 Well, a $16 stock is going to go to 24 the same day. It just doesn't make sense. So this is kind of what I mean by you have to tear down your expectations for 2021 and start using your experience. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessaTrader.com. Weekend update show. Hope everybody is doing great. First and foremost, again, belated Merry Christmas to all you guys. Happy Hanukkah to all you guys. And for all you guys who are just watching this broadcast, I want to wish everybody a brand new happy new year. We are literally about a week away for 2020 being put to bed. If you guys notice, for the last three days or so, I've taken the weekend, well, I've taken the nightly video off. It's just been very repetitive what the market's been doing for the last week or so. So I felt, especially in this environment that 2020 has been so mentally exhausting for a lot of us who have not been on vacation, have not taken any personal time, it really weighs on you. So I took three, four days just to kind of relax at nighttime. And again, it's just pretty much the same thing. If you think about what the market's been doing, you can literally apply the nightly video to the previous day. Again, technology for the most part has been kind of doing nothing. The Amazon's the world, and I want to kind of touch on them in a second. The SPAC names have been going absolutely nuts. The EV names, it's been basically the same thing. So I figured myself, well, I'll only take the week off. It's the same market every single day. Beta's not doing anything, EV's going nuts, SPAC is going nuts. It's the same thing, so just basically take tonight's video and put it into tomorrow. And that's exactly what I expect to see probably towards the end of the week. I think more important why I kind of wanted to do this weekend update show, I'm starting to see, well, I've been seeing it for a while, but I'm starting to see a lot of newer traders. When I say new traders, somebody's been trading for less than three years, they're really pretty much a new trader. You really haven't seen anything that is going to stick into your mental database to kind of make you more woke, I guess, for your future. And I kind of want to record this video pretty quickly just to share my thoughts. 20 years ago was the greatest stock market ever. It was known as the dot-com craze. And although the dot-com craze only lasted for about 15 to 18 months, you can make a very strong argument. Back then, we were all very, very young. I was in my mid-20s, and we thought this was never going to end, never. This was the greatest thing ever. I can't believe everybody's not trading stocks for a living. And again, if you're watching this broadcast, nobody knew what we were doing. None of us did. We were products of the internet craze. We got very, very lucky because all we were doing is basically taking the highest, biggest movers, percentage movers of the day, and just taking all of them overnight. Literally, if a stock was up 70%, we would take it overnight. The next day, it would gap up about 25%. So none of us knew what we were doing. And unfortunately, we believed we did. We believed we were smart. We believed this was the easiest thing going. And unfortunately, what happened between 2001 to 2003 were a couple of things, the dot-com bubble burst. 9-11 came and went. And for the next two years, again, if you've been watching this broadcast for the first time, I didn't make a single penny from 2001 to 2003. I got my career back going on the road close to, like kind of mid-2003, started 2004. So I really had my first inclination of what the hell the market was all about five years after I started trading. And again, I'm blessed right now to say this is my 21st year. But the moral of the story is, I never thought we were ever gonna see a market that even came close to the dot-com days, because again, the internet was fresh. The internet was new. It was just generational. And fast forward 20 years later, and we had the second storm of the internet. And it took me a while to really come about and really say, you know what? This is as close as possible. This is the closest possible. And unfortunately, if you're a new trader and you started in the last two years, this is something that mirrors exactly what my friends and I thought was never going to end 20 years ago. And unfortunately it ended, and it ended very, very rapidly. And if you fast forward to what happened in 2020, considering the global pandemic and so many people losing their livelihoods and their homes, have a really, really tough financial and mental time in 2020, the stock market did completely the opposite of what reality should have been. And I think a lot of people really equate what happened in the stock market as a normalcy. And it's like going to a casino for the first few times and you hit the slot machine and you hit for $150,000. And you think right now you're a professional gambler. And the reality is you are a professional gambler. That's what a casino is. And unfortunately, because this market is incredibly dot com-esque, I think a lot of people are really believing or at least trying to convince themselves that they know what they're doing. They're smarter than the quote, unquote, the house and this will last forever. And unfortunately, it's not the fact, it won't. And this is just kind of the reality. My mentor, and I was very, very fortunate again to be in the right place at the right time in Carl and Equities in 1999. I met this gentleman named Myer Hoffman, which if you watch this video, I've quoted him so many, many times. He was such a big influence in just the psychology part of trading, not really the technical part. He was a little bit different of a trader than I am. But he was one of the greatest traders ever. And we were fortunate enough to get a 20 minute interview with him years ago. And I know a lot of you guys have seen that, but there's a really important part of that video which kind of complements to what I'm talking about now. And he said in the video, because the market was so aggressive, and I'm sure Kyler will put a link to that interview. It's only 20 minutes. It's me, Myer, and Peter from the Luchi Group that did the interview. But it's so important to what Myer said regarding the dot com days. And he basically said, because the market was so incredibly strong, you didn't need to know what you were doing, okay? And I'm just kind of paraphrasing, but the market made you right. You didn't need to be in the perfect price. You didn't need to have a very specific skill set to what the market was doing. The market made you right. Even if you were wrong at your entry, the market was so strong that eventually, in the next couple of days or so, you were gonna be made whole. And we've seen that over and over again in the dot com era. And we saw that so many times throughout 2021. Now again, excuse me, it's 2020. Now, if you think about the names that were going up during the dot com era, it was the invention, the first phase of the internet. This is what we basically take for granted every single day, right? You go on your laptop, you go on your phone, WWW, right, the World Wide Web. 20 years ago, 19 years ago, 21 years ago, this was a new thing, okay? This is something that most people didn't know what was going on. And all those companies, eventually, majority of those companies, they went away. And this was the Wild West. This was the gold rush of something that we know now as something that we take for granted every single day. If you look at 2020 and the companies that are making a lot of noise, you can make a very big case that the EV game is very, very new, the infancy stages, right? You have your Teslas of the world. You have your Nios of the world, the Porsche, right? The Porsche, I think it's called the Taken, the gorgeous car, absolutely gorgeous car. And everybody, pretty much every automaker is getting into the EV space. But again, at the end of the day, it's just something that we are taking and running with it, just like we did with the internet craze. And unfortunately, when the bubble burst, all those people that went into the casino that hit the slot machine for $150,000, they thought there were professional gamblers, eventually gave it all back and became statistics. And I've always maintained the idea that time is the best teacher. And unfortunately, a lot of you guys are sitting there very, very comfortable thinking this is gonna last forever and it's not. And just listen to what I'm about to tell you, okay? It's very, very important. You don't need to relive for 2021, 2022, 2023, what a lot of us, me and my buddies and a lot of you guys who did start trading during the dot-com era, you don't need to go through what we went through. We know everybody knows. Any professional trader that's been doing this for at least 15 to 20 years, at least, knows what's about to happen. Again, we don't know when, but we know. Maybe it lasts for another six months. Maybe it lasts for another six days. Maybe it lasts till Monday and that'll be the top of the market. We don't know, but we know it's gonna come to an end. We just know it. And the moral of the story is you don't need to give everything back. You don't need to be put on tilt. You don't need to become a statistic because you didn't see it coming. There's people out there that have gone through it, okay? Had major mental scars for years after the dot-com bouleverse to kind of show you what's about to happen if you're not very, very careful. And if you've been writing these SPAC names, and again, if you asked anybody six months ago, okay, a Shell company was literally a drug dealer's dream, right? It was a Shell company. It was money laundering, right? Now they're like the hottest thing ever. You create a SPAC name, they merge with somebody else, they get approval and the stock explodes 10-fold. Again, that's going to end. Everything ends, okay? Cycles end, bull markets end, bear markets end. So again, if you are new to this business, okay, and you're watching this broadcast for a very, very long time and you've made a couple of bucks and you're very happy and you've had some areas in your life for the better, now is your time to start thinking defensive, okay? Maybe I shouldn't chase that stock that went from $6 to 27, three days, right? Maybe I shouldn't. Maybe this idiot that's recording this broadcast and you listen to, maybe he's onto something. Maybe if these things do start coming in, you know, what the last thing I want to do is give back what I worked so hard for. And again, even if you're a brand new trader and you've caught this magnificent wave and a lot of us who've been doing this for a couple of decades, you know, we envy you, right? We envy you because now you have so much information that's at your disposal that you don't need to give it back, okay? You don't. And if you have right now 10, 12, 15 positions on, which is great and you've been riding the wave, you might want to start consider, you know, playing a little bit defense. Maybe start playing more defensive aggressiveness than more offense. You know, again, the stock market is still ridiculously hot right now. But again, if you speak to anybody, okay, that's been doing this for at least nearly two decades, we all know how it's gonna end. So just take into consideration, okay? You might, again, turn around and say, this guy's an idiot and I am. Listen, I'm the first one to admit it. I am an idiot, but I already went through it. All my friends already went through it. Anybody that's been doing this for a very, very long time, we already know what's about to happen next. The only difference between the internet craze and 2020, everybody I know, they're not giving it back. Okay, we're not giving it back. Even if you are a day early, a week early, a month early, okay, it's the money's already in your bank account. You don't have to think about the worst case scenario because you've been preparing for Doomsday for a very, very long time. And even if the market continues to be very, very aggressive, okay, nobody's telling you to start shorting the market. Nobody's telling you don't buy stocks. We're just telling you what's gonna eventually happen. And the idea of completely go aggressive, as they say, balls to the wall with no fears of no ramifications, that's being incredibly disrespectful to the journey you already started. And my approach going into 2021, again, obviously I do believe there's a lot of value left. Obviously I do believe the stock market can continue to be very, very aggressive, but I'm always keeping that one eye open for that magical rug pull. And again, that magical rug pull doesn't happen in one day. We've seen over and over again how the market comes in two, three days, holds the rising support and goes right back. We're not talking about that. We're just conscious of technical analysis of stock levels finally being broken. If it's Monday, if it's six months from now, whatever that day is. Again, nobody's calling for Armageddon on Monday. Nobody's calling for the stock market to implode. We're telling you, what I'm telling you is basically just keep your eye out forward. Any levels of technical breach below the rising 20-day support, below the rising 50-day support is going to start an avalanche. And again, you might not see it coming because again, SPACs are going crazy and this one's going crazy, but there's a lot of evidence that already has started coming into fruition the last month or so that you could start seeing that the market is not as great as you think. Now again, if you go look at the indexes for the last week, you're not going to get any clues. The Dow, the S&P, and the Nasdaq, we're all pretty much flat, okay? And again, you could turn around and say, well, it's Christmas week, a lot of people are often absolutely, again, it's that theory if there's not going to be any materialistic changes in the market when there's nobody around, especially for Christmas. And this week is going to be dead as well. You'll see there's going to be a lot of people just close their books, just done for the year and they're going to start picking up where they came from the first week of January. So I don't think the market is going to give us any materialistic clues this week, but again, if you are a believer in history, in time being the greatest asset you could have, not only as a trader, but a parent, a husband, a friend, everything, okay? Time is always the best teacher. Then you have to really start thinking of the future, okay? And again, when you do your self-assessment come December 31st, so towards the end of the year, whenever you close up your books, you have to ask yourself an honest question. Was I a byproduct of arguably one A or one, right? The greatest stock market of all time, or did I finally kind of get my moment of clarity? Was there something that I did different in 2020 that I didn't do in 2019 that is going to prepare me for 2021? Again, that's a question that every single trader should be asking you, like, where's my faults? Where can I improve? Where is the area that I can get better? Am I putting in enough time? Am I putting in enough time that is productive what I'm looking to do? Is the market cohesive to what my experience level is, my income level, my account size, my paying times? All these self-assessment questions, you have to really take into account when you go into 2021. If you're talking about, if your first thought of 2021 is, yo, we're gonna kill it, bro, you're not gonna kill it. Okay, trust me, that's a gambler's mentality. That's the Hail Mary on the first play of the game that's hoping and praying the market continues. So your goal when you're doing your self-assessment is really play devil's advocate and try to figure out where you can get better for 2021. So you don't become a statistic in 2021 that you don't have to go through what me and my friends and so many countless other traders who unfortunately found success so early during the dot-com era and then gave it all back and then went two years without making any money. So this is your kind of time towards the end of the year. Reflect, be very proud of yourself, okay? That you've made it another year. That's a very, very important point. Be very proud of yourself because confidence is all we have as professional traders. And again, I don't care if you're trading for one day or you're trading for 30 years, you're a professional trader. Once your first deposit goes into your brokerage account, your bet is made, you are a professional trader. So don't think for a second and don't let anybody tell you for a second that you are not a professional trader. Your money is just as green as everybody else's. But again, this is a very, very important time in your life to kind of take a step back, reevaluate what you did right, especially what you did wrong in 2020 and make sure that you are around for 2022 because again, gamblers make money. You could come into a casino, you can hit the slots, you can go on the big run on the cards, but there is a reason why the house always wins. You just keep that in mind. And this is kind of where, this is where I was just kind of thinking out loud. I did my prep work for Monday and there's a lot of names that I like. You can turn around and these stocks like INSG had a really big run consolidated for a couple of days. Looks like it's about to take out the area. Tesla looks really, really good as well, right? And they did the whole inclusion in the S&P, had that crazy move, they pinned that, excuse me, they pinned that 695 close, they painted it and now it's trying to go back to 52. So the obvious names are there, right? You could find a million SPACs and all this different stuff. But I start looking at the names that our market leaders have been traditional market leaders and names that just haven't been doing anything for a very long time. And if you look at a stock like Amazon, and again, I have a theory, okay? My theory is 2021, I believe that there is a very high probability that money flow will start going into a name like an Amazon, okay? A name like a Facebook, a name like in the video, right? The problem is, you know, and again, there's a lot of them like that. The problem is these stocks haven't done anything for the last, you know, two months, okay? Every single time you think these stocks are gonna explode and finally join the 2020 party, they disappoint. And I have a theory that any hedge fund, any index fund, whatever the case may be, they've been raising money throughout the year whether they do their quarterly raises or the semi-annual raises, or even a yearly raise that they're getting fresh money, they have to put their money into something, right? No accredited fund manager, no person's been spending a long time is gonna turn around and say, you know what, let me buy some SPACs for 2021. It just doesn't make sense. Again, if you believe in the EV revolution and you believe in the neos of the world, you know, maybe you have a leg to stand. Not all these other companies, I really don't know too much about. But the moral of the story is, I think a lot of these managers who've raised money into the fourth quarter of 2020, they have to put their money into somewhere and there's no better place to put it into an Amazon's of the world or Nvidia's of the world or Facebook's of the world, because number one, they're great growth stories, right? They've been phenomenal companies, they're speculation darlings, they're hedge fund darlings, everybody loves these stocks. So if I'm a betting man, and I'm not, but if I'm a betting man, you start seeing money flow, especially in the early part of the year, into these big heavyweights, okay? Now here's the question, what if I'm wrong, right? What if I'm wrong? And the money flow doesn't go into these companies and these companies are not reflecting the value anymore for 2021. And what if these companies don't need to rally, right? We think they're gonna rally, they're positioned to rally just because they haven't done anything in such a long time, especially, you know, especially a name like Amazon has really done nothing, okay? For the last, and you can make an argument, it really hasn't done nothing from September, okay? You know, you're talking about a long, long time. Yeah, of course I had a couple of days that I made its move and it came right back down. So ideally, we're thinking, you know, I'm right, I'm guessing I'm right, that's kind of where I'm leaning towards the start of the year. But again, you have to start looking at technical analysis. Now what happens if this area here breaches, right? Then we go down to the bottom channel. What happens in the video, right? I've been watching, if you've been watching this video now for, you know, for a month, you kind of know, I've been waiting on the video. Why doesn't the video have to go higher, right? It's been rejected off this top of the channel for a long time, right? Starting to test this bottom channel. You know, why does Facebook have to go higher, right? I mean, look at the bottom channel here. If this thing starts breaching the bottom channel, it can go lower. Zoom that we had a pivot on Friday off that 278 level closed at a very, very important area. Now what happens? You know, why does Zoom have to continue for 2021? So you're seeing a lot of charts like this this is where you really have to start using your brain. Again, I've always maintained this stance. You don't need to be the smartest trader in the world. You just can't be the dumbest. And at this juncture of my career, I'm always thinking of the worst case scenario. I'm always thinking to myself logically, well, if the stock hasn't gone up, well, maybe it goes down, right? And again, it maybe is just a thought, okay? Until it actually happens, this is just a thought. This is just something that you are possibly preparing for because again, it's logic. Whatever it doesn't go up, must go down. Whatever it doesn't go up, must go down. So it's very, very important to kind of going into the new year of eyes wide open acknowledging, okay? Acknowledging that maybe we weren't that smart in 2020, right? Maybe it wasn't our skill set that got us from point A to point B. Again, we should feel very proud of ourselves and you should really continue to celebrate your growth. But again, I think 2021 needs to be approached with a lot of cautious, okay? From a thinking person's point of view, okay? You can't just throw caution to the wind and expect results from 2020. Again, I had a trade on, it was at Wednesday, Thursday, the stock EOSC, one of these crazy stocks, right? And again, it's a name I wouldn't usually be trading. And I bought it at 16 and change and I sold it at 18 and change and then I watched it go to $23. Now, this is not normal, right? This is not normal and you can't possibly turn around and say, well, a $16 stock isn't gonna go to 24 the same day, it just doesn't make sense. So this is kind of what I mean by, you have to tear down your expectations for 2021 and start using your head, start using, some of the people's experiences prior to you and what they've went through so you don't have to go through. And I think if you really do a breakdown, if you just take a couple of hours and look at your sheets and if you've been keeping a journal and some people do, some people don't and kind of really just self-examine, just kind of break down your 2020, you're obviously going to see a lot of things that you're proud of and you should be, okay? But you're also going to see a lot of flaws that weren't so obvious because again, the market made you right, okay? And that's very, very important. So for all you guys who are trading for this week, again, don't expect a lot, okay? I still think we'll have some speculation names continuing the EV names of the world, the SPAC names of the world, but don't try to recreate the wheel the last week of the month. Majority people will not be trading. At least the majority of people that are pushing big money. You saw that with the option flow, especially in the last three, four days of last week. So stay very, very calm, trade for cash flow, but more important guys, start thinking of your future. Start thinking more from the development stages and just take into account what did happen in 2020, your place in it, how you've progressed, but more important start its time to kind of re-evaluate where the areas that you need help with, okay? And try to fix those before the new year starts. Guys, I wanna wish everybody a very blessed and healthy and happy new year. For all you guys who are trading this week, you're degenerates, but I'll be there as well. For all you guys who are not, take the time off, spend some time with your family, get right, right? Recharge the batteries and cheers to 2021. Have a great week everybody and God bless you all.