 Okay, very good morning to you. Hope you are well. It is Thursday the 9th of April So first of all just a quick word remember to like and subscribe to the channel very much appreciate it I've had some really quite fantastic comments on the the video is not about the video in terms of my delivery But about market questions and Jacqueline. I think you've had some really awesome questions as well last couple of days But I absolutely welcome people to comment. I'll reply throughout the day I'm going to be sat here all day anyway at home. So more than happy to help as and when I can This is the Amplify trading comm website if you've not come across us before and you're landing on this channel for the first time remember to check it out when you land on our home page basically if you're presented with a few different options so dependent on really whether you're a Trader or someone looking to get into trading then just click on that professional trader program here There's a few different options that we have in terms of the way of which we train people from an on-demand E-learning platform where you can just pick up and go and it has kind of fixed on-demand videos as well as rolling Daily updated content or we have more intense training programs the latter Professional one where you can trade real company capital then we if you're a student We've got the summer internship training program. It's going to be done fully online so as per I mean we've just Want a contract with city group and we're going to be doing a day on their spring week for example, so a lot of these Big banks are still wanting to deliver their normal spring weeks Their summer internships completely as normal but done of course Virtually rather than being done in person just given COVID-19 at the moment So we're going to be doing exactly the same thing So if you're a student just click on that button there learn more and check it out But let's get on and let's look at the charts this morning. What have we got? Let's talk markets so fairly quiet open I would say and obviously today is I dub it OPEC day That's going to be the main kind of focal point that and initial jobless claims, of course Which we're going to talk about They're probably the two main things are on my radar as well as a surprisingly strong Performance by US equities yesterday, and I say surprising. I must you know as much as I I feel like I've done an okay job calling a few Market moves of late. I certainly haven't quite yet got my timing on on point for this equity move Still hasn't yet really Powered on but yesterday we closed above that key level And since you've you know as you probably noticed I've been still quite bearish We were talking this time yesterday about this kind of bear market rally and have we got to that point now where we're kind of peeking in that bounce back that we've had since the end of March, which has been this Phenomenal push of some 500 plus points and do we start to fade back down now Following the overall down with trend and the overall kind of economic picture But yesterday we managed to close above that March June 2019 low We've not caught quite as high yet up to the 50% fib and the August 19 lows as yet But obviously that would be the upside target to keep an eye on in the futures Those lows in that fib level pretty much coinciding around a 2790 type level But I'm definitely interested to see how I perform here Obviously, it's a long weekend for most people because good Friday Remember when I used to work on my my old desk before I joined Amplify We only really had two days off a year and those would be Christmas pretty much well, it'd be New Year's Day and Good Friday would be the main thing Christmas day, of course would be a global market holiday, but Those were the two days where I used to think oh, thank you We actually get a day off because you know, there's not there was because we were a 24-hour desk There was always be one country that would be open, but good Friday is pretty much global in that sense. So No trade tomorrow. There won't be any briefings then picking up until next Tuesday because here in Britain where we'll have Good Friday and Easter Monday as well. So we won't be back in operation on the briefings, but just Follow me on Twitter. I'll be tweeting every day Irrespective of that anyway of anything interesting that I see but what'd be interesting, of course is going into typically an extended long weekend you sometimes see Prices just tend to fade a lot of people don't want to keep too many chips on the table or just going into an extended weekend just given the kind of The tail risk of something negative developing particularly in the context of something quite unknown and quite volatile like a Like COVID-19. So yeah, it'd be interesting to see where we finish today on that balance, you know I still think there's potential for downside, but look, I think better to just trade what you see hasn't come true so far yet so How it finishes today, I think could be quite quite telling going into going into next week and return from Easter but Let's just have a quick look at The coronavirus situation and then we'll talk about oil and jobless. So this is the overall total tracking now We're coming up to about 1.5 million confirmed cases just shy of 90,000 on the death toll One of the main things I was talking about yesterday We remember I did tweet this and this was something which featured in the briefing And I was talking about the kind of symbolic nature of Wuhan in China that kind of epicenter If you like of the initial outbreak ending its two-month lockdown and I was talking about this this idea about the inevitable Kind of return in second the multiple waves of the coronavirus and just generally how a Pathogen operates or let's say performs over a period of time before then eventual vaccines are developed and general herd immunity becomes more common But I did mention here on this last line I still expect lockdowns in the UK and the EU to be extended because I've always had this view that generally Governments have been acting in a two-fold way I think politicians have an objective where although they're trying to deal with it a health issue, of course They are also trying to manage public perception of the government's handling And so as much as you might think as a person in public Well, why don't the government tell the truth? Well, the problem is if you tell the truth It's a pretty horrific truth And so people don't always want to hear that because then they'll think you're not doing good enough jobs So what do you do? Well, you try to sound proactive. You try to give these kind of near-term targets that you're trying to hit but inevitably what I mean with with the Expectation of it being extended is that ultimately this is a much more complex issue That isn't going to go away perhaps as quickly as people might have envisaged and so Now this is what I'm looking at from the latest from JP Morgan estimates and they try to I mean obviously this is Manipulating data in such a fashion to give you just a graphical representation of this idea of where we are in the path of the virus so far And I think it's pretty spot-on. I mean you've got China and Korea obviously much more into the recovery end of the curve Germany pretty much peaking as to Italy and Spain at the moment Seen some fluctuation actually throughout the week number about two three days ago towards the beginning of the week We were talking about Italy Spain generally under the client But actually some of those numbers have peaked up a little bit more recently The UK the US much more still in the late accumulation Or be it out of the acceleration phase, which we're still seeing in some parts of the Far East but inevitably as I was kind of alluding to the UK is like to extend its virus lockdown by weeks Remember I was talking about I think last week the Deutsche Bank study where they were talking about The 12th of April they were going to look to reopen which is basically saying well, you know Easter Sunday things are going to go back to Out of lockdown or loosening the lockdown terms, but I always thought that was wildly Optimistic in terms of timing you know the death toll at the moment is pretty much at its worst point and According to scientists that they predict that UK will be headed into the peak of the outbreak over the next week and I think it will be quite interesting actually over Easter. I mean I mean I live in central London. So when I look out my window, obviously I live in a fairly densely populated area And when I look out I do see people just arriving in their car getting out with their friends going into people's houses coming out meeting family Pretty sure that's not what constitutes self-isolation, but I'm not criticizing them. It's just an observation But my point being is Easter You know, is there a risk that there's going to be more people doing that? Not adhering to what the government's asking for at this point in time And what's going to be a better way to deal with the virus and so this is why I think countries like the UK Perhaps a little bit different from countries like China in terms of their cultural response to these types of quarantine measures But also let's not beat around the bush the way that China Authorities tend to implement these types of rules is probably wildly different as well compared to what we have here in the UK for example, but Yeah, this is the the latest it's been confirmed pretty much in a Guardian Dominic Rapp that kind of stand-in Prime Minister is going to confirm this over the weekend And obviously things are getting worse and they're going to have to extend beyond that point I guess probably the likely milestone will then will be towards to review at the end of the month I would say it's probably most likely but I've already seen countries like France saying well Not the end of the month perhaps even longer than that and I'd expect this to remain the case in terms of these more moving goalposts The main thing that I want to talk about here is then let's move off that subject and let's talk a little bit about the oil market because They were I just happened to sit down. I was doing a Kind of private webinar for some of the guys on the the Amplify how now Amplify now portal So if you just go on the Amplify trading on the trading section you can you can get some more information on that But we were talking and all of a sudden bang oil prices just started popping What felt like a super aggressive move at the time because it really came out of nowhere and this was this move here It was quite interesting actually sitting here at what 7 7 p.m. Last night The news well, this is the problem and this is something I want to make you aware of the news didn't Break and then the market moved the market moved and there was no news now This is a very interesting point. I want to make you You know, sometimes that does happen particularly late in the evening generally It can be a little bit of a byproducts of that the time of day there's obviously very little UK European participation in markets only the Americans and It's a anomaly in terms of it's not a scheduled news announcements Something's probably come out and you know, if you ever looking at price or candlestick formations Whenever I see a candlestick formation like this over a pretty short period of time, you know It's pretty clear that that's a fundamental catalyst that's pushed that price This isn't order structure or market profile. This isn't Technical break of a level the the way of which these candles are formed would suggest that in order to see a price movement from 24 to 2650 that Undoubtably needs some kind of fundamental catalyst to just shoot the price higher in such an aggressive Short-term fashion now if it was a more graduated move kind of like this price movement here And it happened over the course of say half an hour. That can be a different. That's a different matter Yeah, if it happens in a one-minute candlestick one or two minutes typically, then there's a fundamental reason interesting thing The last night though, there was no news It took a couple minutes later until people started bounding around comments basically out of the Algeria Algerian energy minister who holds the OPEC Rotating presidency at the moment and he told this country's state news agency that they're discussing a massive output reduction which may reach 10 million bowels per day and that was what's being what was being pinned on the move now a Secondary point. I want to make here if you ever are you know You just happen to be there sitting and and you want to capture some of these moves the way markets tend to operate is It was quite a messy Release because there was no definitive one headline that people started circulating this Algerian comment on Twitter Which that's why you've got the formation of one two three four minute candlestick move Before here, then we hit the eventual peak and when people are jumping on what we call these fast money moves Just trying to profit off very short-term volatility Where do they look to? Exit a trade if they're in it long Well, they want to get out at the nearest clear as possible exit point and often that's when the daily pivot points are really good for that If you're in a fast-moving market offer news catalyst And you can see that happening here So people bailing just before it came up to that 20 what would have been around the 2650 In yesterday's pivots and then the market came all the way back down Fundamentally though, even though the market did come back down. That's byproduct I think of those fast money players just chasing the market up and bailing and then the actual trend occurring here Overnight is the more telling kind of move because net net if you actually look to where we were then into the overnight session We got back up to this area here, which was the initial spike high So underlying obviously these moves and that spike even though there was some short-term profit taking on the initial headlines Circulation is the idea that it's quite possible It seems that they're going to strike a deal to cut aggressively by 10 million as what some market participants had feared might not come to fruition So yeah, hopefully that explains a little bit more about how I observe and the execution around that type of fast-moving market I'm going to bring up The crude chart and we're going to talk about scenarios But before I do let me give you some background of what's going on. So timing wise today What is the deal while OPEC are having this teleconference call? Of course, that's going to begin at 3 p.m. London time Remember, it's the OPEC side of things we're looking out for today So predominantly we're what commentary out of likes of Russia and Saudi Arabia as well as the kind of non-Saudi Gulf nations And then you've got the G20 energy ministers They're going to be meeting actually on Good Friday that really goes to say a lot I think about the the necessity to get some sort of deal done Then meeting on that on a religious kind of holiday in that sense But that's where we're going to start throwing in countries like the US Canada Brazil the UK and so on So the the next two days is really important Talk let's talk over what the latest news is so Russia has said Wednesday yesterday that it's willing to reduce Output by 1.6 million barrels per day or roughly 15 percent and that was one of the other Supplementary bits that came out with the Algerian comment at around the same time 7 p.m. London last night that fueled the price higher The Kremlin insists the US should do more than just let market forces reduce its record production So still a little bit of pressure or pushback coming on behalf of the Russians in regards So they want the US to do something more meaningful in order for them to agree with Saudi Arabia that they're going to take some sort of coordinated action Now the US demand now this is some interesting stats I think help with context the US demand on crude has now fallen to 14.4 million barrels a day. That's the lowest level in data going back to 1990 and down from more than 30% from the pre-crisis level So again, we are country that's essentially gone into national freeze if you like or lockdown meaning that activity has reduced substantially and travel is down Immensely and so therefore demand when you're looking at the supply and demand balance is severely decreased now The world uses about 100 million barrels a day But some traders believe it's consuming just around 65 million at the moment. So that's quite a catastrophic Decline in demand if you think about these numbers that we're talking about the world on average consumes about 100 million barrels a day of crude oil We're Hypothesizing then going off the data that these banks are punching these numbers is that that's hundreds dropped to 65 But we're talking about an OPEC an entire coordinated or producing agreement to cut production by 10 million barrels a day The mass doesn't quite work out in that respect. I mean the demand short for I mean It's much larger than the most Mystic cuts even if OPEC plus went to 15 million still doesn't quite match up to then even out the market. So Beyond I mean if they deliver 10 if they deliver 15 if they live with the latter the price is going up I mean because people are generally Very pessimistic about OPEC's ability to to get a deal over the over the line So delivering on the most high bullish end would be a massive surprise and prices would fly higher in that scenario But what I'm saying is over the medium term even if they did cut a deal I just wonder about the longevity on its ability to better support price given the catastrophic nature of the drop in demand, but only this Record level historic cut to crude production, but nowhere near. I don't think to offset that that demand side the other the other thing I'm a little bit also Somewhat sceptical about is let's say they do cut a deal Well, how long is this deal enforced for now? There has been a little bit of variance in press speculation about this some have said three months some have said to year end But obviously there's big differences here now. I guess you have to kind of think about well What's your view on the u-shape v-shape Nike swoosh shape type recovery? We're going to see in the global economy post COVID-19 When does COVID end and how quickly does the economy recover will probably go in sync then with the general demand curve as well So here you've got to make some big judgment calls I think if OPEC for me, let's say they agree 10 million You might get a little bit of a relief rally that they've confirmed something in oil But then if they've done three months, I'd say three months not enough economy's not going to bounce back in three months after the coronavirus globally and so Do you get a kind of? Confirmation or rally and then we start to sink lower again, but if they go to year end I think that's probably more healthy in order to offset what is going to be extreme economic pain some growth levels in the case of the UK I was looking at yesterday It's going to be the worst growth that we've had in Britain coming up in the next quarter or so since the Great Depression So who you know demand really does Is going to be impacted so supply really drastically needs to be cut for a longer extended period of time if that makes sense So it's not just about the number for me. It's about the duration as to it's a two-fold thing Now what I did see if we just quickly go over to this comment here now and this was citing ING the Dutch Bank They said global oil cut seen falling short and crashing prices now Let me just go over this their head of commodity strategy says he reckons they're going to cobble together a Global agreement to curb six to seven million barrels per day So remember that's three million to four million short of what has been set as the benchmark of expectations Now he doesn't think that the US will be given a direct mandate to cut specific volume because of its antitrust laws Remember we covered this on Monday Antitrust laws the US state that US corporations cannot take part in any discussions about cutting crude oil But the country America will still contribute output declines as drillers whole activity because of low prices Remember the function here if prices remain particularly low Well, it's no longer operationally feasible for these oil drillers particularly these more smaller Medium-sized independent oil firms in America to be operational. It's just a loss-leaning business So naturally then the volume of oil production in America starts to decrease off these record high kind of 12 I'm half 13 million type levels back to probably about two million off that So what Trump will be trying to do here is that the natural forces then of a lower price Reducing American supply back by about two million could be then enough that he doesn't really need to take part in the deal The question mark of course is does Russia and Saudi agree that that in fact is enough because you're taking it for granted then that Trump is going to follow through as are the domestic oil firms in America What should be the natural course of play? But you know we're dealing with Trump here Perhaps they want something a little bit more committed and iron-clad for them to agree to do the factual cuts themselves So there's so many Risks permutations, you know the politics obviously so mixed and murky between these countries It means striking a deal is particularly difficult ING said they see Saudi cutting about three million Russia 1.6 million as we've heard and speculated last night other OPEC members in countries like Canada will contribute enough cuts to get it up to them That's six seven million marker now just going back to the chart here This is what crude looks like of course over the core or over the period of the last month or so If we get a cut of six seven million I'm gonna I'm gonna get some rectangles here and place place some I'm gonna be bold and I'm gonna put a couple of price targets out there I'd say if we get a cut of six seven million Agreed by the end of Friday. Let's say once we've seen the G20 minister speak as well I think because markets will be closed Depending on obviously what else gets said and developments of the corona virus would be an added variable, but let's say Hypothetically speaking cases in America in the UK getting much worse So how worse will be a key consideration? But six to seven million I'd say I'd be very bearish on on where oil will reopen when it comes to Well in the electronic trade in the US on Sunday night, but then when the UK come back in on Tuesday I'd be no surprise to see us back down in this lower quartile of price Which would be let's not forget if we go back to 20 bucks That's a that's a good 20 percent away from where we are at the moment at 20 percent depreciation of price Which is pretty huge. So even they cut I think open members will be very mindful of the fact that if they go to something Like six seven. What's the point? You know, it's a really difficult spot It's kind of like central bankers in the sense of you know as much as they don't want to listen to markets They kind of do because the market price almost forces their hand So I don't think that they will want it's either I mean worst case scenario Then they go what it's either 10 million or nothing if they do nothing Well, then I'm afraid that not only do we get down to that price point, but we see this type of price movement We head to that long-term level what we've talked about before Which is that 9-11 post low, which was down at 1670. I don't think that's off the cards Quite frankly if they do not strike a deal Now depending on how today plays out I mean today's kind of part one Albeit probably the more important one because it's Russia and Saudi and they would have already had these conversations with America So key levels I'd be looking at is kind of here I know it's a bit smaller put an X which is the highs that we had From yesterday before Europe came in and you can see you've had some other previous areas where the market has responded to that same price point Around 25 24 I'd then keep an eye on the actual low of the range from Tuesday and Wednesday Which was down here at 2368 and then the corresponding levels in the next one of significance coming down at 2170 On the upside. Let's say if they do start looking like they're going to deliver this 10 million I do think even though that's kind of in line with expectations I think you'll get a little bit of a relief rally and definitely I think we could squeeze up to 27 19 under those circumstances, which would be back to What Tuesday's highs before the breakdown that we had in price? Definitely if you're looking on the balance here from a market reaction point of view The risk is to a much larger move to the downside than it is to the upside The likelihood is much more tilted probability wise of not delivering than over delivering if that makes sense So hence the reason why my talk of targets is quite biased to downside Levels in that respect if they did deliver 15. Let's say well I think we punch even higher and we can get up up until these levels Which become a little bit more important to that kind of mid-march high that previous Third of April high and we start going up back up towards 30 bucks again But again, you can see how how messy this gets and one thing I can say from experiences look out for lots of rumors to Be hitting the tape as we go through the next 48 hours You're going to have to be all over Twitter and certainly if you've got a squawk like we use new squawk Then hopefully they're going to have your back and keep you covered on all of the events All right, let me run you through there in the last few pieces of news We'll look at the calendar in a second, but just so you're aware Jerome Powell Just about see his head at the bottom there this fella He's going to be hosted by the Brook Brookings Institute in Washington Powell's delivering prepared remarks at 10 a.m. Local time. That's going to be three o'clock in London So exactly when the OPEC meeting commences He'll then participate participate in a virtual question Q&A to discuss the feds moves last month and Interest rates and enact a wide array of emergency measures now, you know the minutes Came out last night and when I was I didn't watch them as they came out I came back on the computer a bit later and I was having a look and Kind of sign of a times of how irrelevant they were it's quite hard to find any information about it Without looking at the actual statement the minutes in itself So probably this is why the Fed have kind of created this staging post They want to give a little bit more of a detailed insight the Fed are very good at this like all central banks They want to be quite transparent with the market communicate. Let them know what they're thinking Just to alleviate any tensions there might be and so that the market feels confident with the current Policies that were in play so he is speaking later something to be aware of But when we look at the calendar of what's to come for for today, so just to Tie off. We have already had some uk data. Of course, that's moved now to the new time of 7 a.m Not 9 30 traditionally How has that performed? Well, these are February numbers So i'm not going to spend any time looking at them to be quite honest the industrial production manufacturing production they're all negative but They were pre the covid situation So not really that important and hence not much movement coming on the back of them But if go back to the calendar, you've got the esp minutes coming out Perhaps could be quite interesting if we're trading the euro dax bund that a bit 12 30 london time But then you've got initial jobless claims, of course and obviously this has been a bit of a A focal point in terms of really the reality hitting home about how devastating this is going to be to the jobs market In america because weekly jobless claims are seen hovering near these record highs remember last week We had a 6.65 million reading today's figure is expected at 5.25 million if we go back to the actual Range we've got a range on a low of 2.5 but check this out There is a high on the range on the street of 9.295 million So we could potentially see a figure In one week close to 10 million if we take the most pessimistic estimate out there Now, of course, this is what it looks like on the virus effect on us unemployment We've basically had job initial jobless claims go 3.3 6.6 If we get another kind of 5 plus reading that will take us to 15 million in only three weeks And some people have even said that states are appearing to struggle To process just the incredibly high volume Of of claims that are coming in so it could even be even higher than what we're seeing at the moment Which is why there might be a little bit of a pent up nature of what the risk is of seeing like an 8 9 million number That has been people who have been able to get into the system over the previous two weeks if that makes sense so, yeah I'd say this is becoming potentially less market moving than it was before because This is now the new norm as it as it as it has been given that we've seen it twice I guess it's if we get to the point where the number starts coming in at 9 million You know that does present a bit of a different ball game about how severe that second quarter downturn is going to be in america and Subsequently globally and that can be a trigger point as well Could weigh on equities for sure could weigh on oil as a side product to that and the one thing I would say with oil prices just to conclude the conversation from earlier is that Equities and oil if or if opec do not strike a deal and we do see Meaningful decline in oil prices. Well, that could act as then that could be the catalyst for that that bearish Kind of third phase bear market rally to initiate and then we start pulling down in equities If the jobless number comes in at 9 million the coronavirus cases then start to pick up again in like The plateaued areas of Italy and Spain but accelerate still in the uk And the us over easter that will set us up for quite a bearish kind of into the into the session the week today but also the reopening that we'll get on the the commencement of trade next week so That's it not going to go any further than that Hopefully that gives you what you need again opec and the jobless claim is probably the key things Then over the weekend. Just follow me on twitter. There's my handle I'll be you know keeping you abreast of all the main information you need to know I'll release my macro menu that I normally do on a sunday as per normal so look out for that Otherwise, I wish you a good and safe weekend wherever you are Take care and I'll speak to you next week. All right. Thanks very much guys