 Felly, mae'r trafodaeth o'r Ysgrifennid Ysgrifennid yw hwnnw i'r ysgrifennid yw 23 November, pan drwy'r Passyf Lleithwyr. Trafodaeth yn cael ei wneud i gweithio'r risg o'r cyflym yn ymgyrchau yng nghymru gyda'r prospes iawn o'r ysgrifennid. Mae'r tych yn fy mhwyaf i ni'n gwybod yw ysgrifennid yw'r ysgrifennid yn gwybod ysgrifennid, ac mae'n gwybod eich sylwgr yn ymgyrch yn ystod yn sylwgr yn amser, As we head into Thursday's Thanksgiving holiday in the US, with equity and bond markets closed. Also at the end of the week, Black Friday sales figures will be closely watched to track any hint of resilience in consumer spending despite the pandemic. Hardly any catalysts will be offered from the US data calendar, with PMIs on Monday and a bunch of releases on Wednesday, durable goods, second reading of third quarter GDP, PCE and personal spending. All and likely to have major implications for the markets. The minutes of the quite uneventful 5 November FFMC meeting will also be released on Wednesday, with any possible surprise coming from hints at a QE expansion in December. Also expect more on the minutian pal dispute on preserving the emergency lending programme, although this is not proven to have a large impact on markets so far. So, from a technical perspective, the dollar index remains in a consolidation phase in what we anticipate here is a wave 4 consolidation pattern. The shrink in volatility we've seen will further support this. So, as we head into this week, as the 92 level supports, we could see a pop back up to retest the 9350 monthly pivot from below. From here I would look for fresh supply to come into the markets, ultimately looking to target the wave 5 ideal level of 90. From here I think then we could see a more meaningful correction in terms of the dollar index. Only a move back through 9475 at this stage will invalidate the wave 4 thesis and put on the table a more protracted and extended corrective phase which could see prices trade back up to 95 level before trading lower. Any early loss this week of 92 would suggest that the wave 5 decline is underway and we should trade down through to this 90 objective. The Eurozone, the re-emergence of frictions around the rule of law conditionality on the EU budget and recovery funds have held the euro back somewhat. Recent comments suggest Hungary and Poland may be opening up to a compromise. This should remain an important background story for the euro and other European currencies next week. Although it appears that traders are only marginally pricing in the risk of further frictions and upside potential if an agreement is reached looks fairly limited. Wider implications for the euro should come from the EU-UK trade negotiations. I'm not really inclined to think a deal will be agreed next week, although there have been news reports that this is a possibility. The news flow is set to intensify and would likely spill over into the euro if there is a deal agreement. Data-wise, Monday's PMI will be in focus while we saw only a small drop in the last month for most indicators. Most market economists expect a significant slump, probably below 40 in the composite gauge. Driven by a drop in services due to fresh containment measures. Manufacturing should also inch lower, but should remain above the 50 mark and possibly sweeten the pill for the markets. Grim PMIs could cause the euro to start the week on the back foot, although the impact should be short lived, considering traders have largely factored in the euro zone growth, derating and improving vaccine prospects are keeping investors upbeat on a sustained recovery. Finally, keep an eye on ECB President Lagarde and Chief Economist Lane, whose speeches will get a closer look towards the 10th of December meeting when the bank is set to unveil expansion of QE. From a technical perspective, the euro dollar remains in a fourth wave consolidation pattern. Whilst we hold the 19-20 level of resistance, we could see a move back down to retest the 17 handle of support if we can see bullish reversal patterns develop here, then we would be looking to set long positions, targeting the ideal wave 5 objective of a 121.19. However, if we don't hold the 117 support, then look for a deeper decline to test the equality objective at 115.30 before looking for that wave 5 advance. In the UK, a number of significant events loom next week. Her markets will keep a close eye obviously on the EU trade negotiations, with time running short before the end of the transition period on 31 December. There is even a suggestion that allowances could be made for the ratification process which will take longer on the EU side than the UK side to continue into the new year if a deal is agreed before year ends. There is potential for sterling volatility which could be exacerbated by low volumes as the US is obviously out on Thursday for Thanksgiving. The Chancellor will provide a one-year spending review together with updated economic forecasts from the Office for the Budget responsibility on Wednesday. The fact that the spending group will cover 2021 and 2022 rather than the usual three or four years is testament to the high levels of uncertainty about the economic outlook related to the impact of COVID-19 and also the new trading relationship in whatever guise that is. It suggests that the Chancellor's primary focus for now will remain on supporting the economy through the pandemic, although there are multi-year priority commitments in areas such as health education and infrastructure. From a technical perspective, sterling continues to trade in and around the 133 handle. As 133.50 continues to act as resistance, we could see a pull back to test 130 as support for getting the next leg higher to ultimately retest prior cycle highs at 134.87 and we have that 135.20 resistance cluster just above there. Very quiet week next week, data wise in Japan and even more quiet end of the week obviously with the global markets due to the long Thanksgiving weekend. There is some scope for a marginally flatter US yield curve next week which may put a flaw on the inversely correlated yen. Otherwise any upside for the Japanese yen will likely rely on potential negative developments in Europe with respect to the EU-UK Brexit deal or a setback in the EU recovery fund negotiations. Further rising infections worldwide may still offer some support for the Japanese yen in the crosses but with the prospect of a vaccine accelerating, risk havens look unlikely to enjoy a fully fledged rally at this stage. So from a technical perspective with respect to the dolly hen, as this 103.20 axis support I've been looking for a retested and sending trend line up to 15.30 before potentially seeing some renewed weakness. Any move back through 105.65 would suggest that we have seen an interim low in place and we could extend higher to retest 107. Finally, the Aussie was up on the week but underperformed really its closest peer, the Kiwi which stage an impressive rally. A standard Labour data came in stronger than expected on Thursday and gave reasons to believe that the RBA easing may have peaked. The RBA minutes from November suggested the bank considered holding off on the rate cut but also signalled an ongoing discussion around extending the EU control to the five year. Let's see if we get some clarity about possible future options from the speech by Deputy Governor De Bell which is on Tuesday. For now what is clear is that the RBA in terms of Governor Lowe's perspective is one, looking at negative rates are a remote option and two, that Aussie strength is not really a concern at current levels. All this suggests the downside risk for the Aussie stemming from the RBA policy stance are relatively contained. Looking at other factors, any developments in the highly tense diplomatic and trade relationships with China remain central for the Aussie with the Aussie data calendar very light for the week ahead. From a technical perspective, as we continue to trade above the 72 level I'm now looking for a retest of prior cycle highs and I'm just taking out the stocks above there so we could probably look for a test of 74, 40, 74, 50. From there I think we'll see some profit taking and get a retest of the 71 level as support. That concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing the 23rd of November as always traders. I would like to join me on Thursday at 1pm UK time for some live market analysis where I'll be updating all of these charts and the technical patterns as they are playing out. Thanks very much for your time and have a prosperous week.