 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread? That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire comm where today We are getting set for week number four in the NFL by talking to Donnie Seymour You can find his work over at sportsbook review pub sports radio and of course right wager calm Donnie's gonna break down week four what we've seen through the first three weeks how he's handling things from a volume Perspective get you set for some of this week's biggest games. My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire comm I am joined here once again by a masked up Ed fang you can find his work over at the powering comm and Ed The the the Byron mask is back. What's going on? Well, it's the dormant mask Oh dormant, okay, but I but they need to change the laws in Michigan Jim Why is that so I was out at a sports bar and We were watching I've been basically heading out with some friends to catch the one o'clock games and see how a lot of stuff turns out and You know kind of gave up on the Rams plus two and a half By halftime because that wasn't going so well, but then you get towards the end of that game and they're like, oh Yeah, it's a completely different story here and then So the Rams go up looks like they're gonna win the game But Josh Allen gets the ball one more time and the Rams make the stop and then of course the ref throws penalty on the passing interference and I've learned Jim. The reason I have the mask on is that I've learned that you need to have a mask on in a sports bar towards The end of these games. I learned that week one when the Detroit Lions managed to blow it against the Chicago Bears But it didn't really matter because apparently I was shouting a lot of profanity because when I came out of my haze There are some people looking at me like So anyways despite the mask I was probably spewing some code spewing some germs out there and I don't know Can we get a swear word mask like is that a thing because I could use that when I also watch the bills for different reasons Because I've never been on Josh Allen and he keeps making me look very very stupid week after week Yeah, me too, but I think with the mask as long as you know, like I've kind of come to like the double protection So towards the end of the game. I'll have the mask on and I'll put my hands over my face too. Yeah So that might be the new policy Maybe that should be the new Michigan policy if you are in a sports bar and it's coming towards the end of a game Right mask plus hands. See I watch at home for this reason. I know I cannot control myself from a From a reaction perspective. So I just stay at home and we keep that bottled in I've watched a couple games like out like Over the past because you have to be at home for work stuff. So like to you know, take notes and stuff like that When I do go out, I can't I can't keep it bottled in so the ed fang law being recommended to the Michigan the Michigan Congress and we're trying to make this work understandable ed and honestly the the The anger justified to me because that was that was a pretty bad Bad call. Yeah, it's pretty bad. Yeah We're gonna go back through that and all of week number three in just one second But as a reminder bringing on Donnie Seymour for today You can find him on Twitter at right side VP You can also find his work at sports book review public sports radio, and of course right wager.com Donnie It's gonna preview week number four of the NFL season Donnie I think it's a pretty smart betting approach at least it's a different betting approach from a lot of guests We have because he likes to take the wait-and-see approach And I think that's a really interesting approach for 2020 We're talking to Donnie about what he's seen so far and what his comfort level is with diving in for week number four as a Reminder every episode of covering the spread is posted to Spotify Apple Podcast tune in radio radio calm wherever you get your podcast You can find us so make sure you're subscribed And if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well Potentially has some college football podcast coming down the pipe not too far along So make sure you're subscribed to get those as they go up in the not so distant future before we talk to Donnie For week four though we got to go back to last week when a toxin builds rams Of course and go back through our discussion with Teddy Savaransky to preview week three Covering the past Last week on covering the spread we had Teddy Savaransky on to preview week three follow him on Twitter at Teddy underscore covers Teddy wanted the over on the Seahawks at the Cowboys or Seahawks hosting the Cowboys It was a 55 and a half when we talked it did wind up going up to 57 And it still went over 69 total points between those two teams and Ed We've talked about the Seahawks before in this podcast But usually when we just talked about them It's because you know the defense wasn't as good as perception and we were annoyed that they wouldn't throw the football But now that they're on the football and when you do that with Russell Wilson shocker good things happen Yeah, it's amazing. You know, we've also seen an emergence of DK Metcalf You know making Stefan Gilmore look like a pretty average cornerback a couple weeks ago Yeah, and then making himself look kind of bad I'm not celebrating the touchdown before he's actually in the end zone. So I think you know, I think he's been You know in a player to watch this year. Yeah Yeah, it's been interesting with that defense. It's it's it's bad. Yeah Their offense has been so good in like the total went over by 12 points Even though Metcalf had that that fumble which gave the ball back to the Cowboys Which shows you good things are happening in Seattle for Chiefs Ravens Teddy was on the Ravens minus three It did close a minus three and a half So get a bit of value there But obviously the Chiefs played almost a perfect game and they won that one 34 to 20 The final one was you and Teddy had to head bills versus Rams in case you did not watch the game Here's how things played out Teddy had the bills minus two and a half You had the Rams plus the points and it did close it as the bills minus two So you got a half point there and very much an emotional roller coaster Like you said you had checked out because the bills were up 28 to three But the Rams scored 29 unanswered points and had a four-point lead which meant the bills needed a touchdown and They were driving the reason that the Rams had to lead to begin with is because Josh Allen took a terrible trick The strip sack then got called for unsportsmanlike conduct after the penalty and the Rams scored like couple plays later So that's then they needed to drive their driving Josh Allen gets called for a face mask penalty He has this weird lateral they have a pass falling complete, but then there is a weird was it defensive was it? Was it I forgot the actual call was because it wasn't passing interference, but I thought I was yeah, I but I was in a Yeah, I was in a haze by then that they actually called that I mean either way people were not happy I was not happy as a Jared Goff backer I it may be a little sad, but after that that penalty they did get the ball near the goal line They eventually scored hit the extra points to win it by three and cover. I think that the only More wild way this could have played out is if they had missed the extra point You'd cover because of that like honestly like you had the cam thing in week two where like if he goes one foot further You get the cover there. I think you've you've dissolved all your bad luck for 2020 So congrats to you on that. It's all it's all gone now Why thank you. Yeah, I may have I did tweet out like I didn't think rams plus two and a half was possible Like sometime early in the fourth quarter. Yep, which I Think I'd like delete that tweet, you know, no, no, no, you're all good I mean if we all went back and deleted tweets that didn't age well I my account would be bare that's for sure I was on the under for Patriots Raiders speaking of things that own age It wasn't 47 and a half and close at 47 it was off to a really good start just three points in the first quarter It was at 33 through the first three quarters But the two teams combined for 23 points in the fourth which pushed it to 56 So I'm two and two so far this year the two overs I've had it hit the two unders have not so That's frustrating but alas here. We are heading into week number four Which we'll do here with Donnie Seymour in just one second First betting on the NBA finals is great betting on the NBA finals risk-free is even better Fandal sportsbook is giving you a chance to bet on game one of the finals risk-free with their exclusive single-game parlays Simply place a three leg or more parlay for game one prior to tip-off to be eligible for the offer and follow along as the game unfolds If you don't win your bet Fandal will refund your bet up to ten dollars in site credit What do you have to lose for more details as the sportsbook. Fandal calm must be 21 years old Gambling problem call 1 800 gambler Let's bring in Donnie Seymour now find him on Twitter at right side VP and also check out his work at sportsbook review Pub sports radio and right wager.com We're gonna break down week four with Donnie and also take a look back at the previous three weeks and see what we've learned so far Covering the present Let's welcome Donnie Seymour into covering the spread to preview week four across the NFL Donnie It's been a while since we talked to you how have things been in a crazy past 12 months or so It's been fantastic. It's great to come on and talk football again You know as we head in the week four we see some interesting things coming on the horizon with finally some COVID tests Which we probably anticipated we're gonna creep into the NFL, but it's always great talking football We two guys are love coming on here some good professional talk. Let's have some fun Well, we hope we hope is professional That's to be determined Because we got to talk about the Eagles and like we're gonna let you be unprofessional there if you want to we got We got you know, you got the the Eagles stuff in the background So we're gonna get there We're gonna let you say whatever you want unhinged for up to three hours at three hours We might have to cut you off, but like until then you're all good What was the summer like for you with the uncertainty around COVID? Were you trying to pick up new sports or just kind of hanging back and doing research for the fall? No, we're hanging back like when it first went down We were all like college basketball mode trying to see what's gonna happen in March badness covering that and all the sudden it goes down you watch on your TV Jim and it's like Okay, maybe a week or two will be down and then we'll get back going again in a week turned into three weeks into four months And then all of a sudden we ramp up But we have waited for this moment where all these sports collide at once because I know we talk a lot of football But major league baseball 16 teams in the playoffs. It's a lot of fun now But boy, there were some dark days there Jim throughout those couple months We're saying our sports ever gonna get back to normal But at least we have some of that semblance back to normal But I did not pick up any table tennis was not captain that are doing any that Jim I am proud of you. I am proud of you for sure And I appreciate you're taking time from an eight game baseball play today to talk to us so we're gonna dive on in here and get you out to baseball and One thing that I thought was really interesting last year Donnie and when we were talking to you as you talked about how You like to take sort of a wait-and-see approach You want to see how things play out before you go really hard early on in the year What did that look like for you this year with all the unknowns entering the season? It was so hard because like on a typical year when I wait the two weeks because I always say I'm very public the first few weeks. I see what my eyes tell me We haven't seen anything yet out on the football field. That's gonna prove you right or wrong So when I jump in like boy, I'm really surprised by this and I always equate it back to taking a suicide pool I get knocked out Jim more times than any time week once and man, I just didn't see that come So just a few years ago, so you know what? Let's take that proactive approach sit back let the numbers settle in take a look at some game tapes So the eyes actually match the statistics, but looking at it from years past like sometimes we're worried about the lowering of The head rule coming in just a few years ago saying I really wonder how this is gonna be impacted It was big in the preseason came in the regular season didn't impact at all But this is one of the first times where I entered in the week one saying I honestly don't know what's gonna happen Who's gonna play at this point because when you take a look at training camps in the NFL It's not really so much that these guys are actually playing during the games But you're ramping up you might get a quarter in the first game preseason game two quarters in the second game Maybe two and a half quarters in the third game and you build up that tolerance heading in But now you saw not a lot of tackling going on and we're just gonna go right on the field and keep in mind also It's September early September. You're still seeing 85 degrees 95 degrees These guys aren't built to play a full four quarters yet And it's been a wild first two weeks of the season week three settled down a little bit So I'm ready to go but yes to your original point this year is a lot harder trying to get ready for the season because I Didn't have a lot of stuff to go off even the beat reporters weren't giving out a lot of information because they weren't seeing much Of practice and do you feel like now you got a pretty good grasp on things? I mean three weeks in the book usually you said it's about two weeks Are you feeling pretty comfortable now that we head into week four? I am and a lot of things are coming up because looking at some of the show notes that we were gonna go over Just looking you know how as advantageous was it going to be the home field advantage was always the big talk in the off-season Saying well How's that gonna impact because usually that's seventy five eighty thousand people screaming and now we're seeing some of these Elevated numbers in the totals which is a direct derivative of that because you know as well as I do you watch again In Kansas City you watch a game in Seattle you watch a game down in the dome or Monday night football with New Orleans The other team can't hear the snap count and now you're seeing it worked in where you can hear a pin drop going down and playing You know green Bay went up and down the field on the warlands How great was it for Aaron Rodgers to get under center with the play clock rolling down on a big third down and nobody's yelling at him So he can make the checkoffs right side left side Everybody's ready to go snap the football and get a proactive play in there And it's just wild to watch but I think that's really elevated those scoring levels early in the season gym Absolutely, yeah, we got to talk about the scoring levels a lot of points so far In the NFL through three weeks JJ Zacharyson came on and said this was a likelihood because the last time the NFL didn't ever preseason We saw a lot of points What has you've been your take on this and and have the markets corrected enough or not enough or what is your take? Yeah, I think the markets because I know you're a numbers guy in this I take a look more of a visual approach along with the numbers But if we're just looking down the numbers when you look and say how am I going to take this total here because 57s and 58s Everything has to go right We even saw it on Monday night football where you say how can this game stay under the total opens up at 52 If you had a congratulations on the over But if you got it at 55 55 and a half whatever closed that you ended up losing But it's amazing to see some of these numbers where we try to make our own formulas up early in the week Like what do you think this line should be then take a look at what the number opened up at and where it sits at The same approach there to the total and I'm seeing games after just the normal ones where you say, you know Arizona Carolina two teams that should score maybe last year we're looking at a 47 and a half of 48 and it's palatable But now you take a look at the lines now opened up at 51 now We're seeing 52 and a half and I'm an over guy I'm a team total over guy and also an over player And I look at these and take a step back where maybe the over compensation might lead me to taking more unders where I typically wouldn't go there Ed Example from the past week where you took an under just because the the line was just so I mean the total was so high No, it's a good point you bring up because this week more than the last two weeks as I'm seeing these numbers that are now elevated I thought some of the numbers were fair market value over the past two weeks even looking at that Sunday night football game Which I believe ended up with 67 points I thought that would go over but looking at some of like the Monday night football game this week You know 57 58 points and just seeing your normal Dallas Cleveland Dallas in Cleveland 55 and a half a couple years ago. What would that game be like 39 and a half? It's just wild where the yes the offenses have improved But we're just not seeing any of these stoppages from the defenses out here and also again No crowd noise no false starts on offense and I know you guys want to bring up a point about the penalty flags Which are down as well That's all big because how many times we watch a football game and the first thing you look for is the little yellow blinking light On the screen after somebody scores a touchdown. Whoo. Thank goodness. Nobody had a holding call there Yeah, Rob Pazzola had a full breakdown on Twitter that yesterday the which calls are being called We're often like defensive pass interference is up which aids offense holding calls are down on offense that aids offense too and rushing efficiency has been Really impressive speaking of rushing efficiency. Let's talk about the Eagles because miles Sanders rushing efficiency very good And usually we want to encourage teams to pass more than run I don't know if that's the recommendation for the Eagles right now. So Donnie What do you see in here? Can Carson Wentz correct course here or there's too many injuries where that's not possible at this point I just think it's too many injuries at this point And I want to bring up a player that played I best get about 20 years ago for the Houston Texans And that was David Carr when you're taking a look at a guy that didn't have a lot of offensive weapons to start his franchise He got shell shocked in the pocket by not being able to be protected and not be able to get the football out to any Playmakers if we fast forward to here to 2020 Carson Wentz to me was amazing last year 27 touchdown Interceptions and again at the end of the season in the game clenching game that he needed against the New York Giants His leading wide receivers Greg Ward and Zachards didn't even play in that football game And somehow they're able to win he get into the playoffs then he obviously gets injured Which you know, he typically does most times versus Seattle Seahawks But heading you can't do that too many years in a row because we're heading into play the San Francisco 49ers this week and I take a look and say well, maybe the Calvary is coming back It's getting worse Zachards is a great pass catching tight in he's not gonna make anybody miss But if he's open, he'll catch it and fall down after eight yards Dallas Goddard's gonna be out this weekend The one deep threat you have which it looks like Howie Roseman went into the all-season said I really need to pick up some speed on this Philadelphia Eagles offense Jaylen Ragers out five weeks to Shawn Jackson runs one route this season and he looks like he's gonna miss this game and Miss the entire football game last week versus the Cincinnati Bengals So when you lean on your weapons and say boy, I'm going up against an elite pass or playcaller in Kyle Shanahan I don't know what Doug Peterson can do here other than Carson Maybe run a little bit more which he did last week and picked up 65 yards in the ground But that's not gonna last in the NFL you try to get no hits on your quarterback As opposed to say hey go out there and run and make a few things happen Jim I just don't see it for the filled up the Eagles because again the Calvary isn't coming back to help Carson Wentz It seems like they get more injured every week Well, that's a tough part too because we can like talk about process like the process the Eagles seemed right because they got They got Joan Rager They had to Shawn Jackson me back Marquise Goodwin is a guy they added and then also John Hightower But now John Hightower is the only speed guy they have left out of those four dudes and that makes it tough So do you think this is just circumstances or is there something more fundamentally flawed within the team building here? I think it's fundamentally flawed with the team building because you're right I think the process was correct and even with the young kid out of Southern Miss Quaswakens He's actually on IR as well another speed guy So their thought process was correct, but how they're actually implementing it doesn't make much sense You're still waiting on now Sean Jeffrey to get back But again, he's not a speed guy. The one thing you need in the NFL is to open up everybody's options You watch the Kansas City Chiefs. Why is everybody wide open? Is Andy Reed a great play caller and Patrick Holmes a sensational quarterback? Yes But speed opens everything up. It's why Travis Kelsey is a dominant tight end to fill it up The Eagles right now don't have any of those pieces and again looks like to show on Jackson Look if he plays this week, he'll be on one leg And I'll probably get injured within two weeks and you're a long ways out from getting Jalen Rieger back on the field It's going to be a tough go because last year at least the one thing you could do is you know what? I'm gonna lean on this really good offensive line. They're all getting injured as well and Jason Peters It's like 45 years old playing left tackle and getting abused. It's so hard for me as an Eagles fan But I did get a 2017 Super Bowl trophy. I guess that's the only one I'm gonna get guys I really guess so. You've got it on display too. It picks you in the back. I do. Correct. Yes Well, hopefully better days are ahead. It's pretty interesting They do have the nonners this week. Nonners have their own injury problems as well So we will see what happens in that game. Let's move on to some of the other mashups We have Colts at Bears Colts are two and a half point favorite on the road total of 44 and a half Clearly the big story is out with Mitchell Trubisky in with Nick Foles Who helped me get that over last week against Atlanta. What do you see it in this game? It's a good point you bring up because I do want to bring up last week It's one of the few times us as gamblers figure like boy We hope maybe the backup quarterback gets in this football game I was sitting on a team total with the Bears over 21 and a half Yeah, they had 10 points in the first half due to a long Mitchell Trubisky run But in the second half he throws that rudimentary Interception and when Nick Foles came in the game like oh my goodness I'm gonna have a shot at this he played really well heading down the stretch So now we turn that over to this week and you ride the high right? Yes, Nick Foles is in It's gonna feel good at practice We finally got our guy in and if you're a gambler you look at last week's competent effort out of the offense from the Chicago Bears and you want to turn that moving forward to recalling goes down It doesn't seem like a big loss but that nice satellite back in open space that Nick Foles can use and dump down That's not gonna be there this week But also on a point to Indianapolis the team that opened the season where we had some Super Bowl aspirations or at least winning the vision Look like they were dashing. How could you lose to the Jacksonville Jaguars opening day killed a lot of suicide bets? But I thought they bounced back really well specifically with their defense because even in the opening game even though They lost 27-20 they only gave up 240 yards in that game And then we go back to Minnesota who had an offensive explosion last week against the Tennessee Titans They hold them the 175 and then the Jets to 260 yards on their three games I think the defense is playing well So Nick Foles going up and down the field on that Atlanta Falcons will be a little bit different this week But I got to tell you there's not a lot of explosiveness on that Colts offense But I'm trying to find a way here early in the week I want to take the Colts here if I can get that two two and a half range I think the Colts can go on the road and win this game by a field goal. Love the head coach and Frank I think the game plan will be right and maybe we're getting a little bit too high here on Nick Foles Let me see him in another game against a really good defense as opposed to what he saw last week against the Atlanta Falcons And I love this because this is all guys that were in Philadelphia not too long So you guys you know a ton about and any thoughts on the the total of 45 44 and a half It does look low here And the one thing like when you look at the Bears offense the one tough thing always had Mr. Trubisky obviously is a much better athlete than Nick Foles and maybe if he throw you know an arm strength is better But the one thing I just wanted to see out of the offense for the Chicago Bears is a simple pitch and catch The guys open six yards downfield. Can you hit them? But the one thing I love about Nick Foles is he's a great quarterback throwing a pillow if you ever see like you know a Wide receiver that says boy this ball is really easy to catch He's going to give us wide receivers like Alan Robinson is loving life right now every time He's open or at least man up with a guy one-on-one He's going to be able to make a play on a football because he's gonna put it in the right spot Even though I do think the Colts have played really good defense the Bears defense has given up a lot of yards here I and I said I trust Frank break in that offense to try to pinpoint some areas that they can get off after the Chicago Bears 42 in today's day and age if I get good weather in Chicago, I'm still gonna look to the over in this game That yeah, that's interesting. You just reminded me that Alan Robinson He had that touchdown last week on it on a pillow and they took it away Which I actually thought was killing the over in that game. Well, you got called back I know how to drop touchdown too. Yeah, exactly. So Set of games last week, especially And you've had some bad luck with stuff this year I think that you're allowed to have some good luck with that one for sure with holes coming in like with the other games You're allowed you used up your bad luck elsewhere. Let's move here to Buffalo at Las Vegas Still feels weird to say that's up the bills are three-point favorites 51 and a half as a total and Donnie Josh Allen, he looks like a different dude this year He's still doing like wild crazy laterals at times where you'd really wish he wouldn't he's getting face mask penalties Unsportsman like conduct. He's a wild man, but the highs have hit more often this year than in the past year So are you buying into this being the version of Josh Allen? We should expect going forward if this is what we get going forward It's gonna be amazing because you want to talk about you know Counterculture shock here between what you're used to with the Buffalo Bills offense and Josh Allen and their defense He wouldn't be able to wake up in 2020 be like yep This is exactly the reason why 2020 has been so crazy and often said it's absolutely explosive a guy throwing for a really good Percentage of or completing a really high percentage of his passes hitting some of those deep routes They finally get that wide receiver that's able to stretch the field and make big plays They've always had the speed guys But now you have a pedigree guy in digs and you're looking at a defense now that you say You know what they're usually locked down and getting back to those totals that we talk about how many times last year in the Past two years you saw the Buffalo Bills game 35 and a half 36 and a half 37 and a half every game now You're looking at offense at that explodes 404 yards versus the Jets 524 versus Miami 375 versus the Rams the first three games of The season with Buffalo's offense 35 points 31 points and 27 points. That's like a miracle You know he's looked the whole 16 game schedule in the past if they scored 30 points You like man, I'll take that you know once a season out of the Bills He's really progressed. I'm excited about this and I think they have a plus matchup on offense versus that Raiders defense Yeah, I mean when you look at the advanced numbers on Josh Allen usually the expected point stuff hates Josh Allen Really, he's number one football right now So I know he's faced the the the Jets and the Dolphins, but the Rams played pretty well so far this year That was the game that that drew me in quite a bit even though again He did the the the hero ball stuff which is annoying still really impressive any read on this game for you from a betting perspective Either the total or the the spread I like to over in this game I do because I think the Raiders going to be able to counter punch here because again taking a look at that Buffalo defense Which we're so used to them being a shut down defense But that might have been a product of saying coming in our game plan on offense is don't lose it because it wasn't a long time To go where you watching the Buffalo Bills in the playoffs last year and their best play was the quarterback sweep That's no longer the case, but you're taking a look even last week They get both of their starting linebackers back and the Rams are still able to go up and down the field now We're talking about a Shawn McVeigh offense That's running very well and efficiently right now one of the best play callers in the NFL But I think John Groen is going to be able to scratch at least into the 20-point range And if the Las Vegas Raiders can do that, I'm no doubt about it I think those bills can score into the mid 20s at least the high 20s and that's going to give you a good look at The over until somebody shuts down that bill's offense I love an athletic quarterback That's willing to take chances and make big plays and I think that's going to lend to an over in this situation as well Excellent, let's move on to New England at Kansas City Kansas City seven-point favorite coming off of a big big win on Monday night Where they just took care of business against Baltimore. We kind of expected a better game, but But it didn't didn't really happen that way we got a total of 54 Another sky-high total kind of surprising given how good New England's defense was last year They kind of don't look the same at all this year. What do you see in this game? It's a very interesting one because it's real scared and you just see Patrick Mahomes in that offense because even coming into the game last week I know if you were a public batter just a casual batter Your first inclination is wait a second guys. You're telling me I'm getting Patrick Mahomes You know Super Bowl MVP best player in the league getting three and a half points and me on the other side saying you know what? I'm working on a way to try to take Baltimore. I said they're gonna get real physical with them in this game You saw last week a team that got physical with them had to take them to overtime with a rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson Monday night football This is their spotlight. They're finally gonna beat the Kansas City Chiefs and boy was I wrong and you're looking at plays that Patrick Mahomes makes and I always went a key and right before the half with the McCall-Hartman touchdown That plays a play you get off the field Maybe get the football back and he stands on the 50 yard line on his back foot and throws a laser beam down field for a touchdown And I sit back and go who can actually stop that well The one defensive coordinator that might have a chance of stopping that would be Bill Belichick But the problem with me is not so much New England defense trying to slow down Kansas City It's the offense and what I'm gonna get for New England because you sort of saw a blue Saw a blueprint last week, which I thought was going to work You're gonna run the football against Kansas City Maybe slow the game down a little bit, but really be physical and say Mahomes We're gonna limit your damage, but we're still gonna eat up yards against the Kansas City defense I know taking look at New England. They want to run the football, but that's not really the recipe here And if you get into that hole again, which you saw Last week the Ravens couldn't get out of that deficit And I'm not so sure that New England can return fire if they're down 14-3 either here guys And I think the tough part is if David Andrews is healthy for this game It's that's a pretty big difference maker because I know the the Patriots scored like 36 or whatever was last week But yep the efficiency at a can Newton was not what we had seen previously and Andrews on IR He's not gonna play this game. So are you laying the points here at Kansas City or what's your read on this game? Yeah, it's almost one that you know because this because we're going over the game I'm not I'm not willing to lay the points But sometimes it's a choice of can I get the six and a half later in the week or can I get the seven and a half? And that might tip my hand same thing as I looked at that Sunday night football game between the Packers and the New Orleans Saints where if the game was three and a half I'm gonna go and take the points there with the green Bay if it was three I would have laid it with New Orleans. It's a tough game to decipher But I'm really not interested in taking unders with Kansas City at this point They're playing it's such in a hit the plane it's such an elite level It almost doesn't matter because even when we watch in the Super Bowl They're going up against an elite defense with with San Francisco for three and a half quarters I'm thinking I'm a genius and all of a sudden the fourth quarter a few plays here and there and everything blew up on me It just seems like that's what takes place with my homes if it's seven points I'm probably leaning honestly towards Kansas City in this game. All right Any other games you see with value based on the odds of fangirls sportsbook for week number four Yeah I was checking out fangirl before he came on the show and I was looking at this game all week because I know some Teams, you know still down you don't really know what you're gonna get out of the Detroit Lions But it's not the common denominator of the Detroit Lions and what I don't like about them It's New Orleans going on the road and being a favorite for over a field ball that I'm struggling with if you take a look Just specifically guys on the New Orleans offense. They can't push the football down the field It's a heavy dose of Alvin Kamara and until Michael Thomas is fully healthy. I don't trust that team. They can they win football games? Yes, champagne's a great coach You still have a Hall of Fame quarterback, but they don't have that explosive nature and now you're seeing Detroit get healthier On the offensive side of the ball their home So even if they're down in the fourth quarter Matthew Stafford's a very good fourth quarter comeback as a fourth quarter comeback shot I think there's a chance he can get through that back door Let's just say if they're down ten points in that one But it really comes down to what I'm getting out of New Orleans and that offense I just don't trust that team and some of these numbers that we're looking at from the New Orleans That was hey Drew Brees is still passing well if you look at the last two weeks He got 60 to 70 yards on that final drive when they're down double digits that really pads those stats Hey, Drew Brees is throwing for two hundred eighty two hundred ninety yards every week That's not really the case if you let your eyes watch that entire game I like to try getting the points here a little bit guys Well, it's also tough because you can't expect Alvin Kamara to break four tackles. Yes for a 60-yard touchdown a week Maybe you can maybe Alvin Kamara's is that good. I don't know maybe I'm wrong there But any other games you like on the board here? Oh, you're also looking Sometimes I look at a defense and what a defense can't do I'm watching the Dallas defense over the first couple weeks They can't stop anybody but that having said that the Cowboys look like they are steamrolling once again Like they were last year and haven't missed a beat on offense But if I'm looking at this game and I need a stop from one of these teams I'm actually trusting the Cleveland Browns a little bit more to get that stop could be a one-possession game I'm gonna lean on the points as long and we we've talked about this before on the show as long as Baker may feel doesn't Baker may feel hands the football makes smart decisions I think the Cleveland Browns can hang around in that football game maybe win it But I'll take those four and a half points And I think Baker's a tough eval so far this year because he had that game against Baltimore where you don't really expect any Non-mahomes quarterbacks to do well played since Natty can't get a good read there played Washington with a really good defensive front They had some injuries in that game, but like I haven't got I love Baker I have not gotten a good read on him so far this year which makes it tough, but you're right Like I mean Kevin Stefanski. I think it's trying to lower the number of times Baker can self-destruct which seems to be pretty smart Correct and I completely agree with you that spot if he gets a decent football game I think to be able to run and also when you take a look at the pass rush You have to get home against that press guy You have some pretty good pass rushers coming with Cleveland We'll see if Denzel Ward is healthy enough again to play cornerback this week to try to slow down that three-headed monster at Wide receiver should be a fun game to watch and again if you're a fantasy got 55 and a half Expecting some points in that football game sure as well. I hope Tyron Smith gets backs We can see Miles Garrett versus Tyron Smith. I would be fully on board for that That would be a lot of fun. That is Donnie Seymour makes you a follow my Twitter at right side VP and check out all this work At sportsbook review pub sports radio, and of course right wager.com Donnie. Thank you so much for swinging by We appreciate it. Good luck to you as you ramp up volume week for Fantastic looking forward to us guys Jim and always fun coming on the show fantastic stuff as usual. Take care Covering the future Big thank you once again to Donnie Seymour for swinging by and breaking down week number four and Ed The Drew Brees discussion is always tough because we've had this one for a couple years now I remember Whalecapper Yeah, our first podcast was talking about Drew Brees and his arm strength and like yeah You see it when he watched the game You see it and you see the lack of arm strength there like that taste and he'll throw like their D passes But like it still works and like it's always hard for me to reconcile those two things where what I see is Terrifying, but the numbers still say it's good. It's always hard for me to reconcile those two things right and I mean it kind of gets to You know the basic question about like how do you win football games, right? And like what what a lot of the metrics will say is that like, you know success rate is the most important thing that you move the ball but obviously you'd like to take a couple of deep shots and You know what happens when you can't and or when you when you really won't I know it can Defenses key on those short passes and we saw Jerry Alexander almost get a pick six in that game But you know defensive coordinators have had a couple years to do this and you know to press up on it You know, we haven't seen a lot Drew Brees's interception rates been great His bad ball rate has been great as well over the last three seasons. In fact a lot better than it was You know, I think the seasons before that he was much better looking at the last three seasons than looking at six last six seasons So Yeah, so anyways that's gonna lead directly into what I what I want to say for covering the future Okay, so you've got New Orleans against Detroit. What are you seeing in that one Ed? Yeah, for sure. I mean look, I like New Orleans in this game So I know they haven't looked good They got the opening week went over Tampa Bay and then they have losses to Las Vegas and Green Bay. Yes It's still weird saying Las Vegas But I think the jury's out about whether those are gonna be respectable losses by the end of the year But yeah, let's do a little bit of data about Drew Brees and throwing the football When you can look at a dot so average depth of target and that kind of gives you an idea about Unaveraged how often a guy is gonna throw down field 2018 his eight out was 7.1 yards 2019 it was 6.4 yards and You know, it was during that 2018 season that we actually had a conversation with will gap her He was he was concerned about it then Big drop to 4.5 yards through three weeks of 2020 and I don't know about you Jim But this is all I saw on Twitter during the game on Sunday night. Like I've never seen analytics So much in terms a dot never won Talking about Drew Brees But you know, like I don't think it matters. I still think their efficiency numbers are quite good You know, they're seventh when I look at passing success rate adjusted for who they've played They're sixth in yards per pass attempts after schedule adjustments and this is very similar to where they were last year It looks like they they are kind of on the same trajectory, which is remarkable given that they don't have Michael Thomas The thing that actually really worries me is is the defensive side of the ball They were fifth and adjusted success rate last season and a big reason why I thought they were Super Bowl contenders So far they're 26th Which is not good and they're 31st in passing success rate when I look at numbers all small sample size But I'm definitely keeping my eyes on Marshawn Latimer So if you remember the cornerback he was the NFL defensive player that defensive rookie of the year in 2017 Had a really robust 88 coverage grade from PFF Well that coverage grade dropped to 76 the next year and then 66 in 2019 and is 40 through three games of 2020 so far. So not a very good trend If you are hoping for New Orleans, so that's when something I'm keeping an eye on But we got to remember like they're playing Detroit and Detroit is not a good football team This is a football team that completely relies on quarterback Matthew Stafford Before he was injured last year. The Lions were pretty good on offense They were 12th when you looked at adjusting adjusted success rate On passing plays the 15th so far this season. So they really rely on his arm And he really asked that they have to because Matt Patricia has never had a respectable defense While he's been the head coach and this is kind of a surprise because he comes from the defensive side of the ball at 2018 they were 21st in the Justice Success Rate 2019-29th and they're 24th through three weeks so far this season So it you know, there's not a lot that they have to work with on defense and it makes matters worse like Cornerbacks Desmond Truffaut and Justin Coleman probably their two best corners both got hurt week one I Don't think their backups are gonna be able to stop New Orleans offense. I think New Orleans gets I think they get they get up early And you know, I mean maybe Detroit has a bad backdoor cover here But you know my model likes New Orleans by 6.4 points certainly suggest Laying the points here with the Saints and I think the one thing you alluded to that is always very interesting for me Is you mentioned that people are talking about breeds and the reason they're talking about him is because he's played back-to-back Island games games that are nationally televised by themselves and my fear with that is that Twitter tends to overreact to those games because they're nationally televised. Yeah, I know shock, right? But like I think a lot of the reason that there was such a negative sentiment around the Rams coming into 2020 Was because they had a lot of bad island games like that game against the Bears That was on a Sunday night football game where they didn't I think they scored like 17 or so points. They had the game against the Ravens where they lost like, you know, 90 to 3 or whatever it was It was it was absurd. They had a lot of bad island games. And so Ryan Rusillo the ringer calls it the meme portal and Jared golf was put in the meme portal We're basically like you can take a dump on Jared golf on Twitter and people will validate you with retweets with likes and stuff Like that's everyone does it. It's been the same thing the past two weeks with Drew Brees Now I think there is to a certain extent validity to that because we were talking with was it was a dr Bob was talking about Ariards being a thing that he factors in like Ariards do matter We want to have offense that could push the ball down the field that can have explosive plays You're right success rate is the more predictive in the stickier metric But you do want to have some like you said some plays down the field So we should value that so I get it to an extent, but a he doesn't have Michael Thomas B It's been two back-to-back island games where people are just shooting off jokes on Twitter about Drew Brees and I can see that having a compounding effect where you may be able to get New Orleans on On the downswing because of this discourse around Drew Brees now personally. I'm staying away I want no part of it because I don't actually like there there are the two sides of it where I can understand why people are Taking a dump on Drew Brees, but I can also understand why we overreact and overweight island games So I want to stay away because it's just like it's two things that really do Tug at me. It's it's I want teens that go down field But I also want to buy low on teens that are in that meme portal with you know back for instance Island games and it's just it's hard for me to decide which way I want to lean for this one and The meme portal is kind of particularly hilarious in this case because like you're completely ignoring how bad the defense has been Island games, right? Right? You're being dry Object, I mean they couldn't stop Las Vegas to save their lives, right? And it wasn't wasn't much better against against Aaron Rodgers. No, so Like Darren Waller tearing you up. Cool. He's great. That's fine Robert Tanya and Jay Sternberger doing work against you Slightly more concerning for that New Orleans defense. We'll see if they can bounce back this week But I think it should be an interesting game like I said, I want no part of it Ed has New Orleans minus four. I want to go back to a total for this week And it's actually game that Donnie alluded to there's a total I actually don't think is high enough and that's the Panthers and the Cardinals Which is 52 and a half in Fandals sportsbook that the reason I like the over here is this is a pace-up spot for the Panthers Which we haven't really seen yet this year They face the Raiders the Chargers and the Bucks so far the Raiders are 21st and pass rate above Expectation that's according to Mike Leone of establish the run calm the Chargers are 27th So to run heavy teams facing the Panthers the Bucks are in the top half of the league They have been more past heavy than not but the Cardinals are just a hair higher So this is the past heaviest team the Panthers have faced so far this year And that means there should be a plenty of plays in this game And given the Panthers defense and how bad they are. That's a very good thing They haven't really imploded yet Since since week one when they left 34 points to Derek Carr But in that Bucks game the Bucks scored 31 points despite not having Chris Godwin They dropped seven balls including one. I think that went off a dude's face mask Which would have been an easy touchdown which was not great the Chargers last week It was their second game with Justin Herbert starting So I don't have a ton of respect yet for the Panthers defense and I expect the Cardinals to put up points here But I think the Panthers should too Teddy Bridgewater has faced a pair of really tough defense The past two weeks with the Bucks and the Chargers But he's been roughly league average on a per-drop-back basis so far this year The Cardinals are not a team I'd expect to have a plus past defense for the full season and the Panthers get to stick at home This time the total in this game has gone up. It was 52 it open It's now 52 and a half but 87% of the money is on the over here So I'm not saying this is one where you wait around I think you'll look around see if you can see some 52s or 51 and a half's out there if you can find those Jump on them, but let's say you don't have multiple sports books Disposal for some reason all you can get is 52 and a half I would take that I would not be shocked if this game gets to 53 because I just think there are gonna be a lot of plays in this game I want to target games that have a lot of plays and bad defenses And that's exactly what we have here So I want the over on Cardinals versus Panthers at 52 and a half and any read for you on this game Or is it just kind of off the radar because it's not like the highest profile of matchups here Oh, no, I mean, I'm interested in any game with value I did post totals this week. I'm not Particularly confident about them just because of the way the the league has changed and totals are higher and one You know crucial element into that model is is previous totals that the market has put out which have clearly been low So most of my totals been low lower than I think they should be but this one is actually at 53 in your model Which I find interesting I have to look into that a little bit more Okay, all right, I'll take that if you could see Ed Fang stamp of approval. I'm not gonna complain I will certainly take that so hopefully get a lot of points Not just for betting but also for some daily fantasy line This is Kyler Murray I would not complain if there were a lot of points on Sunday That is all the time that we have for today Getting set for week number four. Thank you once again to Donnie Seymour makes you follow my Twitter at Rightside VP and check out all of his work at sportsbook review pub sports radio and of course right wager comm Ed what is cooking for you over at the power rank and on the football analytics show? Yeah, I've given away some of my best predictions on my free email newsletter check that out at the power rank calm I eventually I talked with Josh Hermsmeyer of 538 this week on the football What speaking of very arts, yeah Air yards and a dot and and and all those all those things that it'll be up by by the end of the week for sure Probably by the end of Wednesday. So, yeah, that's what's going on with me. Have you had Hermsmeyer on your show previously? Yeah, yeah, yeah really smart guy. I'm looking for you're in that conversations Make sure you check that out once it's up at the football analytics show check out Ed's work over at the power Inc.com and get that newsletter as well and follow Ed on Twitter at the power rank I am at Jim Sonnis J. I am s a n n e s once again our DFS main slave preview coming up tomorrow morning That is on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed also recording live on YouTube on the Fandall YouTube page at 10 8 a.m. Eastern so make sure you subscribe both those places and make sure check out covering the spread wherever you get your Podcasts again couch football coming back in the not-so-distant future So make sure you're subscribed to get those as they go up big Thank you to Calvin Theobald our video producer for the video side of things here today Thank you Cal as always and thank you to everyone for tuning in good luck to you in week number four We'll talk to you again next week. This has been covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network