 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is doing well. Hope everybody had a great week of trading. Hopefully everybody has a great start to their holiday. If you are new to the channel, the broadcast goes out Monday through Wednesday, Thursday night. I take the day, the night off just to kind of recharge my brain so I could be 100% for Friday and then on the weekend. So if you are new, welcome you to like and subscribe to the channel so you could get pretty much an updated view of the markets on a daily basis, but more important an unbiased view from the trading point of view, right? If you're an investor, you're probably going to get zero value out of this channel. Again, we're not talking about investing. I don't know where stock is going to be a week from now, let alone three weeks from now or three years from now. We're just literally taking the data every single night from the previous night's research and applying it to the next day. So hopefully you guys continue to support and get a lot of value from this channel. So let's talk about it, right? So the markets have been very, very particular in digesting data. If you guys remember all the going back to, and this will be a nice little segue to the week ahead, if you guys remember the November, the November CPI reading came out. It was a really, really big number, right? A really big number, the market really embraced this number and had a really good three, four day run, you know, like everything else stops or at least pauses into supply, starts to come in and starts to digest. The problem is every single time that there is a positive mention, and it seems these days that every big move, every big really exaggerated move either comes from a piece of data, i.e. a jobs number, PPI, CPI, or PAL randomly having intimate thoughts throughout the day, right? As you can see that here's the CPI number, here is the PAL candle, and even on Thursday a little bit of jobs data actually broke a five day losing streak, but we'll get to that in a second. So the weirdest part about what's been going on, usually when you reclaim the 50 day moving average, and you can see here the light blue line represents the 50 day, usually going a pretty big run, right? So here's the last time we reclaimed the 50 day moving average, had a four day run similar to this last time, retraced, tested the 50 day, and started rallying again for the next month and a half. We didn't do that, right? We haven't done that yet, right? Or, you know, maybe we just won't do that at all. But so far we've had that three, four day run, right, back test into support, and then just really having a hard time getting through this little baby channel that it's set on the CPI highs, even despite a more, you know, notable, you know, good talk of containing or controlling inflation from the PAL camp, we're kind of right back down to the bottom of the range here. And, you know, usually consolidation is a good thing, right? You know, I've always maintained stocks just can't go straight up. They need to breathe, right? They need to breathe, they need to digest, they need to get their legs under them, and they can finally start going higher. But the problem is with this latest move is after the initial move, whether it's on data or fed talk, the market kind of comes back and engulfs that previous candle. And that's starting to be a little bit more of a concern, right? Because, again, now we are from, you know, we're talking about a month in, right? The CPI candle was November the 10th. We are presently December 10th, a full month. And we're kind of, you know, doing this distribution. But the majority of this distribution is sitting here right at the bottom of the channel of the last latest move. If we were distributing above here and here and here and here, that would be fine. But it's starting to concern, and it should start to concern the bull side of how long it's taking to kind of get back out through this consolidation. Now, again, is it possible we do so this week? And we have another CPI reading, right? We have another CPI reading this week, right? And then we have a Fed meeting this week. So we have two major catalysts that could potentially, you know, rip this whole conversation apart, start attacking the top of the channel, clear out this 296 on the queues, and we're often running into the 306 supply on the queues. But again, there's a flip side to that, right? There's always an area that you have to play devil's advocate. And I believe as a trader, you have to play devil's advocate. You can't just look at the market through rose-colored glasses, like we talk about all the time, and turn around and say, well, this is what I want, right? Internally, subconsciously, I want the market to go higher. You know, I have positions. And again, if you're an investor, this has nothing to do with you. But if you are an investor and you're trapped in positions, of course you want the market to go higher. But as a trader, and if you trade both sides of the market, it really shouldn't make that big of a deal which way the market is going and which way the trend is going as long as there is a trend. And you can see here, we're kind of stuck into this channel here for over a month. Well, it's going to be a month, it's going to be over a month starting on Monday. But the point is we've only had two consecutive days, right? Two consecutive days in this whole channel, this whole month, that we kind of improved on price action. That's kind of a big deal. And if you look at last week, right, you know, throughout the videos, we kept on talking about this bottom channel here, right? This, you know, this 279, 280 level on the queues. And every single time the market tries to get above that channel, get smacked right down. But the good part, at least for the bulls right now, they continue to defend this bottom channel, right? You see this whole bottom channel, it keeps on stopping literally at the same place. That's 79, 80 area and it keeps on, there's a whole battle front. Even on Friday when they started, you know, when they started the day, it looked really, really good, right? It looked like it was going to, is going to price improve on the previous day's jobs number, at least jobs data. But the bulls failed at the, you know, failed at the intermediate range just to kind of roll over. And if you look at the, you know, if you look at the final tally throughout the week, it's, you know, it's not great, right? You know, S&P fell another 3%, the Dow was down about 3%, and NASDAQ gave up a 4%. What was most notably, or most noticeable above like that rally that we had on Thursday into Friday, there was only a couple of stocks that technically got out of the previous day's range, right? That one was, well at least from the tech stocks point of view. That was NVIDIA, right? That was NVIDIA. That was Netflix, right? That was Netflix. And a lesser name that I really don't pay a lot of attention to, but it's, again, it's a viable chart in the NASDAQ 100, and that was Workday. And if you look at every single stock that had updates, right? Updays in the technology space throughout the week, they were just up, right? There were dead cat bounces going into supply and getting faded. So for example, right, Apple looked good, right? It looked good. It got out by the range. Look what happened. It got stopped at supply, rolled over. Microsoft, right, looked, you know, looked fine. Like it was ready to go. Again, stuffed at the five-day moving average, rolled over. You had Amazon that just couldn't even rally. Okay, you had Google that couldn't even rally. You had Meta that couldn't even rally. You had AMD that couldn't even rally. There's a long, and there's a long laundry list of technology names, especially in the NASDAQ 100, that just could not price approve, improve, especially when the NASDAQ was taking out the highs of the day for two days in a row, finally got stopped at supply. So, you know, as a trader, you have to start putting the pieces to the puzzle, right? And again, I don't know where the market's going to be. Nobody knows where the market's going to be, you know, even on Monday, right? As we say all the time, the only thing we can do is prepare, right? The only thing we can do is prepare and see based on how the charts are closing on Friday close and based on how they're setting up macro, right, especially on the Qs, we're making our choices. We're making our decisions based on technical analysis. And here's something that we have to really appreciate, right? The 50-day moving average is going to be the ultimate line in the sand. I've always maintained, especially for the last week or so, no matter if you're trading to the upside, to the downside, I think any healthy rally or any continuation of a potential healthy rally needs to always retest the 50-day. So, for example, here is a perfect example of reclaiming the 50-day, right? Had a four-five-day move backtesting to the 50-day and the rally resumed, right? So we haven't done that yet, okay? And usually what that happens is it usually happens within the first week after putting in a short-term, a short-term, I don't want to use it with a short-term top, but a short-term exhaustion cycle, right? And this has gone a month, a month. So the longer we can't price improve on what we saw reclaiming the 50-day moving average, the higher probability that, hey, we are going to test the 50-day moving average, but here's the sequence of events that you don't want to see, right? I do still believe that the first move into the 50-day moving average will hold, right? I do believe that. I do believe that the bulls will hold because price action, historical data, if you go through your charts, you'll see after a reclaim of a major moving average, the first to retest usually does hold. The bigger picture is what happens if it doesn't, right? And we've been talking about the scenario of what happens if it doesn't, but we said, you know what, let's not put a cart in front of the horse, let's see if it gets there first. But the longer time it goes by and the longer the bulls can't sustain a next leg higher, this is becoming more and more probable or likely, right? That the first time they do test the 50-day moving average and now we're only four points away on the queues, which is basically nothing. You could have one gap down, one gap down you could get there. But the question is the longer it sits there and starts kind of grinding lower, grinding lower, grinding lower, again, assuming that the CPI number doesn't come in, gangbusters like it did on November, and the November reading, and Powell doesn't set the stocks into orbit, right? We're just assuming that doesn't happen, right? It might happen, it might not, we don't know, right? But the point is we have to always be prepared from the worst case scenario. So here's the worst case scenario, okay? And I don't care if you're a trader or investor, but here is the worst case scenario. The worst case scenario is we close below 278. 278 will be the 50-day moving average. We close below 278, again, you don't have to look far, right? And this is kind of the first kind of step to being a technical analysis trader. First close below the 50-day moving average, you could see what happens, right? And you know, you could see what happens here, right? You have a long distribution underneath and starts a really big downward cycle that ended. It started in August and ended in November 10th, right? It's a long time. So the last thing the bulls want to do is close below 278, because if we do close below 278, you can see with your eyeballs, and again, the basics of technical analysis sometimes without the data, without the moving averages and all that stuff is having your eyeballs. So you could see how much pressure potentially you could have in the downward cycle if we do close below the 50-day moving average. So that's something you want to definitely keep an eye out for this week, right? So guys, write this number down. 278 is going to be the line in the sand, okay? I don't care how emotional you are. You think that you're smarter than the market. You think you're smarter. Hey, Dan, you're an idiot. Okay, that's all great. But write down this number, right? Not everybody's going to like you. But this number you have to appreciate and you have to respect. 278 is the line in the sand for the bulls and the bears. If the bulls hold, we're going to go back higher. If the bears hold, well, there's a whole sequence of events that, again, if you are an immature child that don't believe in technical analysis, don't respect it, you're going to see it. And again, it doesn't mean this is the end of the bull run. Of course, historically, through 100 years, we're going to be probably higher 10 years from now. We're talking about it day to day, right? Day to day, week to week, month to month, right? We're not predicting them. Nobody's predicting anything. This is just basic common sense of technical analysis. So any build below the 278 level, it's not a good thing, right? It's not a good short-term thing. And sometimes that short-term thing turns into a four or five month scenario. But if the bulls hold the big number going into this week, at least taking baby steps, right? We're not talking about 296 at the top of the channel. We're talking about the top of the channel for the last week, right? And the top of the channel for the last week, where the bulls got rejected is this 286. So what the bulls need to do, right? We already know what the bears need to do. Reclaim 278 to the bottom. What the bulls need to do is reclaim at least 286 on the close. Because if we can reclaim 286 on the close, then you have measured potential to 289, 291, 294, and obviously any close above 296, Santa Claus is not coming with coal. He's coming with a lot of Christmas presents. So it's a very, very important week. So, you know, we don't know what's going to happen with Powell, right? A lot of people are betting, well, Powell's going to save the day again. Well, Powell's ready to try to save the day X amount of times. That he can save the market, right? The CPI, and we've seen now historical days of both downside and upside action, right? Here is a massive downside CPI reading. Here is a massive upside CPI reading, right? Here is a massive downside CPI reading. Here is a massive upside CPI reading. So we don't know, right? We don't know. We're guessing, we're hoping, we're this, that, the third. But the most important part is we don't know where the market is, but we have to be prepared for both sides, right? And that's kind of the one thing I echo in every single video. Be prepared, right? We don't know what's going to happen, but be prepared. So if the data is telling you that 90% of the stocks are closing on the bottom of the range, right? And that's kind of where we are, right? You can see with your own eyes, right? We're closer to the bottom of the range to the top. Then you're likely going to have or continue to have more stocks that are probably breaking down, right? So if you look at names like AMD, right? We'll get to the individual pivots in a second. You can see AMD is below supply. It's starting to roll over. Look at Google, right? These are all NASDAQ 100 companies. These are not some $2 stocks that people are manipulating, right? These are big, heavyweight, tech-friendly, tech-loving, financial, institutional-friendly companies. And Amazon starting to break down, right? You got Amazon very, very close, right? The only thing that saved it last time was this Bollinger ban here, this lower Bollinger. Amazon, again, at the bottom of the channel here, not good, right? Look, Apple. Apple is only a couple of points away from the bottom of the range as well. So again, it's not the point of Apple is not a great company. We know Apple is a great company. We know Amazon is a great company. But the point is if they start taking down technical damage, big macro levels to the downside, and Powell cannot save the day this time around, the narrative of this market is going to change. And again, if you were an aspiring trader, the faster that you understand, the faster you want to learn how to trade both sides of the market, the happier you'll be in your transition for aspiring trader to professional trader. The longer you put off that the market, no matter what's going to happen, the market's going to go higher, maybe it does. But the question is, can you stay solvent, right? Can you stay soft, right? And that's the name of the game. And especially, unfortunately, a lot of new traders, they come to this business. They come in with very, very limited funds, right? Their money supply is not great. Their exposure, their emotional levels are extremely high. Their lack of process is obvious. And everybody's come to the same business with exactly the same way, but the faster you learn to kind of look at the market from the reality that you have instead of the reality you want, that's when you start really accepting all aspects of the business. So of course, everybody loves Apple. I love Apple, you love Apple. I have every Apple product under the sun, right? My kids love Apple, but the point is it starts taking down this bottom range here while it's going to go lower, and that's the whole point. So going into this week, again, the big number on the upside, on the Qs, at least not a big number, but intermediate number, especially when the data comes out and Powell speaks, is this 286 level to the upside and this 278 level to the downside. Everything else is going to be noise. Everything else, you're probably trading cash flow both to the up and to the downside when you look at the SPYs, right? Look how close the spies are to this bottom range here. And again, it's the same thing as the Qs, man. This is not a great sign. It's not a great sign that the banks that we covered last, I think it was last weekend's video, right? They're breaking down here, right? It's not a good thing. They're taking a lot of exposure into the SPYs. They're taking a lot of exposure into the Main Street index funds. So the point is if they start cracking, right? Like any close, any single close on the SPYs below 390, it's not like we're $10 away, guys. We're literally only $2, $3 away from that 390 level. Any close below 390, then it's a little bit better shape than the Nasdaq, but then it's going to test this 50-day moving average as well. The Dow, it's not really my focal point just because the Dow is only at 30 stocks, but you can even see the Dow, right? The diamonds start confirming $334.72. You got some selling pressure as well. So the stage is set for next week. Again, we have Powell, we have CPI. But more important is we have our levels, right? And no matter what you're trading, what type of trader you are, if you don't respect the levels, well, those levels are going to kick your ass and that's the nicest way I could possibly say it, both on the long and short side. So again, instead of fighting with some random person on social media where you think Tesla is going to be three years from now, look at the chart. It's telling you where it could be tomorrow, where it could be next week, or where it's possibly not going to be because it's stuck in the middle of the ranges and all those channels need to confirm. So it's a very, very important thing. Instead of arguing and spending countless hours on message boards and on Twitter and all these different fancy websites talking about what you think is going to happen and what you think, you're an idiot, you're an idiot. Go kill yourself. You don't know what you're doing. Work on being a better self. Work on being a better trader. Hello, work on being a better human being. I think it's a lot more time that you can spend better time making a better dent in your life adventures than kind of wasting your time fighting with people at the end of the day. Nobody cares, right? Nobody cares what you think. Nobody cares what I think. Nobody cares what you think. It's all about price action. It's either going to go up or it's either going to go down. But isn't it important to kind of understand the dynamics to why something could go up, why something could go down instead of arguing with somebody on the internet who doesn't care, doesn't even know that you're alive until 30 seconds ago. So be a better friend to yourself. Take constructive steps into a being, a better human, a being trader and time, right? Like we say all time, time will solve itself out. So let's talk about Friday's pivots. Again, there was some good things. There was some things that stalled out, but that's kind of where the market is. Netflix, again, the two strongest names were Netflix and NVIDIA. Then Netflix upgraded, 321 needs to build. More important, Netflix got above that 323 CPI high went all the way up to 329. Big move considering that NVIDIA, I think NVIDIA, Netflix and Workday, the only stocks at the top of the channel is actually a really, really strong move on Netflix. NVIDIA was great. 172.65 needs to build. Here was NVIDIA, right? Here was NVIDIA. Netflix took out this 172.65 against it. It said basic. Like these are basic charts. There's nothing crazy about these charts. These are basic daily charts. It took out the 72.65 traded right to the top of supply here at 76. Microsoft never got the 248, 249. Again, here's my point. AMD held three times if it builds below can flush. Right? Here's AMD. The video is strong. AMD is weak. Here's the bottom of the channel. One stocks at the top, one stocks at the bottom of the channel. This thing starts losing to 68.5, 68 level. It should get back down to 65.66. That's where they were coming for next week's explorations. Apple's still big level here. I like. Didn't get there. Tesla. Tesla was a nice little pop. Rejected this morning 179.38 if it continues. It can stretch. That's what Tesla did. Debt-Cat bounce. That's all it was. Debt-Cat bounce on Tesla. It took out right here. This 179.38 level and traded right. Clearly it's about supply 182.50. Not a big move at all. But that was a Debt-Cat bounce. NET failed. NET failed. 51 only went up to 30 cents before the stock went down to. Coin, I still like, did not get up there. And that is it. So that's it. We're kind of set up for next week. We know our levels. We have the game plan. We know the events that are coming up for this week. Again, notably is going to be the CPI number, which is violence. And oh, by the way, which is Powell, violence times 10. Guys, have a great weekend. If you are joining us in the webinar, I look forward to working with you. If you are coming aboard, use this weekend to look at the workshops. It's about eight, 10 hours of breaking down the PS theory. It's completely free and anybody has access to it. Again, our pivots for you. Pivots are not for everybody. But again, they're pretty cool and a lot of us like them. Guys, have a great night. Have a great weekend. I will see you all Monday. Take care.