 All right, thanks for staying with us now. Political attempts to correct the skewed balance inherent on one region dominating the political space since independence has proved abortive. Those favored by the imbalance will continue to sabotage any efforts that hope to mend this one-sided leadership. Some have said that the interest or the nearest attempt of a southern becoming elected president after independence was in 1992 presidential election. It was won by Moschuda Biola of the Social Democratic Party, SDP and judged, of course, to be the freest and fairest elections, right? Now, the best elections ever held in the history, some would also argue. Now, we believe if there's ever to be any hope for a more balanced leadership structure in Nigeria, it should first be a deliberate attempt to understand why. Now, so we're asking why is the North so relevant, right, in the Nigerian political space? And why do we continue to see them dominate the scene? Now, that's the question, please. Let's hear what you have to say. Remember, you can join the conversation, send us an SMS or WhatsApp to 081-8038-4663. I'm going to bring in Sandusine in a minute, but I want to hear your thoughts. You even have an idea why. Okay, so I think it's because the North has a very unique common culture. I mean, don't put it that way, right? So even this is not even religion now because even the Christians and Muslims seem to be able to leave together and still have that sort of unity. And I think the language also binds them as well. So I mean, it's very possible for you to see someone who is not even, maybe someone who's from Chad, for example, a fullening man and he lives in the North and he can survive in the North till the peak of his career and even, you know, retire there and not have any issues. So I think it's their unity. They have that very strong bond that just keeps and puts them together. And that's what kept them going. Interesting. I just want to also add that for me, I think what I've observed about the Northern people, they are a lot more politically aware. They are politically literate. They might be illiterate in terms of book and reading and whatever, but when it comes to political literacy, they have the highest number of politically illiterate people in the North. But let me bring in our guest now. So this is Baturi, is a communication and public relations expert with 18 years working experience in media, international development, private sector and politics. A graduate of mass communication from the University of Medjugorje, San Jose holds MSC in social work and specialization on community development from Ladukea-Kintola University of Technology, Obomoshor. Now a master's in public relations from Bayeru University, Kano and an MSC project management from the Robert Kennedy College, Zurich in Switzerland. And he's joined us via phone, live from Kano State, I believe. We had a bit of challenge with his network, so that's why we won't delay it. But thank you so much for joining us, Anisi. Thank you, Oaf. How are you? I'm very well, thank you. So, I mean, you heard our conversation and a little bit of banter. When I talked about, what was it called? The presidential spokesperson for the APC saying that the APC flag bearer, I should admit, who has a lot of Northern backing, right? Every single time there is an election, there's always a buzz about the North. It tells us that there's a very, very strong relevance that the North has. And we're trying to understand it because for me, I believe that if there's anything I have learned in this life, when you begin to unravel and understand why certain things happen, then you are able to also then have a better understanding. And if you really want to switch or change a structure, it must come first from that level of understanding. So maybe you should of course explain this relevance, right? When we say everything about presidential or any kind of, like Israeli presidency, the North has to be, you must get the Northern buying. Why is that so? Are you there? Yes. Go ahead. Hi, thank you very much. Hello. Yeah, we're with you. Go ahead. Of course, yeah. Thank you very much for this conversation. I'll send in the relevance of Northern Nigeria into the next question. There are some second questions that we need to understand in the political space. The North has a political investment over the years, simply because of a number of questions. Question number one is the Northern power bloc. What led the new perspective of the retired military general and leaders moving, who have been in the power sector for many years and tried to do a little bit of control to some extent what can happen in the country? The second thing is the population of the North. Population is very, very high. The population is like somewhere in the United States of America. You have a larger number of bloc across the 19th and 20th centuries, over 6 million of the 30th and 26th towns. And this bloc is actually the political might of the North. But we need to understand the differences between the various categories of safe holdings in terms of politics itself in the North. The voters are there and they are controlled by different categories of the safe holdings. And the key stakeholders of the North really have this connection with the real voters at the grassroots level. I am particularly talking about the traditional power bloc and then the regional power bloc. If you look at the civil rights in the United States, there are areas where are predominantly in the United States of America and then there are places where are predominantly in the United States of America. But sometimes the North decides to speak with one voice without the sentiments of religion, pride, or the gradually departing. But in some cases, the North can go in different ways, even with different categories of the population. Looking at the 2023 scenario, it's actually not going to be about the North or the South. Because some of these factors of Northern domination in the political space might not relate for some simple reason. One, we have two major contenders from the four Norths. One is from the North East, which is a two-power worker who has been a very frequent and popular candidate. And then we have Riley Muta, from North East, which is the highly populated geopolitical zone in the North. And this is the first time we've contested. So, the clash will be between two communities and the Northern candidates. Two Norths, plus a thousand candidate that has a very strong alliance with the North. Why I say because APC is rooted in the North from 2019, you understand? So you cannot doubt the fact that this was even in 2020 because it's in a promotion. But on the other side, the clash will generally be between four major candidates. And those four major candidates, some of them have some alliances within the other region, but some of them are with the Russians. And some from the South, like since you have some alliances with the North. So the confliction would be in a somehow conflict with them around because if you look at those factors, the Northern power bloc is trying to redirect or to divide into two, because this time around there are some people who are not really happy with the APC and they might not really work for the APC. And there are some of them who are also going to really hold their arms and decided not to really protect into the 20th century, 20th century political activities. But if you look at this, since the population, do you follow me? Go ahead please. Since the population after the power bloc, you have some people who run that medley from around the technocrats, the retired civil servants, the elitist community of the North, and then you have the business community of the North, and then you have the religious community. Okay, so we'll go at a very short break now. When we come back from the break, we'll continue the conversation. Stay with us, we'll be right back. Thanks for staying with us. And if you're just tuning in, we're discussing the topic, the relevance of the North in Nigerian politics. And we have with us, Sanu Sibatire, who's joined us to have the conversation. And remember, you can also join the conversations and send us an SMS or WhatsApp to do it. 1-803-4663. You can also tweet at us at WeishoAfrica1 with the hashtag Weisho. Before we just bring in Sanu Sibatire again, Manny, you're here. How was your day? How was your weekend? How are you? My weekend, I'm still very, I'm badly shaking right now. My weekend was very stressful, and today has just been very hectic. On my way here, I got hit by someone, so. Oh wow. Yeah. I'm doing the basketballs on the road. Please, well, please, well. So, Batu Ray, if you can hear us, Chinelo has a question for you. Okay, go ahead. Okay, so I was going to ask about, you said something about population, the Northern population, how this has, or rather how this has attributed to the Northern's dominance when it comes to Nigerian politics, right? Yes. Okay, so could you please explain further? Okay, yeah. You know, the population is very, very high, and looking at the registered boaters of the 2023 potential boaters, for example, Khamahas over 6 million Naira. And you know, one thing that's really trying to, it's trying to save the narrative for 2023 is actually the economic hardship that has lasted so much, the downtrodden, the less privileged who constitute like 80% of the total number of boaters that may actually go out to cast their boats. And still on the population, it's a political threat because the North, if the North decided to go in one direction, the population would be helpful, definitely because of the number of boats that can actually make it. But on the other side, we can ask ourselves, can the North have a block boat for 2023 in one direction? Naturally, the answer is no because of the two major contenders from the North and then one major contender from the South who they thrown allies in the North. So with this, the 2023 scenario might not really be the traditional scenario of Northern election or that can protect the Northern interests at a go. Let me take the scenario of the presence of Chinibu into the rest. Chinibu has a very strong alliance with the some selected Northern governors. There are many in number like I had you mentioned in one of the next items that you read during the beginning of this program. But unfortunately, only two of them are sparing for the second tenor in 2023. But the remaining are finishing their second tenors and they might be of less than relevant compared to the 2019 election. That is one. And secondly, Buhari has been from the North and unfortunately the North still felt that Buhari has not done nothing much for the Northern region. And it's like, both in somebody from you and ending up in a double Joe Fadi, politically, economically and paternity wife. So that blockbots that Buhari has been enjoying from 2003 of between 7 million to 11 million before he won the election finally in 2015, might be divided into the three major candidates. Particularly, Rabin Kokoso of NNPP will take the major part of Buhari's blockbots for a simple reason of being probably seen as a very, probably very good ambassador of the North. I want to come to you on this subject of, if you can hear me, I want to come to you on this subject of population because as I mentioned earlier at the beginning of the conversation, why are we not able to actually have right figures? We've not done sensors in a very long time, right? Most of these things we say, oh, the population is there, the population is there. If the population is there, why is it so difficult for any serious government to say, you know what, let me know the numbers and let us calculate who truly is a Nigerian and how many people are in a certain region? Because again, this has been the narrative all along that there is a block, there is a block, what's it called number? There's a huge number of electorates. I agree with you 100% and I'd mentioned it earlier. I know that Northerners for sure are the most literate when it comes to voting, right? Most of the people that attain legal age go to get their PVCs without being asked to, right? They have that political literacy. They have that consciousness that, oh, they want to be part of the electoral process, right? That is on one hand, but the hand of the sensors itself, the numbers, it's, I mean, for me, I just feel that some of these numbers are exaggerated. They are, you know, it's not really, yes, we might have land mass in the North, but do we have those people that really are eligible voters, right, that are in the North? That is the subject of conversation because a lot of state governments, federal governments, everybody avoids the subject of sensors. I don't know why because it's also a tool for political leaders to use and they tell you, oh, they have 50 million somewhere, somewhere. Which is not 100% correct? Well, there are some things that you need to look at apart from having the voters only. The political benefit that is attached to the population does not serve at the voters' level only, but I have to remind you that even the states of other political positions outnumbered from the North outnumbered maybe in other parts of the country. For example, the population of Kano Puti in a position where it has all the time 40 members of state House of Assembly, 24 House of Representatives. And these 24 House of Representatives were determined before 1999 and that's based on the population of the state. And I believe you must have been aware that some states will be having maybe five, eight House of Representatives members. So these numbers are really helping in terms of the general political dominance. Why? Because you have 360 members of House of Representatives. So if you calculate the ratio coming from Kano, Koto, Adamawa, and other places, you'll have more numbers. And those numbers are the people that actually go to the grassroots level and mobilize both and manage elections, manage campaigns during the election also. So for example, if you come to Lagos, the political domination probably might be left in the hands of the core politicians. Other people might be really trying to just do their business and just wait for the day of election. But in the north, the situation is not the same. If you have the core politicians of like 10% of the total population of the some conservative states like Kano, you will have like other 60% of the population who are not directly full-fledged partisan politicians, but they participate in one way or the other into the political process because of the political awareness. And probably the relationship between various political office holders, both appointed and elected positions. So that creates massive awareness. And in places like Kano, as I'm talking to you now, if you go to any place, be it market, hospital, the major dominant discussion is about nothing but politics. Yeah. Because this is the political scene. But in some places might not be the same. You understand? You can go to some places in Lagos and if it's not politics, people will just see you as like. Yeah, so yeah, I mean, I 100% agree with you because that consciousness is always there in the north. But sometimes we wrap up the conversation, right? I mean, you've given a lot of breaking down as to how the northern vote will be split in these elections based on the, what's it called, the three main, what's it called, northerners that are involved in the political race, right? So but would you say that if you as a candidate does not have, you do not have a northern buy-in at some what? Is it safe to say that that candidate is probably running and going nowhere? Well, that's absolutely true because from my little analysis over the, like, three, four, five previous elections, is either a southern candidate with so much buy-in from the north or a northern candidate that is most preferred by the northern bloc vote. So if we woke up tomorrow and see a northern president succeed in Buhari, whether we like it or not, we have to give the credit to a certain extent to the north. And if we also wake up the next election with a southern president succeed in Buhari, whether we like it or not, we have to give the credit to a very significant extent to the north. Why I'm saying this because the political players of the country, as I said earlier, are divided into three, four, five. Let me mention about the three. There's a northern power bloc group who operate behind the scenes. Not everybody know them, not everybody see them, and they don't participate in the active politics in a free manner. And then you have the notable northern politicians who are spread across the three major candidates. But the success of each group will determine of who control what number of the votes in what state. A particular reference I will give you. The northeast, which is the second to the largest region that is the north west, has the presidential candidate of the TDP at Yuku and then by presidential candidate of Tegu. Even there, you have to put it both. And in the north west, it has the higher, it has Kwon Koso, which has been one of the most admired candidates in that region and is popular as well. And Kwon Koso has all the tenders to inherit the bloc vote that has been enjoyed by Buhari during the previous elections in 2012 and 2012 and 2011. Okay, let's take some comments. Well, let's take some comments because some people tend to disagree with you. Go ahead. Manny. Hello? Yeah, we'll take some comments. Go ahead. I'm Chine, go ahead. Okay. Good evening, my dear beautiful sisters of what are you saying? The relevance of north in Nigerian politics in the nutshell, I don't know if I'm right or wrong. They feel that they are the only ones who have an idea of leadership and to occupy an office. They also feel that if it's not them, it's nobody. Sister Owa made a very important statement on point. She said that northerners may be literate in leadership but not in the educational system, which is right. And I agree wholeheartedly. You ladies look beautiful and lovely. My name is Daniel Illoway's regular friend. Thank you, Daniel. Go ahead, Manny. I disagree with your guest that the north has the population but I agree with him that the dominance is perpetrated by the elite and retired generals. Call it the Northern Oligarchy, Oligarchy. It is this Oligarchy that dictates the political direction because of their unity which others lack. Take the Orhanese, for instance, where they're ready to produce a president no same with the Afine Ferry. Why is it that the north is kicking against restructuring because it won't favor them? It was the same Oligarchy that... I think I know that. Oligarchy, that's called the Biola Selection. That's called the Biola Selection. How many local governments do we have in the north? So we have like a minute to go but let me just quickly take... Nobody can inherit Buhari's votes. This is from another audience because I totally don't want to believe that there's one singular person that can monster that momentum that Buhari had, President Buhari had in 2015. It's not... I don't see any of the candidates wielding that power. But hey, thank you so much, Onisi, for your time with us. Manny, one word if you had because you didn't say anything at all. Do you still believe that we have to keep depending on the north to produce a precedent like every presidential aspirant that is running for office, do they need to really get the buying of the north? Well, I think like he said, they might need to get the buying because they have the population. They have the larger population of registered voters and not just registered voters, but voters that have collected their PVCs. What we have in the south is we have not many people who are registered and people who are registered and don't have their PVCs. So if they have the numbers and they have the religious sentiments or religious sentiments, then I think we need them. Absolutely. All right, no, we'll leave the show, rather. Now, before we go, thank you so much, Nelo. Thank you, Manny. Thank you, Onisi, as well. Do ensure you follow us on all social media platforms that we show Africa. On Twitter, you can add the one there. 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