 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We crown champions in bold the NBA and the NHL this week And I think that as we transition now into the summer months We've got some time to finally focus on the NFL and talk about the futures market there We have not discussed Super Bowl 53 betting yet here on the show We've talked some wind totals and talked about some tough schedules and stuff like that We have not actually dug into the futures market and identified Which teams great out well and could potentially have the upside to win the whole bang bang That's what we're gonna do here today is outline What my numbers are saying about this year's Super Bowl candidates the teams that could potentially have the upside to win it all And outline where I think the best bets are over at Fandall sports But that is our job for today to dig into the futures market and let you know which teams I like most to win Super Bowl 53 welcome on into covering the spread That's right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonness. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire here to dig in to the Super Bowl 53 futures market and outline Where I am seeing value right now over at Fandall sportsbook. I will dig into three teams We're not gonna recommend all three teams necessarily but outline my thoughts on them Why they interest me the most and what to do with them based on the current odds over at Fandall sportsbook We'll do all that here in just one second a first-day reminder to make sure you're subscribed to Covering the spread wherever you get your podcast. 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This is a different discussion because it does require a lot of upside To win the whole dang thing. So I'm gonna dig into what my numbers say right now And we'll talk about what my power rankings have and then we'll see if there's any value right now over at Fandall sportsbook in my power rankings The chiefs are in a tier of their own that is they are first by a wide margin That's both in terms of the power ranking and in terms of their wind totals So accounting for schedule the chiefs number one by a wide margin I've got them at 12 wins for this year So right in line with the market there they are at 11 and a half wins with minus 134 on the over So I think that's pretty fair honestly They're the only team I have projected to win more than 10.8 games this year Which puts them in a good position to claim the bye week and win the AFC That's a huge advantage and it does put them in a great spot here The chiefs are six to one to win Super Bowl 53 over at Fandall sportsbook the NFL is a Chaotic league where you don't see dynasties for injuries can happen Patrick Mahomes could get her Travis Kelsey could get her and all these things could definitely Impact that so it's tough to weigh six to one on such a chaotic league But the chiefs have been to five consecutive AFC championships They've won three of those and they've won two Super Bowls in this band. I like what they've done the past calendar year or past calendar 15 months to build this roster to compete for the long call they were able to reload on the fly by Tradingway Tyree kill using those those resources on defense to improve there and especially as last year went along We saw a defense get a lot better and I think that makes sense given how young it was They would trend up as the year goes along So I don't have a model to project out of teams Super Bowl odds. I've got wind totals I've got a power ranking I'm doing this based on those numbers and kind of using that to identify Okay, do I think this team is a value and I don't like doing that I'd prefer the NASCAR model where I've got actual win odds stuff like that MLB these things I prefer doing it this way Which is why I don't tend to talk about these as often But I don't think it's absurd to bet the cheese at six to one to win it all again The implied odds there 14.3 percent, which is very high But I don't think it's totally off given what they've shown us so far The one issue that we could have here is that you're locking up bankroll for eight months And in order to justify doing that you want a big edge because let's say the money you're gonna put on the chiefs win at all at six to one You could take that money and put it in like, you know a long-term investment You could you could find other routes for that money as opposed to allowing Sportsbook of your choice to have it in their bank account until February So there actually is a downside to locking up bankroll for this long And you do want a bigger edge to justify doing that I think that's a very good argument against betting the cheese. So personally, I have not bet them Probably not going to as of right now. I think you also consider The way the market is right now will the cheese get shorter than six to one before September I think barring a an injury to a Quarterback like Josh Allen Joe burrow Jalen hurts probably not So I think you're safe. You like the chiefs I might hold off maybe that them before week one because I'm not sure they'll get a lot shorter than six to one So I think you should be okay there. It locks up bankroll for a shorter amount of time So at least as of right now that she's not a team I see myself betting to win the whole thing despite the fact I think six to one is probably a pretty fair offer One area where my numbers disagree with the market is on who is second in the AFC The market has the bills there. They are nine to one to win the Super Bowl I've got the bangles seconds and they're ten to one and I think those numbers should be flip flop personally This is not as Stefan digs was upset for a day thing. I don't care about that. That's probably gonna be fine. I Think the the big Counterpoint here to being high the Bengals because I feel like the pitch for them is pretty obvious given They've been to consecutive AFC championships stuff like that The counterpoint would be the strength of the divisions because the Bengals are going through the Ravens the Browns and the Steelers I think the Steelers are pretty decent honestly given their defense Given the fact that he did make some gains in the second half of the year with Kenny Pickett They did improve as he went along. So I do like the Steelers the Browns. We'll talk about here in a little bit actually and The Ravens have Lamar Jackson. He is happy. He is healthy. He is content. That is a pretty dangerous division but I actually have the bills as having a tougher schedule than the Bengals this year if I take my power ranking and Just apply it. I'd have the bills expected win total at 10.6 So not accounting for the teams they face how they face and stuff like that Expected win total for the bills based on their power ranking alone is 10.6 But once you put in their actual schedule, the bills come out at 10.2 wins based on my numbers The Bengals are exactly at expectation So they actually have an easier road than the bills do the NS the AFC North faces the AFC South this year and the NSC West the NSC West is a softer division than typically is so They actually had a pretty easy road whereas a relatively easy road whereas the bills now face Aaron Rodgers Hopefully a healthy to a tongue of a loa as well. So the AFC East is tough and The perception I think is not caught up to reality in that regard To me that says the Bengals should be number two both in the power rankings and in Super Bowl odds for the conference So there are 10 to 1 right now. That's nine point one percent implied odds I think that's a fair value if you're interested now 10 to 1 is still not a super short number But it's also five implied percentage points lower than what the chiefs are at So I can better justify betting the Bengals right now a 10 to 1 then I came the chiefs at 6 to 1 simply again from the Perspective of do you want to lock up bankroll for that long allow the sportsbook to use this as a loan for that long? I think I'd be more willing to do that with the Bengals than with the chiefs Now if you're looking for a longer shot because neither the chiefs of the Bengals are that I think an obvious archetype emerges looking back For the past two years the two surprise teams Maybe not surprised everyone but surprises to a lot of the market were the Bengals and the Eagles the Bengals Their win total entry in 2021 was six and a half which I thought was too low But I also had them I think at seven and a half wins So I wasn't I was only a win above market not super high I should have been higher on them So even I underestimated the Bengals despite being above market on them the Eagles were higher Then six and a half win total there was a nine They were a nine and a half either the 9.8 wins so above the market there But not by a whole lot the common thread between those two teams is that they both got big spikes and passing efficiency from the quarterbacks If you look at the top of the odds board It's not entirely sorted by projected passing efficiency But it is pretty close chiefs have my homes Eagles have hurts bills are third that got Josh Allen Bengals have Joe burrow the 49ers have Kyle Shanahan and Constantly efficient passing offense and it's back Prescott Aaron Rodgers So basically the most efficient passing offenses are at the top of the odds board If you want an exception and a team that a team that can be a long shot and emerge you probably need them to Exceed their projected passing efficiency So to me that's what I'm looking for and I'm trying to bet a long shot to win Super Bowl Is I want a team that I think can be efficient in that regard and to me the team that best fits that is the Cleveland Browns They are 28 to 1 to win Super Bowl 53 that ranks 13th among all teams And it is ninth among teams in the AFC in my power rankings I have actually got the Browns seventh overall and fourth among AFC teams behind just the three powerhouses of the chiefs The Bengals and the builds that might be too high I think that's entirely possible because there are some very good teams in that conference that I am maybe too low Unlike teams that are caught their own division like the Baltimore Ravens I could see that argument for sure. Maybe the Chargers in that discussion too. Maybe I'm too low on those teams but Here's the pitch here for the Browns and the pitch it to me is I Expect them to be more efficient with the Sean Watson this year than they were last year The last full season for to Sean Watson was 2020 in that year Houston went 4 and 12 But Watson ranked fifth in total net expected points That's a number of fires EPA metrics. So accounting for his rushing He had the fifth most total net expected points in the entire league He was fifth in total in any people drop-backs not just the rushing the passing was also pretty efficient when you account for it on a per Drop-back basis, so it was not just because Houston was trailing the entire year and jacking up volume and stuff like that He was very efficient in both regards in 2019 Watson fifth in total NEP 11th in EPA per in NEP per drop-back Last year obviously was bad because you look at him Watson a per drop-back basis His efficiency was worse than Carson Wentz Carson Wentz cannot buy a job right now And I'm talking about to Sean Watson to win the Super Bowl But we know that he can be that efficient Kevin Sifansky made you Kobe preset efficient before Watson came in He made Baker Mayfield look good for entire seasons So I have faith in this this this offensive coaching staff. I have faith in Kevin Sifansky faith in the system to Amplify passing efficiency here. I'm not as high on the Browns past catchers as a lot of people are I think a Mara Cooper spine Definitely okay there. I think Donovan people's Jones a bit underrated They did add Elijah Moore. I think that's a large part of why I'm not as high in their past catchers as others There's some pretty big red flags there So I'm not as high in their past catchers as some but it's not a terrible group by any means the offensive line here is pretty solid And having Nick Chubb is never going to be a bad thing. Yeah I mean, we're not gonna prioritize rushing efficiency But if you're gonna give it to us on a platter with arguably the best running back from a rushing perspective in football Not gonna say no on defense. They've got talent. They've got some guys a lot of speed. They got Miles Garrett That's always fun and adding Jim Schwartz into the fold the defensive coordinator Could better help that talent on defense shine through so basically To me the Browns have upside in all the key areas They can get a good defensive passing efficiency via Miles Garrett that's secondary and they can go get good offensive passing efficiency Via to Sean Watson in the passing game So if you want a long shot, I think the Browns are your best bet as mentioned It's tough to go with another AFC North team because the division is so tough They're probably gonna have to come through a wild card spot given I like the Bengals a lot But again, they face the NFC West they get Arizona. They get the Rams who are down I'm not a sign the Seahawks is a lot of people are and the 49ers, you know quarterback is definitely up in the air there and then they get the AFC South after that the best argument against the Browns is not wanting to root for the Browns given the very credible accusations of sexual assault and harassment against Sean Watson, I think that is a very fair argument and one I feel myself as well. So It's hard to want players like that to succeed and inherently if you're betting them You are going to root for them to win and that doesn't feel great. It feels pretty icky So I think that's the best argument against the Browns winning Super Bowl is you just don't want to root for them I get that and fully agree if we're looking just for teams with building blocks though to make a big leap and Potentially contend for a Super Bowl the Browns are a team that do check those boxes for me. So Strictly from a football perspective I think the Browns are the best long shot to win Super Bowl 53 28 to 1 are the rods over a fan dual sportsbook. I also would say you're looking at other markets Maybe less upside markets the Browns plus 104 to win to make the playoffs I think that's a pretty fair market as well. So if you don't want to necessarily go with the full upside to win Super Bowl I think that the to make the playoffs a number plus 104 also pretty good just based on again upside and key areas The the the schedule not as difficult maybe as perception despite the division being very tough I think that all that does align to make the Browns a quality option the futures market both make the playoffs and Twin the Super Bowl at 28 to 1 that is all that we have here for today on covering the spread Again, it's a pretty fun markets to look at Super Bowl to try to identify teams that have some upside to potentially surprise again I don't think the chiefs of the worst bet just not my personal style to lock up bankroll that long when the edge is Probably pretty minimal in that regard, but the Bengals and Browns both pretty enticing teams to me So I guess we are all on the AFC North for this year We'll be back once again tomorrow here on the show talking to pitching ninja Rob Freeman breaking down some strikeout props He likes over at Fandall's sportsbook and also talking about that market Fandall has for the pitcher to lead the slate in strikeouts Get that by subscribing to covering the spread on your podcast platform of choice and also checking us out over on the Fandall YouTube page as well. If you've got questions for me I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J I M S A N M E S want to thank you all for tuning in for today Good luck to you with your bets whether it be for baseball the US Open whatever it may be for today We'll talk to you once again tomorrow. This has been covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network