 Welcome to Digital Asset News or Dan for short. My name is Rob. And today we're going to talk about a couple of factors that have come in, PPI numbers came in, they were a little bit hotter than expected. Then we're going to take a look at the Fed, what the Fed pivot actually is, and how there's some data that takes a look at it and says that even when the Fed does pivot, it doesn't really make a difference for quite some time. And then we're going to go over all those things, macroeconomics, then we're going to get to the good news, which is just how I see things. So first things first, welcome. Appreciate everybody stopping by. And as you may have seen over Twitter or YouTube or wherever you get your news from, if it's me today, PPI numbers came in a little bit hot, hotter than expected. That was going to be 0.2%. And as a reminder, these are the producer price index. And tomorrow we'll get the consumer price index. The producers are the people that actually buy and sell things as far as like materials, energy, all those sources. And of course the consumer price index is what we have to pay. So this is just a indicator as to what the CPI could potentially be tomorrow. And if you think about it, well, it makes sense it'll probably be a little bit high because PPI is high. And of course if the producers have to pay a little more, we probably have to pay a little more. So we're at 0.4%. The expectation was 0.2%. That was the forecast, came up a little bit hotter than what then expected. And we can break it down here that the final demand as far as this is September 2022, even though we're in October, gotta take a month to look back. Final demands, 0.4. Foods was plus 1.2. Final demand services, negative 0.2 for transportation. That's great. Plus 0.1 for processed goods. Plus 0.3 for unprocessed goods. Even intermediate demand, I don't know what that part is. Goods, that's the most important. Negative 2% for gasoline. 0.1% up for motor vehicles, pharmaceutical prep, industrial chem, I mean just on and on. Steel mill products, down 6.7%. That's good, diesel fuel of 9% and so on and so forth. So I link this in the description. You can take a look at what those PPI numbers are. And as a reminder, these are, the PPI numbers are just what they are, the producer price index. But if we take a look at what we're trying to do, or what the Fed is trying to do, not what I'm trying to do. I'm just trying to make good investments. The Fed is trying to squash demand. And how do they do that by raising interest rates? Because of the inflation so high. But there's a great website, it's called Trueflation.com. There's also a link in the description as well. And what they do is they use Chainlink as an oracle to pull in outside data to get real-time data to show you what's going on with inflation. I wish the Fed would actually use this, that'd be nice. But you can see that over time, the inflation rate, and this takes a look at food and non-alcoholic beverages, housing, transport utilities, health and so on and so forth. And you can see that over time, we've actually, the Fed has done its job. It's just that I don't know if it's looking at the right data. Back in March, we were almost at 12%. So it was not transitory. As it goes down, we can see that right now, we're doing pretty good. I mean, 8%, I mean, that's not ideal, but it has gone down to where it's been. And maybe if we just keep on the same course, we can. I don't think the Fed's gonna do that. I think they're gonna raise rates tomorrow, or when the CPI numbers come out, but we will see. And also, unfortunately for our partners in UK, it's not looking too hot for you guys, as inflation just keeps going up and up and up. And I think one of those big things could be transportation utilities, weesh, utilities, look at that. That's an amazing amount. So that is what is going on. So expect some volatility, even though today it's kind of odd. We were down a little bit in the crypto market, but for the NASDAQ, it has to be 500. They're like, we don't care. Maybe this is all priced in like people say, we will see. And if you wanna get a grasp of as far as like what the Fed pivot is and what they're trying to do and the data they're looking at, we, there was a great interview with Mary Daly. She is the San Francisco Fed president, and she pretty much just laid it out what they're doing as far as like the documents they're looking at, the numbers that they're looking at. And she's talking about how they're not looking retroactively. They're looking for it, which I kind of have to doubt here, but the Fed pivot is just that is what they're, we're hoping that the Fed will pivot because the Fed pivots, that means that they were, instead of increasing interest rates, they will become stagnant, not raise or decrease. That is what the Fed pivot all is about. And that just takes care of the first part, the PPI numbers. So the next part is this, the Fed pivot, why it won't take immediate effects. And I need to, and this is gonna be a little tricky. So hang with me for a second. First of all, actually that Mary Daly video, the Fed president, there's a link in the description you can find that to that video. It was a long, it was like a 30 minute interview, but I chopped it down in 12 minutes just to give you guys the highlights. But there was a piece that came out about the Fed pivots. When the Fed pivots stock crash a little bit more. And not that everything remains the same. I know I'm always talking about this, you know, people say this time is different. It's never really different. Although, if we take a look at the macro events, if we take a look at years, not weeks, it really is the same thing, just repeating again and again and again. But from weeks to week, from a small time frame, there are some variances. And what I wanna focus on is first, this great financial crisis. This is between 2007, 2009. There's a lot of things going on at that time. There was high inflation, there was default swaps, there was the housing market crash. And we felt that for quite some time. And between this timeframe, even when the Fed pivoted, when they stopped raising rates, it took 18 months to the bottom. The dot com bubble crash, I mean 2002, after the Fed pivoted, it took 21 months to actually start hitting the bottom and go back up. Golf of Recession, 890, 90, took 16 months. Double dip recession, 81, 82, 13 months. 1973 recession, took 11 months. And 1969, not bad, three months from the time when the Fed actually pivoted. So, if we're looking at these time frames, this could be kind of concerning about how long it can be. And what we're talking about here, let's just take this part here. August, 2007, 2009, the great financial crisis. So, first I need to back up. Because if we're taking a look at August, 2007, let's back it up all the way to 2004. And what I wanna take a look at is the federal funds. Federal funds are effective rate is just an average to the actual federal funds rate. And you can see here that they started to increase the funds rate, starting around 2004, June 2004, just like what they're doing now. They're raising rates because they wanna squash inflation. What was happening around June 2004? Well, if we take a look, and this is also linked in the description. In 2004, this is the inflation rate. I don't know if you can see this that well. It's a lot of numbers here. 2004, this is January, 1.9, not bad. That's exactly what we want, 1.9, 1.7. And all of a sudden it's hard to go up 2.3313, that's a little bit hot. So, January, February, March, April, May, June, July. And you start to get a bunch of threes. So, we take a look back here. The federal funds, what happened here? April, 2004, May, June, July. And they started to raise the rates because they're like, we don't like these numbers, these inflation numbers. And they started to raise. And then in 2005, it still took them time. Inflation was threes, two eight, two five, not too bad, three, six, four, seven, 4.3, 3.5, 3.4. 2006, four is three, six, dah, dah, dah. And then right around January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October? August, September, October. It started to really go down 2.1, 1.3, 2.0, not too bad. 2006, there's still a little bit of problems here. So, what happened back over here? 2006, February, March, April, May, June, July. I said, okay, let's take our foot off the gas. July, 2006, okay, inflation's going down. Let's just become stagnant. And they pivoted right here, July, 2007 to August, 2007. What happened over here? August, 2007, January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, it was 2.0. Like, okay, things are going good, we'll be okay. They pivoted and then here's what happened. They started to reduce the rates and that was okay. And then there's this gray area. I'll get to that in a second. But what happened around December, 2007? Well, we'll take a look at the S&P 500. In December, 2007, this is the historical trend of the S&P 500. And you can just see how much it just went down and down and down. Again, what is this gray bar right here? Well, it's very simple. That's a recession. So, Q4, 2007, that's when officially the recession started. I thought it was, I think it started before that. But even when the Fed pivoted, and this is just one example I'm giving you, you can take a look at all the other ones down here and verify it. But even when the Fed pivoted, how long did it take to get back up? 2009. So again, that would be in line over here, February, 2009. Took 18 months for the bottom, then to actually recover. And then more bad news, folks. This is from Nicholas Merton. I believe he's, that's Data Dash. Good guy, great channel. I've watched it every so often. And he says, hey, for the first time in 14 years, the NASDAQ composite had a weekly close below 200-week moving average. Let me say that again. For the first time in 14 years, the NASDAQ had a weekly close below 200-week moving average. This was a pivotal moment for the two prior 50 to 80% bear markets in 2000 and 2008. Bitcoin has lived through that, but it'll live through it, it'll go through it. So here's 2000, and look what happened to the S&P. Burp, or NASDAQ, excuse me. Here's 2008, and look what happened. Burp went down farther. And here we are in October, 2022. So if history repeats itself, which it may not be perfect, I don't know how long we're gonna go, we could see a little bit more of a downside. So having said all that, remember, there's little differences between that and the macro events that happened back then. I mean, our inflation rate's a little bit higher, that's for sure, right? Subprime mortgage and things like that, doesn't go on as much, but we still see the macro events that are playing out right now, right? Bank of England just had to start printing money. And they said, look, you guys got three days to fix this because we're shutting the printers off. We're gonna stop buying bonds, essentially. And who knows what's gonna happen there? We see that the inflation rate, hopefully is cool a little bit, not for sure, but there's some problems about. And then of course, we see an energy crisis in the UK and the things that are going on over there, also with Ukraine and the war, which causes uncertainty in the market. So I'm not saying that this is going to happen perfectly. I'm just saying there is potentially trouble afoot. So here's the good news. The good news is this, I've talked about this before on the channel. And there's a reason why right now, I'm not freaking out. I wouldn't only change the voice, the tone, it's the same thing, just over and over again. Same thing to me, over and over again. I know some of you are a little bit worried and I understand why, but we knew it wasn't gonna be easy. We knew it was gonna be a tough ride. We knew we had to get through this to get to the promised land of the next bull market. So are you really surprised? And if you are, it's okay, just stick around because nothing really surprises me these days. Here's the thing. If we take a look here at the recessions. Recessions last 12, 18 months, I'm around there, right? But you have to look in between. This is all economic boom right here. So after that dot com crash, and not too bad, so actually right around here, dot com crash, excuse me. Economic boom, then the great recession, big economic boom, then the black swan event, coronavirus, economic boom, boom, boom, boom, boom, boom, right? And how long? So like 12, 18 months, right? Let's just say 18 months. Maybe it extends into two years, okay? So I think we're, there is recessionary tones right now. So let's just say that they don't call it until next year, 2023. Well, how long? If the last two years, that's okay. Because look, it's amazing how everything just kind of lines up like we just talked about. The bottom of the market took about 18 months. Recessions last about 18 months. So for all these time frames in two years, roughly, this is what I see. Four year cycles, I think are still on play. Could work out, maybe not, but it's amazing how if you overlay these charts, they're starting to really line up. So the first halving of Bitcoin was in 2012, and then we hit an all-time high in 2013. Then there was a dip and a reset. Same thing happened in 2016, Bitcoin halving at an all-time high in 2017, then a dip and a reset, and it happened again. In 2020, we had a Bitcoin halving. Then in 2021, we had an all-time high. I personally thought that we would have some extended cycles and we'd see a big rally in 2022, but I was wrong. And the four year cycle was still correct. And we're seeing a pretty big dip, and I think we're gonna go lower to a reset. I could be wrong. But what does that mean? Well, let's say the recession starts in 2023. Well, that year is gone. Just time to accumulate, sit around, maybe get a side hustle, a nice gig, do some things while you're buying up some cheap, whatever you're buying, and it happens again in 2024. Well, let's say it takes 18 months. We'll not put us in the middle of 2024. Let's say it takes 24 months. That would put us to the end of 2024. But what happens right after that? All the time I dip reset. But who cares? Let's say I'm totally wrong. Let's just say that this recession goes three years. Okay, well, it goes three years. For me to go through three years of what we've already gone through is not a big deal. Two years, three years, whatever. Gives me more opportunity to do the things I'm doing, which is following my rules. And the rules are very simple. They're right below me. These are my rules. You don't have to follow them. I don't invest more than I can afford to lose because I think it's potentially all gone. So I feel it in my mind that it's all gone. Well, I won't invest more than I can afford to lose because there's major upside, I think, in this market. Everything's a scam until pretty otherwise, 100% scams. I don't leave anything on exchanges anymore. At least I try not to. I get lazy sometimes. I don't use leverage and I take profits along the way. So if I got three years to do these things and I do what's called dollar cost averaging and right now, just to be crystal clear, I'm still dollar cost averaging. I'm just not dollar cost averaging as much as I used to. So I think there's more downside. But like I've said before, I'm not a genius. I don't have a crystal ball. And I don't know if we are, all these things are gonna hit. So I continue to dollar cost average, a fraction of what I usually would spend. And unlike some people, Ben and the Cryptoverse, I still buy alts. Cause again, I don't know, but I'm what I call micro DCing. And that's the good news. And then also, if you're looking for just some other good things that are happening, look behind the scenes. Did you know, and people are gonna talk about this today, BNY Mellon is starting crypto custody service. First of all, who's BNY Mellon? It's the oldest bank in the US and they have 43 trillion assets under custody and almost 2 trillion assets under management. And this goes in line with the black rock, the mass mutuals, the fidelities who have trillions of assets under management getting into crypto as well. And when is the good time to get into crypto or any investment when it's really super low so you can scoop it up and everybody's scared, S-less. They don't want to invest. So this is what's going on. BNY Mellon starts Cropsey service. It's not a big story. BNY Mellon will now be able to provide fund managers with storage of the keys necessary to access and move around their Bitcoin, Neether, as well as the other traditional bookkeeping functions. And I think that fund managers, institutions, they're gonna get more into Bitcoin and Neither because I think Gary's gonna not classify those as securities. And that's gonna be the big headache. But I could be wrong. And that's what we got. So look, that's it for today. And, oh, a little bit long, sorry about that. But that's how I see it. I know like there's some scary times ahead. I got that, I know. But to me, this is just like a repeat of 2018, 19 and 20 just happening again. And here we go. I could be wrong on the time frames. Maybe it takes a little longer, maybe it's a little bit less. But I'll still be here for the long haul. Cause I think there's a massive asymmetrical upside to crypto as opposed to traditional markets. I'm not a financial advisor. And this is just things that I do. So let me just think about that in the comments section. Now, if you've got time to stick around, great. We'll do a little Q and A. I'll answer all your burning questions, the best of my abilities. And we'll go from there. If you gotta take off, take off. I appreciate you stopping by and hanging with me for 18 minutes. That was pretty cool. But that is it. So we'll do the Q and A. And also, so everybody knows, I made a promise yesterday I was gonna do more staking videos about how to stake. Cause I mean, the crypto that you have is just sitting there. You might as well stake it. And you might as well do a safe version of that. So I wanna tell you how to do those things that I'm doing. But that's it. All right, now let's get into the little Q and A and we'll go from there. Let's see.