 Okay, very good morning to everyone. It is Wednesday the 27th of November so everyone's doing well Going to talk about a few different things this morning going to talk about some Chinese economic data from overnight We're going to talk about the reason why equities keep punching up to fresh all-time highs Record again in terms of the S&P. It's continued to move higher in the Asia-Pacific session We've then got an update from Trump on the trade deal We've got a few polls that we can look at and a few thoughts there to potentially share with you In terms of going forward of what I think about the British pound over the coming weeks into the run-up to the election And then as per usual a hand over to Sam He can look over the charts from a technical perspective, but kicking things off Just having a look at the overall market sentiment and it is relatively quiet It's almost like we've just continued this grind as it were in equity index futures Just looking at the S&P 500 here so following on from the positive close on the Dow last night We finished up around 55 points or so and you can see here just as Europe's come in this morning The S&P 500 futures just touched fresh all-time highs again and looking at the Much longer term picture. I mean this is looking at the the kind of chart from here year to date in terms of the S&P And you can see I'm sure Sam will talk about this the Importantly we closed above on the daily candle that trend line going back from the May and July test And the one of which we tested as well Just around eight days or so ago and we've managing now to close above that and finding a bit of a flaw From the price action so far materializing today at around a similar level So again with all these lines on my chart here horizontal It's just the idea that I still don't see much in a way of reasoning of why we should have some sort of Sharp correction in equity markets despite the overall elevation or the nature of the the move becoming somewhat Exhausted you would imagine But even so like we had yesterday when we were looking at that spike overnight You remember that was when that positive Bloomberg article came overnight about the discussions that they were having were moving in the right direction It spiked faded came back down to what was a technically sound area on the day Which was close to its daily pivot and the previous support Following the previous day session, and it just continued to push higher So for the moment, I still think the same kind of strategy applies depending on how Aggressive you want to be with the amount of risk that you're taking but again It's kind of all of these areas here Whether you can see it's kind of a push consolidation push consolidation And so if we did get an opportunity on any further pullbacks, I'd probably be looking for the same thing again and a good areas here are the The morning low that we had because that acted as in a period of overnight Asia Pacific resistance before the eventual break that came during the kind of middle of the the Japanese session and then beyond that point then any further pullback would bring in to play the low of the Asian session and then the respective high late seen on Wall Street after some of that initial volatility for the close And then beyond that point down to around the daily pivot and you can see where it's active. There is a bit of a support point. So Yeah, the reasoning remains largely the same There's a couple things I just want to show you on this point That's probably helping this equity move and firstly is with China This is a headline on Bloomberg and it's basically talking about how domestically China is continuing to see significant Issues and China's economy slowing for a seventh month early indicators show So Bloomberg basically you have this this kind of economic indicator where they take in an Aggregation of different Financial markets and business measurements looking at trade sales manager sentiment factory prices and so on and it has this kind of Swing meter of how how it's looking and it is certainly Moving toward the negative side at the moment and then if we look at this graphic here This was some data that came out overnight. It was quite interesting It showed that profits at Chinese industrial firms fell the most on record in the month of October dropping about 9.9% from a year ago These falling prices indicating then that domestic demand continues to remain weak And as you can see the industrial profits nearly always sits above the producer price index and the fact that Industrial profits have have tanked so aggressively to where is in this last month's print Then you would think then that producer price index is also going to be continuing to move into this kind of deflation Period with the slowdown in manufacturing activity. We've seen evident in China now the one thing that I'd say though And it comes into that whole monetary policy play, but it's almost you could extrapolate that out into the political Negotiation going on with the US. I do think then the reason why we've been hearing a somewhat More Say a softer tone from the Chinese a little bit more looking to make a deal has been quite evident over the last Week and a half or so and predominantly I think it's based on the reasoning that Their economy is suffering and they do need to kind of nip this in the bud before things get even worse And that's not to say that they're not able or capable to step in whether fiscally on Monetarily in that respect to prop up their own economy, but of course just like with any other central bank in the Western developed world That's kind of the the measures of last resort and so cutting a deal certainly could help mitigate and offset a lot of the The current weakness that's being seen in their their economy. So it's almost like the worse it gets The more I think the consensus becomes that a deal is going to get done because it has to get done whether it's from a every day that passes a The kind of clock is counting down towards where Trump has got to manage this ahead of the election. So again Looking to get a deal done at some point But then with the Chinese as well with the economic stress starting to mount Again would be indicative of the deal being done and perhaps that's why the VIX is traded at these particularly low levels of late volatility is is diminished and equity markets continue to just you know Grind out these all-time record highs again. What is Trump saying? Well again on the trade front from the US perspective things remaining relatively positive The one thing he's kind of saying at the moment, but don't forget you've got it as I always say to put it into context He was speaking at a campaign rally yesterday And he basically was saying that look we're in the final stretch now to get a phase one deal done I'm just holding it up because I want the best deal possible for the Americans And we're playing catch-up because we've been taken advantage of for such a long period of time So, you know, this is the the usual status quo. I would say from the president. I don't find it particularly Unusual and so all things remain equal for the time being Just before I move on to the next story I have seen the DAX here just taking a bit of a aggressive move on a downside But I can't see any headlines that have come out or any tweets or anything but just looking at the way that that candles just Moved in the last minute. I'd say just a break and then some momentum Triggered on the break of the pivot level. You can see it came down Had a few minutes at that level and then we just had to be have an extended push from a downside So I'd say it's probably more technical flow related than it is anything fundamental in terms of catalyst on that DAX move Just going back then talking about the US and Trump one thing I always find distinctly Telling is whenever there's a trade deal About to be done. The one thing that seems to happen with the Chinese is this type of headline North Korea Their leader Kim Jong-un bolsters nuclear threat to the US as Trump talks still But the the main thing here is that North Korea has started test launching a new lineup of solid Fuel missiles which gives them basically more flexibility of the way of which they could maneuver their military Arms and also could then fire missiles more Basically in a more prompt fashion without then the the kind of alert for Western forces. So This doesn't really mean that you know, of course that North Korea gonna start aggressively Ramping up this type of activity But it almost feels like whenever a deal is about to be done, but the Chinese almost by Association, it seems like they lean on North Korea just to up the ante a touch to get a deal over the line You can call me a bit of a conspiracy theorist, but I think that's a pattern that's been quite distinct ever since This trade war has begun. So again, I don't see this as market moving It's just all fitting the regular narrative That we've been seeing but again supports the notion of getting a deal over the line. The other thing I want to talk about is Polls it's going to be a particularly important UK election poll coming out tonight at 10 p.m. This evening Essentially, there's going to be a latest you gov poll which uses this MRP kind of methodology the one of which then was the very Same methodology that correctly called for you gov the 2017 election where every other pollster was looking for a massive conservative majority You gov's MRP poll, which was pretty much unspoken of at the time It's essentially a slightly different approach using a much larger sample size than the regular standard polls akin to around 50,000 instead of 1,000 it also starts looking at different demographic groupings as well and extrapolates that out against different areas and kind of cross layers it to give it a more in-depth analysis But that's coming out tonight at 10 p.m. It's been commissioned by the Times newspaper But obviously there's going to be a lot of people looking at that and the way the reason why it's been so interesting is that the pound Obviously weakened and underperformed yesterday And this is because the most recent string of opinion polls that we've had have shown a narrowing in the Conservative lead so just to give you a bit of a flavor of what we've had the conservative party holds an 11-point lead Over the opposition Labour Party down one point Now as according to you gov yesterday for the Times and Sky news That marked the third poll in a row that was narrowing of the Tory lead Cantar poll earlier on Tuesday showed an 11-point lead down to seven while the ICM poll Monday showed a seven-point lead down three and this goes This is in stark contrast to the opinion poll which came out at the weekend Which had a 19-point lead for the Tories so in terms of the ICM one that's now down to seven and so a lot of this I think it is a little bit of a there's a number of things going on here actually and I did make a post a tweet on this, but I think I was a little bit more comprehensive of a post I made on LinkedIn Last night my wife again having a go at me going. What are you doing? It's 11 p.m Why are you looking and tweeting these things? And I was like I've got to Scott I've got a new a new thing. I'm looking at and this is my view and I think that the pound is gonna come under more pressure over the next Two weeks and my reasoning behind this is I think that the narrowing and polls will continue I am fully aware that Jeremy Corbyn pretty much did his best effort last night It would appear to try and throw me off track with his somewhat questionable handling of the Antisemitism in the Labour Party But a couple of points here I want to just go over and one is the Joe Swinson of their late the leader of the Liberal Democrat Party ever since the election was called at the end of October The Liberal Democrats popularity has just been falling away day after day And I'm not sure if you've seen any of the the televised debates as yet, but she hasn't really performed particularly well I think one of the main things with the Lib Dems was this move from a second referendum Which had been their stance for a number of years to then revoke Brexit and I think revoking Brexit Is it has backfired slightly? Because the idea that you know more than half of the country when you're looking at the people who did vote voted to leave I think revoking it is just too. It's just a step too far And I think she's losing a lot of support to the remain voters who are dis disengaged now and would prefer a confirmatory second referendum under the kind of dual options for Brexit that Labour are offering and so you're seeing as per the average poll of polls a movement back into the two established parties So Brexit party is falling away. Obviously, you've seen this deal cut between Nigel Farage and Boris so Boris continues to move ahead But Corbyn also continues to move ahead as that remain vote shifts back into to Labour Now the other thing that I was reading from a stats point of view I found particularly interesting yesterday was the fact that the Ability to enroll to register to vote ended last night and the data suggests that enrollment Comparative to the time of the election being called to the enrollment deadline finishing is up nearly 40% comparative to the 2017 election and of the 3.19 million people Extra that have registered to vote more than two million are under the age of 34 Now, you know, I won't need to go into the details because you know that the younger demographic tend to have a more left-leaning kind of political stance and Certainly on the Brexit issue Would be much more heavily in favor of a second referendum on the balance So this useful demographic I think is another favorable element for Labour and for Tories I do think that there's a credible risk that that We see a little bit of almost this Brexit fatigue as we go into the actual Last couple of weeks of campaigning what I mean by that is I think as I've said before So it's a good strategy to talk about Brexit because that is what you know This this election has been polarized by that singular issue But the point is is that Boris is you know when you watch Boris He's gonna have a television debate on I think sky news on Thursday It's gonna have another one on BBC on on Friday and it's just it's getting a little bit boring Just him not answering any question He circles it back to Brexit and he says oh, it's all about Brexit and it's just getting I think it's just starting to grate a little bit But the problem he has is there's still another two weeks or so to go And I think that that's gonna be quite a tough one because he has proven so far in my mind And I'm not putting any biases on this. I think of the appearances. He's made He's he's done okay But it's he certainly hasn't been like a resounding confidence of a guy who's going to secure a majority in that respect And so my net conclusion here is that I think that Markets have been a little bit overtly complacent about the likelihood of a Tory majority And I do think for those aforementioned reasons the polls are gonna narrow Which means that the pounds got to come lower and Fundamentally when I'm looking at the pound and the dollar I just think for these reasons that the sterling currency will weaken but on the same token I think the dollar will remain pretty Resolute in the current economic environment because the Fed are on hold now There is no more rate cuts, you know the December 11th meeting We're not priced for another rate cut or rate move in fact from the Fed until 12 months from now So the Fed are on hold US economic data is starting to somewhat stabilize That keeps a fairly neutral if anything positive dollar story with a trade deal getting done Well, then that's dollar positive going against these Increasing what I feel a fundamental negative for the pound So I've got a bit of a Directional bias of I think cable's got a little room to pull back as people start to price in the reality of You know, could we get a hung parliament again for example? So yeah, just a couple of thoughts thought I would share But the main point is is that you've got this you gov poll that is going to be particularly Followed by the market So you're probably likely to see some decent moves late evening Into the overnight session and consequently tomorrow morning will be talking about it because that that you gov MRP Poll was very accurate last time round However, I would like to stress that you gov themselves Have said given the complexities and size of the sample size of that pole It's very difficult and arduous and time-consuming to complete So therefore it does not capture or reflect late swings in opinion Now if you remember what I just said the opinion polls that were concluded from the field work at the end of last week Showed a massive conservative lead the latest opinion polls adding on a couple more days has shown a distinct shift Moving into almost a halving of that strength for the conservative Party and so what I potentially think could happen here is the MRP poll might show a Conservative majority market might react But then actually you get a bit of a move that reverses course and fades quite quickly Because of the idea that it doesn't capture or have the flexibility to capture This nearest swing and sentiment that we've seen so something to just bear in mind okay Final final article then or two. I just want to mention was this Whilst all this general election noise is going on There is still actually a Brexit to negotiate by the way And Michelle Barnier was talking the lead negotiator on behalf of Europe last night And he's got a piece in the FT talking about wanting to prioritize a UK trade deal post-Brexit So quite optimistic the point being here though is that if Boris does get a majority We managed to get his deal in principle kind of confirmed and ratified in Parliament to move into the transition phase The transition phase actually ends at the end of 2020 and the idea here is that really that's not enough time to get Necessary legislation in terms of the line-by-line tariffs related to a full conclusive trade deal done and so This is just talking about that in a bit more detail So something to be aware of and then the final thing was I wanted to mention was a Fed speaker We had late yesterday evening feds brain are who is kind of neutral slightly dovish But overall summary very much reiterated what the Fed chair Jerome Powell said At the beginning of the week she said that while downside risks remain the Fed has taken quote Significant action in response by lowering interest rates three times this year noting that it will take some time for the cuts to take their full effect and she said quote I will be watching the data carefully for signs of a material change to the outlook that could prompt me to reassess the appropriate path of policy so This is the really the Fed line And that's what is kind of supporting my my fundamental view about that dollar Which I described when talking about the dynamics for cable where at the moment if all things remain equal that the Fed are on hold and So that in itself with the deterioration in the fundamentals for the pound that I see over the coming two weeks I think that I think there's room for a bit of downside there I'll leave Sam to talk out or talk about the the levels perhaps not just on an intraday But from a medium-term perspective as well for the pound to supplement that view. All right Calendar wise finally Just so you're aware today is the final day really of trade our friends across the Atlantic because Markets are completely closed in in America tomorrow for Thanksgiving and then it's very unlikely that traders will come back to their desks They tend to book off Friday. It's an early close as well on various different markets on Friday To accommodate for that holiday. So today's really the final flourish for North American activity For the calendar then it's very quiet in the UK European morning. You've got US data You've got the second estimate of Q3 GDP out of the US. You've got durable goods You got the weekly jobless claims pulled forward a day For no to accommodate because of the holiday. You've got personal income spending You've got the oil infantry data. I'll pop the API is in the chat in a moment. So there's just a lot going on Throughout the session and then of course that important you've got polls coming out at 10 o'clock speakers wise ECB's Lane and The cost speaking later on this morning. All right, that's it I'm gonna hand you over to Sam and I wish you a good day Any questions feel free to leave a comment on the video and if you're not or have not already done So remember to like and subscribe to our channel for more updates in future. Thanks very much guys Hey, hi guys. Good morning start off with a couple of the currency pairs is just on the 60 minutes anyway, they're all at a decent point of support just below where we're trading so we're keeping an eye on it I know we're going into Thanksgiving tomorrow. So if it's gonna go you feel it has a possibility to do it today So we're looking here at the lows of that 14th and and also the lows from Day on Wednesday Monday Tuesday as well. It's been touched again today along with the s1 So we're keeping a watch on here of the euro just how it's trading around this this point And it's the same if we have a quick gut look over Aussie dollar you've got quite a lot of support just over the last Couple of days but also the 14th as well and you can see each time we've tried to come back down So then the last couple of days we've been met with some decent buying pressure So watching what happens around there if we were to get for example a big move below You could really sort of see an extended push down and the pound as well You can see well certainly over the last few days. It's got that level and then when we scroll back You've got the 12th 13th and that magic number 14 as well So for all those markets certainly watching to the downside there for the dollar pairs back to the euro And looking a bit more into a day you could see Really we're in a bit of a range If you call it up to the top of that R1 and and the highs that we had on the back end of Monday round 110 40 we're keeping a watch on that and then of course those levels to the downside As well as we were to push back up Probably worth seeing a bit of a trend line on from the high of the day just to Have a bit of a guide to where price could could go if it gets above there back towards the pivot is somewhere I'll be looking at but really You know considering The week as it is. I'll be looking at the R1 potential break of those lows and the trend line and towards the pivot as the main points of Potential entry shall we say for the euro areas to be aware of much the same for the pound in that From the highs of last night down to today. You've got a well-respected trend line that I would definitely have on for the pound there and If it was to get tested In the short term you're looking there at the the previous morning low That would be coming in so definitely keep a watch on that break above the trend Yeah, sure price could perhaps drift towards at the area last night, which comes coincides with the the pivot today Around 128 74 bit of resistance trade there as well above that would be looking towards 129 again Didn't quite get the retest of that area at any point yesterday But that would certainly be one to keep a watch on As well as the higher that we had back on the beginning of the week on the 25th around 315 129 20 Was also the breakdown area that we saw on Friday So those would be the key resistance points So he keeping an eye on Above where we're trading the support as mentioned really key level just below here You've also got key support from the 1213 from forward team So like the euro like the the Aussie keeping a watch on that area because if it is to go It could well be a further push to the downside gold a market That had a decent second half of the day It was very choppy in the first and we had a chance to try and confirm that break above the pivot It just couldn't do that couldn't get above this level that we had Marks up around was at 1465 They then broke through broke a trend line and then snapped back after a big Order must have gone through and then reversed all the way back up to wards Well the the high that we had from the previous day as well And we are drifting lower now So worth keeping a watch literally where we're trading now because there was a good area support late last night You've also got the pivot today. So keeping a watch on that as a line in the sand We tested it once twice on the 15 minute timeframe already. So another one would be less convinced that you it's gonna hold You probably want a bit more confirmation before looking to get along if that was to come back down again Not really got a trend from the the top But worth having that on as well And then with that push lower that we saw almost making it through to the load that we had on the the 12th of the month Understandably a good area of support Tested there as well. So for gold really looking at that pivot to be the key Line in the sand and also pay a bit of attention to around 1460 some decent price action They're over the last couple of days So we'd expect something similar and then worth having a look to the upsiders to see if we can respect that trend or not Having a look over at the S&P just Brian's higher and higher and higher So keeping a watch on that to see how long that could last Having a look as well on the daily chart. It's gonna remove the pivot there people starting to talk about the RSI divergence God knows why because we don't it doesn't work on the S&P when it goes higher But just worth pointing out because if it does If they do have a big fundamental headline people will say it's because of that, but it's not going to be So I'm gonna remove that my right click remove and it's not talk about that again Having a look on the the 60 minute then it's put the pivots on to see where we are trading In today and and worth having this this trend actually, which we've hit quite well We've almost getting up to 3150 So worth having this on here looking on the 60 minute from the higher than 19th to yesterday early morning And then to this high as well lowering that time frame down and I think it's still got to be a case of just looking to buy because This market is grinding and grinding and grinding higher If we have a look there around 31 41 looks to be a decent Enough point and then yes one today as well We had some decent price action around that area from yesterday around 31 33 34 give or take We are just getting squeezed from The the bottom so if you are looking for maybe that correlated move in Dax and Eurostock's to push lower A break of that trend could come into play But I think with this market pushing on and on it might just be worth favoring those moves to the upside oil yesterday relatively Choppy when it comes to look at it now and if we put it back on the 60 minute We're you know seems like if we whenever we try to get away from one range We're just coming into a new one and you can see over the last one two three including today for trading days It's pretty hard to decide which way this markets going to go there are one today is an important point because you've got the highest from the 21st and 22nd that I definitely have marked up as an overall zone $58 which was that key point previously that we're looking at. That's a bit messy as well But you still got to have it marked for the daily chart for sure and then to the downside be looking at That higher the 20th low the 25th around 57 32 Of course, there's going to be some other levels to be aware or aware of on the like those lower time frames S1 today looks pretty good You have to say as an area as a line in the sand that I'd be focusing on As well quick look over the decks trying to continue that push below the pivot Eurostock's not following Suit just yet so you can see there's reverse with more of that move So keeping an eye on the Dax if that is to push lower then the S&P could well break that trend line that we had on as well Dollar pairs all at interesting levels of support just below where we're trading So keep a watch on that if we are to see some dollar strength come through as there could be Bigger moves on the break of those levels as usual any questions, please do let us know I hope you'll have a great trading day