 We're back. We're live with think-tech energy in America Usually we talked to Lou Puirisi wherever he is in the world But we understand he is tonight Attending Samson and Delilah either that or he's playing Samson in Samson and Delilah. We're not sure But in any event we do have a show with a prank the energy policy research Think tank in Washington with its researcher in Mexico. It's really a global show, isn't it? Emily Medina Emily Medina joins us from Mexico City. Hi Emily. Thank you for joining us So Emily, let's talk about you know your area of specialty. Let's talk about Mexico Let's talk about the economy in Mexico and how it's doing because we know That Mexico is heavily involved both ways Export and import in oil and gas from the United States and elsewhere And we want to find out how it's doing because we care about our partner to the south We all care. Well, most of us care about our partner to the south. Can you talk about the economy in Mexico over the last year? He has seen a few changes in Mexico first of all Andres Manuel of El Salvador Mexico's president took off it in late 2018 so we've been already a year in his administration and There's a lot of talk about and what's been changing in Mexico so There's a couple of things that are important to mention so a Year ago. I'm gonna have an approval rating of 85 percent in Mexico, which is huge. Yes and he won with an overwhelming majority And Right now this approval rating has gone down to 62 percent So this is largely due to the fact that Mexico has seen an economic slowdown over the last year our economy had a technical recession in 2019 and And today and the outlook is doesn't appear much better for 2020 and This is mainly due to the fact that he's taking a different direction in terms of Mexico's energy policy and Which is basically saying or Having a different view that what we had in the previous administration with which was a lot more open to participation and I'm low actually I've been very critical with the neoliberal model and This has been reflected on that specific economy And so yeah Well, I you know, I just I wonder that's a pretty dramatic decrease in approval You think the economy is the only issue I mean are people so focused on the economy and oil and gas that they would have a dramatic 20-point drop in approval in Only one year or there are other factors working to alongside To make people less enthusiastic about him Yes two of the main factors have been that since he took office he pledged on fighting corruption and reducing violence in the country and Those two things haven't been addressed fully We have a record of violence in the country the numbers that just been increasing since he took office in terms of homicide rates and Summing aside In the country is a big issue as well and he hasn't responded in a way that Makes the thing that One he cares or that he actually has a strategy to to revert There's a violence rate No, those two issues have been and very and definitive on the approval rate The issues that have to do with violence and corruption So people really I think were very optimistic and hopeful that the new president would fight hotels and and and violent gangs in the country and His strategy has not shown positive results in terms of declining rates of violence and Oppositely we see record numbers of Homicides in the country, but is there any suggestion? Is there any suggestion that he is under the thumb of the of the gangs or is he just incompetent? It's mostly has to do with the strategy that his Been using I mean if it sounds almost I mean funny He he said, you know, but I thought it's not a lot of us Which basically means I mean he's gonna hug instead of shoot So that's been his strategy. I mean his based on you know Being Nice to go tells I mean that doesn't work. I mean you need to have a good strategy To fight the violence group And his strategy has not been ideal No, you know gang violence and corruption gang violence and corruption It's kind of like terrorism because it scares you because you don't know when it's coming to your town next You don't know when your friends relatives associates are going to be gunned down or get involved in some unpleasant You know gang activity and so I can I can see that that would affect You know the way people think about the government, but let me let me offer other Issues for you to chime in on for example We still have the contention between Mexico and the United States the the migrant issue Which is oh so tragic And it isn't resolved. I mean if it is please tell me, but I don't I haven't heard that it's resolved lately And I I don't know the status of the wall you hear all kinds of stories about the wall How part of it blew down in a wind in a breeze one day? So I don't I don't know if and Trump is using money That was supposed to be for one thing and using it for another thing and the whole thing seems to be a kind of confusion in the American Media so I wonder how people feel about the wall and the migrant issue and those poor people who were camped outside And and their daughters are molested and they starve and they get sick In these forced camps that that's a trump has created just on the south side of the American border How does that affect the situation and the economy? No, what's been happening is pretty terrible. I mean Mexico has become Trump's law so and That's really Bad news for for migrants because That means that Authorities are now feeling more harshly with the migrants coming in and It is really A human rights abuse what we're seeing in several Several migrant centers and And in in points that cause the country where we have migrants coming in from Central America, for example From Guantanamo and what have you and at the border? We are seeing that the The Mexican authorities have been dealing with it in a pretty valid manner They've sprayed and pure gas and and they've done, you know Those types of things to to contain the cause the issue of Migrant flows coming from Central America and crossing it throughout Mexico to get to the US so What happened is that you know before we had the government Basically, I mean had a different understanding with the US administration in terms of their treating migrants and right now the tone has escalated and basically Trump's and nature that that Mexico took harsher measures and to address the migrant issue and they haven't been addressed in Orderly ways because I don't know if it's because of a lack of resources or just the the lack of capacity to deal with this issue but And their response and the way that they're dealing with it because of the pressure from the US administration has been to just be the Mexican wall Yeah, so Well, I you know, I always think that at the bottom of all these Diplomatic engagements or non-engagements. There is there is the human psychology involved and if I were Mexico or if I were Abrador I Would I would the average Mexican person would say gee we're really being victimized here We have a president in the United States as opposed to earlier presidents who just pushes us around something awful And he threatens us and he attacks us and and of course he has imposed tariffs on us And he calls the shots and we dance and I think that you know if I were Mexico What does Mexico has 80 million people something along that line? Yeah, so Yeah, if I were Mexico I'd be I'd be concerned that I was being taken advantage of and pushed around And I think that that probably you know is something that would it focuses on the government You know, why doesn't the government protect me? Why doesn't the government stand up to this man? Why isn't the government? You know telling me he's off base But it's very hard to do that obviously especially with Trump and I imagine you know when you look at an economy You are reflecting public confidence confidence in the marketplace confidence in the government confidence in the future Confidence in your resources including human resources So I suspect that that that has to be a factor to that affects this Approval rating and that affects the economy. What do you think? Yes, I mean he's been heavily criticized for his strategy in dealing with the migrant issue in the country and he's and his giving in to the Trump administration or the US administration instead of you know of studying and Terms to combat the issue in a more holistic way That's Go ahead. Yeah, and if we want to I mean and this is also gonna affect our security issues in the country Because we have people coming in that are not being processed and correctly and This can create all sorts of repercussions cost your money It costs your money for the administration over the migrants who come across your border from the south And it costs you you know the cost of administering in terms of human resources government government resources and so forth On the other hand, I was telling you before Mexico has a responsibility I think and I mean the biggest one of the biggest economy in Latin America and I think it has the The resources to deal with this issue in a humanly way, and it's not doing so Mm-hmm. I was telling you before the show that I saw an article or two about How Mexico was was turning more polyglot? That it was entertaining migrants from elsewhere for as permanent residents as people who had you know Visas who could live in Mexico and form communities and get jobs and contribute to the economy I don't know how people in Mexico see that whether they like that or not But you know just from an observer point of view it seems to me that it could be a very good thing You know to to allow immigration into Mexico to participate in you know in a better economy How do you see that how does how do the people in Mexico see that? well, I think I mean a lot is gonna have to do with the How issues are handled so we need to have a plan to I mean if we're gonna receive migrants we need to have a plan to provide them a job and you also make sure that and We have the security protocols in place So that the people that are coming in are coming in in a good way And that we have a plan any It is In terms of I mean if we have the current situation I think it could be a problem to accept so many people and not have a plan So for example our economy, you know, like I said and Technical recession, I mean this means that our employment rates are the lowest they have been in years Mmm. So if we so that's gonna be an issue, I think If we don't have jobs for the people who are coming in and even for the Mexican citizens, I mean if we see this This unemployment rate, I mean even Mexicans are having a problem getting jobs, you know and a large part of our economy depends on informal jobs and We need to have a better management of drifts of providing maybe We need to first I mean take the Uninformal jobs and and bring them to so that they can be formal jobs and increase our economy and maybe I mean we can include I mean migrants economy in that way, but first we need to have Strengthening in the economy and we need to have more investment so that people can actually have jobs. Yeah Has as investment changed since Abadou got in an office has investment changed since Trump got in office So are you seeing the same sort of the same levels of foreign investment that you were seeing before? Well, that's that's also been huge issue So just if we focus just on Mexico's energy sector We're seeing that investment has then decreased over the last year and I mean I think you took off So this is because we have The mechanisms that we had in place to bring foreign investment are now and so So and that's Specifically what I mean with that is having the oil and ground and the farm out and closed to private investment This has been to the government's decision I'm not sure. I mean The reason for it in terms of economically it makes no sense. It's more of It has to do with this nationalist agenda of having the Mexican government and Bring the oil production up by itself So his slogan or for ten makes me to talk off it was to rescue Mexico's energy sector and to rescue and the state-owned oil company Petróleos, Mexicano and And This has been contrary to what we've seen We have panmex with record of losses just in 2019 and the losses were about 19 or able to round it up. It would be 19 billion, but it's actually 18 $24 billion loss In 2019, which is the highest loss that we've seen in panmex And historically It's actually nearly double the loss that we saw in the previous year Is this because the price of oil has gone down? We're in a time now when the price of oil is not necessarily going up It sometimes goes down. Maybe it's one term trend to go down And is this because is the loss in panmex Due to the fact that oil energy prices are going down on a global market Yeah, it has to do with a series of things So yeah, like you said, and the price of oil has been helped and our food exports Sells decline because of this and and also because the Decreased in oil output coming from panmex, which was about seven percent per year What about the two factors? I mean having Defined in production, you know, we're seeing a seven percent decline in panmex production Which is today 1.6 million barrels of oil per day So we see a decline in production and we also see Reduced oil exports because of it and also reduced sales Revenue from sales because of the declining and oil price so all of those factors have to do with the Panic losses and also a huge issue has been that and the government has been very Serious about investing on Mexico's refineries. So that doesn't help the picture Because we know that downstream has More reduced margins and investing in exploration and production activity So when we have six refineries, they're operating at one third of their capacity and we're and we're still pouring money into them We lose the opportunity of investing in other projects that are more profitable like exploration and production and if we also have cancellation or Stop however, you may call it to the oil around Then we have you know the the opportunity to capture that And foreign investment that would help and bring your production up and help our economy Then we are in trouble Well, you might be in more trouble actually Emily because we have the we have the virus and I don't know if there are a significant number of cases of the virus in Mexico these days But I would imagine that most most places on the planet are at risk And my question is you know if we have and we probably will have a global downturn here Whether you call it an epidemic or a pandemic or an endemic This probably going to affect travel. It's probably going to affect trade It's probably going to affect the economies of most of the countries You know that are that are at the top of the heap and maybe some at the bottom too So that's got to affect Mexico too. So if I give you in the next year A reduction in global economic activity because of this What happens to Mexico especially a view of the fact that Mexico is already in a bit of a downturn from other causes Yeah, it's unfortunate that we're Um being I mean this issue with the virus at the same time that we are struggling with our economy And so yeah, we're starting in the wrong foot Yeah, right And I think the the virus I mean it's gonna definitely have an impact on on crude act for Mexico as the oil demand globally decline and This is gonna, you know, in fact our economy and we need to to find ways to I mean to Provide certainly and provide The mechanisms that allow and investment to come into the country. So we have So a big issue and I think what also affecting economic growth in Mexico has been and The increasing uncertainty coming from the government where Just an example We were expected to have an interview plan for infrastructure investment in the country in mid-February And still there's not a plan in place So I mean if we don't have Options for private investment to participate then It's hard to expect the economy to grow What about the other aspect of the virus that have you got cases of coronavirus in Mexico? Are people afraid of coronavirus in Mexico? Are they slowing down their economic and work activity because of it? I believe we have about five cases of coronavirus throughout the country They've been contained and they're being handled People did panic over the coronavirus and you know the stocks for face masks and antibacterials and ran out in many stores because of panic Sales and so In terms of how we address this issue, I mean I think and You know, there's been increased in communication on the effects of the coronavirus and how to treat it And what have you so I mean in Mexico is pretty far away from where the virus is I mean It's I don't think it's gonna be Huge issue in Mexico Well given all of that given all that we've talked about in the past few minutes If I made you the president of Mexico Emily, and I'm inclined to do that actually What would you do now to improve the economy to improve Mexico's position in world trade? Mexico's ability to you know Develop its resources and so forth. What would you do? I would provide certain need for investment I would open the channels that allow foreign direct investment and Mexico I mean in domestic investment Right now companies Mexican foreign companies Don't have the certain need to put their money in Mexico Because of the Signals that's been coming from the government, which are basically To be at energy is sovereign and You know, I mean those types of messages don't provide journey and For private participants to and increase their investments in the country and I think and that affects the Mexican population in general as we Are going to continue seeing our production decline And we're going to see and you know increase energy prices because of the lack of investment In exploration and production activities. They're much needed to Reverse this trend well, Emily, let me let me say that You you represent I think the future of Mexico and I will vote for you As the president as soon as I get a chance But I also feel I also feel that Mexico is you know Mexico Canada. They're our best friends Mexico. We're bonded to Mexico We have so many Mexicans and Latin Americans in this country We are inextricably intertwined with Mexico and we should have a much more robust relationship with you And we should help you in every way we can because you can be you know our best friend south of the border And I would like to see that and I hope the next administration can actually have that happen in any event That's that's Emily Medina. She's from E print the energy policy research Foundation in Washington And she has joined us from Mexico City by a V mix call And we are delighted to talk to her at all times and I hope we talk to you again Emily. I really appreciate you're coming down Thank you very hello via Kandiyos