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Published on Jan 29, 2012
Bayes' theorem is astonishing. You should not live your entire life without understanding Bayes' theorem. The understanding of Bayes' theorem has turned into a revolution among knowledgeable people, sometimes called Bayesians. And I have made this easy for everyone to understand.
Bayes' theorem starts with a simple statistical relationship, re-discovered many times throughout human history. But, the new Bayesian revolution isn't about the math. In the last few years mankind has gained an understanding of what Bayes' theorem means. And it's stunning.
Bayes shows the relationship between evidence in the world and our beliefs with mathematical precision. In other words, Bayes defines our relationship with reality. It's the backbone of clear thinking. It's used in science law and journalism, when everything's going the way it should. Bayes draws the line between rational and irrational. For many reasons, we can never know anything for sure. Once we accept that, Bayes is our best route to knowledge.