 Okay, hello and welcome to episode 86 of the market maker podcast. And we've not planned this in terms of preparation of what we're specifically going to say. But I told peers we normally record this conversation first thing on a Friday morning just to cut us some slack later on in the day but it's been a super busy day particularly for me being the person that's keeping a watchful eye going on in markets. And that's because the UK Prime Minister Liz Truss has just held a, I guess you can call it an emergency press conference, because the Chancellor has been sacked earlier on today and she just come out and made a statement so I haven't caught up yet with you peers on what you thought but she's literally just finished she spoke for eight minutes and took just four questions. But what was your before we delve into what's been said and actually what's happened all week and what is going on. Initial thoughts. What do you think. Well the, the emergency press conference what finished about 20 minutes ago. And I think I've only just stopped laughing at just the ridiculousness of all of this. I mean it's. Yeah I mean she's. She's just, it's like a rabbit in the headlights now isn't it I think she's thrown quasi under the bus. Fair enough. But obviously the big question is well why didn't she throw herself under that same bus because it's not like this plan was quasi you know, it's not like he just. came up with this master budget and then put it on Liz's desk just to sign off I mean we're led to believe this is entirely the whole budget thing was an entirely joint endeavor, you know, joint almost like ideology. And they masterminded it together. And then, yeah, obviously it's a disaster would be a big understatement and yeah, I got you know someone's got to go but yeah how she can still stay there I don't know but I, it's hard, because if she doesn't want to go, which clearly she doesn't at this point. So Boris a few, well a few months ago now the only way, the only way he got forced out was by the cabinet, just en masse resigned, pretty much it was just like one after the other after the other after the other and it was like okay. I don't have a choice but unless that happens I mean she's just going to continue to wade on through this kind of this this this swamp that she's created. Well yeah there is the, I think there's the technical process now that she can't technically be challenged because of the fact she's just come into leadership, because of the timeframe of the process of what that entails. However, it only I read one thing saying it only takes an afternoon meeting of the back benches committee to then flip that role and toss around anyway so you can't. One of the things I thought with with this conversation was I didn't really want to really talk about it too much because probably by Monday and we've been everything would have changed so it's hard to say anything concrete at this point. Yeah, I mean one of the things from where I sit is I have lots of different news sources and and Twitter and things like that's particularly useful to get the initial wave of what the political correspondence store, and they are then plugged into MPs who what's up them from the Conservative Party, you get some pretty pretty damning what's been reported in the first five minutes, exactly like you said, rabbit in the headlights, she just kind of bolted. Yeah, if you watched it it was she literally spirit she was like she asked the fourth question which was from Robert Pester who basically said, Why are you still talking. He said, Are you going to apologize to your party. Again delivered a swerve right so the former, former Chancellor Philip Hammons already commented saying he's basically just thrown the entire reputation of Conservative Party. She just torn it up, because they're supposed to be the ones who are the fiscally prudent of the political spectrum. One thing couple other things that that was said was that she didn't actually assign any blame to quasi. And some were saying because of their relationship because of the fact that she's scared of what he then might start to bring out. Yeah, she didn't actually because if this was Boris Boris would have gone full on dagger and just just absolutely, you know, pivoted to deflect attention away from him she didn't actually do that. And she did say, one of the things she did say is the main thing was that she made clear she has not changed her fundamental position that the economic priority is growth. Yeah. So she's kind of like holding on, and there wasn't a great deal of information. I think the market been waiting for this all day. And I was looking through and I was like, okay, there's like multiple ways in which she can trim and create, you know, free up that black hole of what was 60 billion or so. But she's just come out and literally talked about the 18 billion in corporation tax cuts being reversed, which goes against her own platform. Of course, which is what Rishi was pushing. She talked about the two things that they were saying from a market perspective is the down payment. She was referring to that as I could nod to perhaps there's more reversals to come but they haven't really thought of what detail and context that that's going to happen. And then the other thing was about spending will not grow as quickly as planned, she said. Yeah. So they were the only bits that really stood out. Yeah, I mean, they, they're all that's happened in terms of that mini budget, what has changed, other than now, the Chancellor is that they've scrapped that 45% the idea of getting rid of the 45% tax band for the rich and then now, you know, doing a U-turn on corporation tax. So corporation tax will rise from 19% to 25%. Right. So that's it. But certainly that the corporation tax on that is going to hurt Liz trust because she that's like a cornerstone piece of her kind of campaign when she was campaigning to be the leader of the party. And that much she's created her own downfall here by the spectacular sort of ill thought out way they went about that budget and now she's having to just peel it all back just to stay alive. And so she's entirely kind of, you know, sacrificing her own political ethos, just to cling on to power. And, as I said, when I you said, technically, can the conservative party get around, and the answer is probably no right but so the only way to do it is the ministers just resign. It's the only way that's what happened to Boris in the end so keep an eye out for cabinet ministers resigning but obviously this trust is hoping that's aligned now drawn and let's move on. I mean she's hoping that of course that's incredibly naive. She definitely isn't aligned drawn and we're all going to move on now this is going to hang to her. And I don't know I guess she does get handed out at some point but I'm looking at markets and. Yeah I think that they say as you look at that that this is the definitive part of your fate. Yeah, what what do markets do now. Right, so that's that it's markets that have forced this whole episode because they, you know, reacted phenomenally badly to the budget right so what's happened today just today yields. So if we talk about bond yields and kind of that's where all the actions been right. It's a 30 year government bond yield. Okay that's all that stuff around the kind of pension funds and everything else where the yield spiked above 5% last week it then kind of came off and came down this morning, off the news that quasi is on a flight back from the states and is going to get sacked off that news bond yields dropped and continued to drop from last week's peak. So just today, the first half of today dropped from 4.6% all the way down to about 4.25%, which is a big move, by the way, just in a few hours. Now it's reversed the whole lot. So bond yields have reversed all of that down side from earlier on and I back up above 4.6% new highs for the session. So bond yields are saying, Liz trusts, what the hell are you doing, get out of office because you're not responsible to govern. That's what bond yields are saying, I'm looking at the currency markets and if you look at the pound against the dollar, and how that's been fluctuating and it's the same thing but in reverse, the pound was strengthening this morning. Now it's all come off. And yeah, it's reversed so the pound is now down on loads for the session. Still, I would point out, quite a bit above where we were trading last week, I mean we got down to below 104, that's the pound versus the dollar. Last week or a couple of weeks ago, sorry I should say, when the mini budget was first announced. We're still up above the 111 handle as I speak but yeah a little bit of sterling weakness but it's the bond yields that look to be more interesting for my mind. So yeah, yields moving higher, the pound moving lower, the markets are saying that trust has got to go. Do you think there's any connection to Jeremy Hunt. He was the former health and foreign secretary. Probably not everyone's cup of tea in terms of his successes over the years. Yeah. I guess she's gone for him just because he's a hugely experienced politician and indeed cabinet minister and has held. If you want to say that the, the two other big offices, which are foreign secretary and health secretary, health secretary obviously these days is one of the big ones of course but so. Yeah, I think he's probably just he's seen as that kind of super experienced person who can come in and balance off her inexperience, I can only assume that's the strategy. Because the other person I heard table late morning was Sidney Javid. Again. Yeah. But I guess he's too tight with Rishi. Well, this is it. He might have been asked actually, maybe he said no. Maybe he's binding because because who would want to, who would want to jump on the truss trolley when the wheels have already come off. I mean, looking at the charts now, I mean you mentioned the reversal. And I think that's definitely a contributing factor but stocks have also not on this news. Of course, but we'll get to it in a minute because stocks ramped yesterday after I initially tanked on CPI which will delve into, but I don't feel my spidey senses are tingling for this. You're saying markets aren't like really reacting to this is just a little bit. No, I think markets. I think we're going to have a set off for the rest this afternoon and maybe I'll have egg on my face but I don't like the setup of how the charts look across the board at the moment. You're talking about the UK markets or globally here. Global US stocks. In particular, I just don't like the vibes that I'm getting. Which is a very untechnical way of summarizing but you know when you I guess when you've watched markets for a long time you sometimes just get these feelings where particularly as well as I said we'll get to because I didn't want to talk about the Bank of England a little bit before that. But after a big ramp day like we had yesterday that never leaves me with a particularly strong feeling about the second day to follow that up. Let's get to that in a sec. Tell me about the Bank of England because I caught one of your posts on LinkedIn. And yeah, it's just an extension of while I was away and they had that whole fallout in the in the pension space and then the Bank of England I saw a comment. I think you said it that Andrew Bailey told pension funds, you got three days to get out. Yeah, so what's he talking about and why is that such a powerful statement. And by the way, the three days to get out. Well, this is the last day of the three. So it's actually markets close in one hour. It's already done. They've already had their last auction. Is that right. So that's it. Yeah, done. Right. So, yeah, 30 million. 130 million. Is that all. Yeah, the previous one prior to that was 3.1 billion. Yeah, there was one big day, but it's pretty much been the only big day. So look, what are they doing? Well, this is the Bank of England's emergency move following the budget. When bond markets just went into meltdown and UK government bond yields surged to kind of crazy levels and this had this knock on impact on pension funds and how they go about their business. There's this thing called liability driven investments. I'm not going to go into it again now we talked about it in the pod a couple of weeks ago. But ultimately it's resulting in pension funds having to essentially liquidate assets to raise cash to pay margin calls for their swap strategies that they're running right but the point is that obviously a lot of the assets that pension funds own are bonds, government bonds, UK Guilts and so they're having to sell their Guilts to raise the cash but it's the Guilts being sold drives prices down and drives yields up. So this the selling of those Guilts is that vicious cycle because it makes yield surge more which means then their margin calls are even larger. So the Bank of England stepped in and said look, we'll come in and provide some buy side liquidity in this market because if you're in a market and everyone's selling. Well the collapse it's right you need for every for every person selling, you can't sell unless there's a counterparty that's buying, but what happens if no one wants to buy. Well then this is where markets just collapsed right so the Bank of England stepped in to avoid the collapse and said right we'll buy. And normally they'd be expected to be what's called the buyer of last resort. Right where they're stepping in and going bang we are stopping this market falling. We're drawing a line we're going to be the buyers and we've got unlimited money, or well in this case they said we're going to use 65 billion. So that's the case and so everyone thought oh, thank God relief. Okay, the pension funds aren't going to collapse the Bank of England they've, they're coming to the rescue yet again. But actually that's not what's turned out to have happened because the 65 billion that they've said they were going to spend to prop up this market they haven't got anywhere near. I think they're less than 10 billion actually all in all of the 65 is less than 10 that they've spent and everyone's like what what's going on and it's not like yields of dramatically reverse and what's going on here I think is part of this. It's part of a much bigger thing, in my opinion, but that bigger thing is the era of central banks just always coming to the rescue and bailing everyone out you can make know you can make the biggest errors the biggest mistakes you can take the most you can do whatever you want because the consequences in the end are, don't worry, the central banks got your back. And so this has been the case time and time and time and time again quantitative easing programs you know, etc. And it's got to the point here in the UK now that they're bailing out governments right they're bailing out government incompetency. So now you get this slight kind of conflict because the government wants to stay in power, they want to win votes they want to be elected. So, sure, trust is kind of mini budget of tax cuts is populist. And so fine, that's a good thing for the government if their objective is to get reelected. But of course, we've just had a COVID crisis and debt levels is through the roof so in the end, you know, but but this is where government and central banks have just been propping it up propping it up propping it up. So I think this is a stand from the central bank to say, you know what, we're going to, we're not going to continue to do this indefinitely. You know, just because the government's messed up here, you know, we're not going to ride to the rescue, just because pension funds have got these complicated investment strategies. You know, that's, that's their choice. Pension funds, it's their choice that they're running these strategies, it's their risk that they're taking. They're not stupid, these pension funds, they know the risks. Fine, they weren't expecting the yield moves we've seen but it should be in their risk models. And if it's not, well, I'm sorry, whose fault is that stairs. It shouldn't be the central bank that just comes along and just bells them out all the time. So what the central bank have been doing for the last couple of weeks in this emergency window is, is saying yeah we are buying, we are buyers, we are going to prevent this market from collapsing. But we're not just going to buy at crazy high prices and let you off the hook, we'll buy but we'll buy at very low prices, you're going to have to wear a lot of pain. You're going to use us as your exit point from this strategy. And as you've seen, hardly anybody sold. So what does that tell you. That tells you that, okay, there isn't a pension fund meltdown crisis here because if there was they'd be selling to the central bank, even at their low prices they've chosen not to. And that speaks volumes, in my opinion. No, it's so interesting. And I think you're absolutely right. I agree with that conclusion. Andrew Bailey then. I know you haven't really been a big fan. I've been a big hater on the Pog actually. Yeah, I'm not. We'll see. I think he's done a good job here. He's bold in the brave. I know the, like the press, like the default with Bailey is from the press and from myself, I would definitely say is, you know, always what the hell's he doing, you know lack of credibility making mistakes, not believable. And so the press kind of, I guess jumped on it again when he said on Tuesday, pension funds were not extending this emergency window you've got three days, get out. And then the press were all over it. Oh my God, what's he doing? This is going to be a disaster. Bond market's going to collapse. The whole thing's going to implode. But I actually this is easily, easily, easily, easily the best thing he's ever done. In my opinion, this is if he pulls this off. I think it would be it will be it'll go from here from zero to hero in my mind this this could be and I don't know yet whether it'll work. But it could be one of the most dramatic kind of monastery policy stands. The U-turn in the theme of U-turns. Yeah. That's right. It's a it's a sin just going to just, I'm stopping this crazy train that we're on. I'm pulling the break. I guess the one thing from if I was thinking about it from PR perspective. I didn't see the live conference with Bailey, but given the language that was adopted, I can imagine it was delivered in a very authoritative way. And it's almost the opposite of what we've just seen from Liz trust. Yeah. There's there's a heightened degree of uncertainty. I'm sure with Bailey of am I doing the right thing when I say these words will the bomb market freak out. Obviously, there's a tangible risk of that happening. You don't know until you say it and you find out pretty quickly hence, you know, the way markets react. But I guess this is one of the things that I guess is so important about that leadership role is even if you're unsure. If you're scared, if you're anxious, it's not your job as the point man to show those types of feelings. Because that was exactly what one of the journalists was talking about from some of the initial WhatsApps that were firing in the background when she came on stage. It was like, that's just not good enough. Yeah, I've never seen someone exit stage left so fast. So that press conference she lit I mean, she was sprinting to get out of there. It was like the most uncomfortable thing I've seen for a while. And yeah, that's not what you want from your leader. It's got to be confident assertive. So maybe maybe Bailey's just got incredibly thick skin these days, taking the bashing from you every episode. And it's always right that markets are so powerful. And they basically they tell you what to do based on how they behave. Right. And that's really what's been happening for years. Central banks and governments, right. If you make a mistake, markets will tell you, and then you need to reverse and change. If central banks say, right, we're going to do we're going to we're going to start hiking rates and markets freak out and they go, oh, God, all right, fine, we won't. But I think this is Bailey trying to just reverse the tables and to say markets you're not going to dictate to me what we're going to do. We're going to dictate the terms to you. We've worked in so much as bond yields dropped from four and a half percent to below four percent after Bailey set his thing. It's only now trust has kind of flipped it is on the way back up again. But yeah, from Bailey's point of view, if you if this works and look he's got trust to deal with here so it whilst he may have played the perfect move. It's all kind of ruin it anyway. But on Bailey's point of view. Yeah, that's the best thing he's ever done in my opinion. Shout out to Andy if you're listening. He's no Mario Draghi. Let's get this very clear. In more ways than just managing markets as well. Let's talk about Thursday's move in the US equity market because let me kind of paint the scene. So all week we've been waiting for one official data point to hit very important one because it's the greatest waitest factor basically that builds the perception of what the Fed are going to do and a rate hike from the Fed come early to the top of the magnitude of 75 basis points. That was priced in before it's priced in now. It's not about the November meeting. It's about that terminal rate which we've talked about before in a previous episode which is about where the rate rates go beyond this how high do they go and where's the resting point when we get to the top. So everyone was waiting CPI, the consumer price index report from the US on Thursday and that came in at 8.2% on the headline, which was down from the previous 8.3 was point one above expectations but let's just park that because the one I'm sure that you can give a follow on is what's under the bonnet of the inflation reports when you start taking out some of the more volatile components. So typically food energy people look at the core reading, and that rose to a 40 year high 6.6% up from 6.3% and above street expectations Well, it was the kind of everything dumps. So stocks down go down bonds down the anything moving up really in that scenario is the US dollar of course. So that was the first part was quite a very forceful move lower in US equities but if you fast forward to look at the timeframe it was within about two and a half hours or so we'd taken the whole move back and then added some which you know you and I didn't have the time yesterday to sit there for the entire afternoon just watching tick for tick. But when we came out of the meeting and we look then and it's like what and then I always know there's a, you know, the one thing that always makes me smile is when I I'll check my, my slack messages, just before I go to bed. You know, because I'm a good employee, just in case there's any last minute messages I need to field before I go to sleep. And then lo and behold, here's current messaging me about the clothes on Wall Street. What happened, I missed something was going on so I know you still got your eye in. When you go home, you know talk about my layer and then what's going on when you go home, messaging me at half nine 10pm about the clothes. I know there was a couple of things to talk about. So I mean one of the most crazy days. Let me just talk about that in a second because about 10 minutes ago you said you were feeling a little bit funny about how the charts were shaping up. Since you said that in the last 10 minutes the NASDAQ sold off about 150 points. Yeah, you still got it. But let's talk about yesterday. So yeah, and if I talk about the NASDAQ, all right, when we talk about it but but you can, you can swap that in for any other stock market basically because they all did the same thing. But if I just talk about the NASDAQ, which is a bit more sensitive to inflation data than the S&P that the more broader based S&P and that's just because tech stocks are just more price sensitive to inflation. So the NASDAQ, the inflation numbers here and the NASDAQ sold off from 10,850 to 10, let's just call it 10,450 rounding things up and down here but basically a 400 point sell off bank in pretty much a straight line straight away and that initial reaction was because of the core CPI reading and the core CPI reading. As you said, 6.6% 40 year high but I think more importantly was higher than the March peak. So for core CPI we had a big surge higher in the start of the year to 6.5% in March. Then it tracked lower for the next few months, which is what led to the stock market rally in the summer. In the next couple of months it's just gone step step right back up and above the spring high. And so the first reaction in markets is oh my God, this is a disaster, this inflation crisis I mean it's definitely not over. And the Fed are going to have to carry on hiking rates at 75 basis points per meeting till God knows where right and the terminal rate that you were talking about is now going to be higher and is our doom and gloom and stock markets collapse. Then the devil's in the detail and it is difficult with inflation because there's so many elements to it and there's so many different components and there's headline inflation and there's core and then there's goods and there's services and so it is difficult to kind of delve into the data but what happened in markets after that 400 point sell off and the NASDAQ sell off post. Then it started to push back higher and bounce and not only did it rebound the whole lot. So a 400 point sell off 400 point rally. It went into the close where I was kind of messaging you it then added another like 200 points on top of that so basically 400 point sell off 600 point rally. Finishing on the highs for the session, no other news, because I was thinking, hey, maybe I missed some news later on, nothing through the inflation, maybe there was something else that happened that led to that bounce but there wasn't anything so when I delved into the inflation situation became a little bit more clear, I think. So, if you look at the, if we just take core inflation that's taking out food and energy. Okay, so what you've got left and in core inflation, you can kind of split it into goods or services. Okay. Two things on the goods side. And I think this is probably the most powerful catalyst for that rebound yesterday. If you look at the goods side so stuff like what we saw was shipping costs have now started to fall commodity prices are falling. We've had them what we call a real build up in inventories. Okay, this is where companies are stock piling product. That's where they're manufacturing product and then maybe they're sticking it in the warehouse that's ready for goods to be sold and shipped right and the, or the inventory levels of components or whatever right they've they've been building and building to super high levels which is normally a sign that sales are starting to weaken. Right. And so it's perhaps a lead indicator that companies are going to start to buy less. So that demand side of the inflation situation. There's signals that it's going to weaken. And what we saw with the goods inflation element of the core inflation reading. We now have goods disinflation. Net over all goods in the basket prices now dropped. And that's the first time that's happened since 2020. So goods inflation is now negative. Right, so that's a clear sign that maybe this inflation crisis has peaked or is peaking. Okay, so then we look at the, but but hang on then if goods prices went down why was the inflation so high and why was it higher than expected so it's all about the services side. Okay, services inflation definitely did not go down now the biggest component of the services side of inflation is shelter. So everything to do with your house and you living in a house right and that came in super hot. And that's been the that's been one of the elements of the inflation basket that's been really driving this inflation spike. Right, so the, the shelter portion of the inflation basket was up point seven percent, both in August and in September actually. Now that shelter portion that makes up half of the core services. Okay, so that's a really important one and that's the one that's pushing higher come back to that in a sec medical care, which makes up 12% of the core services. That went up big time, weirdly, because of mostly because of surging costs of eye appointments. That it was going on with eye appointments but the price has jumped but the point is because there's no obvious reason it's like well that's probably not going to last and that's probably just a temporary thing right so looking ahead now. What's inflation going to be next month what it will be the end of the year and it's like well okay what's driving it up now and are those factors sustainable. So medical care probably not going to continue to be a factor that's pushing inflation higher transportation services that's 10% of the core services side of the basket that shot up 1.9%. It's not bigger jump than we saw in August where it was only 0.5% and again it's a bit tricky as to as to why kind of judge why that's happened and there's no evidence to suggest it will continue to happen right. But if you've got goods prices now declining, if you've got medical care and transportation services, spiking but for no good reason so probably won't again going forwards then really all it comes down to is shelter. Basically shelters the last portion of this basket that's driving prices higher I think that's why markets rebounded yesterday, because a lot of the elements in the basket are really flashing that in the future. So inflation is going to start to come back down, but it does leave shelter, and will that continue to rise now last thing last point about shelter shelter CPI is calculated using rental data. So what does it cost to rent. Okay. Now, in the CPI basket that shelter component is looking at existing rents rental mounts and then new rental contracts. Okay. Now if you took out the existing there are other readings that aren't used in the CPI inflation basket but used you can find elsewhere there's other kind of measures that get rid of existing it's just what are the new rental contracts. The price is going to be priced, because that's obviously a much better lead indicator, right. If you signed up to a two year rent agreement. Well then you can't change the price right so the price isn't going to go anywhere, but it's the new deals that getting signed now the prices are starting to come down. The lead indicator by looking at new rental costs is showing that and the lags about nine months by the way, the lag between CPI shelter measures and actual rental costs in new deals being done it's about nine months so basically the long and the short time difference. It looks like the shelter market is turning as well now if you just look at new rent deals, and therefore, we're kind of nine months away from the whole shelter CPI component, starting to come all the way back So we still got nine months but the point in the way markets operate is we don't wait for nine months to see if it actually happens we kind of looking to the finer detail and the more lead indicators to see if it's beginning to happen. And if we're happy it's beginning to happen right. Let's start pricing it in. So this is why markets rebounded yesterday. Yeah, and I was looking at other rationale that was trying to be pinned to the move. I think fundamentally definitely I think now, perhaps there's a couple of other elements that exist in an intraday environment that can exacerbate these types of old price movements and support those four other things that were tabled. So feel free to add any source to any of these as I described them chart support. Option hedges. So unwinding short positions. Right. So those perhaps piled in on the back of the inflation figure on first instance. Yeah, earning season. What about season. Well, I think I saw a black rock finish up like six and a half percent or something yesterday, but I think that's hide up in some of the move but I don't, we haven't even begun earning season. So I think that's a bit much. And then raw based strategies, just exacerbating. So the only thing I can think of by that reference is, perhaps there's short term intraday participants running automated systems on momentum based trading. So momentum was down to start with. When terms in terms of the, the, the speed of the recovery and some when it added and then, you know, so I don't know, I guess the main things to the people listening I guess there's a couple of different types. Some will be traders. And I think actually, there's a couple of things I think one thing is is that when you get a situation if you're looking at intraday markets like yesterday. I can say as often as tempting as it can be to jump in and just ride the reversal. So the highly risky strategy or broadly speaking, because what you described about the CPI report all makes complete crystal clear sense, the ability for you to really make that assessment in real time. Yeah, is impossible. Certainly in very, very tight timeframes. Yeah. And your initial rationale is based on then buying into a market that fundamentally doesn't make sense to the initial interpretation, which is never a good thing, never a good place to be more often or not. Which is the second point, which is, well, if you are trading intraday, then probably the best course of action is if you see the types of volatility, I did have a stat. I think I saw it somewhere. Someone tweeted it where it's like the down up move has led to extreme level of volatility, probably your best served not trading. Because even though you mentioned a 600 point move in a market which sounds very appetizing, you could be 600 points on the wrong side of that move. And you kind of want to pick, you know, you want to pick opportunities where the probabilities hopefully are leaning in your favor. You know, you're not rolling the dice here trying to just chase markets. So that's for the intraday. I think beyond that, you know, for anyone who's more interested in like the mechanics from a top level picture, I think exactly as you described makes make sense, both from a longer term investment point of view for a fund manager point of view and for a student to understand about these things. This is a good explanation because now when you look at the market, actually I'm looking at the NASDAQ now. And it's trading scratch. Yeah, where we were when the CPI bomb dropped yesterday. I just noticed that as well. So basically, if you had a you know, if you had a big night out and then had a big sleep in the hangover and missed work yesterday, you'd be absolutely exactly where you were before any of this madness happened. So one of my favorite things is that like when you get a market episode like yesterday, and it doesn't happen often. One of my favorite things is then to is to read the mainstream financial press, and just for entertainment comedy value. Just read some of the attempts that the journals are making at trying to explain what happened when it's super hard to explain and blatantly I think unless you've been a trader and you've been right in amongst it and for years. It's almost yeah it's just seems like impossible to explain but the journals job that's what they've got to do and I love some of the, some of the things they come out with to try and explain it I find hilarious. But, but yeah, definitely. I don't know, obviously we're selling off now. I guess the bigger question is a question for you. This, because one angle from yesterday was well if the market can't sell off on the back of more bad inflation data will maybe, maybe that's it, maybe we're at a bottom that just aren't any sellers left anybody did want to sell they've already sold. Even more bad inflation data in the market doesn't go down. So is that a signal well okay maybe, maybe this is a bottom. What do you think to that. Yeah, I mean, I've always been a perma perma ball. You know, after the 30 was it 37 38,000 got smashed in the S&P. I'm a little bit less inclined to be talking out but I guess put it this way a lot of the bank stuff I've been reading I was posting something from Bank of America on the Amplify me LinkedIn page so shameless plug, you should follow that account because we put stuff out on the team about, you know, bank calls things like that really useful when you're interviewing at these places, but Bank of America were basically saying along the lines of, you know, there's more pain to come and I think a lot of them like Morgan Stanley I think it's the same they're talking about corporate valuations are still too rich and need to come down. And I guess that we were just about to begin earning season. Yeah, we got an important couple of weeks ahead. But I think we could probably sell off in two. Yeah, he's then got the midterms coming in what first week of November. So I think it's from a timing wise and just given the usual market reactions that we get post midterms as well. Now with this UK debacle coming. I think we're over the worst famous last words. I think there's a lot of bad stuff that's happened. Yeah. And that's had its impact now. Yeah. So I think we are more of the mind of we sell off short term next three weeks month. I still think that then there's a little bit of time where the dust will settle on this. I mean I just have saw a comment here from one of the fed officials talking about four and a half to 5% likely the top of the fed funds right cycle which I guess is in keeping with their guidance but I think we hit first week second week in November you want to call them to sell off till then. Okay, then then we hit that that's been the bottom. You think the midterms will provide the bottom. I'm going to have to get out that GS bingo card that you had the other day and just see where we are on the on the scorecard. I think as well those corporate valuations got time to come down be a bit more depressed and they're the more depressed they become with this, you know, this greatest sell off that still might emerge. I think then you'll start to see. I do, I do agree with like with the earnings season that's about start I mean that's definitely going to be pretty significant, I think. And it just go and it's not just their earnings for quarter three, which is probably going to come in week but it's really about their what are these companies guiding for 2023. You know, what's their guidance for 23 and how, how bearish are they, and how worried are they, and especially in the US with the dollar being so uber strong. So for these massive giant organizations that generate a lot of international revenues that's, that's really hurting. So yeah, it's interesting to see what they say about that 2023 guidance and I think that may be the kind of most powerful force and if it's if it's doom and gloom then yeah I think you're right we may get another leg down over the next three weeks but on that earnings front so it's some of the banks reporting today right which is really just kicking off the season and then what you're reporting next week. Yeah, without going into all of the numbers what I can say is that I've posted actually on my LinkedIn my personal one so feel free to connect but I've on there I've put out the press releases as of every large financial institution reported in the last 48 hours JP Morgan Morgan Stanley City Wells Fargo and BlackRock was on Thursday. So the reason why this is super important if you're a student listening and you're in the midst of the application season which I know is very much well underway right now, either applying running cover letters or at this point of the year you're currently in interview or looming assessment centers. I think we'll mention the other day there's still students out there will won't be able to tell an employer the difference between the global markets division and the IBD division. Yeah, which are like night and day, but beyond that, what I always try to say to students is that if you read one of these investor relation documents around corporate earnings from a JP Morgan, for example or Morgan Stanley, essentially it gives you not just the top level performance of that business. It allows you to understand in a more granular fashion, how each division is performing, of which are these specific divisions that you are applying to. It also allows you to do a competitive kind of landscape assessment of, okay, so how big is MS in this space compared to GS, or what actually, you know, why isn't it a classic investment bank so different to a city or a Wells Fargo for example, what's the commercial banking aspect of them how big it is in context and, you know, I always try to say to students is that, you know, if you were an employer, and you're employing someone to work in your company, let's say you owned your own small company. Right. And you asked that famous question. What do you know about my company. You should be able to tell me, particularly I'm giving you public documentation of facts and figures of what exactly we do, what services we provide, what's our best product, how we positioned in the market. If you are listening to this podcast and you can't answer those questions about the bank you're applying to, you're not probably not going to get that job. So, look, I've shared it all there. It's in one post. I'm going to circulate it in the the market maker newsletter as well. But look, I can only take a horse to water. Yeah, look, this is all to help wise words. You know, I think it doesn't take more than I would say 15 minutes to just have a little look over the document. Because generally people are concentrated on specific division, and you're going to be like much more educated, and you'll feel much more confident, and you will have that, that special differentiator from the other candidates then so yeah, check I'll put I'll drop the link in the show notes just to make life easier for everyone. Yeah, learning season will pick up a bit of pace next week. Usually, it's still a bit slow, you'll get the other financial names amongst some other firms but then it's the week after it's then the busiest week of all of the season. And then probably the week after that is when we'll start so we're probably talking like, I guess late October, the apples, Amazons, alphabets, Metas of the world. We'll probably come in about two weeks or so I'd say. Yeah. Yeah, we'll cover that when the time comes the world might be a different place by then. Boris Johnson will be Prime Minister. All right, look, we'll leave it there for this week. And we'll be back as ever next week to talk over the main events of the week. So yeah, thanks for listening. Thanks Pierce and have a good weekend. Thank you.