 A very good morning to you. My name is Anthony Chung. I'm the head of market analysis here at Ampli trading It's just gone 7 a.m. Now on Tuesday the 5th of January. So just taking a look around the markets at the UK European Open and Overall, it's fairly quiet in terms of cross asset class movement We had a lower close of course on Wall Street after some selling pressure that came in after the open on the nizy But overnight in the Asia-Pacific session. It's been relatively quiet So the cash close saw the S&P finished down around one and a half percent same in the NASDAQ and the Dow was down About one and a quarter percent Otherwise Asian equities a little bit mixed Perhaps one of the outperformers was in Hong Kong But of a U-turn from yesterday after the nizy said they no longer plan to delist China's three big Telecommunication companies which did weigh on their shares in the prior session But getting down to the real stories in focus this morning And if you're basically UK at least I'm sure you would know by now We're going to be heading into lockdown Three after Boris Johnson gave his speech last night He imposed a third coronavirus lockdown across England shutting schools and ordering the public to stay at home amid warnings That without further action there could be material risk of the NHS in several areas being overwhelmed over the next 21 days as of yesterday There were just over twenty six and a half thousand patients in hospital with COVID-19 to give that a bit of context That's about a 30% increase in a week The full emergency lockdown is going to start immediately and the first review of it will come in the week beginning Feb 15th with any changes coming into force when half-term ends from Feb 22nd So you're looking at this lockdown at least to be enforced until really the end of February Looking at the market's reaction to this I mean there really hasn't been one in regards to the sterling currency and probably the FX market has been One to look at as a barometer of sentiment with these types of things But probably that in turn is due to the fact that I don't think it's wholly surprising What the government have done if anything what perhaps is surprising is about the speed of which they've acted here Which again Boris Johnson has been met with a variety of different criticisms over the handling of this at this point in time So overall sterling impact has been fairly limited Obviously going into a more onerous lockdown has implications for the economy for sure So definitely there are economic impacts of this but as far as the interest rate sentiment It's been fairly benign at this point in time Having a look then at vaccines because there was a very interesting article about the vaccine and its manufacturing and distribution The reason why I think this is worthwhile talking about is because if you did listen to Boris Johnson's speech last night He gave a bit of a different tone I thought to what he delivered in the spring in March Where he was very adamant and clear about people must stay at home He was much more talking in an optimistic way I thought last night when he was talking about the fact that the vaccine is here And kind of light at the end of the tunnel because the vaccine they want to accelerate the rollout program and so on However I think there's a significant headwind that I think as what we've seen from various different government officials From the US administration woefully falling short of their target that they had of 20 million vaccinations to be implemented They're only at around I think four and a half at the moment And then similarly in England it's been a fairly slow pickup so far So Johnson announced the target to give shots to 13.9 million people at the highest risk from the disease by mid-February So hence the reason why then that ties in with that mid-Feb kind of end of half term timeline for the length of this lockdown That's when he's hoping that they've given shots to nearly 14 million of the most vulnerable people Once they have then been vaccinated the restrictions then can be eased is what he said Now according to an article in the FT last night I thought it's particularly interesting because they said that red tape And a lack of backup stocks are affecting the rollout of the UK's mass COVID-19 vaccination program according to people familiar with the process Now to go with some of the numbers here more than four million doses of the BioNTech Pfizer vaccine were delivered to the UK Before the end of last year according to one person with the FT The only thing is that government official figures show only about one million people have been vaccinated by the turn of the year So pretty similar to the conversations I was having on the briefings at the end of 2020 Which was looking at the amount of the Pfizer BioNTech drug that had been distributed to various different states in America But the very small take up that had seen on an average at that point a few weeks ago was only around 24% Had actually been issued at that point in terms of actual vaccinations received Now if we look at the UK only around 530,000 doses of the Oxford vaccine were available as of yesterday And that is far short of what the government was saying just a few weeks ago which was a commitment of four million Now one person familiar with the manufacturing process of the Oxford vaccine was very clear to point out that having been developed And brought to market with this warp speed of what would normally have taken several years Has meant that there's been no time to build up buffer stocks which is something which would typically happen With a vaccine which would take many years obviously to come to market Separately, Astra has said that it would put only a proportion of vaccine into vials before receiving regulatory approval Which only came of course very recently So a number of things here although definitely the Astra vaccine is seen as a bit of a game changer We've discussed this before rightly so I think it has the ability to really accelerate the overall roll out program Significantly on a global level However getting to that point I think is a slightly different question And just given the intensification of COVID rates The problem of the fact that infrastructure from an ICU basis is getting close to capacity levels In the case of the UK potentially in the next 21 days if things got worse than in the US Very much so as case numbers continue to rise as well I think that there's something to be aware of here in the medium term which is at the moment Markets seemingly seem to be content at least for now with the idea that the vaccine is coming One thing that I'm watching here of the coming weeks is actually these numbers and how quickly they're actually rolling this out Because I do believe that it's going to be a lot slower than current expectations Definitely slower than government officials are saying I think that they have a slightly different agenda They obviously need to put a positive spin to improve the optics of their dealings with this matter I just think that from a manufacturing perspective Although Astra definitely given the volume of government contracts will be a big one for 2021 for sure I think that this idea then of a mid-feb having 14 million people vaccinating the UK I think won't be met And then at some point as the data starts to fit that if that is the case I think it could then start to be an influencing factor then for people's idea about how that's going to affect the economy And therefore I saw yesterday people bringing forward their expectations about the Bank of England rate cut perhaps happening In the late summer and so on and so forth and this will need to be reflected in market prices So just a bit of a take on that at the moment What is the COVID situation in the US? Well daily cases in the US jumped at record of nearly 300,000 following the New Year holiday And an easier to spread variant could definitely intensify that surge And if you look at those numbers after we had the kind of Thanksgiving Increased numbers of cases of coronavirus in the US did actually start to drop off those record high levels However if you throw in the kind of double hit of Christmas and New Year We are expecting with then the added kind of accelerator of the new variant of the virus These numbers to intensify in the US So again further intensification of these numbers in combination with any hurdles met with the vaccine rollout I think could definitely be something to monitor which could dent near term sentiment Given where markets lie at the moment Otherwise the other big thing I wanted to talk about today Well something we've known about for a while really but I guess it's coming to a final point today Which is the Georgia Senate race So long a solidly Republican state Georgia surprise the nation back in November of last year by going with Biden And it was the first time that the state had backed the Democratic presidential candidate in almost three decades That's raised liberal hopes of war knock and ossoff to potentially turn them completely This deeply what otherwise would be a conservative state Now a few things to be aware of here if the Democrats pull off a victory in both Because there's two seats here that will leave parties with 50 seats each in the Senate Now what happens when there's a tie the Vice President Kamala Harris would then hold the casting ballot in the event of a tie on any vote And should the Republicans win just one of those seats they would retain their thin majority Now obviously this has big repercussions then about the actual ability that the Democrats under Biden might have In order to pass various different types of legislation Now the latest polling data gives a slight edge actually to both Democratic candidates in their respective races And should the Democrats win both seats they'll have control of the Senate as well as the House As I said gives Biden the scope to push ahead with a broad package of policies potentially Along with higher corporate taxes banks could face concerns over more stringent regulations Should Democrats prevail and big tech could face more challenges as the Dems would take What is expected to be a much tougher stance on the growing influence of some of the names like Facebook and Alphabet and so on Elsewhere other things to keep an eye on or stock sectors Energy shares which have obviously lifted substantially in recent times following the positive vaccine And the kind of reshaping of global demand on the back of that But the Democratic sweep could halt momentum to a certain degree All in gas shares on fears of tougher rules for the industry Quite the opposite approach to what we would have had under President Trump Don't forget that the Democratic sweep could give further support to a strong green energy push Of course under a Biden administration And then one of the other things or two other areas I'd be looking at is A Democratic sweep could also weigh on shares of healthcare insurers and pharmaceutical companies Could be going away from that more privatization view under Republican-led government And then finally one thing if it was a complete blue sweep scenario And they had control of Congress as well as Biden Then it could set the stage for any infrastructure spending packaged at benefits A range of industrial materials and construction shares Given the general Democratic appetite for doing more larger scale Remember with those paychecks Trump was going for $2,000 rather than $600 The Dems were actually in favour of that Only then for Mitch McConnell to obviously vote that down For the more prudent type of kind of Republican approach So with this Georgia Senate race, how important is it? I think it is actually very important I don't believe that the results though we're going to know straight away Probably going to be another day or so The overall take here, I think the initial market reaction Could be definitely something quite interesting and fairly acute for markets In the very short term intraday when we do get conclusion of this However, if it is just literally a very still, a close race between the two And even if the Democrats have it I mean you only need one senator to cross the floor And then certain legislation would be blocked So it's definitely not a runaway slam dunk But I think in the short term markets obviously tend to From a new perspective over exaggerate initial reactions So they would be the sectors I'd be looking at So from a broader index point of view Perhaps then you might see a bit of a divergence Where the big tech might be weighed on in regards to NASDAQ But the overall idea about the infrastructure spending package Might lift some of those other related names Industrial and material and construction shares The other thing to mention was OPEC Oil this morning is pretty much dead flat It's trading down just 5 cents, 47, 57 OPEC plus talks were unexpectedly suspended yesterday After a majority of members including Saudi Arabia Opposed Russia's proposal for a February supply hike The Russians under Alexander Novak Were looking for another 500,000 per hour per day Increased as to what they did last month Before ministers gather again today So they're meeting again at 3pm London time They'll have the chance to hold bilateral talks And consult with their home governments Delegates said so I would be mindful of any further Mermorings and rumor mill going around on Twitter And the like for the outcome of that I don't expect any change to be quite frank I think that the fact that they weren't able to say that Conclusively yesterday was perhaps the main thing That really weighed on prices Because obviously they need Russia on board Given how large their production levels are But that in combination with the overall worsening Of the virus situation creating further Renewed intensification of lockdowns Certainly enough to just take oil off What otherwise was a push up to 50 dollars But net net we're still trading up Around 47.50 at the moment Which is relatively high all things considered Meanwhile sticking with oil One thing to be aware of is it's worth noting That Iran has began enriching uranium Up to 20% and seized a South Korean flagged tanker In Gulf waters This was yesterday Quite interesting because the move does come Ahead of obviously the incoming US administration Could escalate tensions when they're looking To seek to revive their nuclear deal So just something to be aware of Given the sensitivity of that geographic area Looking at the day ahead Obviously the main things still very much so Tracking of COVID and any vaccine type updates From a calendar perspective The main sort of things that I'm looking for Are really the German unemployment data That's going to come just ahead of 9am London time Wouldn't really anticipate that to be much of a market mover But nonetheless worth keeping an eye on It's expected to come in at 6.1% Which would be unchanged in the prior month And they're really focusing to the afternoon No major 130s coming out of the states But you do have the ISM manufacturing PMI Which is expected to weaken slightly Of fairly elevated levels of course From 57.5 down to 56.6 But the thing I'd keep an eye on Is the employment constituent After last month's readings Saw a pretty dramatic drop into contraction territory To 48.4 from 53.2 Otherwise API crude or infantry is as per usual Much later into the evening at 9.30 London time So that is it I hope that was a good update To get you up to speed Of what's been going on fundamentally Head of the market open for today I'll see those in the Amplify live community On the live stream shortly Have a good day and take care