 Welcome traders to another Ticknill weekly market outlook for a week commencing the 31st of October with me, Patrick Munley. In the US markets, we'll have a broad range of US data and events to digest over the next couple of weeks. Most importantly, Wednesday's Federal Reserve FOMC meeting is set to result in the fourth consecutive 75 basis point rate, given annual rates of core inflation are heading higher rather than lower. The economy has returned to growth with a decent third quarter GDP report and the labor market remains robust with job vacancies exceeding the number of unemployed Americans by four million. The tone of the press conference and the outcome of next Friday's jobs report will then help mark its firm effect expectations for what the Fed may do in December. There have been hints that officials could open the door to a slower pace of rate hikes and after 3.75% of interest rate increases net after Wednesday, there is a strong argument for taking stock of the situation. Unfortunately, the data hasn't been moving in the right direction and market watchers will probably need to see a noticeable slowdown in the month-on-month rates of core CPI increases from 0.5 to 0.6% month-on-month towards something more like 0.2 to 0.3% month-on-month to give the Fed the confidence to moderate the pace meaningfully. At this stage, it isn't just markets are confident that this will happen in time for the December FOMC meeting, so there remains the strong possibility that markets will get a fifth consecutive 75 basis point hike versus the 50 basis point view. Attention will then shift to the midterm elections held on November 8th and a bunch of different scenarios and potential impacts the polls seem to be shifting in the direction of Republican controlled Congress which will greatly limit what President Joe Biden can achieve in the second half of his presidential term. This means less government influence on the economy and will put more pressure on the Fed to cut rates in the second half of 2023 to support the economy as nothing will come from the fiscal side. From a technical perspective, the Dollar Index continues to trade within our invalidation and target levels, so we have an invalidation level for the downside objective at 109.09 at 113.85. Currently, what I'm looking for now is price to correct here versus this last leg to the downside three-way corrective move, something similar in scope and scale to what we saw in the last corrected leg and then I'm looking for a new low ideally into Wednesday's FOMC meeting and from there I'm anticipating we could see a pop in the dollar and certainly think about a move back up to test 112.12 after we achieve the downside objective at 109. Moving to the Eurozone. In terms of data next week, Monday we get October CPI, so Euro per year, last time about 10% core inflation remains and comfortably behind Eurozone. We also get Q3 GDP, 0.8% clear weakening in domestic demand to be evident there and then we head into Wednesday, October S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, last time out 46.6 and that's the final estimate for month and then we head into Thursday, we get the unemployment rate 6.6% anticipated to remain holding at those record lows and then we ran out the week on Friday with services PMIs, final estimate looking for a 48.2. So from a technical perspective, pretty much the inverse to the dollar index really, looking for price to hold support here at the 99.29 30 area, looking for an extension back through prior cycle highs 1009 and then on to the interim upside objective, which is 101.60. If we clear that on a closing basis, our next upside objective is 102.45. Moving to the sterling dollar and the UK in terms of data next week, really is all about back of England. It was unthinkable really only a few weeks ago, but now markets think a 50 basis point rate hike is narrowly more likely than that 75 basis point rate hike which had been priced in prior to the political stability or some sense of stability that's been restored over the prior week or so. Some denigrally a close call and whatever happens to the committee is likely to be heavily divided, but in recent speeches, policymakers have been signaling that markets are overestimating the amount of tightening left to come. Meanwhile, following the various policy view turns of recent weeks, the expected boost from the fiscal policy now looks similar to what was expected before September's meeting when it opted against the 75 basis point move. With the latest data not providing clear justification for a faster hike and sterling now stronger than it was before September meeting, markets think there is a good chance that the bank will under deliver or on market expectations. So from a tentative perspective, sterling broke through the resistance at the 11490 backtesting now, so I'm looking for ideally a break higher here through that 115 level to set up a grind higher into our target zone of 120. At this stage any pullback should find initial support into the 11311 and really it would take a close through there to suggest the potential for retesting or invalidation level down to 10920s. But for now, the focus is on a grind higher into our 120 target zone. Moving to Japan. In terms of data, Monday, September industrial production looking for a negative 0.8% print there, interim fragility on weather and softer global demand, still a bit risk there. And then moving to Tuesday, we get the manufacturing PMIs, final estimate 50.7 anticipated, and that's, sorry, then Friday, rounding out the week we get the services PMI, final estimate looking for 53 per there. In terms of the dollar yen, continuing to look for a downside objective now at 14325 versus our invalidation swing higher here at 14970. So I've been looking for prices to roll over from current, from the current levels and extend down into the high volume and then onto our target zone 14325. At this stage any close back through the invalidation level will open a retest price cycle highs up to 15190s. Running out of data down under in Australia, what have we got? Monday, September retail sales looking for a 0.5% print there potential. Whisper number is 0.3%, gentle slowdown in normal sales, partially reflecting price rises. We also get private sector credit looking for a 0.7% print there, emerging gradual slowdown as policy stimulus starts to be reversed. And then heading into Tuesday, with the RBA rate decision, markets are looking for a potential of another 25 basis point increase there. RBA should respond to the deteriorating inflation outlook that we are seeing. RBA governor will be speaking at a dinner on Tuesday evening. And then heading into Wednesday, we get September housing finance looking for a negative 3% print there potential, the negative 2.5% down sharply to start of the year and more falls to come, albeit with some stabilisation anticipated in sales volumes pointing to a more moderate pace in terms of the September month. Then heading into Thursday, trade balance looking for a 9.1 billion print there, exports are pretty flat really, obviously coal volumes down and imports are anticipated dip after that strong burst seen in recent months. And then on Friday ran it out, down under with the RBA statement on monetary policy, looking for forecast updates there with Q3 retail sales, looking for a sharp slowdown there as price surges start to impact retail expenditure there, so looking for a 0.2% print from a technical perspective, the Aussie is correcting its initial equality objective test at that 65 in 13 level. I'm looking for a three way corrective move to find support here into the 6370s. And from there, our next upside objective is 6590s. And if we can start to build acceptance about that, then we're going to start to think about that major trade line test on the daily timeframe 6740s. And just rounding things out, as always with a quick sentiment check in terms of Bitcoin, Bitcoin broke out of our triangle, traded to both our initial upside objectives, the 20,400, 20,963. We are now looking for pullbacks to find support into the 20,200 level. And we are looking for a test of our next upside objective, 21,461. And that concludes the weekly market outlook for a week in Wednesday, October the 31st. As always traders, plan the trade, trade the plan, and most importantly, manage your risk. Until next time, thanks very much.