 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is doing okay. So let's get into the market. So last week, again, I'm trying to really, really hard. And I think a lot of people have or at least having my same thought process, we're trying to live life right now under the most difficult circumstances. I think this is probably one of the most difficult hardships that a lot of us have had to go through for a long period of time. And I keep on saying and keep on reiterating how really important it is to have a fresh mind, right? To have a fresh mind, kind of have a positive attitude kind of going forward. Again, it's very, very tough and we've covered this through a number of videos. It's very, very tough to trade. Again, in the hardest business you'll ever imagine being, it's impossible to trade with a clear head if you're constantly in a bad mood. So I try to look at everything in a glass half full scenario. And when you look at last week, there are some positives to take. Even though, again, we are all under, like I said, house arrest and all that stuff. And obviously I joke around by saying that, but that's true, right? We have to look at things from a very, very optimistic point of view. And if you look at last week, there's a lot of things that I did like both from the macro point of view from trading, from macro point of view and trading. And what I saw from the corona side. So again, the worst possible news over a million people. These are the stats over a million people or a million cases of the coronavirus worldwide. Now again, the people, I just don't understand why people turn around and say, well, it's only a million. Look at how many people are on the earth. When does that number become real? 5 million, 10 million, 20 million? Like when is that number? So there's still a million people. There's still ridiculous amounts of people that are dying. And again, I understand the person's going to come to the to the defense of, well, it's not the flu. Look at how many people die from the flu. Nobody's making a big deal of the flu. People are dying. Okay, I think that's the bottom line. If you're a human being, you have any type of compassion, you know, it's just way too many. Okay, just way too many. And I think that we have to do our job to kind of curb that number as much as possible. So even though over a million cases worldwide, ridiculous amounts of the United States, again, we're number one, baby. We're number one. We always have to be number one. So we're now the most number one nation affected by the coronavirus in the United States. We have New York City, New Jersey, top two, one and two, to our new tri-state area, baby. We're lit, right? We're lit. So the top two cases of the coronavirus spread, again, ridiculous amounts of death. Again, I'm from New Jersey. I lived in New York, Brooklyn for years. I grew up there. So I have a lot of friends who unfortunately are sick right now. They are just because again, nobody took this seriously. But again, what's done is done. Hopefully everybody gets better and hopefully everybody will overcome this nasty period in our lives. But here's the kind of glass half full where I'm looking at. So an article came out, I think it was yesterday from the New York Times. Okay. And it shows the trajectory of the coronavirus spread from country to country, right? And if you notice, and again, you could turn around and say, well, China, you know, they skew their numbers. Okay, whatever the case may be. But if you look at the curve, right? If you look at the where they were by getting new cases day to day, it obviously works for home confinement. I think we can see this. And again, you can make a case that again, China's numbers are exaggerated, whatever the case. Again, look at Italy from where they were to where they are now. I think I read somewhere else yesterday, three consecutive days of lower cases. Dets are still strong, but lower cases there. But again, the one common denominator, look where we are, right? Look where we are. Again, we're off our highs, but look where we are. And again, the correlation in the common denominator is, again, you still have to stay home. Once Italy figured this out and locked down the country, only they finally started seeing kind of a blow off top of exaggerated cases. And you could see the curve, right? You could see the significant curve in China. Look at us. We're parabolic, right? Parabolic, this is a parabolic move. All you guys who trade these low-float stocks, you kind of know what I'm talking about. These parabolic moves, right? So eventually, there has to be a blow off top, and the only way we can have a blow off top, you've got to stay home. You absolutely have to stay home. From the trading side, I kind of liked what I saw last week was, if you guys remember, Trump set the tone. Last week, he came out, I think it was over the weekend, and he came out and said that he expects the next two weeks of having the biggest surge, the toughest wave of the corona spread. Last week was week one. I don't know why this next two weeks was the most important, but okay, let's talk about it. So last week was week one, and the market opened down about 900 points. And we always talk about how the value in the market always is, when we get a gap down, right? It's always to the upside initially, and then we have to kind of reassess. So we got the initial move on Monday to the upside, and then fear overcame, right? Fear really took control of the reins and really drove the market aggressively lower Monday and then into Tuesday's session. Here's what I liked, right? If you look at the scoreboard, and again, I'm speaking with the most positive attitude, glass half full take on this. I understand, and again, when you'll see me where I'm going with this, you'll obviously say, well, Dan, why are you so positive? You think the market's going lower, which I do. But let's talk about at least last week. Again, we can't jump ahead this week and the week ahead, because again, we don't know what's going to happen overnight. Any fresh news, bad or good. So we're taking day by day. So if you look what happened from the initial Trump comments, right? And we had that big aggressive gap down. And I think it was like, we closed down a thousand and then we went down another, I think it was like four or five hundred the next day. What I liked what the market did was the market kind of stood its ground. It stood its ground and kind of went sideways, upward sideways, upward sideways, some pretty good action from, especially oil, oil rebounded 45% off its lows. So again, the numbers could be skewed, right? Just the way we talk about China skewing some of the debts, the numbers could be skewed because so many oils are represented, for example, in the Dow Jones. But again, we're talking about the Nasdaq composite, we're talking about members of the Q's. So what I like what happened for the next couple of days, we kind of went sideways, right? If you look at Friday's session, for example, down 300 points, 300 points now is like the new up or down 30, it's nothing. And if you look at the week, although we had a 2% decline in all the indexes, the S&P, the Dow and the Nasdaq 100, what I liked about it, there wasn't any really aggressive, crazy volatility, for the exception of Thursday's date. But this was actually on a good thing, right? We gave up our gains, okay? We gave up our gains, we went lower, shorts got trapped, and we closed near the highs, right? And now, we're kind of just sitting in Friday, we kind of sat in that channel, right? Kind of an inside day from Thursday's action. So again, you can make a case, and again, I'm going to make my case to the downside, but you can make a case that, okay, bulls did very, very well, 2%, really not a big deal. The volatility, again, this is the bullish case. The volatility kind of died down, especially on the scoreboard, and now we're kind of going sideways, right? You have a lot of cases, a lot of countries back on the way down as far as new cases, we're the only ones that, again, still parabolic. So again, things are looking pretty good. As much as you could possibly turn around and say, things are looking pretty good. Here's the bad part of it, right? And here's the logical part of it. And again, as I say every single video, I'm not a bull, I'm not a bear. Do I want a bull market? Absolutely. Do I need a bull market? Absolutely not. We want a bull market, because again, things are happier, the economy is happier, people have smiles on their faces. More people are probably going to be more successful in a bull market, because again, there's many more investors than there are traders. So everything to the bull market side is much better from the global macro case, okay? But again, we have to look at things from the realistic point of view. And here's how I'm looking at it, okay? I do believe that until, again, this is no reinvention of the wheel. I've been saying this for weeks now, okay? This is my, I'm over a month in self-quarantine, okay? So for me, life is starting to get normal, I'm developing routine. Am I running out of things to do, like by five, six o'clock? Okay, that's fine, but you know, you get dinner time, you watch some TV, blah, blah, blah, you go to sleep. I get that. A lot of people, unfortunately, are unemployed, right? They're sitting at home and they go and stir crazy. For us, especially for you guys who, you know, from trade from home, and a lot of you guys do, you know, what's the week for us? The week is, you know, we wake up in the morning, we trade, it's four o'clock, right? We get some coffee, we do our chart work, we have dinner. And for five days of the week, it's kind of nothing. So life for quote, unquote, the trader should be kind of going into kind of a stride, kind of a normalcy. So it's getting better and better every week and now I have a little bit of routine. So things aren't horrible. Mentally, I'm sharp, I'm not burning out because I'm trying to take off the last, you know, the last hour, hour and a half, every single day just to kind of give myself more of a mental break so I can be fresh for the morning. So my routine is kind of forming in there. From the technical side of the market, what I didn't like, okay? When the market went up 400 points on Thursday's session. If you guys remember Thursday's session, that's when the oilists had that massive move up. That's when Trump had that meeting with the oil companies. Beta didn't participate, okay? They did not. If you look at the charts, all, you know, weekly charts, for example, on Amazon, right? And this is Amazon's week, a gap down and kind of did nothing, lower highs for the remainder of the week. You look at Apple, right? Same thing. You look at Netflix, right? Same thing. You just went straight down kind of after that. You look at Facebook. You kind of get the point. We're starting to break down as well. Boeing had a week all over the place, right? It couldn't hold its gains. Beautiful pivot, by the way. We'll talk about that from Friday's session. It was about a $2.5 candle, 45 seconds, right? So we'll talk about that in a second. But Boeing obviously is going down, again, the whole airplane, no travel stuff, blah, blah, blah. So Beta never rallied, okay? Beta never rallied. Look at Alibaba as well. You could go through the whole list. So Beta didn't rally. So when you came into Friday's session, you kind of knew they were going to be the weakest ones. And, you know, I've been sell biased pretty much from Wednesday to Friday, okay? I thought the value for the last three days were to the downside, especially on Thursday's session when the oil's rallied up 400 points and then nothing rallied with it, okay? So you could kind of see how it was playing out into Friday's session. But here's kind of my case, what I think is going to happen into this weekend, into this weekend. And this is where I think, and this is where I think you really have to, you know, trade with common sense and not, you know, not trade with an opinion. So here's the bottom here. You can see a clear channel forming for the queues. Again, even if you don't trade Beta, if you're a small cap trader or you trade mid-caps or you trade fundamental, you know, oils or whatever your drug of choice is, whatever type of trader you are, investor, scalper, whatever it is, you trade the futures. Here's why Beta is important, okay? If you look at the most highly represented names in the hedge fund world, right? The hedge fund world, the mutual fund world, the pension fund world is Beta, right? Your Amazon's, your Apple's, your Facebook's, your Netflix's of the world, right? Your Microsoft, your Intel's. They represent, again, speculation money, okay? They represent growth. They represent optimism. So if you are a fund in a highly growth-oriented fund, you are probably not going to be represented by these stocks. When there is a strike, right, when there is an absolute global strike in buying these names, okay, it represents a sour mindset, a bearish sentiment into the overall economy because nobody wants to be, to have exposure to the highest, right, the highest risk reward names. Again, when you're thinking about protecting your capital and my father-in-law called my wife the other day and he goes, well, can you ask Danny where I should do my portfolio? And she turned them and she's like, he doesn't know anything. What the hell does he know? Obviously these are facts. So my point is when everybody is, has money allocated in the most defense type of environment, they're buying things that they know no matter what happens in the world and fund managers kind of placing their money, by no matter what happens in the world, you need these essential products. So they're buying the consumer cyclicals. Anybody who makes toothpaste, shampoo, mouthwash, wipes, right, Clorox wipes, Purell, sanitizer, these companies are going to do well, okay. Companies like, for example, like Apple, okay, and again, I love Apple, biggest fan of Apple. I have Apple products over the wazoo in my house. But the point is you need Clorox wipes, okay. You need hand sanitizer. You don't need the iPhone 36, okay. And that's kind of the point. So when you see these kind of companies, right, and these kind of companies are getting buyer strikes and you're seeing a bear fly being kind of formed for the next week or so, the longer these stocks can't rally and the longer that we are sitting on home confinement or house arrest, as I like to call it, okay. The longer these stocks have more tendencies to start breaking down. So if you look at last week, again, the bullish case is well, only 2% losses across the board. Again, check, check, check. The volatility went down. Check, check, check. The day that we could have really crapped out on the Trump headlines of, you know, brace yourself for the absolute two worst weeks, we didn't do so. Check, check, check. But the problem is they didn't go up, they didn't go up even, okay. So you have all this evidence and then you have the reaction. You have more evidence and you constantly have more of the same reaction. So going into this week, I'm sell biased, okay. I'm sell biased until the Qs reclaim this 190 area. Again, this is the 190 area into supply where they got rejected on Thursday, right. They had a big, big run last week. All the levels we talked about, big, beautiful run towards the top. And we discussed this for many, many of weeks that in any bearish scenario, always going to have tendencies of bullish action within those intervals. And now it's over, right. And now it's over. They got rejected. They're putting in a new channel here. So the upside right here is this 190 level reclaim and build on the Qs. And to the downside, guys, for all you guys, even if you don't trade the Qs or any of the members in the Qs for all you guys, just trade anything, Home Depot, Lowe's, Disney, anything. This represents speculation money. And if the Qs breach this 180, 86 and close and confirm the 10-day moving average, guys, I'm telling you, we are going to go to the Lowe's. And these are facts. Because again, if you believe in the theory that stocks trade from demand to demand, that's the whole PS60 theory, right. So again, if we start breaching this area, we have a lot of room to go all the way back down to this 166 level. And if you are trading on the option side, again, you might want to start entertaining maybe any close below this 180 level, right, 181, 180 level. You might start entertaining maybe the 165, 170 puts. Give yourself some time to let it play out. But that's kind of the reality. So until the bulls demonstrate, completely prove that they can start taking out levels and news is being negated and hopefully we'll get, again, more good news from the humanity point of view, right. That the deaths are shrinking. The new cases are shrinking. That quarantine works. And hopefully everybody just really stays at home and just really appreciate that these are hard data statistics that are showing us that, again, Italy was having a horrible run. And now, you know, three days in a row, they're starting to go lower and lower and lower. So again, guys, please stay at home. So from the technical point of view, again, going through this week, 190 to the upside on the cues, 180, 180 to the downside of the cues. And again, the upside is 197. The downside is 166. So again, no opinions, no bias, no expectations. Let's see how it plays out. So last week was solid. The week was solid. The week was solid. Friday was fine. It was fine. I traded Tesla really well this week. That's the one thing. I traded mostly Tesla this week. I traded on the way up. I traded on the way down. Boeing had some really outrageous ranges this week, especially to the downside. There was some good value. Again, I think the key was that, number one, you weren't getting those rapid-fire pivots, three every hour. It was literally you get a pivot and a lot of them kind of started forming after 10 o'clock. So you got a pivot hour and a half later. You got another pivot, maybe an hour later, you got another pivot. So you had to wait for them. That was the only downside of the week. It was much more of a spread-out week. But the good news is, subconsciously, what that's forming is good patient skills. If you're a new trader, especially two, three years in, and you've been suffering from the fear of missing out, the FOMO, this gave you no alternative was to wait. And again, only good things happen when you wait. When you think things out, when you are calculated, when you have a solid opinion and watch it play out, usually something is going to be okay. When you rush out like a chicken without a head and trade everything inside, again, if you're trading 10, 15 stocks in this type of environment of day, I really don't know what you're doing. And again, only you know what you're trying to accomplish. But I guarantee you, there's no way you're getting value of a 10, 15 stocks a day. There's no way. There's absolutely no way. So if you find yourself kind of listening to this broadcast right now and hear me say that, and you had a week that you completely churned yourself, burnt your account out, burnt your mental brain out, you kind of have to rethink of what your approach is and how sustainable your actions are. Because again, you can't find 10 ideas a day. They're just impossible. So you have to kind of really slow down and watch everything play out. That was the only drawback. But again, in the long run, as we talk about the long game, waiting for setups, waiting for confirmation channels to play out is going to benefit you and obviously help your long-term development. So let's talk about Friday's day. So initially I was looking at 531, 532 on Tesla. Needs to reclaim to test highs. So here was Tesla. So initially here was my thinking. So it gapped up here. Let's get this all out of the way. So it gapped up here and obviously 560 from last week was the highs. So they came out with their numbers. I think they beat their delivery numbers by 10,000. Again, can the numbers be skewed just because, again, raise your hand if you're even thinking about buying a car or you were thinking about buying a car last week or you're probably going to think about buying a car this week. Probably not. So take those numbers, and again, I'm not saying they weren't true. All I'm saying is take those numbers for like phase value, but with a little bit of an asterisk just because where we are right now. And I think the market spoke to that kind of a reaction to those numbers in the regular session. But here's kind of what I was looking at initially. This is what we talk about sneaky channels, right? It's not the high, obviously not the low. It's these candles right here. So the top of this channel here was 531, 531, right? So we needed to see, right? And there's another channel here, 531. So we had three candles. We had three candles of data. We always, people always ask me, do we need pre-market and after-market data? Absolutely. The more candles, the merrier, the more information we have, the better. This is giving us a clear path to the goal line. So why not have as many candles as possible? So these are all one-hourly candles. So 531, 531, 531. Because my thought process was, if it was going to take out 531, it was a shot is going to go to the pre- after-hours highs of 547 and ultimately last week's high of 560. That didn't happen. We'll get that obviously in a second. Netflix, you know, this was actually one of the only couple of names that I liked to the outside of 372 needs to build. Again, obviously it didn't happen. But again, I want to show you what my thinking was, right? So forget about all this, right? So here are the candles, right? Yeah, 370, 370.99. This is called 371. 370.90, this is called 371. So I knew it needed to build above this whole channel here. Again, this is what we talked about. Sneaky candles. This is what we talked about. The meat and potatoes of every single setup. And this is where you get the edge. You're not looking at the high. Everybody looks at the high. Everybody looks at the low. We are looking for the most part in a general area in between that we can take advantage that I call a sneaky pivot. So it needed to clear out the 72 and then it would have room all the way up to 84. But obviously again, it didn't do so. But again, you have to have an opinion. You have to have points of interest and you have to wait for confirmation. Obviously it didn't get there. So now I kind of knew once you started seeing Tesla starting to decline, Netflix starting to decline. We talked about five minutes ago how beta didn't participate. You kind of knew when you still needed confirmation but you kind of knew we were about to go lower and they started going one at a time. Roku last week's low was 8070 if it builds below can flush. Here was Roku. And again, it wasn't the biggest flush in the world but again took out 8070 and went down to 7930. Again, I still think the stock goes lower and if we have any type of selling I still believe the stock has a shot to kind of fill in this whole gap. But again, let's not put the cart in front of the horse. It was just, again, trade by trade one by one. I think I had the wrong symbol here. R-C-U-S 15, didn't go up a lot. R-C-U-S $15 break. And this is kind of where this is what I mean by when you trade random stocks you're going to have random results. I stick to beta if you did take this thing went 15 to 15 and a quarter. It's really not something that I want to participate in. USNA had a nice move. I know several of you guys took this move. Again, we talked about actually USNA from the previous video. USNA needs to build 63. Had a nice little pop. Again, for a random stock it had a really nice looking pop. Again, took out the 63. Went right to supply at 64.30. So again, I know for you guys who took that good job as well. Green to red, BYND. Green to red. No, this is not a pivot. 57 needs to build. I still like 57 going into this week on BYND, right? So it never took out the 57 level. So guys, similar to 57, if it starts building 57 you could get a $10 move to the downside. That's the lower Bollinger band that is being held there. So that didn't trigger CVX. 79 can give a quick cash well pop. You're watching CVX. I don't even know what it did. CVX, 79. Nope, never got above 79. Square. Square got hit pretty hard. Congratulations for all you guys who took the Square trade. 45 if it builds below Conflush. So here was Square, right? So here was Square. Here was the 45. Went all the way down to 42.30s. I know a lot of you guys caught that. ZM never made it up to that 27, 90, 28 area. This is going to be a very, very big area going forward. Again, more people staying at home. More people are going to be using the Zoom service. So this is a big area here, 128 for this week. Boeing, towards the end of the day, it ran up two points, I would say, in about 30 seconds, 45 seconds, right? 129 is supply and needs to build. Here was 129 on Boeing. So you could see here. Look what happened here. Look at the Boeing move here. So check this out. So here is the 29, right? So here is the pivot of 29, right? Here is the whole pivot of 29. 29, 29, 29. Again, this is sneaky pivots. These are not obviously the top of the channels, the bottom of the channels. These are sneaky pivots within these intervals. And it took out 29, right? It took out 29 and it exploded. I mean, it absolutely exploded. Went to 31.20s. This is about 40 seconds. This is my regular Twitter feed. I actually put this on for everybody. I think it's 129. I put it onto the private Twitter feed in the morning and I put 129 right before I logged off for everybody. Two points about 45 seconds. Nice move here. Let's see here. SHOP had a nasty downgrade, nasty downgrade, never confirmed 344. But I still like SHOP. I still like SHOP going into this week to the downside. I still like this 334 area. If it starts building 334, it could get down all the way to 307. So please set alerts for that. So here is the big one. Tesla, again, so again, as the old saying goes, whatever doesn't go up, must go down. So 491, if it builds below, can flush. Again, experience traders only. Not every single trade is for everybody. Not every single trade is for everybody. I was in Tesla twice. So here was Tesla. Here was the 491. Here was the 491 opening range. So here's the 491 opening range. And it took out 491 and the first candle was like a $9 candle and then confirmed that 82 and then went all the way down to 68. So great, great job. I know a lot of you guys did very, very well in that trade as well. Yeah, what a candle. Absolutely, what a candle. What a candle, nice move, blah, blah, blah. Apple, big buyer for next week for Apple. It didn't have a clean move with that second entry below 241.70. He's got it down to the 240s. There was a notable buyer. He put up $1.5 million premium bet. It was for the 235. It was for the 235 next week's weekly exploration. So again, big, big buyers to the downside on Apple. Envax, nice move on Envax. I took small cashflow on this thing, but Envax 1495.15 needs to build. This was one of very few names that actually popped. Here's the 15 break and it went all the way to 1569. I actually like it this week. If it opens up lower, watch for possible buy on the rising 60-minute support or a build of the 1570 area. So nice move. Definitely nice move on Envax. New lows. New lows. Envax Bingo. Slowest ever spiral to 478, but it got there. It definitely got there. Bingo a little bit of a champ. Yeah, here it is. Boeing 129 is supplying needs to build. Killer Spike 131. This was in seconds. Absolute seconds. And that's it. And that's it. So look, the most important part going into this week. Again, I have a sell bias. Again, once they build and reclaim 190 on the Qs, I won't. But as long as it keeps on building under the 190 supply, you have to be sell bias. They obviously will give you different opportunities on the long side with some vaccine names, some mask plays, some, you know, speculation names as well. But again, the key to the game right now is being very, very patient waiting for channels to confirm. Let them confirm with a second entry. Take cash flow and everything. If you get a bigger move, that's great. Keep a runner for those moves. If not, use break even as those stops. Guys, God bless everybody. I wish everybody nothing but health and happiness. And God's willing, I'll see you all tomorrow. Take care. Congratulations for putting in the time to take control of your trading. You're one step closer to owning your future and achieving the success you desire. Want daily trade ideas directly from Dan? 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