 Hello and welcome to the Monday market update with me, Dave Madden. Today's date is Monday the 11th of March 2019 and the time has just gone 11 1145 GMT, quarter the 12 p.m. Northern Time It's been a broadly speaking positive start to the European session. The FTSE 100 is doing quite well across the board It is the standoff performer in the European markets today strong demand for financials mining and energy stocks Meanwhile, Maine and Europe isn't doing so well. Eurozone equity markets started off And a positive and a positive move, but some of those have given up some of their gains at one point One of the major markets the IAXX was in negative territory. It's not back out of negative territory But it's certainly to say at the Eurozone equity markets are underperforming the FTSE 100 we had a broadly speaking a positive session in Asia overnight and They're broadly speaking between the Asian session and the what we've seen so far of the European session There's still a bit of uncertainty in relation to what's going on in trade The US China trade situation hasn't been fully resolved. It's been by the sounds of it They make a progress, but we haven't really heard any new details and even though We did see a positive session in Asia overnight There are still some concerns about global growth bearing in mind the sell-off we saw at the back end of last week the OECD downgraded growth forecast European central bank route Lowered its growth growth forecast for the Eurozone and we had a Interesting not for an payrolls on Friday. The headline number was terrible. It was well below expectations but put that one side there was a slight upward division to the previous strong number unemployment fell and average earnings about a month a month basis and on a year a year basis increased So putting aside the headline figure. It was a good report Some people are viewing the fact that the US only added 20,000 jobs in February as a sign The US economy is kind of actually a bit Showing signs of weakness because they believe it is the employers who are unconscious and they're not taking our new staff It could also be read as the US jobs market tightening whereby Employers are she finding it difficult to get a new staff offering their current wages and we did see unemployment fall We did see wages tick up So this could be a sign that you know what anybody is agent in the US who wants to be in the job is in a job and Employers are finding it difficult to attract new staff So I think a combination of lack of detail or in relation to the US China's Registration still some uncertainty and concern about global growth and People the jury is still out in relation to the to the non-farm payroll figure So I think that that there's those role factors that are playing into the European session today Obviously there was the the tragic news over the weekend The the crash their airplane crash In Ethiopia all the way over the weekend where there was no survivors on that particular plane the Boeing 737 That has had a major negative impact on Boeing's share price in pre-market trading already China and Indonesia have come out and stated that they're going to ground all flights that are That but by that predictor plane by Boeing as a possibility We just did that that move could be replicated across other countries and other airlines So what we're seeing here is a major set off in Boeing shares in the pre-market And that is impacting the Dow futures because Boeing has a disproportionately large Impact of the Dow Jones index whereas it relatively small in or smaller impact in the S&P 500 So we are seeing divergence between the two futures markets Take a look now start off by looking at what's going on on the footsie 100 and as we can see here The footsie has been bouncing back since December so Higher high higher low higher high the market essentially Has been kind of is often kind of the is still often at the lows of February and while we remain north of the lows of February at seven thousand and forty We could see the market push on higher We could be looking heading up towards seven thousand two hundred and should we go beyond that If you're looking at targeting the the February high of seven thousand two hundred and sixty two and you notice how that high there It says you coincides with this red line here two or they're moving average. So That could that could be a barrier For if should the market move on higher from here But if you do see the market break north of that barrier We could be looking at heading up towards seven thousand four hundred this year Psychological number and if you can have a wider upper trend that has been in place in a global market since late December continues That's that's an area. We could be looking out for on the downside If you do manage to take out the reason those seven thousand forty We could be looking heading back down towards seven thousand or this yellow line here the one already moving average Which comes to play at sixty nine eighty Take a look now of what's going on over in the German market So as I was saying towards the kind of middle or back in the last week We did see that of a and move to the downside in global electric markets and It just happens to coincide it with some Growth downgrades but also coincide with some big some big levels. So take a look at this area here eleven thousand six hundred and ninety We draw a trend line along he draws a line along here We can see of the market ran into that I guess you ran out of steam Early last week I started to nudge lower. So keep a line for this region here at eleven thousand six hundred and ninety The market has kind of shot it has acted a decent support in the past It has acted at resistance in November and it appears to be active resistance again Bear in mind global economic has been bouncing back since late December So it could be a case of the markets pullback before as another temp on it Or it might be the case of the markets are actually going to be looking to turn over if you can break north of it Eleven thousand six hundred ninety. Obviously keep an eye out for the dirty moving average this red line here Eleven thousand eight and seventeen and should we go beyond that we could be looking heading up towards the big cycle Engine number of twelve thousand If we draw a line between the highs of June 2018 and July and September we get this trend line along here And we could and if the market does manage to drift lower the previous trend line for an active resistance Might actually act as support in the near term. So if we do manage to drift lower from here I could be looking at heading back down towards the eleven thousand two hundred and twenty five region And if you go south of that this blue line here the fifthly moving average Just in just shy of eleven thousand two hundred that might act as support We can see on a few occasions in in in February and also in January The fifthly moving average act as support. So it makes it more likely that it will do so in the near term as I was saying there's a This is some diversion to the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 The Dow Jones like what we saw in the FTSE and like what we saw in the DAX Fail to get in early March fail to kind of press on higher and I Fresh multi-month highs we can see here in the last couple of the last year there at the first few days of our March Essentially it last week. We did see a bit of a move of the downside in the Dow Jones If you continue to drift a bit lower We could be looking at any back towards this red line here during the moving average which comes into play at twenty five thousand 148 and if you drop below that this trend line here, which is the trend line Going from the lows of February 2018 through March and April this trend line along here That comes to play this south of the journey moving average comes into play in around twenty five thousand It also coincides with you know, they get a big psychological number of twenty five thousand So the market does manage to drift lower from its current levels of around twenty five thousand 325 we could be looking heading back down towards the psychological important twenty five thousand But if the wider upper trend that has been in place Since late December continues and this is this just happens to be a bit of a bit of a bit of a pullback from that we could be looking at heading up back towards twenty six thousand And if you go beyond that we could be looking at tracking the October high of twenty six thousand two hundred and seventy eight Keep an eye on this trend line here because I've been talking about the S&P five hundred One minute after the time being the Dow Jones is above his trend line. So that's online might act as support one of the components of Dow theory is that the averages must confirm each other and if you draw a trend line between on the S&P 500 of the lows of February 2016 with the lows November 2016 we get this trend line along here and similar situation on the S&P 500 out of the Dow Jones whereby the market created a multi-month high and then has been drifting lower and the Dow and the S&P 500 now is pretty much sitting on its on its Trinity moving average which comes to play in around twenty seven two thousand seven hundred and fifty one But notice how we're above a trend line this this trend line So while the Dow and the S&P are both above their respective trend lines It makes it more likely that they're they're gonna get there that they're gonna continue to be in the upper trend It's both trade below their trend lines It makes it more likely that that that that previous trend line support might once again act as trend line resistance So if you do see a further drifted downside and the S&P support might be found from this area here in around 2710 or maybe even from the 2700 level itself a big psychological number If the market can manage to push on higher from here and I was back we could be looking at heading up towards the 2800 mark and When I talked about how they did the DAX How shied away from the port and level last week We saw similar situation with the S&P 500 where by this region here of 2817 820 2817 2820 This region acts at resistance in October November and December as you can see here in March Market got as high as 2819 before it started to drift lower So that area is potentially gonna act as a big area of resistance in the near term So if market can trade above it and hold above it That would like that could be further proof or further indication That the market is gonna continue in the the upper trend has been in since December But if it doesn't that area of 2819 or so is gonna is likely to act as continue as resistance If you can get above 2820, we could be looking at heading up towards this area here 2866 and if you go beyond that we could be looking heading up towards 2900 and beyond Take a look now. I was going on on the gold market So gold began to bounce back in mid-August Then that really since around kind of middle of November have we been in a nice upper trend I series of higher highs and higher lows or granted We did see a fairly sizable sell-off last week on the back of the dollar strength the dollar index last Last week in a three month high There's been a strong inverse relationship between the greenback and gold for the past year or so So the strength of the dollar drove go lower But we are seeing another seeing a bit of a bit of a pullback in the greenback We are seeing gold age higher and gold itself Is fairly upset at the mercy of the US dollar, but that the Federal Reserve don't appear to be hiking interest rates in the near term So likely we could seek a continuation of this upward trend that's called that goes beneath for a number of months So if you can hold above the recent lows last week's lows Which come into play and run the kind of 12 80 area is slightly We could see gold continue. It's wider upward trend and we could be looking at targeting We could be looking at a backup towards the psychological importance 1300 I should you go beyond that you're gonna be looking at it towards 1320 and the movie on that could be looking at takes up towards 1350 or 1366 an area not seen since April last year But if you do see a size of break below not only the recent lows I don't think at 1280 area, but also these lows here in around 1276 I could suggest that actually this we're gonna see further ground to be lost For gold and it could take us back down towards this yellow line here the one ready moving average which comes into play at 1267 Have we noticed how word really moving average managed to act as a support on a few occasions at the back end of last year So it makes it more likely that that's going to do so again in the near term Take a look now at the oil market So after it's bounced back from December The oil market has been largely range bound the last few weeks hasn't really moved a whole lot And I sent you to the upside on the oil market Even though the oil market has been essentially been nicely propped up by the water They were moving average this this yellow line here, which comes to play at 63 spot 59 If you could hold above that we could see the market push on higher and we could look at retesting the recent highs Which come into play in around 67 spot 75 and if you go beyond that We could be like you're targeting the mid-November high of 68 spot 36 and a movie on that could take us up to $7 a barrel Should we break below the one of the movie average? We could see support come into play from this blue line here the video movie average in that 62 spot 42 And I move below that it takes back down towards the psychology port and 60 bucks per barrel So that is Brent. It's a fairly similar signature for WTI By the market's been bounced bounce back from from From December, but the last few weeks has been relatively speaking range bound And once again, it's getting decent support from the water they move the average which comes to play at 54 spot 46 And if you hold above that we could be looking at retesting the recent highs In a 57 of spot 40 spot 44 and if you go beyond that We could be like you're targeting the mid-November high of in around kind of 58 58 10 and movie on that could take us up to the psychology portant of $60 a barrel Move to the downside My fans support from the fifth of the moving average this blue line here in a 53 spot 41 I should we go below that we could be like you handy back down towards the psychology portant 50 bucks per barrel Take a look now at Sterling So pound dollar has been broadly speaking in an upward trend since mid mid mid December We know we saw quite aggressive move to late January the market pulled back another multi-month high in February But it's pulled back and we're currently just pretty much on the kind of psychology port and one spot 30 mark Which also coincides with this red line here the 20 moving average and while you could probably could hold above that It's like we could see a further gains being made We could see the market retest the kind of 132 area or the recent high of kind of say in around the kind of one spot 33 60 year region If you do have a fairly decisive break below the kind of 130 mark We could be looking any back down towards the mid February lows of in around One spot 2775 or one spot 2770 area It's obviously gonna be a fairly important week in relation to Breasted votes which I'll be talking about the week ahead and the week ahead article can be found on our website If you go to cmcmarkets.com under news and analysis the bulk of the updates that we do Also myself another analyst get uploaded to this section of the website. So please check it on a daily basis Seven times a day. So looking at the week ahead later today on Monday. We have US retail sales Tomorrow we have UK GDP industrial and manufacturing production figures out also tomorrow from the US we have US CPI inflation figures Tomorrow, we are full-year figures from Domino's Pizza on Wednesday We have the spring statement and we also have the ad we have votes in relation to Brexit But that's absolutely gonna cause a lot of political news But the last few weeks and months the financial markets Stripping up political news and just focusing on the actual on the actual economic news, but We could see high volatility on the British pound this week in relation to both spring statements And also that the various votes that are going on in the House of Commons on Wednesday the over in the US we Become the company that the the consumer group Williams Symona have fourth quarter figures Fourth quarter results coming out on Thursday. We have industrial production and retail sales figures from China On Thursday, we have full-year figures from Sydney world here in the UK. And finally on Friday We have full-year figures from restaurant group This last thing before I go if you have any comments to me on this video or any of the other videos We've made here at CMC markets. Please feel free to leave review on the reviews and that's all for me this week Thank you very much