 And now my year 23, going on my year 23 year, and again, I've seen this before. This isn't something that I've looked at now and I go, wow, I can't believe this is going on. You know, we got to sit on our hands. This is, oh, this is an opportunity. Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access to Trader.com. We can update show, hope everybody is doing well. So crazy start to the year, right? Again, you're not going to hear any, you know, you're not going to hear any pity parties coming out of me, anything negative coming out of me, anything that's somber, the idea that this is a funeral that we're all attending, this is the stock market, right? This is the absolute stock market. I know a lot of you guys are great, great people, and this is kind of your first entry to kind of what declining stock prices look like, right? This is literally the first time a lot of you guys have been trading for less than two, three years, and some of you guys have been trading for two, three months, and all you've seen has been steady rising stock prices. You've seen incredible moves, just absolute incredible moves, especially in the last five years, stocks going from three to 300, it's been crazy, but the one thing that most of you guys have not experienced has been the decline, and declining stock prices as the classes all over the board is real. And when you go back to the start of my career, again, this isn't the first time we talked about it, 2001 and 2003, I couldn't make a dime, right? I was coming off the euphoria of the internet craze and years and years later, I've realized and admitted it was completely lucky, right? I was completely lucky, my first 18 months in this business that the internet was here, and this is a free-for-all, doesn't make a difference what you bought, again, if you've ever watched that interview with me and Meyer Hoffman, the late great Meyer Hoffman, he said, you know, look, we got lucky, right? He didn't say in those words, but we got lucky. Basically, the market made you right. Any prices that you bought weren't important, as the point is, the market made you right, and that's what's been going on for three, four, five years, and a lot of, unfortunately, new traders got caught up into, doesn't make a difference where I buy, I could chase at any level, the market would always make me right, and that was great, and that was fantastic, and that was the case, and now it's not, right? And instead of sitting there, what I did from 2001 to 2003 didn't make a dime, was absolutely my worst moments in my life, those darkest moments, suicide was very, very real in my mind, I went over it many, many times, because I couldn't figure out, how could I have done so well during the internet craze and not make a penny throughout these years, and I was depressed, and it was incredibly tough time of my life, but I realized years later when my wife pretty much gave me an ultimatum, it's over, right? It's over, that great part of your life is over, and now you're in this crap, and the crap is, how are you going to get out of this crap? You can mentally let this crap and let your circumstances completely consume you on a day-to-day basis, and windle you down and take you down mentally, or you could do something about it, and again, the one thing that the stock market, and I've always said this, it's not there to make you whole, it's not there to give you that fix of euphoria, or that gambling fix, whatever you want to call it, it's the stock market, it's the stock market. Again, if you go from the 1927 crash, to kind of where we are this morning, you'll notice the same thing, the stock market will go up, traditionally go up and gulf in a lot of bad news, and then eventually it will go down again only to wipe out a whole generation of new traders and start the cycle right back again, and again, it's too early to say how deep this decline is going to be, but the one thing that I figured out by 2003, and although my wife did give me pretty much an ultimatum, say, hey, listen, that's cool at all, you did great during the dot-com craze, it's two years later, our money supply is depleting, well, what do you want to do next? You got to get a job, and I got a lifeline on another trading desk because of what we did during the dot-com era, and I got lucky again, it was the right place at the right time, but I finally figured out how to, I finally figured out because I bought some time in between 2004 to kind of 2007, I kind of bought myself some time to figure out how the game works very, very first innings at it, and it really did take me about 10 to 12 years to finally get comfortable in my own skin, and now my year 23, going on my year 23 a year, and again, I've seen this before, this isn't something that I've looked at now and I go, wow, I can't believe this is going on, we got to sit on our hands, this is an opportunity right now, so you have two choices, you could sit there, feel sorry for yourself, because you've never seen it before, which is fine, which is absolutely normal, or you can take the environment you have, and kind of try to make something out of it and put yourself in a position of strength instead of a position of weakness, again, this market did not fall for the first time in the last couple of days that everybody's so surprised, the market's been falling, you have a lot of these growth stories we've been talking about for once now, a lot of these growth stories have gotten destroyed, I mean, absolutely destroyed, you had NET, I mean, look at these moves, you had NET going from 221 into the 80s, you have UPST that had this incredible, I mean, there's a lot of it, some of these stocks have gotten 50, 70% haircuts, it's not something that you woke up to one day and say, wow, these stocks are really getting killed, yeah, and the only difference between now what you're seeing as far as the indexes go and what you started seeing in November was the stocks, and people realize this, people stop paying for potential, okay, it's like, again, if eventually, with all the Kobe Bryant's and Kevin Garnett's and Tracy McGrady's, they got drafted out of high school, they were great, they were paying for potential, there came the Kwami Browns, right, there came guys that you've never heard of before, and then eventually all these GMs, they said, oh, wait a minute, I don't know how great it is to draft these guys out of high school and they stop paying for potential and that's exactly what happened here, all these stocks had these massive, massive runs and people didn't care what prices they were buying, eventually they said, ah, we're good, and the only real reason Main Street really started feeling the facts, most people don't know what a UPST is, they don't know what an NET is, they don't know what a letter U is, but they know what Apple is, and most funds and mutual funds and index funds are holding it, they know what Amazon is because again, most index funds and mutual funds and hedge funds are owning them, and once those stocks start to get pulled, that's when people started paying attention, so yes, the sell-off came in November, right, of growth stories, but the real money flow, right, the institutional holdings that we've been seeing and talking about, and primarily I've been trading for years and years and years, the beta names, now they started feeling the effects and what you started seeing in November and you can make an argument, stocks being sold then, that's great, but my world, right, my world of these names, of these high beta mega cap technology names, once they started cracking, that's when the money flow started coming out and there was a buyer strike for institutional money flow, so nobody cared about UPST at 225 if a mutual fund doesn't even know this company's alive, but they start caring when Amazon starts cracking down, when Netflix starts cracking down, when Apple and Facebook and NVIDIA and Tesla, right, that's kind of a big deal and that's kind of where we are, and when you look at all the indexes, you know, it's really pretty, pretty ugly, right, you got an 11% decline on the queues, you know, three weeks into the year, right, you know, that's a pretty, pretty big decline, you got nearly a 7.6% decline just for the week, you know, very, very aggressive, but more important, it shouldn't, you know, especially if you've been watching this broadcast or just a pure enthusiasm from the chart basic technical analysis point of view, you saw the breakdowns, you saw the breakdowns off the 50s, you saw the breakdowns off the 100, you saw the breakdowns off of the 150-day moving average, just kind of watching this video the last few days, and here's the problem, you know, now we've closed below the 200-day moving average two days in a row, and that's a big deal because the longer we build below the 200-day moving average, the higher probability you're going to see further decline in prices, and when you look at the monthly chart just to give an idea where the potential next level can be, right, we talked about this on Wednesday or Thursday's video, any close below this macro trend line starts the next cycle to the next rising monthly support and the next monthly rising support, again, especially if you believe in the theory of stocks trading from supply to supply, well, you know, stocks trade then from demand to demand, and this demand is all the way to 328 on the Qs, which considering we closed at 351, yeah, you got a pretty good amount of downside to go. Now, again, I think because social media, and unfortunately, you guys, a lot of you guys are only just subjected to the views of social media, you know, the story is always buy the dip, bears never learn, buy the dip, bears never learn, bears learn, right, there's a reason why bears are bears and the reason why bulls are bulls, they're usually one-sided and they stay in that direction, and bears have been winning, even with this whole big cycle for the last five years, again, if you're a good technician or even a pretty decent technician, you could pick your spots to the downside, you don't need to catch stocks going to zero, maybe just catch stocks going to the channels, but you know, this is kind of their game, right? You know, I'm not a perma bull, I'm not a perma bear, I'm a perma realist, and you know, I've trade both sides of the market, I've seen this, I've seen this movie now from 2001 to 2003 to 2007 to 2009, the question is, and this is where something we don't have an answer to, the question is how long will this decline will be? The optimism, right, the optimism in all of us, right, because everybody loves the bull market, the optimism in all of us will turn around and say, wow, so it should only be another couple of days, eventually stocks are already oversold, they're not, guys, they're not, the queues have gone from 164 to 400, they're not oversold, that's the whole point, and again, you can start making that conversation, that argument in the first two weeks of 2001, after 9-11, in the first couple of weeks after 2007, when they started talking about the mortgage crisis, they lasted for two, three years, again, I'm not trying to scare anybody, and these are facts, you can go back and look at your charts, go back to your history books, this is exactly what happens, I would love, in a perfect world, for the bulls to kind of wash out, throw the baby out the bathwater this week, and reclaim the 200-day moving average, and start this really aggressive cycle back to the backup, nobody would love it more than me, again, I love a good bull run, but I also am a realist, I understand how to read chart prices, I understand how to read charts, and again, if you look at the monthly, right, the monthly view on the queues, and you have $3.28 is your next measure potential, not saying it's going to get there, but it's your next measure potential, you have eyes, and again, this is the greatest indicator in the world, without the whole fibonacci, and this is not the other thing, the VWOPs, and no matter, the channels, the indexes, right, if you have eyes, and you can see where your next potential landing spot is, and you have to be mentally prepared for that, and that's the most important thing, it's not fear monitoring, it's just kind of reality, and the most important part is guys, even if you are traders, you've got to get that whole, you know, buy the dip mentality out of your head, buy the dip, and I've been saying this for years, buy the dip is something that is in a bull market cycle that stocks are coming off their highs, and coming back into this 60 minute, either rising 60 minute channels, or rising daily support, when the stock market is underneath supply, and this is not just the queues, this is the queues, these are the spies, right, they're all beneath supply, under the diamonds, okay, this is not a time that you turn around and say, this is the first day underneath supply, the second day underneath supply, macro supply, that started years ago, this is not your first time and say, all right, Monday, here's my shopping list, the market can't possibly go any lower, these are gifts, these are free shares, this is free money, not so fast, right, not so fast, again guys, remember, stocks need to be above demand to go long and below supply to continue selling, and we are the mother load, right, we've closed, not like we closed below the five day, the shortest term sentiment, we've closed below the 200 day moving average, and that's the mother, mother, mother loads of demand, and that's gonna be an absolute issue, and when you look at the catalyst, or lack of catalyst, kind of coming up to this week, number one, you saw earnings kickoff this week, you saw the banks, you know, disappoint, right, you got banks disappoint, you got JP Morgan, you got Goldman Sachs, you had Netflix kickoff earnings, right, they kicked off earnings, the subscribers growth was not great, you had some news in the market about Peloton, and again, nobody should be turning around and say, wow, I can't believe it, I've been, I've been so, you know, I'm so stunned that the stock went down, I mean, the stock is just getting destroyed, right, so some news, some extra news that came out, and again, we don't know if it's even real, there's some news, there's some contrary news turning around and saying, well, the news of potential production halts on their treadmills and their bikes, yeah, that might not be true, we don't know, right, we saw the news come in on Thursday, the stock got destroyed, and then we got some defense coming in and say, hey, maybe, you know, maybe this is some false narratives that somebody started and the stock bounced back a little, we'll never know, right, we'll never know until we have a definitive statement coming summer, again, but the point is, look at the stock, do you really want to be long Peloton going into Monday, maybe it goes up, maybe it doesn't, right, maybe there's a Deccat bounce at some point, at some point, even Blackberry, right, you know, when everybody started switching to iPhones and Samsungs and even the Google Pixels, people turn around and say, how could Blackberry still be alive? Well, yeah, they have billions of dollars of intellectual properties, that's how Blackberry stayed alive, so Peloton could drift through a trifle, which kind of bounced back, but their intellectual property makes them sexy, that's why the stock will not go to zero, they also, by the way, have a tremendous cold following, again, I have a Peloton, I don't really use it, I've used it five times maybe in five years, but my wife does and there's a lot of people that have a tremendous, tremendous love for the product and it is a huge for cold following and the fact that they have X amount of millions of riders, that is value, combined with their intellectual property, so the stock will not go to zero, okay, I think it's very, very silly just the way Blackberry didn't go to zero, but again, do you really want to own the stock, just like owning anything else in the market coming in Monday and just because we've seen prices decline in the stock market, well now you're seeing it coming across of all asset classes, you see Bitcoin getting hit, right, you see Bitcoin getting hit, I'm personally waiting to make my first investment of Ethereum, I think at some point this weekend, I will, right now it's like 2,400, I can see drifting to 18, I know nothing about crypto, but if you believe in the whole theory that this is like the first stages of the next big thing of this whole blockchain, this, that, the other thing, hey, it's worth the shot, right? Anyway, from like 1,500 to 2,500, if you're willing to hold it five, 10 years, you gotta look at it yourself and this is the way I'm kinda looking at it, either Ethereum is gonna go to zero, it's gonna go back, it's gonna go to 10,000, either way, allocate some capital to where you are in five years, don't ever invest in something that you eventually can't see going to zero and again, is it possible, Ethereum in five, 10 years goes to 10,000? Absolutely, is it possible it goes to zero? Absolutely, right, there's no such things as guaranteed, so anything that you're investing long term, well, it has to be long term and you almost in the back of your heads have to say to yourself, I'm allocating these funds if they go to zero, it kinda sucks, but again, make sure they have no bearings on your long term financial goal, financial plan and make sure it doesn't hurt your wallet and you know, that's sitting there up 24 hours a day checking prices, that's what investment is, again, you can invest in precious metals, you can invest in art, you can invest in Bitcoin and Ethereum and anything else in the stock market, make sure again, it's not emotionally taking you to the woodshed and really damaging the overall quality of your life, so if you can't hold something, don't invest in it, if you can't wrap your mind around it, don't invest in it and the most important part is this is business, is a business, it's just like anything else, it's like the way a carpenter would handle his tools, just the way a waitress would handle her notepad, it's a business, handle this business just like anything else, detach yourself from this business, detach yourself from it from your personal life, from anything you have going on because at the end of the day, it's just another end to make means and it shouldn't concentrate and it should spill over into your personal life, so again, is it possible to get some sort of relief rally this week? Yeah, sure, of course, but again, the most important part and you've kind of seen it throughout the whole week, any single time, there's been any type of rally, literally, any type of rally in the queues and they get slammed, right? They go back into supply and then they get slammed, another rally and then they get slammed, that's been happening the whole week, so is it possible we have a dead cat rally this week? Yeah, at some point, right? But the key is that the queues, they have to reclaim this 367 level, they have to, if you're looking to swing a position, you're not looking to catch a knife, you're looking, at least technically, for the market to give you a green light, at least in the short term, to give yourself a point of reference, so if I'm looking for a longer term play, aren't you at least, if you wanna buy Microsoft, if you wanna buy Apple, shouldn't you at least wait for the queues to reclaim, for the bulls to reclaim back, short term technical damage and start closing above prices when they broke down? That's the smart play, you can't just sit there and go Microsoft is cheap at 300, then Microsoft is cheap at 280, Microsoft's cheap at 260, Microsoft's cheap's 240, there's no guarantees these things ever come up, so again, the optimism in all of us, are gonna turn around and say, hey, the market is way oversold, although it's not, it's gonna come back this week and may not, but the most important part is again guys, don't guess, okay, we're all bad guessers, don't guess, it's all about data, and right now, if you look at a lot of charts, then don't even look at the ones that are overextended, start looking at the ones that haven't broken down, so I'm very, I mean, again, how can you be bull biased? Again, possible, get a dead cat bounce at some point this week? Sure, absolutely, but I am by no chance, absolutely no chance, buy bias until we reclaim, until we reclaim at least the 200 day moving average on the queues, and again, if you look at a lot of charts, you're not looking at Amazon right now, you're not looking at Amazon after this breakdown here of 3124, that's 300 points lower, although again, it could go down, you're looking for stocks that just started breaking down, and again, we'll get to the pivots in a second, but you're looking for channels that haven't broken down yet, right? Like look at Xilinx, look at Airbnb, right? Look at Airbnb's channel, right? Look at a channel like ZS, right? Just first close confirming this whole channel. Look at a chart like Visa, right? About to confirm this whole channel here, right? Look at Monster that came back down, got rejected off the five day moving average, back to back days, look at which room it still has back to the downside. So you're not supposed to be looking at stocks that are already down 50, 70% for short, so you're looking for stocks that are breaking down out of the channels, and once they confirm those channels, if the market continues to be weak, those are the stocks that are gonna catch up and get pulled down just like everything else we're seeing. So obviously Netflix kicked off earning season, which is not a great thing for technology. It's one of the reasons why they got slammed on Friday. You got IBM on Monday. Let me see what else is on Monday. IBM, pretty much IBM is the biggest one. You got IBM on Monday, but then you start going into heavy technology. You got Microsoft on Tuesday, Microsoft, J&J, triple M. You got AXP, you got Texas Instruments. And then you got Wednesday, right? You got Wednesday, all eyes on Tesla. You got all eyes on Tesla. You got all eyes on Intel. You got Boeing. You got AT&T. You got Las Vegas Sands, Lands Research. You got a lot of slew, and then you start going into Apple on Thursday, Visa on Thursday, then next week, right? You got everything else. You got Amazon, Google, Facebook. So we're starting, right? We're starting into earning season. The question is, and I've experienced this in so many markets, a lot of times, unless the earnings just blow away the numbers, okay? No matter what they say, they're going to sell off the stock based on market conditions. And I kind of talked about that on right before Netflix's earnings, they would have to blow earnings away, okay? For the market not to just say, hey, who cares, keep on selling? And that's exactly what happens. So again, day two underneath, the 200-day moving average on the cues, first day on the spies, first day on the diamonds. Again, not a great look for the market. So let's talk about Fridays. Let's talk about Fridays. Pivots, oops, wrong one. Let's talk about Fridays. Pivots, again, you know, pretty much sell bias all across the board. Again, I don't want to buy anything. You know, you can get a dead cat bounce in the middle of the day. I'm good, right? I'm good. I'm waiting for all these stocks. It's very, very rare. You're going to see a buy pivot until we start really, really reclaiming big support. So this was the big one, right? For all you guys who are swinging it overnight, you have to, they report on Wednesday. Maybe you get one more pull, but this was definitely the trade of the day, at least for me, 980 huge level of support. If it builds below, it can flush. Tesla got smoked, right? Just like everything else. Tesla got absolutely smoked. It took out the 980, and this is the first close off rising support. They do report on Wednesday. You know, you probably get a lot of dip buyers coming in. Late Tuesday, early Wednesday for the close. Again, I don't know what's going to happen. I love Tesla, right? But again, loving a company loving channels are two different sides. Long short, I think if Tesla confirms, you can see here, you know, you had a 50 point move on Tesla. If Tesla confirms Friday's channels, it has room to about 912. So if you believe in the store, right? If you believe in the whole prospects on Tesla, maybe take a shot there, right? If that's your thing, right? If that's your thing for a longer term play, but yeah, there's a high probability. If we do confirm Friday's channels, we go back down to 912. Facebook got smoked, 313 has held three times pre-market for builds below can flush. Here was Facebook, right? Here was Facebook, all the way down to 303. I think as a shot, if it confirms Friday's prices goes down to 295, testing the December 3rd lows, that was good. Let's see here, let's see here. Peloton never got there. I'm still watching Peloton, Microsoft. Again, they're taking down the bigger names, right? 350, 300, huge level, if it builds below can flush more. Here was Microsoft, right? So here's Microsoft took out this whole channel here, traded down to like 95 and change. Again, if it confirms more, should get down to about 290 and kind of reflecting all the indexes that it's a part of. So again, more lower prices there as well. Xilinx held 184, I still like it. This thing loses that 184, it's gonna get hit. Dollar Tree, I wasn't watching. I sort of got down to like, I don't think Dollar Tree had a big move at all. Yeah, it only went down like a dollar and change. I still think Dollar Tree probably sees 122, but it's not really my thing. So here comes Facebook. There was actually a daily channel of 315, but it doesn't make a difference. 315, 313 went down to 303, Microsoft coming down. Tesla, I said cover more down here at 958, 960. It's traded down to 935 after hours. Here, it's getting smacked. Facebook's getting smacked. Everything's getting smacked, blah, blah, blah. So that's it, right? That's it. I don't have to be too creative, guys. Stay away from anything that is overextended. Again, yes, can Amazon still go lower? Absolutely, but again, I would always remember the theory. You always wanna be wrong, right? You always wanna be wrong jumping out of the first floor then jumping out of the 10th floor, right? So if you jump out of the first floor and you get hurt and they hold the ranges, you're gonna get a paper cup, right? You're gonna get a bruised knee. If you jump out of the 12th floor window after it already broke down here, you're gonna die, okay? So just remember, the same pivot, right? The same pivot come Monday morning on Tesla at 980 macro breakdown is a completely different story. If Tesla starts going to 930, 929, 10, completely different story. One part you could survive with a hickey. The other part, you got a severed head, so be careful, even though it's the same symbol, the highest, the further it goes from the pivot, from the daily macro channel, the higher probability your level of success is gonna start shrinking and shrinking and shrinking. That's why there's only one pivot and everything else is confirmation and continuation. Guys, have a great weekend. God bless, be happy, crack a smile. We only have one life to live. There are no do-overs. Guys, God bless and I'll see you on Monday.