 Great welcome to the last set news. My name is Rob and as the thumbnail and tile suggests I am buying and actually Bitcoin hits a pretty big metric Which is the longest there have been for seven days We'll talk exactly about that and why I decided to keep DCA and maybe just maybe get into a little bit of alts Also, we'll talk about how the ETH merger is coming about and there's gonna be a new date Which was announced we already talked about this, but I'm very skeptical, but perhaps I'm actually wrong also, we'll dig into a polygon post Disney announcement on They have a new one coming out on July 20th as opposed to be fantastic So the question that becomes that we're going to buy the rumor and sell the news and lastly I want to talk to you about this prospect of the fourth turning and 80-year cycles and last it was talked about how we might be doing a meet-up in El Paso this Wednesday For anybody who is in the area. So first things first. Thanks for joining me I appreciate that on a Sunday and a very hot Sunday to be specific here in El Paso almost 98 degrees It is what the market's doing. So Not too bad. Honestly Sundays are for dumping. I know James will talk about that Mondays of the dump days but this depends on the day and Today's whole not pretty nicely actually almost 21,000 for Bitcoin the theorem is up 1.2 percent that new news Which is great merger coming about, you know a couple months or so perhaps But remember that's not going to do much for gas fees or or speed or things like that And it's and it won't even upgraded to 2.0 We still have to get the sharding and that's the third leg out of the three And of course merger is just the second when they go from proof of work to proof of stake So it's great, but it's not great great great Anyhow tatters, no one cares by it's going everything's Kind of sideways a little bit. Yes, it was a pretty big run polygon is up 7.4 percent I gotta tell you I think it's gonna be a little bit more of a pumper for quite some days We'll get that in a second and that's just what's going to market one thing I do want to take a look at quickly which we never do I think it's important to to talk about this is 24-hour volume and 24-hour volume you can go to coin get going do what I just did which was just click on there and just take a look at The volume of the trading volume the last 24 hours You can see the tether a lot of actions been having with tether and of course that's 46 billion 515 million 200,000 that's a lot of transfer Bitcoin, which you think would be the number one, but no It's actually 31 billion Ethereum 16 billion XRP is number four and the reason for that is there are rumors of a Settlement going around that is just here say your honor I have no idea if that's true. Don't quote me on that But there are some rumblings of a settlement coming down But you know, I've been hearing about that for the last six months of take that with a grain of salt But it's interesting though that a rumor Can make the 24-hour volume do that USD coin by an instant classic Solana For some reason 1 billion and polygon with all of the things that are going on Still just right here. I mean they just had an announcement from Disney. There's another big announcement coming up I think there was announcement previously from meta. So I mean, it is pretty amazing that the amount of Volume that goes through tether interesting stuff. Anyhow, that's what's going on the market And then this is what I was talking about as far as 70 days and there's an old phrase Which talks about When people are greedy you should be fearful when people are fearful you should be a bit greedy One Buffett said that who also hates Bitcoin. So take that with what it is But it is true a lot of times when a lot of gains are made not financial advice Just telling you what I believe it's when there's a extreme fear out there and right now We are below as far as a fear and greed index It's been a score below 25 out of a hundred for the last 70 days. It's a long time. It's a long time for people to be scared of their minds going It's gonna go down. It's gonna go down and let's be honest It hasn't hit 14,000 hasn't hit 12,000 and it's they pretty much a 20k for quite some time Now does that mean it can't go down to 14 or 12 or 13? I'm not saying that and there was just a report out from Jake and Morgan recently Would said it would say that the break-even point for Bitcoin monitors was 13,000. So that's what people are calling for I'm not sure and I'm not sure and I can just tell you what I look at these things. I just think to myself And George Cameron talks about is this cheap or is this expensive and let me just show you this People are scared of their minds Here's a 200 week moving average heat map and you can see that very few times This is the 200 week moving average. It's nice little line right here. It goes along here Very few times is Bitcoin below this and right now Like look at this. It was below this on March 14, 2020 when coronavirus came out and it's below this again today So I take a look at this. I'm like, is this Inexpensive or is this super overpriced? Well, I tend to look at this and thank myself This is pretty cheap. The next question I asked myself is can it go lower? Oh, yeah It can go lower But I'm not smart enough to figure that out and all the geniuses out there that that told me that it was going to go To the moon were wrong and all the people who said that was gonna go to 3,000 were also wrong depending we'll see So I don't know which way it's gonna go. I can just say that's why dollar cost average But there's some things that I look at and there's a reason why I bought today First of all, I used to dollar cost average every day But now I just do it once a week and I just kind of do a what's called value cost averaging I stopped for the CPI numbers. I figured those were gonna come out pretty hot They did I took all the money that I would have put in every day and just stuck in there I want to hit 19 like 19 to doubt 9,200 right now for it doesn't matter Uh, and then today because this is my day and I just bought a little bit of Bitcoin but there is one thing that I'm I know on this channel I'm not the most bullish person. It is true Uh, but there are some things that I'm looking for and uh, some of these things is that You have to you can't deny that we've had a pretty strong resilient market Uh, especially with those CPI numbers that came out I mean take a look at the s and p 500 and that nasdaq took a little bit of a hit But then the big thing is well, what's really what we're all it all comes down to there's a couple macro events, but it's inflation There's a great website app.trueflation.com I had Stefan a CEO on a couple of days ago He explained to us about how he took these 30 data points and you can break it all down from the inflation points from food non-icolic beverages 10.39 housing, which is going through the roof transportation hugely expensive go uh, have fun trying to travel these days Utilities, of course, we see those all those things and how they break down and that could be Natural gas like trissy bugle does only that all these things can be broken out and take a look at the website's 100% free and when I take a look at this The inflation rate was almost 12% at one point and I know people don't really trust the Fed. I get it no one really does But I think some of the things they're doing are actually working now This is we could debate this all day long about if inflation is going up or going down Obviously the cpi numbers were elevated. However, those were retrospectively looked at What i'm looking at here and i'm not saying this at the end i'll be all but I can see that there is a little bit of a reduction in The inflation rate and these 30 different data points that they get and we talked about this There's a link in the description actually and that links it to the discussion with the ceo All these data points they also use chain link and it's it's an oracle and it pulls all this Real side data Into this program this program spits it out and said this is what it really is so when the government is saying no It's transitory or it's 6% or 8% like no, it's not it's like 11 12% and they were right there So maybe this could be exactly what we're looking for and if inflation is going down That means potentially the fed could pivot at some point if that pivots I think that's what all markets are looking for and then of course what happens. Well Good things happen because then things start to actually increase. So that is my my Bullish case for what's going on. I did buy a little bit of crypto today Bitcoin being one of them We'll not talk about my other altcoins that I bought but I did And we'll see what happens and the next big date to look out for July 26 and 27th when the Fed comes out if they come out and they push it to 0.75 basis points It's not really going to move the market. I don't think they come out for a full basis point Expected to dip and that's why I don't buy anything From here on out until that day and I will wait for that announcement to come out And then if it comes out makes and it's higher than expected. Well, guess what market market goes down That's when I deploy the cash up and save it or if they come out and announce Hey only 0.75 basis points. I buy immediately and that's what I'm doing. I'm not telling that's what you should do I'm saying that's what I do. That's not financial advice. Anyhow, let me just think about that in the comment section That's the bulk of it. Now. Let's go to just some small things, which is just some housekeeping, which is this The merger uh, the ethereum merger is supposed to be coming down the pipe and it looks like The date is september 19th. This was from a tweet that they put out from A conference that's uh, I think it was an online conference that the different ethereum developers came out and said look Okay, this this this and on the week of the september 19th some around there That's when the potential merger day could be and everybody gets so excited And I was like, yeah, right I don't see this coming because I've heard the same thing about a bitcoin ETF And everybody got all hot and bothered for that one and I'm like that's not gonna happen. Sorry And I guess people are just getting tired of me They're getting tired of my negativity I suppose and it's not negativity It's just reality and I could lie to you and I could tell you yeah that ETF could happen It's not happening and then for this one I could say yeah, it could happen But maybe i'm wrong and I hope i'm wrong, but you have to remember This ethereum merge is just the second part of the third part and the trilogy Of whatever they want to call you 2.0 right now. I still am very bullish on ethereum Heck everything's built on it and polygon's layer 2 solution is fantastic. It was picked up by disney and a bunch of other different players and a lot of the different Dan D gen projects are actually built upon polygon because it's a super fast and super easy to use So I'm still bullish on it. I just don't know about this merger. So When I see these things I'm like, yeah, maybe it won't happen But that doesn't matter because uh, this is what the response was So ethereum total value in the e2.0 deposit contract just reached an all-time high of 13,000 13,000,000 that's pretty good At a very short amount of time. I think it was all because of the news So what does that mean? Hopefully take a look at defi lama links in the description. You can check this out as far as total value locked Here's the overall Total value locked is almost 80 billion in defi Locked up in this particular part and not that these things are relevant together. I mean, this is just great The e2.0 deposit contract. We take a look at the defi prospects and ethereum ethereum is 50 billion out of the entire 79 billion So again, I know when people say well, this one's gonna take over this one take over. I still like ethereum Just has that advantage and that's what's going on. So the question then becomes Well, is this going to be by the room or sell the news? potentially And I will just tell you if it was me and I was thinking about this and There's no news that comes out that that merger is not going to happen and I've got time I would take a look at that September 19th date and go Maybe that's an opportunity to do something. I'm not gonna say what that is But I'm just saying it's interesting that it comes out people lock up their ethereum and where things are going Oh, and by the way Uh, the price action as far as ethereum goes 10% over seven days, not too bad. Anyhow, which thing about that in the comment section and then let's finish up with Just real quick polygon post announcement This is uh I'm gonna mess this guy's name up for sure Uh, mihalo shellage No, I didn't did not nail that he's the Co-founder of polygon and he's been having these cryptic tweets that come out because as we already may have a minute No, disney picked it up polygon to Like an incubator type of program. It was one out of six and it was the only blockchain Our crypto digital asset that was actually picked up By disney to help them with their their ai I think it was metaverse plays and ft's So that's a big boost and then this gentleman says hey, just you know in four days. This was on July 16th Our dream we started Zero x polygon wasn't become the go-to web 3 platform one that will constantly push the frontiers in four days A new chapter will start polygon is reaching where we always wanted it to be Again, let's give you one of those by the room or sell the news But I can tell you that uh, that might mean a little bit of a pumping for polygon Take that as you will. So that's what's going on the polygon world. I own a bunch of polygon I think it's going to do great for full disclosure. I'm super biased. I think we all know that And let's move on to our last piece. So I did give you a lot of A lot of good stuff, right? Not too super negative. I didn't kick your teeth in today. You're welcome, but uh I can't do that constantly. So let's talk about some bad news. Here's the bad news You know, I'm a big fan of the four-year cycles Four-year cycles look like this There's a halving 2012 bitcoin halving. We get an all-time high dip or reset 2016 another halving 2017 all-time high dip resets 2020 which I thought was not going to happen, but it did there was a halving in 2020 That's going to happen. I knew that was going to happen because it always happens four years But I think the all-time high would would extend in 2022 and I was way wrong on that one all-time high We're on 67 000 and then we had a big dip and reset. That's why I think we're not going to see a lot of action until 2024 2025 You can look at that in two ways You can say yourself well that sucks not going to make too much gains or you can say gosh darn it I got two to three years to accumulate not telling what to do But uh, this is where I made all my money pretty much just Boring times. I wasn't around 2016 just an example, of course That's when I buy second best time when it's kind of shooting up and you can kind of write it up there just saying Those are the four-year cycles. There's this great book It's called the fourth turning and people when talking about you probably hear about it more Uh, you hear about it from actually some some bitcoiners out there and this was a book written in 1997 Getting a lot of traction lately for some reason And when it goes through it, it talks about the economic turmoil or the world turmoil Uh in four blocks and it's actually over 80 years, but they break them up into four 20 year periods Which is kind of odd That again You got four blocks four years. I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but this is just what it is There's a great video and it's by van. Nice that I've linked in the description. You can watch it. It's 10 minutes It takes this big fat book and it condensed into 10 minutes. It's awesome So here's what it is for these 20 years So going back before 1946 into the 1800s and 1700s It was the same thing over and over again, which I believe these cycles are the same thing over and over again And it's the same thing going on again. So they're talking about in these four year cycles just to just to really push this down Or bring this to light Is that we are actually on the last piece of these 20 20 year 20 40 60 80 the last piece Of these cohorts In these 80 year cycles and it always starts or ends, excuse me With some type of economic crisis and or a war I hate to say that but it's true. So the last one was It was the world war two victory 1946 and that's when Yeah, nice little war world war two came about Nice little victory and it leads to a little bit of uh, united states dominance for the next, you know For decades upon decades. So the first 20 years everything was on a pretty good Pretty good trajectory. There was economic growth. Same thing happened here with a little bit of a Of a difference as we start to really start to accelerate. They call it the awakening but then In the second half things start to as they call unravel. There's economic unrest. There's political unrest There are different problems and of course in the last piece which in the last or the fourth part of 20 years Which started with the 2008 2009 housing market crisis and bubble and crash Which is now we're potentially going into the last piece And I will just tell you this. It's kind of weird these 80 years stop with a war so 1945 was world war two it take 80 years before that was our civil war and roughly 85 years before that was our american revolutionary war And it seems like it all kind of keeps going again and again I'm not going to get into it But I just kind of was thought it was very interesting about how these things repeat How much it looked like the four year cycles before and how things just Kind of stay the same even though People say it's different and I got to tell you again. I just don't think it's different It's the same thing. I'm reading this book This time is different. Ryan Hart economic Economist goes over the last eight centuries of economic turmoil and just says how everything repeats So for me, I did take a look at this This to me is the prime opportunity to invest because I don't know what's going to happen 2028 or 2030 if everything rings true Does that mean it's definitely a true ring true because Rob said it? No I'm just saying it's just amazing how everything just repeats in a cycle So for me, this is the time to invest and get things going before just things turn to hell on a hand basket And yeah, that's it for that for that piece and lastly I'm sorry. That's pretty that's pretty grim That good news if you're not passive on wednesday, we're gonna do a little meetup I think we're gonna do it at coconuts on the Central part of town. So I'll give out the location and the times and all that stuff probably around four ish five ish Some around there. I'll make a coconuts got a couple friends that work there. So should be good times come and Meet me. We'll talk and we'll drown our Drown our sorrows and beers and tears. That's it for today. So look That's it for the news part. If you want to stick around for the q&a I'll try to answer your questions the best of my abilities and we'll go from there But if you got to take off it is sunday. Relax. You've earned it. It's been a tough crappy week So get out of here. If you want to stick around. Let's do that