to ice it Late by getting the first downs and running out the clock. I thought that was a smart management strategy Yeah, I love the I love the eternal wisdom of uh, you know forget the distractions Just focus on this week only only from joe forton ball there Look at me Want to ask you about what's becoming my second favorite game of the week because we get to talk about kissing girls and mono Browns at jets monday night, uh, I forget where this was before the darn old news It was two and a half. Uh, browns are minus two and a half And so the jets uh go with jim's boy trevor simian Got a big change there. So now we've got browns minus six Uh, what do you make of this game? Not much here. Not much. I I I like the jets prior to the darn old news and now I'm I'm kind of all out of whack. I cleveland I didn't like cleveland as much as everyone else coming to this season. I was on the under for their win total I thought that this was going to be a lot for them early And I wasn't 100 confident that freddy kitchens was going to be able to manage the drama You've already got odell beckham now. He's out there talking about greg williams making comments about him coming after I'm like, this is this is a guy who he was in the spotlight in new york And he didn't have to do much to stay there now He's in cleveland and people like baker may feel more than they like him. This is only going to get worse So I'm looking at this game. It's it's I hate to say it It's kind of just a stay away from me right now. Gase worries me Everyone keeps telling me how good he is the manning family swears by him But i'm not seeing it and the browns have an opportunity to get real messy now all of a sudden They're gonna lay six plus on the road uh new york monday night football I would love to give you a better answer, but there's just not a lot that stands out to me right now Maybe I'll focus on the props for this game. Sure. Let's actually I think that's that's Let's ignore this number then the browns minus six I want to hear your overall thoughts on the browns from week one because you mentioned the titans defense really talented I agree with that But it also did show some of the weaknesses of this browns team because you know greg robinson their left tackle gets ejected Wasn't playing that well to begin with and then their backup left tackle gets hurt There are depth issues here and there are issues on the offensive line Are those issues you expect to persist and does it push you to kind of be Down on the browns overall for the rest of the year too What's the leadership like who are the leaders and are they going to be able to grab control of the locker room? That's going to be the key if mayfield's one of those guys He's going to need to step up and he's going to need to step up soon What was most glaring for me are what I call the discipline stats penalties and turnovers the browns had 18 penalties including an ejection that you just mentioned and they had three turnovers in that game one was a pick six That's a sloppy football team. Now. Maybe that's just 60 minutes and again Tennessee's a good defense But that's what stands out to me. You can go lose a game like Cincinnati did and I can sit there and say That's an impressive loss. You guys played a very good game in a hostile environment against a pretty good opponent No aj green you found a way to play play that game. You found a way to be in that game the The brown balls was not a good loss and it was very sloppy in the process. So that's kind of why it's one of these I'm just going to step back and I'm going to wait to see if they can clean this up If they go to new york and look sloppy again, you know, they got a sloppy head teams take on the personality of their head coach Right andy reed teams are very good like reed is but when it comes to crunch time D4 jumps off sides, right and andy reading crunch time doesn't have a good sense of when he should call his timeouts When he should go for two Like he's sloppy under pressure and last year against the patriots his team was sloppy under pressure You know shone paton's a very aggressive guy in new orleans. His team takes on that personality. They're very aggressive Look at any team ever coached by rex ryan same thing loud Oystrus aggressive physical but not disciplined and not capable of staying under control when the matter When it mattered most i'm going to try to figure out what what it is with freddy kitchens Is he sloppy is he undisciplined? That's what i'm trying to figure out over the next few weeks here Yeah, absolutely great take Joe is there anything else on the board that you like in week two that you want to talk about today? We hit on that niner's game. I would say it's already moved six points But I would look to the over in baltimore and arizona Arizona's defense is going to be horrible this season. All right, they gave up almost 500 yards to the lions Now I know the game went over time and they gave up 27 points That's the lions on the road the lion should not have blown that game This is a a vance joseph defense vance joseph keeps getting these jobs. He's never been good Coaching defense. He had one year in miami. They ranked like 29th in total defense He had two years where he was overseeing the denver defense They were they were giving up 18 points a game when he got there that immediately jumped up to like 22 or 23 points a game They were not as good as they could have been he immediately turned them around and in a bad way So now he's coaching his arizona defense that is without patrick peterson for the first six weeks because of the ped suspension It's either four or six whatever it is. He's not playing in this game And a lot of people will focus obviously on what baltimore just did baltimore didn't need to look that good against miami for me to think about the over here I'm gonna play a lot of I played the lion team total in that game. It was like 25 I'm gonna play the baltimore team total here. I'll probably be doing that a lot against arizona early And kingsbury is going to want to throw it all over the place They'll probably find a way to get their points up there. So sitting 46 and a half That should probably be be closer to 50 in my opinion Interesting and robert alford also out for arizona. So it's a tough personnel as you mentioned the coaching there questionable too Uh, totally understand that anything else you want to mention on the board here before we close up shop I I find myself intrigued by jacksonville plus nine and a half and if it gets to 10 I'll definitely been there be there Um, this is still a divisional game Like it's still a divisional game against houston. So they're familiar with that team And I know that people are starting to become infatuated with garter garter mints gardener minchew the quarterback He was capable last week now. Maybe he won't be capable this week, but houston's on the short week They just lost the heartbreaker in the warlands They're gonna come back here to play the jacks the jacks still have a good defense Like this is kind of one of those if you embarrass yourself in week one with that myles jack Ejection you got to step up here and play better this this feels to me like more of an ugly football game You you just saw houston in this beautiful high scoring monday night game I think this one gets ugly and when you've got a total sitting out there around 44 I'll take nine and a half with the dog in that situation. Vegas is telling me they expect it to be lower scoring I think the jacks can find a way to score their points. It sounded like you two liked it as well I just think it's interesting because usually a quarterback like foals goes out. You're gonna see a big adjustment and um I can't recall exactly what the adjustment is But we got a little bit of data. It's about six six and a half from a six six and a half points That's like erin roger's type numbers, right? Yeah, and uh, you know if gardener minch You kind of looked like any other rookie last week. I'd be like sure maybe maybe five maybe four or five points But he didn't obviously it's a small sample size Um, but you know, I mean the you should probably take a little bit of that into consideration I don't know. It seems a little big for me I'm with you on that. See that's that's and that was exactly my logic too every time roger's goes down You hear about this six or seven point move six points for nick foals I got like nick foals, but I don't think that's a six point move right there. Yeah I think that's totally logical for sure. Uh, so we'll see if gardener minch You can pull off that magic and cover that spread that is joe fortenbaugh once again Follow him on twitter at joe fortenbaugh joe. I want to thank you for stopping by for today Uh, good luck in week number two and hopefully we'll talk to you again soon Anytime guys. It was my pleasure. Thank you for having me on absolutely. Good luck Covering the future Big thank you once again to joe fortenbaugh for swinging by and dropping some knowledge here on covering the spread Follow him on twitter at joe fortenbaugh And you can find him on 95 7 the game in the bay area and also want espn's daily wager and ed You know, I think this I think this jet situation is kind of hard to diagnose because if you can't You know get a real Concrete thing and joe can't either I feel better about the fact that I have no idea what to expect too So I feel better about myself at least Yeah, it's it's just we just let the markets figure it out. Let's see where this number closes Compare it to what we would have expected and then we got a little bit of an estimate for your board of trevor sent me And it also helped too because I'm going to be talking about uh, the 49ers in bengal So I'm glad that I heard joe's insights on the 49ers It's always good to hear people who have really good insights on a certain team So I do value that and we'll talk about that in covering the future in just one second But first add and I always preach searching for the best value when betting on games Well, look no further than the new odds comparison our engineers have developed over at number fire dot com Odds fire is the premier odds comparison experience across major bookmakers in the regulated us market compare odds Quickly identify the best value and even examine first party fan dual data all in one place Never settle always get the best odds check out the experience for free now at number fire or at odds fire dot com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler. Let's dive in now to covering the future here ed And uh, what are you doing for cover the future here as we get into week number two of the nfl season? Yeah, I'm interested in Tennessee at at indy here. Okay, so we got to talk about Tennessee. Uh, they look pretty good week one at cleveland Uh, we talked about uh, your boy marcus marriota and his 7.7 yards per pass attempts Uh, but that might be a little bit deceiving. Uh, just in the sense that you know, there was a couple big plays there, uh, big pass to Derek Henry Um, so maybe not the best thing to look at but you gotta remember Tennessee was on the road and a statistic that tends to be more sticky and predictive Into the future or at least has less randomness than yards per play is success rate And Tennessee did pretty good in this care area, too They had about a 42.6 success rate. Uh, pretty much about nfl average, but that was better than what cleveland did 39.7 for cleveland and You know, my numbers are bumping up tennessee a little bit slightly above average Uh, I think indy is a little bit below average. Um, and I think they're probably a point or two worse You know, we've talked a lot about indianapolis. They lost andrew lock. I mean, they were they were kind of A super bowl contender. They've dropped quite a bit. Um, and When when you put so I guess what i'm trying to say there is that you know, even even when I have my numbers I think they're a little bit too high on indy. I would have like the under On on their wind or I would have leaned towards the under on their wind total as well so You know right now my numbers have tennessee as three points better than indianapolis And I think that's too much and part of that is because of the way that I make adjustments So I'm looking at you know, what it how tennessee performed on the scoreboard Compared to what the line was and so when you beat a team by 30 and you were five and a half point dog You're gonna look pretty good And and the scoreboard was a little bit deceiving in that game a bunch of interceptions late A picks six that really widened the gap if you look at the underlying metrics like I told you earlier It was a lot closer still I think tennessee gets a little bit of a bump And I I think there's a signal here to lean towards tennessee minus three. Um, I think they're the the team to go here Your boy mario is healthy and I think he gets it I think he gets it done against a colt's defense that i'm still really suspicious about I think that the key thing that you talked about there was expectations because with tennessee going to cleveland Even though I am like this hopeless marcus mario to truth My expectations were low and they were missing the left tackle taylor lawan who will still be out this week But the fact that they went into cleveland against a defensive line that has miles garret olivia vernon Sheldon richardson and they were still able to have the success rate that you mentioned league average in that context When you're facing the browns on the road I think is very much a positive like league average doesn't sound great But to me when I consider the context of that game It is now they turn around and they go home and they face an indie defense that I agree with you We should be skeptical about because last year they were I think 20th, uh overall based on number fires metrics defensively And I don't think that fully accounts for the fact that they faced a couple of backup quarterbacks Including blaine gabbert when marcus mario was out. I think they faced brach osweiler in a game Like they faced a lot of dudes who were not a lot of teams that were not at full health And that and just a week Week schedule in general, right? And that makes me think that even though they were 20th by number fires numbers, which does account for schedule I would probably rate them lower than that personally And what they did in los angeles against a another team that did not have their left tackle Didn't do a lot to dissuade me from that So I agree Tennessee impressed me more in week one and if I were to go with the side here I would probably take them and I think that It's it's good that you are mentioning expectations. I think that's a really important way to look at and actually joe did too You know talking about the rams in week one facing a tough team on the road 1 p.m. Start time You could say they exceeded expectations And that's a I think a smart way to look at things this early in the season Yeah, absolutely. All right. So you've got the titans minus three Yesterday I talked chargers lions and that was another one where right where we talked about it a lot of injuries happened Now hunter henry is out. Mike williams is doubtful. So it's still 47 and a half I want to get that number while it's still 47 and a half whereas I was okay with waiting yesterday Now I want to dive in I also want to talk about another total And it's a game that we talked about with joe and he was talking about the 49ers and the bangles And this game does not feature high powered offenses and there are some injuries But the injuries aren't running back and that doesn't matter all that much Like in fact, it could push teams to pass more which is going to be good for the over here as well And I think there are going to be a lot of plays in this game So while I would agree with joe that the 49ers defensive line is good And I think that the bangles defensive line is better than expectation too I still want the over here if we look back at last year Even when jimmy garoppolo was out the 49ers still ranked 10th in situation neutral pace That is from football outsiders and in week one they did run the ball a lot more than I would have expected But they are still fifth in situation neutral pace. That's based on one game But seeing them there is interesting interesting to me last week was the first time We saw the spangles team with zack taylor as their head coach and they were really pass heavy They threw 80 percent of the time overall And 78 percent of the time on first and second down and both those numbers Were the highest marks in the entire league and that was a neutral game script the entire game against seattle And you don't expect teams to throw 80 percent of the time when it's a close game the entire time Neither offense here is great, but the defenses aren't great either. I don't think they're bad You know as joe mentioned, but they're not great and I think that I'm going to Lean on the play volume in this game and go with the over here I'm going with 45. That's where it's out of andral sports book right now It is 45 and a half in some other places. So I would say if you want to bet the over here I would do so now because three fourths of the tickets and the money are on the over according to odds fire So I'm going to bet that one right now Give me over on the 49ers and the bangles at 45 And I've also got the over on chargers lions at 47 and a half ed has the titans minus three Ed anything else you want to toss in here before we close up shot for today Yeah, I mean we should just talk about like kind of how lopsided yardage wise the Cincinnati Seattle game was I talked a lot about how I didn't really believe in Seattle this preseason They did get the win. I think what were they a 10 point favorite nine point favorite? I think it closed. It's nine and a half. It was 10 at one point, but I think it went back to nine and a half Um, so they get a one point win At home, but you know Cincinnati almost had double the yardage. So 429 compared to 233 for for Seattle Cincinnati was efficient as well seven yards for pass attempts. Obviously a lot of pass attempts there So that game was really kind of deceiving and And it points to you know, maybe since that is a little bit better You know a lot of a lot of places Cincinnati was borderline bottom five team in the NFL Uh, obviously, you know, not much expectations with the new coach I think you know with with changing the regime a little bit. It's something they hadn't done in a very long time Uh, people expected a little bit of a dip, but maybe maybe not. I mean, we only have a one game sample so far But the early returns were good for france golden in that offense now I mean, it is to see hawk's defense. Sure. You know, I don't think it's going to be very good Uh, so so we'll see and you know, I'm looking forward to another two weeks of data So I can start making a pulmonary adjustments Uh in my numbers, but um, but yeah, that that game was really deceiving Even on the scoreboard even though Cincinnati covered Um, so look at the underlying numbers there for sure. Yeah, you were talking to people out in the Bengals That was me. Uh, I was firmly against the Bengals. They were starting the third string left tackle It wasn't their first string not their second string their third string left tackle in week one I was like, oh cool. Judevian clowny. Like, you know, they're not going to do anything here So I was very much anti-Bengals, but Again, exceeding expectations and knowing the context around it knowing that they were in Seattle on the road against Not a great defense, but I would say probably not a bottom five defense and seeing them do what they did But mostly for me it revolved around Zach Taylor being that pass heavy that to me says over I don't know how effective they'll be given their offensive line But I still think that the over here is a pretty good play. That's all we got for the week two NFL show Again, we had the week three college football podcast as well find that by searching for covering the spread Wherever you get your podcasts and while you're there make sure you subscribe rate and review the podcast as well Thank you to those who have left ratings and reviews. It does help us out of tons We really do appreciate every single one of those and what you got popping over at the power rank and on the football analytics show this week Yeah, so I had dr. Eric Eager a pro football focus on the football analytic show Really interesting discussion. Uh, he's done some interesting work to to show that You know quarterbacks own their sacks a little bit more than we thought so a little bit more of the The blame maybe should go on them as opposed to the offensive line sometimes And it's kind of changing how I watched some of these games You think about the Monday night game with Deshaun Watson and you know, they had the worst sack rate in the league last year Washington shape Harrison at Michigan And his decision-making so so it's interesting You know when when these studies come about and he talked about a lot of other interesting things as well Um, but it's interesting when you kind of hear about these data driven studies and it affects how you see these games And it it definitely is for me And uh, I have that I'm going to the gym tomorrow morning I had that queued up to listen to that tomorrow because I love offensive line. I think that that That wrestle back and forth is very interesting. So I'm looking forward to giving that a listen tomorrow Yeah, and you have to have a good offensive line too like no one's saying, you know You can't it's it's not a right. It's not an offensive line doesn't matter discussion It's a do they matter in sacks as much as the quarterback does, you know So I think that's I'm looking forward to hearing that tomorrow I think it should be a good discussion follow ed on twitter at the power rank You can also follow me on twitter at jim sanis j i m S a n n e s if you have any questions about this week's show or next week's show And you can follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to calvin thea ball for working the video side of things here today and keeping us on the air as always Thank you cal and a thank you to everyone for tuning in and checking out this week's episodes We'll talk to you again next week for more college football and more nfl This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network