 Hello and welcome to CMC Markets in this quick look at the week beginning the 10th of April when it's holiday shortened week this week with Easter coming up and it's very difficult to make a case for the direction of stock markets at this point in time simply because over the past few days they haven't really gone anywhere. That's no better borne out by this chart that we're looking at right now, the FTSE solid support at 72.45 and fairly decent resistance just below 7400 if anything. It looks to me as if it could potentially be forming a little bit of a topping formation with a neckline at 72.45. As of recording of this video we don't know the outcome of the Trump G meeting in Amaralago in Florida and we also don't know what the non-farm payrolls numbers were on Friday but if the ADP numbers were any guide they're probably going to be decent numbers and that really does beg to question in the wake of the recent FOMC minutes as to how much slack there is in the US labor market. If you're to believe Neil Kashkari of the Minneapolis Fed there does appear to be a significant amount of slack in it because even though jobless claims are at significantly low levels of around 234,000, the payrolls data continues to average well above 200,000 not only on the ADP but also on non-farms at the moment and with the unemployment rate at 4.7 percent we need to keep a very close eye on the participation rate to see whether or not we've got workers coming back into the workforce and really I think it's on that note that we're going to be looking ahead to this week beginning the 10th of April because ultimately the focus shifts back to the United Kingdom the UK the inflation data here in the UK CPI for March unemployment for the three months to February and average earnings for the three months to February and if the inflation numbers in the Eurozone are any significant guide then there is a tendency to perhaps think that maybe we're getting a little bit of a topping out pattern starting to come in the inflation numbers and we'll certainly get a further indication of that with the Chinese CPI and PPI numbers which are all also due out the week beginning the 10th of January we've all 10th of January 10th of April even we've also got the start of US earning season bank earning season in particular JP Morgan Wells Fargo and Citigroup so be going to be keeping an eye on them certainly with respect to what US fiscal policy could be doing US Federal Reserve rate policy what the outlook is for that and obviously the first call to how well US banks have done relative to the solid end that we saw in Q4 but for the purposes of this video we're going to be focusing on sterling and the fact that we still don't know whether or not the pound is going to push lower against the dollar or push higher my biases for the pound to push higher so in that context I think what we really need to see is the inflation numbers sort of whole steady around about current levels now expectations for March CPI are for the inflation numbers to continue to come in around about that 2% level and they were at 2.3% in February but if we do get a little bit of a slowdown in the same way that we got a slowdown in EU CPI then maybe that could actually start to weigh on the pound nonetheless I think average earnings is probably more important than inflation and the average earnings numbers that we saw last month also came in around about that 2.3% so CPI was at 2.3% average earnings was at 2.3% so essentially there was no net wage growth going forward we've also got to keep an eye on the unemployment numbers they're going to be very very key in the context of whether or not there is a tight labor market here in the UK if they stay at their current levels of 4.7% then you would expect to see wage growth continue to hold steady or even edge higher if wage growth edges higher then I think that's likely to have more an effect on sterling than actually a slightly weaker CPI number and let's not forget that retail prices come in our trending at a much higher rate of around about 3.5% so let's look at the key levels on the cable in the context of the discussion that we're having now and obviously a lot will depend on the payrolls numbers that we saw out on Friday and the key support level comes in on the cable for me around about $123.5, $123.80 currently finding support around about the low $124s $124.20 as we as recognized by these two moving averages here the 50 and the 100 day we have a try and get a consolidation forming out my bias is that we potentially could well trend higher break through the 200 day moving average and head back towards that 130 level obviously a move back below $123.50 will negate that and keep us within the triangle that we've been consolidating in over the course of most part of this year so also keeping an eye out on the China data later this week in particular China trade and we did see a sharp rise in imports in February which was a significant surprise and it's very very sharp drop in exports and I think we could well see that effect get reversed given the fact that we saw the Chinese economy post a trade deficit I think that's potentially a one-off because of the effects of China's Chinese New Year but in particular I'll be looking at Chinese PPI numbers they came in at 7.8% last month I would expect or hope to see them start to come down as inflationary pressures plateau in the wake of the topping out or the recent topping out in the oil price so that's it for this week on that note may I wish you all a happy Easter and I will speak to you all in after Easter when we return after the 18th of April