 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Basil Chapman. Call now. Call free at 1-877-927-6648. Good morning, everyone, Basil Chapman. I just wanted to answer a question. Chris wanted to know, you're always talking about the historical references and milestones and social trends, the guideposts to the market, etc. And he goes on and then wants you to know about, he had ordered the book called The Psychology of Investing, something where I have a chapter in going way back to the late 1990s. It was published by the Harvard Medical Department because it was part of the psychology, a very big conference there here in Boston. He had all these famous people talking. I was just lucky to be able to be invited. But I had an article which, chapter, it was, so, you know, Dave White used to talk about this a lot, our TFN Dave White, our late Dave White. And he spoke about a book called Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. This was actually first published a little while ago, just a couple of months ago, in 1841. Nothing changes. Human psychology never changes. But there are other books. And I would do this, Chris. I would use your own personal references. I can see the government of things that you also noted. And just say to yourself, I call this a period of accessibility. I'd call the period of the 1990s as we were going into that major top in 2000 period of great accessibility. And that's all you have to do. You know, the pendulum swings from sparsity to accessibility. And I was talking to someone the other day, we were talking about, there are studies now that are saying that young people, you can go up to almost 40 or 60, depends on what paper you read, medical paper, that is. 60% of young people feel tremendous pressure. And I always say, it's a crazy, just to think about that, when this is the most, most spoilt period in the history of mankind for all of us, I mean, just think, I always think of Mozart. You know, Mozart had to, he wrote over a thousand pieces, he had to write them with family and kids running around, all sorts of things. He had to write them with ink, he had to put the ink into an ink well, it used to always bump and spill. He had to draw the lines for the staves, the mark, the staves for all the pieces, or they could have got, maybe he got them, maybe he didn't always didn't have enough money. He woke up in the morning, he had his commissions to finish, and it's freezing cold, there's no heat so that you can speak of, where's the bathroom? And everything today is just, the young people have it at their fingertips, they have everything. So, but if you always, if you had to measure the tenseness that people have, tenseness is tenseness. So if you're tense to a degree, eight out of ten, doesn't matter that it's eight out of ten in Mozart's time, it's eight out of ten today, but someone looking from the outside can say, wow, you've got everything else, it's just really this, I mean, you know, all I'm saying is that this period of accessibility, you want water? No, there's no water, you can't find plain anything, you got to have this water or carbonated or color, the texture, whatever it is. Every single thing, there's a variety, every single day, you've got a super market, there's new products. So use, just, you don't have to read books. You can get a sense that at a certain point, this era of accessibility, we're getting into it, I don't know if we can give maybe another year and then there should be a really, a really good, I don't use a word cleansing because it has all these other social connotations, but there's a real whittling down of all the accessibility. You know, people here in the Boston area, they don't know that there was a period when I was looking at houses where if I made an appointment to see someone, although I usually did it by myself without any real estate agent, they would look at me and say, thank God you've come, I haven't seen anybody for 16 months or 18 months and the prices have gone, been cut almost in half around here, people wouldn't believe it, but the houses were cut in half and the last recession, maybe Newton, Massachusetts, maybe went down 10%, 15%, maybe some houses were less, but most of the houses were very close to the asking price, so all I can see is, Chris, I'll go to it and I'm going to go through a bunch of things over a period of time, there's no rush for that part of it, but I'll talk about what I see as accessibility. All right, let's get back to the market here, the TLT, very important, it made just the chance of a Chapman Wave volume price climax low on the 3rd of May when it hit 94.54 after having, look at this, it's tutoring along, it was pulling back in the dreaded age pattern, that's in the Chapman Wave of the Arch formation, back on the 31st of July, the low was 99.62, the next day, the high is 98.92 was the high in the previous day, the low was 99.62, the next day, the low of that day of the 1st of August was 97.90, the next day the high is 97.24, again the following day, there's a huge gap down, and that's where you saw a huge, not an explosion in price, but a big volume increase, I like an explosion, I want to see volume is, I mean, maybe double the average, but at least 30 to 40 or 50% even above the biggest volume spike that it had in over a year or two. So this is kind of not in that category, that's number one. Number two is, we're talking about interest rates, there are a whole bunch of factors that go into the interest rate, so it isn't like a stock, it isn't like the KRE, this is the KRE is the S&P Regional Bank, Banking ETF, which had that massive move to the downside, also with the big red candles and a huge gap to the downside and a nice price reversal the following session, and that was the 34.52 low of the 4th of May, or there are others as well, I'm just going through the ones that I talk about here very often, or Schwab's 45 round number low, and then retested at 45.65, quite a few weeks later, about a month later, and then it had a move all the way, even now it's trading well, it's up at 65.55, so that's different. So I'm just saying that it's important we're going to monitor the TLT, I just think that yields TNX.X, the 10 year yield, which is where rates for automobile loans and all things like that, credit card loans, that's about, it's trading at 4.009, 40.09%, it's made a peak D in Chapman, we've always brought looking at D's and E's, how far can you drop when you drop quite far, and now it's trying to find a home. I just think it's stuck in a range for now, in the upper range, but still stuck in a range. All right, now let's get to the nitty-gritties. A couple of questions came in, I'm going to do this real quickly, so let me go. Here we go. Dow is now 440 points higher at 35,565, 35,679 was the higher was the day that we actually shortened it, we've got a pretty tight stop in that, it wasn't an aggressive short at all, so we're going to be watching that. S&P right now is up, it's gone a little higher, and it's up 55 and 45.22, I'll be right back. 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All right, so the dollar is now down 41 ticks, but look at this, EURUSD made this peak top, peak D right here with the doji can run about the 17th of July. Pullback sharply. It's attempting to make a U-turn right here, but if you look at the weekly, that nine is still over the 14. So I just wanted to speak to this issue for a moment because it's been so pertinent to everything I've discussed for about the past month. When you go to, maybe I'll just go here and I'll show you something very, very interesting. Look, let's see. This is this SMH as you can see right there. Just turned pink and it's made a beautiful one to one is the price that the low should have been there, but I use that I can go a little conservator kind of do it in a conservative way initially and then I can be a little more aggressive. So it's done that one to one to the left side, right side to the price time match. I call that bar symmetry with the plumb line in the middle. It's not quite the middle here, but I want you to show you something very interesting. Look, here's the Dow. I always, I said to myself, don't mess the chart up. It told you such a good story before you know what I'll do. I'm going to do this. I'm going to say click, copy, paste, and then do I have it? No, I don't. Of course, I don't have it. I wanted to put in. I used to have it. Maybe it's in here. Drawing objects. Oh, there it is. So remove. They are removed. There we go. Move drawing objects. I'm just going to put everything that I can see that's written in. Of course, if I could read it would be very good. Arrows up, arrows down. Wait, what's going on here? Select all under select all and then we'll go. Okay. Yeah. Okay. So now what you can see is this green line, the nine period moving average that is solidly green. Look at the I want to show a particular chart. And that was the chart of Apple. Yes. So the chart of Apple. Look, just a brief moment back in March or so this year, but from the low that was made January, we could January the 6th. No, it's not. It's the next one. It's right there. From January the 17th, except for those two days. This is the first time you've got the pink nine period exponential moving average. Isn't that quite something? Look at the IYT, which is the transportation index. This is the first time that you've gone pink and that's the reason why I feel very strongly that over a period, this nine-period moving average can hang in even here. Look at this. Here's the top in the IYT back on the 2nd of February at 247.86. It took 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 sessions before it went pink. And here we are. We're 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8. This is 8 sessions today is the 9th session. So I have a great deal of respect because it tells me about I call it the technical tool of last resort. It's like I always say the Federal Reserve is the bank of last resort. Well, in this particular instance, I'd be waiting and waiting and you can see that these balances, look, even here, you've got a little green candle in the SMHs, but the MACDs speaks to castings very on balance volumes very weak. It just says to me that the upside right now is extremely limited in certain sectors. Look, he has NVIDIA. This is from, look at this, from the 12th of January of 2023. This year, 12th of January, this is the first time it's gone pink in the 9-period moving average. And you can see what's the target, probably this left side low of the 26th of January of 401, round number 401-00 and we're at 430. So it could take a little bit of time, but that would probably be a decent retracement. It's just a couple of weeks retracement of this huge move. It hasn't even gone to the gap. So this is really important. There's something very different about a chart like GE. Come on, GE, let's have you, oops, coming up or click. There it is. Look, GE is, even today, it's up nicely, up 2.56. Walking the 9-period moving average ever since, this was December, wasn't it? Let's go to, yeah, December the 29th, December the, it goes green and it stayed green from this level, right here of 64 and here it is almost double at 114. It's been almost double already. It's been to 117 not double, but it's a pretty decent move. Okay. So you've got, to me, I have respect. That's all I'm saying. So I wanted to show you that. Now I want to go to all the questions that I have. The questions that I have, some of them are pretty much the same that we always get GDX. What I think, I just don't think GDX is ready yet. Look, it just cannot get, look at the distances between the pink 9-period moving average and the 14. Look how far away it is from the 200-period moving average. Look at the daily MACD, how weak it is. Because the stochastic tries to rally, GDX gold minus couldn't even rally much and it's still 11%. On balance volume is good. This is the gray line right here. That's relative to strength. So it's steady, but it's weak in the 44 area. And the GDX which I did this dreaded age, if it closes for two weeks underneath the low up to 2876, the week of the 10th, week of the 30th of June. And now I've got to start looking at this whole area to the 26s, 2650 as support, 2660 actually. So all I'm saying is I don't think it's ready. I also don't think that the dollar right now is ready for prime time. It is just a decent rally going back to where it was a few weeks ago. And that tells me that the USDJPY, which has made a new recovery high and laying E is, and we've been talking about this for a while. I've been saying, I believe that the yen, USDJPY currency pair should go to 143.07. 143.069 was the high of the week of the 30th of June. It should make a leg D. So so far this is a leg E in the daily chart. There are, and that just tells me that all the conditions that we were looking at even just a few days ago are still kind of in place. And that this market is, in general, if you look at the SLX, someone that then said, Yaccarina, S1 said, the Yaccarino on CNBC is the ex-US Steel CEO. Well, look, we discussed this the other day. The Steel Sector, Veneq Vector Steel ETF made a high in the 70, was that 71, 10 or something? 71.42 on the 25th of July. And yeah, it is a 65, 66, not a big deal, but there's this, look at the match from the vertical test right here. We're gonna find my vertical line. The test from way back in March, the weekly chart to the high that was made three weeks ago, the magnies much weaker than the stochastic was over 80% is holding well, but the test goes on quite strong. I'll be right back, that was a 401. Tigers, candlestick pattern analysis is a primary tool among successful traders, and you should be no different. 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So, looking at the core cyclical stocks, some ones that really are the ones, they pertain to the deepness of the economy like DuPont, DD trading right now. So, this is RTX, there's RTX which I think, didn't Raytheon take over DuPont? I'm almost sure about that. I should know that very well. I'm watching it all the time. So, Raytheon just gapped down and said a real problem, so this whole defense area, maybe that's a good sign to see the defense area tanking like this. DuPont's held up well near the highs, near the recovery highs. Caterpillar made all-time highs just about a week or so ago. That peak each top at about 293, in the 293 area. Let me just give you the exact price. 293.88, it's holding well. It's at 286 right now. And PAVE, which is the infrastructure, Global X US Infrastructure and Development ETF, is trading already well. It is up 23 cents. I made an all-time high also about six sessions ago in the 32s, trading right now, 32.36. You've got to ask the question, how come, how could this, in this, you know, very usually just, I'm sure all of you get emails all the time saying, banks, thank God, you've got, you know, just they've held up, but they're about to crash and all this stuff. But you're just going to go one step at a time. And this pertains to Chris's thing about the market fear. That's kind of news-driven. But if you look at the, you look at the deep cyclicals doing so well, not the steel stocks so well, they did okay, but they've been stalling lately. This is quite amazing. Look at this, HDX, we just got stopped out of, we did this as an attempt to pick a top in the HDX, but it was actually one of the stocks, told brothers, we got stopped out. It's very small losses, but it was an attempt to get, to pick, like I did with the Dow, to attempt to pick the exact moment of the high. So it needs to go to a bit of a cushion instead of trying to get it as it's coming down because then you can get really big balances. Then what do you do? But in this particular instance, what we're looking at is, look how beautifully the whole housing sector, and it's got a peak C, there's no other way I can count that right now, and should have one quick pop above the high of 580.63, which was the all-time high, made just three weeks ago, and you should see a D, and then it should start again to go sideways. So I think that the upside now with certain sectors, the certain stocks is kind of limited. I'm going to put in that particular category stocks in the SMH, like an NVIDIA. I think now the upside is very limited. You're going to get some big spikes, but my guess is that it's in a digestive phase, a very important digestive phase. I don't want to go through them all. It wants micro, et cetera, trying to balance. It's just not sideways, not doing all that well, and you've got others. I want to see Intel. Question came up, could Intel now take over from where NVIDIA was just in terms of rallying, not as a company, at 34.98 up 70 cents? No, I think it's always had problems that should remain a problematic issue, but here's the issue that I'm really looking at, and that is when you're going to hack, which is the global prime cyber security ETF I had re-notated this the other day. I'll have to do it again. I'll do it right now, all of us together. There's your peak D, whoops, peak D, leg D. Now it could be a peak D by tomorrow's close in the weekly chart, leg C in the monthly, and you've had a beautiful peak A in the daily. Here we go. Is this as simple as that? You identify the low bar, then you count each successively higher peak. If it goes higher by one penny, it starts a new leg up, it becomes a peak, whatever letter it is. That's a B. That's a C. I don't think it made it. I think it missed it by a penny. So you've got 52.11 on the 19th of July, 52.11, and you've got 52.11 on the 27th. So that remains a C. By one penny, it would have gone to a D. Now it gets you a D, and now we have it. This is a signal to cell mode because it closed so sharply under the 9-wind negative. So that could have a bounce, could even take that out, but that's the designation right now. So you've got the cybersecurity stocks where individual ones did really well, but as a group they've been really lackluster. I'm kind of surprised. I would have thought that the prime cybersecurity ETF would have been way higher. Everybody needs the security. I don't quite understand it. I wanted to go to Bitcoin just for a moment. I had a question. Where do I think Bitcoin is going? I think it's stacked for now, but I think if it gets down to the 28 to 27 level, that's where I'm going to see whether or not it is time to put some money to work there. So this is a huge bounce in the market. Is this a bounce that like every other day that we've seen this week, it just gives back the gains and even goes very negative by the close. I think there's enough buying here to hold this just a little bit longer and then we'll see what happens maybe throughout the day and then we close very nicely from those of yesterday, but off the highs and then we'll have to deal with tomorrow. But yes, there are some sectors that are, let me just look at the QCOM. So the question is, when would you add to QCOM, the Qualcomm that is. So Qualcomm trading at 118, up $1.43. Forgot what the exact question is. God, I think it was add to it. I was either to enter or to add to it. I don't like gaps like this that don't get filled very quickly and as we got, it did get close for the next two bars, but then it gave it back. I would just say the weekly chart is suggesting it's stuck in a range. So Qualcomm, personally, I would just hold off. I don't see anything big in Qualcomm just yet. Maybe in about three weeks time, that's different. Next question came in a minute. I put it away, I couldn't do that. Did that, did that, did that, did that. Oh, S-O-U-N. This is Sound Hound AI Inc. A shares connects any voice enabled products. I think that that's what I got. I don't know if that's really what it does. Trading down, it said 198 to down 7 cents. I'd be really careful of these single digit stocks that are really fading to participate at all and just making lower lows. This could go broke. So just, I'm in the category right now that you want to be very selective with your money. You can take 2%, 3%, even 4% losses, especially if you know that you have the capacity to make 10 or 12% quite quickly to get that money back. But this is different altogether. You can get in 198, they can announce anything and it could be at 98, you've lost a dollar. That's, I mean, that's a big chunk, 50% of your money. So yes, I think we're starting on the way down. I just wanted to show you the e-mini chart again. Sideways, sideways making lower lows and lower highs. Remember, I've kept this line and people said, how can you keep a line in, what does it mean? So this goes back weeks. I don't even remember where it is. I could go back and find out. I'm not prepared to do that. I have this horizontal line. And I said, going out a couple of weeks, I would not be surprised if this particular horizontal line of 42.30 is going to be hit above and below. It's going to be like a magnet, like a fulcrum as the price goes up and down, up and down. Where are we now? Five, up there. Old report. As a precious metal, gold is still king. It continues to hold the most effective safe haven hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market, the US futures market, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The Gold Report. 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It's trading at 759 right now. Actually, this island reversal is not something that you should panic about in the sense that anything that trades overseas before us is always, not always, but mostly has gaps. You can see it. What will be extremely important is if speed, you remember I said speed is of the essence right now, especially in the weekly chart. I would put it to Tuesday, maybe Wednesday of next week. There has to be a test of the 830 to 840 area. Whoa, that's a long way to go from here now. But that's the way it has, for this to work really well. And you remember the thing that we don't know because winter, the buying for natural gas comes a little later on and starts, I believe the end of August, the beginning of September. I might be wrong, but that's where the influx already comes in. So what happens now is kind of subsidiary to that. But I'm just saying that if we start to see a trade above that candle, that was the candle of the 30th of June, 783. It needs to get above 783. And it needs to do that on a closing basis in the weekly chart. That's the only way I can see in the shorter term for it to start to build a base in this bowl formation in the weekly chart so that I can say, I'm now really comfortable to say natural gas has formed some kind of a low that is a consequence of a tradeable low. I can only say a low of consequence because if it takes out $720 or $7, it's just back in this range in the system. No matter what happens, natural gas just doesn't want to hold the gain. So, okay, I thought I'd just touch on that because there were questions about it yesterday, nobody today, but I wanted to follow up because this is a way steeper move. My thinking was that the left side high of... This is the UNG. The left side high, United States Natural Gas Fund of the 26th of June at 783. It should test it at some point. Well, today's high is $777 and the low is $757. That's steeper and quicker than I would have wanted to see. So, that says to me, and now you've got to be a little careful, but looking intermediate term, we are starting to see higher highs and higher lows. That's really very, very important. Now, I wanted to go back to this chart right here. I should have actually finished off while I was talking that 45, 28, 45, 30 level of the horizontal line got taken out. I meant to talk about this much earlier. Whenever there's a news event, this is the one time that you... Even if you have everything in order, you could see a failure. I call it the peak A failure. It's the Eiffel Tower straight up, straight down. This is after the 839 or 950 News that comes out. Well, we've just seen that. Look at that huge turn down. That's the reason why I didn't say to subscribe. That level that we got into in the Dow for the short side was right just about at the top because of the instrument we used within. It was really close to the top. That just gives us a cushion and you need to have it because, look, especially when you've got the 914 so strong, let me just go to it right now, especially when you've got this 914 so strong, to get it to flip to the negative side, it takes a lot and you've got to be prepared for big balances. So if now we start to make higher, what? Lower lows and lower highs with a close below, I would just say a close below 35,000 says bingo. Now we start to see, you can't have the general lead without the troops and that's what the Dow was doing. Now either the troops start to come back in line and continue higher with the Dow or the general or in this case, the general has to say, all right guys, we'll take a break and I'm coming to join you and that's the way we're going to be watching it. The day's young. We've seen this kind of whipsawing, a couple of hundred points down there and the Dow up and down. But what I am going to do right now is to tell you that giving back 830, we were trading right there. This is the 830 or the 829? No, this is 840. 830, there you are. The 830 were right. So this is the candle for 830. So this candle of 4508, once we close on a 10-minute basis, under 4508, if we're going to do that in this particular phase right now, that just says, uh-oh, this is telling us that there's distribution and distribution says that when something's going sideways at a high, oh, I should have shown you the chart that we just had, something's going sideways at a high like it was here in this kind of rectangle formation right here, you've got to be careful because when it takes out that base, you can, the base of support of the rectangle, you can go one-to-one to the downside or more. That's what we've kind of done. Now this 4530 is like a magnet. It wants to try to get back there. It was so quick to pull back. It wants to say goodbye to its friends and it has to, we'll see if it's able to do that. So within that context, where are we? What are we looking at? We're looking at something that says some of those AI stocks. Let me just look at it and we go back here. Actually, I've got a ton of stocks and let me get to them right now. AI is the C3.ai Inc. It's made this arch formation which is quick, P-K-B-C-D-E-F-G. It's amazing how many times it made slightly higher highs. Now it's arching over at 3349. My eye says that there's a good chance that 3157 will over 27th will be hit even if there are a couple of balances. It's a peak D in the weekly chart with the dreaded age forming right now. Another question came in. Let me just do this real quickly. These are questions that came in. Oh, I got one that I didn't see. Let me just think. Was that for me? RKT. RKT, that was Rocket something. Yeah, Rocket went to a higher high. It's in leg E. We were doing this the other day and I said, yeah, this is good. I've got it as a flat base restart potential. I don't know. And that says it's 1157. It doesn't give you a time. This particular technique doesn't give you time. It's called the Chapman Wave flat base restart. And I said I'd do a little bit of work to see if it's not an instant Chapman Wave instant unconventional flat base restart. Everything about it says it's got that look. And I did this before. I'll have to do it again. So here we go peak A. I'll just tell you what this is. Oh, I'd all written down and everything but I did lose some of my data. Little upsetting. It's in leg D in the weekly chart. Monthly chart is in leg B. Doesn't look great once upon a time. It was up in the 40 range. Then it went down to the fives. And now it's trading at 1166 up 18 since I had a really good move. So this is what I'd be looking at. But I need to do a little bit of work and I'm going to say my premise right now is that it's creating an extended arch. It can go out for a while. And I would say by the end of August, maybe the beginning of September, there's one swish to the downside that tests 10 and that's going to be the big thing. That's a then sort of brand new move. So there's a difference, huh? Yeah. So the national best contract. I actually didn't say it but UNG applies to the natural best contract. I'll be back. That was a few seconds. Live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. And now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger's Den available to all Tigers and Tigresses for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. 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When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from Veteran Day Trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years' experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. TFNN.com Educating Investors Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com Then hit Watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com Then hit Watch Tiger TV. Tomorrow's technical Friday, I'll do a little bit more of this here. Look, yes, it's left side, right side, twice the time-match, it's bar symmetry. From the left side to the right, just a bear chart. Think about it, it's got a candlestick. It doesn't have to be at this particular point. So here we go, we go to the right and look what happens. Bam, right there. So this is green, that is red. It doesn't have to be exact, but it gives you a sense and it gives you a sense of, look, there's a W formation, U shape one on the left, U shape on the right. That's the big one. But it also says rectangle formation and it's climbing this wall. Pick A, there's a 30-minute chart. A then under it's got A, B, C, D, E, F. I might have missed one, but that's what I've got right now. Now you're getting your big pullback. So it says to me, look at this. There's a midpoint in this big kind of like rectangle formation and that just says that if this, and the kind of coincides with that 45.08 level I was doing about a moment ago, and it just says that that makes this whole area here with prices be like a fulcrum like moving up and then coming back to the midpoint and then coming down. And it just says at any point if you start to go under 45.08, but I actually think that there's enough residual strength just in terms of saying we've been down so severely in some areas for a couple of days and yet the market kept trying to come back and then failed. This is the day that you might reverse that whole thing and I still see, I missed one. Okay, it's a G. Thank you, Dan and the dead. So within that context, what I'm saying is that there's enough, let me just do this real quickly. Here we go. Here's the Dow. The Dow is holding the ninth period exponential moving average just beautifully. It hasn't crossed negative with this group up to date. I think it's a process and that if by next week we'll proceed, if we start to take out 35,000 in the Dow, you'll see that 9 feet moving average start to be negative and then the Dow joins the troops. The right now, it's currently joined the Dow. So just a mixed session with more positive reactions and check out more people that use that. Thank you.