 China has had its eyes set on Taiwan since the 17th century, and recently its grabby power-hungry hands have been reaching towards this semiconductor-rich and technologically important little island more aggressively than usual. If only it wasn't for that pesky Taiwan Relations Act which requires the US to provide Taiwan with protection against anything that could jeopardize the security or the social or economic system of the people on Taiwan. Xi Jinping would probably already be all over Taiwan and its processing chips. Even so, China is not about to let go of the idea of fully taking over one of the world's most important economic focal points any time soon. Exactly how worried should Taiwan be about China's potential invasion? When Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022, it set off the largest conflict in Europe since World War II. Understandably, the surprise invasion sent shockwaves around the world, causing many countries to re-evaluate their security. Nowhere was this more true than the island nation of Taiwan, another state with a large, threatening neighbor laying historical claim to its territory. Russia's invasion sparked fears of similar actions against Taiwan by China, a scenario which could destabilize not only East Asia, but potentially the entire world. How did Taiwan come to be such an important global economic center? One word, civil war. Here's what we mean. As with Russia and Ukraine, the shared history of Taiwan and China goes back hundreds of years. Throughout the 16th century, the Chinese gradually gained influence and control over the island, then known as Formosa through intermarriage and trade. By the late 17th century, the Qing dynasty officially incorporated Taiwan into its empire, by which point the island was mostly ethnically hand-Chinese. In 1895, following its victory in the first Sino-Japanese War, Japan took control of Taiwan from China. The Japanese implemented economic and social reforms on the island, which led to limited modernization and industrialization. However, the occupation also resulted in widespread discrimination against Taiwanese people, who were viewed as inferior to the Japanese. With its loss at the end of World War II, Japan was forced to relinquish control of Taiwan, and the island was returned to Chinese rule. However, almost immediately, Taiwan became embroiled in the Chinese Civil War, which was raging at the time between the Nationalists, led by Chiang Kai-shek, and the Communists, led by Mao Zedong. In mainland China, the Communists were victorious, and in 1949 established the People's Republic of China, or PRC. The defeated Nationalists were forced to flee to Taiwan, where they established the Republic of China, or ROC. With both governments still claiming to be the legitimate government of China, no peace agreement was ever signed, and the Civil War technically continues to this day. Under the Nationalist government, Taiwan experienced significant economic growth and modernization. However, it was also a period of severe authoritarian rule, with limited political freedom and human rights abuses. In the 1980s, there was a growing movement for democracy and Taiwanese identity, which led to protests, and eventually a transition to democratic rule of the island in the 1990s. Today, Taiwan remains a prosperous democracy, with a vibrant civil society, legal protections, and a strong sense of Taiwanese identity. On the mainland, the PRC also went through some spectacular transformations. Most of Mao's rule was extremely turbulent, with industrialization, but also the mass famine of the Great Leap Forward and political chaos and repression of the Cultural Revolution. Following Mao's death, the PRC's new leader, Den Xiaoping, began a series of economic reforms in 1978. Fueled by the market-based policies, massive investment in infrastructure, and cheap labor, these reforms would give China decades' GDP growth exceeding 10% per year, lifting hundreds of millions from poverty and leaving the country as the world's second largest economy today. Yet throughout this period of transformation, the issue of Taiwan never went away, with both sides continuing to claim legitimate rulership of China. Under the PRC's One China Principle, no country with whom it held diplomatic relations could recognize the ROC. For much of the Cold War, most governments continued to recognize the ROC, keeping the Chinese Communist Party relatively isolated. This changed by 1979, when the US switched its official recognition to the PRC, naming it as the sole legal government of China. But while it officially recognized Taiwan as part of China, the US also continued unofficial relations with Taiwan. Among other things, this has entailed providing the island with billions in advanced military assistance to defend itself from a potential invasion and regularly sending the navy through the Taiwan Strait. Today, Taiwan's status remains a highly contentious issue in China's relations with the US and others. China continues to view Taiwan as a renegade province that must be reunited with the mainland, while Taiwan sees itself as a separate and sovereign entity. Xi Jinping, the current leader of China, has reinforced this position, calling the reunification of Taiwan a historic mission and unshakable commitment for his government. Now, where have we heard that line before? Ah yes, Putin has been feeding it to the people of Russia as part of his war propaganda since February 2022. With the invasion of Ukraine and deteriorating relations between the US and China, many have begun to speculate about Taiwan. Will the island meet a similar fate? If so, would China fare better than Russia has? And if the US chooses to protect Taiwan, could such an invasion spiral into open conflict between superpowers? These questions are made more important by both Taiwan's role as the world's largest semiconductor manufacturer, a critical link in the modern global economy, and by America's purposefully ambiguous policy towards the issue. Their answers are also complex, since any invasion of Taiwan would look very different from Ukraine and could be far more costly for both sides, reflecting the island's unique circumstances and singular importance to our modern world. In terms of sheer numbers, it is clear that China would have the advantage against Taiwan in almost every way. China has the world's largest population at 1.4 billion, compared to only 23.5 million in Taiwan, and China is an economic superpower, worth $18.3 trillion GDP to Taiwan's 1.27 trillion. Similarly, China's armed forces, the People's Liberation Army, or PLA, has over 2 million active forces to Taiwan's 169,000, as well as vastly more tanks, aircrafts, submarines, naval ships, and artillery. Its enormous military budget of $225 billion also dwarfs Taiwan's, leaving little doubt which is the stronger power in absolute terms. Yet, as the war on Ukraine has shown, numbers alone don't count for everything. And despite the odds against it, Taiwan's military and economy is still in a far better position than Ukraine's was prior to the Russian invasion. In 2021, the Taiwanese defense budget was over $15 billion, nearly three times that of Ukraine for the same year. While its overall GDP was nearly five times larger, but that's not all. Taiwan also has a modern military with advanced technology and well-trained soldiers. The US has been supplying the island with powerful weapons for decades, including F-16 fighter jets, upgraded Patriot missile batteries, Abrams tanks, and other advanced systems that Ukraine doesn't have or is only beginning to receive. While these would not close the military gap with China, it would put Taiwan in a better position than Ukraine was at the start of its invasion. Then there is the problem of the potential invasion itself. Unlike Ukraine and Russia, Taiwan does not share a land border with China, but is separated by the Taiwan Strait, a body of water still over 80 miles at its narrowest point. That means any invasion would have to be an amphibious assault. The lowest estimates of the Chinese forces necessary for a successful campaign are over 300,000, and to achieve the three-to-one superiority in numbers that most commanders look for in offensive operations, the PLA would need an invasion force of 1.3 to 2.5 million. In comparison, D-Day, the largest amphibious invasion in history up to this point, had only 156,000 total troops. Additionally, despite having better capabilities than Russia, the PLA has not seen combat since 1979, and few of its officers have real battle experience. Military experts still generally agree that China could take Taipei through massive force and numbers, but how easily, and whether it could hold the territory for long, are less clear. Additionally, the geography of Taiwan would work to its advantage in an invasion scenario. The country is actually made up of over 100 islands, many of them too small to see on a map. Most of the outer islands are packed with missiles, rocket systems, and artillery, while an extensive bunker system has been tunneled into the outer granite hills. The main island is rugged, with dense forests, and 258 mountains over 10,000 feet in elevation, and as China analyst Ian Easton has noted, unlike Normandy, the coastal terrain here is a defender's dream come true. Taiwan has only 14 small invasion beaches, and they are bordered by cliffs and urban jungles. Miners made of steel-reinforced concrete blanket the surrounding valleys. Taiwan gets hit by typhoons and earthquakes all the time, so each building and bridge is designed to withstand severe buffeting. This defensibility would also make it easier for an insurgency to form if China did take control of the island. Taiwan has a large and well-trained reserve force that could engage in guerrilla warfare and hide in tunnels and forests. And while gun ownership on the island is strictly regulated, civilian arms training has increased in recent years. The owner of one shooting range in Taipei told Reuters that attendees had tripled or quadrupled since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. As one tattoo artist and reservist put it, most people don't want to go to war. I also don't want to go to war, but in the unfortunate event of this really happening, I will be mentally prepared. The terrain in Taiwan, with its mountains and forests, would also make it difficult for the PLA to locate and neutralize any resistance. This would make an occupation of the island difficult and costly, potentially leading to a protracted conflict which could wear down Chinese morale. But the obstacles don't end there. Another difficulty China would face in an invasion is international support for Taiwan. While Taiwan only has official relations with 13 other countries due to the PRC's international pressure, it maintains strong unofficial relations with the US, Japan, and other powerful states. The question of whether the US would aid Taiwan against an invasion has long been a critical question. Since it began relations with the PRC, the United States has maintained a position of strategic ambiguity, purposefully not making clear whether it would respond to an attack on Taiwan. However, with the recent heightened tensions, this policy has come into question. When asked in late 2022 whether he would send US forces to defend the island, President Joe Biden replied, yes, if in fact there was an unprecedented attack. Although White House spokesperson later claimed the US policy had not changed, Biden's comments made it clear how vital Taiwan remains to US economic and military interests. If China launched a full-scale invasion, there is little doubt that the US would respond in some fashion, possibly through increased military aid to rebels, harsh economic sanctions on Chinese markets, or even the active deployment of advisors and troops to assist Taiwanese forces. US involvement would present a serious obstacle to China occupying or annexing the island for any length of time, especially since the PLA's capabilities and resources are still far less substantial than the US military. And with Taiwaning chaos, both China and the US would have difficulty supplying their military-industrial complexes. This points to another major difficulty China would face in invading Taiwan, the profound disruption it would cause to the world economy, while the invasion of Ukraine created chaos in energy markets and supply chains around the world, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would cause far greater damage, pointing to just how important the island is to the modern world. This is primarily due to semiconductors, which are necessary for nearly all modern electronics, from smartphones to GPS to fighter jets and missile systems. As the electronic industry in the US picked up in the 1960s and 70s, semiconductors became increasingly sophisticated, allowing for massive advances in computing power. But beginning in the 1980s, companies began to outsource the highly technical and expensive process of fabricating semiconductors to East Asian countries with cheaper labor. Over the next several decades, Taiwan's semiconductor manufacturing company, or TSMC, would become the most successful example of this, making itself into the largest and most advanced semiconductor manufacturer in the world. Taiwan's market dominance is such that today more than 90% of global semiconductor manufacturing takes place on the island, making TSMC the 10th largest corporation in the world. And while the US is now taking strides to increase its domestic semiconductor manufacturing, Taiwan remains the linchpin to the industry, and thus to the modern digital economy. Here's the bad news, a Chinese invasion would catastrophically disrupt global supply chains and could lead to significant economic consequences, including shortages and recession. An active conflict on Taiwan would almost certainly slow down or halt fabrication of semiconductors and potentially damage or destroy the fabrication facilities. Furthermore, any military conflict would lead to a sharp decline in consumer confidence and businesses would hesitate to invest in the region. This would ultimately harm China's economic output for years to come, as it is heavily dependent on exports, as well as on the uninterrupted production of semiconductors, which make up more than 50% of Taiwan's exports to the PRC. But while the economic consequences would certainly damage the Chinese economy, that is no guarantee an invasion will not happen. Taiwan's geopolitical value is great enough that Beijing may risk the consequences just to control Taiwan's fabrication facilities, which would give both China complete control over the industry and completely seal off America's supply of the most advanced semiconductors. This could theoretically allow China to gain the upper hand in everything from commercial electronics to artificial intelligence and weapons production. For all these reasons and more, it is clear that any conflict between China and Taiwan would be complex and have far-reaching consequences. Whoever controls the supply chain for semiconductors will most likely become the dominant power of the 21st century. While such a conflict still seems unlikely today, geopolitical pressures could certainly create the conditions for a Chinese invasion. However, even if that takes place, there is reason to believe that such an invasion would face tremendous difficulties and require nearly all of China's military capabilities. But what do you think? How likely is a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, and how would China fare in such a scenario? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below, and don't forget to subscribe for more content from military experts.