 There's a reason why Xtrades is currently the fastest growing application on the market for sharing financial ideas. With over $2.5 million paid in the last two years to contributors, users are flocking to see what trades the top traders on the leaderboard are sharing in real time. If you're looking to grow your reputation as a trader on the internet, or discuss your trading ideas with other reputable investors, click the link below and get connected with the trading mentor today, completely free of charge. Alright, what's up everybody? This is Alex from Xtrades back to you with another weekly trade ideas list. I hope everybody had a wonderful trading week last week. Got some good trades in at a good week, maybe you're enjoying your holiday. This week we do have a short week coming up, so it could be relatively quiet in the markets. Since we have Thanksgiving on Thursday, some people even start their holidays a little bit early. They'll take the whole week off. If you didn't last week, we had some amazing setups. Every single one paid. We're looking at a majority cause on everything. I think the one thing that didn't have as good a fall through as everything else was UNG, just due to warmer weather and a couple storage readings that came in a little bit bearish for natural gas. But overall, I went ahead and added more on UNG for a longer term swing. But the first day on Monday, huge day for natural gas, 7%. All the other setups as well had huge upside. It was just overall a really good week for the trade ideas list, for day trading, for everything. CPI came in pretty soft. Market fund that very bullish yields came down aggressively, bonds ripped, everything. Even the dollar came down aggressively, so it was a very good week for the stock market last week. This week for economic data, you could see it's actually kind of relatively quiet for Tuesday. We do have existing home sales and also the Fed minutes from the last FOMC meeting. So I'd say the minutes are probably going to be the most important of the week, just in case that anybody missed anything from the FOMC press conference, they're going to want to see if they missed anything written in black and white from the minutes. So this will drop on the Fed website at 2pm and it can cost some volatility. Could be a nothing bigger, but who knows, it just depends. And then Wednesday, just the usual initial jobless claims, durable goods orders. And then most importantly, consumer sentiment at 10. This is probably going to move the market the most. Durable goods orders is always a hit or miss as well as the initial jobless claims always just depends on how extreme the readings are. Then of course, Thursday, November 23rd, markets are closed. And then Friday, this could be actually a pretty big one. We have the S&P Flash US Services PMI and also S&P Flash US Manufacturing PMI. So definitely want to pay attention to this on Friday. This would probably be one of the most important data sets of the week. Otherwise, I'd say consumer sentiment, the minutes and existing home sales, pay attention to those plus the PMIs. So that's for the economic calendar, relatively quiet, nothing too major, but definitely a couple that could move us. And for seasonality, this week, we're going to have something different. I found this on the Almanac Traders Twitter. And I buy a copy of his Almanac every single year. I love his stuff. This is a seasonality chart for November. Recent 21 years worth of data from 2002 up into 2022. And you can see it, we kind of hit that midpoint of the month when we were looking at the previous seasonality chart. Once we get to that midpoint, we kind of stall out. As you can see here, every single index kind of slows down a little bit. And then you get that dip towards somewhat at the end of the month. And then towards the actual end of the month is when you start seeing that rip up. So on Friday, we just had the most recent monthly options expiration on 11.17. You can see I'm highlighting, which brings us into 11.20 here coming up. So we're at this exact spot right here. It looks like after the 20th is kind of when we started seeing things curl up a bit. With the exception to maybe the pre-election years, you can see these dotted lines. These are pre-election years for seasonality. They kind of have a different outcome compared to just the regular seasonality where it starts going up after the 20th. It kind of does stall out a little bit on pre-election years. So that's something to consider. But either way, it looks like on the 24th, everything, despite pre-election years, despite just regular seasonality, everything kind of starts curling up up into the end of the month for November. So definitely want to be careful shorting this market, especially with seasonality. You got a low VIX, all types of other stuff. Just be careful. It looks like the spy, which we will go over later. We're kind of at a stall out point at a big resistance, stuck within a range as well. At least three or four days worth of chop after the CPI. We kind of just stalled out. So got to be careful with that. But seasonality kind of a little bit promising here for the wrap up at the end of the month. So we'll see how that goes. But just consider that coming into the 20th year. So we're in this exact spot right here and on to the setups here. For our first one, we're going over Exxon. This is energy. This is going to move with CVX and overall the energy sectors. You could track XLE as well. For Exxon here, you can see it's actually poking out of the downtrend line. You got to test one, test two, test three. Looks like a test for rejection as well. Finally poked out just a little bit and not trying to get over 105, which is also a previous support right here. It's got a base where it bounced right there, base where it bounced right there. So as long as you're staying over that 104 80s to 105, good chance that you can start to curl up here. Maybe head back to this little spot right here where it rejected prior. It's going to be a 109 19 probably rounded up to 110 flat. And that's probably the max upside I'd be looking for personally. We got to see a get over that first focus for this week for Exxon. Looking at calls, unless of course it starts going back within the downtrend line where it could invalidate that thesis. As long as it's staying outside of this, there's a good chance it could pop back up. And we saw that with WFC two weeks ago, where the week after we were looking at it, it actually didn't have its breakout until the week after we were paying attention to it. So it just ripped last week. So it just took a couple of weeks. And you know, these kind of breakouts can take a little bit. So don't be discouraged if it doesn't just rip up instantly when it breaks out. Maybe by time on your contracts, give us some time to work around. And then eventually you can see it kind of go back in your favor. But if it starts falling back within the downtrend, that's kind of your signal to maybe look elsewhere. So that's for Exxon looking at calls. Make sure it stays over 104 83 and the downtrend line. Make sure it stays broken out and it could head up to 109 19. All right. Next, we're going into AB and B. So we actually had this in our focus a couple of weeks ago as well. Is in the same list as WFC. So made its way back to the list here. But actually this time, I finally started getting over the 122 80, which in our previous video from two weeks ago, we're looking for a move over 122 80, or at least looking that as a level that it could get bullish over. And you can see on Tuesday here after CPI, really big day, plus 6.3 percent. And then had another rip up here, almost up to 132 resistance that we were looking for a couple of weeks ago. So this is the 132 we're looking for overall. Got really close from a couple of weeks ago. So really nice run up. But what I like here is that I pull back and now we have a bunch of moving average confluence. You can see we got the red and green dots here, which is the 200 EMA. And then also this one right here is the 50 EMA. So they're both confluent with each other, literally at the same exact spot. And you got your nine and twenty ones down here. So this is your nine and twenty ones, two hundred and fifty. And it's back testing right here. So it's trying to hold as a higher low, which could end up having a base. And you can see it head back up to 132 78. If it holds this higher low and moving average as a base, it holds both of them and maybe even holds the nine and twenty one. If you back test that, you can still see that move up to 132 78. Technically, it's in an uptrend now, finally getting over those moving averages after at least a couple of weeks of training under now back over those plus the 200 EMA plus the 50 back testing those really nice higher low. Maybe it could rip off here, head up to 132 78. As long as it's staying over 122 80, which is this structure right here. I feel pretty bullish about AB and B. You got multiple tests, previous support, this area right here. You got a big resistance here, slight resistance here. Nice breakout point right there. So that's why 122 80 is so important. Want to see a staying over that as well as staying over the moving averages like I just showed you. So you got your 250. Make sure staying up that and you can see 132 78. So AB and B looking at calls, let the moving averages guide you. Use 122 80 is kind of your must hold point. It starts going back under 122 80 and kind of toss the idea out the window, which a lot of our ideas have been hidden lately, a lot more been winning than losing. So I'm just waiting for a week where it's not going to work as well for the bulls. Obviously, it's going to come eventually. It can't always just have a good week or have good callouts or ideas. Eventually, the market's going to invalidate one of your thesis. This has got to be careful with that. But AB and B stay confident over 122 80. Make sure it holds the moving averages. You can see that move up to 132 78. All right. And last but not least for individual tickers looking at Baba here. Just had earnings a couple of days ago. Gapped down almost 10 percent. This one's going to be simple. You need to see it back over 77 77. That's literally the low. So seven seven seven seven quadruple sevens. Maybe that's a lucky level. Usually it's triple sevens that are lucky, but maybe this quadruple sevens could also be lucky. So this is a major low from May 23, 2023. And needs to reclaim back over that. If I start reclaiming back over that, I feel like it's going to work its way back up to the gap. Obviously with Baba, lots of overnight moves. There's going to be lots of gap ups and gap downs just due to time differences in China and Baba does trade on the Hong Kong exchange. So need to see it back over this low here that seven seven or quadruple seven. And once it starts reclaiming and closing back over that with a one day bar, I feel good about it heading back up to the gap. Maybe get filled back up to the upside as well as this is like almost like a 2014 valuation. I'm pretty sure this is like the same level they IPO that except they're bringing in way more revenue than they were back when they IPOed in 2014 or whatever it was. And there's a lot of people paying attention to that valuation in comparison on Twitter, especially lots of big names who post financial news kind of paying attention to that valuation from 2014 to now comparing their revenues. This is almost a discount. So that's one way to look at it. Obviously, you could buy time, be safe because there's kind of some free space down here right if it doesn't get back over that that quadruple seven level here. You got another base right here. I guess you could watch. So maybe it could support there at seventy four sixty eight comes from right here. And then it's pretty much just all like free space down to this low. Probably just sixty flat or something like that. So it really needs to get back over that low. We should originate some right here. They can get back over that. They could fill that gap back up. Probably a little downtrend line here as well. You could pay attention to it's kind of old. All right, I get already broke out, already had a nice kind of little short term breakout and now it's back within. I guess you could maybe watch that, but I personally would just pay attention to the quadruple seven level, which is as low. They could start closing back over, probably start seeing it make its way and try to fill this gap back up. So by time on contracts, maybe be patient with it. If you want to wait for it to get back in the gap, you can keep it that simple. Wait for it to start entering and closing inside the gap. It's going to be at eighty seventy seven. You can even make a line, hit alert and we'll name a gap. Simple as that. I want to just wait for that if you want to do that. But I really like it. It starts reclaiming back over that quadruple seven level. I like it for some upside. So it's for Baba looking at calls, be patient and remember trades in different time zones. So you're going to have a lot of gap ups and downs, a little bit riskier. All right, and on to the indexes last week for spy. We were focused on this downtrend line. I mentioned I needed to get over this downtrend line. I needed to break out of that pretty much to get up to four forty three. And I actually gapped right over that. So it didn't even give you really a chance to answer on the breakout or anything like that, because we had CP on Tuesday and it was a soft print. Mark, I liked it. I mentioned if you got over this supply right here that your free space is up to the next supply, which is, you know, four forty nine. So we did get that. So it got back over and got a couple of nice points up into supply. And that's where we stalled out last week. And now we do have this new gap open, which I really don't like. Lots of times gaps will try to fill at least 80 percent of them, I would say feel and a lot of the trading community and overall Wall Street kind of agrees on that number. It's kind of just a talked about number. About 80 percent of gaps do get filled, whether up or down. So I need to be careful with that, as well as we're stalling out at four fifty one eight here, which is the top of supply. It really needs to get over that four fifty one. If it gets over four fifty one eight and starts closing over that. That's your free space up to four fifty three sixty seven, which is this peak right here. So that's all trading is just trying to find those free spaces. Last week, your free space was, you know, over this supply that we focused on. So if I got over that supply, your free space is up to four forty nine. And now that we cleared those, we're at the next supply. I need to get over this point to get to this point. That's your free space. And then there's even a gap above that four fifty three sixty seven. So if it can get over that, this gap could feel. And honestly, I could see it stalling out about there. I really couldn't see it higher than, you know, it's was that July August highs. That's where it kind of gets a little bit risky at four sixty or right around that area. So it really needs to get over that. Otherwise, if it starts closing under this and it keeps stalling out of this, it could try to head back down a little bit. Although I don't feel that great about it falling just due to VIX is super low. It's closing, you know, near loads, almost at a triple bottom support. And when the VIX gets this low, it's really hard to short. So unless you buy time, be patient. You have the market time to fart around in a low volatility environment. You know, you're going to be punching yourself in the head pretty much trying to short this market. It's very risky. But this 451, I mean, this 45108, it does have potential. Like I said, it's a big supply zone all the way from September as well. It's a pretty nice peak. I mean, this area is, I mean, you could argue it's kind of getting to that overvalued territory on the short term as well as overbought as well. So like I said, it needs to get over that 45108, which is a clear peak. It just keeps staying under it and it's failing to break out of this. It could have just a little bit lower. And then obviously, I really wouldn't feel good about going short in this market until it starts entering inside the gap. It'd be a lot easier to trade puts once it's inside the gap because it'd probably accelerate faster. Sellers kind of come in and buyers panic when it starts entering the gap because there's no liquidity here. So it's fast trading in these gaps. So that's for spy. 45108 is your focus. You need to break over to that. Your next level is 45367 plus the gap, which is unfilled. This is an unfilled gap. And as well, like I said, if it keeps stalling out here, you're not getting any signal of a breakout that could be a sign of short term resistance, and it probably will try to come back down to the gap support about 446 at least. You could even mark the gap, the start of it. If you want to watch that as a support or a max low, I guess, if it stalls out here, 440609 is that gap support or the opening low from Tuesday, which is a CPI report. So that's your levels of focus, 440609. If it, excuse me, downside, which I don't feel that great about. And then 45108 needs a break over that to get over to 45367 plus the gap. All right. And for QQQ, similar story, except QQQ was already broken out. Right. We closed this big daily bar on Friday, opened up Monday with this inside bar. And as well, I was focused on this 38083. We were just too close to resistance for me to want to go long, which in hindsight, I mean, I missed out on a nice rally on Tuesday on the QQQ, but I had other stuff that I was trading anyways that I had to pretty good on. So I didn't need to buy the QQQ near 380 resistance, you know, to get paid and found other stuff this week. We did go ahead and clear that 383 and then above 383 takes you into 38488 plus the 38798. Those are your two above resistances. If it broke over 380 and it wasn't able to do that. And now we're just at a major stallout point, obviously needs to get over 388 to kind of get up to those major highs and start breaking out and maybe get back to the all time high level. She's just insane to be saying out loud, but that is the level. Needs to get over 388 as well as this. This is just a big resistance, guys. I mean, I wouldn't want to buy calls here. Not until at least it breaks over, makes a base. Once you start seeing a solid base, get made on 388, then you can kind of buy the dips at the higher lows and stuff like that. If it seems like it's holding over that, but you don't want to just buy straight into resistance, maybe with Nvidia earnings coming up, you know, they could just blast the market higher for all we know. But still, just risky, not my idea. I wouldn't have bought a 380. I wouldn't have bought a 384.88 and I wouldn't have bought a 387 either. These resistance points just, I don't know, I didn't like it. Just too risky. The risk for rug pulling is just way higher. I like to add at the moving averages, add on red days, anything with a discount really that is cheaper and it lowers your drawdown risk. If you buy on the dips rather than buying these breakouts and getting caught in the accumulation phase and stuff like that. So that's pretty much it for QQQ. I mean, it's still bullish, but we are at a stallout point. So it needs to get over 388. If 388 stalls out, it's the same thing. It would need to get under 384.88. So I need to get under this peak to see you downside and start entering the gap. And then it also need to get under 383 as well. So it's just the same levels of focus. Pretty much if it rejects 388, it takes you down to 384.88, 388. If 384.88 fails, it takes you down to 383. Simple as that. And it's just these three peaks right here. You got peak one, peak two, peak three. And that's pretty much your levels of focus. And then it'll need to break over 388 for upside. So no setup that I like on it really. Unfortunately, I like the individual tickers a little bit better. There's a lot better things to be looking at than the indexes, especially with volatility contracting. They're fine a day trade, but in terms of daily levels and swings, I just don't like shorts here and I don't like longs here as well for swing trades. So that's for QQQ. Just be cautious. 388 break needed for both as well as a 388 rejection or a 384.88 flush for the bears to start entering that gap. And on to the VIX. Really, it didn't have that much of a change from last week. So Friday we closed relatively low at, what was that close, 14.18. And then this Friday we closed at 13.81. So it didn't close too much lower than where it did last Friday. But the thing is, is it closed under that 20.21 low at 14.10, which is what we've been looking for. Because it's been stalling out at this 14.10. It did it on Thursday, closed back over it. And now we finally got that close under the 14.10, which is a good sign. This is a pretty bullish signal, at least to head down to 12.73. And if the VIX is going to go down this low, that could be a good setup for the spy, because obviously the VIX and the S&P or the spy are connected. They basically inverse each other. This is your reading for volatility at least 30 days out. I believe it takes SPX options and you get volatility readings for either 27 to 34 days or something like that. I just say it's about 30 days. So it's about 30 days of volatility that you're measuring on the VIX. And right now it's just stupid low guys, but this signal under 14.10, I really liked it on Friday. It's pretty much a straight shot down to the 12.73, which is pretty bullish for spy. And like I said, spy will need to get over that 451 area. So if it does get over that 451 area, I'd feel good about that move up to 453, which is, I mean, it's only like $2.50, but with volatility is this low, that'll be a pretty nice move if you trade the spy. And that's really it for the VIX guys. I mean, it's the same thing. Last week we were looking for either this close under the 14.10s or we're looking for a close back over the 15.50s for a real volatility signal. And once we start closing back over 15.50s, that takes you up to 17, 18.80, et cetera. And we did get the 14.10 close. So relatively bullish, I think for the indexes, the volatility closed under that major 2021 low. And now it can maybe head back down to the 12.73, which is this triple bottom support. So that's all I really got this week. Seems like a pretty clear shot down. Obviously, if it starts getting back over the 14.10 and closing back over the 14.60 mark, which 14.60 comes from this peak over here, that'd also be a signal that volatility could be coming back up. But my major point that I'm looking for, like I said, I'm not going to be that bearish until we start getting over the 15.53. And we've covered this in basically every recent video. Anything you see with a circle or an arrow is a major volatility point, some type of extreme reading, right? You got a major low, major rejection, major rejection, major low, major bounce, any volatility extreme. I have marked with a circle and an arrow and all three of these, these lows right here, these are major volatility extremes. And they've held in a very resilient manner. So that's why I can't see below the 12.73, but I can't see down to the 12.73 for right now. Since we did get that close under the 14.10, that's pretty good signal. Obviously, I mean, it could bounce. It's not just going to always just go straight to your level. I mean, it could stop early. It could stop at the 13.50s for all you know, but that's all you want to pay attention to the close. So as long as it's staying under the 14.10s and it's not closing back over that, you can feel good about it. Move back down to 12.73, which is bullish for the market. Simple as that. And then don't get too bearish until we start getting back over the 14.60 and 15.50s mark. And that's your volatility signals, guys. I hope you guys enjoyed this video. Make sure you like, comment, and subscribe to our Xtreys YouTube channel. I love you guys. I'm going to go ahead and get this chopped up, edited and sent out and I'm out.