 If you played NASCAR or DFS last week in Garlington and things did not go well for you, don't worry. You can chalk that up as being practiced because things on Saturday night at Richmond are going to be very, very similar, similar roster construction, similar strategies, similar data to emphasize, similar, a lot of stuff. And it means we can just, you know, if you didn't do well last week, write it off, move on to this week and recycle everything and run it back up once again. It's going to be a very similar discussion here this week. Welcome on into the Heat Check Fantasy podcast powered by NumberFire. That's right here on the FanDual Podcast Network in NumberFire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com. Here to break down Saturday nights, Federated Auto Parts 400. That is at Richmond. Again, it is on Saturday night. So fill out those lines in advance. If you are a procrastinator, do it today. Do it early Saturday. Make sure you get them done before Saturday at 7.30 when lock occurs for this. Right, so we're going to talk about strategies. We're going to talk about driver selection. My favorite guys in each salary tier and much more. But first, a quick reminder, we have a lot of stuff here on the NumberFire Daily Fantasy podcast feed for this week. MLB Podcasts today is posted. But more importantly, NFL Week 1, Preview Podcasts. Myself and Brandon Gadoula was posted yesterday, breaking down our favorite options for FanDuel in week number one on the main slate. It's a really fun slate. A lot of good shootouts we went through, how we're ranking the shootouts, our favorite guys in each position, how we're trying to stack these games. A pretty thin pool at quarterback for this week too. So I'm excited, man. Check it out wherever you get your podcast. Search for the NumberFire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. Hit subscribe, download that podcast. And also if you like what you hear, leave us a rating and review as well. Preview, or sorry, Recap Podcasts are coming up on Monday, 9 a.m. on YouTube, and up on the NumberFire Daily Fantasy podcast feed after that. Hey soccer fans, this season FanDuel and Captain Morgan are teaming up to give you a one-of-a-con soccer contest. Introducing Captain Morgan's Soccer Pickup, a weekly fantasy contest that is entirely free to play. The contest is simple. All you gotta do is make quick predictions for Saturday games this soccer season. You will earn points for each correct pick and compete for a chance to win up to $3,000 in prizes every single week. Head over to FanDuel, then to the Captain Morgan Soccer Pickup today. Must be 21 plus to participate for more details as FanDuel.com or download the FanDuel Fantasy app. Eligibility restrictions apply and don't forget to make your game day more delicious and sub in the captain. Let's take a look at the track breakdown for Richmond. And again, it's a very similar process to last week, which makes sense because they're very similar. We're changing the number of laps. It was 367 last week, it's forwarded this week. That's not a big difference. And it does mean we need a bigger emphasis on laps led, but it's still relatively even to what it was last week. We also still have the 16 playoff drivers starting at the front of the field once again. So it's the exact same setup, which means I'm going to take the exact same strategy. For those who were not here last week and listened to the podcast or did not play, that means we need at least at least, at least at least two playoff drivers in every lineup. And I'm likely getting the three in most of mine. Last week, it was just two playoff drivers in the perfect lineup, but those two were can't miss plays. If you didn't have both Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin, you were praying to mincash effectively. If you use three playoff drivers, you get three darts to correctly identify who leads all the laps. I will take three darts over two every single time. On top of that, that race was wild. Almost every playoff driver had big issues. And you don't expect that because Richmond is less volatile than Darlington. These are the best drivers for the most part in the sport this year. So in general, I think the default assumption should be that three playoff drivers will be the optimal lineup for this week. And we saw that here last year the playoff race of Richmond, the perfect lineup had three playoff drivers in that. Plus, I think that that's just the way you wanna play things anecdotally, data backs it up. It also helps that the playoff drivers, once again, just like last week, are the best drivers. The top 13 drivers in projected average running position for my model are playoff guys. 15 of the top 16 are playoff drivers. The one exception in there is Roth's Chastain. So if you want good finishes, which you do, because you get points for them, you should prioritize playoff drivers once again this week. And that's the key thing for me is making sure I have, again, probably three playoff drivers in each lineup. I could justify a fourth if I just load up on the mid-range ones too. So just keep that in mind as well. For the value plays, you will have to be a bit okay using guys starting in the middle of the pack. We don't have a lot of guys starting super far back who are viable. Only one driver in the top 20 drivers in my model is starting outside of the top 25. That is Matt DiBenedetto back in 28th. So things are not gonna be as back heavy as they were last week. We had some guys in the 30s last week who were viable. That's not the case this week. And that's fine. I'm just giving you a heads up that lineups won't be as comfortable this week as they were to fill out last week because we're not gonna have as many obvious massive place differential guys as we had then. As far as what data to emphasize, I do think last week's race is super relevant because although Richmond and Doenton are very different tracks, they're both using the same rules package, 750 horsepower package. They both feature heavy tire fall off and that's a good amount of overlap. I would prioritize the first Richmond race first because it's a very unique track with a just weird turns, kind of hard to conquer. We do see a lot of drivers struggle at this specific track. And I think that you look at Richmond first, look at other short flat tracks after that, Martinsville, Phoenix, you got New Hampshire in there too, but Darlington does matter. The samples I'll be digging into most are what drivers have done on short flat tracks or what they've done on either flat tracks or those with heavy tire fall off. So the only difference is between the two splits is that the one looks at just Richmond, New Hampshire, Martinsville and Phoenix, whereas the other one adds in Nashville because it's flatter and then Darlington too because it has heavy tire fall off. So it's a blend of the two Richmond is, it's flat, it has heavy tire fall off, so I'm okay putting those in a blender and see what that spits out. So to recap, you need at least two playoff drivers in every lineup and I want at least three. If you don't know who the playoff drivers are, then the driver is starting the top 16 in the running order for this week. I again want three of them in almost every lineup. I need to be okay using value play starting in the middle of the pack. We're not gonna get a lot of massive place differential guys in this race. We'll talk about two guys starting outside of the top 25. I think they're pretty relevant, but they're not necessarily like, one of them's not a core core play. Other one could be cash gain viable, but and then finally lean on a blend of short slash flat tracks and Darlington and Nashville to get a read on who will do well for this week. Once we do all that and consider all of those factors, let's decide who is, are the top drivers for this week on FanDuel, starting off with the elite tier that is Martin Truex Jr at $14,000. Third Joey Logano at 12.5. I think the two highest salary guys here, those are Truex and Denny Hamlin are the most likely winners. At least they are based on my simulations. I wanna have a lot of both. Hamlin has a slight edge in my simulations, but I'd personally rank Truex a hair higher. I just like Truex's overall form on similar tracks more. He might have won Darlington last week, despite tons of problems that he not gotten caught speeding on Pit Road. He led 107 laps in the first Richmond race. He also swept both races here back in 2019. So Truex is my number one. Hamlin is number two, and I like him a bit more as a win bet just because the number is longer. He's seven to one versus Truex at plus 550. So I do like Hamlin more as a win bet like Truex more in DFS. Hamlin led 207 laps here in the spring, finished second there. I think these two guys are virtually even. I want my exposures to them to be even, but I'll put Truex a hair higher if I had to rank the two. Kyle Busch is starting 15th. I think he's more a cash game play than a tournament play, and I'm fine not getting there in cash as well. He'll get placed differential points. He will finish better than 15th. I just don't like the win upside in Bush, and that's a lot of salary to pay for just placed differential points in a longer race. Bush has led just 33 laps in this package this year. He finished eighth in the first Richmond race with a ninth place, our running position. So I know, I can tell you right now, I will be underweight on Kyle Busch in tournaments. I can guarantee you that right now just because I just don't think the win upside is all that great. So I'll be underweight in tournaments. I'm probably not gonna get there in cash. I think he's a cash game option, but I'm probably not gonna get there personally just because I wanna get to Hamlin and Truex and if I go Bush as well, it's a lot of salary. So I'll be underweight. We'll see what happens with Bush there. This tier to me is ranked Truex one, Hamlin two, Lugano three, Kyle Busch four. I do like Lugano and I'll have him as lap leader often. I think the fall off after him to this next year is decent. So I just like Lugano, just not as high on him as Truex and Hamlin. The second tier is Kyle Larson at 12,000 through Christopher Bell at 10,000. And we're getting good salaries on Larson and Chase Elliott here. It's not their best track though. Now Larson is a former winner here so he can't get the job done, but since that win his finishes have been 7th, 7th, 37th, 6th and 18th, his best average running position on a short flat track this year is 8th in New Hampshire. So he could obviously win this race. I think I have him 5th in projected win odds in my simulations. That might be too low. Either way, he's there. But he is, you know, it's not a Larson track. He, you know, he's not some massive bargain. I understand where his salary is. I understand he could win. I know that being low on Larson is dangerous, but like, you know, whatever, we'll see what happens. Elliott has led just 36 laps at this track in his career. He was 12th here in the spring. He had a 12th place, average running position. I think both these guys are under salary. Larson and Elliott are, cause they've got great upside and stuff like that, but I'm not gonna rank them first in this tier. The guys I really like here are Kevin Harvick and Christopher Bell. Harvick is 11,000. This is the third most favorable my model has viewed Harvick the entire year. It was higher on him last week at Darlington. We did lead 20 laps there, finished fifth, despite some issues during the race. So I think that Harvick can win. And I like him at $11,000. And I haven't said that a lot this year for Harvick. I've been a lot lower on him than consensus, but I'm okay. Actually taken some swipes at Harvick for this week. Bell just 10,000 for him. This is the most favorably my model has viewed him the entire year. It's because he has been great on short flat tracks. He's had an average driving position of ninth, eighth, 11th, and seventh at those tracks. He has two top fives, one of those was in Richmond. And I like him a lot. Harvick has a better win odds in my simulations, but I like both as potentially lower salaried ways to get some laps lead, maybe get a top five, maybe potentially a win. So I'm gonna rank this to your Harvick one, Bell two, Larson three, Elliot four, Brad Keselowski's five. I just don't think he's gonna be doing a whole lot of his work for Penske the rest of this year. I think the writing's on the wall with him moving to Rosh Fenway next year, I feel like he's probably just toast. So I'm okay being lower on Keselowski the rest of the way. The mid-range is William Byron at $9,800. So whilst Dylan $8,500, this is, I think if you wanna get exposure to Hendrick, this might be the place you could do so via Byron and Bowman. Those two guys are starting 14th and 12th, respectively. Bowman is $9,700, but he won this race back in the spring. He had an eighth place average driving position in that race, so it was a fluke-ish win, but he's gonna track the heavy tire falloff. It was a fluke in that you don't expect him to win that race, but it was not a fluke in that he wasn't running well before that. So Bowman's good. Byron has slipped recently, but good in Martinsville earlier in the year. He ran well in Richmond and Phoenix. The form is a bit concerning and he doesn't have the highest upside. So I will rank Bowman higher between the two, but I am okay with both. Eric Elmeroll is starting ninth and he might be a pivot off the Hendrick guys if they wind up catching a lot of popularity this week. Elmerola won New Hampshire. Obviously he can run well on the short flat tracks. He was sixth here in the spring, fourth in Nashville. That's a flat track as well. My model actually views Elmerola similarly to Bowman and Byron. So if those two guys are tracking a popular, I'll pivot down to Elmerola. I think he's very worthy of that. Finally, Austin Dillon could get placed differential in this tier. He's starting 19th and was great here last year. He was also good here in the spring. So I don't mind him in the mid-range, but I do like the playoff guys more. So I'll rank this tier, Bowman one, Byron two, Elmerola three, Austin Dillon four, Kurt Busch five, Ryan Blaney six, Bush and Blaney, starting closer to the front. Blaney's really, really bad here. It's a concern. I love Ryan Blaney. This is not the week. Next week we'll be on Blaney. Not this week, at least for me. The value plays are Ross Chastain in the $8,300 through Chris Buscher at $6,500. And obviously going right back to Chastain this week. He was like 10% in tournaments last week, which blew my mind. He was a great play there. He is a great play here once again. He has a top 10 average running position in three straight races in this package. He finished top five and two of those could have won last week, could have won Nashville. So load up on Chastain again. I know he'll be more popular this week, but I don't care. Do it again. Just keep on running it back. Matt DiBenedetto starting 28th. He's the one big place differential guy in the field. He hasn't sealed the deal much this year, which is why he's looking for a new ride next year. But he was ninth in the first Richmond race. He was also 11th in New Hampshire recently. I think he is a great cash game play and he is a good tournament option. Those that were choices intentional. Great for cash games. Good for tournaments for DiBenedetto. Among the other guys, I weirdly like Ricky Stenhouse Jr., which is weird because a lot of the old dirt guys struggle at Richmond. That's why I can be lower on Larson. Blaine, he's not a dirt guy, but his dad was. So maybe that's an overlap there. Stenhouse did finish fourth year back in 2017. He hasn't done much since then, but he hasn't been awful. He was sixth in Nashville, 12th in Phoenix. He's $7,000 and starting 23rd. I'm gonna be there. I didn't expect to, but I will. My number's like him. So I'll guess I'll go Stenhouse and see what happens. Didn't, again, expect this, but whatever. I guess it's fine. I'm gonna rank this tier the same as last week where DiBenedetto is one for cash. Chastain is one for tournaments. Then he flip-flopped them in the opposing formats. They're the top two guys in this tier, no matter the format, but just prefer Chastain for tournaments, DiBenedetto for cash. Then it's Tyler Redick, three, even though he's another guy who doesn't fit the archetype of this track, another dirt guy historically, but he's a playoff guy. Stenhouse, five, Bush or six. Stenhouse I'll probably have more of than Redick just because of the salaries lower, but I think that maybe it's stupid to go Stenhouse, but like whatever, I've done stupid stuff in the past. It's been fine. The punty tier is Daniel Suarez, it's $6,300 on down. The guy down here, my model likes the most is Eric Jones and I have a hard time disagreeing. This is even with a pretty heavy penalty for him for his equipment. Equipment matters to Richmond too. And it does penalize Jones a lot for that. I just think that there's enough here to like him. He's starting 31st. So there is plenty of place differential upside. He can run this track. He actually had a top five here a couple of years ago, got wiped out when he failed inspection after the race. So technically not a top five finish, but he finished top five. He hasn't been great in this package. He's just one finish better than 18th and that one better finish came on dirt. But I believe in talent and Jones is starting 31st. He's $5,000. I'll take some swipes. Why not? I'm gonna take some swipes that Ryan Newman too. I don't feel good about it and I don't like it, but he was fifth at Bristol, 10th in the first Garlington race, 13th at Nashville, 14th last week. So like, I guess he's starting 24th at $5,500. Fine, whatever. If I've got to say some sour, I guess I'll go some Newman. Daniel Suarez also an option at $63. So I like a bit more than Newman. He had three top 10 finishes in this package this year. One was on the dirt, but he was 16th at the first Richmond race, 9th at Dover, 7th at Nashville, 13th last week. So I'd rank this tier, Jones won Suarez too because I like the upside in Suarez more than Newmans. Newman is three. All three of those guys are viable plays and I will get some Cori LaJoy at $4,000 too, just in case last week's race with massive speed wasn't a total fluke. LaJoy here back in the spring, 22nd place average running position been pretty good in the short flat track. So I'll get to some LaJoy. I'll see what happens. It's not gonna be a lot. I prefer Jones and I prefer Suarez over him but I'll get some LaJoy. Let's see what happens. Why not? We'll have some fun and take some swipes down there. Let's finish up here the win picks. I'm gonna go against what my simulations say and pick Martin Truex Jr to win this race. I know they have Hamlin slightly higher but like I just feel better about Truex. He looked great last week. I know the finish wasn't there but like he had speed man and I think that's gonna pan out eventually. So I'll go Truex for the win pick above 10,000. The value play, I kind of wanna cheat. So this is one of those, my podcast, my rules kind of things. I usually go below 10,000. I'm gonna go right at 10,000 this week and pick Christopher Bell. Bell is 4.5% to win my simulations. I would take the over on that personally. His win odds, his implied odds are 5.3% based on betting odds. I think that's a little bit better. So I think Bell's a talented driver who has run well on this track type. He is, I think he's pretty good. So I'm gonna go Christopher Bell, my win pick below or at 10,000 or lower. If you need me to go in below it, technically I'd be on Elmerola as that top option but I wanna go Christopher Bell because again, my podcast, my rules, the win picks this week, Truex and Bell, unless you disagree with me on my criteria then you can go Elmerola for the win pick. That's gonna wrap up things for today here on the heat check fantasy podcast. Again, lock is at 730 on Saturday. So no conflict between NFL and NASCAR this week. That's a good thing. Make sure you get your lineups in on Saturday though to get them all set before lock at 730 P.M. Easter. If you've got questions for me, I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. Also make sure you follow the FanDual Podcast Network at FanDual Podcast once again. NFL Week 1 preview podcast already posted. Go check that out and check out MLB Podcast as well by searching for the number five or daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts. Thank you all very much for tuning in. Good luck to you on Saturday night. Enjoy the racing, go win some money. We'll talk to you once again next week for the Bristol Night Race. Can't be more excited for that. We'll talk to you then. This has been the heat check fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire.