 This is Covering the Spread, part of the Fandull Podcast Network. We've got four playoff games across the NBA and NHL for tonight, three of which could be elimination games. We're gonna break down all four of those games with Austin Swain, Guinea-Is-Reed on them from a betting perspective over at Fandull Sportsbook. This is Covering the Spread right here on the Fandull Podcast Network and numberfire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for Number Fire. Joined here as mentioned by Austin Swain. Check him out on Twitter at ASWain3. You can find his work over at numberfire.com. Austin, happy playoff to you. How are you doing? I am doing great, Jim. I can't wait for these games tonight. I think we've got a bunch of elimination games, but I didn't even realize this until you said that. I am picking no elimination. So for whatever reason you like, don't like NBA or NHL playoffs, I am not the guy that is projecting the outcome that you would enjoy. Is this just wishful thinking where you want to make sure these games keep going? Because I've had fun with the playoffs so far this year. So honestly, I hope you're right is what I would say. Yeah, I didn't even realize it until now. So I don't think it could be wishful thinking, right? I was diving into the data yesterday. I came up with these slides and now just realized here I am the extender. That's what they call a Scott Foster, the ref in the NBA. I guess I'm the extender as well from a betting perspective. Well, we are starting the morning off in a banger of a note. The extender is an outrageous nickname. I love it. So let's dive on in. We'll get you ready for all those games here in just one second. The first day reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts. We have these going up every weekday right here on the covering the spread of podcasts. We talk in NBA NHL tomorrow. I think I'll talk some NFL with the schedules being slowly released. Why not? We'll talk some of that. We'll get into some racing for this weekend at Darlington too. And then Friday, Tom Vecchio filling in for me to break down, I assume, NBA and NHL then. All right here in the covering the spread podcast feed. So go search for that wherever you get your podcasts and if you like what you hear, leave us a five start rating Apple podcasts as well. As you probably know by now, the NBA playoffs are in full swing and you can get in on the action right from first tap with Fandwall. Right now all customers get a no sweat same game parlay every weekend when you bet the NBA playoffs. That's right. If you just place a three plus legs same game parlay or same game parlay plus on any NBA playoff game, you'll get bonus bets back if you don't win. There's no better place to bet all the playoff action than America's number one sports book. 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Let's kick things off in the NBA here, Austin Beginning, with the Heat and the Knicks. Right now, the Knicks are three and a half point favorites. Total here is 209.5. The Knicks are on the brink of elimination. Jimmy Butler, I believe questionable for tonight. When you look at this game, Austin, you mentioned no elimination. So we know you're not taking the Heat Money Line here. What's the read on Heat and Knicks? So I think that the Knicks here can force a game six. I think it's a bit odd that I see a majority of the tickets and the handle coming in on the Heat on Fandals Sportsbook. At least that was the case yesterday. I would assume it is just because they played so well. When New York has such a clear sense of urgency advantage here, one of the key four factors into winning basketball games, basketball reference has their four factors for winning, is offensive rebounding. I cannot believe this series. I feel like I'm living in the twilight zone because New York is still first in the playoffs in offensive rebounding rate, 35.8%. Miami is the second worst team remaining at 26.1%. As has been the case in majority of the series, Miami led game four and second chance points 17 to seven. There was a really tough whistle in game four. Even the broadcasters were acknowledging how odd some of the calls were. Some of New York's key offensive rebounders like Mitchell Roberts and Julius Randall, Josh Hart, all of those guys had like five fouls well before halfway through the fourth quarter. So they were deep into foul trouble. And I think at some point, this advantage is going to show up. I can't turn my brain off and I'm watching these games. And then I will watch, I think almost the New York shooting has been so bad and so inefficient in some of these games, especially in Miami, that it's messed up their rebounding matchups because I watch a shot miss badly and then it carams all the way out to a Miami guard. Whereas if these shots were any closer, New York has a significant size advantage inside. And I would not be surprised if they came all the way back to win this series. That's why I picked them to win this series. I should pick them to win it in five. And I've been loud, loud wrong about this since. So for full transparency, I've been on the Knicks this whole time and they haven't gotten it done, but I really do think that shows up. I like the Knicks to cover tonight, three and a half points with a decently comfortable win. And I think the marquee game of this series would be game six in Miami. You want the spread with the Knicks at minus three and a half right now, that Fandall sports book is minus one 10. As you mentioned, the tickets largely coming in here on Miami for this game and Jimmy Butler able to play still listen to this questionable, but he should be good to go. No real questions there. When it comes to Butler for this one, when you saw him back in game four, what was your read on him as far as like a health perspective? Did you feel like he was the full Jimmy in that game? Yeah, he certainly was active. I typically look at defensive activity for injuries, especially like ankles and knees where a guy, that's the end where you'll typically show it up. Butler had a few key steals, got out in transition. He looked totally normal to me. What stood out to me in game four, especially Miami's offensive efficiency, shooting from outside Duncan Robinson, banged a few threes. Max Struce was really good from outside. Gabe Vincent had a nice bounce back game as well. That was what stood out to me in game four. Jimmy was still creating fine off the dribble and I think he's mostly himself at this point. Okay, so we still like the Knicks minus three and a half but Butler as always is lurking there as he tends to do. Second game of the night is the Lakers at the Warriors right now. This spread is seven and a half in favor of the Warriors. The total is 226 and you talked about sense of urgency with the Knicks, it seems like betters are banking on sense of urgency here with the Warriors. They're seven and a half point favorites down three one in this series. So what do you see with this one, Austin, with the Warriors now seven and a half point favorites? So yeah, interesting spread, right? Given that the Lakers have just won the last two games. I think funny enough, a lot of public sentiment is driving this. I saw yesterday on ESPN headline, should the Lakers rest their starters for game five and set up for game six? That is a how-to for dummies, how to blow a three one lead type of example. What you should do is if you just completely punted this game, I don't think the Lakers will but I still really do like the Warriors spread. I like a Warriors blowout type of field game. So that kind of leans me also toward the under. And you know, this is a Lakers team that consistently though does let their foot off the gas. I think that's where that question comes from is like maybe we don't try it all if we're just gonna go in and mail it in like they had. When they've had a lead in a series on the road, their own three so far in the playoffs, average point differential minus 18 in those games. And by the way, an equally fast-paced Memphis team, average total points to 12.7 in those road games where the Lakers have kind of mailed in. You can tell what their shot selection, you can tell what their defensive effort and the game is usually decided. The Warriors are going to rebound in this series if they're shot quality from game four holds. They went just four for 18 on wide open three. So these are golden state Warriors, right? Two of the best shooters in NBA history. That's 22.2%. They're at 35.1% in the playoffs. And by the way, they're well below their regular season mark in the playoffs thus far as well. I can't trust this Lakers team in this situation. And I think there is absolutely a scenario where this spread could be eligible for a backdoor cover. Maybe they're down like 12 with four minutes left and Darwin hand pulls the plug anyway, just so AD and LeBron don't play another 42, 44 minutes in this game. Because really I think their best chance to win the series comes through game six. I do think they'll give a spirited effort tonight. But the Warriors, I like the blowout angle of this game because of how the Lakers have handled this situation previously. So minus seven and a half the spread there for the Warriors, minus 110 on that. And then minus 112 on the under at 226. If you wanted to pair those together via a same game parlay, odds are plus 238. Now the interesting thing here is in order to win by eight points, you need to score a lot of points. That's kind of the one thing. But like you said, you can see teams shut things down in the playoffs if there is a larger spread, which can lead to fewer points. So it's a couple of dynamics at play here. Would you want to pair those together, Austin? Or do you think that there are better bets individually with the Warriors minus seven and a half in the under 226? I do. So both of these teams, when you take some of their core players off the floor, like I would consider that Draymond, the shooters and Wiggins for the Warriors, LeBron, AD, D'Angelo Russell for the Lakers, their offensive ratings drop at least 5% points East. You have less talented offensive players going out there. Maybe the defensive effort isn't quite as good, but ultimately if you don't have the top shelf guys out there, the offensive ratings drop, and you do see unders correlate well with blowouts in the NBA. Now you're exactly right that in a competitive game, you're probably looking at a higher score. If this one stays competitive throughout and maybe Golden State is able to cover eight points after a late surge, the under is looking in bad shape there. So combining those together, it's not like free money. It's not like free, it's just combined together on the same game parlay for plus 238, but they do typically correlate decently well. Like I mentioned, when the Lakers tend to mail it in, they really struggle offensively and that's why you see the low totals well below 215 points in their games where they've done that historically. So if you take that angle like me, it does make some sense, but you're exactly right that there is a very specific push pole with that dynamic. And it's a dynamic specific to the NBA, specific to the playoffs as well, where you need to plan ahead for what could happen with a potential game six. So Austin is on the Knicks minus three and a half, Lakers minus seven and a half, the Warriors Lakers under 226, potentially parlaying those together at plus 238 if you want to do that with the same game parlay function for the Lakers and the Warriors. Let's shift focus now and talk about the two NHL games, Fortnite and start things off with the other potential Eliminator. Here we got the Maple Leafs at the Panthers right now. The money line for the Leafs is minus 125, total is half, minus 134 in the over and Florida is on the brink of a sweep here, but Toronto is the favorite for tonight. So what stands out to you in this contest on Austin? So I'm feeling good. I feel like math is running well last night. Both of the teams that were comfortably winning their series and expected goals ended up getting it done. That is Toronto here, Toronto in that method. And I know this sounds dumb because they're down 3-0 in the series. Inexpected goals, they're actually winning. Expected goals for 60, 3.60 for Toronto in the series, just 3.07 for Florida, but you'd have to pinch a Florida Panthers fan. Any of you out there could attest to this. I told you a month ago, Sergey Babrovsky currently leads the NHL playoffs in goals saved above expectation. He's been outstanding in net for Florida in a season where that's why they were the eighth seed. They were plagued by goaltending and defensive issues all season and he's been stellar. But if this level of skating for Toronto keeps up, I think there is a dynamic that can absolutely help them crawl back into their series. So Ilya Samsonov is Toronto's goaltender. He's posted negative 0.29 goals saved above expectation this postseason. He hasn't been good. He was good in the regular season, but it hasn't been great. Now because of injury, they're turning to Joseph Wall tonight. And Joseph Wall spent most of the season with the AHL and the minor leagues. But when he got spot starts, he was actually really good. If you look at his per game average of goals saved above expectation, it's higher than Samsonov and it was well higher than Babrovsky. So we've seen underdog stories in the NHL before. Can this guy who spent most of the year in the minor leagues now he's called upon to save the Toronto Maple Leaf season and you know, if they got swept out of here with this team against the eighth seed, it would be rather humiliating. But can Joseph Wall save them from the brink? I think he can because Toronto's out skating them. He played well in spot duty and it'll be interesting to see if Toronto can carry some of that momentum and extend the series. Yeah, as mentioned, the money line here is minus 125 in the Maple Leafs. You talked about the expected goals differential here and it seems like people are not, they're privy to that based on the money line differential in this game. How much of that is playing into your thoughts in this game where you think the Leafs can keep this thing going? How much of it is motivation given they're on the brink of elimination? How much of those factors each playing into the thought process for you? Well, so, you know, a big part of my NHL process is I actually look at, I think that you're exactly right. I think expected goals are typically more so factored into the money line. Now, the gap that I mentioned, 3.6 to roughly about three flat, you'd normally see like a minus 200 money line in that situation. But so there are results at play here with the Florida Panthers and how they've prevailed and Sergey Babrovsky and how he's played as a part of that. But I'm looking for Babrovsky to regress. I have a larger sample of 50 games from the regular season that said this guy was really inconsistent. I don't really want to buy Holy into, he just got his job back, I think five games ago. So I don't want to buy Holy into this hot stretch whereas I think Wol can produce well. And that is typically what I think will carry Toronto in this situation. They needed motivation last game if they were going to have maximum motivation because I actually don't know what the status for the NHL. I know in the NBA no team has ever come down for a three-0 series deficit. It's not where you want to be. So I think max motivation is obviously at play here but Toronto's skating better. They're getting better chances. They're generating more looks. Babrovsky's been a stonewall but I don't think that stays forever. Well, I feel like I follow a lot of Maple Leafs fans on Twitter. So pull in for them tonight because I want the timeline to be happy. So we'll see how that one plays out in the first game in the NHL. Second game is the Vegas Golden Knights taking on the Edmonton Oilers. Right now the Oilers are minus 184 on the Moneyline total. It's also six and a half year but minus 152 on the over end. This game Vegas has a two-to-one series lead but the Oilers are at home for tonight. Seeing any value in this game, Austin? Yeah, so I hope that the universe wasn't listening to me because I, in my betting guide on Monday, called for the Vegas Golden Knights to start Aiden Hill in goal. I thought it would be a better chance for them to get even with the Oilers. Unfortunately, Laurent Brasois got hurt in that game for Vegas, even though he got the start in net. It looked pretty serious and they're expecting to turn back to Aiden Hill. I think that's a good thing for Vegas. He's at 1.44 goals saved above expectation in his two appearances now. That's already the third best mark in the playoffs behind Babrovsky and Caroline as Freddie Anderson. So he's played really well. He played well in spot due. That's like why I said, well, maybe give him a shot and he will get his shot tonight. And these are very evenly matched teams where the goal-tending situation, which is a little bit iffy, should determine these outcomes. Vegas is at a 53% expected goals for rate in the playoffs. Edmonton at 51.9%. So they are neck and neck. Vegas also probably battled a little easier opponent in the first round with Winnipeg versus Edmonton draw Los Angeles. So the difference has been whether or not Stuart Skinner can outplay whoever is in net for Vegas. That's been the push-pull in this series. Skinner was outstanding in game two. Edmonton won comfortably. He was terrible in game three. Vegas won comfortably. So these chances are very even. I do have a lean here toward the Vegas puck line because of how Aiden Hill is playing. That factors in a potential overtime situation on the road. But the price is the issue here. I would hope for about minus 145 on the puck line to start showing value. I think it's showing up around minus 155 in most places you'll find it. So I'm not in love with the price. The over is another situation where I'm looking at. A lot of these Vegas Edmonton overs have been six and a half with juice moving that way. I've got the over in this game at about minus 130. So it's minus 155 minus 160. It's not the best price, but that's kind of the direction I'm leaning is a close game Vegas covers the puck line. But I do like the over in this one for these two talented offensive clubs. Yeah, the bummer on both those is that you're paying a hefty price. The over on the total is six and a half minus 152. It's same on the puck line. The plus one and a half for the Golden Knights is minus 152 as well there. So it sounds like for you kind of a stay away overall once you factor in just how heavy both those prices are, correct? Yeah, and that'll happen in the NHL when there's so little scoring activities. These lines can be very efficient. I would call these lines very efficient. You know, I don't see particularly a lot of value. I don't think it's a terrible bet, but you don't have to bet every game. So I think I'll probably pass on this guy. No bet is better than a losing bet. So that's for sure. As always, keep that in mind. That is Austin Swain. Make sure you check him out on Twitter at A Swain 3. Find his work over at numberfire.com. Austin, as always, wanna thank you for swinging by for today. Good luck to you with your bets across the NBA and the NHL for tonight. We'll have you on again here soon. You'll be filling it for me on the solo shot on Monday. So looking forward to having you on over there as well. That's right. I'm looking forward to filling in for the solo shot. It's one of my favorite things to do. And also make sure to tune in Friday because Tommy props, he gives out winners. So Tom Vecchio, he's filling in for you, one of my best friends. So absolutely looking forward to hearing him on the CCS on Friday. Is there a good UFC sleep this weekend or no? We got a road show in Charlotte. So the main event is like a minus 550 money line. So there's not much drama inside of that, but it's a pretty good card. Lots of interesting strikers. I'll have a preview of that. Betting and DFS really angle. They kind of interchange on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed on Friday. So we'll have a podcast for that guy too. Love to hear it. That is Austin Swain. Check him out on Twitter at A Swain 3. Thank you, Austin. As always, I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. Good luck to all of you through bets for tonight. Back once again tomorrow talks. Maybe some NFL. We'll talk some NASCAR in Garlington. Maybe get a little bit weird with some better recommendations there. Should be a lot of fun. We'll talk to you all again soon. This has been covering the spread right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network.