 The following is a presentation of TFNN The TFNN Bull Bear training hour every training day live at 10 a.m. Eastern Call now toll free at 877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618 The TFNN Bull Bear training hour Now Tommy and Tommy O'Brien Good morning everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien joined this morning by our man Basil Chapman filling in for Tom Basil. Good morning Good morning to you. How are you? I'm doing great, man? We got quite a market to start off Wednesday trading So we have Chairman Powell speaking right now before the House Financial Services Committee his remarks becoming public about an hour and a Half ago you have the markets liking the fact that it seems like he is hinting at a rate cut coming down the line in July You have the Dow up 163 right now trading 26,946 S&Ps above 3,000 for the first time We get the cash actually under that level right now 2997 Nasdaq up 75 points at 82 16 and quite a market gold trading higher up to about 1410 right now this morning We have the yield on the 10-year pulling back a bit had reached 2.1% sitting right now between about 2.06 and 2.07 with all that going on. Let's start it off We'll jump over to our man Kevin Hinks from TD Ameritrade thinkorswim right after this program every day fast market They break down what's going on across all these markets and man I think they'll have something to talk about today Kevin Hinks. Good morning Tommy O'Brien, Basil Chapman. Thanks for having me out. How you guys doing? We're doing well You wanted two hours yesterday. What do you want today? Think about that all you needed to do To understand at 730 if Jerome Powell's statements were good for the market or poor for the market Look at the one-minute chart on just about everything right that came out at 730 E-minis just jumped everything just you know the dollar sold off gold jumped Bonds which were down pretty substantially in the third-year bond rallied pretty hard 10-year rallied hard So he pretty much set the tone But I just want everyone to be it understand everything looks really good right now and he's pretty much locked in even with a CPI number that's coming out Thursday He's pretty much locked in a quarter point rate cut for July 31st that being said, you know The expectations for CPI aren't very hot coming on Thursday It's unchanged with a 1.6 year over year number So it looks like he's setting us up for a quarter point rate cut and not only drove Paul guys Not only the comment he's about to make he's going on like you said Tommy live right now Raphael Bostic talked last night about letting the economy actually run hotter than 2% Esther George came in and said inflation unlikely to surge anytime soon So that and with the prepared comments that Jerome Powell Released at 730 this morning. It's all systems go here I mean it goes so far Kevin right the Morgan Stanley out there saying that they're gonna go for a 50 basis cut Which is pretty remarkable I'm swinging for the fences a bit on their prediction there But as I don't know why they would say that at their control Paul and James Bullard both came out last week Ten days ago almost now and said that's next to take that off the table and I believe that's accurate I believe the payroll number took that off the table. Go ahead Bevel. I Was just gonna say that's not their style in any case. They they like to make measured moves. Well, that's Yeah, it's outside of that one. We'll say but I mean it's your mark was in the only conversation I think is 25 or 50 and so I guess they just said why not we'll go with 50 Break something like this down to the real most simple Way both common denominator, but look at the Fed funds futures They didn't have a June hike. They don't have a half point Basis cut in them now go where the money's bet You want to check where the real interest rates are trading and the and and the Fed funds futures Go go to the forward slash ZQ and just watch that when that moves That's where the money's bet that'll tell you what's happening and it only got up to about 20% chance of a Quarter-point rate cut in June never was a reality I think July is pretty much all Jerome Powell has to do is go by that and that'll guide him the way that the market's Expecting him to go. I think it's very Basic and fundamental way to look at it. Yeah, it's pretty remarkable. I mean the reaction just like you said across the board I mean you had gold sitting down there at 13 95 BAM within the span of the those one-minute charts 1410 the heartbeat and rates pulling back I was surprised to see I was up early this morning the tenure had crept all the way back up to 2.1 And then that pulled back as well So I guess we'll see what happens to be interesting because the remarks come out But he's gonna take questions and answers as well. So it'll be interesting to see if anything gets said there That he does make some headlines sometimes as you were saying last night yesterday Kevin Go ahead I'm just gonna say there could be a bit of a short-term dichotomy here because the TBT looks like it wants to rally The bonds as far as I'm concerned have made at least a short-term top here So, um, you might also get that a little inflection and we'll see what happens Also, I think that the market might be bumping into some resistance levels. Yes, so we'll see this an important week There's no levels of Completely bad. So remember there's a saying in the trading community from pit traders called a blow-off top, right? Where all the news comes out everyone consumes and digest it and says members 2% on the 10 years gonna be a busy price 3000 on the on the on that on the S&P 500 shouldn't be a busy price That doesn't mean it won't go a little above there But you're gonna run into some selling up here some people Lighting their load. This market is pretty high and you know I I I agree completely with the theory that you got to be careful up here in terms of failed rally Yeah, I was just gonna joke that there's no levels above 3000 in the S&P. We're in new territory, man As of intraday at least and hitting that high What else do we have going on today Kevin? I know I was looking at Tesla's getting a pop today, of course with them releasing Kind of an internal memo to memo about new more cars coming down the line. Yeah, what else today? We're gonna cover a lot of the You know immediate things that are trading, but actually we get to finally start to talk about some earnings. It's coming We've got a bed bath and beyond after the bell that if you remember a quarter ago They had a big move after earnings and then Delta Airlines is coming out tomorrow morning That's another good one. So we're gonna cover we actually Head of the 15 16 17s when the banks are coming out and that's when earnings really start to kick in We've got a couple of good ones trickling out now that we're gonna deal with nice nice and those and we have Amazon Prime Day coming down the line 15th and 16th as well Amazon quite a run yesterday, man Remember every Friday on the show. I don't talk to you guys on Friday But every Friday our show is paying plus Friday, so we'll cover Amazon and Apple probably this coming Friday for sure a lot of News on Apple this week, so it'll justify some good coverage on Friday Amazon could be up $100 from your last Friday session Kevin When you guys are talking I mean that's it's it's sitting at 2009 right now. I'm pretty remarkable the run it's at Well, we look forward to the program folks 45 minutes from right here fast market Kevin Hanks the team think or swim And if you haven't checked it out go download the TD Ameritrade Network app You can check them out anytime Kevin. We look forward to the show and 45 minutes You as well man take care Thank you, Kevin folks stay tuned Basil not gonna be coming right back like Kevin said like we were talking about you have Jerome Powell he is speaking right now to the House Financial Services Committee We'll see if we get any headlines from that We also have crude oil inventories coming up at 1030. We'll take a look at those markets ahead of that number Stay tuned. We'll be right back The Taz profile scanner is the most revolutionary piece of trading software that you will ever try Wouldn't you like to approach the markets with confidence as you begin your trading day? 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I'm Tommy O'Brien joined by Basil Chapman this morning We got markets in positive territory Dow Jones up 150 right now You have S&P's positive by 17 Nasdaq positive by 64 Basil I just wanted to read through some of the quotes from Chairman Powell's remarks this morning just to kind of get some Context about what was what the market really is interpreting? So we have inflation has been running below the FOMC Symmetric 2% objective and cross currents such as trade tensions and concerns about growth global growth Have been weighing on economic activity and the outlook he said reiterating the central bank will act as appropriate. So he gets down There's a risk that weak inflation will be even more persistent than we currently anticipate Powell added furthering the bolster Further bolstering the case for a rate cut overall growth in the second quarter appears to have moderated Many FOMC participants saw the case for a somewhat more accommodative monetary policy has strengthened and To get down though to give some of the the good he had in there in terms of Powell No to the economy performed reasonably well in the first half of 2019 I don't know if you'd be saying that if you were about to cut rates by you know half a half a point Coming into the next meeting as in you know things are all right But we're a little bit worried about where we're going here and we're going to do what we need to do And the market kind of took that and they ran with it and and and that's where we find ourselves So this is a very if we've got a moment y'all Yes, I want to show you something so on the left side chart This is based on the Chapman methodology just let me quickly say what I look for is the most obvious low bar Merely can't eat successfully higher peak alphabetize them up a case on the way up lower case on the way down When you get to the fourth highest peak we label that peak D. That's where other things can happen. So look at this We're right. We're waiting him for subscribers. We went along June the 3rd after being short from the from the April top so we went along and we still remain long took a little bit off the other day But what I am looking at is we've been waiting for this leg D to put appear So that's exactly within the Chapman wave methodology, but look at this and you just made a very good point that Going to new are high means that you haven't got any overhead You don't know what the overhead resistance because they aren't levels of reference now What if you look at this little mini channel up here? I call it the Chapman wave inside repellent zone Look how many times it's gotten there and the price is being repelled and and I talk about cup formations Look at the big cup and a little cup like a cup and handle And now a little tiny cup and this particular methodology says if after this move in leg D If there isn't a stalling at this trend line resistance It needs to be a big push and that would be to 27,000 9 27,270 Somewhere around there that would just be a breakout and then that would be just open territory to the upside So we're at a very strong resistance. Wait a minute the same thing happened now in the weekly chart We've got this rising trend line. We've got a left side right side price time That you got a bunch of things saying that this leg e in the weekly chart to make D and stochastic Oh good, but this is where you need you need to see it break this resistance decisively. Oh, wait a minute We've got the same thing in the rising trend line of the Monthly chart and we've had nine months from the January High of 2018 and 26,000 16 to the peak F top of 26,000 951 In October very sharp pullback into in December to 21,700 Now we're in I'm calling this a leg C but wait a minute This is the ninth month and we're right in this resistance area. So that's why I think it's really important We're looking at you spoke about gold just you know the dollar had yeah once again I'm talking about a peak D. What did we do? We just went to leg D yesterday peak D pulling back dollars in this middle of a big range of Up and down between 98 to 90 95s it's right in the middle of the range and you've got gold kind of in the middle of the range But it is up right now. I've got it up eight pulling back for the intraday high So I think that the when we look at all these different key indexes key sectors I think we in for a choppy period. I said that about two weeks ago I was anticipating the second week of July would be choppy I think we're in for a choppy, but you don't have to break down I just think there's a kind of a reorganizing of thoughts and even if you look at I mentioned this to When we were talking to a Kevin look got peak D in the bonds in the continuous contract of the 30th Treasury Bond continuous contract Daily is a peak D and a potential leg F in the weekly. So I don't think it's all that cut and dried I think this is just normal conditions You've got to be looking at don't listen to the words look at the prices and the prices are saying, you know We can have a little bit of a continuation of this is kind of choppy sideways action And maybe other sectors can start to pick up where they were very weak Maybe like an Amazon like if we're talking about Amazon is doing very well almost close to its all-time high Quite a run and just even this week let alone the run that's had and I keep referencing it as in I believe in years past You know, they have quite a marketing opportunity Like we're talking about yesterday when they have these prime days to tout how big they are and the market usually reacts Well when they announce that they're selling more echo devices and they've ever sold that they're selling Is this a two-day? Two-day prime day somehow they turn that and I believe it's the 15th and 16th I believe that's a Monday and a Tuesday and they run at midnight to midnight. So that's this coming Monday and Tuesday And yet federal Express is way down and United Apostles is I don't understand it Do they have a lot of the unindependent drivers? Is that what it is? Amazon this is you're speaking of yes, I believe they are I believe they're building out all those Mercedes little vans I'm not sure the white vans. Yeah, I mean those are like I think those are contractors that they've But yeah, so they they I believe they announced that program in the last couple years, right? You can start a business you can start a delivery business will subsidize the beginning of it And I think that's kind of their way of building out their own infrastructure of having Because you don't want to be relying on one company two companies because Amazon is the company perhaps Jeff Bezos has been one of the great innovators of the 21st century I mean his name I would say for sure because they're more than an internet company I mean they are a process company in terms of how they they pioneered a fast delivery of internet items when you think about that You know, that's that's how that game changed getting an item in a day or two for no charge So we have oil coming up I just want to take a quick look at the contract quite a run that we've had coming off of yesterday at $58 you get the August contracts it in a 59 44 I just wanted to take a peek at maybe some of the options that are available in here because now I don't know this whenever these contracts move so far Basel and Nadex they reset these contracts and we might be away from where These provide because realistically you'd want about 49 50 To be a contract that you'd have upward and downward exposure from where you're paying very little Intrinsic value the tens of guns Are we looking at crude oil or what? Yes crude oil the August contract. We're sitting in for 59 45 And so 59 so what I say 49 excuse me 59 50 would be a price that would look for where you're right next to it We've just moved so much so I'd taken a peek at it You know you always have options in here that you'd be able to purchase But realistically these price points as in you'd have exposure either from $59 or 59 75 So you're just away from you know, we've gotten such a move in oil Pretty remarkable even 57 50 early yesterday. It's a big move. Yeah sitting at 59 50 and we'll get those inventories We'll see that reaction in the market when Basel I come back in three minutes folks Hi folks Tom O'Brien here if you'd like to get my daily newsletter market insights Then now is a great time to sign up for a 30-day free trial every morning by 9 30 I send out my morning letter to subscribers with market commentary on a variety of markets currencies and commodities to keep investors up-to-date On the day's trading action included in market insights as specific buy-and-sell recommendations for stocks ETFs and even options Which stops and price targets included for every trade in my newsletter If you'd like to try my newsletter risk free for 30 days Then head over to the front page of TFNN and you'll find market insights under trading newsletters I use my years of trading experience to bisect and dissect the market every morning and give my subscribers the most important information They need to know for the day ahead I even issue afternoon updates for my subscribers whenever warranted with important market action I'm always scouring the market for the next great trading opportunity sign up for your 30-day free trial to my daily newsletter Market insights day by visiting the front page of TFNN.com Go get them folks The path of least resistance is David White's daily trading newsletter And if you're looking for active trading ideas, then now's a perfect time for a 30-day free trial to this powerful daily trading advisory service David uses his years of trading experience to offer his subscribers his trading ideas each morning in his path of least resistance newsletter Using a combination of equity trades along with options David keeps his subscribers up-to-date with all pertinent market information with intraday afternoon updates when warranted Don't miss out on this great chance to get a 30-day free trial to David's daily newsletter The path of least resistance with no obligation to pay anything David has been delivering solid recommendations for his Subscribers recently and if you'd like to see the type of newsletter he delivers every morning Then visit the front page of TFNN and you'll find the path of least resistance under trading newsletters For all the details and to start your 30-day free trial today log on to TFNN.com now TFNN is excited about our new software charting program the art of timing the trade charts in Collaboration with Tom O'Brien and using his best-selling book the art of timing the trade your ultimate trading mastery system David White has programmed an outstanding piece of software that will complement any trader's methodology Using this first-of-its-kind program the art of timing the trade charts allows you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci Formation setups including Gartley's ABC's butterflies and much more the art of timing the trade charts is designed to help you when Scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days weeks or even months Searching to find and right now. 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I'm Tommy O'Brien joined by Basil Chapman this morning We got markets higher across the board SMB had peaked its head above 3,000 back under that level brief briefly jumping back to oil and we'll get the numbers as they come in Basil I'm still trying to pull them up But nonetheless you're getting an acceleration to higher prices in crude as we're now at 59 77 guessing we might have missed that a little bit to the downside in terms of the available supply in crude for Inventories in the market spiking a bit on those numbers as I look for them and maybe we'll get them Maybe they got them in the den Interested because 60.28 I was wondering if we go to 60.29 to make the D and then maybe pull back. Yeah. Hey, it could do it man I mean this is and yet API. I'm not even sure we can pull those up as well But it's been it's been nothing but upward action to the tune of almost $2 58 up to we just and it's pulling back a bit But you got crude 59 77 was the high. We're back right at 59 57 Okay So what else Basil I know how about we take a look at Tesla real quick if we could because Tesla as Kevin said those fang stocks Tesla sometimes a fan favorite up 2% And I found it pretty amusing that you are up 2% on basically an internal memo that just said we're going to build more cars And we're not going to tell you what how or why or what we're going to What we're full how we're going to do that in terms of details, which is really what they need to do But what are you seeing in Tesla in terms of the Chapman wave? So there are a couple of things going on with test. It made a monthly high of 289 Back in there was that was quite a monthly chart over there in the September of 2017 pullback very sharp to 240s. Yeah, then it ran up to 387.3 86 is that right 387 that must have been wrong surely 389. I knew there was something wrong with that figure That was a peak D all-time high way back in 2017 Yes, and then and then the most recent low was at 176.99 on June the 3rd So we've gotten that peak D that we always look for in the Chapman wave methodology in the daily And it's it's pulled back a little bit healthy 50 the 9 and the 14 period moving average So we're clustering together which should be good support. So it's got a bounce. I tell you something when I read that the CEO of a company is Pushing my crazy to get product out of the door My first impression is so what happens to the quality? So I don't know I can't really answer that other than I do know a couple of people with with Tesla's and they Absolutely love them their biggest thing is that if there's a problem they have to wait weeks a friend of mine Had got someone bumped him yet. It's three weeks and he's waiting for his part to be So but you know, they love the car And you know if you love something you prepare to put up with these little idiosyncrasies But if I look at this chart and I've been saying this for so long We didn't I mean Dave went out a fantastic position shorting it But I just didn't have the courage with my I said I would I would not be surprised if Tesla is really going down to the one 161 50 area when it got down to the 176 area and it's had a bit of a bounce I This is a real problem because there's now a lot of competition. Yes, but I do see people buying I mean round here every day. I just have for fun. I say I'm just going a couple of miles How many Tesla's will I see and there's at least three to five that I see every day. Yeah No, they're active, but I agree with everything you're saying in terms of and for a long time They were a company that just had a story and I say that in a good way as and it wasn't quite time to put up yet But now's the time to put up in terms of real details real numbers real deliveries and just for an internal memo That says get ready to build more cars. We can't go into details on how yet But we're gonna do it in light of who is saying it too in terms of Elon and his history with oh He's always a cheerleader and good for him. You know, he's right But I think the market probably should learn to be a little skeptical when the when the cheerleading has So few details that come look at the price Tommy and you've gone from the three the three eighties down to the 170s you have to say there is something going on that is not quite right and He's just these have been a genius. He produced. Yeah, just think of that You've got nothing all of a sudden you have to build get the money to build the most Incredibly big plants. I mean if you ever mean I remember back in Framingham. We used to have the General Motors Plant and I remember taking both my kids at different times through it And it was so exciting. You see nothing in the beginning and then you're right there to see the car It's the equipment the amount of money to the machinery to get it right any any pretty much did it Yeah, congratulations. I mean now. I think most people are looking at most financiers are now looking and saying What's the business plan? I think that's gonna be a lot of debt and they have a lot of competitors coming down the line And they've lost their tax credit in terms of you know users Yeah consumers it got cut in half and I think I got cut in half maybe again It's just going to keep getting whittled away as they sell more cars as the competition comes on. Yes. Yes and There's still I was just gonna say there's still a 16 billion dollar company though to keep in mind as in massive massive value there So they would have area to slide to the negative side still because they are Not pulling in the types of profits that you would want for a 16 billion dollar company, you know in terms of that needs to turn around at some point so Hopefully they they get in order and hopefully for everyone that works there and so forth because they are I like Elon You know, I like I like they have beautiful cars I checked them out when I decided to go for something else kind of for Well for a couple reasons number one The add-ons made a lot more expensive than you think I would have done that $35,000 give it to me Right, you know, but no then it was going to be 47 then it was going to be well It's 47, but then you have to you know, etc So they're dealing with some woes there jumping back to petroleum real quick basil the number that came in was a Draw of 9.5 million barrels and the estimate was only for a draw of about 3 million barrels I chuckle a little bit because oil shaking that off and actually now lower now There's a lot that goes into those numbers in terms of demand refineries unit utilization But nonetheless we saw a draw of 9.5 million barrels for the week The forecast was only draw three and you're sitting right now at 59 38 So actually under the price with almost a 10 Looking at chart formations remember we spoke about this rectangle formation You can say no rectangle formation a lot longer than your patients look at the gold gold is in the rectangle formation Look at the TLT. Let me get to that right now. There it is There's this very long rectangle. You popped out a few times of back in so that's the reason why I was saying to you I think that this is a kind of a choppy period It's kind of a just a breather off the fantastic move and I that's the way I'm looking at it So I wouldn't get too carried away about looking for a major sell-off But I do think we're gonna be choppy for a little while. Yeah, and especially if for a major sell-off Especially across equities, I don't think you're gonna see that while you continue to see Chairman Powell be very open to being Appropriate as he would call it You know as he makes the gasoline for this particular. Oh, maybe he needs electricity power Well, we'll see might have chanced at some electricity as you know It's always interesting when you can't imagine every question that he's gonna get especially at a time where Politics have come into him and even just even not even talking about the politics But just in terms of the questions that he could get really trying to push him to why is he gonna raise? Why is he not gonna raise and what comes into that decision? Should be interesting and that's today And most of it is enough to say we need to wait for the day to come yeah Yeah, I imagine so and he's gonna kind of reiterate what he said in his remarks already this morning But he's on front of the house today And I believe is in front of the Senate tomorrow and we get FOMC minutes at 2 o'clock today as well Which I didn't realize so that'll add to everything we have going on the Fed folks Baz and I'll be right back three minutes We got markets in positive territory on a somewhat fed day today If you're in the CD market and looking for a secure investment the Tiger first mortgage program may work for you The security for these first mortgages are building lots in the tax opportunities zone in st. 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That's 877-518-9190 If you haven't checked out the newsletters page of TFNN.com What are you waiting for all of the TFNN newsletters are informative up-to-date affordable and must have for every trader looking to gain a Competitive informational edge in today's markets TFNN newsletters cover every aspect of the markets to offer you the very latest in market news Plus new subscribers get to test drive our newsletters risk-free for 30 days From all aspects of the markets including stocks bonds metals commodities and tech There's a newsletter to fit your needs exclusively from TFNN stay informed each day you trade and get the competitive edge that will help you stay ahead of the game Visit our newsletters page by going to TFNN.com and click the newsletters button near the top of the page TFNN.com educating investors Biotech is booming but for how long whether you think the biotech bull has room to run or has run its course trade Labu or Labd Directions daily S&P biotech three times bull and bear ETFs Visit direction investments.com slash biotech today an investor should consider the investment objectives risks charges and expenses of the Direction chairs carefully before investing the prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about Direction chairs to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus Please contact Direction chairs at 866-476-7523 the prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is Subject to risk including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor four-side fund services LLC Don't forget you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to TFNN.com then hit watch Tiger TV That's TFNN.com then hit watch Tiger TV for the latest market information back folks I'm Tommy O'Brien joined by Basil Chapman this morning. We got markets up in positive territory Dow Jones up 118 right now S&P's positive by 13 Nasdaq positive by 51 Basil just amusingly were saying maybe you know politics and then power in front of Congress He's gonna get some questions, and I see the headline coming across CNBC Fed chief Powell says he would not resign if asked by President Trump So they're gonna hit him with a bunch of good questions, and I'm sure he saw that one coming That's an easy one in terms of getting prepared But speaking again prepared talking about currencies markets. Let's go over to our man Teddy keg stat from Forex dash trading dash unlock.com. We talked to Teddy about currencies What's going on the market every Wednesday at 40 past the hour Teddy kegs act. Good morning Good to see you guys good to see you as well man So what are we got a lot going on this week with the dollar pulling back a week a bit right now? Of course with Chairman Powell like we were just talking about In front of Congress today and tomorrow What are you looking at in terms of the currencies as we have kind of two days of Fed action? We got FOMC minutes today as well, and then we also have a Bond auction going on today from the government as well lots going on out there There is there is we have the numbers this week today tomorrow and Friday or Not too too much of a concern, but we do have the cpi and the ppi coming out Thursday and Friday Definitely, so I think that unless there's any really big skew away from expectations Those probably aren't going to cause much of a jump in the market, you know for the currencies or interest rates Sure, so But I think the Fed Minutes today is something to watch out for so We know that the the dovish stance of the Fed is in place As far as Powell testifying also in front of Congress I think you're going to start to have some questions about a potential currency war There's been rumblings by Trump to you know push the Fed a little bit and say hey We need to devalue the dollar like the other currencies happen by other countries in some fashion So that has come to the light over the past few days with him pushing it So I think that you're probably going to see some questions To Powell being put you know is it whether or not he's for that against that, you know I don't think that the short term sell-off right now in the dollar is because of any of those rumblings I think it's more of kind of just a corrective nature and you know pretty much I mean if you look at for instance the the us dollar yen or The us dollar swiss they've been trending for a while So it's kind of time for them to have a little bit of a short term correction dollar weakness Yeah, I was taking a look at the swiss. We talk about that. I know you like to follow that Can you walk us through that parody again for those that don't listen and what you look for because we have the swiss What's that right now just under parody like nine nine eight nine? I have it up here Yes, and actually it's that's interesting level to talk about especially right now because about a month ago The market had been rallied up to parody and it fallen below it And it looked like it wanted to actually hold and especially with the news that was in place the time It looked like there was a dollar rally going on Even though it was going against the other currencies the swiss it failed Now we've made it established a newer lower low on the daily chart And as of the past week and a half there's been a really nice rally up to about this 98 half to 99 set level This is where I think we're running out of gas parody would be And this is where the the currency war rumblings and what the fed will do is going to be very interesting over the next couple of days Tommy I think that if the dollar strength really prevails and is present in the market The bulls are going to take out these the recent highs They're going to reverse gears and they're going to make a play for parody Which is a psychological level for the market for a lot of traders But it's also a balancing point because the swiss is one of your most secure safest currencies out there It's always when the dollar's not flight to quality the swiss it You know when there's geophysical action going on, you know now the iranian thing has been kind of quiet for the past couple weeks Um, obviously that can flare up. I think that short term we have a couple especially today Today's signals are going to be in place for the euro the pound and for the yen Uh, if you look at the uh, like we just mentioned the swiss We have a short term sell signal if they settle about where they're at or lower today I think you're going to see the market break for the next couple sessions in the next week Which would mean it's the dollar's been riding its highs It's time for a little bit of a correction profit taking move Which would coincide with the news. I don't know if it's a direct correlation But I think it's the perfect storm to have a little bit of a correction And the same would occur with the euro u.s. Dollar if you look at the trade today It's like a balloon under water like it started out today just slightly positive and now it's encompassed the body of yesterday's trading the body of uh Monday's trading and it's also a also creeping up into friday's body, which it really had sold off pretty sharply So so that being said, I think that uh Are were those moves overdone and exacerbated perhaps? Um, are these just corrective, you know Moves for the short term perhaps But I think that the signals though that will be set today like for instance if the euro u.s. Dollar settles about where it's at Right now. That's a bullish engulfing pattern probably setting a trend for the next couple days couple sessions at least The same with the swiss and then we also had the u.s. Dollar yen, which is also Possibly setting up for a nice little slide as well and that could make sense just Fundamentally in terms of if that trend begins on paul's remarks And he carries that message through today and tomorrow and the market just is kind of digesting that same type of action Then it could hold true that you know that he's because he's going to be ever present today and tomorrow. I assume in the in the Um headlines with right prepared remarks and then question and answer that uh, we'll make headlines I'm sure as you know, I'm seeing them pop across my screen right now Right And I think that unless he says something that's actually where he's like going against it where he's for dollar strength Like outwardly saying I'm protectionist the dollar. I want to maintain dollar strength That would be the only thing that I would see would reverse gears off of these potential sell signals and buy signals today You know, um, and I don't think he's going to come out and say that I think that if anything he'll Say we still need things need to remain to be seen what's going to happen But we're going to maintain a double stance and not necessarily protective the dollar But probably not looking to devalue like you know, the president has been kind of hammering for the past couple days You know, yeah, so and that's also for our economy too Think about if we do have a short-term currency war not a long-term one But just a couple things to get things moving and get the dollar weakening short-term our exports Obviously do better. Yeah our services. So that's good for our economy in the short run Um, I don't think it's pre-emptive I think it's more of a if you can't come to terms with the tariffs, you know, it's a way of saying hey Um, if you can't make a decision and come to the table with us somewhere and find some middle ground We're going to do this and force your hand another way. Yeah No, it's it's right in the mix for sure Uh, and how about the pound if we could jump over because I got a chart up there the pound man talk about some volatility That's that's the one that's really tough. Tommy. I mean talk about trying to not catch a falling knife, right? Yeah, I mean this is just uh, I mean since march and april man 133 to now 125 And even just since um over the last month, right even since june 24th, but the grits do have their own problems So, oh, they do they do They do For sure now dollar strength if for instance, let's just say that dollar weakness rather comes into the market I don't know if that's going to change things for the pound You may see a slight let's say for instance that there is a dollar weakness that happens And we see a big rally in the euro gets back up to 114 115. Yeah say we see um, you know The the u.s. Dollar yen and the swiss side I don't know if the pound yeah That depends what's happening and and if boris is prime minister yet and everything going on, right? Teddy, I wish we had more time. Thanks so much, man We look forward to next week folks Dash trading dash unlocked.com check it out. We'll be right back You are or strive to be one of the best of the best at everything you do in life It's the most common trade that we tigers and tigers share If you're looking to become the best of the best when it comes to managing your money Let me teach you to do what most wealth managers tell you can't be done Which is how to time the markets I'm steve roads author of mastering probability And for the last 12 months timer digest has been tracking my newsletter signals Which have earned me the ranking as their number one market timer in the nation for the s and p 500 for the last 12 Six and three months timer digest also ranks me as the number one market timer for gold as well The fact is markets can be timed and I'll teach you the exact set of tools that I use that has transformed me into one of the Best at what I do sign up for mastering probability today By clicking on the newsletter tab on the homepage of tfn.com and get immediate access to workshops Where I take you step by step how to use an extraordinary set of tools as well as provide great market calls too Sign up today It's amazing to think that tom o'brien started his weekly gold report 17 years ago with the first issue published April 7th 2002 when gold was trading at under $300 per ounce gold peaked at more than $1,900 in 2011 and after spending many years consolidating at lower prices gold may be poised for its next big run tom o'brien publishes his weekly gold report every monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the xa u hui gdx the dollar bonds south african rand as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy sell recommendations As of april 1st of this year the gold report currently has eight active positions with an average Unrealized profit of almost 8 for each open trade new subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee So you have nothing to risk for all the details and to start your gold report subscription today Visit the front page of tfn.com. Don't let gold's next big run pass you by sign up today Since 1984 basil Chapman has been using the Chapman wave methodology to advise traders of his expert market opinion While originally hand drawing charts from the late 1970s into the 1980s Basil noticed that prices under most circumstances virtually always had a certain number of legs to the upside before declining sharply Later basil found that computer software which included the standard market technical indicators enhanced the degree of accuracy and calling price turns As well as market trend calls thus was born the Chapman wave sequence Using the Chapman wave methodology along with other indicators basil Chapman advises his subscribers of his expert market opinion Each market day with his opening call newsletter right now You can get a two week free trial to the opening call basil's daily trading newsletter by visiting the front page of tfnn.com Cancel at any time during that trial and pay absolutely nothing Get your two week free trial to basil's newsletter the opening call today by visiting tfnn.com This segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information Just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com Welcome back folks Tommy O'Brien basil Chapman and I'm seeing more headlines coming across the monitor basil Powell says the strong jobs report last Friday did not change the feds outlook So that kind of fits with what we talked about where he said things have been okay for the first half of 2019 But i'm worried about where we're going is kind of really what he's been focusing on And there's another aspect to this that's oh, I always find absolutely fascinating Sometimes do you I don't know if you remember maybe it was before Something was no you probably do and I'm just trying to think exactly which administration was sure But they kept talking about a higher dollar a higher dollar and a higher dollar and kept going lower and lower and lower So this is the same sort of thing that Um, the fed could say whatever they want But just on a shorter term basis when I did all my work and I sent it over to my subscribers over the weekend I said, you know what the short term yields look like they want to bounce a little bit They don't have to go very far, but it bounced nevertheless. And as I say if you look at the u.s This is the 30-year treasury bond Continuous contract pull back from a peak d doesn't have to pull back much But sometimes what's being said is not quite what's happening But I do think that yields the japonization of our yields. We spoke about it yesterday There's such competition for lower yields. They really what can they do? This is this is almost beyond them at this particular point. Yeah, one of them What is the swiss at right now? I think it might even be negative or right near it six some things Point to something. It's amazing. You know, you're talking about a powerhouse country that you know You want to talk about competition if they're if they're only at point six How we get to right or etc as the as that goes All right. Well folks, it should be an interesting day. We get those minutes at two o'clock We have Powell in front of congress right now basil. Thanks so much for filling in for tom We look forward to the show at noon, of course And of course, I'll be deep tom show it form looking for that's awesome We get triple dose of basil folks and check out the opening call great service right on the front page at tfn You get archive webinars basil has done as well basil. Thanks so much. Have a great day with Thank you. Stay tuned folks