 Hello, this is Fray Nolson, crop economist and marketing specialist for NDSU Extension. This is a soybean market update for the week of November 26 through the 30th, 2018. This week we'll review the expectations for soybean production in South America. This graph shows historical total soybean production for Brazil in the red line, Argentina in the black line, and the United States in the green line. I'm using the November USDA WASDE, or World Agricultural Supply Demand Estimate Values, because these are the reference points that many market analysts and traders currently use. The current USDA forecast for 2019 Brazilian soybean production is to increase about a half a percent from last year, even though harvested acreage are forecast to increase between 6 and 7 percent. The reason is that USDA is currently using a trend line yield for the 2019 values, while 2018 yields were well above average. In contrast, Argentine soybean production, which is the black line, is forecast to increase about 47 percent. The larger increase is due to the drought conditions that impacted yields last year. The current forecast for 2019 is nearly identical to the production two years ago in 2017. The current private estimates for Brazilian production are very close to the USDA values, but the private estimates for Argentine production are slightly above the USDA values. This is a map of the soybean-producing regions of Brazil. The darker the green color, the more tons of soybeans are produced. Please notice that the key northern-growing regions of Mato Grosso and Goyos raise approximately 40 percent of the country's soybeans, while the key southern-growing regions of Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul raise approximately a third or 33 percent of the soybeans. This map shows the most recent vegetative index for crops grown in Brazil relative to the five-year average. The map has been filtered so that non-crop vegetation has been removed, but includes all crops grown, not just soybeans. As you can see, the majority of Brazilian crops are scored better or much better than normal. There is one small region in southern Brazil that is scored as below average, but soybean planting hasn't been finished in that region. This next map is an estimate of the surface soil moisture available in the top meter of soil, or about the top three feet. Current soil moisture conditions are again rated very good, except for that small region along the southeastern coastline. This final map is an estimate of the subsurface soil moisture conditions. As you can see, the subsurface soil moisture levels are also very good, except for a growing region along the southeast coast. This suggests there will need to be an extended period of below-average rainfall to cause any kind of significant yield loss. Now we're going to shift our attention to Argentine soybean production. Once again, the darker the color, the more soybeans are produced within that region. Please note that the Argentine soybean production region is smaller and more concentrated than the Brazilian growing regions. The vegetative index relative to the five-year average is not as strong as Brazil, but better than the end of the growing season last year. Once again, this vegetative index has been filtered to include only crop acres and includes all crops, not just soybeans. There have been heavy rains across a large portion of the Argentine growing regions, which have improved soil moisture conditions. The majority of these rains occurred before soybean planting began. This map shows the estimated surface soil moisture conditions, again within the top meter, or about three feet of soil. Once again, soil moisture conditions have improved, but are still marginal. In contrast, the subsurface soil moisture conditions are estimated to be closer to normal. This suggests the ability of the crops to maintain some yield potential during short periods of dry conditions once the root system has been developed. So to briefly recap, the Brazilian soybean crop is currently in very good condition. Soybean planting started earlier than normal and planting progress has been faster than average. The current estimate is that 89% of the soybean crop has been planted versus about 81% planted at this time last year. The Argentine planting progress is near normal at 39% planted, about the same as this time last year. There's still a lot of growing season remaining, so markets will be watching the South American weather and crop development very, very closely. Weather and growing conditions in South America have become important factors in U.S. soybean prices, but traders are especially sensitive to these conditions this year, mainly because the large quantities of soybeans China is buying from Brazil. This concludes this week's update. Please feel free to contact me if you have any questions, and thanks for listening.